Bitcoin Market Dynamics Still Positive Post-Halving – Bitfinex Analysis

In the midst of the dramatic changes that have occurred in the cryptocurrency space after the Bitcoin halving event, Bitfinex provides a perceptive analysis that reassures investors that the market dynamics of BTC have remained positive in the post-halving period. Bitfinex examines the on-chain data and finds encouraging signs for Bitcoin in spite of the United States economy’s current state of uncertainty in its most recent Alpha report, which was released on April 22.

Bitcoin Market Dynamics Remains Bullish

According to the Hong Kong-based crypto platform, exchange withdrawals of Bitcoin are currently at levels not seen since January 2023. This simply indicates that a lot of investors are putting their assets in cold storage in expectation of price rises.

Also, the exchange noted that long-term investors’ aggressive selling has not yet caused the usual pre-halving price decline, which suggests that new market participants are absorbing the selling pressure quite well, highlighting the tenacity of the present market structure of Bitcoin.

The Bitfinex Alpha report revealed that the average daily net inflow from spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) is $150 million. Given the ETFs’ inflows far exceeding the $30 and $40 million daily issuance rate of BTC following the halving, this significant supply and demand imbalance could encourage further price appreciation.

Bitfinex further claims the massive purchases of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have dominated the entire year’s market narrative, may decline. However, recent ETF outflows have shown that ETF demand may be starting to stabilize.

It is important to note that the recently concluded Halving cut down miners’ reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. As a result, miners are now modifying their operating tactics in order to sustain their activities against the decline in reward following the Halving.

Thus, the amount of Bitcoin that miners are sending to exchanges has significantly decreased, which may indicate that they are selling ahead of time or collateralizing their holdings to upgrade infrastructure. Consequently, this could possibly lead to a gradual increase in selling pressure rather than a sudden drop in value at the Halving.

New BTC Whales Surpassed Old Whales

Since the conclusion of the fourth Halving, on-chain data shows a significant rise in new Bitcoin whales. CryptoQuant Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Ki Young Ju, reported the development, noting that the initial investment made by the new whales in Bitcoin is nearly twice that of the old whales combined.

According to the data, the total holding by these new whales, which are short-term holders, is valued at $110.6 billion. Meanwhile, the old whales, which are long-term holders, own a whopping $67 billion worth of BTC. This change in whale demographics may impact Bitcoin’s future course and the dynamics of the cryptocurrency landscape as a whole.

Bitcoin

Bitfinex Securities Starts Operations In El Salvador – Here Are The Details

Over the last few years, El Salvador has been making considerable efforts to become Latin America’s crypto hub. Today, two and a half years after adopting Bitcoin as a legal currency in the country, Bitfinex Securities announced the launch of Bitfinex Securities El Salvador S.A., the first platform to offer tokenized securities.

Launching The First Licensed Digital Asset Platform In El Salvador

On January 31, 2024, Bitfinex Securities officially became the first registered and licensed digital assets service provider to launch in El Salvador, and it’s now accepting customer applications. 

Last year, El Salvador approved the Digital Asset Securities Law, allowing Bitfinex Securities to apply for and receive approval for the first digital assets license under this regulatory framework.

This new law, as Juan Carlos Reyes, President of the National Commission of Digital Assets (NCDA), explained:

(…) carved out digital assets regulation from the traditional financial regulator and created the national commission of digital assets, that oversees the supervision and regulation of the ecosystem.

Additionally, the NCDA Chair recalled the positive experience with the firm and praised it for its ‘regulatory high standards’ and ‘world-class’ knowledge of compliance.

In the announcement, Bitfinex Securities highlighted the “substantial leap for financial innovation in Latin America” that the development of the tokenized securities industry in El Salvador suggests. The firm also announced it has established a pipeline of potential issuances that it expects to come to the market throughout the year.

Bitcoin ETF Approval Provides An Optimistic Outlook

“We are delighted to be able to announce the launch of Bitfinex Securities in El Salvador,” said Paolo Ardoino, Chief Technology Officer of Bitfinex Securities. He expressed his excitement to take part in the “forefront of this financial revolution,” stating:

This is not only an important market for Bitfinex given its adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender and the fostering of a Bitcoin-based economy, but it also gives El Salvador the opportunity to attract global investment flows, as issuers put out competitively priced securities offerings.

The launch of the Bitfinex Securities El Salvador platform follows the approval of the spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 10. The successful launch of Bitcoin-based ETFs in the US makes the firm expect a significant demand for exposure to other regulated digital asset services.

Jesse Knutson, Bitfinex Securities Head of Operation, highlighted in his statement the progress that El Salvador has made since 2021:

Following up on El Salvador’s groundbreaking policy work and legislative frameworks over the past two and a half years, the official launch of Bitfinex Securities El Salvador is another important step in the evolution of capital markets and an important global proof of concept.

Knutson also expressed optimism over the “recent surge of institutional investor interest in Bitcoin-focused financial products.”

Bitcoin, BTC, BTCUSDT

Was 50% Of XRP Supply Sent To Bitfinex? Separating Facts From Fiction

A transaction involving a whopping 25.6 billion XRP (valued at nearly $15 billion), nearly half of the total circulating supply of approximately 54.26 billion, raised alarm within the crypto sector in the late evening of January 14. The transfer was reported to have originated from an unknown wallet to the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex.

Were 25.6 Billion XRP Really Moved?

However, further investigation revealed this to be a failed attempt at exploiting the “Partial Payments” function of the XRP Ledger, as confirmed by Paolo Ardoino, Chief Technology Officer (CTO) at Bitfinex.

The incident first came to public attention when Whale Alert, a renowned blockchain tracking platform, reported the massive transaction on X. This initial report, which was later retracted, created a stir in the market, raising concerns over a potential security breach in the XRP Ledger that could severely impact XRP’s market price.

Whale Alert acknowledged the error in their reporting with a clarification: “There was an issue with properly reading the Ripple node response, resulting in a few wrong posts. We fixed the issue.” Paolo Ardoino, who also holds the position of CEO of Tether, provided further insight into the incident, stating: “Someone attempted to attack Bitfinex via ‘Partial Payments Exploit’. Attack failed since Bitfinex properly handles the ‘delivered_amount’ data field.”

Ardoino also referenced a section on xrpl.org that explains partial payments in detail. This feature of the XRP Ledger allows a sender to enable a “Partial Payment” flag, resulting in the delivery of an amount less than what is indicated in the Amount field.

The exploit lies in the ability to manipulate this feature to deceive exchanges and gateways. The crucial factor in preventing such exploits is for platforms to use the ‘delivered_amount’ metadata field, rather than the Amount field, to determine the actual amount transferred.

In this particular case, the attacker only sent 16 XRP – a stark contrast to the reported 25.6 billion XRP. This small transaction triggered an alert to the on-chain monitoring system due to the way the Whale Alert systems process and report transactions.

Attacker Tried Other Exchanges As Well

Additionally, blockchain data revealed that similar failed attempts were made on other prominent cryptocurrency exchanges. Binance faced an attempted transfer of 58.9 billion XRP, and Bitstamp was targeted with a 26,200,000 XRP transfer. These transactions, like the one aimed at Bitfinex, were part of the exploiter’s strategy and did not result in the transfer of significant sums of the cryptocurrency.

At press time, the market price of XRP showed resilience against these incidents, maintaining stability at $0.58. Nevertheless, the XRP bears showed their strength again with yesterday’s weekly close. The price closed below the critical resistance of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.59. However, the bulls at least managed to defend the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).

XRP price

A Chat With Paolo Ardoino: What’s Behind The Bitcoin Price Rally, New Role As CEO, And Adoption

A year ago, our team sat down with Paolo Ardoino, CTO at crypto exchange Bitfinex, to talk about the Bitcoin price and the events that, for many, triggered the long crypto winter: the FTX collapse, and the downfall of major companies in the space.

Now, we sat down with Ardoino once again to talk about the underlying reasons fueling the current Bitcoin price rally, Bitfinex’s partnership with El Salvador, their ambition for the long term, and his new position as CEO at Tether, the company behind stablecoin USDT.

Ardoino draw a parallel between Bitcoin adoption and the legacy financial market, saying that adoption happens “slowly” but much more in the traditional system. In addition, he claims to be unbothered by his new role to focus more on the work. This is what he told us:

Q: What does your new position mean for you personally and for Bitfinex as a company? Will there be any changes for the users?

Paolo: No changes at all. I mean, I think on the Bitfinex side, again, my role didn’t change, and so things are progressing at the same pace, with the same attention to our user base. Same excitement for Bitcoin adoption and building Bitcoin infrastructure. So, absolutely no changes on the side. And also on the other side, I’ve been involved in strategy decisions for the last few years. I have always been excited to not just do development but also work on the strategy and the business side. So, also no changes there (…) Given the fact that I’ve been, anyway, leading the strategy made sense to just adjust the title on the Tether side as well.

For me. I mean, I’m the same guy that keeps working, keeps coding, keeps doing things that he likes all day long (…) So I like to think that for me, nothing changes. I’m not the type of guy that goes around with fanfare for title changes. I just like to work. I like the two companies that I’m working in. My passion is my work; it is my hobby.

Q: Having celebrated two years since the Bitcoin Law made BTC legal tender in El Salvador, do you believe it has significantly impacted the population? Are more people using Bitcoin now compared to 2021?

Paolo: So that’s a good question. So first of all, I am always carefully explaining that while we all want change, that is fast change can never be fast. People are historically by nature are reluctant to change. So I think it’s important that people keep that in mind because. I lived part of my time in Switzerland and I was talking to a few banks and local administrations in Switzerland and they were confirming that even for the credit cards and debit cards, it took 15 years to be widely used because people the first time they had the debit cards and credit cards in their pockets, and we are talking about Switzerland, that is basically the country of finance and banks, yet the adoption was so low because people didn’t trust that the piece of plastic that they have in their pockets. So with Bitcoin it’s the same, right?

So it’s about earning trust over time. I don’t think Bitcoiners need to push Bitcoin down people’s throats. I think Bitcoiners have to be patient, to explain things in a way that is simple to understand. Sometimes we bitcoiners are a bit too hard to comprehend or too hard to follow just because we like to use big words and complex explanations but that is not what we should be doing. We should be crafting education that is good for a kindergarten teacher or a taxi driver, school bus driver who is selling groceries. That is the real adoption takes time to understand, to get this type of feedback and to adapt the educational processes for that. So I’m sure that the Bitcoin adoption will come. There is a lot of new companies that I’m meeting this, that are moving here in El Salvador to help with the process, to provide further infrastructure, to invest themselves in education. So it’s just a process that takes time and sometimes you have mainstream media trying to demonize the work, pace, and speed at which things are moving here. But again, they are always forgetting that in traditional finance things always move even slower than these. So, I would say that Bitcoin adoption in Salvador is a success and will be even more successful in the next years.

Q: Could you share details about Bitfinex’s partnership with El Salvador? What initiatives are you currently working on, and what projects do you hope to develop in the coming years?

Paolo: We partnered with two educational projects. One is called Torogoz Dev, which focuses on leveraging the expertise of developers here to instruct and teach other developers. And so to create a community of developers that understand really well Bitcoin, the importance of that is that we want El Salvador to be able to grow its internal knowledge and internal infrastructure and software development base. It’s fine to bootstrap it with people coming from that side, but it’s more and more important to have knowledge and a strong base of developers drawing from the inside. And then also Mi Primer Bitcoin is another partnership that we achieved for a location that is more suitable for the broader public.

Then we obtained a securities license so that our goal there is to make sure that El Salvador will become the central financial hub for Central and South America. And I think it has all the chances to do that because the local administration, the president, the government are really forward looking. They seem to think things are on the right track to bring companies or have companies that can leverage securities here in El Salvador to raise capital for their companies, for their enterprises. And it’s quite unique because imagine the United States, if you are a small company that has around between $500,000 and $10 million of market cap, it’s almost impossible to get a loan or to raise capital publicly because then you would need to go to a bank. But the banks are extremely expensive and they will take huge fees and it would cost too much in lawyers for you. So people don’t do that, small companies don’t do that, but Bitfinex Securities aims to create a more democratic access for companies that want to raise capital through securities.

Q: Turning to Bitcoin’s current market activity, there’s a widespread belief that the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF has bolstered the rally. What is your perspective on this? Do you sense a shift in the market dynamics?

Paolo: So I think that since 2022 after FTX, Bitcoin has been extremely oversold. So I think that slowly but steadily it has recovered over the last months. We don’t see much Bitcoin (supply) the sell side right now. Institutions are accumulating Bitcoin left and right. So that is also one of the reasons, in my opinion, why the price is going up. And even with the Bitcoin ETF even further, you can argue easily that that will drive Bitcoin adoption. So I think it’s normal to see the price moving also considering the Halving next year.

I think people started to realize that there is a big difference between Bitcoin and everything else, every other token. So people are going for something that maybe doesn’t do 100x in a few days as some random tokens, but is a certainty, right? Is something that is stable, has a strong user base, has strong fundamentals, and that cannot be said for all the other tokens. So that’s why we are seeing this growing excitement around Bitcoin.

As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $36,400 after cooling off during the day. The cryptocurrency reached a yearly high north of $38,000.

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Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview