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Crypto Expert Predicts A Narrative Shift Post-Bitcoin Halving

Crypto expert Michaël van de Poppe has provided insights into what to expect when the Bitcoin halving occurs on April 19. As part of his analysis, van de Poppe suggested that the attention might shift from Bitcoin once the event occurs. 

A Narrative Shift To Occur Post-Halving

Van de Poppe mentioned in an X (formerly Twitter) post that narratives will change as the halving event approaches but failed to specify what the new narrative will be when this happens. However, in a previous X post, the crypto expert laid out some of his expectations for the crypto market going forward, which included what he expected the new narrative to be. 

According to Van de Poppe, the narrative will shift to Ethereum (ETH) and projects that are focused on Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) and Real World Assets (RWA). These sectors, along with Artificial Intelligence (AI) and meme coins, have been projected to be among the leading narratives in this bull run. 

Meanwhile, the crypto expert, who has so far continued to state that altcoins are greatly undervalued, expects these crypto tokens to bounce “in their Bitcoin pairs” once the hype around the halving is over. Furthermore, Van de Poppe mentioned that altcoins will show bullish strength from this second quarter until the summer after which a correction will come in the third quarter of the year.

Before now, the crypto expert listed ten altcoins he believes could make the most price gains when the altcoin season begins in full force. These tokens include Chainlink (LINK), Celestia (TIA), Arbitrum (ARB), Polkadot (DOT), Cosmos (ATOM), DYDX (DYDX), WooNetwork (WOO), Sei (SEI), Skale Network (SKL), and Covalent (CQT). 

Expectations For Bitcoin

In the short term, Van de Poppe expects Bitcoin to experience a relief bounce to around $70,000. However, he didn’t sound so bullish about the flagship crypto’s long-term trajectory, predicting that Bitcoin will face a period of consolidation that he doesn’t expect to change in the “coming months.”

In another X post, he said, “It’s a waiting game on Bitcoin currently, as momentum is relatively gone.” He added that he expects Bitcoin to continue “the retracement and consolidation,” while altcoins will bounce up in their BTC pairs during this period. 

This predicted consolidation period looks to be the re-accumulation phase in the stages of Bitcoin halving, which crypto analyst Rekt Capital once referred to. Elaborating on what this period is like, Rekt Capital stated back then that many investors get “shaken out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving.”

Once this period is over, Bitcoin is expected to make its “parabolic uptrend,” a phase that Rekt Capital noted historically lasts just over a year. In line with this, it is worth noting that most of Bitcoin’s price gains usually come between six months to a year after the Bitcoin halving has occurred. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin Halving Could Catalyzed $100,000 Price Surge: Bitwise CEO

As the cryptocurrency community excitedly awaits the impending Bitcoin halving, Bitwise Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Hunter Horsley has weighed in on its impact on BTC, predicting that the event could potentially propel prices to $100,000 or even higher.

Horsley expressed his optimistic outlook toward the upcoming Bitcoin Halving on the X (formerly Twitter) platform. Every four years, the Halving has historically been linked to greater price increases, and Horsley’s upbeat view indicates that this cycle might be no different from the others.

Upcoming Bitcoin Halving Is Being Underestimated

According to the CEO, the much-anticipated event is presently being significantly underestimated in the crypto space. He claims that the market has never priced in it in the past, and it will not be priced in this time either, expressing his confidence toward the occasion.

Horsley highlighted the historical relevance and transformative implications of these occurrences, drawing comparisons with past Halvings and citing the notable profits that investors achieved in 2020, 2016, and 2012. He stated that following months of debate by investors on whether the previous three halvings were priced in, Bitcoin grew by 5.4x, 2.8x, and 88x, respectively.

Given the past price developments, the Bitwise CEO anticipates this Halving to serve as a catalyst for the $100,000 target for BTC. Horsley’s prediction seems very reasonable since the figure is just about a 47% increase from the digital asset’s current price.

It is worth noting that the opinions of fully deployed current holders are not used to measure the impact of the Halving. Rather, it depends on whether there will be a significant and sustained increase in demand in addition to the daily decrease in the supply of natural sellers. 

In all, the Bitwise CEO foresees a steady growth in demand along with the conditions for a substantial Halving event this year. As investors prepare for the possible impact of this historic occasion on Bitcoin’s price trajectory, this audacious prognosis highlights the possibility of massive price increases not only in BTC but the entire cryptocurrency market.

BTC Move Into No Man’s Land

With the Halving less than 24 hours away, Cold Blooded Shiller, a cryptocurrency analyst, has reported that Bitcoin has entered No Man’s Land. “There are some interesting discussion points on BTC right now, but we have just entered No Man’s Land,” he stated.

According to Shiller, until one of the two green zones highlighted in his chart is contacted, he believes the price action is far more unpredictable. Nonetheless, there are some interesting links here for former price action and Relative Strength Index (RSI).

The analyst claimed the RSI is currently resetting on the Higher Time Frame (HTF), and the last time it occurred was back in January, following a similar breakdown from consolidation seen now.

While Shiller does not think the results will be the same this time, it’s quite reasonable if no recovery happens due to this degree of loss.

Bitcoin

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Bitcoin Miners Always Sell Into Halvings, Is This Time Any Different?

On-chain data shows Bitcoin miners have always sold as Halvings have occurred. With the next one just around the corner, how are miners behaving this time?

Next Bitcoin Halving Is Less Than Two Days Away Now

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst discussed Bitcoin miners’ behavior in the build-up to the next Halving.

The “Halving” is a periodic event on the Bitcoin network where the cryptocurrency’s block rewards (the compensation miners receive for solving blocks) are permanently slashed in half.

This event occurs approximately every four years, and according to NiceHash’s countdown, the next one will occur in just over 32 hours.

Bitcoin Halving

Bitcoin miners earn revenue from two sources: transaction fees and block rewards. Historically, the former has been quite low on the BTC network, so the miners primarily depend on the latter to pay off their running costs.

Since the block rewards are cut in half during Halvings, these events naturally deal a significant blow to the miner’s revenues. As such, it’s not surprising that the miners have generally shown a reaction to the event in the past cycles.

“One of the common dynamics that occur in every cycle of cutting the issuance of new BTC is the significant selling pressure exerted by miners,” says the quant. One way to gauge the degree of selling pressure coming from these chain validators is via the Miner to Exchange Flow metric.

This indicator tracks the total amount of Bitcoin moving from miner-associated addresses to wallets connected to centralized exchanges. As miners usually deposit Bitcoin to these platforms for selling, this flow can provide hints about their selling behavior.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day moving average (MA) BTC Miner to Exchange Flow over the last few years:

Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Flow

As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day MA Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Flow had surged to high levels in the 2020 Halving event, implying that this group had potentially been participating in a selloff.

This selling push may have come from the miners planning to exit, given the sharp revenue reduction that was set to occur. The graph, though, clearly shows that no such selling pressure has emerged this time around despite the event being just around the corner.

So, what’s going on here? The analyst suggests that the Bitcoin miners may have already completed the latest round of selling in advance (as the exchange inflows from the cohort did spike in February). If this is true, the quant thinks this could benefit the market in the short term.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has continued to move sideways inside a range recently, as its price is still trading around $63,500.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Bitcoin: Expect The Unexpected – Analyst Sees Unconventional Bull Run Post-Halving

Bitcoin has been moving lower ahead of the Halving event, going against analysts’ expectations. This price action has been unexpected and shows how the coin tends to go against predictions, basically charting its path. 

Bitcoin Breaking The Mold

In light of Bitcoin’s randomness, especially in the past few months following the approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), one analyst expects the coin to continue defying expectations by clocking in a bull run that defies historical trends.

4-year simple moving average for Bitcoin | Source: Analyst on X

The analyst cites two recent instances where Bitcoin defied expectations to justify this bullish outlook. First, following the rapid expansion in the 2020 to 2021 bull run that saw Bitcoin soar from less than $10,000 to fresh all-time highs of around $70,000, prices sharply contracted in 2022. 

Then, the United States Federal Reserve shifted its monetary policy to curb raging inflation by rapidly increasing interest rates. Following this and other market-related events, Bitcoin prices dipped below the all-time high of the previous cycle of $20,000.

By November 2022, prices fell to as low as $15,000, accelerated by the collapse of FTX. This retest of previous highs and fall below $20,000 had never happened before. 

Another anomaly occurred last month. For the first time, Bitcoin prices expanded and broke the previous all-time highs of around $70,000 before the Halving event. As Bitcoin’s past price action shows, prices only rally to fresh all-time highs after Halving.

However, this changed when BTC soared to $73,800, possibly paving the way for bulls to join in and push the coin back to unchartered territory post-Halving. 

Is BTC Ready For A Multi-Year Rally?

With this in mind, the analyst believes Bitcoin will continue uniquely shaping its path, deviating from history. For instance, the analyst thinks BTC will outperform altcoins in the coming months.

The analyst adds that increased regulatory scrutiny following high-profile collapses like FTX and Luna could dampen altcoin enthusiasm. 

The coin will ride on the fact that it is the only one with an ETF from the United States SEC receiving investments. As a result of this capital injection, Bitcoin will likely register a multi-year “up only” phase, just like gold did once its ETF was approved.

Bitcoin price trending sideways on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

Prices remain depressed ahead of this. Though prices are increasing at spot rates, the coin is within a bear formation. Currently, BTC has local resistance at around $65,000.

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Bitcoin Could Drop To $52,000 If Price Breaks Below This Mark – CryptoQuant

Amidst the ongoing fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, the price of Bitcoin has surged by 1.7% in the past 24 hours, hovering above the $62,000 mark.

However, recent warnings from CryptoQuant, a leading crypto analytics platform, suggest that Bitcoin could face a significant downturn to $52,000 if specific key levels are violated.

This cautionary note comes amidst growing uncertainty in the Bitcoin derivatives market, with derivative traders showing unprecedented caution compared to previous halving cycles.

Bitcoin Risky Level

CryptoQuant’s analysis highlights declining open interest and funding rates in the Bitcoin derivatives market, indicating a “cautious” stance among traders, particularly with the arrival of several institutional participants. CryptoQuant analyst Shiven Moodley noted:

At this halving, derivative traders exhibit far more caution than in previous instances. This season witnesses the entry of numerous new institutional players into the market.

According to the analyst, If Bitcoin’s price falls below the critical $60,000 support level, the top cryptocurrency could experience a notable correction to $52,000, signaling a potential short-term bearish trend.

However, the presence of institutional Bitcoin Spot ETFs may mitigate the severity of the decline by absorbing “excess supply from liquidations” around the $60,000 support zone.

Moodley stated:

If the price breaks below $60,000, we might witness a decline to $52,000 before a subsequent rise. However, given the significant dominance of institutional ETFs, I wouldn’t be surprised if they accumulate excess supply from liquidations near the short-term support level of $60,000.

Analysts Sound Alarm On BTC’s Fragile Position

Meanwhile, crypto trader and analyst Ali has further fuelled concerns by identifying a pivotal price level for Bitcoin. Ali’s analysis indicates that if Bitcoin drops to $50,500, over $15 billion in liquidations could occur on the Binance alone.

Such a significant liquidation event could exert immense pressure on the market, potentially leading to further price declines and heightened volatility.

This outlook echoes recent warnings from prominent analyst Crypto Rover, who has also cautioned about a potential liquidation event affecting short holders if Bitcoin climbs back to the crucial price mark of $71,600.

Despite these concerns, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. Crypto analyst Plan B, known for his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has made bullish predictions for Bitcoin’s future price movements.

According to Plan B, Bitcoin’s upcoming Halving event will serve as a central driver for price increases, with the cryptocurrency expected to surpass $100,000 this year and exceed $300,000 by 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Goldman Sachs On Bitcoin Halving: ‘It doesn’t Matter If It’s A Buy The Rumor, Sell The News Event’

Analysts at Goldman Sachs, a leading global banking and investment management firm, have offered valuable insights into the anticipated effects of the forthcoming Bitcoin halving, on the price of the cryptocurrency. They emphasize that while the Bitcoin halving is a noteworthy event, other major factors will likely exert greater influence on Bitcoin’s future value. 

Bitcoin Halving To Play Lesser Role In BTC’s Outlook

In a note to clients, Goldman Sach’s analysts have cautioned against reading too much into the past Bitcoin halving cycles and their impact on the cryptocurrency. Based on historical trends, the Bitcoin halving cycles tend to have a favorable effect on the value of Bitcoin, often triggering a bull run. 

The bank noted that whether the Bitcoin halving scheduled for April 20, becomes a “buy the rumor, sell the news event,” it would hold less significance for the cryptocurrency’s medium-term outlook.

They argue that the future performance of the pioneer cryptocurrency would be more heavily influenced by the supply and demand dynamics within the current market. Additionally, the analysts highlighted that the growing interest and demand for Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) combined with the self-reflexive nature of the crypto market would be the primary contributing factor to Bitcoin’s price action and future outlook. 

Sharing a similar perspective, analysts at CryptoQuant disclosed earlier in April that the 2024 Bitcoin halving was no longer a primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s bullish surge. They highlighted that factors such as increasing demand from large-scale investors and diminishing supply were now the key drivers of Bitcoin’s upward momentum.  

Analysts Warn Of Macroeconomic Influence On New Halving Cycle

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have predicted that macroeconomic factors such as inflation could have a significant influence on the upcoming Bitcoin halving event. 

“Caution should be taken against extrapolating the past cycles and the impact of halving, given the respective prevailing macro conditions,” Goldman Sachs analysts noted.

Unlike previous halving cycles, the present economic conditions display high inflationary pressures and interest rates, which could cause the 2024 Bitcoin halving cycle to diverge from historical patterns. In other words, the analysts have suggested that for Bitcoin’s historical halving bull runs to occur, macro conditions need to be supportive of investor risk-taking. 

Currently, the United States faces challenges with high inflation, while interest rates stand above 5%. These conditions may exert pressure on Bitcoin’s market dynamics. However, despite the prevailing circumstances, many see the digital currency as a formidable inflation hedge and a beacon of hope against escalating inflationary pressures.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin To $455,000: Expert Echoes Previous Halving Pattern

In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, Marcel Knobloch also known as Collin Brown, a crypto expert has offered an audacious prediction for Bitcoin, foreseeing a significant rally to unprecedented heights post-BTC Halving event scheduled to take happen this month.

Bitcoin Poised For Massive Growth Post-Halving

According to Collin Brown, the fourth mining reward Halving for Bitcoin will take place in the next 48 hours. This event will cut down the current 6.25 BTC per block output to 3.125 BTC per block.

Brown noted that following the last Halving event, Bitcoin witnessed over 700% growth, bringing the crypto asset to its previous all-time high of $69,000 achieved at the peak of the 2021 bull cycle. Given the impact of the previous Halving, the crypto expert has predicted the coin will reach $455,000 should BTC mirror this pattern.

The post read:

In just forty-eight hours, Bitcoin’s fourth mining reward halving will occur. This quadrennial occurrence will slash the per-block emission of BTC to 3.125 BTC from the current 6.25 BTC. After the last halving, Bitcoin prices surged 700%, which would now bring $455,000.

It is worth noting that since the cryptic developer of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, introduced the coin about 15 years ago, the Halving has been ingrained in the crypto’s program. This year’s event will happen when block 840,000 is created, which might increase BTC’s value by reducing supply.

Historically, the three previous halvings have caused the price of the digital asset to soar significantly, amassing substantial gains. Data shared by Brown shows that following the first halving event, Bitcoin saw a whopping 9,360% rise, topping out around $1,135 from $12.

However, it took the crypto asset approximately 371 days to reach the aforementioned figure after the Halving. Furthermore, the second halving, which occurred in 2016, drove Bitcoin’s price from $650 to $19,640, indicating an over 2,920% increase.

Meanwhile, the last instance secured a 700% rally, taking prices from $8,626 to the previous peak of $69,045. Primarily, it took BTC more than 500 days in the preceding two cycles to reach new records.

Considering the past trends, Brown’s forecast appears to be reasonable and possible. Should any of these trends reoccur, the crypto expert’s prediction might manifest in the following year.

BTC On The Downside

Collin Brown remains optimistic despite Bitcoin showing signs of weakness to retest its new all-time high of $73,000. Since reaching its new peak in mid-March, the value of BTC has plummeted by over 10%.

Today, the price of Bitcoin fell sharply, reaching a low of about $60,000 and reaching its lowest level since late February. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $62,916, down more than 10% over the past week. While its trading volume has increased by over 20%, its market cap is slightly down by 0.20% in the last day.

The decline in BTC’s price is considered to be triggered by recent geopolitical tensions or global turmoil. The conflict between Israel and Iran caused major sell-offs among investors, leading to a broader market downturn.

Bitcoin

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All Quiet On The Bitcoin ETF Front – Should You Be Paranoid?

The recent approval and launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs have brought about notable changes in market dynamics. Among the most significant players affected is Grayscale, a leading institution in the crypto space.

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Holdings Experience Decline

Grayscale, known for its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), held the highest BTC market capitalization among institutions. However, an in-depth analysis reveals a decline in its Bitcoin holdings over recent months.

From nearly 620,000 BTC in January, Grayscale’s holdings have dwindled to a little over 300,000 BTC at the time of reporting. This decline raises questions about the factors influencing institutional investment strategies in the crypto sector.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Witness Fluctuating Flows

Following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the market has witnessed fluctuating flows across various platforms. While certain ETFs have experienced significant volume, others have recorded zero flows, indicating a mixed response from investors. BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscale’s GBTC have been among the few to register notable flows, with both inflows and outflows observed in recent days.

A closer look at the data reveals consecutive outflows in Bitcoin spot ETFs over the past few days, reminiscent of similar trends observed in March. On the 15th and 16th of April, outflows amounted to nearly $27 million and $58 million, respectively.

Despite these outflows, analysts point out that such fluctuations are not uncommon in the ETF market and may not necessarily indicate product failure.

Analysis Of Flow Patterns Provides Insight

Examining specific flow patterns offers valuable insights into investor behavior and market sentiment. While Grayscale’s GBTC experienced consecutive outflows, BlackRock’s IBIT saw inflows on certain days. This variance underscores the diverse strategies adopted by investors in response to the evolving crypto landscape.

It’s important to note that zero inflows on certain days are considered normal for ETFs, according to analysts. They emphasized that such occurrences are commonplace across various ETFs and should not be interpreted as a sign of product failure. Instead, they reflect the ebb and flow of investor interest in a rapidly evolving market.

Future Outlook For Bitcoin ETFs

As Bitcoin ETFs continue to gain traction, the market is poised for further evolution. While some platforms may experience fluctuations in flows, the overall trajectory of institutional investment in the crypto sector remains optimistic.

The approval and launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs have sparked shifts in market dynamics, impacting institutions like Grayscale and prompting fluctuations in ETF flows. Despite the volatility, analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin ETFs and their role in shaping the future of finance.

Featured image from DataDrivenInvestor, chart from TradingView

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Pre-Halving Jitters: Bitcoin Price Briefly Slips Below $60,000

The Bitcoin price has recently experienced heightened volatility, causing the largest cryptocurrency in the market to briefly drop below the significant threshold of $60,000 for the first time since March 5. 

This price decrease comes just days before the highly anticipated Halving event scheduled for Friday. This event has traditionally been viewed as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin’s value due to its impact on token supply. 

However, market participants are questioning whether the Halving’s effects are already factored into the current market conditions, leading to extended bearish sentiment.

Long-Term Bullish Outlook Prevails

Bitcoin’s decline saw it plummet by 5% to $59,890, though it recovered some losses shortly afterward. Since reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 on March 14, the Bitcoin price has now retraced by approximately 18%. 

The downward trend extended to other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE), which also experienced slumps on Wednesday.

The impending Halving, a quadrennial code update in Bitcoin, has raised concerns among investors as to whether it will be a significant market-moving event or a non-event overshadowed by other factors, such as the ongoing discussions surrounding the Bitcoin ETF market, which has seen a significant decrease in terms of outflows.  

Nathanaël Cohen, co-founder of INDIGO Fund, noted that market participants are de-risking due to this uncertainty and the additional macro factor of tensions in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran, putting further pressure on risk assets.

The recent decline in Bitcoin’s price was further exacerbated by a wave of liquidations in long positions for digital assets. Last Friday alone, approximately $780 million worth of bullish crypto wagers were liquidated within 24 hours. 

Despite the recent market turbulence, some participants maintain a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Some see the recent liquidations and subsequent flushing out of leverage in the crypto market as a positive development. 

Ravi Doshi, head of markets at FalconX, reported increased buying of longer-dated call options on their derivatives desk, suggesting that clients anticipate higher prices in the latter half of the year.

Bitcoin Price Rebounds Above $61,000

Following the brief dip below the $60,000 mark, the Bitcoin price has rebounded, currently trading at $61,600. This recovery is viewed as a bullish sign, with the cryptocurrency’s macro uptrend structure remaining intact as long as price levels of $51,000 and $42,000 are maintained. 

Bitcoin price

The market is closely watching whether the theory suggesting that the Halving price catalyst is already factored into the current market conditions holds. Additionally, the performance of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States and their potential impact on driving the cryptocurrency’s price back to previous highs are of significant interest.

Furthermore, the recent approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF market in Hong Kong is expected to contribute to increased adoption of the leading cryptocurrency. Although some experts do not consider it as significant as the US ETF market, it is anticipated to generate a surge in price and further strengthen Bitcoin’s position.

Ultimately, the outcome of the Halving event, combined with the developments in both the US and Hong Kong ETF markets, remains uncertain. The ability of Bitcoin to regain its bullish momentum and drive increased demand will be closely monitored.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Historical Trends Show What To Expect For Bitcoin Price Following The Halving

The 2024 Bitcoin halving is only two days away, and there are already varying expectations of what might happen to the BTC price once the event is completed. One way to get an idea of how it could play out for the Bitcoin price, though, is through historical data and how the cryptocurrency has performed at times like these.

Bitcoin Price Trends For Previous Halvings

There have been three halvings so far since Bitcoin was first launched in 2009 and with each one, Bitcoin has demonstrated various reactions to the event. The first halving took place on November 28, 2012, the second happened on July 9, 2016, and the last one was on May 11, 2020.

For the purpose of this report, only the last two halving will be referenced given that adoption had began to climb at the time that these two happened. The 2016 halving happened when Bitcoin was trading around $650, but in the weeks following the halving, the BTC price would drop another 30%, reaching as low as $460 before climbing back up once again.

Bitcoin halving 2016

Then, during the 2020 halving, the BTC price was trending just under $10,000, and following the halving, would see a drop in price as well. However, this drop was not as significant as the 2016 drop, with the BTC price only falling around 15% during this time.

Bitcoin halving 2020

This has formed quite a trend with the halving, where the Bitcoin price falls after the event, which is expected to be bullish. Therefore, if this trend continues, then BTC could see a sharp drop in price despite the expectation that the halving will be bullish for price.

However, it is important to consider that subsequent halvings have seen a lower post-halving crash compared to their predecessors. So, if this holds this year, Bitcoin could still be looking at a crash but to a much lesser degree. For example, the 2020 post-halving crash was half of the 2016 post-halving crash, so holding this trend, the crash this time around could only be an around 7-8% crash.

BTC Deviates From Established Halving Trends

While the historical data does suggest where Bitcoin could be headed following the crash, it is also important to note that the digital asset has deviated from a number of pre-halving trends. One of these deviations is the fact that the Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high before the halving, something that has never happened before. This could suggest that there will be a complete deviation from these established trends, meaning that a crash may not follow the halving after all.

Another deviation is that the few weeks leading up to the last two Bitcoin halvings have been green. However, in 2024, the last three weeks leading up to the halving have been red as the BTC price has been in decline. This also lends credence to the fact that there could also be a deviation from its post-halving trends.

One thing to keep in mind though, is that the crypto market has always been uncertain and Bitcoin has a habit of doing what no one expected. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has seen a pull back from the extreme greed territory, but it continues to remain in greed, which means investors are still bullish. In this case, if Bitcoin were to do the opposite of what is expected, then it could follow the established trend and crash back down.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Crypto Exchanges Bitcoin Supply Can Only Last For 9 Months, ByBit Report

Cryptocurrency exchange and trading platform, Bybit has released a new report highlighting the impacts of the upcoming Bitcoin halving event on the supply dynamics of Bitcoin within exchanges in the crypto space. The crypto firm has provided valuable insights on how the halving event would enhance scarcity and considerably influence the price of BTC. 

Exchanges Set To Face Bitcoin Supply Crunch

On Tuesday, April 16, Bybit published a new report, providing a detailed analysis of the Bitcoin halving event set to take place this month. The crypto firm disclosed that the Bitcoin reserves within the world’s crypto exchanges have been depleting at a rapid pace, leaving only nine months of BTC supply left on exchanges. 

For a clearer perspective, Bybit explains that with just two million Bitcoin left in its total supply, a daily influx of $500 million into Spot Bitcoin ETFs would result in approximately 7,142 BTC leaving exchanges daily. This suggests that it would take only nine months to completely consume all of the remaining BTC reserves on exchanges. 

Bybit has stated that a major contributor to this supply squeeze would be the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which would reduce the cryptocurrency’s total supply by 50% by cutting Bitcoin miners’ rewards in half. 

The crypto exchange has also disclosed that after the halving event, the sell-side supply of BTC flowing into Centralized Exchanges (CEXs) will become grossly reduced. Additionally, Bitcoin’s “supply squeeze will ostensibly be worse.”

BTC To Become “Twice As Rare As Gold”

In its report, Bybit compared Bitcoin’s supply after the halving event with that of gold. The crypto exchange revealed that Bitcoin was steadily growing to become one of the safest investment choices, even for the most seasoned and sophisticated investors within the crypto space. 

According to the exchange, the Bitcoin halving event would significantly impact the cryptocurrency’s scarcity factor, making it an even rarer asset than gold. 

Basing this analysis on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio, Bybit disclosed that Bitcoin’s S2F ratio is around 56 currently, while gold’s ratio is 60. After the halving event this April, Bitcoin’s S2F ratio is projected to increase to 112. 

“Each Bitcoin halving sharpens the narrative of Bitcoin as not just a currency, but a scarce digital asset, akin to digital gold. This upcoming halving in 2024 will thrust BTC into an era of unprecedented scarcity, making it twice as rare as gold,” the Co-founder and CEO of Bybit, Ben Zhou stated. 

While highlighting the significance of Bitcoin’s rarity following the halving event, another report also disclosed that the price of Bitcoin would experience significant upward pressure post-halving. This suggests that BTC’S supply squeeze could potentially propel its price to new heights during this period. 

Furthermore, the report revealed that several crypto analysts predict that the post-halving increase in Bitcoin’s price would be less remarkable than the early pre-halving surge which saw the price of Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs of more than $73,000.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin Halving Hysteria: Will History Repeat Itself Or Are We Heading For A Market Meltdown?

Bitcoin stands at the forefront, with its upcoming halving event sparking excitement and uncertainty among investors. As the countdown to Bitcoin’s fourth halving narrows to roughly three days, market dynamics have taken a tumultuous turn, with significant implications for the digital asset’s price trajectory.

Deciphering BTC’s Halving Patterns: Insights Into Pre-Event Price Behaviour

While the Bitcoin market has been on a decline over the past week, A CryptoQuant analyst has recently highlighted a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s price dynamics observed before each halving cycle.

This pattern entails a significant price decline, a trend witnessed in previous halving events. For instance, during the second halving, Bitcoin experienced a price drop of 40.36%, plummeting to $465 before eventually surging to an all-time high of $19,600.

Similarly, preceding the third halving, the cryptocurrency saw a decline of 20.35%, reaching a low of $8,078 before reaching a peak of $69,000.

Bitcoin recurring pre-halving plunge.

In the current halving cycle, the price has already decreased by 16.65%, mirroring the historical trend identified by CryptoQuant.

Despite the decline, CryptoQuant suggests that this reduction is typical before halving events, indicating that it may not necessarily warrant concern. The CryptoQuant analyst noted:

There’s no need for alarm, as this scenario repeats consistently in each cycle, albeit with varying percentages. The correct approach now is to enter the market gradually at previously identified strategic points. The path to the current cycle’s peak remains open, and we are still at the beginning of this journey.

Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects the observations made in the CryptoQuant report. The crypto has witnessed a downward trend over the past week, with a decrease of over 10% in the last seven days and a further decline of 3.1% in the past 24 hours. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $63,098, indicating ongoing volatility in the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Market Experts Weigh In: Bitcoin Insights And Projections

Industry experts offer contrasting perspectives on Bitcoin’s future trajectory in light of the impending halving. Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, acknowledges the likelihood of short-term selling pressure leading up to the halving, citing the familiar adage of “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” trading behavior.

Nonetheless, Marszalek remains optimistic about the long-term implications of the halving, emphasizing its potential to “bolster” Bitcoin’s price trajectory over an extended period.

Echoing this sentiment, Samson Mow, head of Jan3 BTC adoption-focused company, dismisses the current price downturn as an “overreaction,” foreseeing a bullish resurgence post-halving.

Mow highlights the impending halving as a catalyst for a significant “supply shock” in the Bitcoin market, driven by the absorption of BTC by spot Bitcoin ETFs and recent regulatory approvals for Bitcoin-related financial products in Hong Kong.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView