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Next Bitcoin Peak: Why It Could Still Be 2 Years Away

Bitcoin’s last all-time high was $69,000 in November 2021; as of September 2023, it’s been 22 months since that peak. While estimating what price Bitcoin could reach next can be very useful, it’s also important to estimate when a new peak could occur.

History suggests this may still be some time away, as analysis shows that the next Bitcoin peak could arise around the end of 2025.

Previous Cycles

A specific pattern seems to occur when looking at previous tops and bottoms. The three previous bottoms, January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022, were all exactly 47 months apart. Similarly, the previous three tops, November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021, are either 49 or 47 months apart.

Market participants could anticipate the next Bitcoin peak around October-December 2025 if this pattern persists. The subsequent bottom could then occur around October 2026.

This phenomenon of tops and bottoms forming cyclically is a widely held belief in investing. Both stock markets and economies are believed to experience periods of expansion, marked by increased economic activity and rising stock market prices, and contraction, during which the stock market prices decline, and economic growth slows.

What’s particularly interesting about Bitcoin is its consistent pattern of forming its tops and bottoms roughly every four years. The ‘halving theory’ is a popular explanation for this observed pattern.

The Halving Theory

Approximately every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a ‘halving’ event, during which the reward for mining new blocks (i.e. the new supply of Bitcoin) is halved. This mechanism ensures the scarcity of Bitcoin, which is capped at a maximum supply of 21 million coins. A simple economic principle suggests that prices rise when supply drops while demand stays constant or grows.

Historically, Bitcoin has reached a new peak a year after each halving. Given that the next halving is projected to be in April 2024, it aligns with the chart above, showing the next Bitcoin peak to be around the end of 2025.

Next Bitcoin Peak – Will This Time Be Different?

While historical data points provide valuable insights into the potential future performance of an asset, it’s crucial to understand that history does not always exactly repeat itself – it often rhymes. This suggests that while certain patterns from the past might re-emerge, they don’t necessarily play out in the same way.

Various factors, such as technological advances, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory changes, can introduce differences.

In the current market scenario, Bitcoin is navigating through a high-inflation and high-interest-rate environment for the first time. These conditions can lower market liquidity as investors might have reduced capital available for investment.

Additionally, faced with such an environment, many investors could turn to savings or bonds, which may present more attractive and stable returns than other assets.

Predycto is the author of a cryptocurrency newsletter. Sign up for free. Follow @Predycto on Twitter.

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The Ethereum Foundation Sold At The Top Again. Did They Know Something We Didn’t?

Apparently, the Ethereum Foundation employs incredible traders. Once again, they managed to cash out at the very top. On November 16th, ETH was worth an all-time high of $4891. On the very next day, the Ethereum Foundation sent 20,000 ETH to Kraken and sold them. Is this suspicious at all? Not per se, but this is the second time that they pull the same magic move. 

Related Reading | Why The Ethereum Foundation Launched A Client Incentive Program

A professional trader that goes by the name Edward Morra on Twitter was the first to spot the trade. “Friendly reminder that ETH foundation cashed out at the top (again). ETH down 40+% since then,” he said. Morra also provided a chart that shows ETH’s sharp decline in price since the sale.

$ETHFriendly reminder that ETH foundation cashed out at the top (again). ETH down 40+% since then pic.twitter.com/Bp80hEDvK0

— Edward Morra (@edwardmorra_btc) January 21, 2022

To add insult to injury, the Ethereum Foundation only paid $20 in gas fees. That might be the most impressive feat of them all.

At the time of writing, the Ethereum Foundation’s wallet holds 353,318 ETH, which is approximately $835K at current prices.

What Do We Know About The Organization’s Previous Sell-Off?

Back to Morra, his Twitter followers told him that this information was of no use to them this late in the game. The trader surprised the world and pulled an ace up his sleeve. As it turns out, Morra tweeted about the trade at the time it happened. Not only that, he warned them, “They cashed out 35k ETH on 17th of May this year, marked on the chart.”

Casual 20k ETH cashout by EthDev, sent to Kraken:https://t.co/w6AbdeW2AJThey cashed out 35k ETH on 17th of May this year, marked on the chart 👇 pic.twitter.com/sTbUwHSzD4

— Edward Morra (@edwardmorra_btc) November 11, 2021

As you can see on the chart, on May 17th the price of ETH was near its previous peak. And after the Ethereum Foundation sold, ETH trended down for months and months. Is this a coincidence? Does the foundation employ great traders? Or, is there something else to this story? Did they dump on retail ETH holders? Did the Ethereum Foundation know anything that the rest of the world didn’t?

The Ethereum Foundation still holds 394,787 ETH, and Vitalik said he persuaded foundation to sell 70,000 ETH at the top of 2018 to support the work of developers. This is a normal operation, but it also means that the Foundation thought that bear market is coming.

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) May 21, 2021

At the time of the first sell-off, journalist Colin Wu highlighted the trade and said, “The Ethereum Foundation transferred 35,000 Eth to the Kraken Exchange on May 17. Vitalik said bubbles could have ended already on May 20.” Analyzing the move, Wu said, “This is a normal operation, but it also means that the Foundation thought that bear market is coming.”

The gas fee for this operation was 0.00240474 ETH, or $5.66 at the time of writing. Wow.

ETH price chart for 01/25/2022 on Bitfinex | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
What’s The Ethereum Foundation Anyway?

According to Ethereum’s official site:

“The EF is not a company, or even a traditional non-profit. Their role is not to control or lead Ethereum, nor they are the only organization that funds critical development of Ethereum-related technologies. The EF is one part of a much larger ecosystem.”

The Ethereum Foundation distributes funds to developers via the Ecosystem Support Program and the Fellowship Program, organizes Devcom, and more. To do all that, they surely need Fiat currency in some capacity. The trade makes sense from that angle.

Related Reading | Ethereum Foundation Devs Discuss ETH2 Launch & Economics

The question, though, is, did they know that a crash was coming? And if they did, did they reach that conclusion through technical and on-chain analysis or by… other methods?

Featured Image by PatriestB on Pixabay | Charts by TradingView

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Solana Hits New All-Time High, Surpasses Cardano And Tether To Fourth Place

The Solana (SOL) ecosystem continues to see huge growth in the market. SOL price touched another record high on Sunday, November 7, as it reached $260.06. Its price is up by almost 17,500% YTD – from $1.51. SOL surpassed Cardano (ADA) and Tether (USDT) to become the fourth-largest cryptocurrency with a market capitalization of $75.4 billion.

Related Reading | Is Cardano Fighting A Losing Battle Against Solana?

At the time of writing, it falls behind Binance Coin (BNB) $109 billion, Ether (ETH) $546 billion, and Bitcoin (BTC) $1.17 trillion. While it is creeping closer to Ethereum, there is still a huge gap between both coins.

Meanwhile, ADA and USDT’s market capitalization came out to be $67.1 billion and $74.4 billion, respectively.

SOL Rises After $100 Million Investment Initiative

Solana’s rise to ATH comes just after its venture capital arm Solana Ventures, Lightspeed Venture Partners, and FTX spearheaded a new investment fund dedicated to Web 3 gaming, also known as GameFi. Web 3 gaming has skyrocketed in popularity.

Related Reading | Solana, FTX, Lightspeed Ventures To Launch $100M Web3 Gaming Fund

The venture company intends to increase SOL adoption by attracting desktop and mobile video game developers to build their projects on its public blockchain. With SOL’s bullish run recently, many are comparing it to No. 2 crypto Ethereum.

“Solana is the leading Ethereum competitor,” Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, said to CNBC. “I wouldn’t put all my chips on it, but I’m a big fan.”

SOL trading at $248.7 | Source: SOLUSD on TradingView.com

One of the reasons for this comparison is that both ETH and SOL have smart contract capabilities. Smart contracts are simply programs stored on a blockchain that run when predetermined conditions are met. They are important in running decentralized finance applications and non-fungible tokens.

“A lot of the fastest-growing applications of crypto technology have been built on Ethereum and rely on the Ethereum blockchain to function,” Hougan says. “If you’re investing in Solana, you’re betting that its technical sophistication will help it leapfrog Ethereum.”

Solana And NFTs

NFT industry data aggregator CryptoSlam ranks Solana as the fourth-best NFT blockchain behind Ethereum, Ronin, and Wax by 24-hour sales volume. The data shows that Solana saw a record month for secondary NFT sales volume during September with a total of $189.4 million.

Related Reading | Why Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya Invested In The Solana Ecosystem

Secondary sales volume for Solana-based NFTs has reached almost $500 million since the start of August.
The biggest collection of NFTs on the blockchain is the Degen Ape Academy series of ape digital collectibles. So far, the Degenerate Ape Academy has sold ape NFTs worth about 986,300 SOL.

Mason Nystrom, a Messari research analyst, remarked that how quickly the blockchain has grown to be one of the top NFT blockchains in just a few months.

While Solana displays promising metrics in unique addresses (buyers and sellers) and a lower avg NFT sale price, Ethereum still dwarfs Solana in total NFT secondary volumes.

Still, Solana has become one of the top NFT blockchains by secondary trading in mere months. pic.twitter.com/9HfOp7IRut

— Mason Nystrom (@masonnystrom) November 2, 2021

He also noted that as of November 1, Solana’s NFT secondary sales reached $500 million in just three months.

Featured image by CNBC, Chart from TradingView.com