Bitcoin Realized Dominance Signals Weak Hands Capitulating, Strong Hands Rising

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within striking distance of its all-time high (ATH), a noticeable shift is underway in the cryptocurrency’s Realized Dominance metric, reflecting changes in behavior between short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH).

Bitcoin Realized Dominance Shows Shift In Market Sentiment

According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, the latest trend in BTC’s Realized Dominance metric highlights a significant shift in overall market structure and sentiment.

For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin Realized Dominance metric tracks how much of the realized cap is held by STH vs LTH. A rising LTH cohort share signals strong conviction and maturing supply, while a falling STH share suggests reduced speculation or loss-taking.

The latest on-chain data shows that STH Realized Cap has dropped to around 45%, signalling reduced activity from recent buyers. This implies that new BTC entering the market is either being sold at a loss or maturing into long-term holdings – easing short-term speculative pressure.

sth

Conversely, the LTH Realized Cap has risen, suggesting long-held coins are being moved at a profit – typically seen during late-stage bull markets. This increase also indicates aging supply, as coins held by short-term investors transition into the LTH category, reflecting strong holder conviction. The analyst added:

The divergence between falling STH Realized Cap and rising LTH Realized Cap highlights a supply transfer dynamic: recent entrants struggle with profitability amid lackluster price action, while long-term participants maintain control of an increasing share of network value.

Such transitions often precede bullish reversals. As short-term realized cap shrinks, selling pressure typically declines, paving the way for more sustainable upside, provided fresh demand returns.

In conclusion, Crazzyblockk noted that the Bitcoin market is currently in a consolidation phase, with weaker hands exiting and stronger holders gaining dominance. If this trend continues, it could establish a more resilient price base for BTC and potentially pave the way for a new ATH.

BTC Apparent Demand Has Declined

Despite the rise in LTH Realized Dominance, some on-chain signals point to weakening demand. This has raised concerns of a potential short-term drawdown, which could be as severe as the April 2025 pullback to almost $75,000.

Notably, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand – a metric that assesses whether new buyer demand is sufficient to offset selling from miners and LTHs – has dropped to -37,000 BTC. This sharp decline suggests fading buying interest.

ali

That said, one positive indicator remains. The STH floor price has been steadily rising over the past few months and is now nearing the psychologically important $100,000 level. At press time, BTC trades at $107,796, up 1.2% in the past 24 hours.

bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Surges Toward $110K — Will It Finally Stick the Landing?

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase from the $105,200 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might struggle to continue higher above the $110,000 resistance.

  • Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $108,000 zone.
  • The price is trading above $107,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
  • There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $106,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could start a fresh increase if it stays above the $107,000 zone.

Bitcoin Price Regains Traction

Bitcoin price remained supported above the $105,000 level and started a fresh increase. BTC cleared many hurdles near $106,200 to start a decent increase.

There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $106,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair pumped above the $107,500 resistance level. It cleared the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $108,792 swing high to the $105,116 low.

Finally, the price surged toward the $110,000 level. It tested the 1.236 Fib extension level of the downward move from the $108,792 swing high to the $105,116 low.

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin is now trading above $108,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $109,400 level. The first key resistance is near the $110,000 level. A close above the $110,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $112,000 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $113,200 level.

Downside Correction In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $110,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $108,750 level. The first major support is near the $108,000 level.

The next support is now near the $107,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $106,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $105,000, below which BTC might continue to move down.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $108,000, followed by $107,200.

Major Resistance Levels – $110,000 and $112,000.

Analyst Says Cycle Is Not Finished Amid 2 Years Of Bitcoin Sideways Movement

Bitcoin (BTC) is now 195 days into its latest sideways movement, which is part of a broader two-year stretch marked by sluggish price action and short-lived rallies. According to a crypto analyst, just 36 days of meaningful gains have defined this cycle, while the rest have been a relentless grind. Still, despite the clear market fatigue and repeated new lows, the analyst insists that the cycle isn’t over yet. 

Bitcoin Cycle Sees Only 36 Days Of Real Gains

The current Bitcoin market cycle is being closely examined, as a new analysis by expert analyst Crypto Con delves deep into the cryptocurrency’s past movements, revealing two full years of sideways price action with only brief periods of upward momentum. The analyst’s chart, titled “Cycle 4 Ranges and Expansions,” highlights a pattern of prolonged range-bound activity interrupted by short bursts of expansion.

As of now, Crypto Con notes that Bitcoin has been consolidating for 195 consecutive days since December 18, 2024, without setting a new local high. The chart analysis shows that the total time spent in actual upward expansion in the entire cycle is just 5.76 months. Even more interesting is the fact that when isolating the days in which Bitcoin recorded new local highs, the number shrinks to just 36 days. 

Bitcoin

According to the market expert, these expansion bursts are responsible for all of Bitcoin’s significant price increases during its current cycle. Every expansion phase has also occurred within extremely narrow windows—typically just two to five days long. The rest of the cycle after this has been characterized by a consistent sluggish grind and long stretches of price consolidation, where momentum fades and the market struggles to advance. 

Flattened Price Action Hides Cycles’ Underlying Strength

A closer look at the bottom section of Crypto Con’s chart, which removes the expansion bursts, shows how Bitcoin’s price has essentially remained flat or trended lower throughout the cycle. Major sideways phases in 2023 and 2024 lasted 192 days and 238 days, respectively, offering minimum sustained upside. The current 2025 range has now extended close to 200 days, continuing the trend of market inactivity. 

Despite the drawn-out stagnation, Crypto Con maintains that this cycle is not over yet. He implies that Bitcoin’s prolonged accumulation and consolidation could be building pressure for a significant breakout. The chart also shows Bitcoin’s next potential upside target between $165,000 and $180,000. Currently the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $106,990, meaning a jump anywhere between these targets would represent price  increase of over 54%. 

If previous patterns hold, BTC’s next major move may arrive swiftly, as past expansions have delivered their impact in just a few trading sessions. Until that moment arrives, Bitcoin remains locked in what is shaping up to be the slowest and possibly the most patient-testing cycle to date.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Consolidates Below Resistance — Can It Seal A Weekly Close Over $107,720?

Bitcoin is at a pivotal point, and the weekly close could define its next move. To confirm bullish continuation and strengthen market confidence, BTC needs to secure a solid weekly close above $107,720.

Bitcoin Weekly Candle Could Set The Stage For A Run

Bitcoin is approaching a make-or-break moment, but if BTC can secure a strong weekly close above $107,720, it could trigger a move toward the $130,000 to $135,000 range in Q3. This key level is acting as a resistance zone, and breaking it could unlock a new wave of bullish momentum.

SatheMeme_Expert revealed on X that a similar setup had appeared in Q4 2024, when BTC posted its biggest weekly close of the year. The result was an unstoppable rally that shattered resistance and fueled one of the strongest bullish legs of the cycle.

Bitcoin

The weekly chart shows Bitcoin is trading within a well-defined historical parallel channel. As mentioned by Pinnacle_Crypto, this channel has previously marked a breakout point in October 2023 and October 2024, which fueled upward moves. If this pattern continues, BTC could be on track to reach the $150,916 target in October 2025. The channel provides a roadmap, with key breakouts that signal the start of rallies. Alongside, price dips will serve as accumulation zones.

Crypto analyst Gemxbt also highlighted that Bitcoin’s 1-hour chart is currently in a downward trend, but the price is attempting to bounce off a support zone near $106.500. So far, this area is holding firm, providing a foundation for buyers to step in, and technical indicators support this potential shift.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recovering from oversold levels, hinting that selling momentum is waning, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is nearing a bullish crossover, which could signal the start of upward momentum. However, for a meaningful reversal to hold, BTC must overcome the critical resistance near $108,500. A breakout above with sustained volume will be crucial to confirm the trend and bullish momentum.

Consolidation Phase Matures — Breakout May Be Imminent

BTC is consolidating inside a descending channel formation on the daily chart, a pattern that typically reflects a phase with a broader trend. Dynamite Trader emphasized that BTC is currently trading above the 50-day moving average (MA 50), a technical level that is now solid for the bulls.

A breakout above the descending channel would mark a shift in sentiment and momentum, potentially triggering a bullish continuation toward the $120,000 region, the next psychosocial target on the macro chart.

According to MiraCrypto, Bitcoin has shown a strong breakout from the descending channel on the 1-day chart, signaling a shift in momentum. BTC is now consolidating above the resistance, which has turned into support.

This consolidation above the breakout levels is a bullish continuation signal seen before the next leg higher. MiraCrypto noted that as long as BTC holds this zone, the path remains open for a move toward $135,000.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Finds Support Above 50-Day SMA, But Next Direction Remains Uncertain

Bitcoin is holding steady above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), showing signs of underlying strength despite a lack of clear directional momentum. With rising trading volume and mixed technical indicators, the next move could swing either way, keeping the market on edge.

RSI Holds Neutral As Bitcoin Awaits A Clearer Signal

According to Shaco AI, in a recent update on X, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $107,264.17, positioning itself just above two key moving averages. It’s nudging the 25-day SMA at $107,229.82 and holding slightly above the 50-day SMA, which sits at $107,040.81. This positioning reflects a mild bullish bias in recent sessions, keeping both bulls and bears on alert.

Looking at momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is resting at 53.36—firmly in neutral territory. This suggests that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold at the moment, offering no strong directional clues as it keeps the market guessing.

Furthermore, the Average Directional Index (ADX) adds to this indecisive mood, coming in at a soft 20.44. This low reading signals a weak trend, meaning there’s not enough force from bulls or bears to drive a clear breakout just yet. In other words, the market isn’t leaning heavily in either direction.

Bitcoin

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory at -137.33. Although it isn’t signaling any strong downward momentum, traders may want to stay cautious and alert for any sudden shift in the current tone.

Despite the technical indecision, market activity is picking up. Bitcoin’s recent trading volume has surged to 1903.51, well above the average of 1522.43. This uptick signals a rise in interest and participation, indicating that traders are actively positioning themselves in anticipation of Bitcoin’s next move.

Critical Zones At Play As Market Prepares For A Directional Push

Looking at key levels, Shaco AI highlighted that resistance is at $108,789.99, which seems to be a strong level to overcome. The level marks a significant ceiling for Bitcoin, and any attempt to push higher will need solid momentum to break through. On the other hand, support lies at $104,622.02. This support level will be critical in case the price begins to retreat, as a breakdown here could open the door for further downside.

Based on current indicators, the analyst suggests it’s wise to keep an eye out for potential movement in either direction. With volume picking up, Bitcoin may soon test either the resistance above or fall back to support, depending on how momentum develops in the coming sessions.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Bounces Off Key Demand Level – Price Discovery On The Menu?

Bitcoin has experienced heightened volatility over the past few days, moving between critical levels as market participants await a clear breakout or breakdown. After testing $105,000 as support, BTC rebounded strongly and pushed back toward the $109,000 resistance zone—an area that has capped upward momentum for several weeks. While bulls remain in control of the broader structure, price action continues to show hesitation just below the all-time high, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty.

To confirm the next leg of the long-term trend, Bitcoin needs to break into price discovery territory above $112,000 with strong volume and follow-through. Until that happens, the current range-bound conditions could persist, especially as traders weigh macro factors and profit-taking activity increases.

Top analyst Jelle shared a technical analysis pointing to another strong bounce from the 50-day moving average and exponential moving average (MA/EMA) cluster, key dynamic support levels that have repeatedly triggered bullish reactions. This bounce reinforces the underlying strength in the current trend, suggesting that buyers continue to step in at crucial levels. As long as BTC holds above this support zone, the path toward a breakout remains intact—but confirmation is still needed.

Bitcoin Prepares For Expansion Phase

Bitcoin appears poised to enter a new expansive phase, with a breakout above its all-time high potentially triggering a fresh wave of bullish momentum, not just for BTC, but for the broader crypto market. After weeks of grinding just below the $112,000 resistance level, Bitcoin has struggled to push decisively higher. However, the structure remains bullish, and buyers have consistently defended key demand zones around $105,000. This ability to maintain higher lows during a period of consolidation signals strong market control by the bulls.

According to Jelle, Bitcoin has just seen another powerful bounce from the 50-day moving average and exponential moving average (MA/EMA) cluster—an area that has historically acted as a dynamic support zone. Each time BTC has touched this cluster in recent months, it has rebounded with renewed strength, and the latest bounce is no exception. Jelle believes this reaction confirms the uptrend remains intact, with conditions aligning for a breakout.

Bitcoin bounces from the 50-day MA/EMA cluster | Source: Jelle on X

“The trend is up—new all-time highs are very much on the menu this week,” Jelle noted, emphasizing the importance of sustained momentum above current resistance. If Bitcoin can close decisively above $112K, it would likely ignite a surge in altcoins, many of which have lagged during BTC’s dominance-driven phase. With bulls maintaining control and technical support holding firm, the market is now watching for confirmation that Bitcoin is ready to enter price discovery once again. A successful breakout could mark the beginning of the next major leg in the crypto cycle.

BTC Tests Resistance Again After Volatile Bounce

Bitcoin is once again pushing toward the critical $109,300 resistance level after bouncing strongly from the $105,000 support zone. The 12-hour chart shows a series of failed breakouts above the $109K level in recent weeks, highlighting the strength of this resistance zone. However, bulls have continued to defend higher lows, maintaining overall market structure and preventing deeper corrections.

BTC showing strength above key MA | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

The latest candle shows a 1.93% surge, reclaiming the 50- and 100-period moving averages around $106,000, a key short-term cluster that previously acted as support. Volume also picked up during this bounce, suggesting renewed buying interest as Bitcoin tries to establish bullish momentum.

Still, the rejection just below $109,300 remains a concern. If BTC fails to break and close above this range soon, the risk of a return to the $103,600 demand zone increases, especially in the face of rising volatility and profit-taking across the network.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Public Firms Snag 131,000 BTC, Surpassing ETFs In Bitcoin Purchases

According to CNBC, corporate treasuries around the globe have surpassed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Bitcoin (BTC) acquisitions for three consecutive quarters. 

This indicates a growing interest among public companies to adopt strategies similar to those pioneered by Strategy, especially in a more favorable regulatory environment under President Donald Trump’s administration.

Bitcoin Holdings Surge

Data from Bitcoin Treasuries shows that public companies acquired approximately 131,000 Bitcoin in the second quarter of the year, marking an 18% increase in their BTC holdings. In contrast, exchange-traded funds managed to secure about 111,000 Bitcoin, representing an 8% growth during the same period. 

Nick Marie, head of research at Ecoinometrics, emphasized that the motivations behind these purchases differ significantly. While institutional buyers utilizing ETFs seek exposure to BTC for a variety of reasons, Marie asserted that public companies are primarily focused on accumulating Bitcoin to enhance shareholder value.

The market dynamics have also shown that public company BTC holdings increased by 4% in April, a month marked by significant volatility following President Trump’s announcement of initial tariffs. During the same time frame, ETF holdings rose by only 2%. 

Marie noted that public companies are less concerned with Bitcoin’s current market price, prioritizing the growth of their Bitcoin reserves to appear more attractive to potential investors.

ETFs Still Dominate In This Key Metric

Despite the increasing activity from public companies, Bitcoin ETFs remain the largest holders of the cryptocurrency, collectively holding over 1.4 million BTC, or about 6.8% of the total capped supply of 21 million coins. Public companies, on the other hand, hold around 855,000 Bitcoin, approximately 4% of the total supply.

The recent surge in corporate BTC accumulation is also a reflection of significant regulatory changes favoring the crypto industry. The last time ETFs outperformed public companies in Bitcoin purchases was during the third quarter of 2024, prior to Trump’s re-election.

Several notable companies have entered the Bitcoin market recently. GameStop began acquiring Bitcoin after its board approved it as a treasury reserve asset earlier this year. 

Similarly, health-care firm KindlyMD merged with Nakamoto, a Bitcoin investment company, while investor Anthony Pompliano’s ProCap launched its own BTC purchasing initiative and plans to go public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC).

Direct Exposure May Ease

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, continues to lead the charge in the Bitcoin treasury space with approximately 597,000 Bitcoin in its possession. Following closely is Bitcoin miner Mara Holdings, which holds nearly 50,000 coins. 

Ben Werkman, chief investment officer at Swan BTC, remarked on the challenges smaller firms face in trying to match Strategy’s scale. He predicted that institutional capital will continue to gravitate toward Strategy due to its deep liquidity and established presence.

Looking ahead, Marie suggested that the number of companies adhering to a BTC treasury strategy may dwindle over the next decade as the market matures. 

He noted that as more firms enter the space, the individual impact of each company will likely diminish. Additionally, as Bitcoin becomes more normalized, investor constraints regarding direct exposure may fade.

Bitcoin

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Near Pain Point Last Seen In October 2024

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, long‑term Bitcoin holders are sitting on unrealized gains last seen during the October 2024 market dip. Right now, those holders show an average profit of 220% on coins they bought and held for the long run. That figure is surprisingly low given Bitcoin’s recent surge back above $107,000.

Lower Profit Levels Than Previous Peaks

Darkfost used the MVRV ratio — market value relative to the average cost paid by long‑term holders — to track these shifts. In March 2024, when Bitcoin pushed up to $74,500, MVRV hit 300%. Then in December 2024, at the $108,000 peak, it climbed to 350%. By contrast, today’s 220% gain reflects the fact that many long‑term holders bought in at much higher levels than earlier in the cycle.

Price Needs To Rise To Match Past Gains

Based on an average cost basis of $33,800, Bitcoin would need to climb back to $135,200 just to restore that 300% profit level. If the market aimed to hit the 357% mark again, prices would have to reach roughly $154,400. Both figures track with what history tells us about investor behavior — people tend to sell when profits hit big round numbers.

 

Historical Cycle Comparisons

Looking farther back shows how much room remains. In December 2017, at the $19,500 top, long‑term holders saw unrealized profits of 4,000%. Then during the 2020/2021 cycle, Bitcoin spiked to $63,000 in April 2021 and MVRV topped out at 1,230%. By November 2021, prices hit about $68,400 but unrealized gains for long‑term holders had already fallen to 340%.

An analyst’s recent outlook lines up with this math, first pegging a cycle top at $135,000 in October 2024. After reviewing new data in May 2025, they revised the target range to $120,000–$150,000 and suggested a likely peak between August and September 2025. That range overlaps with the price levels needed to bring MVRV back to earlier highs.

Room For More Upside, But Watch The Risks

Based on latest figures, Bitcoin is trading at $106,750, roughly flat over the last 24 hours. Lower profit margins mean fewer long‑term holders are itching to sell right now, which could leave more fuel for higher prices. Still, on‑chain numbers don’t capture the whole picture. Spot-market flows, ETF moves and wider economic shifts can all trigger sharp reversals.

For now, the evidence points to a market that isn’t overheated. If Bitcoin follows past cycles, it may have farther to climb before long‑term holders lock in gains at levels seen in March or December 2024. But investors should balance these on‑chain metrics with real‑world signals — and be ready for whatever comes next.

Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView

Michael Saylor’s Strategy Set To Yield $14 Billion Profit In Q2, Bloomberg

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is on track to report an impressive $14 billion in unrealized gains from its extensive Bitcoin accumulation strategy. 

Co-founded by Michael Saylor, the company has successfully transformed itself from a struggling enterprise software provider into a leading leveraged Bitcoin proxy, drawing comparisons to major corporate powerhouses such as Amazon and JPMorgan Chase.

Strategy Set To Post Record Profits

According to a recent Bloomberg report, Strategy’s anticipated profits stem largely from the rebound in Bitcoin prices and recent changes in accounting practices that allow the firm to value its substantial cryptocurrency holdings at market rates. 

Analysts project that while Strategy’s software business may only generate approximately $112.8 million in revenue for the second quarter, the surge in Bitcoin prices has significantly bolstered its financial outlook.

This potential record profit comes after a turbulent period for the company, which faced criticism from notable investors like Jim Chanos. Chanos has publicly derided Saylor’s valuation model, describing it as “financial gibberish,” while Saylor has countered that Chanos fails to grasp the intricacies of his approach. 

Despite the skepticism, Mark Palmer, an analyst at Benchmark Capital, noted Saylor’s resilience, stating that he has consistently outperformed not only his critics but also the broader market.

Since Saylor initiated his Bitcoin buying spree, Strategy’s stock has skyrocketed over 3,300%. In the same time frame, Bitcoin has appreciated approximately 1,000%, while the S&P 500 has advanced around 115%. The company’s shares saw a 40% increase in the second quarter, significantly outpacing the S&P’s 11% rise.

$64 Billion Bitcoin Value

The recent accounting change at Strategy, which took effect in the first quarter, allows the firm to recognize the market value of its Bitcoin holdings—currently valued at about $64 billion—resulting in substantial swings in reported earnings. 

Previously, the company treated its Bitcoin similar to intangible assets, which limited their ability to recognize gains unless the assets were sold. This change has positioned Strategy to capture the full benefit of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations.

At the start of the second quarter, Strategy held 528,185 BTC, valued at over $43.5 billion based on market prices. An increase in the value of Bitcoin of 30% during the quarter alone contributed more than $13 billion to the company’s unrealized gains. Cumulatively, weekly purchases have brought the company closer to holding 600,000 BTC.

Despite the positive outlook, the company has faced legal challenges, including several class-action lawsuits claiming that executives misled shareholders regarding the first-quarter losses. In response, Strategy has pledged to vigorously defend against these accusations.

Strategy

As of press time, BTC trades at $106,100, down 5% from its current record high of $111,800 during May’s rally.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin Seasonality: Why Summer 2025 Will Catch Everyone Off Guard

A growing number of Bitcoin and crypto market participants have fallen victim to a dangerous assumption: that summer in the crypto markets is synonymous with stagnation. However, crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi warns that this summer may follow a drastically different script. In a video analysis released on July 1, Chifoi lays out a compelling case that 2025 fits a historical pattern that has previously delivered some of Bitcoin’s strongest summer performances.

Summer 2025 Could Flip Bitcoin’s Script

Chifoi’s thesis is based on a concept he has long explored: Bitcoin seasonality—a recurring, cyclical behavior in Bitcoin’s price action across the calendar year, especially in relation to the four-year halving cycles. According to Chifoi, there is an identifiable seasonal window from mid-January to mid-March where Bitcoin historically shows explosive movement in one direction, only to reverse course in the subsequent months.

This pattern has held across multiple years and cycles. In 2021, for example, Bitcoin rallied from $28,000 to $60,000 between January and March before collapsing back to $28,000 by summer. The opposite occurred in 2023, when Bitcoin dumped in Q1 and reversed upwards during summer.

“From January 22nd to March 11th [2024], we had a 2x on Bitcoin,” Chifoi noted. “And if the price moves in one direction in this window, it tends to do the exact opposite after that. That’s the seasonality reversal.” Chifoi highlighted this tendency across previous cycles as well, identifying the same trend flip in 2022, 2023, and most notably in 2021.

Critically, Chifoi warns that while most traders are anchored to the recent past—recalling three consecutive “boring” summers—this year is historically aligned with a different kind of setup. “Nobody is prepared for this summer,” he said. “Because people only look at the past three years. But those were not the years to look at.”

Instead, Chifoi compares 2025 to three historical analogues: 2013, 2017, and 2021—all years that followed a halving and saw significant summer rallies. In each of those years, after early-year volatility or corrections, Bitcoin posted dramatic gains from mid-July into early September. In 2017, Bitcoin rallied 160% in that timeframe. In 2021, the move was 77%.

“The common factor in those years? They were one year after a halving, with a post-March reversal in trend,” Chifoi explained. “Now we are in the same window again. And people are not looking at it.”

Bitcoin seasonality analysis

First Crash, Then Surge?

The analyst also emphasized that current price action fits his broader fractal thesis. After Bitcoin’s local top at $109K earlier this year and the rejection that followed, the market appears to be chopping sideways—something he predicted back in late 2024. He expects this phase to continue into July 20, potentially ending with a sudden flush to the downside. But this, he argues, would be the setup for the next leg higher.

“Don’t be surprised if the drop comes with a lot of bad news,” he said. “Every time there’s a dump before a rally, the media has a narrative ready. That doesn’t mean it’s real. It just means the market is doing what it always does—shake out the majority.”

Chifoi also addressed broader market confluences, notably pointing out similar behavior in the S&P 500, where a corrective move in early July appears to align with his crypto timing model. He expects a pullback in both markets to precede the next upward thrust, targeting a Fibonacci resistance zone that historically acts as a pause point during price discovery.

Despite his bullishness, Chifoi made it clear he’s not buying Bitcoin right now. “I already bought below $20K,” he said. “At this point, I’m watching altcoin charts, looking for pullbacks to accumulate.”

He expressed frustration at the prevailing narratives circulating among large X accounts, particularly those pushing for rotating altcoins into Bitcoin under the assumption that dominance will rise indefinitely. “This is very stupid,” he said bluntly. “The market is behaving exactly as it should—for the fewest number of people to make money.”

In closing, Chifoi cautioned that those who insist on saying this time is different will likely find themselves on the wrong side of the trade. “Only if this time is different will this not play out. But if you base your strategy on those words, I can guarantee you 99% of the time, you won’t make money.”

As the July 20 pivot approaches, Chifoi’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s next move may catch a complacent market off guard. Whether or not history rhymes once more, the veteran analyst has made his stance clear: this is not a summer to sleep through.

At press time, BTC traded at $106,880.

Bitcoin price

Expert Explains Why Bitcoin Remains Stuck Below $120,000 Despite Wall Street’s Billions

As Bitcoin (BTC) experiences another dip, falling 5% below its record high of $111,800 reached during May’s crypto rally, analysts are probing the reasons behind its stagnation in the $100,000 to $110,000 range. 

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), crypto analyst DanteX outlined the factors contributing to this price resistance and what it could mean for the remainder of 2025.

What’s Holding Bitcoin Back?

Despite the substantial influx of nearly $5 billion in Bitcoin acquired through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in just a few weeks, the price of Bitcoin has failed to surpass the $120,000 target identified by analysts.

Public companies, Strategy and GameStop, have joined the ranks of institutional buyers, marking a significant shift in corporate interest toward Bitcoin. This growing demand indicates that there are substantial buyers ready to purchase at prices above $100,000.

However, DanteX asserts that the market has been characterized by an unusual phenomenon: the analyst alleges that someone appears to be “strategically offloading” Bitcoin in the $100,000 to $110,000 range, effectively absorbing the demand and preventing upward movement. 

This selling pressure seems to come from a major player—reportedly hedge funds or early investors—actively liquidating positions to offset the inflow of institutional capital.

Market Exhaustion Or Distribution? 

As the market enters the latter half of summer, a historically weak period for cryptocurrencies, concerns arise about liquidity and retail interest. 

DanteX noted that if the Bitcoin price cannot rally now, amid significant buying and market enthusiasm, the outlook may dim as trading volumes decline. 

The analyst further shared that the current price stagnation at near-record highs often indicates either market exhaustion or a distribution phase, suggesting that while demand exists, it is being countered by strategic selling.

Despite the overall positive macroeconomic environment—where stock markets are soaring, real yields are declining, and liquidity is increasing—DanteX highlights that the Bitcoin price remains unresponsive. 

The analyst stated that it could imply that current holders may not be ready for a breakout or are intentionally limiting potential gains. Interestingly, when Bitcoin price movements stall, capital tends to flow into altcoins, which are often viewed as higher-risk, higher-reward investments. 

DanteX believes that the current skepticism surrounding the likelihood of an altcoin season amid the current market condition, could actually set the stage for one, as many investors remain “under-positioned.”

Record ETF Inflows Fail To Translate Into Price Gains

The role of ETFs cannot be overlooked, DanteX further said. He said that while record inflows into ETFs signal strong institutional interest, they do not always correlate with immediate price increases, especially when met with significant selling pressure. 

DanteX notes that much of the exchange-traded fund exposure may be hedged or arbitraged, resulting in a complex market dynamic where asset growth does not immediately reflect in Bitcoin’s spot price.

Looking ahead, the analyst suggests monitoring the activity of large wallets, especially those exhibiting selling patterns that align with recent price suppression. 

Watching macroeconomic indicators, such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts or shifts in the value of the dollar, is also said to be crucial as these factors could influence market sentiment.

Bitcoin

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Altcoin Season Starting Soon? Analyst Predicts 37% Crash In Bitcoin Dominance

The Bitcoin dominance remaining on the high side has been one of the major hindrances for the altcoin season. Going by past performances, the Bitcoin dominance would have to crash for altcoins to have a chance to rally, but with the dominance still climbing, the chances of an altcoin season remain slim. As this trend continues, a crypto analyst has predicted a possible turn in the tide for the Bitcoin dominance, predicting a crash that could give altcoins a chance.

Bitcoin Dominance Rejection From Trendline Is Key

Over the years, the Bitcoin dominance has been following a trendline that has often marked the point of resistance. This trendline rises from 2017 and has sloped down past 2021 and now into the year 2025. The significance behind this is the breakdown from the trendline and the Bitcoin dominance receding sharply from here.

Presently, the Bitcoin dominance is still sitting high above 65% at the time of this writing, but this recent rise has seen it touch the resistance trendline. According to crypto analyst CoreCrypto, this is a critical inflection point, especially on the weekly chart. More importantly, this is usually the point where dominance recedes, giving rise to altcoin dominance.

Some major developments that the analyst tells investors to watch on the dominance chart include a rejection from the resistance trendline, where the dominance currently lies above 65%. There is also support for the dominance, as shown by the yellow line in the chart below. A break below this support is critical for the fall in the dominance.

Bitcoin dominance altcoin season

Another development to watch out for is for rising Ethereum strength. In the past, the Ethereum price starting to outperform the Bitcoin price has often signaled the start of the altcoin season. So, as the ETHBTC chart begins to strengthen and Bitcoin succumbs to sideways movement, it opens the door for altcoins to rally into the next altcoin season.

In the event of a break from the resistance trendline, the analyst sees the possibility of a sharp decline. CoreCrypto predicts a 36.91% drop to the 42%-45% levels. This is lower compared to previous altcoin seasons, but follows the declining trend of a 50.79% drop in 2017 compared to a 45.10% drop in 2021.

“If BTC.D gets rejected from this resistance again, it could mark the start of the long-awaited Altseason 2025,” the crypto analyst explained. “A breakdown from this wedge would likely result in capital rotation from BTC into altcoins — just like in previous cycles.”

Bitcoin dominance chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Holds Key Level Amid $108,000 Rejection, But Analysts Suggest Caution This Quarter

Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to reclaim the $108,000 resistance level again but faced rejection as the third quarter (Q3) started, leading some market watchers to suggest caution for the upcoming months.

Bitcoin Holds Crucial Range

Bitcoin’s price ended the second quarter with a retest of the $108,000 barrier before being rejected and closing Q2 and June around the $107,140 area, its highest monthly close in history.

Despite the positive performance, the flagship crypto started July with a pullback toward the $105,000, hitting a one-week low of $105,623. Analyst Rekt Capital affirmed that this suggested BTC’s post-breakout retest is in progress, which would strengthen the cryptocurrency’s case for another leg up.

The analyst previously explained that Bitcoin needed a weekly close above the $104,400 support after losing it, as reclaiming this area would solidify its price recovery and position the cryptocurrency for a retest and confirmation of this level.

Additionally, it would continue building its base around this area to transition into BTC’s second Discovery Uptrend. According to the Tuesday analysis, the new weekly close suggests Bitcoin is positioned for another post-breakout retest.

The analyst also noted that, in the past 40 days, BTC broke out of two 2-week downtrends but was rejected from the crucial 6-week downtrend, around the $108,000 mark, during the same timeframe.

Bitcoin

Sjuul from AltCryptoGems noted the rejection from this level, affirming that “it is mandatory for bulls to step in quickly and not allow the price to have too big of a dip.” The flagship crypto needs a “strong bounce from the most important support and resistance level, just at $106-104K,” which it has momentarily held.

To the analyst, failing to hold this area would open the door for a bigger pullback, risking a drop to the Macro support between $101,000 and $102,000. He highlighted a big gap between the current support area and the Macro support, which formed on the recent price recovery.

BTC Risks Massive Drop In Q3

Sjuul pointed out that below the $101,000 support, “there is not much to defend the price from falling much lower,” adding that the “historical quarterly return of BTC for Q3 has not been great, so this adds some extra caution to the picture we have taken from the chart.”

Similarly, Daan Crypto Trades asserted that historical data shows that Q3 is generally the slowest period for Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) due to the decreasing activity, volume, and liquidity during the summer months.

He added that, as a new quarter and month begin, BTC will likely see a “choppy start,” but Bitcoin is still consolidating within its current range and descending channel, suggesting that investors should give it time to “play out and watch for confirmations” of the direction it will take for the rest of the month.

Nonetheless, analyst Ali Martinez gave a warning signal, as an indicator that had predicted “every major Bitcoin crash” has just appeared. Per Martinez, the Tom Demark Sequential indicator, a rare warning that has historically preceded violent pullbacks, flashed a sell signal in the quarterly timeframe.

Notably, the same signal appeared in 2015 and 2018, with BTC retracing over 75% and 85% after the indicator flashed. If it follows its historical performance, the analyst forecasted that BTC could drop to the $40,000 mark this quarter.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $105,901, a 1.16% decline in the daily timeframe.

Bitcoin, BTC, BTCUSDT

Ethereum In Demand: ETF Inflow Streak Extends To 7 Weeks

Institutional demand for Ethereum appears strong as spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded seventh-straight week of inflows.

US Ethereum Spot ETFs Have Recently Seen Continuous Inflows

In a new post on X, the analytics firm Glassnode has shared an update on how the netflow related to the US Ethereum spot ETFs is looking. Spot ETFs are investment vehicles that allow investors to gain exposure to a given cryptocurrency without having to directly own tokens of it.

These ETFs trade on traditional platforms, so traders taking this route don’t have to bother with digital asset exchanges and wallets. For investors only familiar with the traditional mode, this fact can make the ETFs the preferrable mode of investment.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot ETFs for Ethereum in mid 2024, half a year after Bitcoin’s approval went through near the start of the year.

Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows how the aggregate netflow has been like for the US ETH spot ETFs during the past few months.

Ethereum Spot ETFs

As is visible in the graph, the Ethereum spot ETFs saw outflows earlier in the year, but the trend has been different since the final third of April. Save for a week in May, a net amount of capital has been pouring into these investment vehicles.

“As ETH rebounded from $2.2K to $2.5K, institutional appetite followed,” notes Glassnode. “Spot ETH ETFs recorded 106K ETH in net inflows last week – marking the 7th consecutive week of positive flows.”

Ethereum isn’t the only cryptocurrency that has recently been enjoying ETF inflows. As the analytics firm has pointed out in another X post, the number one digital asset, Bitcoin, is also seeing demand pick up.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs

As displayed in the above chart, Bitcoin has also been seeing a green netflow for the US spot ETFs, but due to a week of outflows in early June, the streak only stands at three weeks for the asset.

During the latest week, around 15,000 BTC flowed into the ETFs. In USD terms, that’s equivalent to $1.6 billion. For comparison, inflows amounted to $258.6 million for Ethereum. Clearly, while both have seen demand, there is a clear difference of scale involved between the two.

From the graph, it’s apparent that the US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw an acceleration of demand over the course of June. It only remains to be seen, though, whether the trend would keep up in this month of July.

ETH Price

Ethereum crossed the $2,500 level earlier, but it seems the coin has since faced a pullback as its price is back at $2,400.

Ethereum Price Chart

Bitcoin Price Trims Gains — Bulls Lose Steam Near Resistance

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from the $108,800 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for a move above the $106,500 resistance.

  • Bitcoin started a downside correction from the $108,800 zone.
  • The price is trading below $107,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
  • There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $106,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could start a fresh increase if it stays above the $105,000 zone.

Bitcoin Price Dips Further

Bitcoin price failed to surpass the $108,800 resistance and started a fresh decline. BTC declined below the $107,000 level.

The bears even pushed the price below the $106,000 level. A low was formed at $105,116 and the price is now trading in a range below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $108,792 swing high to the $105,116 low.

Bitcoin is now trading below $107,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $106,000 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $106,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price

The first key resistance is near the $106,500 level. A close above the $106,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $107,000 resistance level. It is close to the 50% Fib level of the downward move from the $108,792 swing high to the $105,116 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $108,000 level.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $106,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $105,500 level. The first major support is near the $105,000 level.

The next support is now near the $104,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $103,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $102,000, below which BTC might continue to move down.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $105,500, followed by $105,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $106,500 and $107,000.

Bitcoin Whales Just Realized $2.6B In Profit, Is the Market About to Crack or Soar?

Bitcoin remains within a relatively tight range, struggling to gain sufficient momentum to break the $110,000 mark. At the time of writing, the leading crypto by market cap trades at $106,437, down 1.1% over the past 24 hours and nearly 4.8% below its May all-time high.

The current consolidation range between $105,000 and $107,000 has prompted close monitoring of market behavior, especially from whales and long-term holders (LTHs), as the market attempts to find its next direction.

Bitcoin Whales Lead Market Activity as Profit Realization Surges

Recent data from CryptoQuant suggests that a significant shift in realized profits on Binance may be influencing short-term price trends. CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk highlighted a major event on June 16, when over $2.6 billion in profits were realized on Binance alone, the second-largest spike of its kind on the platform.

Exchange realized Bitcoin profits

This activity was followed by immediate selling pressure and market reaction, suggesting that profit-taking from large investors remains a core factor in the current price movement.

According to Crazzyblockk, the June 16 event saw a total of $4.5 billion in realized profits across centralized exchanges, with Binance accounting for nearly 58% of that volume.

“This milestone is more than just a data point — it’s a reminder of Binance’s unmatched influence on global crypto markets,” the analyst wrote.

He emphasized Binance’s role in price discovery and how whale behavior on the platform often serves as a proxy for broader market sentiment. As institutional participants and high-net-worth investors execute large moves on Binance, their actions can foreshadow phases of trend reversals or sustained accumulation.

The data also shows the importance of tracking realized profit and loss (PnL) metrics, especially on high-volume exchanges. The event reflects what Crazzyblockk described as “strategic profit-taking by sophisticated participants,” many of whom rely on Binance’s infrastructure for executing high-liquidity trades.

Long-Term Holder Selling Seen as Constructive Rotation

In a separate QuickTake post, CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent offered a different perspective by analyzing long-term holder activity.

Dent observed that although Bitcoin has been trading sideways between $100,000 and $110,000 since May, on-chain indicators such as Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB) and Binary CDD show persistent selling from long-term holders.

Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands metric.

These are entities that have held their coins for more than six months, indicating a redistribution of supply. However, Dent argues that this selling may not imply weakness.

“Despite this steady LTH selling, the price hasn’t broken down. This means the market is absorbing the sell pressure—implying new demand is coming in,” he explained. According to Dent, this dynamic, a rotation from older holders to new buyers, is common during mid-to-late stages of a bull market.

He also noted increased activity from coins held for one to three years, possibly reflecting profit-taking from previous cycle participants. Ultimately, Dent suggested the market may be undergoing a quiet redistribution, a phase that could lay the groundwork for future upside if buy-side demand remains strong.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitwise Just Sounded The Alarm—Bitcoin Could Explode Soon

The latest Crypto Market Compass from Bitwise Europe lands like a klaxon: every major gauge of risk appetite, liquidity and macro momentum is swinging in Bitcoin’s favor, and the firm argues the move could “provide a significant tailwind” for the benchmark asset. The study notes that Bitcoin already rebounded from $101,000 to about $108,000 in the past week as traders digested a potent cocktail of cooling inflation, thawing geopolitics and an increasingly dovish Federal Reserve stance.

Perfect Storm Brewing For Bitcoin

Bitwise’s proprietary Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has surged to its most optimistic reading since May—“now clearly signal[ing] a bullish sentiment again,” the authors write. Behind that surge lies an unprecedented torrent of capital into exchange-traded products: cumulative net inflows to global Bitcoin ETPs have reached a year-to-date record of $14.3 billion, with five consecutive sessions last week adding another $2.2 billion—or roughly 20,763 BTC—to the pile. “Cumulative net inflows … signal potential upside opportunity for the price of Bitcoin,” Bitwise says, adding that US spot ETFs are now on a 14-day winning streak that could eclipse the 16-day record set shortly after launch in early 2024.

Why are investors suddenly embracing risk? Bitwise points to what it calls a “decline in macro uncertainty.” July may deliver new US trade accords with Canada, while Washington and Tehran have struck a surprisingly conciliatory tone; former President Donald Trump has even floated lifting sanctions if Iran remains peaceful.

On top of that, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has tied the timing of a resumption of rate cuts to progress on tariff talks—an alignment that leaves the door open to looser policy within weeks. The report sums up the mood: “The trifecta of declining geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainty and potential monetary policy stimulus should continue to lift market sentiment and provide a significant tailwind for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.”

On-chain signals look equally primed. Whale wallets (1,000 BTC or more) withdrew 8,740 BTC from exchanges last week, exchange reserves sank to 2.898 million BTC—just 14.6 % of supply—and net selling pressure on spot venues fell from $2.2 billion to only $0.5 billion.

Derivatives paint a more nuanced picture: futures open interest slid by 20,000 BTC, and bearish perpetual funding rates hint at lingering short bias, but options markets show traders quietly standing down—put-call open interest fell to 0.59 while one-month implied volatilities eased toward 38%. Bitwise interprets the combination as “short-term consolidation” in the face of an intact longer-term uptrend.

Traditional markets are also thawing. Bitwise’s Cross-Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) index jumped from 0.31 to 0.49, reinforcing evidence that capital is rotating back into growth-sensitive trades. Some 70% of tracked altcoins beat Bitcoin last week, a breadth thrust historically associated with early-cycle bull phases.

In its bottom-line assessment, Bitwise stops short of price targets but leaves little doubt about direction: as long as geopolitical détente, trade breakthroughs and an accommodative Fed converge with relentless ETF inflows, “a decisive return in global risk appetite” is likely to keep Bitcoin on an upward trajectory. Should US spot ETFs secure just three more sessions of net inflows this week—surpassing their 2024 record—the firm suggests the market may discover how quickly a supply-constrained asset can react when the macro wind blows at its back.

At press time, BTC traded at $106,840.

Bitcoin price

Asia Morning Briefing: Leverage Meets Patience as Bitcoin Builds Toward a Breakout

As Asia opens the Wednesday trading day, bitcoin (BTC) is changing hands above $105.5K, a slight correction from $107K, where it sat during the U.S. business day.

Despite the geopolitical upheaval of the last few weeks – with the U.S. strike on Iran, an event that surprised both geopolitical scholars and Polymarket bettors – BTC has proven itself once again to be a resilient store of value. CoinDesk market data shows that the asset class has been fairly stable over the last month, up 1%.

But this return to a price point that looks inches away from BTC's all-time high of $111K, which it hit in May, feels more disciplined than euphoric, according to market observers.

Unlike the December 2024 breakout above $100K, which triggered a wave of profit-taking, long-term investors now appear content to sit on their gains, as Glassnode wrote in their weekly note.

“HODLing appears to be the dominant market mechanic,” Glassnode analysts wrote, citing a surge in long-term holder supply to 14.7 million BTC and historically low realized profits. On-chain activity indicates a limited desire to sell, even as BTC trades just below record levels.

Metrics like the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) also reflect this restraint, hovering just above breakeven, according to Glassnode. This suggests that the coins being spent are recent acquisitions. Think: tactical trades rather than broad distribution.

Meanwhile, Glassnode data shows the Liveliness metric continues to decline, reinforcing that older coins remain dormant.

That patience is being met with persistent institutional demand, as QCP wrote in its daily markets update.

Market data indicates that $2.2 billion in net inflows to BTC spot ETFs occurred last week, with QCP describing the tone as “constructive” and noting that players such as Strategy and Metaplanet continue to accumulate.

These steady inflows are quietly reshaping the market’s structure. Bitcoin’s realized cap, a measure of the price at which coins last moved, has grown to $955 billion, which is likely a sign that real capital, not just speculation, is moving into the asset.

Still, not everything is calm under the surface. QCP notes that leveraged long positions have been rising, with funding rates turning positive across major perpetual futures markets.

Glassnode warns that “the market may need to move higher, or lower, to unlock additional supply,” suggesting that this equilibrium between long-term conviction and short-term leverage won’t hold forever.

With BTC barely moving after the Senate approved the White House's 'Big Beautiful Bill', the market feels less like a stampede and more like a standoff between long-term holders who refuse to sell and short-term traders piling into leverage.

That fragile equilibrium has market observers wondering where the next catalyst will come from and whether it could make BTC’s next move explosive.

(CoinDesk)

Figma Holds $70M in BTC ETFs: Filing

Design software firm Figma has disclosed a $70 million position in the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) as part of its IPO filing.

The filing shows that board approved a $55 million BTC investment in March 2024, which has since appreciated by 27%.

A separate May resolution greenlit a $30 million USDC purchase, earmarked for future conversion to BTC bringing the total planned allocation to $100 million.

Recently, Hong Kong-based food conglomerate DDC Enterprise announced a $528 million capital raise this week, earmarked to buy 5,000 BTC over three years.

DeFi Development Corp. to Raise $100M in Convertible Notes, Eyes More SOL Accumulation

DeFi Development Corp. , the first publicly traded U.S. company with a treasury strategy built around Solana (SOL), announced in a Tuesday press release that it plans to raise $100 million through a private offering of convertible senior notes due 2030.

The offering, made under Rule 144A to qualified institutional buyers, includes an option for initial purchasers to acquire up to an additional $25 million in notes within 13 days of issuance.

Market Movements:

BTC: Bitcoin is holding around $106K, with on-chain data from Glassnode showing long-term holders largely unmoved.

ETH: Ethereum faced heavy selling after failing to break resistance at $2,522, ending a volatile 24-hour session marked by a 4.5% trading range.

Gold: Gold rose over 1% Tuesday, driven by a weaker dollar and global trade uncertainty, with spot prices hitting $3,357.85 and futures climbing to $3,353.80.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks were mixed Tuesday as investors rotated out of tech, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.11% to close at 6,198.01.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

Michael Saylor Drops $500 Million On Bitcoin—What’s His Next Move?

MicroStrategy has just added another 4,980 Bitcoin to its stash, spending about $531 million at an average of $106,801 per coin. That brings the company’s total haul to 597,325 BTC.

At today’s market price, those holdings are worth over $64  billion, compared with the roughly $42.4  billion MicroStrategy (now Strategy) has put in, fees included.

According to the June 30 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Strategy – led by billionaire Michael Saylor – is sitting on nearly $21.6  billion in unrealized gains.

Strategic Bitcoin Push

Strategy bought its latest batch during the week ending June 29. The firm has already snapped up 88,062  BTC worth nearly $10  billion so far this year. Back in 2024, the company picked up 140,538  BTC at a cost of $13  billion.

Company data shows a Bitcoin yield of almost 20% year‑to‑date, with 7.8% gained in the second quarter alone. That edges Strategy closer to its goal of a 25% yield by the end of 2025.

Corporate Treasury Trend

Strategy now controls almost 3% of all the Bitcoin ever mined out of the 21  million cap. That dominance has inspired 134 publicly traded firms to follow suit, adding Bitcoin to their corporate treasuries.

Recent adopters include Twenty One, US President Donald Trump’s media firm Trump Media, and GameStop. In Japan, Metaplanet added 1,005  BTC this week to bring its total to 13,350 BTC.

Over in Europe, The Blockchain Group bought 60 BTC, lifting its holdings to 1,788 BTC valued at around €161.3 million.

New Trading Products Arrive

Cryptocurrency exchanges are racing to meet all this demand. On June 28, Gemini rolled out a tokenized version of Strategy stock for investors in the EU. That marks the exchange’s first tokenized equity offering in that region.

Shares of Strategy have climbed nearly 5% over the past month, trading around $391, according to Google Finance data.

Price Resistance Looms

Bitcoin itself has been holding near $108,000. It rose as much as 3% over the weekend to hit $108,798.

Some traders, like MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe, expect a brief pullback before BTC tries to breach $109,000. That level sits on the four-hour chart as a clear resistance point.

Data from CoinGlass shows nearly $50 million in liquidity stacked at $109,500. If Bitcoin can clear the $110,000–$112,300 zone, it could trigger a short squeeze that pushes prices into fresh record territory.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin Price Risks Market Crash After Closing Below Final Weekly Resistance

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has warned about a potential crash for the Bitcoin price, after the flagship crypto closed below a critical resistance level. The analyst also highlighted the level that BTC needs to reclaim to invalidate this bearish setup. 

Bitcoin Price Risks Crash With Weekly Close Below Resistance

In an X post, Rekt Capital revealed that the Bitcoin price has closed below the final major weekly resistance at around $108,890. Based on this, he remarked that a possible early-stage Lower High resistance may be developing at around $107,720, with BTC at risk of crashing. The analyst added that Bitcoin will need to reclaim $108,890 as support on the daily to invalidate this Lower High. 

In an earlier X post, Rekt Capital highlighted how significant it would have been if the Bitcoin price had closed above this final major weekly resistance. He noted that BTC had never performed such a weekly close. As such, if that had happened last week, he claimed it would not only be “historic” but would enable BTC to enjoy a new uptrend into new all-time highs (ATHs).

Bitcoin

However, the Bitcoin price now appears to be on a downtrend, having failed to hold above the $107,720 level successfully. BTC had reached an intraday high of $107,970 but has since then been on a decline and is now at risk of losing the $106,800 macro level. Crypto analyst Kevin Capital has warned that BTC being below this level puts it in the danger zone. 

Meanwhile, based on historical bull market cycles, Rekt Capital has suggested that the Bitcoin price still has some more upside left. In an X post, he stated that history suggests that Bitcoin may end its bull market in two to three months.  

BTC Still Fuel In The Tank

Despite the recent Bitcoin price drop, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto declared that the flagship crypto still has fuel in the tank. He claimed that the weekly market structure remains strong with a series of higher highs and higher lows. The analyst added that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pushing towards its trendline. 

His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could still rally to as high as $140,000 between September and November later this year based on these higher highs and lows. Crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards also recently predicted that BTC could reach as high as $145,000 by September. He alluded to dojis that had formed for the flagship crypto in its current corrective channel and declared they were bullish for Bitcoin. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $106,800, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin