Posted on

Bitcoin Supply Metric Touches New All-Time High, Time For Reversal?

Bitcoin has been named the best performer among asset classes in 2023, but the cryptocurrency is still struggling to break new levels in its price. Despite the current bearish sentiment, many analysts have hinted and predicted a bull run in the coming months, especially as the market awaits the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. 

This has probably prompted many investors to hold on to their coins, as on-chain metrics have shown that the amount of Bitcoin supply idling recently reached a new all-time high. 

Unmoved Bitcoin Supply Reaches Record High

The industry expects the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs to ignite the next bullish run for the price of Bitcoin. Although the SEC has so far rejected a number of requests for Bitcoin ETFs, many analysts believe it will not be long until one is accepted. 

Considering Bitcoin’s dominance of the entire crypto market capitalization, a spike in Bitcoin’s price is expected to flow into all other cryptocurrencies. As a result, investors have been keeping their holdings in expectation of a future price increase. 

Recent data has shown that 94.8% of the total Bitcoin supply has not moved in the past month, indicating a new all-time high for the metric. 

Similarly, a recent post by on-chain intelligence platform Glassnode alerts revealed that the amount of HODLed or lost Bitcoin reached a 5-year high of 7,906,288.227 BTC.

The overall Bitcoin net flow into exchanges has decreased by 862.42 BTC ($23.27 million) in the past 24 hours, according to chart insights provided by IntoTheBlock. While this is relatively small compared to Bitcoin’s market cap, it shows investor mood might be changing into a bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin supply metric

Time For Reversal?

Bitcoin’s price just rebounded up to $27,100 after failing to gain traction above the $27,800 resistance in the midst of escalating Israel-Hamas tensions in the Middle East. Despite this, BTC still remains the best-performing investment asset this year, outperforming stocks and bonds with its year-to-date (YTD) return of 63.3%.  

Some investors view unmoved Bitcoin as a sign of solid faith in the network and adoption of a long-term mindset. Whatever the reason, Bitcoin’s unmoved supply metric is worth watching as an indicator of holder sentiment and potential future price pressure. 

Recent happenings, particularly the tension of an oncoming recession in the US, have prompted billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones to assert that this is the best time to buy Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Unmoved supply)

Posted on

Crypto Whales’ Big Bet: An Examination Of Their 3 New Altcoin Targets

Savvy crypto investors—often dubbed “crypto whales” due to their sizable holdings, which can influence market trends have recently been setting their sights on a select group of altcoins, potentially aiming to capitalize on their prospective gains.

Recent developments, such as the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hint at pausing rate hikes and speculations around the approval of more futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S., are suspected to be the catalysts steering crypto whale interests, according to Marti, a recognized voice from the Altcoin Buzz YouTube channel.

Notably, Macroeconomic events have always played a critical role in shaping the dynamics of the financial markets. Cryptocurrencies, while unique in their operations, are no exception to this influence.

LINK: Chainlink’s Surge Attracts Big Crypto Players

Chainlink’s native coin, LINK, is turning heads and emerging as a prime focus for these heavyweight investors. Marti identifies LINK as one of September’s top performers among leading cryptocurrencies, registering roughly 30% growth.

Marti says this gain can be attributed to several developments, including Chainlink’s tokenization collaboration with SWIFT, the international payment rail, and a growing interest in the real-world assets sector.

Whale activities around LINK have also been quite noteworthy. On-chain data by IntoTheBlock reveals a jump from 30 whale transactions on September 17 to 218 by October 2. A notable transaction involved a purchase of 424,443 LINK tokens, a transaction value of about $3.25 million.

Diving Deeper: The Rise Of MKR And BCH

Maker (MKR), another altcoin, has experienced a significant uptick in large-scale transactions, coinciding with the Fed’s rate halt announcement in September. Marti sheds light on the surge in whale activities around MKR, highlighting that significant transactions leaped from nine on September 19 to a 6-month high of 102 by October 2.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH), a staple in the crypto realm, hasn’t been left out of the whale frenzy either. Marti parallels BCH’s current scenario and its June 2023 bull rally, which propelled BCH to a yearly zenith of $329.

Recent on-chain data underscores this enthusiasm, showing whales’ noticeable accumulation in BCH holdings. From September 21 to October 4, there was a notable increment in their total balances, suggesting an acquisition of an additional 150,000 BCH.

Furthermore, while LINK, MKR, and BCH have seen positive price trends over the past month—mirroring the whale accumulation metrics—each has also faced its share of downturns.

Notably, LINK and MKR emerged as the top performers among the trio, registering monthly gains of 24.8% and 27.3%, respectively. In comparison, BCH posted a modest rise of 16.2%.

Chainlink (LINK) price chart on TradingView amid crypto news

Yet, it’s worth noting that over the past week, all three altcoins have experienced declines: LINK decreased by 4.4%, MKR by 2.2%, and BCH by 6.2%.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

Posted on

Bitcoin Could See A 50% Rise Based On This, Analyst Explains

An analyst has explained that a pattern in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) could suggest a potential 50% rise for BTC may be ahead.

Bitcoin & GBTC Have Seen A Decoupling In Recent Months

In a new post on X, analyst James V. Straten has discussed the correlation between GBTC and BTC that has been present over the years. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is an investment vehicle that holds Bitcoin and allows exposure to these holdings through its shares.

The chart below shows the trend in the percentage performance of Bitcoin and GBTC, as well as the correlation coefficient between them, over the past year.

Bitcoin & GBTC

The “correlation coefficient” here refers to a metric that tells us how tied the prices of any two assets are. When this metric has a positive value, the given commodities show positive correlations as they replicate each other’s moves. The closer the metric is to 1, the stronger this relationship is.

On the other hand, negative values imply the assets are responding to each other’s moves by moving in the opposite direction. The strongest negative correlation occurs at a value of -1.

Naturally, when the correlation coefficient is around zero, there isn’t any correlation between the commodities, as their prices move independently.

From the above graph, it’s apparent that Bitcoin and GBTC have often had a correlation coefficient close to 1, implying that there has been a robust positive correlation between the two.

There have been some temporary periods of deviation, mainly during drawdowns in the cryptocurrency’s price and other significant events like the SVB collapse. The correlation reverted to the norm soon after these, however.

Straten says this correlation is especially striking in a 5-year timeframe, where it becomes 100%. The analyst also notes, however, that the two assets have decoupled since June.

As is visible in the chart, GBTC has enjoyed some sharp uptrend recently, while BTC has been mostly flat. GBTC’s performance currently stands at +81% during the past year, while Bitcoin is up about 43%.

“GBTC will be the first to be approved for the spot ETF before Blackrock and others,” says Straten, referring to what British HODL, another analyst, said earlier. “Price action agrees with this. Irrespective of whether it’s late Q3 or early Q4, it’s a six-month window from now.”

Based on this, the analyst believes that either Bitcoin will have to close up the gap created between it and GBTC since June, which would mean a price jump of around 50%, or GBTC would have to come down towards BTC. Straten believes the latter scenario to be unlikely, however.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has declined over the past few days as its price has dropped to just $27,100.

Bitcoin Price Chart