Australia’s spot Bitcoin ETFs could see $3 billion to $4 billion of inflows within the first three years, according to Monochrome CEO Jeff Yew.
DTCC rules out collateral for Bitcoin-linked ETFs
This notice means that exchange-traded funds and similar investment instruments with Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as underlying assets will not be assigned any collateral value.
Mainland China investors won’t be able to buy Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs
Mainland Chinese citizens will not be able to purchase Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in Hong Kong because mainland China banned crypto transactions years ago.
Bitcoin Stable Above $64K While ETF Outflows Hit $200M
BTC Stable Above $64K While ETF Outflows Hit $200 Million
Boomers to pour $300B into crypto markets — Morgan Creek Capital
Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko believes the full impact of Bitcoin ETF adoption has yet to be realized, as boomers will continue to gain more exposure to digital assets.
SEC reviews new rules for Bitcoin options trading
The Securities and Exchange Commission is evaluating whether exchanges’ current surveillance and enforcement mechanisms can handle Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs).
SEC Anticipated To Reject Spot Ethereum ETFs In Upcoming Decision, ETH Price Takes 5% Hit
Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has experienced a significant 5% price drop. This drop comes amid growing speculation that the highly anticipated Ethereum ETFs will likely be rejected by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the upcoming May deadline.
US Bitcoin ETF Issuers Brace For SEC’s Expected Denial
According to a recent Reuters report, various US Bitcoin ETF issuers and firms anticipate the SEC’s denial of their applications to launch ETFs tied to the price of ETH.
These expectations have been fueled by “discouraging meetings” between the applicants and the regulatory agency in recent weeks, as disclosed by four individuals familiar with the matter.
Prominent investment firms such as VanEck, ARK Investment Management, and seven other issuers have submitted filings with the SEC to list ETFs that would track the spot price of Ethereum.
As the first in line, VanEck’s and ARK’s applications are subject to the SEC’s decisions by May 23 and May 24, respectively.
The sources involved in the meetings between Bitcoin ETF issuers and the SEC have reported that the discussions have been primarily “one-sided,” with agency staff not engaging in substantive details about the proposed products.
This starkly contrasts the intensive and detailed discussions between issuers and the agency before the SEC’s landmark approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.
The issuers argued during the meetings that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum futures-based ETFs by the SEC in October set a precedent for the spot ETH products. They also made efforts to address potential regulatory concerns.
Despite their arguments, the report notes that the SEC staff did not clarify specific concerns or engage in meaningful dialogue, further indicating a possible denial of the requests.
Setback For Crypto Industry
If these expectations materialize, it would be a setback for the cryptocurrency industry, which had hoped that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs would pave the way for similar products and contribute to the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies.
According to Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF analysis at data firm VettaFi, the likely delay in approval or rejection until later in 2024 or beyond has left the regulatory landscape uncertain.
While some issuers have expressed their intention to submit additional disclosure paperwork to continue the conversation with the SEC, the overall sentiment indicates a growing belief that the applications will be rejected.
VanEck CEO Jan van Eck has already stated that the company’s application will likely be rejected, while ARK Investment Management has yet to comment.
Rejected Ethereum ETFs Could Spark Potential Court Battles
Several applicants expect the SEC to cite broader issues, such as the nature and depth of statistical data on the underlying ETH market, as reasons for their decision in the event of ETF rejections.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, which has filed for a spot in Ethereum ETF, believes that the SEC may require more time to observe Ethereum futures and gather additional data.
Industry insiders further speculate that rejecting Ethereum ETFs could potentially lead to legal action, with one source suggesting that the courts may get involved before Ethereum ETFs eventually become a reality.
The anticipated rejection has already influenced the price of Ethereum, with Hong Fang, president of the crypto exchange OKX, stating that the cryptocurrency is experiencing downward pressure as market participants factor in the likelihood of a negative outcome.
Currently, ETH is trading at $3,100, further highlighting the cryptocurrency’s persistent downtrend over broader time frames. Over the past fourteen and thirty days, the token has experienced significant declines of 12% and 14%, respectively.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Morgan Stanley May Soon Allow Brokers to Pitch Bitcoin ETFs to Customers: Report
The move may bring fresh energy and capital into the spot ETFs.
Bitwise CIO Unveils 5 Major Forecasts For Bitcoin 2028 Halving, Anticipates A 280% Price Surge
Bitwise Chief Information Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan recently shared five interesting predictions for the next Halving of the Bitcoin (BTC) network, scheduled for 2028. In a comprehensive report, Hougan sheds light on the potential transformations for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
New Investors And ETFs As Catalysts
One of Hougan’s key predictions is that Bitcoin’s volatility will significantly decline by 50%. He argues that the entry of new investors through the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market will drive this decline.
Hougan said that as financial advisors, family offices, and institutions enter the Bitcoin market, their different investment behaviors – such as portfolio rebalancing and steady drip investments – could introduce counter-cyclical flows, ultimately dampening Bitcoin’s volatility.
Hougan’s second prediction revolves around the allocation of Bitcoin in portfolios. He believes that 5% allocations to Bitcoin will become commonplace in target-date portfolios. As BTC’s volatility decreases and becomes more attractive to institutional investors, Hougan expects a rise in typical portfolio allocations.
The Bitwise CIO predicts that Bitcoin ETFs will attract over $200 billion in inflows. He highlights their impressive growth and cites their status as the fastest-growing new ETF category of all time.
Hougan suggests that the ETF market is still in its early stages, with national wirehouses and institutions just beginning their due diligence. Drawing parallels with the rise of gold ETFs, which experienced year-after-year growth in net flows, he anticipates a similar trend for Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin Price Path Toward $250,000
In an intriguing projection, Hougan suggests that central banks will allocate funds to Bitcoin before the next Halving event. He notes that central banks have historically been significant investors in gold, accumulating substantial amounts of the metal.
However, with Bitcoin’s characteristics as non-debt money and its functional advantages over gold regarding payments and settlement, Hougan believes central banks will be increasingly drawn to Bitcoin. Hougan further noted on this matter:
There is also an element of game theory here. A major central bank adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset would be a game-changer for Bitcoin and, I believe, would contribute to a dramatic increase in prices. Will one central bank try to front-run the others?
Hougan’s final prediction revolves around Bitcoin’s price. He forecasts that Bitcoin will trade above $250,000 by 2028, an increase of nearly 280% from current levels.
The Bitwise CIO attributes Bitcoin’s previous exponential growth to its transition from a speculative asset to one with real-world utility.
Factors such as declining volatility, improved custody options, low correlations to traditional stocks, enhanced accessibility through ETFs, and growing institutional adoption all contribute to Hougan’s optimism regarding Bitcoin’s future progress. Hougan concluded by stating:
With the ETFs launched and gathering assets—and major Wall Street firms lining up behind bitcoin—I suspect the asset will continue to move further into the mainstream. At $250,000, bitcoin would be a $5 trillion asset. Could it go higher? Of course. But $250,000 would represent solid progress between halvings, and I think we’ll see at least that.
Currently trading at $64,500, BTC is down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours after retesting the $67,000 mark on Tuesday and failing to consolidate above that level.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Spot Bitcoin, Ether ETFs Get Official Approval in Hong Kong; ‘Potential Fee War’ Unfolding, Says Analyst
One of the issuers waived management fees for the first six months, undercutting rival offerings.
Hong Kong Bitcoin and Ether ETFs officially approved to start trading on April 30
Hong Kong’s financial regulator has officially approved the first batch of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs for trading.
Grayscale Reveals 0.15% Fees For Its Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF
Bitcoin ETF provider Grayscale has provided some illustrative details of its spin-off fund, the Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), including a more competitive 0.15% fee than the uplisted mothership GBTC product, according to a pro forma financials in its latest filing.
Bitcoin Halving: Anticipating Price Impact, Miner Challenges, And Long-Term Outlook
The highly anticipated Bitcoin Halving event is close, bringing with it heightened expectations regarding the long-term impact on the Bitcoin price.
There are concerns, however, that this quadrennial event may already be priced in, as Bitcoin recently reached an unprecedented all-time high of $73,700 on March 14.
This surge broke the pattern of previous Halvings, where Bitcoin had never surpassed its previous ATH before the event. However, historical data reveals significant price increases in the year following previous Halvings.
Experts Predict Delayed Bitcoin Halving Price Impact
Analysts argue that the compounding impact of reduced issuance takes several months to materialize, suggesting that the Halving itself may not prompt a significant rally before or immediately after the event.
Deutsche Bank analysts share this sentiment, highlighting that substantial price increases have typically occurred in the run-up to previous Halvings rather than immediately after them.
Another factor to consider is the increased production costs for Bitcoin miners resulting from the Halving. As the mining reward decreases, participating in the mining process becomes less profitable.
This has historically led to a decline in the hashrate, the total computational power used for Bitcoin mining. JPMorgan analysts predict that production costs could rise to an average of $42,000 after the Halving.
One JPMorgan analyst wrote, “This estimate is also the level we envisage Bitcoin prices drifting towards once Bitcoin-Halving-induced euphoria subsides after April.”
While these factors may influence short-term price movement, historical data reveals that the price of Bitcoin has experienced significant increases in the year following previous Halvings.
The respective price gains for the three previous halvings were 8,760%, 2,570%, and 594%. However, it’s important to note that each successive halving has a diminishing impact on the new supply of Bitcoin.
Mining Industry Shake-Up
In the mining sector, Halving could lead to significant revenue losses, estimated to be around $10 billion annually.
According to Fortune, publicly traded miners have taken measures to increase their resilience, diversify their offerings, and optimize their operations. However, mining stocks have faced challenges, with some experiencing significant declines.
While larger miners may undergo a period of adjustment, smaller miners and pools may be pushed offline. This could result in a wider market share for the surviving miners.
Experts at private asset management firm Bernstein expect the mining industry to consolidate, with “smaller and less efficient players” potentially selling assets to raise capital and shore up their balance sheets.
The increased market dominance of the surviving miners is expected to be profitable over the long term, especially with the continued structural demand for Bitcoin from ETFs.
Timing The Bitcoin Bull Market Peak
Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital has provided insights into the potential timing of Bitcoin’s bull market peak based on historical Halving cycles and the current acceleration seen in the market.
According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has traditionally reached its peak in the bull market approximately 518-546 days after the Halving event.
However, the current cycle has shown signs of unprecedented acceleration, with Bitcoin surpassing previous all-time highs roughly 260 days ahead of historical norms. Nonetheless, the recent “pre-Halving retrace” has slowed down the cycle by around 30 days and counting.
Taking into account this accelerated perspective, if Bitcoin’s bull market peak is measured from the moment it breaks its old all-time high, it may occur 266-315 days later. As Bitcoin achieved new all-time highs in March, this suggests a potential bull market peak in December 2024 or February 2025, according to Rekt’s analysis.
Both perspectives carry significance throughout the cycle, especially if the acceleration trend persists. However, prolonged retracements or consolidation periods can slow down the cycle, potentially pushing the anticipated bull market peak further into the future.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $64,300, up from the $59,000 mark reached in the early hours of Friday.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
This Bitcoin Halving Is Different. But Is It ‘Priced In’?
Institutions launching Bitcoin ETFs this year have buoyed the bitcoin price to record levels. Does that mean the impact of the halving — the four-year slashing of the bitcoin reward — will be relatively muted this time, as any pontential bump is “priced in”?
All Quiet On The Bitcoin ETF Front – Should You Be Paranoid?
The recent approval and launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs have brought about notable changes in market dynamics. Among the most significant players affected is Grayscale, a leading institution in the crypto space.
Grayscale’s Bitcoin Holdings Experience Decline
Grayscale, known for its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), held the highest BTC market capitalization among institutions. However, an in-depth analysis reveals a decline in its Bitcoin holdings over recent months.
From nearly 620,000 BTC in January, Grayscale’s holdings have dwindled to a little over 300,000 BTC at the time of reporting. This decline raises questions about the factors influencing institutional investment strategies in the crypto sector.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Witness Fluctuating Flows
Following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the market has witnessed fluctuating flows across various platforms. While certain ETFs have experienced significant volume, others have recorded zero flows, indicating a mixed response from investors. BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscale’s GBTC have been among the few to register notable flows, with both inflows and outflows observed in recent days.
A closer look at the data reveals consecutive outflows in Bitcoin spot ETFs over the past few days, reminiscent of similar trends observed in March. On the 15th and 16th of April, outflows amounted to nearly $27 million and $58 million, respectively.
Despite these outflows, analysts point out that such fluctuations are not uncommon in the ETF market and may not necessarily indicate product failure.
Analysis Of Flow Patterns Provides Insight
Examining specific flow patterns offers valuable insights into investor behavior and market sentiment. While Grayscale’s GBTC experienced consecutive outflows, BlackRock’s IBIT saw inflows on certain days. This variance underscores the diverse strategies adopted by investors in response to the evolving crypto landscape.
It’s important to note that zero inflows on certain days are considered normal for ETFs, according to analysts. They emphasized that such occurrences are commonplace across various ETFs and should not be interpreted as a sign of product failure. Instead, they reflect the ebb and flow of investor interest in a rapidly evolving market.
Future Outlook For Bitcoin ETFs
As Bitcoin ETFs continue to gain traction, the market is poised for further evolution. While some platforms may experience fluctuations in flows, the overall trajectory of institutional investment in the crypto sector remains optimistic.
The approval and launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs have sparked shifts in market dynamics, impacting institutions like Grayscale and prompting fluctuations in ETF flows. Despite the volatility, analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin ETFs and their role in shaping the future of finance.
Featured image from DataDrivenInvestor, chart from TradingView
Pre-Halving Jitters: Bitcoin Price Briefly Slips Below $60,000
The Bitcoin price has recently experienced heightened volatility, causing the largest cryptocurrency in the market to briefly drop below the significant threshold of $60,000 for the first time since March 5.
This price decrease comes just days before the highly anticipated Halving event scheduled for Friday. This event has traditionally been viewed as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin’s value due to its impact on token supply.
However, market participants are questioning whether the Halving’s effects are already factored into the current market conditions, leading to extended bearish sentiment.
Long-Term Bullish Outlook Prevails
Bitcoin’s decline saw it plummet by 5% to $59,890, though it recovered some losses shortly afterward. Since reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 on March 14, the Bitcoin price has now retraced by approximately 18%.
The downward trend extended to other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE), which also experienced slumps on Wednesday.
The impending Halving, a quadrennial code update in Bitcoin, has raised concerns among investors as to whether it will be a significant market-moving event or a non-event overshadowed by other factors, such as the ongoing discussions surrounding the Bitcoin ETF market, which has seen a significant decrease in terms of outflows.
Nathanaël Cohen, co-founder of INDIGO Fund, noted that market participants are de-risking due to this uncertainty and the additional macro factor of tensions in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran, putting further pressure on risk assets.
The recent decline in Bitcoin’s price was further exacerbated by a wave of liquidations in long positions for digital assets. Last Friday alone, approximately $780 million worth of bullish crypto wagers were liquidated within 24 hours.
Despite the recent market turbulence, some participants maintain a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Some see the recent liquidations and subsequent flushing out of leverage in the crypto market as a positive development.
Ravi Doshi, head of markets at FalconX, reported increased buying of longer-dated call options on their derivatives desk, suggesting that clients anticipate higher prices in the latter half of the year.
Bitcoin Price Rebounds Above $61,000
Following the brief dip below the $60,000 mark, the Bitcoin price has rebounded, currently trading at $61,600. This recovery is viewed as a bullish sign, with the cryptocurrency’s macro uptrend structure remaining intact as long as price levels of $51,000 and $42,000 are maintained.
The market is closely watching whether the theory suggesting that the Halving price catalyst is already factored into the current market conditions holds. Additionally, the performance of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States and their potential impact on driving the cryptocurrency’s price back to previous highs are of significant interest.
Furthermore, the recent approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF market in Hong Kong is expected to contribute to increased adoption of the leading cryptocurrency. Although some experts do not consider it as significant as the US ETF market, it is anticipated to generate a surge in price and further strengthen Bitcoin’s position.
Ultimately, the outcome of the Halving event, combined with the developments in both the US and Hong Kong ETF markets, remains uncertain. The ability of Bitcoin to regain its bullish momentum and drive increased demand will be closely monitored.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
DeFi And Web3 Gaming Dominate Q1: Record Transactions Leave Stablecoins In The Dust, Report
In a recent report published by QuickNode, the first quarter of 2024 showed the dominance of decentralized finance (DeFi) and the notable growth of Web3 gaming in the crypto industry, which outperformed the stablecoin sector in key metrics, indicating investor preference and market sentiment during this period.
Hopes For Second ‘DeFi Summer’
Per the report, DeFi experienced a significant resurgence in Q1’24, fueled by a surge in developer and user activity, particularly on chains like Solana (SOL) and Base.
This resurgence has sparked growing hopes of a second ‘DeFi Summer,’ as DeFi projects embrace new concepts such as staking, liquid staking, restaking, and liquid restaking, which have been catalysts for its growth. Notably, staking now represents a substantial portion of DeFi’s Total Value Locked (TVL).
While stablecoins remain the top spot for address activity, DeFi surpassed stablecoins in an essential metric: transaction counts.
DeFi emerged as the leader in transactions for Q1’24, averaging nearly 7 million daily transactions. Furthermore, DeFi led in fees spent, gas usage, and the overall number of projects despite comprising only approximately 4% of the total crypto market cap.
The TVL for yield-generating protocols within DeFi witnessed steady growth, climbing from $26.5 billion in Q3’23 to $59.7 billion in Q1’24. According to QuickNode, this rally signifies a return of confidence and liquidity to the DeFi markets as investors seek opportunities for yield generation.
Players Take Control With Web3 Gaming
In parallel, Web3-based gaming has emerged as a significant departure from conventional gaming platforms. By leveraging cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), Web3 gaming offers players new and decentralized gaming.
Players now have the opportunity to actively participate in games and earn rewards, shifting control away from centralized entities within the gaming ecosystem.
The report highlights the growth of Web3 gaming, surpassing stablecoins in transaction volume and achieving the highest year-over-year (YoY) active address growth across all categories, with a 155% increase in active addresses during Q1 ’24.
This surge in player engagement and participation is evident through the exponential growth of transactions within Web3 gaming, which experienced a staggering 370% YoY increase.
The Appeal Of Stablecoins
Although stablecoins continue to lead in daily active users, representing over 41% of all Web3 user activity, other categories have shown higher quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) activity growth, indicating potential catch-up.
Tether’s USDT remains the dominant stablecoin, controlling approximately 75% of the market cap. Notably, Circle’s USDC has taken the lead in volume and average transaction size, partly due to Coinbase’s efforts to integrate USDC on its platform and promote its use on its Layer 2 network, Base.
In addition, the report notes that stablecoins have proven attractive to both new and experienced users, offering stability and value predictability, especially during periods of market uncertainty.
QuickNode attributes the surge in stablecoin user activity in Q1’24 to several factors, including the approval and listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, the anticipation of Bitcoin’s next Halving event, the devaluation of fiat currencies, the popularity of low-volatility assets, and the strength of the USD, to which over 90% of stablecoin transactions are anchored.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
The $86,500 Bitcoin Question: Will The Halving Spark A Price Surge This April?
The cryptocurrency market has undergone a substantial downturn, with many of the top 100 cryptocurrencies experiencing sharp price drops. Bitcoin, the leading digital asset, hit a low of $61,600 on Tuesday.
However, industry experts suggest a potential rebound to higher highs may be on the horizon as the highly anticipated Halving event draws near.
Adrian Zduńczyk, a crypto trader and technical analyst, provides valuable insights into the market dynamics, highlighting key factors such as bull market indicators, ETFs, and the imminent Halving event.
Mixed Signals For BTC
According to Zduńczyk’s analysis, the market exhibits bullish signs, with the 200-week and 50-week moving averages (MAs) at $33,700 and $39,900, respectively.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio is 0.55, indicating a favorable trading environment. Additionally, the 7-week correlation with the S&P 500 (SPX) remains firm at 0.71.
In terms of daily trends, Zduńczyk notes that Bitcoin is currently in a choppy range between $59,000 and $74,000, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rising at $46,600 and the 200-day Bitcoin Production Cost (BPRO) rising at $57,700.
However, the analyst notes that the medium-term momentum is declining, and the 50-day Average True Range (ATR) volatility has increased to $3270. This suggests that Bitcoin’s overall price trend is losing strength or momentum in the medium-term timeframe.
Bitcoin Aims For $86,500
Zduńczyk highlights the market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is at 65, indicating a state of greed among market participants. The analyst notes that the current phase of the market cycle is characterized by belief.
Moreover, miners are still profitable at prices above $41,800, and as mining difficulty rises post-Halving, a price spike is expected.
Notably, previous Halving events have triggered substantial price rallies, with Bitcoin experiencing significant gains of 90X, 30X, and 7X. Importantly, Bitcoin has never returned to Halving prices after these rallies.
Examining seasonality trends, the monthly opening price for April stands at $71,000, suggesting a positive outlook for the month. The average gain for April is estimated at 21.95%, implying an end-of-month target of $86,500, according to Zduńczyk.
Moreover, the period from April 16 to 30 has historically seen average gains of 14.69%, further reinforcing positive expectations and further price gains for BTC during the upcoming weeks. According to Zduńczyk, this timeframe could attract investors seeking to buy the dip.
Despite the overall positive outlook, BTC is trading at $62,600, reflecting a consistent decline over the past month. In the last 30 days, BTC has experienced a 9% drop from its mid-March all-time high of $73,700.
Moreover, in its quest for new highs and surpassing the $80,000 threshold, BTC has encountered a significant obstacle at the $70,000 level. Despite surpassing its all-time high, BTC has struggled to consolidate above this level for over a week.
Nonetheless, as emphasized by Zduńczyk, the potential synergy between the success of the ETF market in the United States and the upcoming Halving event may hold the key to revitalizing BTC’s price trajectory.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Is the Bitcoin Rally Over? Reasons to Stay Bullish on BTC Despite Correction
Bitcoin has pulled back more than 15% since hitting an all-time high one month ago, with some major altcoins nosediving 40%-50%, but “few understand how normal corrections like these are in bull markets,” one observer noted.
