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Where Are We In This Bitcoin Cycle? Galaxy Lead Researcher Answers

In a comprehensive analysis shared via X (formerly Twitter), Alex Thorn, the Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy, delved into the intricacies of the current Bitcoin market cycle, answering the question “Where Are We In This Bitcoin Cycle?” As Bitcoin trades robustly around $62,000, with a notable spike to $64.000 yesterday, the crypto landscape is witnessing unprecedented dynamics, marked by a surge in ETF inflows, strategic acquisitions by corporate entities, and a palpable shift in investor sentiment towards digital assets.

Thorn emphasized how different this cycle is:

Effectively, the bull runs of 2017 and 2020 hadn’t yet begun at this stage in Bitcoin’s supply schedule.

52 days before 2nd Halving (9-JUL-16) BTCUSD $455.22 (-59.86% from ATH)
52 days before 3rd Halving (11-MAY-20) BTCUSD $6,174 (-68.56% from ATH)
52 days before 4th Halving (20-APR-24) BTCUSD $59,330 (-12.16% from ATH)

Why This Bitcoin Cycle Is Different

Central to his analysis is the record-breaking influx of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs, with Thorn highlighting, “The BTC ETFs took in a whopping net $576m of BTC yesterday (Tuesday Feb. 27), with BlackRock alone seeing $520m of inflows, its largest ever day.” This significant movement of funds not only underscores the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin but also marks a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency’s journey towards mainstream financial recognition.

A key aspect of Thorn’s analysis is the unwavering strength of Bitcoin’s long-term holder base, which he estimates to hold about 75% of the total BTC supply. “Long-term holders are still mostly holding strong,” Thorn notes, emphasizing the community’s resilience and faith in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. This demographic, characterized by their ‘diamond hands’, plays a crucial role in stabilizing the market and buffering against the volatility that often defines the crypto space.

Bitcoin HODLers

Thorn further elaborates on the analytical tools and metrics that provide insight into Bitcoin’s market behavior. He introduces the MVRV Z-Score, a novel approach to understanding the cyclicality of Bitcoin’s price action by comparing its market value to its realized value. This metric offers a window into the perceived overvaluation or undervaluation of Bitcoin at any given point. Currently, the MVRV Z-Score is close to 2, while previous cycle tops saw the metric spike to 8 (in 2021) or even above 12 (in prior halving cycles).

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score

Addressing the speculation around the acceleration of the Bitcoin cycle, Thorn firmly dispels concerns that the market is prematurely peaking. He argues against the notion that we are “speedrunning the ‘cycle’”, instead asserting that the advent of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States represents a transformative shift with far-reaching implications. “This time is different,” Thorn asserts, pointing to the ETFs’ disruption of traditional Bitcoin price cycles and their impact on investor behavior and intra-crypto dynamics.

The Spot Bitcoin ETF Effect

Thorn underscored the transformative impact of Bitcoin ETFs, positing that we are merely at the beginning of a significant shift in how Bitcoin is accessed and invested in, particularly by the institutional sector. “Despite incredible volumes and flows, there’s plenty of reason to believe that the Bitcoin ETF story is still just getting started,” he stated, pointing to the untapped potential within the wealth management sector.

In their October 2023 report titled “Sizing the Market for the Bitcoin ETF,” Galaxy laid out a compelling case for the future growth of Bitcoin ETFs. The report highlights that wealth managers and financial advisors represent the primary net new accessible market for these vehicles, offering a previously unavailable avenue for allocating client capital to BTC exposure.

The magnitude of this untapped market is substantial. According to Galaxy’s research, there is approximately $40 trillion of assets under management (AUM) across banks and broker/dealers that has yet to activate access to spot BTC ETFs. This includes $27.1 trillion managed by broker-dealers, $11.9 trillion by banks, and $9.3 trillion by registered investment advisors, cumulating to a total US Wealth Management AUM of $48.3 trillion as of October 2023. This data underscores the vast potential for Bitcoin ETFs to penetrate deeper into the financial ecosystem, catalyzing a new wave of investment flows into Bitcoin.

Thorn further speculated on the upcoming April round of post-ETF-launch 13F filings, suggesting that these filings might reveal significant Bitcoin allocations by some of the largest names in the investment world. “In April, we will also get the first round of post-ETF-launch 13F filings, and (I’m just guessing here…) we are likely to see some huge names have allocated to Bitcoin,” Thorn anticipated. This development, he argues, could create a feedback loop where new platforms and investments drive higher prices, which in turn attracts more investment.

The implications of this feedback loop are profound. As more wealth management platforms begin to offer access to Bitcoin ETFs, the influx of new capital could significantly impact BTC’s price dynamics, liquidity, and overall market structure. This transition represents a key moment in the maturation of Bitcoin as an asset class, moving from a speculative investment to a staple in diversified portfolios managed by financial advisors and wealth managers.

We Are Still Early

Thorn’s optimism extends beyond the immediate market indicators to the broader implications of Bitcoin’s integration into the financial mainstream. He anticipates a new all-time high for Bitcoin in the near term, fueled by a combination of factors including the ETFs’ momentum, increasing acceptance of BTC as a legitimate asset class, and the anticipatory buzz surrounding the upcoming halving event. “All this is to say, my answer to that burning question – where are we in the cycle? – is that we haven’t even begun to reach the heights this is likely to go,” he concludes.

Thorn’s analysis culminates in a bullish forecast for Bitcoin. As the community stands on the cusp of the fourth BTC halving, Thorn’s insights offer a compelling vision of a market poised for unprecedented growth, driven by a confluence of technological innovation, regulatory evolution, and shifting global economic currents. “Bitcoin is prime time now, and while it might be hard to believe, things are just starting to get exciting,” Thorn declares, capturing the essence of a market at the threshold of a new era.

At press time, BTC traded at $62,065.

Bitcoin price

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Galaxy CEO Cautions Bitcoin May Fall To $42,000 Ahead Of Major Rally

In an exclusive interview with CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, provided an in-depth analysis of the current state and future trajectory of Bitcoin amidst a rapidly evolving financial landscape. The conversation spanned a variety of topics, including the recent surge in Bitcoin prices following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on cryptocurrency markets.

Bitcoin Amid Market Consolidation And Institutional Adoption

Opening the discussion, Novogratz touched on the remarkable rally Bitcoin has experienced, while also suggesting a potential consolidation phase. “We’ve come a long way fast, both in US stocks and in crypto… It wouldn’t surprise me if there’s some consolidation,” he stated.

Despite this, he emphasized the significant milestone achieved with the opening of the institutional and Retail Investment Advisor (RIA) channels to Bitcoin, particularly through ETFs. “We’ve got baby boomers who own most of the wealth in America, and they’re getting their first easy access to Bitcoin… And I don’t think that’s going to stop,” Novogratz elaborated, underlining the transformative impact of ETFs on Bitcoin accessibility.

When probed about the pace at which financial advisors could start recommending Bitcoin, Novogratz offered an optimistic forecast: “I would tell you at least double in six months.” He attributed this to both demand from clients and the inevitable adaptation of large platforms. “Their customers are calling and bitching at them and saying, we want to buy Bitcoin with you,” he quoted, highlighting the grassroots demand driving institutional platforms towards crypto adoption.

Addressing potential short-term price movements, Novogratz candidly acknowledged the possibility of a downturn. “It could be some regulatory kerfuffle, it could just be the market got a little long and you get people scared,” he speculated, pinpointing a price range of “$45,000… $42,000” as the potential downside. This acknowledgment of volatility underscores his realistic view of the crypto market’s susceptibility to external pressures and internal dynamics.

BTC Price Targets

Looking ahead, Novogratz responded to Tom Lee’s prediction of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year’s end with cautious optimism. While hesitant to commit to a specific number, he concurred that Bitcoin is likely to retest its all-time highs, emphasizing the market’s momentum when it attracts new buyers.

“You know, when markets get new buyers and start breaking out, it’s hard to have a price prediction,” he remarked, suggesting that surpassing the $69,000 mark could open the door to unprecedented price levels like $125,000 to $150,000, contingent on broader economic conditions such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies.

Delving into Bitcoin’s correlation with the macroeconomic environment, Novogratz presented a nuanced perspective. He acknowledged Bitcoin’s dual identity as both a macro asset and a nascent technology in an adoption cycle.

On the topic of Bitcoin’s correlation with broader economic indicators, Novogratz highlighted the dual narrative that has come to define Bitcoin’s market behavior. “It’s a macro asset…And the second, we’re early on in the life cycle, so there’s an adoption cycle,” he pointed out.

Thus, he emphasized the unique position of Bitcoin at the intersection of a burgeoning asset class and a macroeconomic hedge. He added, “Right now, this is all adoption. This is new buyers coming in and being told the big-picture story that you need to have this in your portfolio.”

Bitcoin price

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Analyst Foresees Bitcoin Downtrend Until GBTC Is Liquidated

Chris J Terry, a cryptocurrency analyst and enthusiast, has revealed his insights on the price action of Bitcoin, predicting a continuous decline in the price of the crypto asset.

Analyst Says Bitcoin Will Continue To Drop

The crypto analyst shared his insights regarding Bitcoin with the cryptocurrency community on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), anticipating a possible “continuation of a flat or declining trend.”

He highlighted that the downtrend will continue until Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is fully “liquidated.” According to him, the liquidation will be possible with a whopping $25 billion worth of selling activity over the next few weeks.

Terry cites Grayscale’s choice to keep Bitcoin ETF fees at 1.5% as the cause of what he sees to be the “biggest strategic error” in cryptocurrency history. This implies that Grayscale’s action might have a long-term impact on the crypto market and may prevent wider adoption.

The post read:

Looks like the BTC price will continue flat/down until GBTC is liquidated, $25B of selling over the next few weeks. Grayscale decision to keep ETF fees at 1.5% will go down as the biggest strategic error in crypto history. Greedy idiots.

His analysis emphasizes how investment vehicles are interconnected and how this affects the state of the cryptocurrency market as a whole. However, this has attracted disbelief from a few famous figures in the community.

One of the figures who has expressed disbelief is Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz. He asserted that he “disagrees” with Chris Terry’s analysis because although Novogratz experts some selling pressure activity, he believes investors will move to other ETFs, especially supporting BTCO. Novogratz also pointed out that the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) is his favorite among the products.

Furthermore, Novogratz highlights the significance of maintaining perspective in light of transient market conditions. He noted that the latest development will facilitate older investors’ or boomers’ entry into the crypto landscape.

In addition, he has highlighted the potential for enhanced leverage by having 4×5 exposure to Bitcoin via BTCO. He then shared an optimistic look, noting that “BTC will go higher in the next six months after this indigestion.”

BTC Sees $25 Million Outflows 

A recent report from Coinshares has revealed that Bitcoin witnessed an outflow of a whopping $25 million. Coinshares shared the information in its most recent weekly “Digital Asset Fund Flows.”

It also noted a massive $11.8 billion in BTC trading volume last week. According to Coinshares, this is seven times more than the average weekly trading activity recorded in 2023.

There were notable withdrawals from digital asset investment products last week, totaling about $24.7 million. Notably, this spike in trading activity indicates that ETFs account for 63% of all Bitcoin volumes on reliable exchanges.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $40,827, indicating a decline of 2.16% in the past day. Despite the price drop, its trading volume is currently up by over 81% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin