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Goldman Sachs On Bitcoin Halving: ‘It doesn’t Matter If It’s A Buy The Rumor, Sell The News Event’

Analysts at Goldman Sachs, a leading global banking and investment management firm, have offered valuable insights into the anticipated effects of the forthcoming Bitcoin halving, on the price of the cryptocurrency. They emphasize that while the Bitcoin halving is a noteworthy event, other major factors will likely exert greater influence on Bitcoin’s future value. 

Bitcoin Halving To Play Lesser Role In BTC’s Outlook

In a note to clients, Goldman Sach’s analysts have cautioned against reading too much into the past Bitcoin halving cycles and their impact on the cryptocurrency. Based on historical trends, the Bitcoin halving cycles tend to have a favorable effect on the value of Bitcoin, often triggering a bull run. 

The bank noted that whether the Bitcoin halving scheduled for April 20, becomes a “buy the rumor, sell the news event,” it would hold less significance for the cryptocurrency’s medium-term outlook.

They argue that the future performance of the pioneer cryptocurrency would be more heavily influenced by the supply and demand dynamics within the current market. Additionally, the analysts highlighted that the growing interest and demand for Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) combined with the self-reflexive nature of the crypto market would be the primary contributing factor to Bitcoin’s price action and future outlook. 

Sharing a similar perspective, analysts at CryptoQuant disclosed earlier in April that the 2024 Bitcoin halving was no longer a primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s bullish surge. They highlighted that factors such as increasing demand from large-scale investors and diminishing supply were now the key drivers of Bitcoin’s upward momentum.  

Analysts Warn Of Macroeconomic Influence On New Halving Cycle

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have predicted that macroeconomic factors such as inflation could have a significant influence on the upcoming Bitcoin halving event. 

“Caution should be taken against extrapolating the past cycles and the impact of halving, given the respective prevailing macro conditions,” Goldman Sachs analysts noted.

Unlike previous halving cycles, the present economic conditions display high inflationary pressures and interest rates, which could cause the 2024 Bitcoin halving cycle to diverge from historical patterns. In other words, the analysts have suggested that for Bitcoin’s historical halving bull runs to occur, macro conditions need to be supportive of investor risk-taking. 

Currently, the United States faces challenges with high inflation, while interest rates stand above 5%. These conditions may exert pressure on Bitcoin’s market dynamics. However, despite the prevailing circumstances, many see the digital currency as a formidable inflation hedge and a beacon of hope against escalating inflationary pressures.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin Resurgence: Analyst Foresees $69,000 Target In Near Term

Crypto Jelle, a cryptocurrency analyst and aficionado, has expressed optimism toward the price action of Bitcoin, highlighting the potential for the digital asset to revisit the $69,000 threshold in the short term.

Bitcoin Poised For Short-Term Gains

Due to waning interest in the cryptocurrency market, the price of Bitcoin fell by 5.60% to $66,650. However, the latest price decline does not seem to have dampened traders’ and analysts’ expectations for a sustained bull run, and one of those is analyst Crypto Jelle.

Crypto Jelle advocates for the largest crypto asset noting that although Bitcoin did not break $69,000 in one go, it appears that it is making a new higher low at this point. He believes that the coin could reach the aforementioned price again soon, urging investors to hold around the $66,500 price level. Thus, he advises the crypto community and traders to be patient, since the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving is approaching quickly.

Bitcoin

Jelle underscored that new all-time highs for Bitcoin do not happen in one go. According to the analyst, every ATH breakout over the past years was preceded by a chopping period. As a result, a large number of people tend to lose hope in the crypto asset, prompting them not to invest in BTC. Given the recent performance of BTC, Jelle claims, we are witnessing the same thing occur once more.

Drawing attention to a bullish pennant formation, Jelle stated that Bitcoin currently appears to be getting ready to break out of this area. This is due to a strong bounce from the 4-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 200, and now reaching an even higher low. Based on the development, the crypto expert anticipates the breakout to take place in the upcoming weeks.

Within the next 15 days, the Bitcoin halving event has been slated to commence. Given its past impact on BTC’s price, Crypto Jelle’s prediction could come to pass more quickly than anticipated.

Two Events Aside from Halving Considered To Boost BTC’s Price This Year

While the community is hoping for the halving event to improve prices, Lark Davis, a crypto expert has pointed out two other events that could impact the asset significantly, affirming a bullish year for BTC.

These include the United States elections scheduled to happen in November, and the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. According to Davis, these events are equally as important as the halving event as they will propel the bull market even further.

With the stock market performing traditionally well, around 83% during an election, and Bitcoin being part of Wall Street, BTC is expected to rise. Davis then mentioned the three rate decreases that Goldman Sachs said would occur in 2024, starting in June.

It is worth noting Goldman Sachs predicts that the terminal interest rates will fall between 3.25% and 3.5%. Davis believes these reductions will increase market liquidity and encourage investors to invest more in cryptocurrency assets.

Bitcoin

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Goldman Sachs Exec Predict Massive Growth For Digital Assets In 2024

Head of Digital Assets at Goldman Sachs, Matthew McDermott, has projected a massive growth in the cryptocurrency market in 2024. McDermott shared these positive predictions in a recent interview with Fox Business, expressing much optimism in the future of digital assets. 

Goldman Exec Expects Spot ETFs To ‘Gradually’ Boost Institutional Demand For Crypto Assets

Speaking to Fox Business, McDermott has backed the continuous growth of cryptocurrencies as he foresees a rise in the institutional adoption of these assets. 

Notably, the Goldman executive shares popular sentiment with many crypto enthusiasts that the approval of a Bitcoin or Ethereum spot ETF will open up the digital asset ecosystem to more institutional investors who are weary of the market volatility attached to direct crypto investments. 

McDermott said:

One, it broadens and deepens the liquidity in the market. And why does it do that? It does that because you’re actually creating institutional products that can be traded by institutions that don’t need to touch the bare assets. And I think that, to me, that opens up the universe of the pensions, insurers, etc. 

However, McDermott has cautioned crypto enthusiasts against expecting a sudden impact of crypto spot ETFs. He believes the anticipated increased demand and price rise will be a gradual process that will occur over the course of 2024. 

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to grant approval orders to several Bitcoin spot ETF applications in the coming weeks following discussions between the regulator and multiple asset managers. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has set a potential decision window of January 8 – January 10, stating there is a 90% chance the SEC finally delivers a verdict on these various applications putting an end to the 6-months chronicle.

Asset Tokenization In 2024

In addition to potential crypto spot ETFs, McDermott also mentioned a potential increase in commercial blockchain application as another contributing factor to his projected rise in institutional demand for digital assets.

Particularly, he spoke about an improvement in existing tokenization systems, which can lead to the creation of secondary liquidity on blockchains.

He said:

When I think about tokenization, which is obviously a topic that’s kind of talked about quite extensively, I think for me next year what we’ll start to see is the development of marketplaces. So where we start to see scale adoption, particularly across the buy side in the context of investors. And that’s because we’ll start to see the emergence of secondary liquidity on chain, and that’s a key enabler. So for me, that’s one of the key developments for next year.”

At the time of writing, the entire crypto ecosystem is valued at $1.602 trillion, with a 15.09% gain in the last month. The market’s leader Bitcoin currently trades at $42,082, having declined by 1% in the past day.

Goldman Sachs