Friday’s payrolls will likely compel the Fed to maintain flexibility in its policy decisions going forward, one observer said.
Bitcoin Price Plunge Imminent as Bears Protect Key Resistance
Bitcoin price is still struggling to clear the $44,500 and $44,700 resistance levels. BTC is showing a few bearish signs and might drop toward $42,150.
- Bitcoin is facing a major hurdle near the $44,500 resistance zone.
- The price is trading below $44,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
- There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $44,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
- The pair could decline toward the $42,350 and $42,150 support levels.
Bitcoin Price Faces Hurdles
Bitcoin price attempted a fresh increase above the $43,500 resistance zone. BTC even broke the $43,800 resistance zone but the bears were active near the $44,500 resistance zone.
There were a few attempts to gain strength above $44,500, but the bears remained active. A high was formed near $44,483 and the price is now showing a few bearish signs. There was a drop below the $44,000 support zone. The price traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $42,480 swing low to the $44,483 high.
Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $44,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now below $44,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $44,000 level. The first major resistance is $44,200. The main resistance is now forming near the $44,500 level. A close above the $44,500 level could send the price further higher. The next major resistance sits at $45,450. Any more gains above the $45,450 level could open the doors for a move toward the $46,200 level.
More Losses In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $44,000 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $43,200 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $42,480 swing low to the $44,483 high.
The next major support is near $42,800. If there is a move below $42,800, the price could gain bearish momentum. In the stated case, the price could drop toward the $42,150 support in the near term.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $42,800, followed by $42,150.
Major Resistance Levels – $44,000, $44,200, and $44,500.
Revised Forecast: Bloomberg Analyst Cuts Probability Of Bitcoin Spot ETF Rejection To 5%
Popular Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has lowered the possibility of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) denying the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF to 5%. This latest forecast comes as crypto enthusiasts worldwide anticipate a wide-scale approval of various Bitcoin spot ETF proposals by the SEC on Wednesday, January 10.
Why The Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Appears Nearly Certain: Bloomberg Analysts Weigh In
In October, Eric Balchunas and fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart predicted that there is a 90% chance that ARK Invest and 21 shares would receive approval for their joint Bitcoin spot ETF bid on January 10, which marked the final deadline date for the SEC’s response on their application.
However, in a recent X post on January 6, Balchunas raised the probability of this greenlight to an astounding 95% after declaring that there was only a 5% probability the SEC would reject the ARK/21 ETF bid in the coming days.
Well said although I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 6, 2024
This new prediction is based on the implausibility of all scenarios, which could represent a possible delay or non-approval of the ARK/ 21 shares Bitcoin spot ETF application. In an earlier X post on January 6, James Seyffart had listed these scenarios starting with ARK/21 shares spontaneously withdrawing their ETF proposal from the SEC, which he claimed to be highly unlikely.
Another scenario is that the SEC discovers new reasons to reject the launch of a crypto spot ETF, resulting in a drawn-out court battle between the US regulator and ARK/21Shares, a situation that Seyffart believes the SEC would rather avoid, especially following its recent loud legal loss against Grayscale investment.
The final event that the Bloomberg analyst believes could prevent the clearance of the ARK/21 Shares ETF bid is a direct intervention from the US Presidency, another scenario that appears remotely possible.
The D-Day Approaches
The importance of ARK/21 Shares’ joint bid to the Bitcoin spot ETF saga revolves around its final deadline date for an SEC response, which is the earliest of the bunch. Now, it is believed that the SEC will rather approve several Bitcoin spot ETF applications at once regardless of their respective final deadline date in a similar fashion as it did with Ether-futures ETFs in August.
This belief is backed by the discussions between the US regulator and various applicants in the last few weeks, leading to amendments in respective proposals, which indicates the preparation of an incoming approval.
At the time of writing, the set date of expectation remains January 10, with crypto enthusiasts highly enthusiastic about the potential bullish effects of a spot ETF on Bitcoin’s price over the year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade at $44,050, having gained by 4.50% in the last week.
Bitcoin Spot ETF: VanEck’s Head Of Research Says BlackRock Has $2 Billion In Investments Lined Up
VanEck’s Head of Research, Matthew Sigel, recently hinted that the Spot Bitcoin ETF of the world’s asset manager, BlackRock, could see a record-breaking amount of inflows upon launch. This comes as an approval order by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) looks imminent.
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Could See Inflows Of Over $2 Billion
Sigel mentioned on an X (formerly Twitter) space hosted by the media platform, The Block, that he heard from a reliable source that BlackRock has “more than $2 billion lined up in week one.”
This investment capital is said to be coming from existing Bitcoin holders who are looking to increase their exposure to the flagship cryptocurrency.
He quickly added that he couldn’t be 100% certain of this information. However, it is a possibility, considering that issuers would be looking to get investors that can inject huge sums into their respective ETFs.
Sigel went on to highlight how significant it could be if BlacRock’s ETF indeed saw $2 billion of inflows in the first week of trading, saying that it would “blow away” their initial projections. They estimate that the Spot Bitcoin ETFs could see $2.5 billion of inflows in the first quarter of trading. Meanwhile, they believe the market could grow to $40 billion in the next two years.
Not Out Of Place For BlackRock
Commenting on the possibility of BlackRock seeing this significant amount of inflows, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that such an occurrence isn’t unusual for the world’s largest asset manager. According to him, BlackRock is known for lining up and injecting big cash into new ETFs on the first day of trading. That way, it registers as volume for them.
Balchunas further noted that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, seeing $2 billion of inflows, would shatter all records relating to first-day and week volume for an ETF. Interestingly, BlackRock already holds the record for the most successful ETF launch going by the amount of inflows recorded on day one.
The world’s asset manager further dominates the top 10 list of most successful ETF launches. Balchunas, however, clarified that those inflows were mainly lined up cash and not organic, as they were readily available before the ETF launched. He also mentioned that he got a second source to confirm Sigel’s claims that BlackRock has a big day one lined up.
Meanwhile, the Bloomberg analyst provided an update on when the approval order from the SEC was likely to come. Citing multiple sources, he stated that the SEC is lining up all issuers for a potential launch on January 11.
Bitcoin Flash Crash: Crypto Market Witnesses $2.5 Billion Inflow Following Recent Downturn
The past week was largely defined by the Bitcoin price climbing above $45,800 for the first time in over 20 months, marking a great start to the year. However, the premier cryptocurrency soon experienced a sharp price pullback due to negative news about the BTC spot (ETF).
Interestingly, the latest on-chain data has revealed that investors seem not to have completely lost faith in Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
$2.5 Billion Flows Into Crypto Market Following Bitcoin Crash
In a post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has offered on-chain insight into the aftermath of the crash that affected Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. The pundit noted in his post that a substantial amount of funds flooded back into the sector a day after the market downturn.
This revelation was based on on-chain data from blockchain analytics platform Glassnode. The relevant indicator here is the “positive 30-day capital inflows”, which tracks the net influx of capital into the crypto market over a 30-day period.
The chart above shows that a significant amount of funds have been entering the cryptocurrency market over the past few months. According to Glassnode’s data, more than $2.5 billion flowed back into the cryptocurrency market on Thursday, January 4, bringing the positive 30-day capital inflows to about $27.5 billion.
This latest inflow of capital into the market offers insight into the positive shift in sentiment and market condition. It basically signals renewed investor confidence in crypto assets following a short period of uncertainty and price correction.
As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at $43,661, reflecting a 0.2% decline in the past 24 hours. However, the market leader seems to be recovering well, with $44,000 not too far out of reach.
How BTC Holders Reacted To The Market Downturn
A recent analysis shows how various classes of Bitcoin investors reacted to the negative ETF news and the subsequent decline. This evaluation was based on the Spent Output Age Bands USD (SOAB) indicator on the CryptoQuant analytics platform.
The investors were divided into five classes based on the age of their holdings. According to the analysis, short-term holders who fell within the 1-week-to-1-month and 1-month-to-3-month classes exited the market at break-even and profits, respectively.
Meanwhile, long-term holders who purchased Bitcoin in the first half of 2023, falling between the 6-month-to-12-month class, dumped about $7.6 billion worth of BTC. The 1-year-to-5-year holder class, on the other hand, barely made a move after the market downturn.
ETF Or Halving: Analyst Doubles Down On Bullish Year For Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) began 2024 on a positive note gaining by 3.18% in the first week of the year, according to data from CoinMarketCap. The premier cryptocurrency is expected to herald in a bull crypto season, with many investors expecting immediate approval of Bitcoin spot ETF proposals by various asset managers.
However, regardless of the decision of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the next few days, crypto analyst Ali Martinez believes Bitcoin is still poised for massive gains in 2024 as there is another bullish factor in play.
Bullish 2024 For Bitcoin With Or Without ETF Approval – Analyst
In an X post on January 6, Martinez expressed much optimism about Bitcoin’s potential price performance in 2024. He stated that irrespective of developments in the Bitcoin spot ETF saga, BTC is still set for major price surges due to another bullish narrative – namely, the Bitcoin Halving.
To explain, the Bitcoin Halving is an event in which the block rewards for miners are reduced by 50%. It happens every four years, with the first occurrence being in 2012. The halving event causes a reduction in BTC supply in comparison to demand, causing scarcity which leads to a price increase.
Whatever happens with the #Bitcoin ETF, remember we have another bullish narrative this year: The $BTC Halving!
It has historically been a catalyst for major price surges. Just take a look at the percentage increases in #BTC price following past halvings.
pic.twitter.com/FF1F99l34c
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 5, 2024
Martinez highlighted this fact stating that historically, there has been a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price following past halvings. When the first halving occurred on November 28, 2012, BTC was trading at around $12. In the next year, the token had attained a new price of $1,000.
A similar phenomenon was noted after the second halving on July 9, 2016, at which Bitcoin was valued at $670. However, By December 2017, BTC had surged to an all-time high of $19,700. The third halving event took place in May 2020, with Bitcoin being traded at $8,821. By November 2021, BTC had surged by 700%, attaining its current all-time high of $68,783.
Based on this price history, Martinez believes that BTC investors are well placed to reap large profits in the coming months as the next Bitcoin halving is set for April 2024. He postulates that these cyclical gains should remain constant, notwithstanding the SEC’s approval for Bitcoin spot ETF or not.
BTC Price Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $43,665, experiencing a slight decline of – 0.30% in the last 24 hours. On a larger scale, the leading cryptocurrency has demonstrated resilience over the past seven days, posting a noteworthy gain of 4.07%.
Over the last year, BTC’s performance has been remarkable, witnessing a substantial surge of 159.94%. However, amidst market fluctuations, there is a noticeable dip in daily trading volume, down by 22.25%, which is currently valued at $26.8 billion.
Trading Guru John Bollinger Forecasts Bitcoin Breakout, $50,000 On The Horizon?
John Bollinger, a legendary Bitcoin (BTC) trader known for creating the Bollinger Bands strategy, has recently shared an optimistic view on Bitcoin’s future.
Bitcoin Poised For Further Surge?
In a post on X, John suggest that Bitcoin’s price is likely to “break higher” from its current levels. This prediction is based on his analysis using the Bollinger Bands chart, a popular technical analysis tool he developed. For context, Bollinger Bands are a type of statistical chart characterizing the prices and volatility of an asset over time.
They consist of a set of three lines: the middle line typically represents the simple moving average of the asset’s price, and the other two lines are plotted at a standard deviation above and below the average. This tool helps traders to assess market conditions and potential price movements.
I think it breaks higher. $btchttps://t.co/vH9yoFa2Ut
— John Bollinger (@bbands) January 4, 2024
Bollinger’s prediction using this methodology indicates a positive outlook for Bitcoin, especially significant in light of the recent market turbulence.
Bitcoin’s Recovery And $50,000 Price Target
So far, Bitcoin’s journey in the crypto market has been marked by resilience, as evidenced by its recovery from a notably down turn in the market that resulted in the asset to trade in the $40,000 region.
Currently trading above the $43,000 mark, Bitcoin has shown a 3% growth in the past 7 days. This rebound is particularly noteworthy following a bearish report from Matrixport concerning a rejection of spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Joining Bollinger in bullish predictions is Dan Gambardello, another well-respected analyst in the crypto space. Gambardello has projected an upward breakout for Bitcoin, potentially leading the digital currency to reach the $50,000 mark in the short-term and $60,000 in the long term.
This projection is tied to the anticipation of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval, which could serve as a significant catalyst for Bitcoin’s price movement. Gambardello explains that this upward trend would represent a historical breakthrough for Bitcoin, especially in terms of breaking through the lower highs of its Fibonacci level.
Bitcoin ETF Ticking Time Bomb! Approval Could Trigger Historic Crypto Rally!
Intro 00:00
Big Grayscale news 1:10
Bitcoin ETF final stretch 2:30
BTC price pressure building 3:15
$50k Bitcoin target 5:10
BTC attempting something it’s never done 6:30
Bitcoin dominance and altcoins… pic.twitter.com/uZZ2YrblCO— Dan Gambardello (@cryptorecruitr) January 4, 2024
Notably, it is evident that the predictions from both Bollinger and Gambardello hinge significantly on the US SEC decision regarding the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. While optimism prevails, Gambardello has also cautioned that a rejection could lead to a decline in Bitcoin’s price, potentially dropping below $40,000 to find support around $37,000.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Analysts Caution Against Missing Out As BTC May Surge To $500k With ETF Launch
As the Bitcoin price has regained previously lost territory, following reports suggesting that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would reject the long-awaited Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), new developments have reignited hopes among investors.
Although the approval of these index funds is not expected to occur on Friday, sources indicate that the upcoming week may bring positive news.
ETF Approval To Drive Gradual Bitcoin Price Surge To $500,000
FOX journalist Eleanor Terret reports that amended 19b-4 filings and last-minute phone calls regarding comments on S-1s and possible launch dates are expected in the coming days.
While approvals seem likely in the next week, according to Terret, the timeline ultimately depends on the SEC’s ability to review the comments and amendments submitted efficiently.
Terret describes the current situation as a meticulous process of “dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s,” emphasizing the attention to detail required for regulatory clearance.
On the other hand, crypto analyst Adam Cochran offers valuable insights into the potential impact of Bitcoin ETFs, as all signs point to the imminent approval of these investment products.
Cochran suggests that many may “overestimate” the short-term effects of ETF approval while underestimating its long-term implications. In the immediate aftermath, market flows may not witness a significant surge. However, Cochran believes that investment advisors will review their clients’ portfolios over the next year and recommend diversifying even a small percentage, such as 1%, into the ETF.
Cochran emphasizes that the Bitcoin price performance, with a remarkable 157% return in the latter half of 2023, will be a key factor driving investor interest.
Cochran envisions a gradual upward trajectory for the Bitcoin price, characterized by persistent growth and occasional market volatility.
Ultimately, Cochran’s long-term forecast indicates a potential Bitcoin price surge to $500,000 per coin, leaving sidelined investors regretfully waiting for a substantial market correction. Cochran further noted:
Also, ETFs result in spot buys, not leverage, which improves system health. And are long-term holders, less likely to sell volatility. So it creates a slow grind up of underlying market health. Like the best DCA you could ask for.
Bitcoin ETF Pricing Potential Not Fully Realized
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez suggests that the pricing potential of a Bitcoin ETF may not have been fully realized, providing insight into the current state of the Bitcoin market.
Martinez points to a decline in the estimated leverage ratio across all exchanges, reaching a two-year low. This indicates that Bitcoin traders are adopting a more cautious approach, reducing their use of borrowed funds as they await regulatory clarity on the ETF.
Furthermore, Martinez emphasizes the significance of Bitcoin’s price above $41,800. According to Martinez, Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its position above $41,800 is crucial for establishing a bullish outlook.
This level is reinforced by approximately 2.41 million addresses holding over 1 million BTC, creating a substantial support zone.
The significant number of addresses with substantial Bitcoin holdings suggests a strong interest in maintaining the cryptocurrency’s value and provides a foundation for market stability. Martinez notes that the resistance levels ahead for Bitcoin appear relatively minor. This implies that fewer significant barriers are impeding potential price increases.
With reduced resistance, the market conditions become more favorable for stable or rising prices, further supporting the bullish sentiment.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Whale Watch: Bitcoin’s $100,000 Transactions Soar, More Surge Ahead?
The Bitcoin (BTC) network has experienced a significant uptick in high-value transactions, a phenomenon not seen in nearly two years. Crypto analyst Ali has highlighted this trend, noting 16,900 transactions, each exceeding $100,000.
This surge is a critical indicator of increased activity by Bitcoin whales – entities holding large amounts of BTC – and provides valuable insight into their strategic maneuvers in the current market landscape.
In the past 24 hours, #Bitcoin experienced its largest spike in transactions over $100,000 in nearly two years.
The 16,900 large transactions serve as a proxy for $BTC whale activity, offering insights into how these major players might be positioned in the #crypto market. pic.twitter.com/CCnaoBOK0F
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 5, 2024
Bitcoin Recovery Following Matrixport Reports Saga
This flurry of whale activity arrives amid a backdrop of intensified market volatility. Bitcoin, the bellwether of the digital currency world, recently underwent a price correction, dipping below the $41,000 mark.
This downturn has been attributed to various factors, particularly the controversial report from Matrixport, which gave reasons why the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may reject several spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) applications this month.
Despite these factors, Bitcoin has shown resilience as it has begun to regain ground, hovering around the $43,000 mark. The asset has demonstrated a 2.5% increase over the last week.
BTC To $50,000?
Several analysts have weighed in with predominantly bullish forecasts in the wake of Bitcoin’s recovery from the week’s earlier downturn. Dan Gambardello posits that Bitcoin might be on the cusp of “breaking out from a symmetrical triangle pattern.”
This technical formation, often characterized by decreasing volatility and converging trendlines, hints at potential price escalation. Gambardello asserts that this breakout could catapult BTC to the $50,000 mark, especially with the anticipated approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
A symmetrical triangle, recognized by its oscillating price movements between converging upper and lower trendlines, signifies a standoff between buyers and sellers. Should BTC shatter the upper boundary of this pattern, as Gambardello suggests, it may indeed embark on an unprecedented trajectory, surpassing critical resistance levels within its Fibonacci sequence.
Bitcoin ETF Ticking Time Bomb! Approval Could Trigger Historic Crypto Rally!
Intro 00:00
Big Grayscale news 1:10
Bitcoin ETF final stretch 2:30
BTC price pressure building 3:15
$50k Bitcoin target 5:10
BTC attempting something it’s never done 6:30
Bitcoin dominance and altcoins… pic.twitter.com/uZZ2YrblCO— Dan Gambardello (@cryptorecruitr) January 4, 2024
Another voice in the chorus of bullish predictions is Adrian Zduńczyk, a renowned crypto trader. Zduńczyk shares an optimistic outlook, forecasting that BTC could reach new all-time highs following its upcoming halving event.
4/ With the 4th halving in mid April, $BTC can be a hot speculation topic, backed by the hopes of the ETF approvals.
Besides, BlackRock’s iShares $IBTC Bitcoin Spot ETF can set an example for many institutions to follow.
Trillions of dollars are estimated to flow into crypto. pic.twitter.com/vYQ2F6c36w
— Adrian Zduńczyk, CMT (@crypto_birb) January 1, 2024
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin “Outlook Remains Bullish,” As Long As This Stays True: Analyst
An analyst has explained that the outlook for Bitcoin should remain bullish as long as the cryptocurrency’s price remains above this level.
Bitcoin Has Strong On-Chain Support Above $41,800
In a new post on X, analyst Ali talked about the various BTC support and resistance levels from an on-chain perspective. In on-chain analysis, the strength of any support or resistance level depends on the amount of Bitcoin that the investors bought at said level.
The chart below shows what the distribution of the different BTC price ranges currently looks like based on the concentration of holder cost basis that they carry.
As displayed in the above graph, the $41,800 to $43,100 range hosts the acquisition price of most Bitcoin out of all the price ranges listed. To be more specific, about 2.4 million addresses acquired 1 million BTC within this range.
The cost basis is naturally of immense significance for any investor, as the spot price retesting can flip their profit-loss situation. As such, holders become more likely to show some move when a retest like this happens.
A holder in profit before the retest might tend to buy more when the retest happens, as they might believe this same level that proved profitable earlier would do so again.
On the other hand, loss holders might want to sell at their break-even level since they may fear the cryptocurrency going down again, putting them underwater again.
These buying and selling moves aren’t enough to move the market when just a few investors are making them, but if a large number of investors have their cost basis inside a narrow range, the reaction could become significant.
Since those above $41,800 to $43,100 range is dense with investors, it should be an essential on-chain range. The spot price is floating above the range so that these prices could act as a support barrier for the asset. Based on this, Ali explains, “as long as Bitcoin maintains its position above $41,800, the outlook remains bullish.”
The chart shows that the Bitcoin ranges above the price aren’t carrying the cost basis of that many investors. This could imply that there isn’t much resistance ahead for the coin.
The analyst notes that this lack of major resistance also strengthens the potential for the cryptocurrency to stay at the current levels or push towards the higher ones.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has been gradually making its way back up after the recent crash, with its price climbing towards the $43,800 mark. The below chart shows how the asset has performed during the last few days.
dYdX Founder Skeptical Of Current Bull Run, Cites Low Participation
Taking to X on January 5, Antonio Juliano, the founder of dYdX, a decentralized exchange (DEX), expressed skepticism regarding the current crypto bull run. Juliano attributed the recent price surge to “light trading volumes.” This formation might, despite the overall confidence, not sustain the uptrend.
Founder: This Bull Run Is Different, Participation Is Low
Juliano asserted that a true bull cycle is not defined solely by price action but by participation and community enthusiasm. The founder continued that this “does not seem to be happening yet.”
The founder attributed the lack of widespread adoption to the absence of “groundbreaking” products that have captured the attention of a “broader” audience. However, releasing these “products” to the market could revive activity, driving crypto trading volume.
Juliano’s comments come ahead of the potential approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Among several applicants are Fidelity, Grayscale, and BlackRock. Insiders claim the agency could approve the first product in the coming days.
A spot Bitcoin ETF may open the floodgates to institutional investors, allowing them to gain exposure to the Bitcoin and crypto market in a regulated manner. As it is currently structured, willing institutions regulated by the SEC can only get exposure through Grayscale’s products, including the GBTC.
Along the same line, some commentators have speculated that the SEC’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could lead to the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF in 2024. An Ethereum Futures ETF was approved in 2023 and is currently available for trading. Even so, the product, like Bitcoin Futures ETFs that are widespread, tracks an Ethereum index price, not the Ethereum spot rate. Even so, whether the SEC will greenlight a spot Ethereum ETF remains to be seen.
Will A Bitcoin ETF Approval Revive DYDX Demand?
Trading volume is a critical metric for measuring participation and, thus, interest in a particular asset. The higher it is, the more liquid the asset is.
Depending on the prevailing sentiment, this might support prices or lead to a sell-off. As the crypto community eagerly waits for the SEC to decide on the flagship product, altcoins, including DYDX, have been firm.
Looking at the DYDX price chart in the daily chart, prices are moving horizontally but relatively high from the October 2023 lows.
The coin is up roughly 50% but remains under pressure in the short term. DYDX is down 40% from November 2023 peaks, trading below December 2023 lows in a bearish breakout formation.
Bitcoin Price Omega Candle “Very Real” Says This Developer, Here’s Why
The Bitcoin price saw a spike in volatility due to the decision around the spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). Market participants await an announcement at any point during the upcoming days, which will likely result in further spikes in volatility.
As of this writing, the Bitcoin price trades at $43,900 with a 1% profit recorded over the last 24 hours. Over the previous seven days, the cryptocurrency records a 3% increase, acting as the best-performing asset in the crypto top 10 by market cap.
Bitcoin Price Ready For A Massive Rally?
According to many analysts, the potential implications for the Bitcoin price should the spot ETFs get approval are “impossible” for the market to price in this event. Thus, the bullish effects of this approval can only impact BTC in the mid to long-term as capital enters the financial product.
On the other hand, volatility has been susceptible to sudden spikes, as mentioned above. In late 2022, any news related to the Bitcoin ETF moved the market by thousands of dollars, most notably, the report by the crypto news outlet Cointelegraph inaccurately announcing the financial product launch before receiving confirmation from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Developer Samson Mow claims this effect can benefit Bitcoin prices by pushing them beyond expectations. This week, two conflicting reports by analysis firm Matrixport pushed BTC back to critical support levels.
A similar effect might drive Bitcoin back above the $50,000 area. Mow stated:
Bitcoin dropped $5k on some fake news from a no-name analyst. Imagine what happens when a dozen ETFs are approved and start smash market buying. You may think an Omega candle is impossible, but it’s very real.
Confidence In BTC Grows Stronger
In support of the bullish thesis, trading desk QCP Capital pointed at the recent leverage “washed out” triggered by the Matrixport reports. Over $1 billion in long liquidations were triggered as BTC returned to the $40,000 level.
However, the cryptocurrency climbed back and re-took these levels’ mid-area. In a report, QCP Capital stated the following regarding Bitcoin’s potential to see a stronger rally in the mid-term:
For now, the topside remains capped by resistance at the 46 – 48.5k region with support at the 40.5 – 42k region. In spite of the leveraged washout, BTC has climbed back up to 44,000 level. While we remain wary of a “sell the news” knee-jerk reaction to the downside, this resilient price action gives us more confidence in the medium-term bullish view into BTC halving towards Mar/Apr this year.
Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
Arthur Hayes Foresees 30% Bitcoin Crash Amid ‘Vicious Washout.’ Here’s Why
Depletion of the Fed’s reverse repo program and expiry of a crucial funding facility for troubled banks may trigger a market crash in March and force the Fed to cut interest rates, Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes said.
Why This Analyst Thinks It’s Impossible For The Bitcoin ETF To Be Priced In
On a high note, the crypto market starts in 2024, with BTC’s price rising steadily from $41,000 to around $46,000 as the Bitcoin ETF decision looms. The upcoming decisions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the BTC spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) could lead to significant market fluctuations.
These decisions, expected between January 5th and 10th, have kept Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), along with altcoins, on a tightrope with high funding rates indicating a preference for leveraged trades.
Crypto Market Braces For Bitcoin ETF Decision: Volatility Spikes The New Normal?
According to a report from options platform Deribit, the current market environment is hard to read with the usual indicators. Still, the readings across funding rates hint at a potential decline.
The anticipation of a price drop following the ETF announcement, a classic ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ scenario, is in full swing. Nevertheless, the report claims the continued rise in crypto and sustained interest in trading BTC futures via the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) highlights a growing enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies from traditional finance institutions.
History suggests that the crypto market often reacts more negatively to actual product launches than preliminary approvals. This was evident in events like the BTC CME futures launch and the Coinbase IPO. If the market prices are high during the launch of these new financial products, it might trigger a short-term sell-off, especially if they fail to meet flow expectations, Deribit stated.
However, any major price corrections should be “brief,” given the favorable macro environment, technical factors, and the build-up to Bitcoin’s halving. In case of decline, traders should watch the $40,000, $37,000, and $31,800 levels as potential support.
The volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum has been noteworthy in the run-up to these ETF approvals, with Bitcoin’s implied volatility rising sharply to around 70, outperforming Ethereum. The current volatility levels are likely to decline following the Bitcoin ETF decision.
On the BTC volatility, the report stated the following forecasting a trend for the upcoming bull market:
Ethereum, while similar to Bitcoin, hasn’t yet reached inversion. That said, its long-term volatility is outperforming Bitcoin’s, suggesting optimism for Ethereum in 2024.
In that sense, traders should look for any downside momentum in the ETH/BTC trading pair. Deribit claims that any decrease in the price of ETH is a “buy opportunity,” as suggested by the current market structure.
Impact On Bitcoin Derivatives
The options market’s reaction to the upcoming ETF decision is subtle, with Bitcoin’s call skew recovering quickly after recent market fluctuations. Ethereum maintains a consistent call premium, indicating a marked shift in focus towards Ethereum following Bitcoin ETF approvals.
As for option flows and dealer gamma positioning, Bitcoin’s option volumes have decreased, with the market favoring buying in call spreads and selling in put spreads. In other words, derivatives player have been increasing their call positions in anticipation of the ETF decision in the US.
Regarding the impact of this decision, Deribit and others have provided their views, but one analyst believes that the long-term effect of a Bitcoin spot ETF can’t be measured at the moment. Via the social media platform X, this analyst stated:
It’s impossible for something to be “priced in” if a huge amount of capital literally doesn’t have access yet. Yes, currently eligible speculators and their available capital can buy ahead of an event. But that’s as far as any “pricing in” goes if the pool of participants is about to greatly expand. Note: this does not predict what will happen immediately after ETF approval.
Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
If a Bitcoin ETF Is Approved, Here’s What May Happen
This week marked the 15th year since the genesis block was mined on Bitcoin and for 10 of those years industry stalwarts pleaded with the SEC to approve a spot bitcoin ETF. So far, the SEC has rejected every spot ETF application, but that may be about to change.
First Mover Americas: Crypto ETPs Gained $2.2 Billion of Investment in 2023
The latest price moves in bitcoin [BTC] and crypto markets in context for Jan. 5, 2024. First Mover is CoinDesk’s daily newsletter that contextualizes the latest actions in the crypto markets.
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The closely watched report
BlackRock $10 Million Bitcoin Purchase Will Happen Today, Expert Says SEC Is Backed Into A Corner
The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, is set to make a significant Bitcoin purchase on January 5. This comes as Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart hinted that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has no choice but to approve the pending Spot Bitcoin ETFs finally.
BlackRock To Purchase $10 Million Worth Of Bitcoin
As part of efforts to seed its Spot Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock will purchase $10 million worth of BTC on January 5. The asset manager had earlier scheduled this Bitcoin purchase for January 3. However, it was eventually postponed to this later date, possibly in a bid to ensure they gain all regulatory approvals and be fully compliant.
BlackRock had revealed how the sum of $10 million had come about in the latest amendment to its S-1 filing. The world’s largest asset manager had noted that the said sum was proceeds from the sale of its “Seed Creation Baskets.” The firm initially seeded its ETF back in October, with the fund’s Seed Capital Investor purchasing $100,000 in shares.
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart had previously warned that Blackrock’s plans to seed their ETF with this amount doesn’t mean they are launching just yet. However, he remarked that there was a possibility that the asset manager was doing so in anticipation of an imminent launch.
Meanwhile, it is also worth mentioning that BlackRock’s initial seed fund could eventually be outranked. Fellow issuer Bitwise revealed in their latest amendment to their Spot Bitcoin ETF that they could potentially seed their fund with up to $200 million if they eventually get approval from the SEC.
The SEC Is Backed Into A Corner
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart recently shared his thoughts on whether or not an approval order was going to come from the SEC soon enough. According to Cointelegraph, Seyffart stated that there was no way the Commission could get issuers to withdraw their application as they are already backed into a corner.
The analyst made this comment following his assertion that the regulator has run out of reasons to deny these Spot Bitcoin ETFs. He alluded to the Grayscale case, where the court ruled that the SEC’s reasons for denying the asset manager’s application were insufficient. With this in mind, Seyffart said that the SEC is likely to approve these funds soon enough.
These approvals could come as soon as next week, going by the analyst’s projection. Seyffart stated that he expects an official approval order to come between January 8 and 10. This is despite the recent rumors that the SEC could approve these funds before this week runs out.
March banking crisis rerun risks 40% Bitcoin price crash — Arthur Hayes
Bitcoin dipping 20% would be “healthy,” but up to 40% is possible depending on liquidity conditions, the former BitMEX CEO now reveals.
These Events Will Create A Bitcoin Crash In March: Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, in his latest essay, presents a foreboding prediction for the Bitcoin market in March, anticipating a severe correction of 30-40%. His detailed analysis, rooted in a deep understanding of market dynamics, outlines the complexities and driving factors behind this expected crash, respectively healthy but deep correction.
Hayes begins his discourse with a cautionary reminder of the nascent state of the crypto bull market, warning enthusiasts not to be overly carried away. “The crypto bull market is in its early stages, and we must not get carried away with our enthusiasm,” he says, highlighting the uncertain journey towards the inevitable collapse of the fiat financial system.
Why The Bitcoin Price Could Fall 40% In March
His prediction revolves around three key financial events and indicators converging in March. Hayes first points to the anticipated decline in the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) Balance to a critical level of $200 billion, a scenario he believes will trigger market anxiety about future sources of dollar liquidity. He describes this threshold as a moment of reckoning, “When this number gets close to zero… the market will wonder what is next,” underscoring the gravity of this anticipated development.
The second pivotal factor is the fate of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which is due to expire on March 12th. Hayes portrays this as a significant test for the financial system, speculating on the decision-making process of the US Treasury in the face of potential liquidity crises among banks. He articulates the market’s anticipatory stance, suggesting that “the market will start getting inquisitive many weeks before about whether or not the banks will continue receiving this lifeline.”
The final piece in Hayes’ forecast is the Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 20th, where a rate cut is expected. This decision, in Hayes’ view, is crucial for setting market expectations and influencing the dynamics surrounding dollar liquidity provision by the Fed and the US Treasury Department.
Hayes then delves deeper into his tactical trading strategy in response to these events, detailing his plans to short the crypto market using Bitcoin puts. He articulates his approach, saying, “I will look to buy a sizable put option position on Bitcoin around this time,” signaling his preparedness to leverage the anticipated market shift.
An important aspect of Hayes’ analysis is the potential impact of the US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). He argues that the anticipation of substantial fiat capital inflows into these spot ETFs could initially propel Bitcoin’s price to soaring highs. However, he warns that this upsurge could be followed by a dramatic correction, exacerbated by a liquidity squeeze.
“Imagine if the anticipation of hundreds of billions of fiat flowing into these ETFs at a future date propels Bitcoin above $60,000,” he says, illustrating the potential for a steep decline. Hayes explains that a market already heightened by ETF speculation would be particularly vulnerable to a sharp correction, potentially worsening the downturn to 30-40% in the event of a liquidity crunch.
How Hayes Will Trade This Scenario
Hayes then shifts to discuss his tactical trading decisions in response to these indicators. He shares his plan to initially short the crypto market using Bitcoin puts, followed by a return to selling US Treasury bills and acquiring more Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. In explaining his approach, Hayes states, “I will look to buy a sizable put option position on Bitcoin around this time,” indicating his readiness to capitalize on the predicted market downturn.
Furthermore, Hayes details his strategy for Bitcoin puts, explaining the rationale behind choosing puts expiring on June 28th and his approach to selecting the strike price. He emphasizes the importance of timing and market dynamics, noting, “I expect Bitcoin to experience a healthy […] correction from whatever level it has attained by early March.”
In his conclusion, Hayes contemplates various scenarios that could play out differently from his predictions. He considers the implications of a slower decline in the RRP, a potential extension of the BTFP by Yellen, or alternative outcomes of the Fed’s March meeting. He notes that each of these scenarios could lead to different market behaviors, necessitating adjustments in his trading approach.
At press time, BTC traded at $43,940.
