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Tug Of War Between Bulls And Bears, Will Bitcoin Price Retest $19,000?

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to struggle against Tether (USDT) as bulls and bears are caught in a tug of war regarding where Bitcoin price should be headed as we approach the monthly close. Bitcoin’s (BTC) price showed so much steam, but it seems like it was just a bull trap for many investors and traders. (Data from Binance)

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis On The Weekly Chart 

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has shown so much strength trying to hold above $19,500 in the past few days, with the price bouncing immediately as it drops into the sub $19,800 on several occasions.

The price of BTC has continued to show strength, trying to break above $20,500 despite being rejected; the BTC price needs to break this area acting as resistance for bulls to have the chance of pushing the price higher to a region of $22,000.

BTC is currently trading below its resistance, stopping the price from trending higher; if BTC cannot break past this resistance of $20,800, we could see the price revisiting the support region at $19,000, acting as a demand zone for most investors.

Weekly resistance for the price of BTC – $20,800.

Weekly support for the price of BTC – $19,000.

Price Analysis Of BTC On The Daily (1D) Chart
Daily BTC Price Chart | Source: BTCUSDT On Tradingview.com

The price of BTC found its daily low at $19,500; as the price bounced off from that region, BTC’s price has remained strong, trading above $19,000, not allowing bears to take the price lower. 

Despite being rejected recently from the $20,500 mark, BTC price has shown great bullish strength, not retesting the support region of $19,000 as this would favor bears.

The price of BTC is trading at $20,100 below the daily 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The 50 and 200 EMA correspond to prices of $22,200 and $30,000, respectively, acting as resistances for the price of BTC to trend higher. If the BTC price breaks and holds above the $22,200 corresponding to the 50 EMA, we could see the price trending higher to $23,000.

If BTC’s price fails to break above its resistances, then prices would find more momentum at its support of $19,000 or even lower.

Daily (1D) resistance for the BTC price – $22,200, $30,000.

Daily (1D) support for the BTC price – $19,000.

Price Analysis Of BTC On The Four-Hourly (4H) Chart
Four-Hourly BTC Price Chart | Source: BTCUSDT On Tradingview.com

The price of BTC on the 4H chart has continued to look bearish, trying to hold above the support area at $19,000. BTC price currently trades below the 50 EMA on the 4H chart, with more sellers willing to push the price lower.

After forming a bullish divergence on the 4H chart as the price was oversold, the BTC price bounced from $19,500 to $20,000, but the price was unable to break above the 50 EMA, acting as resistance for the BTC price; the 50 EMA price corresponds to the support at $20,600.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC on the 4H chart is below 50, indicating less buy order volume for the BTC price.

BTC’s monthly close would give us a broader view of the next movement of Bitcoin price and where the market is headed.

Four-Hourly (4H) resistance for the BTC price – $20,600.

Four-Hourly (4H) support for the BTC price – $19,000.

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Market Sentiment Shoots Up As Bitcoin Eyes $25,000

The crypto market sentiment had taken a beating when the price of bitcoin fell to a new cycle low of $17,600. With this, investor sentiment had plummeted to new yearly lows. But slowly, the market sentiment had recovered and made its way out of the extreme fear territory. That is until now when the market sentiment has recorded an enormous push upward off the back of another market rally.

Sentiment Turning Green

The crypto market sentiment has been on an uptrend since the recovery started back in July. When the price of bitcoin first hit $24,000 for the first time since the market trend, the market sentiment had quickly moved out of the extreme fear territory.

Despite the recovery in the market, the market sentiment was still mainly in the red, and the score on the Fear & Greed Index remained low. However, the Wednesday market recovery saw one of the largest jumps for the year 2022. After trending around 31 on the index for most of Wednesday, the score had seen a sharp upward reversal to 41.

This level puts the market sentiment the closest to greed that it has ever been since the crash. It is also a sharp contrast to the score for last week, as well as the overall score for the month of July, which put the market at a 16, deep in extreme fear.

The reversal also shows that investors are beginning to return to the market. Accumulation trends are usually started and strengthened during times such as this, contributing to the uptick in cryptocurrency prices all across the space.

BTC recovers above $24,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin Wants $25,000

Bitcoin’s recovery has been leading it towards one of the most coveted positions in the current market. The $25,000 mark is an important technical level because it was a position which high support that has now turned to a significant resistance point. As such, beating this level is important for bitcoin bulls going forward. 

The recent run-up had actually seen bitcoin come dangerously close to reaching $25,000, but the resistance just below it was enough to beat back the bulls. This saw a retracement of about $200 from this point as the bulls continued to regroup.

Bitcoin is still looking incredibly strong on the 4-hour chart, suggesting that there would be another test of $25,000. The accumulation trend going on has been enough to provide good support and bounce-off point for the digital asset, so this retest will likely see bitcoin break $25,000. Although holding the position is another story.

Bitcoin is now trending at $24,500 at the time of this writing. Currently, its price is up 6.29% in the last 24 hours and has remained green for the last two daily closes. A green close for Thursday will signal a top-off point of $28,000.

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Billionaire Mike Novogratz Says Bitcoin At $30,000 Is Unlikely

Bitcoin price has been a topic of debate since the digital asset first made its entry into the mainstream over a decade ago. With its continued growth, a lot of people have come forward to proffer their predictions for the price of the cryptocurrency both in the long and the short term. One of those is billionaire Mike Novogratz. However, despite being usually bullish on the price of bitcoin, Novogratz does not seem to expect much in the short term.

Bitcoin Unlikely To Reach $30,000

Currently, the price of bitcoin is bouncing between the $23,000 and $24,000 level. This has seen a lot of speculation as regards what will happen when the digital asset is able to break out of this rut finally. For many, the recent recovery has led them to believe that there will definitely be a run-up back to $30,000, where the price had fallen from. However, not everyone seems to share this bullish short-term sentiment, and Novogratz is one of those.

The CEO of Galaxy Digital has been one of the many proponents of bitcoin, investing in the asset both on a personal and professional level. However, with bitcoin’s current trend, Novogratz does not expect a recovery. Mainly, he does not expect the asset to see $30,000.

BTC trending above $23,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Novogratz explained during an interview with Bloomberg that he fully expected the price of the digital asset to continue to trend between $20,000 to $22,000, not believing that a break above $30,000 is possible with the recent run-up. “I’d quite frankly be happy if we’re in a $20,000 – $22,000 or $20,000 – $30,000 range for a while, with the next move breaking up,” he added.

Factors Dragging Down Bitcoin

There are a number of things that affects the cryptocurrency market and, by extension, the price of bitcoin. Recently, the news of the United States going into a recession has been the catalyst for the recovery trend, but Novogratz believes that the performance of bitcoin continues to be greatly tied to decisions by the government.

The Fed had once again increased interest rates which had affected the financial markets. With the current situation, any decision from the Fed has an impact on the digital asset due to its close correlation with the macro markets at the moment. But Novogratz believes that the Fed will stop raising rates, which is expected to have a positive impact on financial markets.

Despite not believing that the price of Bitcoin cannot touch $30,000 during this run-up, it has not changed the billionaire’s stance on bitcoin. He has previously stated that the price of the digital asset will grow to $500,000. His company also remains committed to its bitcoin strategy, holding a total of 16,402 BTC, making it the public company with the third-largest bitcoin holding in the world.

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Another Red Daily Close Puts Bitcoin Below $23,000, Is Recovery Expected?

Bitcoin has seen another red daily close after a tremendous rally from last week. This has now wiped off most of the gains made during this time period and has left the digital asset struggling below $23,000 once more. The momentum has quickly died down as the news of the recession settled in. Its viability as an inflation hedge is once more called into question given its performance so far this year.

Is Bitcoin Still A Good Bet?

Bitcoin being an inflation hedge, has been one of the selling points for the digital asset. This is due to its performance on a year-over-year basis compared to other financial markets over similar time frames. Since these financial markets, such as the stock market, have been unable to keep up with the high inflation rate, investors had naturally flocked to bitcoin as yearly returns trumped the inflation percentages.

That is, until a bear market where bitcoin’s performance as an inflation hedge starts to shake. An example is the bear market that is currently being experienced in the market. This decline has seen the digital asset lose about 44% of its value during this time and inflation continues to hit 40-year highs. But on a month-to-month basis, bitcoin has outperformed prominent markets such as the S&P, giving credence to its ability to give reasonable returns even during a bear market.

BTC sees another red daily close | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin has been up more than 20% in the last month, while the S&P is up only 8%. But on a yearly basis, the market is down significantly less than bitcoin at 5.8%. So while bitcoin has shown to be a good bet when it comes to hedging against inflation, it remains a choice for investors with a large risk appetite.

Market Sentiment Points To Recovery

The crypto market crash back in June had sent the market sentiment deep into the extreme fear territory. This would persist for a couple of weeks as the prices of cryptocurrencies struggled to recover their lost value. However, it would quickly change when bitcoin saw a swift recovery in its price back in July.

Bitcoin had made it back above $24,000 once more, and this had sparked faith in the hearts of investors once more. Sentiment had recovered along with the price and towards the end of the month had grown to a high score just below 30 on the Fear & Greed Index. This score still put it in the fear territory but was a remarkable recovery in sentiment nonetheless.

Now, even with the decline, data shows that investors are still maintaining positive sentiment towards digital assets such as bitcoin. One thing that positive sentiment drives are accumulation, and accumulation leads to recovery. Bitcoin just needs to hold above the $22,700 support and close with a higher price for a bounce back above $23,000.

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Bitcoin Enters August With Losses, Has It Set The Tone For The Month?

Bitcoin has entered into a new month, but its price has not been doing as well as expected. The end of July had indeed come with good tidings as the bitcoin price had broken above $24,000. However, maintaining this point has been a harder task. As the market welcomes the new month of August, bitcoin has not had the best of starts to the new month, entering it with a red daily close.

Bitcoin Going For The Win?

Bitcoin’s recovery over the last week has been propelled forward by different things. The most recent one was the announcement that the United States was now in a recession after recording two consecutive negative GDP growth, causing individuals to find where to park their wealth. Bitcoin naturally provided the perfect hedge for people who were looking to escape the growing inflation, triggering a massive accumulation trend.

Related Reading | Impressive Rally Puts Bitcoin Above $24,000, But Is $28,000 Still Possible?

It had seen the price of bitcoin quickly break multiple important technical levels. The 26th and 27th had been really good days for bitcoin after the digital asset closed both days in the green. But that will quickly change in the next couple of days.

With the new month, bitcoin has now seen its 3rd consecutive daily red close. Now, this is not alarming in any way, given that the digital asset is in a bear market, but it does speak to the performance of the digital asset in the coming days.

BTC falls to mid-$23,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

An example is that if there is no immediate recovery, the decline that will follow will see the cryptocurrency’s price plunge more than it actually gained in its recent recovery. What this means is that a failure to hold this bullish rally could set bitcoin back to the $20,000 love.

Obviously, bitcoin has previously seen significant support at this level and continues to see mounting support at the same point, but it makes no difference if there is not enough buying pressure on the market. Also, as investors rush to take profits over the recent recovery, the selling pressure may overwhelm traders and turn their focus to shorting the market.

Related Reading | New Milestone May Be The Kick Dogecoin Needs To Break $0.1

The digital asset has already lost more than $2,000 over the last two days. It has also declined below its 50-day moving average once more, the same technical level that had been one of the indicators of the bear trend in previous markets. 

For bitcoin to establish a bullish trend, it must break above $24,800 and hold this level. Otherwise, there is likely to be a rapid decline in price over the next couple of days.

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Bitcoin Bounces Off Consolidation Range, What Lies In Store?

Bitcoin has been on a steady increase over the last two weeks. It has not been on the uptrend for all of this time, but the majority of the time, the digital asset has maintained this upward trajectory. This has seen it touch above $24,000 at one point after bouncing off its strong consolidation point. Now, as the digital asset trails $23,000, a couple of technical levels have begun to form beneath it.

Bitcoin Begins To Form Support

Bitcoin has broken above $23,000 once more, and support has begun to form. After previously losing its footing and falling to $21,000, the digital asset had seen support pushed down to $19,000, but this would change soon after. As bitcoin continues its uptrend, it is now looking at support at $21,000, much stronger than previously established.

Related Reading | Bullish Sentiment Spills Over To Institutional Investors As Ethereum Inflows Balloons

However, for the digital asset to continue on this bull rally, it would need to break some important technical levels. The first would be the $25,000 range, where the most resistance is currently being mounted. A widespread accumulation trend would be the only likely fuel to break through this level. After which, the nearest resistance would be formed at $28,000 due to it being the lowest point for the 2021 cycle.

BTC continues recovery trend | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

On the other side of this, the digital asset still has some potential to fall back down. This would put it in the direct path of the $21,000 support, but this is unlikely to hold for the long term. The next significant support level would fall to $19,700, which represents the peak of the 2018 bull cycle. Hence, the support put up here would be strengthened compared to that at $19,000. But if this fails to hold, $17,600 would present to be the next important level due to being the current cycle low.

Related Reading | Ripple (XRP) Is Up 190% From Cycle Low, But Will It Ever Reach $3?

For now, as bitcoin climbs up, it is still expected to meet resistance at $24,000, which was the point it failed to beat last week. This makes it the most immediate threat for bulls in the quest to retake $30,000. This point determines if bitcoin would be able to break above the 50-day moving average, which would determine a bearish or bullish trend for the short term.

Sell-offs remain the major thing that is pulling back the value of bitcoin, though. While the short term is beginning to turn in favor of buy, the long-term outlook still poses a sell for investors. These sell-offs, which are yet to reach a fatigue point, are most likely the culprit behind bitcoin’s inability to breach $24,000 successfully.

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More Than 57,000 Traders Liquidated As Bitcoin Declines Below $22,000

 

The price of bitcoin has once again fallen below $22,000 once more. As expected, it has come with its own consequences for those in the crypto market. Most prominent have been in the liquidations, which have ballooned in the last 24 hours. With the most recent crash, more than 57,000 traders have seen their positions liquidated.

Bitcoin Dip Triggers $151 Million Liquidations

Over the last 24 hours, more than 57,000 traders have been liquidated in the crypto market. This has led to a total of $151 million in assets liquidated over the last day. The most prominent of these has been the Ethereum liquidations. 

Ethereum, which had taken the lead during the market recovery and rallied higher than $1,600, had led the short liquidations and now, continues to lead in terms of long liquidations. Ethereum liquidations alone have crossed $70 million in the last 24 hours and $20 million in the last 12 hours. 

Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin Price At Clear Risk of Sharp Drop, Indicators Turn Red

Others include bitcoin, which has only seen half the volume of liquidations compared to Ethereum. In total, there have been more than $30 million in bitcoin liquidations in the past day, accounting for 1.38K BTC. This makes it the second-largest liquidation for a digital asset in the last day. The majority of liquidations have been from long traders at 63.96%. 

BTC price falls below $22,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
FOMC Looms Over Market

The recovery that had been rocking bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has been stopped dead in its tracks as the week opened. There are various factors behind this decline such as large corporations announcing earnings and showing that they had dumped a lot of bitcoin.

Related Reading | TA: Ethereum Stuck In Key Range, Why $1,480 Is The Key

Additionally, the FOMC is starting on Tuesday, and the announcement is expected to be made on Wednesday. So basically, while this is turning out to be a big week for the financial market, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the market would see any good price action.

Bitcoin had also not been able to beat its 200-week moving average, and the resistance faced at this point has brought the price to a lower support point. This has marked a bearish trend for bitcoin, meaning that the digital asset will likely test $20,000 in the coming days.

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Funding Rates Return To Neutral Following Bitcoin Relief Rally

Bitcoin funding rates had seen a very negative month between mid-June and mid-July. The funding rates, which had previously remained muted, quickly declined below neutral and proceeded to spend the next one month on this level. However, there is a significant change as last week saw funding rates return to neutral.

Funding Rate Recovers On Exchanges

The bitcoin funding rates had been touching low points as the price of the digital asset struggled. This was concerning given that funding rates were expected to improve as the digital asset began to basically trade at what was described as a “discount.” This would not be farther from the truth, as funding rates fell to their lowest points this June. It indicated that perp traders were still bearish on the cryptocurrency and refrained from moving in.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Dominance Dives As Ethereum Takes Up More Space

Last week would come with good news as funding rates returned to neutral and stayed there. Binance and Bybit crypto exchanges both recorded funding rate levels of 0.01%. The return to neutral came as the price of bitcoin started a relief rally that saw it break above $23,000.

Funding rates return to neutral | Source: Arcane Research 

Open interest had also followed the same route, although it retraced during the week when the price fell once more. It showed that there is still a lot of leveraging going on in the market since the bitcoin open interest was not much different from what was recorded the prior week, even with the decline.

Bitcoin Traders Turning Bullish

The recovery of bitcoin funding rates to a neutral level is a testament to the returning positive sentiment among traders and investors. It definitely does not signal that the market has returned to its previously bullish phase, but it is an indication that investors are now looking favorably at the bitcoin and crypto market at large.

BTC retraces downwards | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

It tracks along with the Fear & Greed index which has now moved out of the ‘Extreme Fear’ territory for the first time in almost three months. It saw an incredible bounce from last week’s sentiment, with a score of 18 putting it in extreme fear. Although the market is still fearful, the recovery is seeing faith return to the market. It is also evidenced in the buying pressure that has been building this week. 

Related Reading | Domino Effect On Stablecoins Leads To Reversal Of Growth Trend

The correlation of the funding rates with the price of bitcoin can either be good or bad from here on out, depending on how well the cryptocurrency performs in the market. If it continues its recovery trend, then funding rates may return above neutral for the first time in more than two months.

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Bitcoin Miner Revenues Continue To Plunge, But Will The Rally Change This?

Bitcoin miner revenues have been plummeting ever since the price of BTC peaked back in November. This has put miners in a tight spot, causing a good number of them to sell their BTC holdings in order to keep financing their operations. The same was the case for last week, where miner revenues were once again in the red. However, as the tide begins to change in the crypto market, there may be light at the end of the tunnel for miners.

Miner Revenues Down 4%

For the past month, daily miner revenues have been trending above $18 million but continued recording losses with each passing week. Last week would put an end to this trend when miner revenue fell once again, this time by 4.03%, causing average daily revenues to drop below $18 million. Reports show that miners saw an average of $17.7 million in revenues, more than 60% down from its peak back in November.

Related Reading | Ethereum Classic (ETC) Reclaims $3 Billion Market Cap, More Upside To Follow?

What followed this was a sell-off from bitcoin miners across the space. As the profitability plummeted, more BTC had to be offloaded by miners to provide cash flow for their operations. In June alone, miners had sold off 25% of their holdings, and with the prices remaining low, reports for July are expected to show even higher sales for the month of July.

For the last two months, bitcoin miners have been selling more BTC than they were producing. For the month of May, they had sold more than 100% of the BTC produced. This number had jumped 400% in June when public miners sold approximately 14,600 BTC when they had only produced a total of 3,900 BTC, accounting for 25% of all of their holdings.

BTC drops to $22,700 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Surprisingly, fees per day were up 12.61% last week, which brought the percentage of revenue gotten from fees to 2.59%, a 0.38% increase from the prior week.

Will The Bitcoin Rally Help?

The recent rally in the market has seen the price of bitcoin reclaim key technical levels and reach one-month highs. The digital asset had even briefly touched above $24,000 before trending back down, and the first half of the week had been green for the digital asset.

Related Reading | Why Bitcoin Must Beat $25,500 To Establish A Bull Rally

Since the profitability of bitcoin mining is directly tied to the price of the digital asset, it is safe to assume that there may be some uptick in miner revenues for this week. Given that price was trending around $19,000 for most of last week, an increase above $22,000 will see public bitcoin miners realize more revenue from their mining operations.

However, given that the price had not recovered by a wide margin, the rise in daily miner revenue is expected to remain under double-digits. It is also important to note that there is more demand for block space, leading to higher transaction fees on the network, contributing more to the daily miner revenues.

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Why Bitcoin Must Beat $25,500 To Establish A Bull Rally

Bitcoin has recovered above $23,000 off the back of a rally that had started during the last leg of the weekend. This recovery has brought more money into the market, which has helped push the price even further. As bitcoin trends at $23,000, there is significant resistance mounting up ahead, presenting various important technical levels.

Bitcoin Must Beat $25,500

Even though bitcoin is making its way towards $24,000 in a tremendous bull trend, there are still some technical levels that the digital asset must beat in order to fully establish its arrival in a bull market. An example was the resistance that mounted at $22,000, but the fight was far from over.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Dominance Dives As Ethereum Takes Up More Space

As support had begun to build up at this previously hard-to-beat resistance level, the bears had moved their defense position further. Presently, bitcoin faces the most opposition when it inevitably makes its break above $25,000. The resistance at $25,500 is so prominent that any sign of sell-offs will turn the tide in favor of the bears.

An even more important point is at $28,000. This is because the price point was a yearly low level in 2021. As such, it has become a level to hold for both bulls and bears, depending on what direction they wish to drag the cryptocurrency in.

BTC recovers close to $24,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

So even though bitcoin had seen some trouble breaking out of the consolidation range high of $23,000, it was not the hardest level to beat for the asset. This means that bitcoin’s hold on its current price level remains shaky at best.

If it is unable to hold and falls back down below $22,000, there is every possibility that its price will fall to $19,000, which is where the next significant support levels lie. It is also the support level that propped up its price through the rough early June market.

Related Reading | The Worst May Be Over As Crypto Market Adds More Than $100 Billion

The market looks promising for the digital asset due to its recent bullish breakout. It is expected that this may lead to more shorts offside in the market and would likely propel the digital asset forward. A break toward $30,000 is unlikely at this point but if bitcoin is able to successfully beat the $25,500 resistance, there is a large chance that the price will see $30,000 before starting back down once more.

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Bitcoin Daily Exchange Net Flows Shows Sell-Offs Have Not Subsided

Bitcoin daily exchange net flows have been erratic for the last month, to say the least. This is due to the numerous swings between dumping and stacking being done by investors in the space, all of which have affected the price of the digital asset in their own way. However, the net flows have begun to find a balance and it is unfortunately not a positive one.

Outflows Start To Dominate

The inflows and outflows for the last day have not been alarming in a way but the fact that it continues to skew towards inflows which us a testament to the sell-offs that have rocked the place. The data from Glassnode which shows the net flows between the two shows that more BTC was moving into centralized exchanges than those going out of them. A total of $729.7 million BTC were moved out of exchanges in the last day, while inflows came out to $766.9 million. This led to a net positive flow of $37.2 million.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Drops Below $22,000, Is Peter Brandt’s Analysis Still In Play?

This comes as no surprise given that more investors are trying to get out of the digital asset to avoid incurring more losses. Even with the accumulation trend that has been recorded across large investors, it is still not enough to upset the amount of BTC being moved to centralized exchanges to be sold.

This has negatively impacted the price of bitcoin given that the digital asset had declined below $20,000 once more. The fact that there is more USDT leaving exchanges than that coming in shows that investors are moving to stablecoins for safety. As such, they are not buying cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.

BTC loses footing above $20,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin Investors Try To Catch Up

Even though the price of bitcoin is still declining, the interest from investors, especially smaller ones, has not waned. This renewed interest is seen in the number of addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC. After falling during the price crash, the number has now recovered and has reached a new all-time high of 3,706,019 addresses with more than 0.1 BTC on their balance.

Related Reading | Wall Street Investors Expect Bitcoin To Hit $10,000, Is This Possible?

Now, this has not affected the price much in any way given these smaller investors have little control over the market. However, it speaks volumes about how investors are viewing the current market climate, which to many has become an opportunity to buy coins at a discount.

Nevertheless, the digital asset continues to maintain bearish momentum. More addresses are being triggered as the price decline continues. Bitcoin is trending at $19,670 at the time of this writing and has now fallen below its $400 billion market cap.

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Wall Street Investors Expect Bitcoin To Hit $10,000, Is This Possible?

The decline of bitcoin over the last several weeks has raised concerns among investors in the space. The digital asset which had peaked at $69,000 had declined as low as $17,600 and continues to struggle to hold $20,000, dragging investor sentiment down with it. This same sentiment was shared by a polled group of Wall Street investors regarding how they viewed the digital asset. Mostly, investors do not see any bullish movement in the near future.

Majority Says Bitcoin Is Going Down

Out of the 950 respondents that were surveyed by MLIV Pulse, the majority revealed that they were not expecting any significant recovery for bitcoin. The digital asset is currently trading above $20,000 but these investors believe that it will likely crash further. A total of 60% of all respondents said they expected the price of bitcoin to actually decline to $10,000. Furthermore, they believe that this price point is more likely compared to the digital asset’s price hitting $30,000.

Related Reading | Decline In Bitcoin Miner Revenues Suggests More Sell-Offs May Follow

This same school of thought has been echoed by many in the space, especially on social media. However, it was not the only sentiment that was present in the investors surveyed. Despite the majority feeling the digital asset would succumb further to the bear market, there were still some who believed that there are more positive things coming.

The remaining 40% of the survey pool gave their more bullish predictions. This section of the pool admitted that they expected the price of bitcoin to actually hit $30,000 before it will hit $10,000. Interestingly, the large majority of investors with positive reviews of the cryptocurrency were the more seasoned investors. 

BTC trading at $20,546 | Source: BTUCSD on TradingView.com

These professional investors were more likely to believe that cryptocurrencies are the future and even when they were not investors and remained skeptical, they were more open-minded towards cryptocurrencies compared to their less experienced counterparts.

Is $10,000 Possible?

Given how the previous bitcoin bear markets have gone, it is no surprise to see that the majority of investors actually expect the price of the digital asset to fall to $10,000 before it makes any major recovery. A historical look shows that bitcoin has consistently lost more than 80% of its all-time high value in every bear market and if it continues to follow this trend, then $10,000 remains a likely level to hit.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Drops Below $22,000, Is Peter Brandt’s Analysis Still In Play?

However, it is important to note that bitcoin has deviated severally from ‘established’ trends that have become associated with it. One is the multiple bull rallies of 2021, the likes of which have never been seen before. It had brought more interest to the space and in turn, brought more money which is more likely to hold up the price.

Another thing is that the price of the digital asset has fallen below its previous cycle high, although this is more bearish than bullish for the future of the digital asset. Nevertheless, it’s a sign of the continued deviations and there remains a possibility that not losing 80% of its all-time high value is another deviation bitcoin might make.

Featured image from Forbes, charts from TradingView.com

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Bullish: Bitcoin Marks First Green Weekly Close After Two Months In The Red

Bitcoin has been marking multiple weeks of consecutive red closes. This has been the case for the last two months when the leading cryptocurrency had seen 9 consecutive weeks of red closes. Unsurprisingly, this had pained a very bearish image for the digital asset. However, it seems the tide has begun to turn as bitcoin has now ended its streak. A break above $30,000 in the early hours of Monday put BTC in its first weekly close in more than two months.

Better Days Ahead For Bitcoin?

While the price of bitcoin has been in recovery, it does not exactly erase more than two months of bearish trends. This first green in a long line of reds does not automatically trigger a bull trend for the digital asset. What it does, however, is show that investor sentiment is starting to turn for the better. No doubt the sellers will continue to dominate the market for the better part of the next week but an uptick in positive inflows is expected from here.

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Bitcoin has not had a green weekly close since the month of March. Even before then, sentiment had turned for the worse. This continues into the new week as the Fear & Greed Index is currently sitting at 13, putting it in extreme fear. BTC’s rise above $32,000 last week had worked to help ease the fear in the market but negative sentiment had returned once more with the crash below $29,000.

BTC settles above $31,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

What is expected from here on out is shaky movements for BTC. The digital asset needs to secure a position above $35,000 for it to be considered back on another bull trend. However, multiple significant resistance points lie ahead for the cryptocurrency.

What Exchange Inflows Say

Bitcoin exchange inflows mirror the positive sentiment that is returning to the market. Data from Glassnode shows that for the last day, there have been $6.6 billion in BTC moving into exchanges while $7.9 billion has been moved out. This works out to a negative net flow of -$1.3 billion, signaling that more investors are moving towards accumulation instead of outright sell-offs.

🚨 Weekly On-Chain Exchange Flow 🚨#Bitcoin $BTC➡ $6.6B in⬅ $7.9B out📉 Net flow: -$1.3B#Ethereum $ETH➡ $3.3B in⬅ $3.2B out📈 Net flow: +$108.6M#Tether (ERC20) $USDT➡ $3.4B in⬅ $4.2B out📉 Net flow: -$781.3Mhttps://t.co/dk2HbGwhVw

— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) June 6, 2022

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Bitcoin remains a long way off from its all-time high and indicators point to recovery to that ATH value being years away. Nevertheless, for the short-term, the price of bitcoin is poised to hold up against bears. Since the majority of BTC investors are still in profit, it is not expected that the sell-offs will die off anytime soon though. But it is nearing an exhaustion point.

Featured image from The Cryptonomist, chart from TradingView.com

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Why The Latest Correction Is Good For Bitcoin

Bitcoin has finally corrected downwards after being on a bull rally for the better part of this week. This is an expected development for a digital asset that has grown so much in such a short time. However, while some in the market lament this downtrend, it is important to look at what a correction like this might mean for the digital asset. Because it may do more good than harm in times like these.

Is This Correction Bad?

For any upward recovery, there is bound to be a correction. This can be either good or bad depending on the circumstances surrounding the market movements. This time around, bitcoin has begun a recovery trend after making significant gains earlier this week. Now, for the present market, this looks to be more of a good thing for the digital asset given where the price has landed.

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Bitcoin had been able to hit as high as north of $47,000 during its last rally. This had helped to cement the cryptocurrency’s place in the bull trend. However, after building up so much momentum, there was bound to be a drawback and the result of that has been a declining value.

These kinds of corrections during bull rallies are always good. This is because they allow overbought indicators the change to reset their values to become good enough once more for investors. Paving the way for even more money to come into the market in the wake of the correction. 

BTC support level at $45K | Source: TradingView.com

Naturally, there remains a support zone that the digital asset may not fall below, hence it becomes a problem for the asset. As long as bitcoin is able to hold above $45,000, then the power still firmly rests in the hands of bulls meaning that the cryptocurrency is likely to continue in its current bullish path. If this is the case, then bitcoin may very well see a big bounce coming. Most likely during the weekend when there is less liquidity in the market.

Bitcoin Needs To Hold

In the short term, bitcoin has no problems registering a bullish trend. The main pain point now remains to solidify this position over the long term and in order to do this, the digital asset has to beat the 100-day simple moving average. It is already trading above this but it remains a small margin. If the bottom of this correction can stop above $45,600, then this BTC will revert to a bullish trend over the long term.

Related Reading | Possible Timelines For Bitcoin To Hit $100k: Why CEOs See Bullish Signs

It remains a buyer’s market although how long this last will be determined by the performance over the next week. A proper break above $47,000 will once again set the stage for another massive rally. However, $48,000 will be a hard-fought battle given low momentum.

BTC trading above $45,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from FXComfort, chart from TradingView.com

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Here’s The Biggest Hindrance To Bitcoin Touching Above $50,000

Bitcoin had successfully flipped the $47,000 level this week. A welcome change after the digital asset had spent a long stretch of time plagued by low momentum. It officially signaled a break out of the consolidation of the past two-and-a-half months. Now the real work begins as bears have begun mounting significant resistance to keep the cryptocurrency from breaking above $50,000.

The Point To Beat

Although Bitcoin continues to hold above $47,000, there is still a lot of opposition to the digital asset in this region. $47,500 remains a technical level that has shown itself throughout various rallies in history. This time around, bears are camping at this technical level, making it a significant resistance to point to beat. Otherwise, the goal of $50,000 will remain unrealized.

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If the digital asset is able to successfully beat this point and form support above it, then there will be not much opposition in the race to $50,000 as the next important point will lie above this level. A push past $50,000 would set the cryptocurrency on another path towards $53,000. This time around, solidifying BTC’s campaign towards a new all-time high.

$47,500 is now the point to beat | Source: Arcane Research

Nevertheless, Bitcoin has been unable to break through as its single attempt to do so has been met with resistance that has beaten it back down towards the low $47,000s. BTC continues to hold strong at this point though.

Bitcoin Holding Up Well

Even though bitcoin had taken a beat-down after testing the $47,500 resistance point, it has quickly found its footing. One important thing to note is where the digital asset looks to have formed an important support level.

BTC fails to beat $47,500 resistance level | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Arcane Research notes that BTC looks to have flipped $45,000, which was the resistance to beat in the early innings of the rally, into a support level. This means a slide below $47,000 may see the digital asset fall below $46,000 but will most likely find significant support at this $45K level. Although a fall below this will quickly send BTC back to the low $42,000s given it is more akin to a sliding scale.

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Bitcoin is now comfortably trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving average, cementing both a short and long-term bullish outlook for the asset. It continues to hold firm as it is trading at $47,300 at the time of this writing.

Featured image from Coingape, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com

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The Bullish Scenario That Puts Bitcoin At $165K Before $22K

Bitcoin is still quite bullish over the long term despite all of the bearish short-term trends being recorded recently. It is still one of the most promising investment options in the space with growth speculated to skyrocket in the next five years. Through all of the recent downtrend, there have been widespread concerns that the cryptocurrency has officially entered another stretched-out bear market.

Not everyone subscribes to this school of thought, however. The current bearish climate does nothing to deter bulls as there are still various scenarios that put bitcoin in another bull trend. The one discussed in this article sees the digital asset growing at least another 300% before the expected decline to the $20K level.

Bitcoin At $165K

The argument that bitcoin is headed for the $20K range is stronger now more than ever following another decline below $40K. There is still significant support for the asset at the $36k-$38k level but with the sell-offs and bears working overtime to pull down the price, expectations have skewed largely in favor of seeing bitcoin touch below $30,000 in the near term.

Related Reading | Why Ethereum May Retest The $2,500 Support Level

For a crypto analyst only identified as DeFeye, going by the 200 Week SMA trend historically, bitcoin has still not found the top. Previously, bitcoin has lost about 85% of its total all-time high value following the bull market. However, a drop to the $20k range would go against previous trends. Through all bear markets, bitcoin still has not fallen below the 200 Week SMA, which an 85% correction down from $69k would break.

BTC has never broken below 200 week SMA | Source: TradingView.com

So if the digital asset were to keep to previous trends, bitcoin would need to rise much higher than its $69K all-time high. This way, an 85% drop in value in the following bear market would not see it fall below the 200 Week SMA.

This scenario paints a bullish outlook for BTC in the long term as if it stays true to this, then the current trends are only just a small roadblock. It also means that bitcoin would be expected to break the $100K point in the mid to long-term.

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It is also important to note that although bitcoin has historically followed previous trends, there is nothing to indicate that it cannot break out of these trends. The 2021 rallies are a testament to the digital asset’s ability to form new trends as time goes on. So while bullish on the fact that it has never broken the 200 Week SMA, it could very well happen if bitcoin loses 85% of its ATH value.

BTC drops to $38K | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from UseTheBitcoin, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Breaks Above 50-Day SMA, Will BTC Ride It Out To $50,000?

Bitcoin has broken above $44,000 once again. After a couple of weeks of low momentum, bitcoin has been able to begin another recovery trend that has seen it add over $4,000 to its price in the last day. Its landing point has been above $43,000, finding its footing at this level, which has put it above the 50-day simple moving average. What does this mean for bitcoin?

Bitcoin Breaks Above 50-Day SMA

Bitcoin is now trading above the 50-Day simple moving average. This point is significant to the digital asset given that it represents what buyers are willing to pay for it in the short to medium term. When bitcoin sits below this level, it shows a lack of enthusiasm among buyers and an unwillingness to pay the price paid previously over the last couple of weeks.

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However, with BTC now trading above this level, it shows that investors are looking to get back in the market. It takes the reins out of the hands of the sellers and makes it a buyer’s market. With buy pressure growing, more supply is taken off the market and the valuation of the digital asset shoots up.

This could also show that bitcoin has already marked a local bottom at $38,000. With this bottom confirmed, it shows a local support point for BTC where bulls have put up much resistance.

BTC settles above $43K | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Alternatively, the digital asset is now also trading above the 5 and 20-day simple moving averages. This is incredibly bullish for the short term. Pressures have now greatly skewed into buy, pumping the value of the digital asset in its wake. More than that, BTC investors are choosing more and more to hold instead of sell for profits, with miners leading the charge in this regard.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Mining More Damaging To The Environment After China Ban, Study Says

Even with the recent uptrend, bitcoin is not out of the woods yet though. It has broken the first resistance point of $43,349 on Tuesday but the next resistance point remains a hurdle. There is no doubt that bears will mount resistance at the $45,044 level, which makes this an important milestone for the cryptocurrency. If bitcoin can break through this, the next resistance sits a little above $48,000, after which there is nothing holding the asset back from break-in above $50,000.

One thing to note though is that the first support level for bitcoin sits far below this first resistance point. If BTC fails to hold above $43,300, then it could prove to be a short ride down to $38,000 once more, where the bulls have formed the strongest support. For a highly volatile asset like bitcoin, it could see another $5,000 shaved off its price as easily as it had gained it.

Featured image from South China Morning Post, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Sets Stage For Reversal As Unmoved Supply Nears All-Time High

The unmoved supply of bitcoin continues to grow despite declining prices. This has various implications for the digital asset, with the major one being the volume of available supply in the open market. For most bull rallies in the past, this unmoved supply had remained low, declining at points where investors dumped their bags to avoid the crash. But this illiquid supply is once again on the rise.

60% Of Bitcoin In Unmoved Supply

Bitcoin has maintained its position as the leading crypto investment. This is why owning the cryptocurrency is one of the most coveted positions in the space. However, instead of buying these digital assets and selling them for a profit at a later date, holders of the majority of the supply have opted to hold onto their coins, leading to the large portion of supply being unmoved for a long time.

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These bitcoins have not been transferred in at least one year and have remained untouched in that timeframe. On-chain data shows that these investors are picking holding for the long-term rather than short-term gains. As far as investing, these investors have either continued to increase their balances or at the very least, maintained their holdings. This long-term holding sentiment has led to over 60% of all BTC supply remaining in place for the past year.

BTC reverses above $39,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

For a more accurate figure, Glassnode reports that 60.61% of all bitcoin is yet to be moved in more than a year as of February 18, which was last week. These holdings have remained in place or ‘idle’ in this time frame, showing that the investors do not plan on moving their holdings in the short term. Mostly, larger investors known as whales are behind the majority of the unmoved supply, upping their investments as time goes on.

But Why Is BTC Declining?

Despite more than 60% of supply remaining unmoved, the price of bitcoin has taken hit after hit. Usually, hold sentiment among investors would point towards bullish sentiment and this would trigger an increase in value, but not this time. As sentiment has declined across the space, so has the desire to accumulate coins declined among investors, evident in mostly small-time holders who are said to be behind the recent decline.

Related Reading | Ethereum Founder Vitalik Buterin Welcomes Another Crypto Winter

Indicators also show that investors are less likely to purchase the digital asset for prices they have over the past few months. Bitcoin is now trading lower than its average for the past year, and its decline below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) spells more downtrends in the near future.

Nevertheless, some investors remain undeterred and have taken this as a chance to add to their crypto bags. This accumulation trend is however too weak to have any impact and bitcoin continues to suffer dips as it comes out of the weekend.

Featured image from PCMag, chart from TradingView.com

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Did Top Three Bitcoin Addresses Just Call Another Local Bottom?

The buying pattern of bitcoin whales has long been an indicator for coming market movement. While it may not happen everything, the fact remains that these top addresses control enough of the supply between them to have significant impacts on the price. This is evident in past movements coinciding with major price shifts and once again, these whales have gone on another accumulation trend that could be the start of another bull rally.

Bitcoin Addresses With 100K Accumulated

The bitcoin addresses that hold more than 100K on their balances are followed by investors and their activities are closely monitored. Usually, depending on if these wallets are buying or selling, the amounts can be large enough to move the needle more than a few inches. This time around, the wallets have been accumulating and their collective balances have reached a critical point.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Dominance Drops To 42% As Price Declines Below $43,000

On-chain analysis firm Santiment recently reported that three bitcoin wallets holding more than 100K BTC have been increasing their holdings for the past year. These wallets which had a collective balance of 260K coins by February last year have more than doubled their holdings. In the space of a year, they have added a collective total of 404K BTC, bringing their balance to 664K.

🐳 #Bitcoin's top addresses with 100k+ coins currently hold 664k $BTC after sitting at just 260k $BTC in Feb, 2021. There are currently 3 addresses of at least this size. They held an #AllTimeHigh of 693k $BTC in late June, just prior to prices surging. https://t.co/VRMD1itWCL pic.twitter.com/V9bqIOrB6j

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 16, 2022

This is not a new record but is close to the previous all-time high balances of these three wallets. In June last year, the three wallets hit an all-time high of 693K on their balances, still unbroken to date.

Why Is This Important?

Well, one thing about these three wallets is the kind of pull they have in the market. The last time the wallets accumulated this much bitcoin was at the bottom of the downtrend in mid-2021. At the tie that these whale wallets hit their all-time high bitcoin holdings, the digital asset marked a local bottom. This was promptly followed by a tremendous bull rally that sent bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies towards new all-time highs.

BTC loses footing at $40K | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Now, the wallets have accumulated close to the same position once again. With less than 30K BTC left to reach its previous high, bitcoin looks to be marking another local bottom. If this is the case, then bitcoin could be gearing up for another rally towards a new all-time high.

Related Reading | Monero (XMR) Price Slides As Canada Includes Crypto In Emergencies Act

While this may be quite bullish for the digital asset, other indicators point towards more bearish tendencies. Bitcoin is only trading above its 20-day SMA and even that is barely holding. It shows that fewer investors are willing to purchase the asset for prices they have in recent weeks causing a decline in value. If this continues, then bitcoin could very well be struggling to hold its next support level at $39,190 in no time.

Featured image from MARCA, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Whales Accumulation Patterns Shows Strong Bullish Sentiment Among Top Holders

Whales have not stopped accumulating bitcoin. Current trend patterns suggest that bitcoin whales who hold between 100 to 1,000 BTC remain very bullish on the digital asset’s prospects. The slow month of September had seen the asset suffer dips and crashes which brought the price down to the $40K trading range. However, whales had used this as an opportunity to increase their holdings at a low price.

Bitcoin wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 had continued to add to their balance and by the end of September, these wallets had accumulated a collective total of 85.7K BTC. In today’s prices, this amount would total $4.76 worth of BTC accumulated by whales while retail investors panicked sold their holdings. These whale addresses have also held on their bags through the long-suffering month of September.

Whales Increase Their Hold On Circulating Supply

As bitcoin whales accumulate more coins, the amount of the total circulating supply of bitcoin that they hold has also increased. Current numbers put the total supply of BTC held by these whale wallets at 21.3% of the total circulating supply of the asset. This number represents a new record for wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC on their balances.

Related Reading | Number Of Bitcoin Active Entities Grows 19% To Hit 2020 Bull Levels, Set Up For New Highs?

In addition to buying, whales are also holding. 2021 marked a record number of diamond hands (long-term holders) in bitcoin. A reported 81% of the total BTC supply has not moved in the last three months. This metric shows that the digital asset may be heading into a supply shock.

The amount of BTC leaving exchanges outpaces the number of coins moving in, suggesting that investors are accumulating their assets and moving them to safer personal storage options.

Bitcoin Price Recovers From Tuesday’s Dip

Bitcoin price had fallen below the $54K on Tuesday night after the price of the digital asset had moved close to $58K during the day. This was attributed to traders cashing in some gains after the asset had hit its new four-month high. However, the asset had begun to recover about an hour after the dip and touched north of $56K in the early morning of Wednesday before trickling back down again.

BTC price recovers to trade north of $57K | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

As midweek trading opens up, bitcoin has begun to see renewed recovery vigor. The price had dipped again to $54K, albeit a higher low this time than was seen in the late Tuesday dip. With whales filling up their bags and strong hold sentiment among investors, the asset looks poised to make another break towards $57K.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Over $100,000 Is Still Possible By Year-End, Says Research Analyst

Bitcoin is down 3.78% in the last 24 hours to be trading at $55,048 at the time of this writing. Trading volume is up in the same time period, but the price dip saw a 3.90% loss in the market cap, which is still holding steady above $1 trillion.

Featured image from Xycinews, chart from TradingView.com