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Bitcoin Could Hit $86,000 If This Key Level Is Surpassed: Analyst

In a compelling forecast for Bitcoin, Ali Martinez, a well-known cryptocurrency expert and trader, has pointed out a possible development that could propel the crypto asset’s price to the $86,000 threshold in the foreseeable future.

Bitcoin Movement Determined By Key Levels

The analyst’s positive perspective highlights the possibility of a large upward shift in the price trend of Bitcoin, igniting interest and speculation in the cryptocurrency space.  Ali Martinez’s analysis primarily focuses on several key support and resistance levels, of which a break out from these levels will determine the future trajectory of Bitcoin. 

According to the expert, it appears the digital asset has been gathering momentum in a parallel channel. As a result, the $61,000 mark becomes the most significant support level, while the $72,400 mark becomes the most crucial resistance level.

Martinez affirms that Bitcoin might plummet toward the $56,200 and $51,600 range if it manages to surpass the aforementioned support level. However, should it break out from the $72,400 resistance zone, $79,000 and $86,000 are the next price targets to expect.

Bitcoin

Considering the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart, Martinez notes that $62,000 also proves to be an important support area for Bitcoin. If this level is lost, attention might move to the following significant demand region, which is situated around $51,500.

On the other hand, the likelihood of the bull run rekindling would be largely increased should there be a rise back above $66,250. This suggests a new wave of confidence and enthusiasm from market investors and players.

Martinez has also identified a notable shift in the accumulation trend score for Bitcoin lately. Specifically, the recent development marks the first time it has happened in six months, and it is now pegged at 0.27. This change suggests that BTC whales might be selling off their holdings rather than hoarding the crypto asset even more.

Interest From ETF Investors To Impact Price Substantially

Despite the negative performance of BTC lately, several analysts still believe the coin is headed for unprecedented heights. Crypto expert Willy Woo recently made a bold forecast, putting his price target at $650,000 at the bull market top and $91,000 at the bear market bottom.

Willy Woo expects the coin to top out at this level when ETF investors have completely deployed their capital based on asset manager recommendations. Furthermore, Woo stated that while these figures are quite cautious, Bitcoin will surpass the gold cap after ETFs have served their purpose. “Gold went on a 12-year bull run when its ETF was approved, now it is Bitcoin’s turn,” he added.

In the last day, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated between a low of $62,000 and a high of $66,000, ultimately concluding around $63,000. Its daily trading volume has decreased by 20%, indicating a declining intreest from traders.

Bitcoin

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Bitcoin Bullish Outlook: Analyst Predicts Near-Term Surge To $61,000

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be losing momentum after its bullish breakout to the $52,000 price mark, but some patterns indicate further optimistic activity may be ahead.

Bitcoin Price To Reach $61,000

On Thursday, Titan of Crypto, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst shared an interesting prediction for Bitcoin in the near future on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) sparking hope within the community.

Titan of Crypto pointed out in the post that Bitcoin is about to form a trend that he called a “Bull Flag formation.” As a result of this latest action, he has placed a near-term price target for BTC at the $61,000 threshold.

However, the expert noted that the crypto asset is presently experiencing a retest of the Tenkan indicator. According to Titan of Crypto, the price of Bitcoin encounters a pullback every time it reaches the $50,700 level.

Furthermore, the analyst asserted that there is a good chance that bull flag formation will materialize as long as the Tenkan retest remains steady. However, he anticipates a potential drop to $47,300 at the Kijun level, if a breakout toward the downside occurs.

The post read:

Bitcoin Bull flag formation: target at $61,000. BTC is retesting Tenkan at the moment. Each time it hits the $50,700 level it’s bought back. Look at the candle wicks. As long as Tenkan holds the potential bull flag formation is likely to play out. If it were to break to the downside, next support would be Kijun at currently approximately $47,300.

Titan of Crypto has identified another exciting piece of information regarding Bitcoin’s current stance in the market. In another X post, he claims that BTC has entered the “second phase of the bull run.”

The crypto expert stated that BTC’s “Monthly Williams %R” is approaching the “top dotted line.” He mentioned that when the development took place in the last cycle, Bitcoin was about to enter its second bull market phase.

Bitcoin, as of the time of writing, was trading at $50,986, indicating a 1.55% decline in the past 24 hours. Data from CoinMarketCap shows its market cap and trading volume are both down by 1.56% and 20.48%, respectively.

BTC Network Sees Significant Investment Inflow From Investors

With the recent rally, BTC appears to have garnered investors’ interest as the asset has experienced a rise in investment inflow. Willy Woo, a crypto analyst, reported that every day, the network receives around an average of $607 million in new investor demand.

Meanwhile, the overall number of new Bitcoins created daily by mining is just approximately $46 million. In the post, Woo also highlights the importance of the upcoming BTC supply halving, which is just 60 days away.

As it is widely known, Bitcoin halving is when the introduction of new BTCs into circulation is cut by half, which happens every four years after miners solve 210,000 blocks.

Bitcoin

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Top 5 Watershed Moments In BTC On-Chain Analysis’ History. Is Your Favorite In?

These five moments shaped Bitcoin On-Chain analysis. Down below you’ll find a basic 101 article that reviews the basic concepts of the trade. If you have any problem with the list, David Puell is to blame. He’s a full-time on-chain analyst and the creator of MVRV and Puell Multiple. He didn’t include the metrics he created on the list, which says a lot.

Related Reading | Lessons From Reason’s “The Fake Environmentalist Attack on Bitcoin” Mini-Doc

In the following article, there’s also something for on-chain analysis experts. A side game called: Did your favorite moment make it? 

1. ByteCoin invents cointime destroyed in 2011, the very first on-chain metric ever, still used today, and first metric to detect holding behavior in any financial asset.

— David Puell (@kenoshaking) February 17, 2022

Anyway, let’s get into it.

On-Chain Analysis Moment #1- ByteCoin Invents Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) AKA Coin Time Destroyed

Invented In 2011, according to Puell, CDD is “the very first on-chain metric ever, still used today, and first metric to detect holding behavior in any financial asset.” How does the metric detect holders, though? According to Glassnode Academy, “Coin Days Destroyed is a measure of economic activity which gives more weight to coins which haven’t been spent for a long time.”

So, the first eureka moment was to get the coin’s age into the equation. That way, the all-important holders also entered. Glassnode again:

“It is considered an important alternative to looking at total transaction volumes, which may not accurately represent economic activity if value was not stored for a meaningful time. Conversely, coins held in cold storage as a long term store of value are considered economically important when they are spent as it signals a notable change in long-term holder behaviour.”

BTC price chart for 02/17/2022 on Gemini | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
2. Moment #2 – Willy Woo and Chris Burniske Invent NVT Ratio 

This one emerged in 2017, and, according to Puell, it’s “where on-chain begins its Golden Age and became clearly an ecosystem of specialists”. It’s also “the first application of traditional economic/financial concepts to Bitcoin”. But, what’s the NVT Ratio specifically? Glassnode Academy responds:

“Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio describes the relationship between market cap and transfer volume. Per Willy Woo, its creator, NVT can be considered analogous to the PE (price to earnings) Ratio used in equity markets.”

Another way to look at it is, “NVT is that it is the inverse of monetary velocity, comparing two of Bitcoin’s primary value propositions”. Those are store of value Vs. settlement/payments network.

3. @nic__carter and @khannib invent realized cap in 2018, the single most important and robust metric in the field, and first verifiable discovery of the cost basis of any asset.

— David Puell (@kenoshaking) February 17, 2022

On-Chain Analysis Moment #3 – Nic Carter And Antoine Le Calvez Invent Realized Capitalization

Created In 2018, Puell thinks Realized Capitalization is “ the single most important and robust metric in the field, and first verifiable discovery of the cost basis of any asset”. But, what is it exactly? According to Glassnode Academy, Realized Capitalization also makes on-chain analysis look into the age of the coins.

“Realized capitalization (realized cap) is a variation of market capitalization that values each UTXO based on the price when it was last moved, as opposed to its current value. As such, it represents the realized value of all the coins in the network, as opposed to their market value.”

Ok, “realized cap reduces the impact of lost and long dormant coins, and weights coins according to their actual presence in the economy of a given chain”. How does it do it, though? Glassnode again:

“When a coin that was last moved at significantly cheaper prices is spent, it will re-value the coins to the current price, and thus increase realized cap by a corresponding amount. Similarly, if a coin is spent at a price lower than when it was last moved, it will re-value to a cheaper price and have a corresponding decrease on realized cap.”

Moment #4 – Dhruv Bansal Invents HODL Waves 

Created in 2018, HODL Waves is the “last major primer in on-chain analysis, first metric to segregate supply into different conceptual frameworks”. According to Purell, it’s also the “most comprehensive economic time analysis on Bitcoin to date”. Surprising no one, HODL Waves also looks at the age of the coins. According to Glassnode Academy:

“HODL Waves provide a macro view of the age of coins as a proportion of total coin supply. This provides a gauge on the balance between short term and long term holdings. It can also indicate where changes in this age distribution occur as the thickness of HODL wave bands change in response to dormant coins maturing, or when old coins are spent, resetting their age into the youngest category.”

5. @ErgoBTC releases the forensics of PlusToken in 2019, the grey swan that defined the market structure of Bitcoin for that year and first relevant nation-state attack on the asset.

— David Puell (@kenoshaking) February 17, 2022

On-Chain Analysis Moment #5 – Ergo Releases The Forensics Of PlusToken

This famous case happened in 2019. According to Purell, it’s “the grey swan that defined the market structure of Bitcoin for that year and first relevant nation-state attack on the asset.” For a report on the situation, we had to consult Crypto Briefing, who spoke to:

“Ergo, the lead researcher of the report, told Crypto Briefing in an email that the most striking feature of this scam was its size. “Billion-dollar scams are very rare,” they said. “We did not expect the previously reported 200K BTC volumes to be accurate, but they were.”

Related Reading | Bitcoin On-Chain Demands Suggests That The Market Has Reached Its Bottom

The Ergo team also explained why the laundry of the funds didn’t work that well. It was because they practiced “self-shuffling.” What’s that, you ask? Crypto Briefing again: 

“It refers to the “repeated UTXO splitting and merging in hundreds of transactions,” according to the report. This method was both easy to track and the most common way in which PlusToken funds were handled.”

This case wouldn’t be complete without a big institution’s involvement. This time, the suspect is Huobi:

“Huobi played a major role in off-loading these funds too, with nearly 250,000 addresses associated with the PlusToken funds. These addresses were reduced to two clusters which were identified following the incompetent privacy standards.”

Of course, those are just suppositions. When it comes to the giant Huobi, nothing’s been proven.

Feature Image by analogicus on Pixabay | Charts by TradingView

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Bitcoin On-Chain Demands Suggests That The Market Has Reached Its Bottom

Bitcoin on-chain analysis can be a good way to try to guess where the market is headed. The market tends to repeat itself with metrics looking the same before a bull or a bear rally, thus making this data a pretty good indicator of what’s to come. Analyst Willy Woo uses this same data to demonstrate a pattern that occurs before the bull rally, the criteria which are being met once again.

Start Of A Bull Run?

In a recent string of tweets, analyst Willy Woo presents data from on-chain analysis that points to the bitcoin dump having reached its bottom. According to him, “Price in relation to on-chain demand from both speculative and hodl category of investors are now both at peak oversold levels.” Woo points out that the last time that something like this had happened was when bitcoin reached its bottom following the COVID crash.

Price in relation to on-chain demand from both speculative and hodl category of investors are now both at peak oversold levels.

The last time this happened was October 2020. The time before that was at the bottom of the COVID crash.

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) February 2, 2022

The analyst further outlines the times where this has happened in the past. Going as far back as 2012, he points out the same had been the case in February of that year. What followed had been the memorable 2021-2013 bull run that saw bitcoin gain more popularity among investors.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Halving To Bring The Subsequent Crypto Frenzy

Fast forward to 2015 and the same had been the case in January of that year. This time, the on-chain metric spelled the bottom of the bear market that had begun previously in 2014, putting an end to the onslaught.

If Woo is right and the on-chain metric continues the way it has historically, then bitcoin may very well have reached the bottom, suggesting that this is the end of the downtrend. However, there is no telling if this is actually the case given that bitcoin had recorded back-to-back bull rallies in 2021.

Bitcoin On The Charts

Bitcoin has lost almost 50% from its all-time high of $69k which it hit in November of last year. This has however not affected the profits of the majority of holders. The digital asset remains one with the highest volume of holders that remain in profit after the market crash.

Related Reading | El Salvador Chivo Bitcoin Wallet Relaunch To Serve 4 Million Users

According to data from IntoTheBlock, 60% of all bitcoin holders are still in profit at current prices. It is important to note that the cryptocurrency was subject to massive sell-offs when investors panicked that the downtrend will continue. Most however have still kept their highly profitable status, with only 35% of all holders currently losing at market prices.

Bulls struggle to pull BTC up as bears take hold | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The majority are long-term holders and indicators point to investors still being very bullish on the digital asset despite the downtrend. With its current growth curve, it is expected that the cryptocurrency will see 1 billion holders in the next four years, making it a highly sought-after asset.

Featured image from Bitcoin News, chart from TradingView.com

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On-Chain Expert Predicts $162K Bitcoin Peak This Cycle

Bitcoin continues to beat expectations this year. Despite most investors speculating the bull market was already over, the digital asset has posted another rally that shows that the market might in fact still be in a bull cycle. The last two weekends have seen bitcoin prices adding at least $4,000 in the span of three days. Breaking what has been a slow and brutal downtrend cycle in the market for the last month.

Now, on-chain expert Willy Woo was on the podcast What Bitcoin Did to talk about the price of bitcoin and give his predictions regarding the price. Woo, for one, does not believe that the digital asset has peaked yet for 2021. Giving incredibly positive predictions for the asset for the rest of the year. With just five months left to go, there is still ample time left for various predictions to play out.

Related Reading | Bitcoin To Reach New All-Time Highs, Market Strategist

Willy Woo’s forecast shows that the expert still believes the bull run is still on, made evident by the recent price movements registered in the market. Digital currencies like bitcoin were showing gains of up to 10% in a day as prices rallied to push the coin value higher.

No Bear Market

Woo said on the podcast that there would be no full-blown bear market following the ending of the current bull cycle. This would mean that the price of bitcoin would most likely keep fluctuating, but probably never get to the points the market had following the last bull market in 2018.

Related Reading | Fast Money’s Brian Kelly Remains Bullish On Bitcoin, Here’s Why

Continuing on, Woo said there would be no repeat of the 2013 cycle imprint. Bitcoin would likely chart new courses, as even now, the digital asset has shown deviating patterns from other bull markets. As it seemed the bull market had drawn close after the May price crash. But the recent recoveries show that indeed, the digital asset is charting new courses going forward.

Following this, Woo believes the digital asset’s price would just wander around with supply and demand. And even halving events that lead to a price increase would have significantly less impact on the value of the asset.

Related Reading | Why Another Wave Up For Altcoins Is Probable According To BTC Dominance

Woo predicted bitcoin peaks would be less dramatic. Since price peaks of the digital asset have almost always been a short run-up, which leads to new all-time highs. Followed by sharp price crashes that usher the beginning of the next bear market. This would mean that bear phases would be shorter also, according to Woo. Lasting for fewer periods of time than previous bears.

Future Bitcoin Price Action

Woo’s price prediction for Bitcoin placed it at $162K. Going as far as saying that a $200,000 price mark is still possible for the digital asset this year. This puts Bitcoin on a tremendous run path to get to such a high prediction.

BTC price continues to trend around $39,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

But with factors like miners getting situated after the China exodus and mining difficulty going back up, the price of the digital asset could very well be on its way to another rally.

Woo also commented on the extended theory cycle for the coin, predicting that the asset will gain even more popularity after the current cycle ends. Commenting more on his price predictions, Woo said, “I have this model. In past cycles, it hit the upper bound before the bull market ended. I have this great situation where I don’t have to be exactly right cause it’s just a moving target. The upper band today is $162K. The current trajectory, $200K.”

Related Reading | 8 Green Candles: Here’s What Happened The Last Time In Bitcoin

Like with every other prediction, only time will tell if Woo’s prediction turns out to be the case. But this provides more insight into the fact that bitcoin maximalists still believe the pioneer cryptocurrency to be wildly undervalued even at its current price.

Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView.com

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Key Fundamental Data Suggests Bitcoin May Defy Bears

Last weekend, the Bitcoin price fell below the psychologically significant support level of $50,000. Furthermore, the 50 day moving average was breached to the downside and some popular technical indicators – such as the MACD – are flashing bearish warnings.

The confluence of downwards price action, bearish signals, and negative news flow (primarily; a rumored US regulatory crackdown and the Turkish ban & double exchange failures) suggests a bleak outlook for BTC… So, is Bitcoin doomed?

Recent Drop Brings Return Of Bitcoin Doomsday, But There’s Still Hope Left

Fortunately, there are reasons for hope. Whereas short-term technical and sentiment signals are decidedly bearish, certain fundamental data suggests that the great bull market, begun in late 2020, still has legs. For instance, the number of individuals who own Bitcoin – as measured by Glassnode’s Active Entities metrics – is still rising rapidly. Veteran crypto price analyst, Willy Woo, recently shared the following graph via Twitter:

bitcoin user adoption Rapid growth is clearly visible from August of 2020 and holding steady at present. | Source: Glassnode

“Anyone thinking we are going into a prolong[ed] price correction needs to know about the rate of new users coming into the network per day. We’re in the middle of a bull market with a hockey stick of new adoption, especially in the last 2 weeks,” Woo commented.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Price Breakdown: Bulls In Trouble As $50,000 Is Lost

Glassnode’s data is far more reliable than the naive method of counting total or active Bitcoin addresses to estimate user numbers – after all, any single user can create a practically unlimited number of addresses to inflate such measures. While their exact methods remain proprietary, Glassnode attempts to map multiple addresses to individual users, and so count only the latter.

Drivers Of User Adoption In Cryptocurrency

There are countless factors driving user adoption, and one could easily point to the increased visibility of Bitcoin due to its new all-time high or endorsements from influential business leaders, such as Elon Musk and Michael Saylor. Increasing institutional adoption, with such big financial players as MasterCard and BlackRock getting involved, certainly doesn’t hurt the coin’s credibility in the popular mind either.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Loses Important Lifeline That Got Bulls Blood Pumping

In the broader context, it’s likely that the deteriorating value of fiat plays a major role in Bitcoin user adoption. Global inflationary expectations – and indeed, observations – remain high. Central banks around the world printed unprecedented amounts of new fiat to offset the economic damage of governmental lockdown policies.

With the cost of goods and services up and largely expected to go higher, widespread demand for deflationary monetary alternatives like Bitcoin makes perfect sense. This is especially true in the current context of under-performance by traditional hard money options, like gold and silver.

bitcoin btcusd

Bitcoin price rises as more user adopt the technology | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

So long as Bitcoin adoption by new users is increasing, the prospect of a prolonged bear market seems unlikely. If adoption has been growing throughout the bull trend, as Glassnode’s data indicates, it seems that higher prices are not deterring new entrants to the market.

With Bitcoin now trading “at a discount” compared to its recent all-time high around $64,500, it’s likely that sufficient demand, perhaps spurred by bargain-hunting, remains in the market to provide price support.

Featured image from Pixabay, Chart from TradingView.com