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Bitcoin Has Been In A Class Of Its Own For The Last 10 Years, Top Expert Says

Bitcoin has encountered a critical resistance level going into the weekend and could move sideways following a massive rally. According to an expert, the cryptocurrency has been breaching every major obstacle, making it one of the best-performing assets.

As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $43,600 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. Over the previous seven days, BTC recorded a 14% increase, with Ethereum following its footsteps, recording a 13% rally.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 1

Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Digital Currency’s Journey to $40,000

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro for Fidelity, offers insightful analysis of Bitcoin’s trajectory, likening it to “exponential gold.”

His thesis suggests that Bitcoin, much like its elder counterpart, gold, holds value in times of structural inflation, yet it boasts an added venture twist. In that sense, Timmer believes both assets are prime to capture attention from investors looking to protect themselves from “reckless monetary inflation.”

As seen in the chart below, if Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory to the previous, its price could target $100,000 and $1,000,000 by early 2025.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 2

2020 was pivotal for Bitcoin and gold, with fiscal and monetary stimulus bolstering their appeal. However, Bitcoin differentiates itself with its capped supply of 21 million coins, contrasting gold’s continual but modest annual supply growth.

This limited supply has propelled Bitcoin’s “stock-to-flow” (S2F) ratio significantly higher than gold’s. Moreover, Bitcoin’s journey reflects the classic S-curve path of technological innovations. Its exponential growth trajectory mirrors historical trends in technology from railroads to cell phones.

However, predicting Bitcoin’s future based on these S-curves is complex, as slight deviations in these growth phases can “dramatically” alter outcomes, the expert claims.

SEC Deliberations And Institutional Interest Shape Bitcoin’s Future

Timmer’s observations include a potential impact of the SEC’s anticipated decisions on the Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). He theorizes that pending product applications could attract new investors, yet he remains cautious about whether this will trigger a “sell-the-news” event and a large drawdown.

Interestingly, a small percentage of Bitcoin is held for under three months, suggesting that the recent price surge is not merely “speculative,” offering support for a longer bullish trend.

The true believers in Bitcoin, as indicated by the growing percentage held for over five or ten years, are unlikely to be swayed by short-term news. However, there is notable activity in the Bitcoin futures market, particularly among asset managers, which could suggest anticipation of the SEC movement.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 3

Any updates from the SEC would arrive in a transformed macroeconomic environment. Unlike the liquidity-rich period of 2020-21, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent policy shifts have reversed the surge in monetary inflation.

This shift aligns the current situation more with the post-World War II era than the inflationary 1970s, impacting the urgency of the value proposition for gold and Bitcoin.

As BTC matures, its relationship with traditional financial markets and global economic trends becomes increasingly intricate. With the SEC’s decision and a shift in the macro-arena, the coming months are poised to exercise influence over the premier cryptocurrency and the nascent sector.

Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Posted on

Bitcoin Has Been In A Class Of Its Own For The Last 10 Years, Top Expert Says

Bitcoin has encountered a critical resistance level going into the weekend and could move sideways following a massive rally. According to an expert, the cryptocurrency has been breaching every major obstacle, making it one of the best-performing assets.

As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $43,600 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. Over the previous seven days, BTC recorded a 14% increase, with Ethereum following its footsteps, recording a 13% rally.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 1

Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Digital Currency’s Journey to $40,000

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro for Fidelity, offers insightful analysis of Bitcoin’s trajectory, likening it to “exponential gold.”

His thesis suggests that Bitcoin, much like its elder counterpart, gold, holds value in times of structural inflation, yet it boasts an added venture twist. In that sense, Timmer believes both assets are prime to capture attention from investors looking to protect themselves from “reckless monetary inflation.”

As seen in the chart below, if Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory to the previous, its price could target $100,000 and $1,000,000 by early 2025.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 2

2020 was pivotal for Bitcoin and gold, with fiscal and monetary stimulus bolstering their appeal. However, Bitcoin differentiates itself with its capped supply of 21 million coins, contrasting gold’s continual but modest annual supply growth.

This limited supply has propelled Bitcoin’s “stock-to-flow” (S2F) ratio significantly higher than gold’s. Moreover, Bitcoin’s journey reflects the classic S-curve path of technological innovations. Its exponential growth trajectory mirrors historical trends in technology from railroads to cell phones.

However, predicting Bitcoin’s future based on these S-curves is complex, as slight deviations in these growth phases can “dramatically” alter outcomes, the expert claims.

SEC Deliberations And Institutional Interest Shape Bitcoin’s Future

Timmer’s observations include a potential impact of the SEC’s anticipated decisions on the Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). He theorizes that pending product applications could attract new investors, yet he remains cautious about whether this will trigger a “sell-the-news” event and a large drawdown.

Interestingly, a small percentage of Bitcoin is held for under three months, suggesting that the recent price surge is not merely “speculative,” offering support for a longer bullish trend.

The true believers in Bitcoin, as indicated by the growing percentage held for over five or ten years, are unlikely to be swayed by short-term news. However, there is notable activity in the Bitcoin futures market, particularly among asset managers, which could suggest anticipation of the SEC movement.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 3

Any updates from the SEC would arrive in a transformed macroeconomic environment. Unlike the liquidity-rich period of 2020-21, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent policy shifts have reversed the surge in monetary inflation.

This shift aligns the current situation more with the post-World War II era than the inflationary 1970s, impacting the urgency of the value proposition for gold and Bitcoin.

As BTC matures, its relationship with traditional financial markets and global economic trends becomes increasingly intricate. With the SEC’s decision and a shift in the macro-arena, the coming months are poised to exercise influence over the premier cryptocurrency and the nascent sector.

Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Posted on

Bitcoin Has Been In A Class Of Its Own For The Last 10 Years, Top Expert Says

Bitcoin has encountered a critical resistance level going into the weekend and could move sideways following a massive rally. According to an expert, the cryptocurrency has been breaching every major obstacle, making it one of the best-performing assets.

As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $43,600 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. Over the previous seven days, BTC recorded a 14% increase, with Ethereum following its footsteps, recording a 13% rally.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 1

Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Digital Currency’s Journey to $40,000

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro for Fidelity, offers insightful analysis of Bitcoin’s trajectory, likening it to “exponential gold.”

His thesis suggests that Bitcoin, much like its elder counterpart, gold, holds value in times of structural inflation, yet it boasts an added venture twist. In that sense, Timmer believes both assets are prime to capture attention from investors looking to protect themselves from “reckless monetary inflation.”

As seen in the chart below, if Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory to the previous, its price could target $100,000 and $1,000,000 by early 2025.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 2

2020 was pivotal for Bitcoin and gold, with fiscal and monetary stimulus bolstering their appeal. However, Bitcoin differentiates itself with its capped supply of 21 million coins, contrasting gold’s continual but modest annual supply growth.

This limited supply has propelled Bitcoin’s “stock-to-flow” (S2F) ratio significantly higher than gold’s. Moreover, Bitcoin’s journey reflects the classic S-curve path of technological innovations. Its exponential growth trajectory mirrors historical trends in technology from railroads to cell phones.

However, predicting Bitcoin’s future based on these S-curves is complex, as slight deviations in these growth phases can “dramatically” alter outcomes, the expert claims.

SEC Deliberations And Institutional Interest Shape Bitcoin’s Future

Timmer’s observations include a potential impact of the SEC’s anticipated decisions on the Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). He theorizes that pending product applications could attract new investors, yet he remains cautious about whether this will trigger a “sell-the-news” event and a large drawdown.

Interestingly, a small percentage of Bitcoin is held for under three months, suggesting that the recent price surge is not merely “speculative,” offering support for a longer bullish trend.

The true believers in Bitcoin, as indicated by the growing percentage held for over five or ten years, are unlikely to be swayed by short-term news. However, there is notable activity in the Bitcoin futures market, particularly among asset managers, which could suggest anticipation of the SEC movement.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 3

Any updates from the SEC would arrive in a transformed macroeconomic environment. Unlike the liquidity-rich period of 2020-21, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent policy shifts have reversed the surge in monetary inflation.

This shift aligns the current situation more with the post-World War II era than the inflationary 1970s, impacting the urgency of the value proposition for gold and Bitcoin.

As BTC matures, its relationship with traditional financial markets and global economic trends becomes increasingly intricate. With the SEC’s decision and a shift in the macro-arena, the coming months are poised to exercise influence over the premier cryptocurrency and the nascent sector.

Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

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Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval: Why Price Could Be Set For 300% Surge

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price could be set to experience a 300% surge if a Spot Bitcoin ETF is finally approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

BTC Could Surge 300% When A Spot ETF Is Approved

The predictions of Bitcoin experiencing a 300% surge in its price from analysts can be traced back to the growth of Gold over the years after a Spot Gold ETF (SPDR Gold Shares) was approved back in November 2004, and listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

The price of Gold had experienced an eight-year consecutive bull run following its first spot gold ETF. Before the listing, the price of Gold as of November 2004, was around $430/oz, and 3 years later, the numbers had doubled.

Fast-forward to the end of 2011, the price of gold was already trading at $1,800/oz indicating a 300% surge in price. Currently, the price of gold is closely gaining on its highest peak price of $1,977/oz, bolstered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

Gold moves slowly and steadily, and it is significantly less volatile than Bitcoin, but analysts anticipate the price of Bitcoin is likely to reach $120,000 in the next couple of years if the digital asset manages to reiterate the movement of Gold since its spot gold ETF approval. If the Bitcoin price were to follow this same pattern, then it could hit $100,000.

Recently, Bitcoin has achieved its highest price peak of $35,000 since May 2022. The recent increase in price can be traced back to the propaganda and excitement encompassing a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. However, the digital asset is still 50% down from its all-time high in 2021.

Last week, Bitcoin experienced a whirlwind rise of over 10% within minutes after a false report was released by Cointelegraph that a spot Bitcoin ETF had been approved by the SEC. However, the digital asset’s price later fell almost immediately after the report was proven to be false by Blackrock’s Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink.

Its significant market movement this week has prompted analysts to enter “price prediction mode.” The breakout was anticipated by cryptocurrency expert Mags for the end of the year. In addition, a decline below $30,000 is anticipated within the following few months.

Analysts believe that this will be the last area of accumulation before a significant breakout that would see the asset rise up to $50,000 prior to the halving. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Spot Bitcoin ETF Gold ETF)

Bitcoin Spot ETF Boasts Higher Chance Of Approval

Recently, analysts have predicted a spot Bitcoin ETF to be approved by January 2024, due to the recent developments following the approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC.

Bloomberg crypto analyst James Seyffart shared his team’s prediction of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval on his official X (former Twitter) handle. The team believes that there is a 90% chance of approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by January 10, 2024.

The team’s prediction came amidst ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF filling that had been updated with 5 new pages. The move suggested a “constructive conversation” with the SEC, an indication that an investment fund is likely to be approved soon. 

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Is This The Best Bitcoin Price Indicator Right Now? Must-Know Details

Following recent geopolitical events, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin prices has once again come under scrutiny by market analysts. Here’s a comprehensive dive into the relationship and its implications.

The Gold And Bitcoin Correlation

After the recent Israel-Hamas war, gold experienced a rapid uptick in its price. This shift interestingly mirrored movements in the Bitcoin market, emphasizing a revived correlation between the two assets. Skew, a reputable market analyst, shared his insights on X (formerly Twitter), noting on October 11 that “correlation has been rather loosely applicable to BTC periods of 35 days + where there’s price disconnection between both markets.”

However, only days later, on October 16, he observed a potential “re-correlation” as both Bitcoin followed the latest gold rally. Today, the statement stands stronger with Skew’s latest tweet, “BTC & gold correlation still there it seems. Gold may lead the next big move for BTC.”

Bitcoin gold correlation

In his recent insights shared in the Onramp Weekly Roundup, Bitcoin analyst Dylan LeClair emphasized the implications of the ongoing selloff in government bonds. Rising costs for long-term financing directly influence the global cost of capital, offering a valuation yardstick for various assets.

More significantly, the treasury market underpins the global financial ecosystem. Its current instability could pressure asset prices and exacerbate the pre-existing debt cycle, potentially endangering the US’s fiscal position. This precarious state contrasts sharply with the US administration’s fiscal actions, as evidenced by plans like the “WHITE HOUSE EYES $100 BILLION UKRAINE, ISRAEL AND BORDER ASK”, suggesting a lack of fiscal restraint, according to LeClair.

Gold, Real Yields, And The Changing Landscape

Further complicating matters, Bill Dudley, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in his recent Bloomberg piece, noted the likelihood of the current cycle of quantitative tightening (QT) persisting until late 2025. This prolonged QT could heighten long-term interest rates and risk treasury market turbulence. Yet, should severe dysfunction manifest in the treasury market, the Federal Reserve might reconsider its QT trajectory.

Interestingly, post the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the subsequent confiscation of Russia’s G7 reserves, gold, and real yields have shown an atypical positive correlation, challenging their historical negative relationship.

Gold vs 10-year real rates (inverse)

In this evolving geopolitical landscape where even G7 sovereign debt isn’t immune to confiscation, traditional ‘safe assets’ are being reevaluated.  This uncertainty combined with the not-so-safe “risk free” yield from treasuries has bolstered gold’s position (and price) as a counter-risk monetary asset and may push Bitcoin on a similar trajectory.

According to LeClair:

This repositioning, however, isn’t limited to gold alone. Bitcoin, with its unique advantages and growing liquidity profile, is on a similar trajectory, albeit still in the very early stages of its monetization with a $500b market cap.

The Best BTC Price Indicator?

Under these current conditions, the price of gold may be a leading indicator for the price of Bitcoin, assuming that the correlation between the two assets continues. This would imply that Bitcoin is classified as a “safe haven” asset like gold by a majority of investors, rather than a “risk asset”.

However, this view is not shared by all. James Butterfill, the head of research at CoinShares, pointed out that the Bitcoin market has shifted its focus after the fake news regarding a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. He remarked that investors now seem to prioritize the ETF approval over macro expectations, placing less emphasis on the Federal Reserve’s actions.

Since the Coin Telegraph tweet mistake on a Bitcoin Spot ETF approval, Bitcoin prices have decoupled from December interest rate expectations – it seems like investors are solely focussed on the ETF approval now, and not what the FED does.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $28,450.

Bitcoin price

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Crypto Analyst: Bitcoin To Surpass Gold And Silver Within A Decade

On Tuesday, an anonymous crypto analyst from a popular YouTube channel InvestAnswer shared more light on the future of Bitcoin. The analyst revealed that Bitcoin (BTC) is set to surpass both Gold and Silver in market capitalization in no more than a decade.

BTC Is A Safer Haven Than Gold And Silver

Over the years, Bitcoin has been regarded as digital gold due to the fact that the cryptocurrency offers the same benefits as gold with even additional features. In times of economic and political turbulence, BTC has been seen as a safe haven.

In the YouTube video, the crypto analyst was able to highlight the underlying difference between Bitcoin and Gold, since Silver is no longer a safe haven and gold has been a more reliable precious metal than Silver.

According to the crypto analyst, there has been distraught among the crypto community on the idea of whether the paper versions of gold and Bitcoin can change their real-world prices and potential price manipulations by financial giants such as JPMorgan and Blackrock. 

However, the analyst was kind to shed more light on the growing issue in the YouTube video. He said, “For gold, it’s impossible to know if there is a gold backing to the paper that exists, which makes things very risky. On the other hand with Bitcoin, it’s much easier to prove and check making it much more trustworthy.”

In addition, the analyst stated that he strongly believes that Bitcoin will surpass Gold in 8-10 years, not just because of the preceding reasons but because the cryptocurrency can be so easy to verify.

“Believe me, forget the other 20 advantages that Bitcoin has over gold. I believe Bitcoin will smash gold performance over the next 8 to 10 years because you can verify. Therefore, I know a lot of people are worried about paper and manipulation by the JPMorgan and the BlackRocks of the world but they can’t because it can be so easily verified.” he stated.

Another crypto analyst David Waugh, the lead analyst of Coinbits, has also backed the cryptocurrency. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s technological developments make it a superior asset over gold.

He further added that the crypto’s improvements in divisibility, portability, durability, verifiability, and scarcity make the digital asset a more efficient and reliable store of value.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Gold and silver)

Grayscale Bitcoin ETF Approval Sparks Momentum

Recently, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been given less than a day to file an appeal on the Grayscale plan to convert GBTC into a Bitcoin ETF or will be forced to approve the company’s plan.

If the SEC fails to file an appeal before the end of the day, it could spark a possible bullish run in the crypto market as it means it is not contesting Grayscale’s win.

Currently, Grayscale owns a significant amount of BTC, which it holds in trust and offers investors shares of the cryptocurrency as GBTC. If the company wins the case with the SEC, it could signal a possible bullish run for Bitcoin.

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Legendary Investor Declares Now Is The Time To Buy Bitcoin: Here’s Why

In a recent interview with CNBC, billionaire hedge fund manager and legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones expounded on his bullish stance on Bitcoin amidst mounting global tensions and economic uncertainties.

Jones, an influential figure in the investment world, highlighted the current geopolitical environment as one of the most “threatening and challenging” he has ever witnessed and emphasized the importance of diversifying investment portfolios with assets like Bitcoin and gold.

Jones told CNBC, “I love gold and bitcoin together. I think they probably take on a larger percentage of your portfolio than they would [historically] because we’re going to go through both a challenging political time here in the United States and we’ve obviously got a geopolitical situation.”

Now Is The Time To Buy Bitcoin And Gold

Recent global events have exacerbated these sentiments. Over the weekend, the Israeli government launched a military response against Hamas following an attack on Israel, escalating tensions in an already fragile Middle Eastern region. Additionally, Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine and growing discord between China and the US have further rattled global markets and economies.

In the same breath, Jones remarked on the US’s alarming fiscal position, stating it’s “probably in its weakest fiscal position since World War II.”

Responding to concerns about the potential impact of high interest rates on Bitcoin, Jones delved deeper into the dynamics of gold and market trades preceding a recession. He stipulated, “I think on a relative basis what’s happened to gold, it has been clearly suppressed. But you know that more likely or not we are going into a recession.”

Jones underscored a few hallmarks of recessionary trading environments, indicating, “There are some pretty clear recession trades. The easiest are: the yield curve gets very steep, home premium goes into the backend of the debt market and the 10-year, 30-year, 7-year paper, the stock market typically right before recession declines about 12%.” This decline, according to Jones, is not just plausible but likely to transpire at a certain juncture.

Additionally, he emphasized the prospective bullish market for assets like Bitcoin and gold during economic downturns, stating, “And when you look at the big shorts in gold, more likely or not in a recession, the market is typically very long; assets like Bitcoin and gold.”

Jones further prognosticated a substantial influx into the gold market, speculating, “So there’s probably $40 billion worth of buying coming in gold at some point before now and when that recession actually occurs.” Expressing his asset preference amidst the aforementioned conditions, Jones concisely noted, “So, I like Bitcoin and I like gold right now.”

Jones’s endorsement of Bitcoin isn’t new as the investor had previously championed the digital currency in several interviews, citing its potential as a hedge against inflation and lauding its immutable mathematical properties.

He once remarked, “Bitcoin is math, and math has been around for thousands of years.” By mid-2021, Jones even increased his Bitcoin allocation from 1-2%, labeling it as a “bet on certainty amid uncertain economic conditions.”

Jones’s remarks came at a time when the cryptocurrency saw an approximate 63% increase year to date, making it the best-performing asset in 2023.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $27,116, down roughly 2% over the past 24 hours. Amidst the recent price drop, BTC initially found support at the 200-day EMA (blue line), which the bulls should hold at all costs to avoid further downward momentum.

Bitcoin price

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Bitcoin And Gold Poised For Growth Amidst US Fiscal Troubles, Top Macro Investor Says

Bitcoin (BTC) and gold, two seemingly divergent assets, find common ground in the eyes of veteran macro investor Luke Gromen. In a recent interview, Gromen posits that these assets could flourish as the fiscal challenges in the United States continue to mount.

Gromen’s argument hinges on the idea that both gold and Bitcoin are “duration assets” with fixed supplies and the potential for their face values to rise. In times of fiscal distress, these assets tend to shine.

As the US grapples with fiscal issues exacerbated by relentless quantitative easing and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policies, Gromen believes that this environment will create a fertile ground for gold, oil, and Bitcoin.

“[Gold and BTC will do well] because they are simply duration assets with a more fixed supply and a face value that can rise,” he stated.

“They do well when a nation has a fiscal problem, and when the reserve currency issue of the world and her allies all have fiscal problems, and hers is at least as bad or probably worse than the others – even Europe – then it’s really good for gold and Bitcoin.”

BRICS And The Dollar’s Reshaping

Gromen also delved into the potential ramifications of the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) launching a gold-backed currency. Such a move could undermine the US dollar’s longstanding position as the world’s reserve currency. The prospect of a gold-backed currency gaining traction among these major economies could weaken the dollar’s dominance in international trade and finance.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency sector is experiencing a bullish surge, with Bitcoin leading the charge. It has surpassed the critical psychological threshold of $28,000, sparking optimism among investors. Notably, Cryptoinsightuk, a pseudonymous crypto trading analyst, has conducted a revealing analysis of Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) indicator.

Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum

Cryptoinsightuk’s analysis tracks the instances when Bitcoin’s weekly RSI crossed above the 50 mark (green) and then dropped below this level (red). The expert found that, on average, these events led to a remarkable 1,100% price increase for Bitcoin. Such a surge could become a reality in the right circumstances, including a supply squeeze and the introduction of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

As Bitcoin’s price currently hovers around $27,539 with a 1.2% decline over the past 24 hours but a 4.9% gain over the last seven days, investors are closely monitoring these developments, eagerly awaiting signs of whether Bitcoin’s bullish momentum will persist in the coming weeks and months.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from iStock