Grayscale Files Updated Spot ETF As Bitcoin Barrels Past $37,000

The asset manager Grayscale has filed an updated Spot Bitcoin ETF filing following its meeting with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The foremost cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, also rebounded on the back of the news as it crossed the $37,000 mark once again.

Why Grayscale’s Filing May Be Significant

In its filing dated November 22, Grayscale made some amendments to the original S-3, which it had previously filed with the SEC. As pointed out by prominent finance lawyer Scott Johnsson, the changes include some new risk factors. Some of these risk factors are said to match that of ARK Invest’s relating to expanded disclosure of fraud and manipulation risk. 

Johnsson noted that the amended risk factors are important because their inclusion is most likely a directive from the SEC. Meanwhile, fraud and manipulation had served as the grounds why the SEC had disapproved Grayscale’s initial application. Therefore, the lawyer believes that the SEC directing Grayscale to include could mean a “concession” that it is no longer a “roadblock.”

As highlighted by Johnsson, Grayscale’s revised filing is significant, especially considering the fact that it has met with the SEC division responsible for approvals right before it. As such, one could assume that it has gotten direction on how to ensure compliance in the hopes that approval could come soon. 

Meanwhile, it would seem that other potential issuers are also in talks with the SEC. Bloomberg Analyst James Seyffart had recently mentioned hearing rumors of such. If true, that could mean that the SEC is more open to approving these ETFs.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Providing Momentum To Crypto Market

Bitcoin rallied past $37,000 on the back of Grayscale’s filing. This price movement signifies the impact that the Spot Bitcoin ETF narrative has on the market. This is also not the first time that news around Spot Bitcoin ETF has provided momentum to the market. 

In October, Bitcoin touched $30,000 for the first time in months on the back of a false CoinTelegraph post. Although it was false, many instantly realized the impact that an approval of these funds could have on the market. Meanwhile, shortly after that, Bitcoin and the whole crypto market continued to rally on the back of the narrative. 

During that period, Bitcoin crossed $35,000 on the back of news that BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust had been listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation. BlackRock had also revealed plans to begin seeding during that period. While everyone in the market continues to hold on to speculation, many will hope that the projection of approval by January 10, 2024, comes true. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $37,300, up over 2% in the last 24 hours according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Grayscale Spot ETF)

Bitcoin Price Returns To Key Resistance As The Bulls Aim For $40K

Bitcoin price trimmed all losses and climbed above $37,000. BTC is now eyeing a major upside break above the $37,750 and $38,000 resistance levels.

  • Bitcoin is showing positive signs and testing the $37,750 resistance.
  • The price is trading above $37,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
  • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $37,150 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could start a major increase if it clears the $38,000 resistance zone.

Bitcoin Price Regains Strength

Bitcoin price started a downside correction after reports of Binance’s settlement and CZ stepping down. BTC dropped below the $37,000 support. However, the bulls were active near the $35,650 support zone.

A low was formed near $35,645 and the price started a fresh increase. It trimmed all losses and climbed above the $37,000 resistance. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $37,150 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

The pair even broke the $37,500 level and tested the key hurdle at $37,750. Bitcoin is now trading above $37,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. It is also above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $35,645 swing low to the $37,777 high.

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $37,750 level. The main resistance is now forming near the $38,000 level. A close above the $38,0000 resistance might start a strong increase.

Bitcoin Price

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The next key resistance could be near $38,800. A clear move above the $38,800 resistance could send the price further higher toward the $39,200 level. In the stated case, it could even test the $40,000 resistance.

Another Rejection In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $37,750 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $37,150 level.

The next major support is $36,700 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $35,645 swing low to the $37,777 high. If there is a move below $36,700, there is a risk of more downsides. In the stated case, the price could drop toward the $36,150 support in the near term. The next key support or target could be $35,650.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $36,700, followed by $35,650.

Major Resistance Levels – $37,750, $38,000, and $38,800.

Bitcoin Price Boost Ahead: CEO’s Bold Prediction Points To 10 US States Adopting Pro-BTC Laws In 2024

In a recent statement, Dennis Porter, the co-founder and CEO of Satoshi Action Fund, expressed his belief that the year 2024 will mark a crucial turning point in the history of Bitcoin. 

Porter’s remarks amidst growing anticipation surrounding the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the highly anticipated halving event scheduled for April 2024. 

According to Porter, these events, combined with the efforts of the Satoshi Action Fund, have the potential to impact the price and adoption of Bitcoin significantly.

Satoshi’s Plan To Establish The US As Global Bitcoin Leader

Satoshi Action Fund, a non-profit organization dedicated to informing policymakers and regulators about Bitcoin, has actively shifted the narrative surrounding the world’s leading cryptocurrency. 

The fund aims to promote “hyper-Bitcoinization,” a term coined to describe the widespread adoption of Bitcoin as a global currency.

One of the primary goals of the Satoshi Action Fund is to advocate for the passage of pro-Bitcoin legislation in 10 different US states by 2024. According to Porter, these proposed laws would protect individuals’ rights to self-hold and mine Bitcoin, positioning the United States as a global leader in Bitcoin adoption and mining.

Interestingly, Porter envisions a future where bipartisan legislation empowers Bitcoin and fosters the growth of an emerging digital asset industry.

Recent developments in the Bitcoin ecosystem further bolster Porter’s optimism. The halving event occurs approximately every four years and is anticipated to reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, potentially leading to increased scarcity and upward price pressure. 

Additionally, the long-awaited approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has the potential to attract institutional investors and facilitate mainstream adoption.

BTC’s Path To New Heights

Renowned crypto expert Charles Edwards has boldly proclaimed that the recent liquidation of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) surrounding the crypto market will pave the way for a significant price rebound. 

Edwards believes that the culmination of recent developments, particularly the Binance news, will eliminate sources of FUD accumulated over the past two years.

The market has been gripped by panic triggered by headlines associating the term “guilty” with cryptocurrencies. However, Edwards suggests that the recent news concerning Binance should be viewed more as a settlement rather than a detrimental event. 

Edwards points out that five years ago, exchanges were not compliant with know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) regulations, whereas now, they have implemented these practices. Consequently, Edwards believes that the lingering FUD surrounding Binance can finally be restored.

Looking ahead, Edwards highlights several positive catalysts on the horizon for BTC. These include the potential approval of ETFs, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, expectations of lower interest rates, and the possibility of a recession leading to increased quantitative easing (QE).

Edwards concludes by envisioning a “Bitcoin liquidity atomic bomb” waiting to explode. With the elimination of FUD and a series of positive triggers aligning, the market is poised for a substantial rebound. 

The convergence of ETF approvals, the halving event, accommodative monetary policies, and a potential recession are expected to propel Bitcoin to new heights.

Bitcoin

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $36,500, experiencing a slight decline of 2.2% over the past 24 hours. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin Bulls Buckle Up: Seasonal Trends Point To $50,000 Target

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency on the market, has again failed to consolidate and reach the $38,000 level for the third time, as it is currently experiencing a 3% pullback. This has led the community to speculate that a significant retracement may occur before the bullish momentum resumes and the next uptrend begins. 

However, renowned crypto analyst Adrian Zduńczyk has recently shed light on Bitcoin’s potential next target of $50,000. Zduńczyk’s analysis considers several crucial factors, including the prevailing bullish market sentiment, the ongoing uptrend, the short-term outlook, miner sentiment, and seasonal trends. 

Evidence Of Dominant Bull Market

Zduńczyk notes that the cryptocurrency industry is in a bull market, with Bitcoin reaching a new 52-week high close and experiencing the third wave of the bullish cycle. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has risen, indicating a favorable environment for Bitcoin. High time frame trends are also rising.

Zduńczyk identifies key macro support levels for Bitcoin at $29,000 and $27,000, highlighting growing demand fueled by the anticipation of the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the upcoming halving event expected in April 2024.

Notably, the daily chart for BTC remains in an uptrend, according to Zduńczyk. He points to a target of $40,000, supported by the appearance of a “golden cross” pattern.

Furthermore, Zduńczyk believes that the rising Simple Moving Average (SMA) 200 serves as “irrefutable evidence” of a dominant bull market since January. These indicators suggest a continuation of the upward trajectory for Bitcoin.

Zduńczyk also identifies key support levels at $35,000 to $35,800, emphasizing that a bullish sentiment prevails as long as Bitcoin remains above these levels. 

Zduńczyk Eyes Bitcoin November Target Of $50,000

Currently, Bitcoin is ranging between $35,500 and $38,000, Zduńczyk notes that the momentum bands are widening, indicating an increase in volatility. The rising 50-day Average True Range (ATR) trend supports this observation.

Fear & Greed Index stands at 69, indicating a mixed sentiment among market participants. Miners, on average, are enjoying a profit increase of 23%. Zduńczyk maintains a positive outlook based on these factors. 

Regarding seasonal trends, October demonstrated a gain of 27%, exceeding the average performance. Historically, November has been the best month for Bitcoin, which has an average gain of 43%, with a target of around $50,000. Notably, December typically adds 7% to November’s closing price.

Bitcoin

Currently, BTC is trading at $36,400, reflecting a 5% and 22% profit over the past fourteen and thirty days, respectively. The focus now shifts to whether BTC’s price can maintain its crucial support levels and sustain its bullish uptrend, potentially reaching the $50,000 milestone supported by historical patterns.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

Has Bitcoin Reached “Euphoria” Yet? What On-Chain Data Says

Here’s what on-chain data says regarding if the latest Bitcoin rally has hit the overheated “euphoria” stage where past bull runs topped out.

Bitcoin Percent Supply In Profit Has Now Hit The 83% Mark

In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the “euphoric” BTC phase from the angle of investor profitability. Euphoria basically refers to that period of the market where the investors have started embracing greed and the rally is becoming heated.

Historically, the major rallies in the asset have attained their tops in such market conditions. To define what constitutes euphoria, Glassnode has referred to the “percent supply in profit” metric. This indicator keeps track of the percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply that’s currently being held at a profit.

Here is a chart that shows the trend in this indicator over the past decade:

Bitcoin Supply In Profit

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin percent supply in profit has naturally shot up as the latest rally in the cryptocurrency has occurred and the metric’s value is now floating around the 83% mark.

The all-time mean of the metric is 74%, so the current levels are notably above this level. In the chart, the analytics firm has also marked the +1 standard deviation line for the indicator, above which the market can be thought to have entered into the early stages of the euphoria phase.

The +1 standard deviation line for the metric is around 90%, so the current profitability levels are still below the mark but are nonetheless quickly closing in the gap.

As mentioned before, these profitability levels are in terms of the supply or the coins, calculated by checking for the number of tokens that have their cost basis below the current spot price.

There is another way to gauge profitability, however, and it’s the magnitude of the profits that these coins are combined are seeing right now. This unrealized profit is naturally calculated by subtracting the cost basis of each coin from the current spot price and summing up these differences for the entire supply in profit.

Bitcoin Unrealized Profit

“For the analysis of investor behavior, often the unrealized profit is a more critical variable as it relates back to the USD-denominated profit of investor positions,” explains Glassnode.

From the graph, it’s visible that the +1 standard deviation line for this Bitcoin indicator is still quite a distance away from the current value, meaning the coin is far from reaching the euphoric state of the bull market.

“This suggests that whilst a significant volume of the supply is in profit, most have a cost basis, which is only moderately below the current spot price,” notes the report.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has gone through some volatility over the past day following the news of Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stepping down as Binance’s CEO. The asset had earlier slipped below the $36,000 level but has since recovered back to $36,600.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Pro-XRP Lawyer Deaton Picks His Top 10 Cryptos For The Year Ahead

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), noted XRP advocate and lawyer John Deaton shared his top 10 cryptocurrency picks for the next 12 months. His selection includes a mix of well-established and emerging digital currencies.

He stated, “If you had to pick only 10 tokens to own for the next 12 months (as a trade) what are they? Here’s mine: BTC, XRP, ETH, QNT, RNDR, SOL, KAS, AVAX, HBAR, CSPR. What am I missing?”

Analysis Of The Pro-XRP Lawyer’s Picks

Bitcoin (BTC): Deaton likely selected Bitcoin due to the potential imminent approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts anticipate that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might approve multiple spot Bitcoin ETF by January 10, 2024, a move that could significantly impact Bitcoin’s value

XRP: Deaton’s choice of XRP is consistent with his role as a strong supporter and legal advocate for the XRP community. XRP’s status as a regulatory-defined token in the United States with high utility adds to its appeal. Currently, XRP is consolidating after being rejected at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.7492.

XRP price

Ethereum (ETH): Despite the harsh criticism of Ethereum’s founder, Deaton has included ETH in his list. This might be due to its position as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Also, BlackRock and several other financial giants have recently applied for a Spot Ethereum ETF, adding to the potential bullish trajectory of ETH in the next 12 months.

Quant (QNT): The QNT token of Quant Network has found itself in a downtrend channel since late January this year, down approximately 35% from its year-to-date high. With the current price of $98.74, QNT is 78% below its all-time high of $428.38 on November 21, 2023. Nevertheless, Quant can boast partnerships with major financial institutions, including the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Bank of England, Bank of Canada, MasterCard, Amazon, and Barclays, to develop and test use cases for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

Quant price

Render Network (RNDR): The RDNR token is currently up 725% since the beginning of the year. Render Network provides a decentralized GPU rendering platform, allowing artists to scale GPU rendering work on-demand to high-performance GPU nodes. Notably, the RDNR price has also profited from the AI narrative.

Solana: SOL has been one of the other big winners this year, up nearly 600% at the current price since it went below $8 at the end of last year. Solana is currently seen as the potential biggest challenger to Ethereum as a layer-1 blockchain, which is why Deaton may have ranked SOL on his list.

Kaspa (KAS): Kaspa has gained attention due to its positioning as a highly scalable Layer-1 blockchain, with a focus on fast confirmations and high throughput. Its underlying technology, GhostDAG/PHANTOM protocol, aims to balance security, scalability, and decentralization. The KAS token’s impressive performance, with an over 2,600 % increase year-to-date, makes it a notable inclusion.

Avalanche (AVAX): Avalanche’s AVAX token might be included due to its recent gains of almost 130% since mid-October. Deaton may have chosen AVAX because of Avalanche’s involvement in the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s tokenization initiative, Project Guardian, as well as its partnership with Amazon Web Services and Deloitte, all of which are potential catalysts for price appreciation.

Hedera (HBAR): Hedera Hashgraph has gained prominence by becoming part of FedNow, the US Federal Reserve’s instant payments platform. This development led to a significant surge in the price of Hedera’s HBAR token.

Casper (CSPR): Casper’s inclusion may be due to its position as one of the fastest-growing blockchain projects, with a focus on solving the blockchain trilemma of scalability, security, and decentralization.

Remarkably, Deaton’s selections reflect a balance between established market leaders like Bitcoin and Ethereum, and emerging, high-potential projects like Kaspa and Casper. This blend indicates a strategic approach to cryptocurrency investment, recognizing both stability and innovation within the digital asset space.

Binance Drama Causes Crypto Prices To Dance On The Edge – Details

The prices of prominent cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin and Binance Coin, experienced a decline subsequent to the emergence of reports indicating that Changpeng Zhao, the founder and CEO of Binance, admitted guilt in relation to charges of anti-money laundering and several other criminal violations.

This admission was made as part of a substantial settlement, amounting to billions of dollars, reached between Zhao and regulatory authorities in the United States.

Binance Coin had a decline of almost 6% following an earlier increase of up to 5% during the day. This fluctuation in value was driven by investors who were optimistic about the resolution of the ongoing multiyear investigation involving the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange.

In the aftermath of the market downturn, investors holding long positions on BNB experienced widespread liquidation. At the time of writing, BNB long liquidations approached $3 million within the hour following the disclosure of the Binance developments.

The impact of the action had a significant influence on the remaining cryptocurrency market. The leading digital currency, Bitcoin (BTC), experienced a decrease of 1.55%, remaining slightly below the $37,000 mark. In a similar vein, Ethereum (ETH) observed a decline of around 2%, with its value reaching $1,993.

Additional cryptocurrencies, like Ripple (XRP), experienced a decline of 3.2%. Similarly, Solana witnessed a decrease of almost 4%, while Polygon and Uniswap recorded losses of 7.6% and 3.6%, respectively.

Zhao is currently confronting charges of violating criminal anti-money laundering laws, a charge he acknowledged responsibility for after resigning.

In addition, Binance has agreed to a $4.3 billion settlement with the US authorities, which is among the biggest, if not the most significant, resolutions in the history of the cryptocurrency market.

The most recent FOMC minutes also appear to have compelled investors to trade cautiously in light of the continued market concerns, which is why cryptocurrency prices were down today.

Notably, the drops in the prices of the majority of the main cryptocurrencies suggested that investor opinion may be changing.

Meanwhile, notwithstanding the early declines in price, some observers of the sector think that the Binance scenario may serve to further spark the recent surge in cryptocurrency prices.

According to Jeff Embry, the managing partner of Globe 3 Capital, a crypto hedge fund, the reported settlement involving Binance holds significant importance in the context of addressing the consequences and rectifying the negative effects of the bear market.

“Bear markets wash out many of the bad businesses, business practices, inefficiencies and bad actors,” he said.

Fineqia Research Analyst Matteo Greco said the crypto industry will benefit in the long run from Changpeng Zhao’s resignation and Binance agreeing to pay a fine of $4 billion or more.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from Shutterstock

Spot Bitcoin ETF Odds ‘Might Have Increased To 100%’: Matrixport

Matrixport, a leading digital finance platform, today, November 22, released a comprehensive research note focusing on the significant implications of yesterday’s developments in the crypto industry, particularly regarding the prospects of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States.

Following the guilty plea of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and the substantial financial settlements involved, Matrixport suggests that the path for approving a spot Bitcoin ETF might have become significantly clearer. The note highlights the regulatory crackdowns and compliance upgrades in the crypto sector, indicating a shift towards greater regulatory alignment with traditional financial (TradFi) systems.

“Some would argue that the US agencies have cleaned up the industry this year by dismantling the US crypto-related banks, as two of them were running an internal ledger that crypto companies could use 24/7 to transfer fiat. Arguably, few (perceived) major actors are left, and with Bitcoin only declining -3.4% during the last 24 hours, the market is stomaching a major risk-off event,” Matrixport remarks.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds At 100% Now?

The company points out that with stringent enforcement actions and enhanced compliance programs becoming the norm among crypto exchanges, the differentiation between regulated and non-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges may become a key metric in 2024. This shift is seen as instrumental in the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, a development long anticipated by the industry.

“The result will likely be that more exchanges will enhance their compliance programs and become part of a surveillance-sharing agreement, which will be instrumental in approving a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US,” the firm stated, adding, “With this plea deal, the expectations for a spot Bitcoin ETF might have increased to 100% as the industry will be forced to follow the rules that TradFi firms must follow.”

The firm believes that this “whitewashing” of the industry will not only enhance Bitcoin’s adoption by institutional players but also position it as a safe-haven asset in investment portfolios. “More importantly, this industry’s whitewashing will strengthen the Bitcoin adoption case for institutional players and will likely become a safe-haven asset in investors’ portfolios,” Matrixport predicts.

The note also touches on the anticipated sale of the FTX exchange and its potential relaunch under a US securities law-compliant management team by Q3 2024. Matrixport speculates that this could lead to significant inflows, estimated between $24-50 billion, into any US-listed Bitcoin ETF. They also note the increasing trend of crypto firms making markets on CME-listed crypto derivatives, indicating a shift from retail-focused, unregulated exchanges to those that are fully regulated and cater to institutional clients.

‘Dark Cloud Has Been Removed’ As ETF Makes Progress

Analysts and industry experts have echoed Matrixport’s sentiments. Will Clemente, a noted analyst, stated, “With resolution on Binance, just a matter of weeks until Bitcoin ETF approval now.” Tony “The Bull” Severino, head of research at NewsBTC, commented, “A dark cloud has just been removed from the crypto market.” Conversely, Scott Johnsson, a finance lawyer at Davis Polk, offered a more cautious view, suggesting that “It’s far more likely an ETF decision led the Binance resolution than the other way around imo. And I’m not convinced either is that likely.”

Remarkably, there has been some movement in the spot ETF approval process in the last few days. Ark Invest has kicked off the third round of amendments to the S-1 filings, Grayscale had a meeting with the US Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday regarding its “uplisting.”

At press time, BTC traded at $36,483.

Bitcoin price