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Bloomberg Analyst Predicts Likelihood Of A Spot Bitcoin ETF By January 2024

Following notable changes to the ARK 21Shares Spot Bitcoin ETF application, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have predicted that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could approve a fund as early as next year.  

90% Chance Of Approval

In a post shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Seyffart highlighted his team’s prediction of the 90% chance that a Spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved by Ark Invest’s January 10 deadline. January 10 is the day the SEC is expected to make a final decision (approval or denial) on ARK Invest’s Spot Bitcoin ETF application. 

Their latest prediction comes amid the recent amendment ARK Invest and 21Shares made to their Spot Bitcoin ETF prospectus. These updates include further context to the fund and additional risk disclosures. These analysts believe that this sort of amendment only happens when a fund is on its way to being approved. 

These Bloomberg analysts had earlier predicted (following Grayscale’s victory) that there was a 75% chance that the pending Spot Bitcoin ETF applications could be approved this year and that the odds would rise to 95% by the end of next year if these funds weren’t approved by then. 

Eric Balchunas noted on his X platform that Invesco Galaxy had also amended its Spot Bitcoin ETF prospectus following the ARK 21Shares amendment. He stated that he expects other applicants to update their applications soon. This suggests that the SEC could approve all applications simultaneously, similar to what it did with the Ethereum futures ETFs.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Spot bitcoin ETF)

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Given Huge Boost Following SEC’s Decision

Meanwhile, these Spot Bitcoin ETF applications were given a huge boost following the SEC’s decision not to appeal the court’s ruling in its case against Grayscale. The SEC had until October 13 to appeal the Court of Appeal’s ruling that it had acted arbitrarily and capriciously in disapproving Grayscale’s application to convert its GBTC fund into a Spot Bitcoin ETF.

Following its decision not to file an en banc application or appeal to the Supreme Court, Reuters reported that the appeals court is expected to issue a mandate laying out how the SEC could carry out its order, including the Commission reviewing Grayscale’s application again. 

James Seyffart also noted that dialogue between Grayscale and SEC should begin next week. However, it remains uncertain if or when the SEC will approve these applications, especially considering that it has delayed its decision on all Spot Bitcoin ETFs till next year.

Bitcoin has reacted positively to the news of the SEC’s decision not to file an appeal, currently trading at around $26,849.76, up in the last twenty-four hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

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BlockFi CEO’s Key Testimony: Insights Into Alameda’s Financial Stability In FTX Trial

The trial against FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried took an intriguing turn as Zac Prince, the CEO of defunct crypto lender BlockFi, provided testimony in a Manhattan federal courtroom. 

Prince’s appearance provided valuable insights into the intricate relationship between BlockFi, FTX, and Alameda Research.

BlockFi’s Bankruptcy Rooted In Alameda And FTX

According to a Bloomberg report, Prince revealed that BlockFi had substantial exposure to Alameda and FTX, estimated at around $1 billion, at the time of BlockFi’s failure in November 2022. 

Prince asserted that if the loans to Alameda were still in good standing and the funds on FTX were available, BlockFi would not have filed for bankruptcy. This statement suggests that BlockFi’s financial troubles were closely tied to the collapse of Alameda and FTX.

Prince’s testimony diverged significantly from Caroline Ellison, the government’s star witness, who portrayed Bankman-Fried as the mastermind behind a fraudulent scheme using FTX customer funds for speculative trading at Alameda. 

Prince’s account positioned BlockFi as a victim of Bankman-Fried’s alleged schemes, claiming that BlockFi made loans to Alameda based on misleading balance sheets. 

Defense lawyers sought to emphasize that BlockFi willingly provided the loans to Alameda, with knowledge of the associated risks.

Creditors Accuse BlockFi Of Inadequate Due Diligence

Prince discussed BlockFi’s due diligence process regarding Alameda’s collateral, comprised of tokens affiliated with FTX. The judge requested plainer terms during Prince’s explanation, prompting an analogy using car loans. 

Per the report, the prosecution questioned the adequacy of BlockFi’s due diligence, as creditors accused the company of failing to recognize warning signs before offering substantial loans to Alameda.

Prince’s testimony highlighted that providing “unaudited balance sheets” is an industry norm for borrowers seeking loans. The defense sought to establish that BlockFi knew the risks of lending to Alameda and acted within industry norms.

Zac Prince’s testimony in the trial against Sam Bankman-Fried provided a deeper understanding of the intertwined relationships within the crypto industry. BlockFi’s exposure to Alameda and FTX and its subsequent bankruptcy offered insights into the potential repercussions of alleged fraudulent activities. 

The differing narratives presented by the prosecution and defense underscore the complexities of the case. As the trial unfolds, the court will continue to examine the details surrounding BlockFi’s lending practices and the extent of Bankman-Fried’s involvement in the alleged schemes.

It is important to note that BlockFi can no longer be utilized for crypto-related activities, as the company declared bankruptcy and suspended withdrawals in November 2022. The bankruptcy filing indicates that BlockFi owes between $1 billion and $10 billion to over 100,000 creditors.

FTX

Featured image from NBC, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Path To $70,000? Analyst Shows What This ‘Head And Shoulders’ Pattern Reveals

Bitcoin, the leading digital asset in terms of market cap and adoption, recent activity on its price chart has led to speculation and predictions about its future trajectory. 

Acclaimed cryptocurrency trader, known as Mags on the X (formerly known as Twitter) platform, recently shared his analysis on Bitcoin, suggesting a significant price surge for Bitcoin soon.

The Bitcoin ‘Head And Shoulders’ Insight

According to Mags, Bitcoin’s journey to a $70,000 price tag is foreseeable. His deduction stems from observing an inverted ‘Head and Shoulders’ pattern on Bitcoin’s price chart. Notably, this is a predictive tool in technical analysis that indicates potential price reversals based on prior movements.

Mags highlighted that Bitcoin’s price is currently at the so-called ‘neckline’ of this pattern. If the pattern holds and Bitcoin breaks out from this neckline, it could be a bullish indicator for the flagship cryptocurrency.

Mixed Reactions In The Community

Sergey Stolyarov, a user on X, expressed skepticism over the said pattern’s significance. In Stolyarov’s view, the construction and structural reasons don’t qualify the observed pattern as a ‘Head and Shoulders.’

Stolyarov added that such formations could be discerned at any time and any part of the Bitcoin chart, implying the ubiquitous nature of pattern formation in volatile markets.

Another user criticized Mag’s interpretation of Bitcoin’s price chart, emphasizing that a genuine “Head and Shoulders” pattern exists on the regular chart that predicts a price decline to 20,000. The user noted:

nope – bitcoin actually formed a picture head and shoulders on the NOT inverted chart but you were so biased that you have to hunt for head and shoulders that it’s a shitty one on inverted bitcoin chart so you don’t have to look at the head and shoulders. It is also very large and points to a target of 20,000 short term.

However, while some users sided with Mags, others took a more critical approach. Resham Singh, another member of the X platform, voiced appreciation for Mags’ analytical approach, deeming it “impressive.” Singh seemed to align with Mags’ projection, hinting that such a price movement would mark a milestone for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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What To Expect If Historical Bitcoin Halving Cycles Repeat

It’s been quite a bearish week for Bitcoin, as the crypto has fallen around 3% since the beginning of the week. Price action, in particular, has had Bitcoin struggling to break above $27,000, indicating a potential risk of more losses below this resistance level in the near term. 

However, according to a crypto analyst, this current retracement might be the beginning of a historical Bitcoin cycle before each halving.

Analyst Shows Bitcoin Price Correction Based On Historical Trends

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has said in a post that if historical Bitcoin “halving cycles” are any indication, a major price correction could be right around the corner. The Bitcoin halving cuts the block reward for miners in half. 

This happens roughly every 4 years to slow the creation of new BTC and control inflation. Based on historical data from the previous two Bitcoin halvings, the price of BTC could drop by up to 38% before the next halving.

In a chart shared on X (formerly Twitter), Rekt Capital showed a major pull back has happened around six months before each halving. In the 2015 cycle, BTC retraced 25% 196 days before the 2016 halving. 

In 2019, BTC retraced 38%, 196 days before the 2020 halving. So with the next halving slated to occur around April 2024, it would seem the market is now in a prime position for the next correction. 

Bitcoin halving

Bitcoin is currently 60% below its all-time high, following a similar pattern with past halvings. 200 days before the 2020 halving, BTC was 60% below its all-time high. Likewise, 200 days before the 2016 halving, BTC was 65% below its all-time high.

What A Correction Would Mean For BTC

Bitcoin’s price direction is currently uncertain, especially as on-chain transactions on the blockchain are now at a three-month low. On-chain metrics have shown that 95% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply hasn’t changed hands in the past month, as investors seem to be holding on to the cryptocurrency in anticipation of the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Although past performance doesn’t always repeat, if this pattern shows up again before the next halving, Bitcoin could be in for a big correction. With the current price of BTC now at $26,770, a 38% retracement could see BTC fall below $18,000. If this happens, it would be devastating for BTC holders. 

Even though a price correction may be on the horizon, Bitcoin’s long-term growth prospects remain strong. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has shown a consistent upward trend as the largest crypto by market cap despite facing several setbacks. 

Bitcoin has been named the best performer this year in terms of asset investing by Reflexivity, a digital asset research firm. According to billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, this is the best time to buy BTC. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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This Trader Is On The Brink Of Losing Money, Will Selling WBTC On Aave V2 Help?

A trader on Aave, a decentralized liquidity protocol operating on multiple platforms, including Ethereum and OP Mainnet, has begun selling wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) to repay outstanding debt, records on October 13 reveal. WBTC is a tokenized version of Bitcoin issued on Ethereum that allows holders to engage in decentralized finance (DeFi) activities.

Trader Selling WBTC To Repay Debt On Aave v2

According to Lookonchain data, the unidentified trader marked with address “0x47ab” borrowed roughly $8 million worth of multiple stablecoins, including USDC, USDT, and DAI, Maker’s stablecoin, on Aave v2 after depositing various assets, including WBTC, Maker (MKR), and Ethereum (ETH) worth approximately $11 million.

When writing, the health factor of borrowed assets stands at 1.09, teetering close to liquidation. According to Aave’s documents, the health factor is a metric that compares the safety of collateral and borrowed loans to the underlying value. Technically, the higher it is, the safer the funds are from liquidation. If the health factor exceeds $1, deposited collateral will be liquidated to borrow outstanding loans. 

Health factor on Aave v2| Source: DeBank

Aave is a popular decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol where token holders can choose to supply liquidity and earn passive income. At the same time, users can deposit collateral and borrow overcollateralized loans, which they can repay at any time, provided the health factor is around 1. Since loans are overcollateralized, the collateral is usually higher than the borrowed amount.

Volatile Bitcoin Prices To Blame?

As it is, the trader, Lookonchain shows, has started selling WBTC to repay outstanding debt. A big chunk of what the trader supplied is in WBTC, standing at 366.56 WBTC, worth roughly $9.1 million at spot rates. 

Selling WBTC to repay Aave V2 loan| Source: Lookonchain on X

However, considering market prices have fluctuated recently, the contraction has impacted the health factor, increasing the risk of collateral liquidation. To counter this, the trader sold 3 WBTC for roughly $80,000. 

WBTC price on Binance| Source: WBTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

The address still owes Aave V2 approximately $8.08 million, mostly in USDT, at around $5 million. There are $3 million of USDC and around $368,000 of DAI. It is unclear whether the trader will seek to borrow more, especially if Bitcoin prices increase.

The address remains long on MKR, the governance token of the MakerDAO protocol; Uniswap’s UNI; Chainlink’s LINK; and Ethereum. Besides WBTC, the trader’s second-largest holding is in ETH, while the smallest is MKR. Ironically, MKR has been one of the top-performing assets, rallying by over 160% in H2 2023 alone. The token peaked at $1,600 in early October before cooling off to spot rates.

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Cardano (ADA) Addresses In Loss Rise Over 94%, Is It Time To Jump Ship?

Cardano is down 45.6% from its yearly high of $0.4518 and is showing no signs of slowing down at the moment. Data has shown that at its current price, the majority of Cardano holders are losing money, further showing the state of the cryptocurrency’s price. 

Cardano (ADA) addresses in loss is now over 94%, leaving many investors wondering if it’s time to cut their losses and move on. 

Cardano (ADA) Addresses In Loss Rise Over 94%

Cardano (ADA) is currently the 8th largest crypto by market cap, with a market cap of $8.65 billion. However, all metrics have pointed to the cryptocurrency losing stream and struggling to receive inflow from investors. 

For instance, ADA is down by 7.% in a 7-day time frame. Its trading volume has also fallen by 12.67% in the past 24 hours, showing a lack of interest in either buying or selling the cryptocurrency.

Data from IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of the Money metric has shown the number of Cardano addresses in red is now at 94.15%. The metric, which shows the number of addresses making profits and losses at a cryptocurrency’s current price, shows that the number of Cardano addresses in loss is now over 4.19 million. 

Many ADA investors bought in near the peak hype during its all-time high. Of the 4.19 million addresses in loss, 691,480 addresses bought between $1.59 to $2.97, and 608,590 addresses bought between $1.17 to $1.59. On the other hand, only 174,840 Cardano addresses representing 3.92% of the total addresses, are currently at a profit.

Cardano ADA holders

Whale transactions have also been quiet on Cardano’s blockchain in the past 24 hours. Another IntoTheBlock metric shows the number of transactions with a value of $100,000 or greater has been in a freefall since May. 

Cardano ADa transactionsSource: IntoTheBlock

Is It Time To Jump Ship?

The low profitability of ADA holders is probably surprising, given the Cardano blockchain’s popularity. According to recent data released by blockchain analytics firm Santiment, the Cardano network is still the most popular among developers. 

Cardano developers have also been actively building and introducing exciting innovations to the blockchain and ecosystem. One example of these developments is the updates to its Lace wallet.

Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, recently dismissed rumors of issues within the blockchain. And as long as developers remain dedicated to improving the network, Cardano will continue to progress as one of the biggest cryptocurrencies. 

For long-term believers in ADA, the current low price could actually be an opportunity to stock up in anticipation for the next crypto bull market. 

Cardano ADA price chart from Tradingview.com holders

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Bitcoin Price Rally On The Horizon? BTC Spot ETFs May Get The Green Light Today

In what could be a pivotal day for the Bitcoin price, the last day for the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to appeal the Grayscale Bitcoin (BTC) spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) decision is approaching, and the crypto community is eagerly awaiting the outcome.

The implications of this decision are significant, as it could pave the way for the approval of several other spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

Impending Approval Of All Proposed Bitcoin Spot ETFs? 

According to crypto YouTuber Crypto Rover, if the SEC does not appeal the court’s ruling by the end of the day, it would potentially lose its ability to deny future applications, resulting in the likely approval of all proposed spot ETFs.

The current list of applicants seeking approval includes prominent names such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, Ark/21 Shares Bitcoin Trust, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Trust, VanEck Bitcoin Trust, WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust, Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund, Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF, and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust.

If all Bitcoin spot ETFs are approved, the move would mark a significant milestone in the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies. 

Accepting these financial instruments would provide investors with a regulated and easily accessible avenue to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price movements without directly owning the underlying asset. 

The approval would also vote for confidence in the cryptocurrency market, attracting institutional investors and potentially injecting fresh capital into the space.

The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs also can ignite a renewed sense of optimism and investor sentiment. The anticipation of such a development has already fueled speculation of a Bitcoin rally, with market participants eyeing a new annual high. 

The thawing of the crypto winter and the approval of these ETFs could create a perfect storm for a Bitcoin price to surge, potentially breaching the $30,000 mark and beyond.

Bitcoin Price Awaiting ETF Relief

The largest cryptocurrency in the market is striving to reclaim the crucial $27,000 level, trading at $26,700. This level holds significant importance for bullish investors as it represents a key threshold to break the mid-term downtrend structure observed in BTC’s 1-day chart since its yearly high of $31,800 on July 13

Bitcoin price

Additionally, the failure of the Bitcoin price to hold its 200-day (yellow line) and 50-day (brown line) moving averages (MAs) as support lines is a cause for concern among bullish traders. These MAs, similar to the situation in March 2023, are currently converging.

However, the potential approval of a BTC spot ETF could provide much-needed relief to Bitcoin’s price. Forming a complete rally would require overcoming various resistance levels in such a scenario.

In the short term, Bitcoin’s price will likely face a significant obstacle at the $27,900 level, which was briefly surpassed on October 2nd. Furthermore, BTC encounters a 3-month resistance at $28,700, marking the final hurdle before reaching the $30,000 level, serving as another resistance line.

Nevertheless, the community anxiously awaits the approval of BTC spot ETFs, hoping that it will bring a sense of relief and bullish momentum for investors and Bitcoin’s price. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Man Makes A Fortune With $22 In Bitcoin: 3 Altcoins For October 2023 That Can Do This

Bitcoin’s history is filled with stories of people who put small, disposable amounts of money into the crypto and ended up making a fortune. This has been no different from the case of one Norwegian man, whose throwaway $22 Bitcoin investment has turned into a life-changing sum.

When Kristoffer Koch had originally invested in Bitcoin back in 2009, the cryptocurrency was only trading for a few cents. Koch, at the time, was intrigued which is why he said he made the purchase. He got 5,000 BTC for around $22 at the time, although this figure often varies.

Nevertheless, Koch ended up forgetting about this purchase until four years later when Bitcoin had blown up. By the time the Norwegian man got into his Bitcoin wallet, his initial $22 purchase had ballooned into $850,000. Upon seeing the life-changing sum, Koch revealed that he had used part of the money to buy himself a flat in Oslo.

As stories like these continue to make the rounds, a question on the lips of investors, especially those who came in later than the likes of Koch, is which cryptocurrencies could replicate such growth. So here are some picks that look good.

Fetch AI (FET) Brings AI To Crypto

The AI narrative is still holding strong both within and outside the crypto market and this has positioned some projects to be able to take advantage of its expected growth. Fetch AI’s native FET token has already shown the opportunity that lies in this space but that was only in a bear market. A bull market could see FET’s price rise further and do numbers.

The project is looking to democratize AI access through a crypto economy. This means users will be able to access AI in a completely decentralized and permissionless way unlike the AI products seen in traditional spheres.

Secret (SCRT) Challenges Bitcoin With Privacy

Presently, when the topic of privacy coins comes up, two names tend to pop up quickly, which include Monero’s XMR and Secret’s SCRT. Secret actually users ‘Secret Contracts’ to allow decentralized applications to offer completely private transactions.

As the demand for privacy grows among crypto users who constantly have to be aware of the government’s encroachment, SCRT’s value proposition becomes even more important. Added to its low $51 million market cap, SCRT could see a rally similar to that of Bitcoin.

Radiant Capital (RDNT) With Fragmented Liquidity

When it comes to carrying out transactions on-chain, liquidity becomes king, and this is where Radiant Capital (RDNT) comes in. The project is looking to consolidate fragmented liquidity in a bid to enhance the available liquidity for decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols.

This will work across a number of lending protocols regardless of the blockchain that they are on. So instead of hopping from one protocol to another, DeFi users can take advantage of this using a single protocol.

Radiant’s value proposition in a sector that is continuously evolving and growing could see it put on a Bitcoin-like rally. This could see its market cap go from its current $70 million to billions of dollars.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Crypto altcoins)