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Crypto Expert Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Has Found Its Local Bottom – But Can It Hold This Level?

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, recently shared his thoughts on the current Bitcoin price action. He stated that the flagship crypto has hit a local low and predicted what its future trajectory will look like. 

Hayes Says Bitcoin Has Bottomed 

In a recent blog post, Hayes mentioned that Bitcoin hit a local low when it dropped to around $58,600 earlier this week. As such, he doesn’t foresee the flagship crypto dropping below that price range again anytime soon.

Instead, he predicts that Bitcoin will rally above $60,000 (which it already did) and “then range-bound price action between $60,000 and $70,000 until August.”

Hayes also suggested that Bitcoin’s recent decline was due to several factors, including the Fed rate decision, the Bitcoin halving sell-the-news event, and the slowdown in the demand for US Spot Bitcoin ETFs.

He also used the opportunity to touch on the recent Fed and Treasury policy announcements, which he believes will significantly impact crypto.

Hayes claimed those announcements meant the government would likely resort to money printing soon enough. He believes the potential injection of liquidity into the US economy will “dampen negative price movement” in the crypto market. As such, he expects that prices will “bottom, chop, and begin a slow grind higher.”

Hayes’ projections are similar to crypto expert Michaël van de Poppe, who recently predicted that Bitcoin will likely consolidate for a few months. Interestingly, Van de Poppe also alluded to the Fed’s recent policies, noting that a Quantitative Easing is close, which would be bullish for Bitcoin. 

However, Hayes sounded apprehensive of the long-term effects of the recent monetary announcements, noting that they had an inflationary nature.

Therefore, although more money is expected to flow into the crypto market with the Fed’s decision, it could cause inflation to skyrocket. This would eventually lead to higher interest rates, negatively affecting risk assets like Bitcoin. 

Arthur Hayes’ Trading Strategy Going Forward

The MEXC co-founder said he would buy Solana and “doggie coins for momentum trading positions.” For long-term “shitcoin positions,” he mentioned that he would increase his allocations in Pendle while identifying other tokens that he considers undervalued. Basically, he plans to use this month to increase his exposure. 

Once he had done that, he remarked that he would wait for the market to “appreciate the inflationary nature of the recent US monetary policy announcements.”

Meanwhile, as to what doggie coins Hayes might be accumulating, Dogwifhat (WIF) is likely one of them, considering he once mentioned that he would load up on WIF as Bitcoin bottoms out. 

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

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Buy Crypto In May, Go Away: Arthur Hayes Shares His Top Altcoin Picks

In his most recent publication dated May 2, 2024, Arthur Hayes, the founder of exchange BitMEX, shared his insights into the crypto market’s recent tumultuous behavior and the broader macroeconomic signals shaping potential future trends. Titled “Mayday,” his essay directly addresses the crypto market, which has experienced significant volatility since mid-April.

Stealth Money Printing Is Commencing

Hayes begins by noting the observable distress in the crypto markets, which he attributes to a confluence of factors including the end of the US tax season, anticipatory fears about Federal Reserve policy decisions, the Bitcoin halving event, and stagnating growth in the assets under management (AUM) for US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

He interprets these factors as a necessary purge of speculative excess, stating, “The tourists will sit out the next phase on the beach… if they can afford it. Us hard motherfuckers will hodl, and if possible, accumulate more of our favorite crypto reserve assets such as Bitcoin and Ether, and/or high-beta shitcoins like Solana, Dog Wif Hat, and dare I say Dogecoin (the OG doggie coin).”

A significant portion of Hayes’ analysis focuses on the Federal Reserve’s recent adjustment to its quantitative tightening (QT) program. Previously set at a reduction of $95 billion per month, the Fed has dialed this back to $60 billion.

Hayes interprets this as a covert form of quantitative easing, injecting an additional $35 billion per month into the dollar liquidity pool. He explains, “When you combine the Interest on Reserve Balances, RRP payments, and interest payments on US Treasury debt, the reduction in QT increases the amount of stimulus provided to the global asset markets each month.”

Hayes also scrutinizes actions by the US Treasury, particularly under Secretary Janet Yellen. He discusses the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA), which outlines the expected borrowing and cash balances for upcoming quarters. For Q2 2024, the Treasury anticipates borrowing $243 billion, a figure Hayes points out is $41 billion higher than the previous forecast, due to lower-than-expected tax receipts.

He predicts this increased supply of Treasuries could lead to higher long-end rates, a situation Yellen may counter with yield curve control measures—a scenario that could catalyze a significant rally in Bitcoin and crypto prices.

Hayes touches on the failure of Republic First Bank, emphasizing the response by monetary authorities as a key indicator of systemic fragility. He criticizes the federal safety net that ensures all depositors are made whole, arguing that it masks deeper vulnerabilities within the US banking system and leads to a stealth form of money printing, as uninsured deposits are effectively guaranteed by the government. This, Hayes argues, is a fundamental misalignment that could lead to significant inflationary pressures.

Buy Crypto In May, Go Away

Hayes is candid about his investment strategies in the current environment. He advocates buying now. “I’m buying Solana and doggie coins for momentum trading positions. For longer-term shitcoin positions, I’m upping my allocations in Pendle and will identify other tokens that are ‘on sale.’ I will use the rest of May to increase my exposure. And then it’s time to set it, forget it, and wait for the market to appreciate the inflationary nature of the recent US monetary policy announcements.”

He concludes with a broad prediction that, despite the market’s recent volatility, the underlying liquidity conditions created by US monetary and fiscal policies will provide a floor for crypto prices, leading to a gradual upward trend. “While I don’t expect crypto to fully realize the recent US monetary announcements’ inflationary nature immediately, I expect prices to bottom, chop, and begin a slow grind higher,” he states, signaling his bullish outlook.

For Bitcoin, Hayes predicts that the premier cryptocurrency will recapture the key $60,000 level and then move in a range between $60,000 and $70,000 until August because of the annual summer lull.

At press time, BTC traded at $59,393.

Bitcoin price

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Buy Crypto In May, Go Away: Arthur Hayes Shares His Top Altcoin Picks

In his most recent publication dated May 2, 2024, Arthur Hayes, the founder of exchange BitMEX, shared his insights into the crypto market’s recent tumultuous behavior and the broader macroeconomic signals shaping potential future trends. Titled “Mayday,” his essay directly addresses the crypto market, which has experienced significant volatility since mid-April.

Stealth Money Printing Is Commencing

Hayes begins by noting the observable distress in the crypto markets, which he attributes to a confluence of factors including the end of the US tax season, anticipatory fears about Federal Reserve policy decisions, the Bitcoin halving event, and stagnating growth in the assets under management (AUM) for US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

He interprets these factors as a necessary purge of speculative excess, stating, “The tourists will sit out the next phase on the beach… if they can afford it. Us hard motherfuckers will hodl, and if possible, accumulate more of our favorite crypto reserve assets such as Bitcoin and Ether, and/or high-beta shitcoins like Solana, Dog Wif Hat, and dare I say Dogecoin (the OG doggie coin).”

A significant portion of Hayes’ analysis focuses on the Federal Reserve’s recent adjustment to its quantitative tightening (QT) program. Previously set at a reduction of $95 billion per month, the Fed has dialed this back to $60 billion.

Hayes interprets this as a covert form of quantitative easing, injecting an additional $35 billion per month into the dollar liquidity pool. He explains, “When you combine the Interest on Reserve Balances, RRP payments, and interest payments on US Treasury debt, the reduction in QT increases the amount of stimulus provided to the global asset markets each month.”

Hayes also scrutinizes actions by the US Treasury, particularly under Secretary Janet Yellen. He discusses the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA), which outlines the expected borrowing and cash balances for upcoming quarters. For Q2 2024, the Treasury anticipates borrowing $243 billion, a figure Hayes points out is $41 billion higher than the previous forecast, due to lower-than-expected tax receipts.

He predicts this increased supply of Treasuries could lead to higher long-end rates, a situation Yellen may counter with yield curve control measures—a scenario that could catalyze a significant rally in Bitcoin and crypto prices.

Hayes touches on the failure of Republic First Bank, emphasizing the response by monetary authorities as a key indicator of systemic fragility. He criticizes the federal safety net that ensures all depositors are made whole, arguing that it masks deeper vulnerabilities within the US banking system and leads to a stealth form of money printing, as uninsured deposits are effectively guaranteed by the government. This, Hayes argues, is a fundamental misalignment that could lead to significant inflationary pressures.

Buy Crypto In May, Go Away

Hayes is candid about his investment strategies in the current environment. He advocates buying now. “I’m buying Solana and doggie coins for momentum trading positions. For longer-term shitcoin positions, I’m upping my allocations in Pendle and will identify other tokens that are ‘on sale.’ I will use the rest of May to increase my exposure. And then it’s time to set it, forget it, and wait for the market to appreciate the inflationary nature of the recent US monetary policy announcements.”

He concludes with a broad prediction that, despite the market’s recent volatility, the underlying liquidity conditions created by US monetary and fiscal policies will provide a floor for crypto prices, leading to a gradual upward trend. “While I don’t expect crypto to fully realize the recent US monetary announcements’ inflationary nature immediately, I expect prices to bottom, chop, and begin a slow grind higher,” he states, signaling his bullish outlook.

For Bitcoin, Hayes predicts that the premier cryptocurrency will recapture the key $60,000 level and then move in a range between $60,000 and $70,000 until August because of the annual summer lull.

At press time, BTC traded at $59,393.

Bitcoin price

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Crypto Bull Run Set To Return Next Week, Predicts Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, took to X to provide a detailed analysis of the US economic landscape and its potential effects on the crypto market. With a reputation for incisive commentary and a deep understanding of both traditional and digital finance, Hayes’s insights are closely watched by industry participants.

Why The Crypto Bull Run Will Return As Soon As Monday

In a post, Hayes noted a significant increase in the Treasury General Account (TGA), which he attributed to an influx of approximately $200 billion from tax receipts. “As expected tax receipts added roughly $200bn to TGA,” Hayes stated, setting the stage for a broader discussion on potential implications for financial markets.

Hayes then shifted focus to upcoming decisions by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen concerning the management of the TGA. With a tone mixing respect and sternness, he outlined several potential scenarios, each with profound implications for market liquidity. “Forget about the May Fed meeting. The 2Q24 refunding announcement comes out next week. What games will [Janet] Yellen play, here are some options,” Hayes remarked.

Firstly, he suggested that by “stopping issuing treasuries by running down the TGA to zero,” Yellen could unleash a $1 trillion liquidity injection into the economy. This strategy would involve using the accumulated funds in the TGA for federal spending without issuing new debt, thus directly boosting the money supply.

Secondly, Hayes speculated about “shifting more borrowing to T-bills, which removes money from RRP,” resulting in a $400 billion liquidity boost. This maneuver would involve the Treasury opting for shorter-duration debt instruments, which typically carry lower interest rates but increase the turnover of government securities. This could potentially draw funds away from the overnight reverse repo market, where financial institutions temporarily park their excess cash.

Combining these two approaches, according to Hayes, could lead to “a $1.4 trillion injection of liquidity” if Yellen decides to both cease long-term bond issuance and ramp up the issuance of bills while depleting both TGA and RRP accounts. Hayes emphatically noted, “The Fed is irrelevant, Yellen is a bad bitch, you best respect her.” This statement underscores his belief in the significant impact of Treasury actions over Federal Reserve policies in the current economic setup.

Hayes predicted that these actions could lead to a bullish response in the stock market and, more crucially, a rapid acceleration in the crypto market. “If any of these three options happen, expect a rally in stonks and most importantly a re-acceleration of the crypto bull market,” he explained.

The implications of such fiscal strategies are significant. Increased liquidity typically diminishes the appeal of low-yield investments like bonds and encourages the pursuit of higher returns in riskier assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. Moreover, a shift in market sentiment toward ‘risk-on’ could see substantial capital flows into the crypto space, perceived as a high-growth, albeit volatile, investment frontier.

In conclusion, Hayes’ analysis suggests that the coming week – the refunding announcement comes on Monday, April 29 – could be critical for market watchers. His perspective, drawing from deep financial expertise, points to a possible pivotal shift in US fiscal policy that could ripple through global markets. For crypto investors, these developments could signal important movements, underlining the need for vigilance and readiness to respond to new economic signals.

At press time, BTC traded at $64,483.

Bitcoin price

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How To Outperform In Crypto: Arthur Hayes’ ‘Left Curve’ Strategy

In his latest essay, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, introduced a bold investment philosophy he calls the “Left Curve.” This strategy diverges sharply from traditional investment approaches typically adopted during bull markets in the crypto world. Hayes’ essay serves not only as an investment manifesto but also as a critique of conventional financial wisdom, encouraging investors to maximize their returns by embracing more aggressive tactics.

Crypto Bull Run Just Got Started

Hayes begins by criticizing the common investor mentality that prevails during bull markets, particularly the tendency to revert to conservative strategies after initial gains. He argues that many investors, despite having made profitable decisions, fail to capitalize fully on bull markets by selling their holdings too soon—particularly when they convert high-performing cryptocurrencies into fiat currencies.

“Some of you think you are masters of the universe right now because you bought Solana sub $10 and sold it at $200,” he states, challenging the notion that such actions demonstrate market mastery. Instead, Hayes promotes a strategy of sustained investment and accumulation, particularly in Bitcoin, which he refers to as “the hardest money ever created.”

A central thesis of Hayes’ argument is the critique of fiat currency as a safe haven for profits taken from cryptocurrency investments. “If you sold shitcoins for fiat that you don’t immediately need for living expenses, you are fucking up,” Hayes bluntly asserts.

He discusses the inherent weaknesses of fiat money, primarily its susceptibility to inflation and devaluation through endless cycles of printing by central banks. “Fiat will continue to be printed ad infinitum until the system resets,” he predicts, suggesting that fiat currencies are inherently unstable storage of value compared to cryptocurrencies.

Hayes extends his analysis to the macroeconomic factors influencing cryptocurrency markets. He describes how major economies like the US, China, the European Union, and Japan are debasing their currencies to manage national debt levels.

This macroeconomic maneuvering, according to Hayes, is inadvertently setting the stage for cryptocurrencies to rise. He points out the increasing adoption of Bitcoin ETFs in the US, UK, and Hong Kong markets as a tool for institutional and retail investors to hedge against fiat depreciation.

This part of his analysis underscores a broader acceptance of cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class in traditional investment circles, powered by the realization that traditional financial systems are struggling under the weight of unsustainable fiscal policies.

Hayes also delves into the strategic aspects of market timing, particularly around events known to influence market dynamics, such as US tax payment deadlines and Bitcoin halving. He notes:

As we exit the window of weakness that I forecasted would occur due to April 15th US tax payments and the Bitcoin halving, I want to remind readers why the bull market will continue and prices will get sillier on the upside.

This observation suggests that understanding these cyclic events can provide strategic entry and exit points for maximizing investment returns. Emphasizing psychological resilience, Hayes encourages investors to adopt a mindset that resists the conventional impulse to cash out during brief market rallies. “At this moment, I will resist the urge to take chips off the table. I will encourage myself to add more to the winners,” he advises, promoting a long-term view of investment in cryptocurrencies.

This approach, according to Hayes, is essential for realizing the full potential of crypto investments, particularly in a market characterized by high volatility and rapid gains. In conclusion, Hayes’ “Left Curve” philosophy is more than just an investment strategy; it is a comprehensive approach that encompasses understanding macroeconomic trends, psychological resilience, and strategic market timing.

His essay serves as a guide for investors looking to navigate the complexities of crypto markets with a bold, assertive strategy that challenges traditional financial doctrines.

At press time, BTC traded at $66,789.

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Crypto Expert Unveils Most Undervalued Altcoin Right Now

Charles Edwards, the founder of crypto hedge fund Capriole Investments, spotlighted what he believes to be the most undervalued altcoin at the moment. Via a statement on X, Edwards pointed to PENDLE, a token operating within the DeFi space, citing its exceptional total value locked (TVL) and market cap as primary indicators of its undervaluation.

“Perhaps the most undervalued alt right now is PENDLE. Massive $4.6B TVL (about 5% of entire crypto world’s TVL) and market cap just 14% of its TVL. Huge flywheel effects with Ethena also. Ludacris growth,” Edwards remarked, sharing the total value locked (TVL) chart by DefiLlama.

PENDLE TVL

Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, also recently shared his optimism about PENDLE, reinforcing its potential within the DeFi sector with an enthusiastic, “The future of DEFI is PENDLE. Yachtzee bitches.”

Why Is PENDLE Crypto’s Hottest Altcoin?

Since the start of January, PENDLE has seen a remarkable 590% increase in price, with a 220% spike in just the last four weeks alone, making it one of the top-performing assets in the broader cryptocurrency market. This surge aligns with a significant rise in Pendle’s TVL, which escalated from just under $240 million at the beginning of January to over $4.6 billion recently.

Delving into the reasons behind PENDLE’s impressive trajectory, crypto researcher 100y.eth offered a detailed explanation on X, focusing on the token’s distinct utilities and tokenomics. “Pendle Finance revolutionizes DeFi by allowing the tokenization and separation of yield-bearing tokens into PT (Principal) and YT (Yield), tradable on Pendle’s AMM. This innovation is at the core of Pendle’s current popularity,” the researcher stated.

Further shedding light on the factors driving PENDLE’s accumulation, 100y.eth referred to significant whale activity. “According to lookonchain, whales are still in the phase of accumulating PENDLE, a testament to their belief in its long-term value,” the researcher noted, citing substantial withdrawals from exchanges as indicative of investor confidence.

The essence of PENDLE’s appeal lies in its vePENDLE system, which enhances its governance model and incentivizes long-term holding. “Magic resides in vePENDLE. By locking PENDLE, users receive vePENDLE, engaging more deeply with the ecosystem. This mechanism not only fosters community governance but also amplifies rewards for liquidity providers,” the researcher added.

VePENDLE holders play a pivotal role in determining liquidity dynamics through their voting power, effectively channeling incentives to favored LP pools. “As of April 10, the rswETH Pool led with the most PENDLE votes, demonstrating the active engagement of our community in governance processes,” highlighted the discussion on yield dynamics and governance participation.

The synergy between recent market developments and Pendle’s innovative tokenomics is generating unprecedented yield opportunities. “With the frenzy around LRT and Ethena, we’re seeing huge yields, including swap fees, accruing to vePENDLE holders. Voter APYs in popular pools have soared from 100 to 400%, a clear indication of Pendle’s growing allure,” the researcher elaborated.

At press time, PENDLE traded at $7.37.

PENDLE price

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Arthur Hayes Sells All His Holdings Of This Altcoin, How Did The Price React?

Arthur Hayes, the founder of the crypto exchange BitMEX, recently made a move on an altcoin he had held since 2022. This move saw the transfer of over 230,000 GMX tokens to Wintermute Trading, seemingly making a profit of $3.2 million.

Altcoin Dropped By Its Largest Personal Holder

Blockchain research platform Lookonchain revealed that Arthur Hayes seemingly sold his GMX holdings yesterday. Hayes was the largest holder of GMX, the native token of decentralized perpetual exchange GMX.

Throughout 2022, the BitMEX founder spent a total of 3,383 ETH, worth $5.17 million, to buy 200,581 GMX tokens. In 2023, Hayes spent another 60 ETH to buy 2,328 GMX, around $105,000.

From July to December 2023, Hayes withdrew 215,428 GMX tokens from centralized exchanges (CEX). By the end of 2023, he had bought 218,337 GMX for $6.5 million from CEX and decentralized exchange (DEX) Uniswap.

As of April 7, 2024, Hayes had GMX holdings worth $9.7 million, per Lookonchain data. The post revealed that Hayes had unstaked all 237,672 tokens and transferred them to an address linked to crypto algorithmic trading firm Wintermute Trading.

The transaction sparked rumors of a possible token sale by the former CEO of BitMEX. According to the report, the average cost of buying through Haye’s accumulation phase is around $29.74.  After selling, Hayes’s profits would total over $3.2 million.

GMX investors reacted to the news, suggesting that “nothing changed” and the altcoin was “in that buy zone again.”

Did Arthur Hayes Accept Capitulation?

Crypto analyst and trader JJcycles suggested that the transaction looked like “Hayes capitulation.” Later, the trader speculated why the GMX price didn’t “tank hard” after one of its largest personal holders sold his tokens.

To the analyst, the incident looked “like the price of ETH during the FTX debacle.” Based on his perception, the trader decided to buy more GMX tokens.

In a later post, the analyst clarified what he meant with his previous statement. According to him, GMX’s capitulation looks like ETH’s capitulation in 2023.

As reported by NewsBTC, the number of Ethereum traders selling at a loss increased around August 2023. ETH’s price bounced back from the capitulation and has continued an upward trajectory ever since.

Per the analyst charts, GMX appears to be showing an ascending triangle pattern at writing time, like the one made by ETH during its capitulation. To the trader, this suggests GMX could begin an upward trajectory like ETH.

GMX Price Reaction

The GMX token displays red numbers in most timeframes, as it’s currently 55.5% lower than its all-time high (ATH) of $91.07. The token registers a 7.9%, 28.9%, and 48.9% price drop on the weekly, monthly, and yearly timeframes.

After the news of Hayes’ transaction broke, the price went from hovering between the $40.8-$40.7 price range to $37.1, plunging 9% in just an hour.

Nonetheless, the altcoin quickly started to recover from the initial dip.  At the time of writing, GMX is trading at $40.47, a 1% drop from 24 hours ago. Notably, the token’s market activity skyrocketed 467.6% in the last day, with a daily trading volume of $54.77 million.

Altcoin, GMX, GMXUSDT, crypto

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Forget Bitcoin, This Billionaire Is Betting Big On Solana For 2024

In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, is painting an optimistic picture for the potential recovery and growth of Solana in the crypto market. Known for his adept navigation through market fluctuations, Hayes recently shed light on Solana’s positive trajectory, emerging from the shadows cast by the downfall and legal entanglements of FTX.

Solana (SOL), once the favorite of the now-convicted founder Sam Bankman-Fried, had faced uncertain speculations about its destiny in the aftermath of the FTX collapse. However, Hayes’ sanguine remarks have reignited interest in the network’s future possibilities.

With a history of accurate market predictions, Hayes divulged his investment strategy in a recent essay. Within it, he explored the potential downturn of Bitcoin (BTC) and his decision to divest some tokens to minimize losses, including Solana and Bonk tokens.

Solana Recovery Sparks Hayes’ Optimism For Strategic Altcoin Investments

Hayes envisions a robust investment in Solana and various altcoins if Bitcoin’s price dips below $35,000, signaling his confidence in Solana’s prospective recovery and growth.

Solana’s market performance has been marked by notable price swings. Following a bullish surge in late 2023, the cryptocurrency experienced a correction in early 2024 but has showcased resilience, maintaining a price indicative of investor trust.

Hayes’ earlier bullish comments on Solana have coincided with a price uptick, adding credibility to his positive outlook. His recent commentary has sparked renewed optimism in the crypto community regarding Solana’s potential, particularly in the aftermath of the FTX catastrophe.

Emphasizing Solana’s promise, Hayes took to his social media platforms to express his bullish sentiments, sharing a chart illustrating the cryptocurrency’s price movements. The post swiftly gained traction, proposing a strategic approach to rejuvenating the Solana market, especially in the face of potential turbulence in the U.S. banking system.

SOL Rollercoaster: From Correction To Bullish Optimism

Solana’s journey in the market has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows. Commencing from a modest position in October 2023, SOL soared to impressive heights by Christmas before undergoing a correction with the onset of the new year. Nevertheless, the digital currency has displayed resilience, charting a course that hints at potential recovery and growth.

The former BitMEX big boss Hayes is expressing optimism about Solana’s recovery and growth potential. His bullish stance, coupled with his market acumen and past successful predictions, has reignited interest and hope within the crypto community regarding Solana’s future prospects.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Set For Weekend Rally Amid New Banking Crisis: Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, has offered an in-depth analysis of the current financial landscape and its potential impact on Bitcoin, especially in light of the recent challenges faced by New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) and the broader banking sector.

Hayes’s analysis draws on the complex interplay between macroeconomic policies, banking sector health, and the cryptocurrency market. His comments are particularly insightful given the recent developments with NYCB. The bank’s stock plummeted by 46% due to an unexpected loss and a substantial dividend cut, which was primarily attributed to a tenfold increase in loan loss reserves, far exceeding estimates.

This incident raised red flags about the stability and exposure of US regional banks, particularly in the real estate sector, which is known to be cyclically sensitive and vulnerable to economic downturns. The stock market reacted negatively to these developments, with regional US bank stocks also declining due to NYCB’s performance.

Weekend Rally Ahead For Bitcoin?

Hayes explicitly stated, “Jaypow [Jerome Powell] and Bad Burl Yellen [Janet Yellen] will be printing money very soon. NYCB annc a ‘surprise’ loss driven by loan loss reserves rising 10x vs. estimates. Guess the banks ain’t fixed.” This comment underscores the persisting fragility of the banking sector, still reeling from the shocks of the 2023 banking crisis. He added, “10-yr and 2-yr yields plunged, signaling the market expects some sort of renewed bankster bailout to fix the rot.”

Furthermore, Hayes highlighted the impending conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which was introduced in response to the 2023 banking crisis. The BTFP was a critical instrument in providing liquidity to banks, allowing them to use a wider range of collateral for borrowing.

Hayes anticipates market turbulence leading to the Fed possibly reinstating the BTFP or introducing similar measures. In a recent statement, he noted, “If my forecast is correct, the market will bankrupt a few banks within that period, forcing the Fed into cutting rates and announcing the resumption of the BTFP.” This scenario, he argues, would create a liquidity injection that could buoy cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin​​.

In his latest post on X, Hayes drew parallels to the cryptocurrency’s performance during the March 2023 banking crisis. He predicts a similar trajectory, suggesting a brief dip followed by a significant rally:

Expect BTC to swoon a bit, but if NYCB and a few others dump into the weekend, expect a new bailout right quick. Then BTC off to the races just like March ’23 price action. […] I think it might be time to get back on the train fam. Maybe after a few US banks bite the dust this weekend.

During the March crisis, Bitcoin’s value jumped over 40%, a reaction attributed to its perceived role as a digital gold or a safe-haven asset amid financial instability​​. On a longer time horizon and with the Great Financial Crisis from 2008 in mind, he further argued, “What did the Fed and Treasury do last time US property prices plunged and bankrupted banks globally? Money Printer Go Brrrr. BTC = $1 million. Yachtzee.”

At press time, BTC traded at $42,232.

Bitcoin price

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Real Reasons For Bitcoin Price Crash Revealed, Not GBTC: Arthur Hayes

In his latest essay, Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, articulates a contrarian perspective on the recent downturn in Bitcoin’s price, refuting the mainstream narrative that attributes the decline to outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Instead, Hayes points to macroeconomic maneuvers and monetary policy shifts as the real drivers behind Bitcoin’s volatility.

Monetary Policy And Market Reactions

Hayes kickstarts his analysis by shedding light on the US Treasury’s recent strategic shift in borrowing, a decision announced by Janet Yellen on November 1. This pivot towards Treasury bills (T-bills) has triggered a substantial liquidity injection, compelling money market funds to reallocate their investments from the Fed’s Reverse Repo Program (RRP) to these T-bills, offering higher yields.

Hayes articulates the significance of this move, stating, “Yellen acted by shifting her department’s borrowing to T-bills, thus adding hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of liquidity so far.” However, he contrasts this tangible financial maneuver with the Federal Reserve’s mere rhetoric about future rate cuts and the tapering of quantitative tightening (QT), pointing out that these discussions have not translated into actual monetary stimulus.

While the traditional financial markets, particularly the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, responded positively to these developments, Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s recent price trajectory serves as a more accurate barometer of the underlying economic currents. He remarks, “The real smoke alarm for the direction of dollar liquidity, Bitcoin, is throwing a cautionary sign.”

He notes the cryptocurrency’s decline from its peak and correlates it with the fluctuations in the yield of the 2-year US Treasury, suggesting a deeper economic interplay at work. “Coinciding with Bitcoin’s local high, the 2-year US Treasury yield hit a local low of 4.14% in mid-January and is now marching upwards,” Hayes remarked.

Dissecting True Reasons Behind The Bitcoin Dip

Addressing the narrative surrounding GBTC, Hayes emphatically dismisses the notion that outflows from GBTC are the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s price movements. He clarifies, “The argument for Bitcoin’s recent dump is the outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). That argument is bogus because when you net the outflows from GBTC against the inflows into the newly listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, the result is, as of January 22nd, a net inflow of $820 million.”

This realization shifts the focus to economic mechanisms at play. The crux of Hayes’s argument lies in the anticipation surrounding the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)‘s expiration and the Federal Reserve’s hesitancy to adjust interest rates to a range that would alleviate the financial strain on smaller, non-Too-Big-to-Fail (TBTF) banks.

Hayes elucidates, “Until rates are reduced to the aforementioned levels, there is no way these banks can survive without the government support provided via the BTFP.” He predicts a looming mini-financial crisis in the event of the BTFP’s cessation, which he believes will compel the Federal Reserve to pivot from rhetoric to tangible action—namely, rate cuts, a tapering of QT, and potentially a resumption of quantitative easing (QE).

“I believe Bitcoin will dip before the BTFP renewal decision on March 12th. I didn’t expect it to happen so soon, but I think Bitcoin will find a local bottom between $30,000 and $35,000. As the SPX and NDX dump due to a mini financial crisis in March, Bitcoin will rise as it will front-run the eventual conversion of rate cuts and money printing talk on behalf of the Fed into the action of pressing that Brrrr button,” Hayes writes.

Strategic Trading Moves In A Turbulent Market

In a revealing glimpse into his tactical trading strategies, Hayes shares his approach to navigating the tumultuous market landscape. He discloses his positions, including the purchase of puts and the strategic adjustment of his BTC holdings. He concludes:

A 30% correction from the ETF approval high of $48,000 is $33,600. Therefore, I believe Bitcoin forms support between $30,0000 to $35,000. That is why I purchased 29 March 2024 $35,000 strike puts. […] Bitcoin and crypto in general are the last freely traded markets globally. As such, they will anticipate changes in dollar liquidity before the manipulated TradFi fiat stock and bond markets. Bitcoin is telling us to look for Yellen and not Talkin’.

At press time, BTC traded at $39,963.

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Bitcoin Price “Mad Heavy,” Why A Detour To $30,000 Might Be Imminent

The Bitcoin price took a downside turn over the weekend and seems ready to re-test critical support levels. The downside price action was triggered by a spike in selling pressure following the approval of Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in the US.

As of this writing, the Bitcoin price trades at $40,900 with a 2% loss in the past 24 hours. Over the last week, these losses doubled, with other assets in the crypto top 10 by market underperforming, except for Dogecoin (DOGE), which still records a 4% profit in the same period.

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Bitcoin Price Loses Steam, How Low Can BTC Go?

Via the social media platform X, the founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, shared a forecast for the Bitcoin price. According to Hayes, BTC seems poised to lose its current levels.

The crypto founder and trader claims that the low timeframe price action will likely push Bitcoin below $40,000 and potentially below $35,000 if bulls fail to defend the higher area around these levels.

The main issue regarding the current market structure rests upon the liquidity in the Bitcoin market. As seen in the chart below and as pointed out by Hayes, the liquidity in the BTC market has been trending to the downside since the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved.

As a result, and due to the constant selling pressure from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), the market has been trending to the downside and could maintain this course until the next major macroeconomic event.

On the above, the BitMEX founder stated:

Why has $SPX and $BTC stopped moving up together post US BTC ETF launch? Both are love more $ liq, which one is right about the future? $BTC is telling us that there are hiccups ahead for $ liq, next signpost is 31st Jan US Treasury refunding annc (announcement).

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If Bitcoin Goes South, What Levels Could Hold The Line?

A pseudonym crypto analyst showed a cluster of buying orders stacked from the $38,819 to the $40,000 levels in a separate report. In other words, these levels should present opposition and seem like BTC’s biggest opportunity to bounce back, at least on low timeframes.

In that sense, the analyst stated the following, anticipating a possible short-term recovery, and showing the image below:

Some big zones starting to build up around 41K & 42K. Pretty certain we’ll at least take out that top part somewhere next week. Will see if price sustains after that.

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Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

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Analyst Foresees Bitcoin Downtrend Until GBTC Is Liquidated

Chris J Terry, a cryptocurrency analyst and enthusiast, has revealed his insights on the price action of Bitcoin, predicting a continuous decline in the price of the crypto asset.

Analyst Says Bitcoin Will Continue To Drop

The crypto analyst shared his insights regarding Bitcoin with the cryptocurrency community on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), anticipating a possible “continuation of a flat or declining trend.”

He highlighted that the downtrend will continue until Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is fully “liquidated.” According to him, the liquidation will be possible with a whopping $25 billion worth of selling activity over the next few weeks.

Terry cites Grayscale’s choice to keep Bitcoin ETF fees at 1.5% as the cause of what he sees to be the “biggest strategic error” in cryptocurrency history. This implies that Grayscale’s action might have a long-term impact on the crypto market and may prevent wider adoption.

The post read:

Looks like the BTC price will continue flat/down until GBTC is liquidated, $25B of selling over the next few weeks. Grayscale decision to keep ETF fees at 1.5% will go down as the biggest strategic error in crypto history. Greedy idiots.

His analysis emphasizes how investment vehicles are interconnected and how this affects the state of the cryptocurrency market as a whole. However, this has attracted disbelief from a few famous figures in the community.

One of the figures who has expressed disbelief is Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz. He asserted that he “disagrees” with Chris Terry’s analysis because although Novogratz experts some selling pressure activity, he believes investors will move to other ETFs, especially supporting BTCO. Novogratz also pointed out that the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) is his favorite among the products.

Furthermore, Novogratz highlights the significance of maintaining perspective in light of transient market conditions. He noted that the latest development will facilitate older investors’ or boomers’ entry into the crypto landscape.

In addition, he has highlighted the potential for enhanced leverage by having 4×5 exposure to Bitcoin via BTCO. He then shared an optimistic look, noting that “BTC will go higher in the next six months after this indigestion.”

BTC Sees $25 Million Outflows 

A recent report from Coinshares has revealed that Bitcoin witnessed an outflow of a whopping $25 million. Coinshares shared the information in its most recent weekly “Digital Asset Fund Flows.”

It also noted a massive $11.8 billion in BTC trading volume last week. According to Coinshares, this is seven times more than the average weekly trading activity recorded in 2023.

There were notable withdrawals from digital asset investment products last week, totaling about $24.7 million. Notably, this spike in trading activity indicates that ETFs account for 63% of all Bitcoin volumes on reliable exchanges.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $40,827, indicating a decline of 2.16% in the past day. Despite the price drop, its trading volume is currently up by over 81% in the last 24 hours.

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These Events Will Create A Bitcoin Crash In March: Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, in his latest essay, presents a foreboding prediction for the Bitcoin market in March, anticipating a severe correction of 30-40%. His detailed analysis, rooted in a deep understanding of market dynamics, outlines the complexities and driving factors behind this expected crash, respectively healthy but deep correction.

Hayes begins his discourse with a cautionary reminder of the nascent state of the crypto bull market, warning enthusiasts not to be overly carried away. “The crypto bull market is in its early stages, and we must not get carried away with our enthusiasm,” he says, highlighting the uncertain journey towards the inevitable collapse of the fiat financial system.

Why The Bitcoin Price Could Fall 40% In March

His prediction revolves around three key financial events and indicators converging in March. Hayes first points to the anticipated decline in the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) Balance to a critical level of $200 billion, a scenario he believes will trigger market anxiety about future sources of dollar liquidity. He describes this threshold as a moment of reckoning, “When this number gets close to zero… the market will wonder what is next,” underscoring the gravity of this anticipated development.

The second pivotal factor is the fate of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which is due to expire on March 12th. Hayes portrays this as a significant test for the financial system, speculating on the decision-making process of the US Treasury in the face of potential liquidity crises among banks. He articulates the market’s anticipatory stance, suggesting that “the market will start getting inquisitive many weeks before about whether or not the banks will continue receiving this lifeline.”

The final piece in Hayes’ forecast is the Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 20th, where a rate cut is expected. This decision, in Hayes’ view, is crucial for setting market expectations and influencing the dynamics surrounding dollar liquidity provision by the Fed and the US Treasury Department.

Hayes then delves deeper into his tactical trading strategy in response to these events, detailing his plans to short the crypto market using Bitcoin puts. He articulates his approach, saying, “I will look to buy a sizable put option position on Bitcoin around this time,” signaling his preparedness to leverage the anticipated market shift.

An important aspect of Hayes’ analysis is the potential impact of the US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). He argues that the anticipation of substantial fiat capital inflows into these spot ETFs could initially propel Bitcoin’s price to soaring highs. However, he warns that this upsurge could be followed by a dramatic correction, exacerbated by a liquidity squeeze.

“Imagine if the anticipation of hundreds of billions of fiat flowing into these ETFs at a future date propels Bitcoin above $60,000,” he says, illustrating the potential for a steep decline. Hayes explains that a market already heightened by ETF speculation would be particularly vulnerable to a sharp correction, potentially worsening the downturn to 30-40% in the event of a liquidity crunch.

How Hayes Will Trade This Scenario

Hayes then shifts to discuss his tactical trading decisions in response to these indicators. He shares his plan to initially short the crypto market using Bitcoin puts, followed by a return to selling US Treasury bills and acquiring more Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. In explaining his approach, Hayes states, “I will look to buy a sizable put option position on Bitcoin around this time,” indicating his readiness to capitalize on the predicted market downturn.

Furthermore, Hayes details his strategy for Bitcoin puts, explaining the rationale behind choosing puts expiring on June 28th and his approach to selecting the strike price. He emphasizes the importance of timing and market dynamics, noting, “I expect Bitcoin to experience a healthy […] correction from whatever level it has attained by early March.”

In his conclusion, Hayes contemplates various scenarios that could play out differently from his predictions. He considers the implications of a slower decline in the RRP, a potential extension of the BTFP by Yellen, or alternative outcomes of the Fed’s March meeting. He notes that each of these scenarios could lead to different market behaviors, necessitating adjustments in his trading approach.

At press time, BTC traded at $43,940.

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Ethereum Price To Reach $5,000, BitMex Founder Predicts

BitMex founder Arthur Hayes has revealed that he is diverting his interest toward Ethereum (ETH) while disclosing a bold prediction for the crypto asset.

Arthur Hayes Doubling Down On Ethereum

Arthur Hayes recently took to X (formerly Twitter) to share his optimism and prediction about the future of Ethereum, and the post has since caused quite a stir in the entire cryptocurrency community.

Renowned for his perceptive market analysis, Hayes claimed to have had a revelation on ETH during one of his meditations, and this prompted him to significantly alter his cryptocurrency holdings. He sarcastically asserted in the X post to have gotten the direction from the Lord. 

Following this supposed heavenly direction, Hayes allegedly sold his Solana holdings and increased his stake in Ethereum. In addition, he has predicted a spike that would take the price of the cryptocurrency asset to an astounding $5,000.

He further conveyed his love and appreciation for Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum. Hayes called Vitalik an Archangel while doing so.

Hayes’ evaluation of the market dynamics might have played a role in his choice to divert from Solana to Ethereum. In another X post, Arthur Hayes shared a chart of Ethereum to back up his predictions. The crypto exchange founder has urged the crypto community to “get down” on the digital asset.

The BitMex founder’s projections come after his previous call, in which he predicted that Solana’s price would hit $100. Hayes’ prediction has appeared to be almost accurate, as the digital asset’s price has recently reached a peak of $99.

Since mid-December SOL has been demonstrating a rally, increasing by an astounding 350%. Despite the fact that Solana is displaying an upward trajectory, Hayes seems to think that Ethereum still has the potential to outperform SOL.

Glassnode Co-Founders Give Next Target For The Crypto Asset

Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, cofounders of Glassnode and collectively known on X as Negentropic, have highlighted the next target for Ethereum. According to the cofounders, the next target for ETH is $2,500 and has urged the community to keep an eye on this level.

Negentropic asserted that the asset reaching the $2,500 target will be triggered by market enthusiasm. Another target identified by the founders is $2,700, which ETH will attain by continuous ambitious push.

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The co-founders also highlighted a support level at $2,100, which was once a resistance level but now a key zone. However, Negentropic pointed out that the level has now turned out to be critical for short-term rebounds. In addition, they asserted that if ETH ends up breaching the support level, it might activate the 50-Day EMA.

As of the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,307, indicating a 1.30% increase in the past 24 hours. Its trading volume has increased by 19% to $16,690,793,321, its market capitalization has increased by 1.31% to $277,454,559,883.

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