Continuing pro-Palestine protests won’t lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard’s president, the prediction market signals. Plus: Kalshi bettors don’t think Taylor Swift will break her record.
How to Design Better On-Chain Governance
An introduction to Futarchy and combinatorial prediction markets.
How Many Years Will SBF Get? Jury’s Out on Betting Platform Polymarket
Plus: Tesla’s delivery numbers will fall short of record, Kalshi traders signal; “Ghostbusters” fandom underestimated.
U.S. CFTC’s Behnam Says Agency Writing New Policy on Prediction Markets
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Rostin Behnam said his agency will propose a rule in the coming months to establish new regulations for prediction markets.
He Exposed Harvard President’s Plagiarism, Then Lost Money Betting on the Story
Are prediction markets the future of investigative journalism? Maybe, says Chris Brunet, whose reporting led to Claudine Gay’s resignation – though he’s yet to profit from his scoops.
Bitcoin ETF Frenzy Brings Windfall Volume to Decentralized Predictions Platform Polymarket
Polymarket saw betting contracts worth more than $5.7 million change hands on Wednesday.
CFTC Chief: Nothing Changed After FTX Meltdown to Empower Agency to Prevent Repeat
U.S. regulators don’t have any more authority now to head off another major crypto collapse than they did when FTX imploded and took much of the industry with it, said Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Rostin Behnam.
Americans (Seemingly) Aren’t Allowed to Put This Economic Theory to the Test
CFTC Denies Kalshi’s Plan to Let Users Bet on Control of U.S. Congress
Regulators said the plans weren’t in the public interest, after a court squabble involving rival service PredictIt
BitMEX’s Prediction Market is Now Live
Current prediction market contracts revolve around FTX bankruptcy claim recoveries, the future of bitcoin ETFs, and Sam Bankman-Fried’s jail sentence.
CFTC Kicks Off Review of Kalshi’s Congressional Control Prediction Markets
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission began a formal review and public comment period to evaluate prediction market Kalshi’s proposed contracts to bet on who will control Congress.
CFTC to Review Prediction Market Kalshi’s Contracts to Bet on Control of Congress
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will decide on June 26 whether to start a formal 90-day review of prediction market provider KalshiEX’s contract that allows users to bet on which party takes control of the U.S. Congress.
How Crypto Transforms Prediction Markets
Betting can be used to predict the future. That’s the crazy idea behind prediction markets. Here’s how they work and where cryptocurrency fits into the picture.
The 2020 Elections Are Boosting Crypto Prediction Markets
Decentralized betting platforms like Polymarket and YieldWars are seeing accelerated trading volume growth leading up to the 2020 presidential election.
Crypto Traders Bet on US Election as FTX Prediction Markets Hit Record Volumes
October sees record volume for TRUMP and BIDEN markets three weeks ahead of the U.S. election.
Election 2020 Prediction Markets: Bettors Say Trump Lost Tuesday’s Debate
With the first presidential debate now smoldering behind us, the betting markets have picked their winner: Joe Biden.
What Is DeFi?
DeFi is short for “decentralized finance,” an umbrella term for Ethereum and blockchain applications geared toward disrupting financial intermediaries.
Ethereum Gas Fees Drive Gnosis-Powered Prediction Market to xDai’s Layer 2
“Ethereum is on the way to becoming a whale chain,” said Gnosis co-founder Stefan George. That’s why his team’s tech is moving to xDai.
Prediction Markets’ Time Has Come, but They Aren’t Ready for It
After the pundits so badly misjudged the 2016 U.S. presidential election, prediction markets should be booming ahead of Nov. 3. Why aren’t they?
5 Years After Launch, Predictions Market Platform Augur Releases Version 2
Augur v2 has all the bells and whistles: Interplanetary File System (IPFS), 0x Mesh, MakerDAO’s dai and Uniswap’s v2 oracle network.
