Report Says Ethereum Is Trading Well Below Fair Value, What’s The Correct Figure?

Ethereum’s price may have been dealt a massive blow as a research report on the Ethereum valuation has revealed that the cryptocurrency giant has been trading below its fair price.

Ethereum Trading Value Slips

A new on-chain research report has delved deep into the fair value of the Ethereum cryptocurrency since its inception, segregating the cryptocurrency’s value into sections and utilizing its trading activities and active addresses to evaluate the network’s worth over the past years. 

Lewis Harland, an RxR analyst, revealed in the research report that Ethereum has been trading below fair value by a 27% discount. The analyst arrived at this conclusion after employing the Metcalfe law-centric valuation model which involves comparing active user base on Ethereum’s robust scaling networks and active user adoption to measure the network’s fair value. 

Harland explained that Ethereum’s network valuation can be measured and tracked slightly more accurately when the active user base of the blockchain’s scaling networks is integrated into the model. He stated that if the model excludes active user bases, then Ether’s (ETH) valuation would be trading significantly below its fair value of $275 billion.

“Ethereum’s network valuation tracks the updated ML index better when the active user base of Ethereum’s scaling networks is factored into the model than when omitted,” Harland, stated in the research report.

He added that “the updated model, which does factor in these networks, puts ETH’s valuation at $275 billion (current MCAP trading at a 27% discount), assuming no further user growth in perpetuity.”

Going by Harland’s research, Ethereum should be trading at around $2,300 with a market cap of $275 billion. However, Ethereum’s price is currently sitting at $1,637 with a market capitalization of $197.62 billion. 

Ethereum price chart from Tradingview.com (ETH fair value)

Ethereum’s Worth Revealed Through Value Layers

While exploring the decline in Ethereum’s trading value, RxR disclosed its analysis of Ethereum’s supposed value using value layers. The research firm explained that Ethereum’s commodity value layer can be analyzed through the amount of ETH millions of users utilize to facilitate their crypto transactions daily.

It further stated that the annual run rate of the transaction fees is well over $1.6 billion presently. It also described Ethereum’s equity value, stating that “the value of ETH is the present-day value of the sum of all of its future cash flows. To date, over 3.5m ETH ($5.8B) has been burned by EIP-1559.”

Lastly, the research firm represented Ethereum’s network value layer, and the analysis utilized Metcalfe’s law approach to conclude the recent data that revealed that the Ethereum blockchain network was trading below fair value. 

Ethereum’s price has been dealing with a series of strong declines that may push the growth of the ecosystem back a few years. The tenacity of the cryptocurrency’s native token Ether (ETH) was tested when it fell to a critical support level of $1,530 earlier in September. However, the cryptocurrency later made a slight recovery which pushed it back to a more stable position.

As Ethereum Price Suffers, JPMorgan Strategist Hits The Asset With A 55% Lower Valuation

The past two days following the weekend close have not been the best for Ethereum. Along with the broader crypto market, the digital asset has suffered numerous dips that saw it break below $3,000 for the first time in a month. Although recovered back above $3,000, Ethereum continues to have a hard time maintain its position above this resistance point.

Although hopes are up in the community for recovery, a JPMorgan strategist has warned that the market is likely to see more dips that will drive the price of the digital asset further down. The strategist’s forecast essentially puts Ethereum in a bear market. Placing the bottom of the downtrend at less than half the current value of the digital asset.

Related Reading | Mid-Cap Altcoins Hold Onto Highs Better Than Bitcoin And Ethereum

Ethereum Is Overvalued

JPMorgan global market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said that ETH’s fair value is actually much lower than its current trading range. The strategist put the asset’s fair value at $1,500, less than half of its current price. Unlike the rest of the market, Panigirtzoglou does not believe that the Ethereal network is the most attractive for investors, even though the price might suggest otherwise.

ETH price struggles at $2,900 | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The growth of ETH recently has been attributed to the growth of market applications like decentralized finance. Currently, Ethereum is the leading smart contracts platform, which has seen the highest development of decentralized finance protocols. But even this does not convince the strategist of ETH’s current valuation.

According to Panigirtzoglou, the actual valuation of the digital asset should be 55% less than it currently is. Panigirtzoglou points out that with growing competition from other blockchains like Solana and Cardano, Ethereum’s offering is no longer unique and “can easily be replicated by other networks.”

The Rise Of The “ETH Killers”

Panigirtzoglou elaborated on the growing competition for Ethereum, highlighting that there are just going to be more blockchains popping up to compete with the network in the future. The strategist brought up Cardano’s latest upgrade, which added it to the growing list of competitors for Ethereum. “You’re already seeing competition from Binance, competition from Solana,” Panigirtzoglou said. “And there are going to be more in the future,” he added.

Related Reading | Ethereum Is Ready For Inevitable Climb Over $10,000, Says Crypto Analyst

The rise of the so-called “ETH Killers” has certainly been an interesting turning point for the crypto industry. Although Ethereum still hosts the majority of smart contract-related activities in the market, blockchains like Solana have started creeping up to take more share from the leading blockchain. Giving credence to Panigirtzoglou’s belief that these blockchains will make ETH less valuable in the long run.

Featured image from Libertex, chart from TradingView.com