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History Favors Bitcoin Bulls Despite Crypto Hedge Funds Increasing Shorts

Bitcoin may be dripping lower at spot rates. Still, one analyst is unfazed, expecting the coin to reverse recent losses and snap up firmly before peaking in December 2024. At spot rates, BTC is down roughly 11% from 2024 peaks and struggling to generate sufficient buying pressure, looking at the formation in the daily chart.

Will History Support Bitcoin And Rally To Fresh Highs?

Taking to X, the analyst highlights historical price patterns using the 2-week Fisher Transform indicator, a tool for picking out potential reversal zones like double tops or bottoms. Though the technical indicator lags, it has accurately picked out peaks in the past. 

In 2021, when Bitcoin soared to over $69,000, the Fisher Transfer indicator printed a signal, highlighting potential peaks. In the coming weeks following this signal, prices crashed. 

Fisher transform indicator on BTC | Source: Analyst on X

By the end of 2022, Bitcoin had fallen to as low as $16,000, accelerated by the collapse of FTX and the bankruptcy of several other popular crypto hedge funds, including Three Arrow Capital (3AC).

The analyst also emphasizes the importance of the indicator in differentiating between a double top, mirroring 2017 and 2021, and a potential single peak later this year. 

Bitcoin prices trending sideways on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

Presently, the trader said prices are approaching 2017 levels. Then, prices created what the analyst described as a “more subtle initial rise” before peaking six months later at over $20,000. 

If this leads, and the indicator “pauses” where it is, Bitcoin will likely record a “single top.” However, only time will tell where this top will be at.

Hedge Funds Were Selling At Tops?

This prediction comes amid significant bearish bets by leveraged hedge funds. Data from the United States Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals that these funds held record “short” positions in Bitcoin futures contracts by last week. 

Observers note this was the largest short position since 2017, at over 16,000 contracts. By shorting, they expected prices to dump, which is precisely what’s happening at spot rates. 

However, even as hedge funds short, another analyst, responding to the trend, said the futures premium remained high. This is a development that some of these crypto hedge funds are taking advantage of.

The number of shorts could increase in the days ahead as United States Federal Reserve officials appeared to be hawkish and upbeat economic data started pouring in. Being a data-driven central bank, the Federal Reserve might not slash rates as fast as initially projected.

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Crypto Exchange KuCoin Violated Anti-Money Laundering Laws, U.S. Charges

U.S. federal prosecutors charged crypto exchange KuCoin and two of its founders with violating anti-money laundering laws on Tuesday, saying the exchange operated in the U.S., lied to at least one of its investors about operating in the U.S. and failed to both register with U.S. government entities and maintain an anti-money laundering program.

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1inch DAO Makes DeFi History, Votes To Onboard Legal Counsel

In a historic move that sets a precedent for decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), 1inch DAO, the entity behind the 1inch Network, has voted to secure “legal advisory services” from STORM Partners. Notably, this decision comes amid growing regulatory scrutiny on the crypto and decentralized finance (DeFi) sectors.

1inch DAO Votes To Onboard STORM Partners For Legal Advisory Services

Following voting that ended on January 9–overwhelmingly supported by the 1inch community–holders decided to onboard STORM Partners. This marks a significant step forward in the DAO’s efforts to navigate the complex legal landscape and protect its members. 

1inch DAO voting results | Source: snapshot.org

With STORM Partners on board, 1inch DAO becomes the first autonomous organization in the broader crypto ecosystem to access expert guidance on compliance, governance, and legal defense. Out of this landmark move, the DAO will receive expert legal advice.

As such, they will strive to operate within the confines of applicable laws and regulations in the United States and beyond. 

This move is particularly noteworthy given the recent United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concerns over the crypto industry and the DeFi sector. From lawsuits, the agency noted that individuals who engage in illegal activities, including offering unregistered securities, via a DAO could be sued individually.

1INCH price trending downward on the daily chart | Source: 1INCHUSDT on Binance, TradingView

To illustrate, following a lawsuit from the SEC, BarnBridge DAO agreed to stop selling what the agency said were “unregistered securities.” As part of the settlement, the DAO and its two founders, Tyler Ward and Troy Murray, agreed to pay $1.7 million in damages.

Lawsuits Have Devastated DAOs In The Past

By onboarding legal counsel, 1inch DAO proactively addresses these concerns. It also aims to protect community members against the bruises of the law.

The DAO said the decision was a “deliberate effort to balance preserving decentralization and addressing operational challenges.” Through STORM Partners, the DAO will have a framework and receive legal support, laying a path for others to follow.

This decision considers the adverse impact of a lawsuit from a government agency like the SEC. In June 2023, US District Judge William H. Orrick ruled in favor of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), agreeing that Ooki DAO issued unregistered commodities.

In a statement, the 1inchDAO new legal partner, STORM, stated the following, hinting at the services and the way they will attempt to protect the entity:

Our team will cover, among others, cross-jurisdiction regulatory compliance, contractual agreements, DAO governance framework, members’ liability, legal personality, asset protection, intellectual property, enforcement of rights and defence against external claims. Our legal representation, underpinned by community-guided Power of Attorney, is meant to ensure the DAO’s stability, efficiency and longevity.

Furthermore, by onboarding a legal advisor, the community aims to protect the DAO’s decentralization while maintaining “regulatory compliance.” It remains to be seen if other DAOs will follow suit and vote to elect a legal representative for their communities.

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Is A Mega Bull Run Incoming? Whale Transfers Over $780 Million Of Stablecoin To Binance

Data Nerd Data on December 13 shows that over the past 24 hours, the wallet “0xea8” moved 200 million BUSD from Binance, the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange by client count.

The whale transfer caught the attention of keen crypto users, who also noted that the transfer was soon followed by a deposit of 99.95 million FDUSD, a stablecoin supported by the exchange.

Whale Address Accumulating FUSD Stablecoin On Binance

That the address is shuffling and accumulating large amounts of stablecoins is noteworthy. Data Nerd Data shows that the address has transferred over 781 million FDUSD to Binance in the last four months.

During this period, from around September, the crypto market has been recovering, edging higher on the back of improving fundamental factors.

The accumulation of over $781 million of stablecoin by the wallet controlled by an unknown individual or entity is overly bullish for crypto and Bitcoin prices.

It could suggest that a large institutional investor or group of investors is amassing stablecoins, potentially preparing for a significant market move.

Historically, large movements of stablecoins into centralized exchanges have often preceded major bull runs. 

Stablecoins are vital for crypto, ensuring there is enough liquidity. Since most are pegged to the USD and can be backed by fiat, these tokens, mostly minted on Ethereum or Tron, are often used as a gateway to crypto. Therefore, their accumulation can signal increased institutional interest and potential buying pressure.

Is A Mega Bitcoin And Crypto Rally In The Making?

That the wallet address is fortifying its FDUSD base reinforces the notion that institutional investors, ahead of the possible approval of the first batch of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, could be increasingly warming up and preparing for leading coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum to extend gains in 2024. 

When writing on December 13, Bitcoin and top altcoin prices are relatively stable. To illustrate, Bitcoin is trending higher, stable above the $41,000 level after pulling back from 2023 highs of around $44,000. Crypto participants are bullish and expect Bitcoin prices to float even higher in 2024 before halving.

Bitcoin price trending upward on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

Binance will stop supporting BUSD in 2024. The exchange has also delisted USDC. Accordingly, USDT and FUSD are popular on Binance. However, the exchange continues to be on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) crosshairs. 

In late November, the Department of Justice (DOJ) issued a $4.3 billion penalty on Binance as settlement with the SEC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and other aggrieved agencies in the United States. The deal also saw Changpeng Zhao, the founder of Binance, step down from the CEO role.

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Boomers Interested In Bitcoin, Market Won’t Allow BlackRock To Buy BTC Below $60k

As institutional interest in Bitcoin grows, Fidelity and BlackRock’s proposed spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) faces an unexpected hurdle: the crypto market’s unwillingness to let go of the coin at bargain prices. 

Bitcoin To $60,000 In Progress?

According to Mike Alfred, who claims to be a value investor and a board director, the market will “unlikely” allow BlackRock to purchase BTC below $60,000. Taking to X on December 4, Alfred said BlackRock and other Wall Street players keen on issuing spot Bitcoin ETFs would have to “buy for Boomer’s 401k plans for at least $60,000.” 

This preview stems from the rapidly growing demand among institutional investors, as seen by the number of Wall Street players willing to issue complex derivatives tailored for, among other investors, “baby boomers,” most of whom are “approaching retirement.” With their substantial retirement savings, baby boomers increasingly recognize BTC’s potential as a hedge against inflation and a store of value.

Following Federal Reserve intervention during the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation rose to multi-year levels in 2021. To preserve purchasing power, the central bank began hiking interest rates. Although inflation has fallen and the economy stabilized, it remains higher than the target of 2%. The Fed continues to track this metric and may further intervene by raising rates to lower inflation. This might impact Bitcoin prices, as seen in the past months.

Nonetheless, the potential influx of boomer money into Bitcoin via a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved derivatives product is a big boost for the coin. Though the SEC has yet to authorize multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs, the crypto and Bitcoin market expects the strict regulator to greenlight the first product in the next few weeks. 

BlackRock And Company To Buy BTC At A Premium

Accordingly, ahead of this milestone development for the Bitcoin and crypto market, Alfred thinks BlackRock, Fidelity, and other players won’t secure Bitcoin at spot rates. Instead, the market anticipates that BlackRock, one of the world’s largest digital asset managers, will make their “bi-weekly purchases at prices above $60,000.”

The coin is trading at April 2022 levels, ripping above $40,000 over the weekend as bulls step up. Looking at the BTC candlestick arrangement on the daily chart, the first clear resistance is around $48,000. 

Bitcoin price trending higher on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

The coin trades within a bullish breakout formation following gains above $32,000. As buyers step up and investors anticipate the SEC approving the first batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the coin will likely continue increasing toward all-time highs of around $70,000.