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Grayscale Battling Outflows And Lower-Cost ETFs, Q1 Revenue Stays Flat At $156M

Grayscale Investments, the issuer of one of the recently approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, saw flat revenues in the first quarter of the year due to its decision to maintain fees on its flagship Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). 

Grayscale Exceeds Expectations Despite Outflows

According to a shareholder letter from its parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG), the operator of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust recorded $156 million in revenue, showing little change from the previous quarter.

Since the GBTC trust’s conversion to an ETF in January, Grayscale has seen outflows of about $17.4 billion as investors appear to have shifted their assets to new, lower-cost funds offered by BlackRock and Fidelity, the leaders in the US ETF race in terms of inflows recorded since January. 

While GBTC charges a 1.5% management fee, many of its competitors charge less than 0.3%, leading to outflows. In response, Grayscale announced plans in March to seek approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to spin off some of Grayscale’s assets into a new, lower-fee “Bitcoin Mini Trust.” 

Despite the outflows, the Q1 revenue attributable to GBTC exceeded Grayscale’s expectations. The firm had previously anticipated outflows due to increased competition under the ETF wrapper. Grayscale previously charged a 2% sponsorship fee before the trust was converted. 

The flat revenue was also attributed to higher average Bitcoin and Ethereum prices and a decrease in assets under management (AUM).

In contrast to Grayscale’s performance, all US spot Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed a total net inflow of over $11 billion thus far. However, demand for these ETFs has recently declined amidst tightening financial conditions in the US, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) faces the challenge of addressing persistent inflation.

DCG Reports 11% Q1 Revenue Increase

Digital Currency Group, founded by Barry Silbert and the parent company of Grayscale, reported an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q1 revenue to $229 million, primarily due to higher asset prices. 

However, revenue growth lagged behind Bitcoin’s price appreciation, which rose more than 60% during the same period. In its letter, DCG attributed this disparity to lower GBTC sponsor fees, redemptions, and steady mining revenues at its Foundry subsidiary.

Foundry, DCG’s mining subsidiary, experienced a sequential revenue increase of 35%, propelled by staking and equipment sales revenue. Meanwhile, Luno, the company’s crypto exchange subsidiary, witnessed a 46% quarter-over-quarter sales boost, driven by a significant surge in trading volume.

Grayscale

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $62,100 and has recently encountered significant price volatility. These price swings have failed to establish a stable position above crucial price thresholds.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF Readies For Stellar Debut, Expected To Outshine $125M US Launch

The eagerly anticipated Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF market is scheduled to commence trading on Tuesday, marking a significant milestone in the increasing adoption of the leading cryptocurrency and building upon the success of the US ETF market. 

With their approval, the newly regulated index funds are poised for a noteworthy debut, surpassing the first-day inflows in the United States.

HK Bitcoin ETF Market Poised For Record-Breaking Debut

Zhu Haokang, the Digital Asset Management Supervisor and Family Wealth Supervisor at Warsaw Fund expressed great confidence in the trading volume of Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs on its inaugural day.

This volume exceeded the scale achieved during the US launch on January 10th of this year, which amounted to over 125 million US dollars. 

Haokang further stated that Huaxia, one of the three ETF issuers, is confident in becoming the largest ETF issuer on the first day of trading. At the same time, OSL, a digital asset platform, has already completed the initial fundraising with two funds, including Huaxia. 

Furthermore, the capital inflow during the Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETF’s first-day listing transaction has surpassed that of the US spot ETF market. 

According to Haokang, this difference can be attributed to two factors: the purchase and redemption of spot and in-kind transactions, which are unavailable in the US spot Bitcoin ETF.

Unprecedented Investment Options

One unique aspect of the China Summer Fund’s Hong Kong spot ETF is its incorporation of Hong Kong dollars, US dollars, and dual counter offers (RMB counters), distinguishing it from the other two offerings. 

Additionally, the fund features a non-listed share alongside the listed share, further setting it apart from its counterparts. Given the physical purchase method, investors, including Bitcoin miners, can directly acquire the Hong Kong virtual asset spot ETF using the Bitcoin they already hold. 

Moreover, outreach efforts have reportedly been made to attract investors from countries and regions without ETF offerings, such as Singapore and the Middle East, generating significant interest.

Despite the substantial market size of the current US spot Bitcoin ETF market, Hong Kong’s utilization of cash and in-kind subscriptions, coupled with the appeal of open trading during Asian market hours, is expected to attract numerous American investors, according to Haokang. 

Mainland Chinese Investors Restricted

Wayne Huang, OSL ETF and Trusteeship Business Manager, highlighted that Victory Securities could facilitate physical purchases, and the winning securities in China can also leverage OSL’s support. 

Three vouchers enable physical purchases, with more expected to follow suit. Following the ETF’s listing, various voucher chambers of commerce are likely to participate, increasing the overall ecosystem of the Bitcoin ETF market in May.

On the other hand, Zhu Haokang also clarified that mainland Chinese investors are currently restricted from investing in Hong Kong’s spot ETF market. However, qualified investors, institutional investors, retail investors, and qualified international investors in Hong Kong can participate in the spot ETF race. 

Individuals seeking further details are advised to consult voucher providers and sales channels while closely monitoring potential regulatory adjustments and the development of a specific regulatory framework in the future.

Bitcoin ETF

Currently, BTC is trading at $63,000 after failing to consolidate above the key $66,000 level in recent days. However, the launch of the ETF market in Hong Kong is expected to significantly impact the price of BTC in the long run. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitwise CIO Unveils 5 Major Forecasts For Bitcoin 2028 Halving, Anticipates A 280% Price Surge

Bitwise Chief Information Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan recently shared five interesting predictions for the next Halving of the Bitcoin (BTC) network, scheduled for 2028. In a comprehensive report, Hougan sheds light on the potential transformations for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

New Investors And ETFs As Catalysts

One of Hougan’s key predictions is that Bitcoin’s volatility will significantly decline by 50%. He argues that the entry of new investors through the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market will drive this decline. 

Hougan said that as financial advisors, family offices, and institutions enter the Bitcoin market, their different investment behaviors – such as portfolio rebalancing and steady drip investments – could introduce counter-cyclical flows, ultimately dampening Bitcoin’s volatility.

Hougan’s second prediction revolves around the allocation of Bitcoin in portfolios. He believes that 5% allocations to Bitcoin will become commonplace in target-date portfolios. As BTC’s volatility decreases and becomes more attractive to institutional investors, Hougan expects a rise in typical portfolio allocations. 

The Bitwise CIO predicts that Bitcoin ETFs will attract over $200 billion in inflows. He highlights their impressive growth and cites their status as the fastest-growing new ETF category of all time. 

Hougan suggests that the ETF market is still in its early stages, with national wirehouses and institutions just beginning their due diligence. Drawing parallels with the rise of gold ETFs, which experienced year-after-year growth in net flows, he anticipates a similar trend for Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin Price Path Toward $250,000

In an intriguing projection, Hougan suggests that central banks will allocate funds to Bitcoin before the next Halving event. He notes that central banks have historically been significant investors in gold, accumulating substantial amounts of the metal. 

However, with Bitcoin’s characteristics as non-debt money and its functional advantages over gold regarding payments and settlement, Hougan believes central banks will be increasingly drawn to Bitcoin. Hougan further noted on this matter:

There is also an element of game theory here. A major central bank adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset would be a game-changer for Bitcoin and, I believe, would contribute to a dramatic increase in prices. Will one central bank try to front-run the others? 

Hougan’s final prediction revolves around Bitcoin’s price. He forecasts that Bitcoin will trade above $250,000 by 2028, an increase of nearly 280% from current levels. 

The Bitwise CIO attributes Bitcoin’s previous exponential growth to its transition from a speculative asset to one with real-world utility. 

Factors such as declining volatility, improved custody options, low correlations to traditional stocks, enhanced accessibility through ETFs, and growing institutional adoption all contribute to Hougan’s optimism regarding Bitcoin’s future progress. Hougan concluded by stating:

With the ETFs launched and gathering assets—and major Wall Street firms lining up behind bitcoin—I suspect the asset will continue to move further into the mainstream. At $250,000, bitcoin would be a $5 trillion asset. Could it go higher? Of course. But $250,000 would represent solid progress between halvings, and I think we’ll see at least that.

Bitcoin

Currently trading at $64,500, BTC is down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours after retesting the $67,000 mark on Tuesday and failing to consolidate above that level.  

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Halving: Anticipating Price Impact, Miner Challenges, And Long-Term Outlook

The highly anticipated Bitcoin Halving event is close, bringing with it heightened expectations regarding the long-term impact on the Bitcoin price. 

There are concerns, however, that this quadrennial event may already be priced in, as Bitcoin recently reached an unprecedented all-time high of $73,700 on March 14.

This surge broke the pattern of previous Halvings, where Bitcoin had never surpassed its previous ATH before the event. However, historical data reveals significant price increases in the year following previous Halvings.

Experts Predict Delayed Bitcoin Halving Price Impact

Analysts argue that the compounding impact of reduced issuance takes several months to materialize, suggesting that the Halving itself may not prompt a significant rally before or immediately after the event. 

Deutsche Bank analysts share this sentiment, highlighting that substantial price increases have typically occurred in the run-up to previous Halvings rather than immediately after them.

Another factor to consider is the increased production costs for Bitcoin miners resulting from the Halving. As the mining reward decreases, participating in the mining process becomes less profitable. 

This has historically led to a decline in the hashrate, the total computational power used for Bitcoin mining. JPMorgan analysts predict that production costs could rise to an average of $42,000 after the Halving.

One JPMorgan analyst wrote, “This estimate is also the level we envisage Bitcoin prices drifting towards once Bitcoin-Halving-induced euphoria subsides after April.”

While these factors may influence short-term price movement, historical data reveals that the price of Bitcoin has experienced significant increases in the year following previous Halvings. 

The respective price gains for the three previous halvings were 8,760%, 2,570%, and 594%. However, it’s important to note that each successive halving has a diminishing impact on the new supply of Bitcoin.

Mining Industry Shake-Up

In the mining sector, Halving could lead to significant revenue losses, estimated to be around $10 billion annually. 

According to Fortune, publicly traded miners have taken measures to increase their resilience, diversify their offerings, and optimize their operations. However, mining stocks have faced challenges, with some experiencing significant declines.

While larger miners may undergo a period of adjustment, smaller miners and pools may be pushed offline. This could result in a wider market share for the surviving miners. 

Experts at private asset management firm Bernstein expect the mining industry to consolidate, with “smaller and less efficient players” potentially selling assets to raise capital and shore up their balance sheets. 

The increased market dominance of the surviving miners is expected to be profitable over the long term, especially with the continued structural demand for Bitcoin from ETFs.

Timing The Bitcoin Bull Market Peak

Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital has provided insights into the potential timing of Bitcoin’s bull market peak based on historical Halving cycles and the current acceleration seen in the market. 

According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has traditionally reached its peak in the bull market approximately 518-546 days after the Halving event.

However, the current cycle has shown signs of unprecedented acceleration, with Bitcoin surpassing previous all-time highs roughly 260 days ahead of historical norms. Nonetheless, the recent “pre-Halving retrace” has slowed down the cycle by around 30 days and counting.

Taking into account this accelerated perspective, if Bitcoin’s bull market peak is measured from the moment it breaks its old all-time high, it may occur 266-315 days later. As Bitcoin achieved new all-time highs in March, this suggests a potential bull market peak in December 2024 or February 2025, according to Rekt’s analysis.

Both perspectives carry significance throughout the cycle, especially if the acceleration trend persists. However, prolonged retracements or consolidation periods can slow down the cycle, potentially pushing the anticipated bull market peak further into the future.

Bitcoin Halving

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $64,300, up from the $59,000 mark reached in the early hours of Friday.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Pre-Halving Jitters: Bitcoin Price Briefly Slips Below $60,000

The Bitcoin price has recently experienced heightened volatility, causing the largest cryptocurrency in the market to briefly drop below the significant threshold of $60,000 for the first time since March 5. 

This price decrease comes just days before the highly anticipated Halving event scheduled for Friday. This event has traditionally been viewed as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin’s value due to its impact on token supply. 

However, market participants are questioning whether the Halving’s effects are already factored into the current market conditions, leading to extended bearish sentiment.

Long-Term Bullish Outlook Prevails

Bitcoin’s decline saw it plummet by 5% to $59,890, though it recovered some losses shortly afterward. Since reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 on March 14, the Bitcoin price has now retraced by approximately 18%. 

The downward trend extended to other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE), which also experienced slumps on Wednesday.

The impending Halving, a quadrennial code update in Bitcoin, has raised concerns among investors as to whether it will be a significant market-moving event or a non-event overshadowed by other factors, such as the ongoing discussions surrounding the Bitcoin ETF market, which has seen a significant decrease in terms of outflows.  

Nathanaël Cohen, co-founder of INDIGO Fund, noted that market participants are de-risking due to this uncertainty and the additional macro factor of tensions in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran, putting further pressure on risk assets.

The recent decline in Bitcoin’s price was further exacerbated by a wave of liquidations in long positions for digital assets. Last Friday alone, approximately $780 million worth of bullish crypto wagers were liquidated within 24 hours. 

Despite the recent market turbulence, some participants maintain a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Some see the recent liquidations and subsequent flushing out of leverage in the crypto market as a positive development. 

Ravi Doshi, head of markets at FalconX, reported increased buying of longer-dated call options on their derivatives desk, suggesting that clients anticipate higher prices in the latter half of the year.

Bitcoin Price Rebounds Above $61,000

Following the brief dip below the $60,000 mark, the Bitcoin price has rebounded, currently trading at $61,600. This recovery is viewed as a bullish sign, with the cryptocurrency’s macro uptrend structure remaining intact as long as price levels of $51,000 and $42,000 are maintained. 

Bitcoin price

The market is closely watching whether the theory suggesting that the Halving price catalyst is already factored into the current market conditions holds. Additionally, the performance of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States and their potential impact on driving the cryptocurrency’s price back to previous highs are of significant interest.

Furthermore, the recent approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF market in Hong Kong is expected to contribute to increased adoption of the leading cryptocurrency. Although some experts do not consider it as significant as the US ETF market, it is anticipated to generate a surge in price and further strengthen Bitcoin’s position.

Ultimately, the outcome of the Halving event, combined with the developments in both the US and Hong Kong ETF markets, remains uncertain. The ability of Bitcoin to regain its bullish momentum and drive increased demand will be closely monitored.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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The $86,500 Bitcoin Question: Will The Halving Spark A Price Surge This April?

The cryptocurrency market has undergone a substantial downturn, with many of the top 100 cryptocurrencies experiencing sharp price drops. Bitcoin, the leading digital asset, hit a low of $61,600 on Tuesday. 

However, industry experts suggest a potential rebound to higher highs may be on the horizon as the highly anticipated Halving event draws near. 

Adrian Zduńczyk, a crypto trader and technical analyst, provides valuable insights into the market dynamics, highlighting key factors such as bull market indicators, ETFs, and the imminent Halving event.

Mixed Signals For BTC

According to Zduńczyk’s analysis, the market exhibits bullish signs, with the 200-week and 50-week moving averages (MAs) at $33,700  and $39,900, respectively. 

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio is 0.55, indicating a favorable trading environment. Additionally, the 7-week correlation with the S&P 500 (SPX) remains firm at 0.71. 

In terms of daily trends, Zduńczyk notes that Bitcoin is currently in a choppy range between $59,000 and $74,000, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rising at $46,600 and the 200-day Bitcoin Production Cost (BPRO) rising at $57,700. 

However, the analyst notes that the medium-term momentum is declining, and the 50-day Average True Range (ATR) volatility has increased to $3270. This suggests that Bitcoin’s overall price trend is losing strength or momentum in the medium-term timeframe.

Bitcoin Aims For $86,500

Zduńczyk highlights the market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is at 65, indicating a state of greed among market participants. The analyst notes that the current phase of the market cycle is characterized by belief. 

Moreover, miners are still profitable at prices above $41,800, and as mining difficulty rises post-Halving, a price spike is expected. 

Notably, previous Halving events have triggered substantial price rallies, with Bitcoin experiencing significant gains of 90X, 30X, and 7X. Importantly, Bitcoin has never returned to Halving prices after these rallies.

Examining seasonality trends, the monthly opening price for April stands at $71,000, suggesting a positive outlook for the month. The average gain for April is estimated at 21.95%, implying an end-of-month target of $86,500, according to Zduńczyk. 

Moreover, the period from April 16 to 30 has historically seen average gains of 14.69%, further reinforcing positive expectations and further price gains for BTC during the upcoming weeks. According to Zduńczyk, this timeframe could attract investors seeking to buy the dip. 

Bitcoin

Despite the overall positive outlook, BTC is trading at $62,600, reflecting a consistent decline over the past month. In the last 30 days, BTC has experienced a 9% drop from its mid-March all-time high of $73,700.

Moreover, in its quest for new highs and surpassing the $80,000 threshold, BTC has encountered a significant obstacle at the $70,000 level. Despite surpassing its all-time high, BTC has struggled to consolidate above this level for over a week.

Nonetheless, as emphasized by Zduńczyk, the potential synergy between the success of the ETF market in the United States and the upcoming Halving event may hold the key to revitalizing BTC’s price trajectory. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Increased Bitcoin ETF Adoption Propels BTC Dominance To Highest Level Since 2021

Bitcoin’s dominance within the cryptocurrency market has reached a three-year high, signaling strong demand for US spot Bitcoin ETF holding the largest digital asset and a challenging period for smaller tokens.

Bitcoin accounted for nearly 55% of the $2.4 trillion digital asset market at the end of last week, a level not seen since April 2021. On Saturday, in particular, BTC’s dominance jumped to 57% as it briefly touched the $67,000 mark. 

The next largest tokens by market share include Ethereum (ETH), Tether’s USDT stablecoin, Binance exchange’s native token Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL).

BTC’s Rise Fueled By Successful US Bitcoin ETF Launches

According to Bloomberg, the recent success of the recently approved US spot Bitcoin ETFs from prominent issuers such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments has played a significant role in Bitcoin’s rise. 

These ETFs have garnered approximately $56 billion in assets, making their debut one of the most successful in fund category history.

Bitcoin

The inflows into these ETFs drove BTC to its current all-time high (ATH) of $73,798 in mid-March, a clear resistance level for the largest cryptocurrency on the market, as evidenced by its inability to consolidate above the $70,000 level following this achievement. 

Although BTC is down about 6% since then, smaller digital assets such as Avalanche (AVAX), Polkadot (DOT), and Chainlink (LINK) have seen more significant declines of nearly 30% over the past month. 

This drop coincided with reduced expectations for looser US monetary policy settings, often fueling speculative gains.

Hong Kong-Listed ETFs Boosts Bitcoin And Ethereum

Institutional investors’ allocations to the US Bitcoin ETF have greatly influenced Bitcoin’s performance relative to the rest of the market. Benjamin Celermajer, director of digital-asset investment at Magnet Capital, noted that strong institutional demand is a key driver.

On Monday, Bitcoin and Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, saw notable price jumps following indications that asset managers are preparing to launch Hong Kong-listed ETFs on both tokens. Bitcoin rose 4.3% to $66,575, while ETH jumped 6.2% to $3,260. 

These rallies had a positive impact on the broader crypto market, lifting other notable tokens such as Polygon (MATIC), Cardano (ADA), the dog-themed meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana, which is now the top 5 cryptocurrency market winner, up over 8% on Monday.

Interestingly, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, which measures the performance of the largest digital assets traded in US dollars, has more than tripled since the beginning of last year, marking a significant rebound from the bear market experienced in 2022.

Lastly, investors and traders eagerly anticipate the upcoming Bitcoin Halving, an event that will cut the new supply of the token in half, expected around April 20th. 

Previous Halving events have acted as a tailwind for prices, although there are growing doubts about whether history will repeat itself given BTC’s recent all-time high achievement. 

Bitcoin ETF

BTC has successfully maintained its position above the $66,000 threshold and has consolidated in this range. However, it is important to note that losses have accumulated over longer time frames. 

Over the past fourteen and thirty days of trading, the cryptocurrency has experienced significant declines of over 21% and 24% respectively.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Is The Bull Run Nearing its End? Marathon CEO Asserts Bitcoin ‘Halving’ Rally Already Priced In

In anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin Halving event, which is expected to occur later this month, Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel believes that the price impact may already be factored into the market to a certain extent. 

Thiel shared his insights in a recent interview with Bloomberg, in which he discussed the potential catalysts for further price increases and their implications for the mining industry.

Bitcoin Halving Impact Mitigated By ETF Surge? 

The “halving” event, a software code update that occurs approximately every four years, is often regarded as a key driver of Bitcoin’s price appreciation. The update will reduce the block reward for miners by half, meaning they will receive fewer Bitcoins as a reward for validating transactions on the blockchain. 

However, Thiel noted that the impact of The Halving may not be as significant this time, as the recent approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has already attracted substantial capital to the market. Thiel explained: 

The ETF approval, which has been a huge success, has attracted capital into the market and essentially brought forward what could have been the price appreciation we typically would have seen three to six months post-halving. So I think we are seeing part of that now already and that has put forward some of the demand.

While the halving event is expected to reduce the daily supply of new Bitcoins by approximately 450, Thiel believes the price impact may be relatively modest. 

However, the Marathon CEO expressed excitement about the positive price trend leading up to the halving, stating: 

As miners, we are very excited to go into a halving, where for once prices have not declined prior to the halving rather prices have gone up so everybody is obviously maximizing to that.

Balancing ETF Inflows And Previous Halving Patterns

Thiel’s observations come amidst the noteworthy inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which have amassed nearly $12 billion in just three months of trading in the United States. 

While these inflows may have contributed to the current price appreciation, historical data reveals that Bitcoin still possesses considerable growth potential leading up to The Halving.

To gain a comprehensive understanding, it is crucial to examine the recent surge in Bitcoin’s value, which has soared by nearly 370% from its bear market low of $15,400 to an all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 on March 14, 2024. 

In conjunction with this surge, past halving events provide valuable insights into Bitcoin’s price movements and the likelihood of surpassing the significant milestone of $100,000.

During the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin’s price experienced a remarkable surge from a low of $13 to a peak of $1,152 the following year, illustrating an impressive increase of 8,753%. 

Similarly, the second halving event in July 2016 witnessed Bitcoin’s price ascending from $664 to a new ATH of $17,760, reflecting a surge of 2,580% after the halving. 

The most recent Halving event in May 2020 saw Bitcoin’s price reach a significant milestone of $67,000, surging from a low of $9,730, which accounted for a substantial increase of 593% following the halving.

In perspective, while the potential scenario outlined by Thiel suggests that The Halving may be partially priced in due to the influence of ETF inflows, historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin still has plenty of room to run before the event. 

Several market pundits have also set their price targets for this bull run at the coveted $100,000 level in light of the upcoming halving event.

However, it remains to be seen how the price of Bitcoin will react, taking into account factors such as the influx of capital through ETFs, historical data, and potential market dynamics.

Bitcoin halving

Currently, BTC is trading at $68,400, down 0.4% from yesterday’s price. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin Q1 Performance Digest: 70% Price Surge, Inflows Into ETFs, And Expansion Of Layer TVL Revealed

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown an impressive performance in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024, as highlighted in a recent report by market intelligence data research firm Messari. The research firm finds key factors contributing to Bitcoin’s price increase, market cap dominance, and the emergence of new trends in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Inscription Activities Drive Bitcoin Fees Up

Analyzing the key figures detailed in the report, Bitcoin’s price experienced a significant increase in Q1 2024, rising 68.78% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) to reach an all-time high (ATH) of $73,100. 

This price increase propelled Bitcoin’s market cap dominance to 49.7% in March 2024. Interestingly, the research firm notes that such dominance is a typical feature at the start of a new halving cycle, with Bitcoin often leading the way for other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin

Another relevant figure is the inscription activity in Q4 2023, which drove fees up by 699.4% QoQ. However, in Q1 2024, subscription-related fees decreased by 41.9%. Despite declining total fees, inscription-related transactions still accounted for 18.4% of Bitcoin’s total fees, demonstrating their continued relevance.

Average daily transactions and daily active addresses also experienced a decline of 15.3% and 4.7% QoQ, respectively. The report suggests that the decline in transaction activity may be attributed to decreased activity from bots or “super users.” This shift aligns with the decrease in inscription-related activities and fees. 

Inscription-related activity initially surged in February 2023, leading to a considerable transaction increase. Although Q1 2024 witnessed a decline in inscription-related activity QoQ, it remained significantly higher year-over-year (YoY), indicating its continued impact on the network. 

ETFs Amassed 212,000 BTC In Q1

Messari highlights that Q1 2024 showed the growth of programmable layers in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Established layers such as Rootstock and Stacks led the way regarding total value locked (TVL), while newer layers such as BOB and Merlin experienced rapid growth. 

TVL’s 127% QoQ growth was primarily in non-BTC assets, as Bitcoin-locked amounts lagged behind the Lightning Network and alt-L1 networks, which host significant amounts of BTC.

Ultimately, the approval and launch of nine spot ETFs and one ETF conversion marked a significant milestone for Bitcoin’s legitimization by the US government and traditional finance (TradFi). 

The report notes that these ETFs garnered over $12 billion in inflows within the first month. Notably, BTC ETFs surpassed silver ETFs in assets under management (AUM) but still lagged behind gold ETFs. 

Bitcoin

Institutional BTC holdings were also surpassed by MicroStrategy, the largest institutional holder, with 215,000 BTC. The ETFs accumulated 212,000 BTC in inflows during Q1, further establishing Bitcoin’s prominence in the financial markets.

Bitcoin’s exceptional performance in Q1 2024, marked by a significant price increase and market cap dominance, has solidified its position as the leading cryptocurrency. 

Anticipation for the supply halving, along with the success of BTC ETFs and institutional inflows, has contributed to Bitcoin’s growth and recognition in traditional finance. 

Bitcoin

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin Stuck Below $66,000: Are ETF Outflows Beyond Grayscale An Issue?

On Tuesday, the crypto market was off guard when Cathie Wood’s ARK 21Shares spot Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) experienced a significant outflow. This marked the first time since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States that one of the “Newborn Nine” surpassed the outflows of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). On April 2, ARKB saw outflows of $87.5 million, approximately 1,300 BTC, as reported by Farside Investors, while Grayscale recorded a daily outflow of $81.9 million.

This event marked a notable shift in the Bitcoin market dynamics, raising concerns and debates among investors and analysts alike. The core question that arises is whether such outflows indicate a bearish signal for Bitcoin’s price or if they are a natural part of the market’s ebb and flow.

Are ETF Outflows Beyond Grayscale Concerning?

Bloomberg’s ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, offered an analytical perspective on the event, advocating for a broader view of ETF dynamics. In a series of comments on social media platform X, Balchunas downplayed the severity of the outflows.

“Seeing some of CT up in arms over ARKB having an outflow day, which really shows the greedy and short-sighted nature of some of the folks in this space tbh,” he remarked, suggesting that even the most reputable ETFs, like those offered by Vanguard, periodically experience outflows as part of their operational cycle.

Balchunas further elaborated on the significance of ARKB’s performance, stating, “ARKB has $2.8b in under 3 months on the market. And it’s only the 3rd biggest. I would have guessed 3rd place would be $500m at this point. The inflows have been that epic, and without the ETFs, btc is probably at like $30k.”

This comment highlights the instrumental role of ETFs in bolstering Bitcoin’s market price, suggesting that the recent outflows, while notable, represent a minor setback in the grand scheme.

The analyst also addressed the collective behavior of ETF investors, emphasizing that the recent downturn in Bitcoin’s price should not solely be attributed to ETF outflows. “The ‘ten’ are a team, and yesterday they saw net inflows as a team, yet btc went down like 6% = the selling (as usual) is coming from your fellow supposed hodlers,” he pointed out, hinting at the broader market dynamics and investor behaviors influencing price movements.

Renowned crypto expert Scott Melker weighed in on the debate, suggesting a possible rationale behind the ARKB outflows. “Probably just a large investor allocating to a different ETF,” Melker commented, indicating the strategic reallocation of assets within the crypto ETF space.

Responding to inquiries about the transparency of ETF transactions, Balchunas highlighted the inherent anonymity of ETF trading, stating, “No way to know, could be someone spooked by volatility, […] could have been ARK itself taking profits […] Not even the issuer knows who is going in and out of their ETFs. That anonymity is an underrated feature of ETFs,” thereby shedding light on the privacy aspects that differentiate ETFs from other investment vehicles.

Bitcoin Inflows Are Positive Again

Despite the concerns raised by the recent outflows, the ETF market demonstrated resilience yet again with positive flows of $113.5 million yesterday. Fidelity led the pack with $116.7 million in inflows, followed by Blackrock with $42 million and Bitwise with $23 million. ARKB had zero activity. GBTC did $75 million of outflows.

Renowned analyst WhalePanda commented, “Not much more to say now, price is going sideways. The big outflows on GBTC are over. Just consolidation and accumulation. 16 days until halving. Currently we [need] $60 million per day to buy up the daily mined supply. In 2.5 weeks that’s only $30 million at these prices.”

At press time, BTC traded at $66,217.

Bitcoin price

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US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Experience Record Outflows, Losing $740 Million In Three Days

The 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their biggest three-day outflow since their debut in January, as reported by Bloomberg. This shift in investor sentiment comes after heightened interest that propelled the largest cryptocurrency in the market to a record high of $73,700.

Bitcoin ETFs See Record Outflows

Between Monday and Wednesday, a net total of $742 million exited the Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and a moderation in subscriptions for similar offerings from prominent firms like BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity Investments (FBTC).

According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has experienced a notable outflow surge. This recent development indicates a “second wind” of investor withdrawals, with a substantial $1.4 billion leaving the trust just this week. 

Bitcoin ETFs

Notably, these withdrawals have surpassed all other ETFs in year-to-date outflows and set a new record for cumulative outflows in ETF history, as shown in the chart above.

Nevertheless, GBTC continues to hold a prominent position in terms of revenue generation. It currently ranks third out of the 3,400 ETFs available, demonstrating its continued financial success.

Despite the recent outflows, the overall performance of these funds remains noteworthy, with net inflows of $11.4 billion recorded since their launch, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This signifies one of the most successful debuts for an ETF category.

Crypto Analyst Predicts “Massive Bounce” For BTC

Bitcoin experienced a significant surge of over 5% in the United States on Wednesday, propelled by signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) hinting at potential interest-rate cuts. 

However, the Asian market painted a different picture on Thursday, with Bitcoin losing momentum compared to continued gains in global stocks and gold. According to Bloomberg, the news of outflows from Bitcoin ETFs permeated markets, contributing to the contrasting performance.

Nonetheless, renowned crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe shared a bold prediction on social media platform X (formerly Twitter). In his post, he expressed optimism about a “massive bounce” for Bitcoin, suggesting the potential for a continuation of its upward trajectory. 

Van de Poppe also predicted that Bitcoin could consolidate in the near term before embarking on another rally towards the all-time high it reached before the halving event, which is expected to begin sometime in April.

Bitcoin ETFs

Currently, BTC is trading at $66,200, reflecting a 4% increase in the past 24 hours despite ongoing outflows in the ETF market. Over longer time frames, Bitcoin has shown consistent gains, with a 27% increase over the past thirty days and an impressive 136% gain year-to-date.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Record-Breaking GBTC Outflows Send Bitcoin Down 14% To $62,000

As reported by Fortune Magazine, the cryptocurrency market has been experiencing significant volatility as Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a sharp decline that has had a domino impact on other cryptocurrencies. The recent drop in the price of Bitcoin, coupled with outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC, has raised concerns among investors. 

Bitcoin Sees 14% Correction From ATH

Bitcoin suffered a 14% drop since reaching its all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 last week, briefly touching $62,483 on Tuesday morning. However, it recovered and stabilized around $64,900, just below the $65,000 mark. 

The decline was attributed to record outflows of over $640 million from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). In comparison, other spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of less than $500 million, resulting in a net outflow of $15 million on Monday, according to Bloomberg ETF expert James Seyffart. 

Bitcoin

This outflow from GBTC, combined with the cautious sentiment surrounding the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the US, has had a significant impact on Bitcoin’s performance.

As recently reported by NewsBTC, investors exhibited caution ahead of the FOMC meeting, closely monitoring the potential changes in interest rates. Recent higher-than-expected inflation data, as indicated by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), dampened expectations of interest rate cuts. 

According to Fortune, the CME FedWatch Tool projected a 99% likelihood of rates remaining unchanged, further affecting market sentiment. Per the report, investors were keen to gauge the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy, contributing to the cautious trading environment.

In the same context, the Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate from -0.1% to 0% to 0.1% in response to rising consumer prices. This was the first rate increase in 17 years.

Crypto Futures Traders Take A Hit

The drop in Bitcoin’s price had a cascading effect on other cryptocurrencies. Major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) experienced significant declines of 8.1% and 12.5% over the past 24 hours, respectively. 

Meme coins, including Floki Inu (FLOKI), Bonk Inu (Bonk), and Dogecoin (DOGE), also suffered losses of 34%, 28.5%, and 24.8%, respectively, during the past week. 

The decline in cryptocurrency prices resulted in over $440 million worth of liquidations for traders of crypto futures. Traders who had leveraged positions betting on higher prices faced significant losses. Most of these liquidations occurred on Binance, totaling $212 million, followed by OKX at $170 million. 

Bitcoin

Despite its price correction, BTC retains substantial gains of over 26% and 132% in the past thirty days and year-to-date timeframe, respectively.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin ETFs See Record $1 Billion Inflows, Pushing Price Over $73,500

Yesterday, the Bitcoin price journey resembled a high-intensity rollercoaster ride, initially soaring past the $73,000 mark before encountering a tumultuous liquidation event. This event saw over $361 million worth of leveraged trades unwound, compelling the BTC price to retract sharply to below $68,300.

The drastic price fluctuation primarily affected long position holders—investors who speculated on a continued price rise—with a staggering $258 million wiped out. Subsequently, Bitcoin’s price staged a remarkable V-shaped recovery, during which short sellers found themselves on the losing end, with just over $103 million in positions liquidated.

This data by Coinglass marks the event as the most significant purge of long positions since March 5. At that time, Bitcoin experienced a decline to $60,800 following its climb to a then all-time high of approximately $69,000.

Bitcoin ETFs Register Record $1 Billion Inflows

Perhaps spurred by the opportunity presented by the price dip, investors in spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) engaged in a buying spree, unprecedented in its intensity. For the first time, spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed a daily inflow surpassing $1 billion on Tuesday, March 12, primarily driven by an inflow of $849 million to BlackRock’s IBIT. According to detailed data released by Farside Investors, the total net inflows across all Bitcoin ETFs were at $1045 million (or $1.045 billion).

The second largest Bitcoin ETF to date, Fidelity, saw a rather quiet day  with FBTC taking in only $51.6 million, while Ark Invest ($93 million), Bitwise ($24.6 million), Valkyrie ($39.6 million) and VanEck ($82.9 million) saw relatively strong capital inflows. Notably, Grayscale‘s GBTC saw a waning outflow of just $79 million.

Bitcoin analyst Alessandro Ottaviani shared his insights on X, underscoring the magnitude of these inflows, “1 Billy of Total net Inflow! ONE BILLION DOLLARS! […] In the last twelve trading days, The Nine inflow has been $9.2b, with an average of $768m per day. Just imagine if we keep this pace and it is confirmed that GBCT outflow is almost exhausted.”

Crypto Quant analyst Maartunn provided additional context to the inflow’s impact, revealing, “JUST IN: The Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has experienced its highest inflows ever, with an additional 14,706.2 BTC.” This statement further emphasizes the substantial increase in Bitcoin’s demand, potentially setting it up for a major supply squeeze.

Adding to the conversation, crypto analyst @venturefounder suggested potential future price movements based on the current trend, “Absolute Bitcoin madness […] The 5-day moving average net inflow has fully recovered to peak. So… probably HIGHER. If this continues, $80-90k by the end of month is not far fetched. No correction has lasted longer than 24 hours on the weekdays. Interestingly, the first major correction of the 2021 cycle came when price went 2x previous ATH. So could we see no major correction until $120k?”

At press time, BTC already surpassed the $73,500 mark and traded at $73,392.

Bitcoin price

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MicroStrategy Increases Bitcoin Bet With $822M Purchase, Adds 12,000 BTC To Treasury

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues its unprecedented uptrend, surging to a new all-time high (ATH) of $72,300, software company MicroStrategy remains steadfast in its vision. It is reaping substantial rewards from its strategic investment in the largest cryptocurrency in the market. 

MicroStrategy, led by renowned Bitcoin supporter and former CEO Michael Saylor, recently made a major acquisition, further solidifying its position in the digital asset market.

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Investment Pays Off

According to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), MicroStrategy acquired approximately 12,000 BTC between February 26, 2024, and March 10, 2024, for approximately $821.7 million in cash. The average purchase price per Bitcoin was $68,400. 

Additionally, MicroStrategy recently completed an offering of convertible senior notes due 2030, raising $800 million in funds. With this latest acquisition, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings now stand at a staggering 205,000 BTC, acquired for $6.9 billion.

Microstrategy

MicroStrategy’s stock trades at $1,557, representing a remarkable 9% gain within 24 hours. The company’s shares have demonstrated a sustained and continuous upward trajectory since February 26, coinciding with Bitcoin’s $50,000 consolidation phase breakthrough. 

Over two weeks, Bitcoin surged to its present trading price, establishing a notable correlation between the leading cryptocurrency and MicroStrategy. This correlation has further solidified the company’s strategy and contributed to its stock’s performance.

MicroStrategy’s strategic investment in Bitcoin has yielded remarkable results. The company now boasts a profit of $7.7 billion on its Bitcoin holdings, which translates to a remarkable return of 112% so far as Bitcoin breaks new all-time highs.

ETF Expert Astounded By Bitcoin ETF Success

The rapid rise of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) has surpassed even the most optimistic projections. Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas highlighted the growth of these funds in a recent post on social media site X (formerly Twitter). The expert noted that assets under management (AUM) surpassed $55 billion, and trading volume reached an impressive $110 billion. 

Microstrategy

Balchunas acknowledged that achieving such numbers in just two months was nothing short of “absurd,” far exceeding what would normally be considered successful even at the end of a full year.

In addition, in a surprising turn of events for the ETF expert, Blackrock’s IBIT ETF and Fidelity’s FBTC have emerged as the leaders among all ETFs in terms of year-to-date (YTD) flows through the middle of March. This unexpected feat positions these Bitcoin ETF offerings as major players in the ETF market, attracting the attention and interest of investors seeking exposure to the digital asset.

Microstrategy

Currently, BTC continues its uptrend, aiming to solidify and consolidate above the $70,000 threshold, which would put the cryptocurrency in a good position to reach the $100,000 mark in the rest of the year. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin ETF Frenzy: BlackRock Smashes Expectations With $788 Million Inflows In One Day

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, achieved a remarkable milestone on March 5. Attracting a staggering $788 million, it exceeded its previous record of $612 million in inflows in a single day. This surge in investment coincided with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $69,300, surpassing its previous ATH set in 2021.

Bitcoin ETF Trading Volumes Reaches Record $10 Billion

Shortly after Bitcoin hit its new milestone, the market experienced a notable price correction, dropping below $60,000. However, this dip seemed to entice ETF buyers who saw it as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at a discounted price. 

As a result, the Bitcoin price has quickly recovered and reached the $65,200 level, positioning itself for further price gains and consolidation above its ATH.

Bitcoin ETF

According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, the ten Bitcoin ETFs traded a staggering $10 billion in volume on the same day, breaking the previous record set just a week ago. 

The expert noted that this surge in trading activity is not entirely unexpected, as volatility and volume often go hand in hand with ETFs. Balchunas also highlighted that several ETFs, including Blackrock’s IBIT, Fidelity (FBTC), Bitwise (BITB), and Arkham (ARKB), achieved record-breaking trading volumes.

Interestingly, while the Bitcoin ETFs experienced a surge in inflows, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued its trend of outflows since the ETFs launched on January 11. 

Balchunas noted that GBTC has seen nearly $10 billion in outflows, yet its total assets under management remain unchanged since its launch. This phenomenon can be attributed to the bull market subsidy, wherein investors continue to hold assets despite outflows, generating revenue for the trust.

A Temporary Halt Before Further Gains?

Bitcoin’s recent price action has encountered resistance at its ATH level of $69,000, signaling a temporary rejection from this crucial point. This coincides with the activation of the Golden Ratio Multiplier, the first and only cycle top indicator to have fired thus far.

The Golden Ratio Multiplier, an indicator often used in technical analysis, has seen its cycle top band (level 5) rise to $69,099, aligning perfectly with Bitcoin’s recent peak. However, considering this is the sole indicator predicting a cycle top, some analysts, including Crypto Con, believe that a significant market correction may not have occurred yet.

Bitcoin ETF

According to Crypto Con, this current phase represents a temporary resting place for Bitcoin’s early parabolic ascent. Crypto Con suggests that once Bitcoin breaks through the ATH, it will begin a new phase characterized by heightened market activity and potential price gains. 

Bitcoin ETF

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF Launches In Brazil, ETF Market Secures 4% Of Total BTC Supply

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, announced the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT39) launch in Brazil on Thursday. Starting today, Friday, March 1, shares of this index fund, which tracks the spot price of Bitcoin (BTC), will be traded on the Brazilian Commodities and Futures Exchange, known as B3.

BlackRock Launches IBIT39 Bitcoin ETF In Brazil

Karina Saade, president of BlackRock in Brazil, highlighted the company’s commitment to providing high-quality access vehicles to investors in the digital asset market. She stated:

IBIT39 is a natural progression of our efforts over many years and builds on the fundamental capabilities we have established so far in the digital asset market.

Felipe Gonçalves, Superintendent of Interest and Currency Products at B3 discussed the growth of the listed crypto market in Brazil. He noted that the market, which started in 2021, now has 13 ETFs with total assets of R$2.5 billion, or about $505 million.

While the market experienced fluctuations in its early years, it reached an eye-catching daily trading volume of R$30 million reais ($6.6 million) by the end of last year, according to local media reports in Brazil. 

Gonçalves mentioned that investors in crypto ETFs include institutional investors, such as funds, and individual investors, with a current number of 170,000. Liquidity in the market is provided by non-residents investing in B3 as a whole.

IBIT39 will reportedly have a management fee of 0.25%, with a one-year waiver that reduces the fee to 0.12% once the fund reaches its first $5 billion in assets under management (AUM). The product will be made available to the general public, allowing broader participation in the Bitcoin market.

$7.5B Net Inflow In Bitcoin ETFs Since Launch In The US

BlackRock’s IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) ETF has emerged as a notable player in the US ETF race, countering a significant outflow from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

BitMEX research data shows that on February 29, 2024, positive flows amounted to $92 million for the day. Notably, BlackRock and GBTC offset each other, experiencing $600 million in opposite directions. The data shows that since the ETFs began trading on January 11, 2024, there has been an impressive net inflow of $7.5 billion.

The overall holdings of spot funds, which directly hold Bitcoin, stood at 776,464 BTC (equivalent to $47.7 billion) on Friday morning, according to BitMEX Research. It’s essential to consider that the total BTC supply currently in circulation is 19.64 million, with a maximum limit of 21 million. 

With this context, the fact that the ETFs have secured 4% of the total BTC supply is a significant milestone. It demonstrates the growing demand for Bitcoin among investors utilizing these index funds to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency.

Blackrock

BTC continues to consolidate above the $62,000 mark, rising 1.3% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin ETF Breaks Records: BlackRock’s IBIT Joins Elite ‘$10 Billion Club’ Amidst Soaring Demand

The demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has surged since their recent approval on January 10, with BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF leading the way. This ETF has reached impressive milestones in less than two months, attracting significant investor interest and opening doors for various market participants to invest in the largest cryptocurrency directly. 

As institutional and retail investors flock to these new investment vehicles, market experts predict a bullish trend and anticipate a potential price surge.

Bitcoin ETF Frenzy

According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF has quickly joined the esteemed “$10 billion club,” reaching the milestone faster than any other ETF, including Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), noting that only 152 ETFs out of 3,400 have crossed the threshold.

Balchunas notes that IBIT’s ascent to this club was primarily driven by significant inflows, which accounted for 78% of its assets under management (AUM). This reflects the growing appetite for Bitcoin exposure among investors seeking diversified and regulated investment options.

In particular, the current trajectory of the ETF market paints a picture of resilience and bullish sentiment in the market. Equity ETF flows, and leveraged trading levels are positive indicators, although they have not yet reached the euphoria seen in 2021, Balchunas notes. 

However, Bloomberg’s new BI ETF Greed/Fear Indicator, which incorporates various inputs, highlights the optimistic outlook shared by ETF investors, as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin ETF

On this matter, crypto analyst “On-Chain College” went to social media X (formerly Twitter) to emphasize the significant demand for Bitcoin as evidenced by its rapid departure from exchanges. 

In its analysis, On-Chain College highlights that Bitcoin ETFs buy approximately ten times the daily amount of BTC mined. At the same time, the upcoming halving event will further reduce the mining supply. The analyst predicts when demand will exceed available supply, leading to potential upward price pressure.

Highest Monthly Close Since 2021

Bitcoin’s recent market performance has caught the attention of wealth manager Caleb Franzen, who highlights the significance of the highest monthly close since October 2021. 

Franzen further emphasizes the bullish momentum by pointing out that the 36-month Williams%R Oscillator has closed above the overbought level for only the fourth time in history. Historical data reveals impressive returns following such signals, indicating the potential for substantial gains in the coming months. 

Bitcoin ETF

Additionally, Franzen notes the changing dynamics of the market, with increased institutional participation and the ease of retail onboarding through ETFs.

Franzen presents a compelling case for the bullish nature of overbought signals, urging market participants to view them as momentum indicators rather than signals to fade. Previous instances of overbought signals have resulted in significant Bitcoin price appreciation:

  • February 2013: +3,900% in 9 months
  • December 2016: +1,900% in 12 months
  • November 2020: +260% in 12 months

While acknowledging diminishing returns in each cycle, Franzen highlights the unprecedented level of institutional participation and the ease of retail access through ETFs. 

Even if Bitcoin were to match the +260% gain from the November 2020 signal, it would reach a price of $180,000, surpassing Franzen’s minimum cycle target of $175,000. 

Ultimately, Franzen notes that bull markets are typically characterized by a rising ETHBTC ratio and a falling BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance). While these characteristics have yet to manifest fully, Franzen suggests that a multi-quarter rally in the broader cryptocurrency market may be on the horizon.

Bitcoin ETF

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin Price Tumbles Amid VanEck ETF’s Volume Surge: What Happend?

Bitcoin experienced a tumultuous day yesterday, with its price briefly touching $53,000 before plummeting to a low of $50,820. Amid this price volatility, an unexpected phenomenon caught the eye of market analysts: a dramatic surge in trading volumes for certain Bitcoin ETFs.

Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas provided a detailed account of this anomaly on X, particularly focusing on the VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL) and its astonishing increase in trading volume. He remarked, “HODL is going wild today with $258m in volume already, a 14x jump over its daily average, and it’s not one big investor… but rather 32,000 individual trades, which is 60x its avg.”

This level of activity was not only unexpected but also unprecedented, sparking widespread speculation and analysis within the financial community. The unusual trading volume wasn’t isolated to HODL alone. Wisdom Tree’s Bitcoin ETF (BTCW) and BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) also saw significant upticks in trading activity, albeit to varying degrees.

Balchunas pointed out, “BTCW also popping off, $154m trades, 12x its avg and 25x its assets via 23,000 indiv trades.” However, he noted that the volume increase in IBIT, while elevated, did not reach the “extraordinary levels” observed in HODL and BTCW.

What’s Behind The Sudden Spike In Bitcoin ETF Volumes?

Addressing theories that the ETF volume surge was driving Bitcoin’s price drop, Balchunas offered a rebuttal, “To the ‘bruh volume must be selling bc btc is dumping’ crowd: a) that makes no sense given how little these ETFs had in existing aum/shareholders b) plus you never see ton of outflows in brand new ETF that is in rally mode c) there are so many other holders of btc besides ETFs! d) how can you call it ‘dumping’ when it is down 1% after 20% rally in two weeks?”

However, the source of this sudden and explosive increase in trading volume remains a mystery, with Balchunas speculating, “Still haven’t figured out what happened. No one knows. Given how sudden and explosive the increase in number of trades was… I’m wondering if some Reddit or TikTok influencer type recommended them to their followers. Feels retail army-ish.”

He also considered the possibility of market makers trading among each other but found it an unlikely explanation given the liquidity of other Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT and BITO.

The trading day concluded with “The Nine” achieving a record-breaking volume day, thanks to significant contributions from HODL, BTCW, and BITB, which all shattered their previous records. Balchunas highlighted the significance of this trading volume, stating, “For context $2b in trading would put them in Top 10ish among ETFs and Top 20ish among stocks. It’s a lot.”

Turnover / trade volume of the spot Bitcoin ETFs

As the dust settles on this unprecedented day of trading, the Bitcoin community continues to grapple with the implications of this volume surge on Bitcoin ETFs and its potential impact on the market. The exact catalyst behind this phenomenon remains elusive, with analysts and investors alike keenly awaiting further developments.

At the time of going to press, BTC fell below the $51,000 mark again and initially found support at the EMA100 on the 1-hour chart.

Bitcoin price

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Bitcoin ETFs Threaten Gold’s Dominance As Digitalization Trends Gain Momentum

In just over a month since their approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bitcoin ETFs have swiftly gained traction in the market, posing a formidable challenge to the long-standing dominance of gold ETFs.

Bitcoin ETFs Gain Ground on Gold ETFs

The rapid rise of Bitcoin ETFs has led to a convergence in asset values, with BTC ETFs closing the gap with gold ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs hold approximately $37 billion in assets after only 25 trading days, while gold ETFs have accumulated $93 billion in over 20 years of trading. 

Bitcoin ETFs

In this regard, Bloomberg’s Senior Commodity Strategist, Mike McGlone, emphasizes the shifting landscape, stating, “Tangible Gold is Losing Luster to Intangible Bitcoin.” 

According to McGlone, the US stock market’s continued resilience, the US currency’s strength, and 5% interest rates have presented headwinds for gold. Moreover, as the world increasingly embraces digitalization, the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States adds further competition to the precious metal.

McGlone further states that while the bias for gold prices remains upward, investors who solely focus on gold may risk falling behind potential paradigm-shifting digitalization trends. 

Ultimately, McGlone suggests that investors should consider diversifying their portfolios by incorporating Bitcoin or other digital assets to stay ahead in the evolving investment landscape.

Bitcoin Rally Driven By Institutional Demand 

The success of Bitcoin ETFs is further demonstrated by recent data suggesting that the upward trend in Bitcoin prices is driven primarily by institutional demand. At the same time, retail participation appears to be declining.

According to analyst Ali Martinez, as the price of Bitcoin continues to hover between $51,800 and $52,100, there has been a noticeable decrease in the creation of new Bitcoin addresses daily, indicating a lack of retail participation in the current bull rally and highlighting the growing influence of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin ETFs

However, market expert Crypto Con points out a significant shift in Long-Term Bitcoin holder positions, signaling a potential downside movement. 

As seen in the chart below shared by Crypto Con, the position change line crossed below -50.00 for the first time in over a year, a pattern that has historically occurred at critical moments in Bitcoin’s market cycles. These moments include the cycle bottom, mid-top (which occurred only once), and the start/end of a cycle top parabola (which occurred most frequently).

Bitcoin ETFs

According to Crypto Con, this recent shift in long-term holder positions raises two possible scenarios: a mid-top or an imminent parabolic movement. Such a movement at this stage in the cycle is considered unusual. 

Primarily, it indicates that long-term Bitcoin holders are exiting their positions in significant numbers, possibly anticipating a market correction or a change in the overall trend.

Overall, the shift in Bitcoin holder positions and the decline in retail participation present contrasting dynamics in the current market landscape. While institutional demand continues to drive the price of Bitcoin higher, long-term holders appear to be taking profit or adjusting their positions. 

BTC chart

While BTC is currently trading at $51,800, it remains to be seen what the direction of the next move will be and how institutions will continue to influence the price action of the largest cryptocurrency as spot Bitcoin ETFs gain traction.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin ETFs Boosts Coinbase (COIN) Shares As JPMorgan Upgrades Rating

The recent Bitcoin rally, propelling its price to the $52,000 level, has positively impacted the stock of US-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN). After experiencing a notable dip to $115 at the start of February, Coinbase’s stock rose to $172 on Thursday, following a significant upgrade by a JPMorgan analyst.

Improved Prospects For Coinbase Amid Crypto Rally

According to a Bloomberg report, JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington abandoned his bearish view on Coinbase weeks after downgrading the stock. 

As Bitcoin traded higher, Coinbase shares gained as much as 7.8% following the upgrade. Worthington believes the exchange will likely benefit from the recent rally in digital asset prices, prompting him to shift his rating back to neutral.

This change in stance comes after Worthington’s January downgrade, where he predicted a potential deflation of enthusiasm for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

However, contrary to his previous forecast, Bitcoin ETFs have been successful in terms of trading measures, and the price of Bitcoin has surged beyond $52,000, reaching its highest level since 2021. In a note to clients on Thursday, Worthington explained:

Given the acceleration in recent days of flows into Bitcoin ETFs and the significant price appreciation of Bitcoin and now Ethereum, we are returning to a Neutral rating on Coinbase as we see the higher cryptocurrency prices not only sustaining but improving activity levels and Coinbase’s earnings power as we look to 1Q24.

Coinbase

Coinbase’s stock experienced an 8% dip at the beginning of the year, following an impressive 400% surge in 2023. Analyst opinions on the stock remain divided, with buy, hold, and sell recommendations being roughly evenly split. 

Worthington maintained his $80 price target on the stock ahead of the company’s earnings report, which is scheduled to be released after the market closes on Thursday.

Worthington emphasized that Coinbase’s business is closely tied to token prices, with its core revenue being transaction-based. As the value of tokens increases and trading activity gains momentum, fees based on the value traded are expected to drive higher trading volumes, ultimately contributing to improved revenue for Coinbase.

Bitcoin ETFs Witness Significant Trading Volume 

On February 14th, the trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs showcased notable figures, with Blackrock’s IBIT recording the lead with $721 million in volume. 

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) followed closely with $619 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC secured the third spot with $456 million. On the other hand, Ark Invest accumulated a volume of $169 million.

The nine ETFs’ total trading volume amounted to approximately $1.5 billion. Notably, the largest ETFs experienced higher trading volume than the previous day, with IBIT surpassing $700 million and GBTC exceeding $600 million.

Coinbase

Intriguingly, before the trading session, GBTC sent less than half of the Bitcoin it sent to Coinbase the previous day. Despite this decrease, GBTC’s total trading volume was 50% higher.

As the demand for Bitcoin continues to surge, ETFs play a crucial role in facilitating institutional and retail investors’ participation in the cryptocurrency market. The increased trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs highlights investors’ growing interest and confidence in digital assets.

Coinbase

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $51,900 and encountering a critical resistance level at $52,000. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com