TA: Bitcoin Reclaims $30K, Why Bulls Face Uphill Task

Bitcoin started a fresh increase from the $28,500 support zone against the US Dollar. BTC must clear $30,600 to move further into a positive zone.

  • Bitcoin formed a base above $28,500 and started a fresh increase.
  • The price is now trading above the $30,000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $30,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could gain bullish momentum if there is a clear move above $30,600.

Bitcoin Price Is Facing Resistance

Bitcoin price found support near the $28,500 zone after a steady decline. A base was formed near $28,600 and started a fresh increase.

There was a clear move above the $29,500 resistance zone and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The bulls even pushed the price above the $30,000 resistance zone. However, they are now facing an uphill task near the $30,600 zone.

There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $30,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A high is formed near $30,721 and the price is now consolidating gains.

The price is trading above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $28,590 swing low to $30,721 high. An immediate resistance is near the $30,400 level. The next major resistance is near the $30,600 level.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

A clear move above the $30,400 and $30,600 resistance levels might start a fresh increase in the near term. The next key resistance could be near the $31,500 level, above which the price might gain bullish momentum.

Fresh Decline in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to gain pace above the $30,600 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. An immediate support on the downside is near the $30,000 level. The first major support is near the $29,800 level and the 100 hourly SMA.

The next major support sits near the $29,655 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $28,590 swing low to $30,721 high. A downside break and close below the $29,650 support might start another decline. In the stated case, the price could drop towards the $28,500 level.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now slowly losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $29,800, followed by $29,650.

Major Resistance Levels – $30,600, $31,200 and $31,500.

More Stress For El Salvador As Bitcoin Dips To $29,000

El Salvador has been on the radar of leading financial and economic institutions since it made Bitcoin a legal tender. It has mainly become a spectacle as cryptocurrency supporters and non-supporters alike watch on to see how this plays out. El Salvador which had made good on its bitcoin promise had made multiple BTC purchases at close to the height of the market last year and some this year.

The country now holds at least 2,300 BTC since it made its first purchase in September of 2021. Now that the price of Bitcoin is down significantly since the country had begun buying, how is this playing out for the North American country?

El Salvador And Its Bitcoin

El Salvador had bought another 500 BTC in May after the market had declined to $1.68 trillion. These bitcoins which were purchased at an average price of $30,774 had brought the country’s holdings to 2,301 BTC so far. It would be the lowest price that the country had been able to purchase the digital asset and given that this purchase was only a small part of its larger holdings, the country still remains in loss from its multiple purchases.

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The first time El Salvador had bought some BTC in September, it had been trading above $44,000. What this means is that the digital asset is down about 45% since then. Its entire stash is now worth about $70 million at present prices. So even with the dollar cost averaging method that has seen the country buy BTC at different prices, it is still down 28% from its total purchase value.

BTC falls to $28,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The move to accept BTC has not only proved controversial on just the bitcoin price side, but it has also affected the country’s ability to receive international aid in the form of loans.

Last year, it was made public that the country had been looking to secure $1.3 billion from the IMF. However, this does not seem likely to happen given that the IMF has expressed its disdain for the adoption of bitcoin as a legal tender. 

It has advised the country to remove the digital asset as an official national currency, citing that this could cause problems for the economy in the long-term, revealing that the current account deficit for El Salvador’s remittance and the external financing-reliant economy is estimated to drift around $2 billion for the next three years. But President Nayib Bukele has turned a deaf ear to this.

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El Salvador is a country that is heavily reliant on remittances from citizens abroad who send money home to loved ones. For this reason, the president has said that BTC will greatly help make these remittances easier and cheaper for its residents.

On the price side, the president is not much bothered by the recent decline either. He has said in the past that he expects the price of the digital asset to reach $100,000 sometime in 2022. If this happens, then the country will be in significant profit from its BTC holdings.

Featured image from Coingape, chart from TradingView.com

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