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All Quiet On The Bitcoin ETF Front – Should You Be Paranoid?

The recent approval and launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs have brought about notable changes in market dynamics. Among the most significant players affected is Grayscale, a leading institution in the crypto space.

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Holdings Experience Decline

Grayscale, known for its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), held the highest BTC market capitalization among institutions. However, an in-depth analysis reveals a decline in its Bitcoin holdings over recent months.

From nearly 620,000 BTC in January, Grayscale’s holdings have dwindled to a little over 300,000 BTC at the time of reporting. This decline raises questions about the factors influencing institutional investment strategies in the crypto sector.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Witness Fluctuating Flows

Following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the market has witnessed fluctuating flows across various platforms. While certain ETFs have experienced significant volume, others have recorded zero flows, indicating a mixed response from investors. BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscale’s GBTC have been among the few to register notable flows, with both inflows and outflows observed in recent days.

A closer look at the data reveals consecutive outflows in Bitcoin spot ETFs over the past few days, reminiscent of similar trends observed in March. On the 15th and 16th of April, outflows amounted to nearly $27 million and $58 million, respectively.

Despite these outflows, analysts point out that such fluctuations are not uncommon in the ETF market and may not necessarily indicate product failure.

Analysis Of Flow Patterns Provides Insight

Examining specific flow patterns offers valuable insights into investor behavior and market sentiment. While Grayscale’s GBTC experienced consecutive outflows, BlackRock’s IBIT saw inflows on certain days. This variance underscores the diverse strategies adopted by investors in response to the evolving crypto landscape.

It’s important to note that zero inflows on certain days are considered normal for ETFs, according to analysts. They emphasized that such occurrences are commonplace across various ETFs and should not be interpreted as a sign of product failure. Instead, they reflect the ebb and flow of investor interest in a rapidly evolving market.

Future Outlook For Bitcoin ETFs

As Bitcoin ETFs continue to gain traction, the market is poised for further evolution. While some platforms may experience fluctuations in flows, the overall trajectory of institutional investment in the crypto sector remains optimistic.

The approval and launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs have sparked shifts in market dynamics, impacting institutions like Grayscale and prompting fluctuations in ETF flows. Despite the volatility, analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin ETFs and their role in shaping the future of finance.

Featured image from DataDrivenInvestor, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Readying For A 12-Year Bull Run To $650,000 If Bulls Take Charge: Analyst

Even with Bitcoin prices facing pressure from sellers, Willy Woo, an on-chain analyst, thinks the coin will reach new highs thanks to the launch of new Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In a post on X, Woo said the coin could soar to as high as $91,000 in a bear bottom but soar to as high as $650,000 in a bull market top.

However, Bitcoin will only soar to these mega valuations, assuming that leading asset managers will fully deploy their recommended allocations to the world’s most valuable crypto asset.

Bitcoin In A Wide Range

At spot rates, Bitcoin looks shaky. Even after the surge to all-time highs of over $73,000 in mid-March 2024, the coin has been under pressure. So far, prices are within a range. There are caps at $73,800, or an all-time high, on the upper end and around $61,000 on the lower end of its current range. 

As long as prices are inside this zone, the uptrend remains. This preview considers the formation established in the better part of Q1 2024 after the first spot of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States was approved.

Bitcoin price trending upward on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

In the post on X, the analyst should note that the rise to $91,000 and $650,000 are long-term targets and not for the current market cycle. Most importantly, Woo added, it will depend on how fast and aggressively asset managers like BlackRock add BTC to their diversified portfolios.

Even so, this projection excludes inflows from non-custodial wallets. Capital flows from these wallets are projected to be higher due to rising crypto adoption.

Here’s How BTC Will Soar In The Coming Years

In Woo’s assessment, asset managers manage around $100 trillion globally. If they decide to invest 2% of their holdings in Bitcoin as Fidelity recommends, the asset could receive around $2 trillion. Additionally, considering the coin’s value, based on on-chain movement, worth around $561 billion, the total investment would reach $2.56 trillion.

Using the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, Woo said BTC could soar to a market high of $650,000 in a bull cycle. The MVRV is a metric that compares market capitalization to on-chain investment.

Conversely, BTC could reach a swing low of $91,000 if the crypto market crushes. The MVRV ratio is typically 5X in bull market tops and 0.7X in bear market bottoms.

Woo thinks Bitcoin, like gold, is ready for a 12-year bull run. Even so, adoption and emerging regulations in Europe and Asia will shape the path to $91,000 and $650,000.

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Bitcoin Dips, But Don’t Panic: ETFs See Three Days Of Bullish Inflow

The recent approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the SEC sent jitters through the financial world. Initial concerns about fading demand seem unfounded as Bitcoin ETFs continue to shatter trading volume records. This is further bolstered by three consecutive sessions of net inflows into these investment vehicles.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Signal Long-Term Investor Appetite

A recent dip in ETF activity sparked fears that the initial excitement might be short-lived. However, those fears have been quelled by a resurgence in inflows.

According to data from SoSoValue, yesterday saw a net inflow of $203 million into Bitcoin spot ETFs, marking the third straight day of positive inflow.

This sustained green streak suggests that investors remain interested in gaining exposure to the top crypto through ETFs, potentially anticipating a price surge due to the upcoming Bitcoin halving – a pre-programmed code update that cuts production in half, historically leading to price increases.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Leads The Pack

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has emerged as a frontrunner in the crypto ETF space. Their iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded the highest net inflow on a single day, exceeding $144 million.

This impressive figure has pushed IBIT’s total net inflow over the past two weeks to over $14 billion. BlackRock’s commitment to Bitcoin ETFs is further underscored by their recent decision to include prominent Wall Street institutions like Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Citadel Securities, and UBS as Authorized Participants (APs) in their spot Bitcoin ETF prospectus.

These additions position these banking giants as first-time participants in the ETF market, joining established players like JPMorgan and Jane Street.

The inclusion of such heavyweights is seen as a significant vote of confidence in the future of Bitcoin ETFs and a potential catalyst for further mainstream adoption.

Volatility On The Horizon For ETFs

While the recent surge in demand paints a bullish picture for Bitcoin ETFs, experts warn that volatility may be lurking on the horizon. CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency analysis platform, points to signals in the futures market that suggest potential price swings in the near future.

A consistently high premium often signifies strong institutional buying pressure, particularly in light of the recent inflows witnessed in US Bitcoin ETFs. This increased institutional activity can contribute to price fluctuations, creating opportunities for both gains and losses.

Despite the potential for short-term volatility, the overall outlook for Bitcoin ETFs remains positive. The sustained demand, coupled with the backing of major financial institutions like BlackRock, suggests that these investment vehicles are poised to play a significant role in bridging the gap between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency world.

Featured image from Vegavid Technology, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Final Dance: Analyst Eyes Final Peak Ahead Of Halving

Once again, there is hope for Bitcoin (BTC) as Michael Van De Poppe, a cryptocurrency expert, has spotlighted the potential for the crypto asset’s price to reach a new all-time high before the highly anticipated Halving event commences.

One Final All-Time High For Bitcoin Before Halving

The price of Bitcoin is presently exhibiting new bearish activity, which might trigger negative sentiments in the market over the next few days. Despite the notable decline, Michael Van De Poppe is optimistic that BTC will attain a new height prior to Bitcoin Halving expected to occur this month’s end.

According to the analyst, the digital asset is currently in a consolidation zone. He further identified two distinct crucial levels within the lower timeframes such as the $67,000 threshold as a support level and the $71,700 mark as a final break out towards the peak.

It is worth noting that Michael Van De Poppe previously forecasted that Tuesday is probably when the real moves are expected to begin as Bitcoin consolidates. Thus, if the coin holds the $67,000 level, he will propose a one-last peak test ahead of the halving.

Bitcoin

Poppe seems to be confident about his prediction now as he asserts that if one of the two aforementioned crucial levels develops, it will determine the direction of Bitcoin. Due to this, he believes BTC will experience one final pre-halving all-time high.

The post read:

Bitcoin is calmly consolidating. Crucial levels (lower timeframes): $67,000 to hold for support, $71,700 for a final breakout towards the ATH. If either of the two happens, probably direction is chosen. I think we will have one final ATH test before halving happens.

Following the recent decline, Poppe has issued a warning to the crypto community on how to interact with the price action. “You do not want to chase those massive green candles,” he stated.

He advocates entering the market when BTC‘s price is down by 15% to 40%. Additionally, he addressed those considering investing in altcoins, urging them to invest when altcoins are down by 25% to 60%.

Possible Triggers For The Correction

As of press time, Bitcoin’s price is trading at $65,843, demonstrating a decline of over 5% in the daily timeframe. Its trading volume has seen a significant uptick of 66% in the past day, while its market cap has decreased by 5%.

Since its peak of $73,000, achieved in early March, the price of Bitcoin has dropped by nearly 10%. One factor considered to have contributed to the retracement was the influx of funds into US Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded funds (ETFs), which has since started to calm down gradually.

Data from Wu Blockchain revealed that the products saw an overall net outflow of $85.84 million on Monday. BlackRock ETF IBIT recorded a net inflow of $165 million, while Grayscale ETF GBTC experienced a single-day net outflow of $302 million. Presently, the historical cumulative net inflow for the BTC spot ETFs is pegged at $12.04 billion.

Bitcoin

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New Era For VeChain: Marketplace Platform Unveiled, Price Spike Looming?

In a new development, VeChain (VET) has announced the introduction of its latest No-Code Tokenized Asset Marketplace-as-a-Service platform (MaaS), fueling optimism within the community of an impendent price uptick.

The announcement also featured the collaboration of the MotoGP racing team Gresini Racing as its first enterprise client. By collaborating with Gresini Racing, an enormous fan base will be offered digital collectibles through the MaaS platform.

VeChain To Onboard A Rapid Tokenizing World

With the launch of its No-Code Tokenized Asset Marketplace (MaaS) platform, VeChain has made tremendous progress toward increasing mass adoption of blockchain technology. VeChain’s continuous goal to promote widespread blockchain technology adoption by removing technological hurdles is consistent with this user-friendly strategy.

Since its founding, VeChain has created several use cases powered by blockchain applications. These include product authentification, creating new digital communication channels, provenance and sustainability traceability, and others. This demonstrates its understanding of the tremendous potential that its technologies have for Web 3.

Given the rise in demand for tokenizing Real-World assets (RWAs) solutions, the introduction of MaaS seems appropriate. Furthermore, NFC functionality and support for “Phygitals,” or real-world physical assets with NFT/digital counterparts, will be added later in the platform. 

Specifically, this innovation was created to significantly influence the digital asset market. It aims to provide enterprise and individual builders with an “easy-to-use white-label NFT platform for digital asset sales” and transfers that require little to no programming.

MaaS applications are diverse and address the increasing need for platforms that enable asset tokenization. Blackrock‘s latest application for a Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization fund highlighted this path.  So far, the No-Code Tokenized Asset Marketplace-as-a-Service platform (MaaS) is expected to be fully operational later this year.

VET Is On A Downtrend 

Despite the launch of MaaS, VeChain (VET) is witnessing a daily downtrend of nearly 2%. However, in the weekly timeframe, the crypto asset has increased by over 5%, suggesting an upward move. 

As of the time of writing, VET was trading at $0.0440, with its market cap dropping by 2.78% in the past day. Meanwhile, its trading volume is down by about 24% in the last 24 hours.

In August 2018, during a downside trend in the cryptocurrency market, VET made its market debut. However, following the 2021 bull run, VET rose to the top, peaking at $0.281 before the cycle ended.

VeChain

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Ondo Finance Joins BlackRock Tokenized Fund As Inflows Surpass $160M

BlackRock, one of the largest asset managers globally, has witnessed notable success with its newly launched tokenized money-market fund, BUIDL. The fund, which records shared ownership on the Ethereum (ETH) blockchain, has attracted over $160 million in just one week since its debut. 

BlackRock’s BUIDL Fund

According to a Bloomberg report, the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) primarily invests in cash, US Treasury bills, and repurchase agreements. The fund rewards its holders with a cryptocurrency, BUIDL, valued at $1 per token. 

Shareholders can transfer these tokens to other validated addresses using digital wallets approved by Securitize, BlackRock’s partner for the investment vehicle. The tokenized fund serves several key use cases, including treasury management for crypto companies, support for derivatives of Treasury bills, and acting as collateral for borrowing and trading, thus providing an alternative to stablecoins.

It is worth noting that Securitize Markets, an SEC-registered alternative trading system, plays a critical role in facilitating the transfer of tokens between market participants. 

While the SEC has recently increased its scrutiny of Ethereum’s native token, ETH, Securitize CEO Carlos Domingo emphasizes that the investigations should be separate from the underlying blockchain infrastructure. Domingo also highlights the battle-tested nature of the public Ethereum blockchain, which provides a “robust foundation” for tokenization activities.

As previously reported by our sister website, Bitcoinist, BlackRock has emerged as an advocate for cryptocurrencies and tokenization within mainstream financial institutions. Chairman and CEO Larry Fink believes every financial asset will eventually be tokenized. 

The company’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has already attracted more than $13 billion in inflows since its launch as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) in January. With the BUIDL fund’s launch, BlackRock continues to demonstrate its willingness to explore new digital asset solutions.

Ondo Finance To Transfer $95 Million In Assets To BlackRock

Ondo Finance, a platform specializing in tokenized real-world assets (RWA), has moved $95 million worth of assets to BlackRock’s BUIDL fund. This strategic move enables Ondo Finance to facilitate instant settlements for its US Treasury-backed token, OUSG. 

This makes Ondo Finance a major participant in the BUIDL ecosystem. According to on-chain researcher Tom Wan, it currently holds $15 million worth of BUIDL tokens, which, in addition to those above $95 million, will result in a substantial $110 million worth of BUIDL tokens.  

The researcher noted that this collaboration further strengthens the tokenized US Treasury market, with the potential to reach $1 billion in value. In its announcement, the team behind the Ondo Finance platform summarized:

We’re excited to see BlackRock embracing securities tokenization with the launch of BUIDL, especially its broad cooperation with ecosystem participants. Not only does this further validate our original concept of a tokenized US Treasury fund, but it also bolsters our thesis that tokenization of traditional securities on public blockchains represents the next major step in the evolution of financial markets.

Blackrock

At the time of writing, the native token of Ondo Finance, ONDO, is trading at $0.909, exhibiting a surge of over 4% within the past 24 hours. This positive momentum adds to its impressive price uptrend of 115% recorded over the past 30 days. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Grayscale Submits Revised Application For Ethereum Spot ETF – What’s New?

Asset management firm Grayscale Investments has updated its application for an Ethereum spot ETF (exchange-traded fund) with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Ethereum Spot ETF Case Just As Solid As Bitcoin’s, Grayscale Argues

According to a recent post on X by Craig Salm, Grayscale’s chief legal officer, the asset management firm has revised its 19b-4 form for an Ether spot ETF. Salm claimed that this move was “important” in an effort for Grayscale to list and trade shares of its Ether Trust on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Arca.

The chief legal officer stated in his post that investors “want and deserve access” to Ethereum via a spot exchange-traded product, likening the situation to the Bitcoin ETF story. “We believe the case is just as strong as it was for spot Bitcoin ETFs,” Salm said.

The asset manager is amongst the numerous firms looking to issue the first Ethereum spot ETF in the United States, having filed an application with the SEC on October 10, 2023. However, these ETF applications have faced delays multiple times, with the most recent coming against BlackRock’s filing on March 4, 2024.

As a result, the likelihood of the SEC approving an Ethereum spot ETF has taken a nosedive in recent weeks. Once-optimistic Bloomberg ETF expert Balchunas even revealed in his latest analysis that the ETH funds now have only a 35% chance of approval.

SEC Chairman Faces Pressure Over Crypto Approval

Two US senators of the Democrat party, Sens. Laphonza Butler of California and Jack Reed of Rhode Island, have urged the SEC chairman to avoid approving crypto investment products. In a letter dated March 11, the lawmakers, who are also members of the Senate Banking Committee, asked the Commission to limit future crypto ETF applications.

Following the approval of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs in January, the attention of the crypto public has somewhat turned to whether the SEC will do the same for the Ethereum versions. However, this latest letter from the senate seems to further hurt the chances of an ETH ETF approval.

A part of the letter read:

Retail investors would face enormous risks from ETPs referencing thinly traded cryptocurrencies or cryptocurrencies whose prices are especially susceptible to pump-and-dump or other fraudulent schemes,” they said. “The Commission is under no obligation to approve such products, and given the risk, it should not do so.

As of this writing, the price of the Ethereum token stands at $3,731, reflecting a 1.2% increase in the past day.

Grayscale

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Bitcoin ETFs See Record $1 Billion Inflows, Pushing Price Over $73,500

Yesterday, the Bitcoin price journey resembled a high-intensity rollercoaster ride, initially soaring past the $73,000 mark before encountering a tumultuous liquidation event. This event saw over $361 million worth of leveraged trades unwound, compelling the BTC price to retract sharply to below $68,300.

The drastic price fluctuation primarily affected long position holders—investors who speculated on a continued price rise—with a staggering $258 million wiped out. Subsequently, Bitcoin’s price staged a remarkable V-shaped recovery, during which short sellers found themselves on the losing end, with just over $103 million in positions liquidated.

This data by Coinglass marks the event as the most significant purge of long positions since March 5. At that time, Bitcoin experienced a decline to $60,800 following its climb to a then all-time high of approximately $69,000.

Bitcoin ETFs Register Record $1 Billion Inflows

Perhaps spurred by the opportunity presented by the price dip, investors in spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) engaged in a buying spree, unprecedented in its intensity. For the first time, spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed a daily inflow surpassing $1 billion on Tuesday, March 12, primarily driven by an inflow of $849 million to BlackRock’s IBIT. According to detailed data released by Farside Investors, the total net inflows across all Bitcoin ETFs were at $1045 million (or $1.045 billion).

The second largest Bitcoin ETF to date, Fidelity, saw a rather quiet day  with FBTC taking in only $51.6 million, while Ark Invest ($93 million), Bitwise ($24.6 million), Valkyrie ($39.6 million) and VanEck ($82.9 million) saw relatively strong capital inflows. Notably, Grayscale‘s GBTC saw a waning outflow of just $79 million.

Bitcoin analyst Alessandro Ottaviani shared his insights on X, underscoring the magnitude of these inflows, “1 Billy of Total net Inflow! ONE BILLION DOLLARS! […] In the last twelve trading days, The Nine inflow has been $9.2b, with an average of $768m per day. Just imagine if we keep this pace and it is confirmed that GBCT outflow is almost exhausted.”

Crypto Quant analyst Maartunn provided additional context to the inflow’s impact, revealing, “JUST IN: The Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has experienced its highest inflows ever, with an additional 14,706.2 BTC.” This statement further emphasizes the substantial increase in Bitcoin’s demand, potentially setting it up for a major supply squeeze.

Adding to the conversation, crypto analyst @venturefounder suggested potential future price movements based on the current trend, “Absolute Bitcoin madness […] The 5-day moving average net inflow has fully recovered to peak. So… probably HIGHER. If this continues, $80-90k by the end of month is not far fetched. No correction has lasted longer than 24 hours on the weekdays. Interestingly, the first major correction of the 2021 cycle came when price went 2x previous ATH. So could we see no major correction until $120k?”

At press time, BTC already surpassed the $73,500 mark and traded at $73,392.

Bitcoin price