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SEC Anticipated To Reject Spot Ethereum ETFs In Upcoming Decision, ETH Price Takes 5% Hit

Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has experienced a significant 5% price drop. This drop comes amid growing speculation that the highly anticipated Ethereum ETFs will likely be rejected by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the upcoming May deadline.

US Bitcoin ETF Issuers Brace For SEC’s Expected Denial

According to a recent Reuters report, various US Bitcoin ETF issuers and firms anticipate the SEC’s denial of their applications to launch ETFs tied to the price of ETH. 

These expectations have been fueled by “discouraging meetings” between the applicants and the regulatory agency in recent weeks, as disclosed by four individuals familiar with the matter.

Prominent investment firms such as VanEck, ARK Investment Management, and seven other issuers have submitted filings with the SEC to list ETFs that would track the spot price of Ethereum. 

As the first in line, VanEck’s and ARK’s applications are subject to the SEC’s decisions by May 23 and May 24, respectively.

The sources involved in the meetings between Bitcoin ETF issuers and the SEC have reported that the discussions have been primarily “one-sided,” with agency staff not engaging in substantive details about the proposed products. 

This starkly contrasts the intensive and detailed discussions between issuers and the agency before the SEC’s landmark approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January. 

The issuers argued during the meetings that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum futures-based ETFs by the SEC in October set a precedent for the spot ETH products. They also made efforts to address potential regulatory concerns. 

Despite their arguments, the report notes that the SEC staff did not clarify specific concerns or engage in meaningful dialogue, further indicating a possible denial of the requests.

Setback For Crypto Industry

If these expectations materialize, it would be a setback for the cryptocurrency industry, which had hoped that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs would pave the way for similar products and contribute to the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies. 

According to Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF analysis at data firm VettaFi, the likely delay in approval or rejection until later in 2024 or beyond has left the regulatory landscape uncertain.

While some issuers have expressed their intention to submit additional disclosure paperwork to continue the conversation with the SEC, the overall sentiment indicates a growing belief that the applications will be rejected.

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck has already stated that the company’s application will likely be rejected, while ARK Investment Management has yet to comment.

Rejected Ethereum ETFs Could Spark Potential Court Battles

Several applicants expect the SEC to cite broader issues, such as the nature and depth of statistical data on the underlying ETH market, as reasons for their decision in the event of ETF rejections. 

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, which has filed for a spot in Ethereum ETF, believes that the SEC may require more time to observe Ethereum futures and gather additional data.

Industry insiders further speculate that rejecting Ethereum ETFs could potentially lead to legal action, with one source suggesting that the courts may get involved before Ethereum ETFs eventually become a reality.

The anticipated rejection has already influenced the price of Ethereum, with Hong Fang, president of the crypto exchange OKX, stating that the cryptocurrency is experiencing downward pressure as market participants factor in the likelihood of a negative outcome.

Ethereum ETFs

Currently, ETH is trading at $3,100, further highlighting the cryptocurrency’s persistent downtrend over broader time frames. Over the past fourteen and thirty days, the token has experienced significant declines of 12% and 14%, respectively.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitwise CIO Unveils 5 Major Forecasts For Bitcoin 2028 Halving, Anticipates A 280% Price Surge

Bitwise Chief Information Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan recently shared five interesting predictions for the next Halving of the Bitcoin (BTC) network, scheduled for 2028. In a comprehensive report, Hougan sheds light on the potential transformations for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

New Investors And ETFs As Catalysts

One of Hougan’s key predictions is that Bitcoin’s volatility will significantly decline by 50%. He argues that the entry of new investors through the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market will drive this decline. 

Hougan said that as financial advisors, family offices, and institutions enter the Bitcoin market, their different investment behaviors – such as portfolio rebalancing and steady drip investments – could introduce counter-cyclical flows, ultimately dampening Bitcoin’s volatility.

Hougan’s second prediction revolves around the allocation of Bitcoin in portfolios. He believes that 5% allocations to Bitcoin will become commonplace in target-date portfolios. As BTC’s volatility decreases and becomes more attractive to institutional investors, Hougan expects a rise in typical portfolio allocations. 

The Bitwise CIO predicts that Bitcoin ETFs will attract over $200 billion in inflows. He highlights their impressive growth and cites their status as the fastest-growing new ETF category of all time. 

Hougan suggests that the ETF market is still in its early stages, with national wirehouses and institutions just beginning their due diligence. Drawing parallels with the rise of gold ETFs, which experienced year-after-year growth in net flows, he anticipates a similar trend for Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin Price Path Toward $250,000

In an intriguing projection, Hougan suggests that central banks will allocate funds to Bitcoin before the next Halving event. He notes that central banks have historically been significant investors in gold, accumulating substantial amounts of the metal. 

However, with Bitcoin’s characteristics as non-debt money and its functional advantages over gold regarding payments and settlement, Hougan believes central banks will be increasingly drawn to Bitcoin. Hougan further noted on this matter:

There is also an element of game theory here. A major central bank adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset would be a game-changer for Bitcoin and, I believe, would contribute to a dramatic increase in prices. Will one central bank try to front-run the others? 

Hougan’s final prediction revolves around Bitcoin’s price. He forecasts that Bitcoin will trade above $250,000 by 2028, an increase of nearly 280% from current levels. 

The Bitwise CIO attributes Bitcoin’s previous exponential growth to its transition from a speculative asset to one with real-world utility. 

Factors such as declining volatility, improved custody options, low correlations to traditional stocks, enhanced accessibility through ETFs, and growing institutional adoption all contribute to Hougan’s optimism regarding Bitcoin’s future progress. Hougan concluded by stating:

With the ETFs launched and gathering assets—and major Wall Street firms lining up behind bitcoin—I suspect the asset will continue to move further into the mainstream. At $250,000, bitcoin would be a $5 trillion asset. Could it go higher? Of course. But $250,000 would represent solid progress between halvings, and I think we’ll see at least that.

Bitcoin

Currently trading at $64,500, BTC is down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours after retesting the $67,000 mark on Tuesday and failing to consolidate above that level.  

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Halving: Anticipating Price Impact, Miner Challenges, And Long-Term Outlook

The highly anticipated Bitcoin Halving event is close, bringing with it heightened expectations regarding the long-term impact on the Bitcoin price. 

There are concerns, however, that this quadrennial event may already be priced in, as Bitcoin recently reached an unprecedented all-time high of $73,700 on March 14.

This surge broke the pattern of previous Halvings, where Bitcoin had never surpassed its previous ATH before the event. However, historical data reveals significant price increases in the year following previous Halvings.

Experts Predict Delayed Bitcoin Halving Price Impact

Analysts argue that the compounding impact of reduced issuance takes several months to materialize, suggesting that the Halving itself may not prompt a significant rally before or immediately after the event. 

Deutsche Bank analysts share this sentiment, highlighting that substantial price increases have typically occurred in the run-up to previous Halvings rather than immediately after them.

Another factor to consider is the increased production costs for Bitcoin miners resulting from the Halving. As the mining reward decreases, participating in the mining process becomes less profitable. 

This has historically led to a decline in the hashrate, the total computational power used for Bitcoin mining. JPMorgan analysts predict that production costs could rise to an average of $42,000 after the Halving.

One JPMorgan analyst wrote, “This estimate is also the level we envisage Bitcoin prices drifting towards once Bitcoin-Halving-induced euphoria subsides after April.”

While these factors may influence short-term price movement, historical data reveals that the price of Bitcoin has experienced significant increases in the year following previous Halvings. 

The respective price gains for the three previous halvings were 8,760%, 2,570%, and 594%. However, it’s important to note that each successive halving has a diminishing impact on the new supply of Bitcoin.

Mining Industry Shake-Up

In the mining sector, Halving could lead to significant revenue losses, estimated to be around $10 billion annually. 

According to Fortune, publicly traded miners have taken measures to increase their resilience, diversify their offerings, and optimize their operations. However, mining stocks have faced challenges, with some experiencing significant declines.

While larger miners may undergo a period of adjustment, smaller miners and pools may be pushed offline. This could result in a wider market share for the surviving miners. 

Experts at private asset management firm Bernstein expect the mining industry to consolidate, with “smaller and less efficient players” potentially selling assets to raise capital and shore up their balance sheets. 

The increased market dominance of the surviving miners is expected to be profitable over the long term, especially with the continued structural demand for Bitcoin from ETFs.

Timing The Bitcoin Bull Market Peak

Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital has provided insights into the potential timing of Bitcoin’s bull market peak based on historical Halving cycles and the current acceleration seen in the market. 

According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has traditionally reached its peak in the bull market approximately 518-546 days after the Halving event.

However, the current cycle has shown signs of unprecedented acceleration, with Bitcoin surpassing previous all-time highs roughly 260 days ahead of historical norms. Nonetheless, the recent “pre-Halving retrace” has slowed down the cycle by around 30 days and counting.

Taking into account this accelerated perspective, if Bitcoin’s bull market peak is measured from the moment it breaks its old all-time high, it may occur 266-315 days later. As Bitcoin achieved new all-time highs in March, this suggests a potential bull market peak in December 2024 or February 2025, according to Rekt’s analysis.

Both perspectives carry significance throughout the cycle, especially if the acceleration trend persists. However, prolonged retracements or consolidation periods can slow down the cycle, potentially pushing the anticipated bull market peak further into the future.

Bitcoin Halving

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $64,300, up from the $59,000 mark reached in the early hours of Friday.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Pre-Halving Jitters: Bitcoin Price Briefly Slips Below $60,000

The Bitcoin price has recently experienced heightened volatility, causing the largest cryptocurrency in the market to briefly drop below the significant threshold of $60,000 for the first time since March 5. 

This price decrease comes just days before the highly anticipated Halving event scheduled for Friday. This event has traditionally been viewed as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin’s value due to its impact on token supply. 

However, market participants are questioning whether the Halving’s effects are already factored into the current market conditions, leading to extended bearish sentiment.

Long-Term Bullish Outlook Prevails

Bitcoin’s decline saw it plummet by 5% to $59,890, though it recovered some losses shortly afterward. Since reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 on March 14, the Bitcoin price has now retraced by approximately 18%. 

The downward trend extended to other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE), which also experienced slumps on Wednesday.

The impending Halving, a quadrennial code update in Bitcoin, has raised concerns among investors as to whether it will be a significant market-moving event or a non-event overshadowed by other factors, such as the ongoing discussions surrounding the Bitcoin ETF market, which has seen a significant decrease in terms of outflows.  

Nathanaël Cohen, co-founder of INDIGO Fund, noted that market participants are de-risking due to this uncertainty and the additional macro factor of tensions in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran, putting further pressure on risk assets.

The recent decline in Bitcoin’s price was further exacerbated by a wave of liquidations in long positions for digital assets. Last Friday alone, approximately $780 million worth of bullish crypto wagers were liquidated within 24 hours. 

Despite the recent market turbulence, some participants maintain a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Some see the recent liquidations and subsequent flushing out of leverage in the crypto market as a positive development. 

Ravi Doshi, head of markets at FalconX, reported increased buying of longer-dated call options on their derivatives desk, suggesting that clients anticipate higher prices in the latter half of the year.

Bitcoin Price Rebounds Above $61,000

Following the brief dip below the $60,000 mark, the Bitcoin price has rebounded, currently trading at $61,600. This recovery is viewed as a bullish sign, with the cryptocurrency’s macro uptrend structure remaining intact as long as price levels of $51,000 and $42,000 are maintained. 

Bitcoin price

The market is closely watching whether the theory suggesting that the Halving price catalyst is already factored into the current market conditions holds. Additionally, the performance of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States and their potential impact on driving the cryptocurrency’s price back to previous highs are of significant interest.

Furthermore, the recent approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF market in Hong Kong is expected to contribute to increased adoption of the leading cryptocurrency. Although some experts do not consider it as significant as the US ETF market, it is anticipated to generate a surge in price and further strengthen Bitcoin’s position.

Ultimately, the outcome of the Halving event, combined with the developments in both the US and Hong Kong ETF markets, remains uncertain. The ability of Bitcoin to regain its bullish momentum and drive increased demand will be closely monitored.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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The $86,500 Bitcoin Question: Will The Halving Spark A Price Surge This April?

The cryptocurrency market has undergone a substantial downturn, with many of the top 100 cryptocurrencies experiencing sharp price drops. Bitcoin, the leading digital asset, hit a low of $61,600 on Tuesday. 

However, industry experts suggest a potential rebound to higher highs may be on the horizon as the highly anticipated Halving event draws near. 

Adrian Zduńczyk, a crypto trader and technical analyst, provides valuable insights into the market dynamics, highlighting key factors such as bull market indicators, ETFs, and the imminent Halving event.

Mixed Signals For BTC

According to Zduńczyk’s analysis, the market exhibits bullish signs, with the 200-week and 50-week moving averages (MAs) at $33,700  and $39,900, respectively. 

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio is 0.55, indicating a favorable trading environment. Additionally, the 7-week correlation with the S&P 500 (SPX) remains firm at 0.71. 

In terms of daily trends, Zduńczyk notes that Bitcoin is currently in a choppy range between $59,000 and $74,000, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rising at $46,600 and the 200-day Bitcoin Production Cost (BPRO) rising at $57,700. 

However, the analyst notes that the medium-term momentum is declining, and the 50-day Average True Range (ATR) volatility has increased to $3270. This suggests that Bitcoin’s overall price trend is losing strength or momentum in the medium-term timeframe.

Bitcoin Aims For $86,500

Zduńczyk highlights the market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is at 65, indicating a state of greed among market participants. The analyst notes that the current phase of the market cycle is characterized by belief. 

Moreover, miners are still profitable at prices above $41,800, and as mining difficulty rises post-Halving, a price spike is expected. 

Notably, previous Halving events have triggered substantial price rallies, with Bitcoin experiencing significant gains of 90X, 30X, and 7X. Importantly, Bitcoin has never returned to Halving prices after these rallies.

Examining seasonality trends, the monthly opening price for April stands at $71,000, suggesting a positive outlook for the month. The average gain for April is estimated at 21.95%, implying an end-of-month target of $86,500, according to Zduńczyk. 

Moreover, the period from April 16 to 30 has historically seen average gains of 14.69%, further reinforcing positive expectations and further price gains for BTC during the upcoming weeks. According to Zduńczyk, this timeframe could attract investors seeking to buy the dip. 

Bitcoin

Despite the overall positive outlook, BTC is trading at $62,600, reflecting a consistent decline over the past month. In the last 30 days, BTC has experienced a 9% drop from its mid-March all-time high of $73,700.

Moreover, in its quest for new highs and surpassing the $80,000 threshold, BTC has encountered a significant obstacle at the $70,000 level. Despite surpassing its all-time high, BTC has struggled to consolidate above this level for over a week.

Nonetheless, as emphasized by Zduńczyk, the potential synergy between the success of the ETF market in the United States and the upcoming Halving event may hold the key to revitalizing BTC’s price trajectory. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Increased Bitcoin ETF Adoption Propels BTC Dominance To Highest Level Since 2021

Bitcoin’s dominance within the cryptocurrency market has reached a three-year high, signaling strong demand for US spot Bitcoin ETF holding the largest digital asset and a challenging period for smaller tokens.

Bitcoin accounted for nearly 55% of the $2.4 trillion digital asset market at the end of last week, a level not seen since April 2021. On Saturday, in particular, BTC’s dominance jumped to 57% as it briefly touched the $67,000 mark. 

The next largest tokens by market share include Ethereum (ETH), Tether’s USDT stablecoin, Binance exchange’s native token Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL).

BTC’s Rise Fueled By Successful US Bitcoin ETF Launches

According to Bloomberg, the recent success of the recently approved US spot Bitcoin ETFs from prominent issuers such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments has played a significant role in Bitcoin’s rise. 

These ETFs have garnered approximately $56 billion in assets, making their debut one of the most successful in fund category history.

Bitcoin

The inflows into these ETFs drove BTC to its current all-time high (ATH) of $73,798 in mid-March, a clear resistance level for the largest cryptocurrency on the market, as evidenced by its inability to consolidate above the $70,000 level following this achievement. 

Although BTC is down about 6% since then, smaller digital assets such as Avalanche (AVAX), Polkadot (DOT), and Chainlink (LINK) have seen more significant declines of nearly 30% over the past month. 

This drop coincided with reduced expectations for looser US monetary policy settings, often fueling speculative gains.

Hong Kong-Listed ETFs Boosts Bitcoin And Ethereum

Institutional investors’ allocations to the US Bitcoin ETF have greatly influenced Bitcoin’s performance relative to the rest of the market. Benjamin Celermajer, director of digital-asset investment at Magnet Capital, noted that strong institutional demand is a key driver.

On Monday, Bitcoin and Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, saw notable price jumps following indications that asset managers are preparing to launch Hong Kong-listed ETFs on both tokens. Bitcoin rose 4.3% to $66,575, while ETH jumped 6.2% to $3,260. 

These rallies had a positive impact on the broader crypto market, lifting other notable tokens such as Polygon (MATIC), Cardano (ADA), the dog-themed meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana, which is now the top 5 cryptocurrency market winner, up over 8% on Monday.

Interestingly, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, which measures the performance of the largest digital assets traded in US dollars, has more than tripled since the beginning of last year, marking a significant rebound from the bear market experienced in 2022.

Lastly, investors and traders eagerly anticipate the upcoming Bitcoin Halving, an event that will cut the new supply of the token in half, expected around April 20th. 

Previous Halving events have acted as a tailwind for prices, although there are growing doubts about whether history will repeat itself given BTC’s recent all-time high achievement. 

Bitcoin ETF

BTC has successfully maintained its position above the $66,000 threshold and has consolidated in this range. However, it is important to note that losses have accumulated over longer time frames. 

Over the past fourteen and thirty days of trading, the cryptocurrency has experienced significant declines of over 21% and 24% respectively.

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Is The Bull Run Nearing its End? Marathon CEO Asserts Bitcoin ‘Halving’ Rally Already Priced In

In anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin Halving event, which is expected to occur later this month, Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel believes that the price impact may already be factored into the market to a certain extent. 

Thiel shared his insights in a recent interview with Bloomberg, in which he discussed the potential catalysts for further price increases and their implications for the mining industry.

Bitcoin Halving Impact Mitigated By ETF Surge? 

The “halving” event, a software code update that occurs approximately every four years, is often regarded as a key driver of Bitcoin’s price appreciation. The update will reduce the block reward for miners by half, meaning they will receive fewer Bitcoins as a reward for validating transactions on the blockchain. 

However, Thiel noted that the impact of The Halving may not be as significant this time, as the recent approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has already attracted substantial capital to the market. Thiel explained: 

The ETF approval, which has been a huge success, has attracted capital into the market and essentially brought forward what could have been the price appreciation we typically would have seen three to six months post-halving. So I think we are seeing part of that now already and that has put forward some of the demand.

While the halving event is expected to reduce the daily supply of new Bitcoins by approximately 450, Thiel believes the price impact may be relatively modest. 

However, the Marathon CEO expressed excitement about the positive price trend leading up to the halving, stating: 

As miners, we are very excited to go into a halving, where for once prices have not declined prior to the halving rather prices have gone up so everybody is obviously maximizing to that.

Balancing ETF Inflows And Previous Halving Patterns

Thiel’s observations come amidst the noteworthy inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which have amassed nearly $12 billion in just three months of trading in the United States. 

While these inflows may have contributed to the current price appreciation, historical data reveals that Bitcoin still possesses considerable growth potential leading up to The Halving.

To gain a comprehensive understanding, it is crucial to examine the recent surge in Bitcoin’s value, which has soared by nearly 370% from its bear market low of $15,400 to an all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 on March 14, 2024. 

In conjunction with this surge, past halving events provide valuable insights into Bitcoin’s price movements and the likelihood of surpassing the significant milestone of $100,000.

During the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin’s price experienced a remarkable surge from a low of $13 to a peak of $1,152 the following year, illustrating an impressive increase of 8,753%. 

Similarly, the second halving event in July 2016 witnessed Bitcoin’s price ascending from $664 to a new ATH of $17,760, reflecting a surge of 2,580% after the halving. 

The most recent Halving event in May 2020 saw Bitcoin’s price reach a significant milestone of $67,000, surging from a low of $9,730, which accounted for a substantial increase of 593% following the halving.

In perspective, while the potential scenario outlined by Thiel suggests that The Halving may be partially priced in due to the influence of ETF inflows, historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin still has plenty of room to run before the event. 

Several market pundits have also set their price targets for this bull run at the coveted $100,000 level in light of the upcoming halving event.

However, it remains to be seen how the price of Bitcoin will react, taking into account factors such as the influx of capital through ETFs, historical data, and potential market dynamics.

Bitcoin halving

Currently, BTC is trading at $68,400, down 0.4% from yesterday’s price. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin Q1 Performance Digest: 70% Price Surge, Inflows Into ETFs, And Expansion Of Layer TVL Revealed

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown an impressive performance in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024, as highlighted in a recent report by market intelligence data research firm Messari. The research firm finds key factors contributing to Bitcoin’s price increase, market cap dominance, and the emergence of new trends in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Inscription Activities Drive Bitcoin Fees Up

Analyzing the key figures detailed in the report, Bitcoin’s price experienced a significant increase in Q1 2024, rising 68.78% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) to reach an all-time high (ATH) of $73,100. 

This price increase propelled Bitcoin’s market cap dominance to 49.7% in March 2024. Interestingly, the research firm notes that such dominance is a typical feature at the start of a new halving cycle, with Bitcoin often leading the way for other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin

Another relevant figure is the inscription activity in Q4 2023, which drove fees up by 699.4% QoQ. However, in Q1 2024, subscription-related fees decreased by 41.9%. Despite declining total fees, inscription-related transactions still accounted for 18.4% of Bitcoin’s total fees, demonstrating their continued relevance.

Average daily transactions and daily active addresses also experienced a decline of 15.3% and 4.7% QoQ, respectively. The report suggests that the decline in transaction activity may be attributed to decreased activity from bots or “super users.” This shift aligns with the decrease in inscription-related activities and fees. 

Inscription-related activity initially surged in February 2023, leading to a considerable transaction increase. Although Q1 2024 witnessed a decline in inscription-related activity QoQ, it remained significantly higher year-over-year (YoY), indicating its continued impact on the network. 

ETFs Amassed 212,000 BTC In Q1

Messari highlights that Q1 2024 showed the growth of programmable layers in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Established layers such as Rootstock and Stacks led the way regarding total value locked (TVL), while newer layers such as BOB and Merlin experienced rapid growth. 

TVL’s 127% QoQ growth was primarily in non-BTC assets, as Bitcoin-locked amounts lagged behind the Lightning Network and alt-L1 networks, which host significant amounts of BTC.

Ultimately, the approval and launch of nine spot ETFs and one ETF conversion marked a significant milestone for Bitcoin’s legitimization by the US government and traditional finance (TradFi). 

The report notes that these ETFs garnered over $12 billion in inflows within the first month. Notably, BTC ETFs surpassed silver ETFs in assets under management (AUM) but still lagged behind gold ETFs. 

Bitcoin

Institutional BTC holdings were also surpassed by MicroStrategy, the largest institutional holder, with 215,000 BTC. The ETFs accumulated 212,000 BTC in inflows during Q1, further establishing Bitcoin’s prominence in the financial markets.

Bitcoin’s exceptional performance in Q1 2024, marked by a significant price increase and market cap dominance, has solidified its position as the leading cryptocurrency. 

Anticipation for the supply halving, along with the success of BTC ETFs and institutional inflows, has contributed to Bitcoin’s growth and recognition in traditional finance. 

Bitcoin

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin Stuck Below $66,000: Are ETF Outflows Beyond Grayscale An Issue?

On Tuesday, the crypto market was off guard when Cathie Wood’s ARK 21Shares spot Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) experienced a significant outflow. This marked the first time since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States that one of the “Newborn Nine” surpassed the outflows of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). On April 2, ARKB saw outflows of $87.5 million, approximately 1,300 BTC, as reported by Farside Investors, while Grayscale recorded a daily outflow of $81.9 million.

This event marked a notable shift in the Bitcoin market dynamics, raising concerns and debates among investors and analysts alike. The core question that arises is whether such outflows indicate a bearish signal for Bitcoin’s price or if they are a natural part of the market’s ebb and flow.

Are ETF Outflows Beyond Grayscale Concerning?

Bloomberg’s ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, offered an analytical perspective on the event, advocating for a broader view of ETF dynamics. In a series of comments on social media platform X, Balchunas downplayed the severity of the outflows.

“Seeing some of CT up in arms over ARKB having an outflow day, which really shows the greedy and short-sighted nature of some of the folks in this space tbh,” he remarked, suggesting that even the most reputable ETFs, like those offered by Vanguard, periodically experience outflows as part of their operational cycle.

Balchunas further elaborated on the significance of ARKB’s performance, stating, “ARKB has $2.8b in under 3 months on the market. And it’s only the 3rd biggest. I would have guessed 3rd place would be $500m at this point. The inflows have been that epic, and without the ETFs, btc is probably at like $30k.”

This comment highlights the instrumental role of ETFs in bolstering Bitcoin’s market price, suggesting that the recent outflows, while notable, represent a minor setback in the grand scheme.

The analyst also addressed the collective behavior of ETF investors, emphasizing that the recent downturn in Bitcoin’s price should not solely be attributed to ETF outflows. “The ‘ten’ are a team, and yesterday they saw net inflows as a team, yet btc went down like 6% = the selling (as usual) is coming from your fellow supposed hodlers,” he pointed out, hinting at the broader market dynamics and investor behaviors influencing price movements.

Renowned crypto expert Scott Melker weighed in on the debate, suggesting a possible rationale behind the ARKB outflows. “Probably just a large investor allocating to a different ETF,” Melker commented, indicating the strategic reallocation of assets within the crypto ETF space.

Responding to inquiries about the transparency of ETF transactions, Balchunas highlighted the inherent anonymity of ETF trading, stating, “No way to know, could be someone spooked by volatility, […] could have been ARK itself taking profits […] Not even the issuer knows who is going in and out of their ETFs. That anonymity is an underrated feature of ETFs,” thereby shedding light on the privacy aspects that differentiate ETFs from other investment vehicles.

Bitcoin Inflows Are Positive Again

Despite the concerns raised by the recent outflows, the ETF market demonstrated resilience yet again with positive flows of $113.5 million yesterday. Fidelity led the pack with $116.7 million in inflows, followed by Blackrock with $42 million and Bitwise with $23 million. ARKB had zero activity. GBTC did $75 million of outflows.

Renowned analyst WhalePanda commented, “Not much more to say now, price is going sideways. The big outflows on GBTC are over. Just consolidation and accumulation. 16 days until halving. Currently we [need] $60 million per day to buy up the daily mined supply. In 2.5 weeks that’s only $30 million at these prices.”

At press time, BTC traded at $66,217.

Bitcoin price

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The Bulls Are Back: Spot Bitcoin Inflows Surge With New Records

Bitcoin bulls look to be firmly back in the driver’s seat following weeks of seeing BTC suffer a bearish sentiment with its price dips. The current bullish outlook for the flagship crypto is evident in the fact that the Spot Bitcoin ETFs are again recording an impressive amount of inflows. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record $243 Million In Inflows

Farside Investors revealed in an X (formerly Twitter) post that the Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $243 million in inflows on March 27. This record was primarily thanks to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and the ARK 21Shares’ Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), which saw individual inflows of $323.8 million and $200.7 million, respectively. 

These inflows were enough to overshadow the $299.8 million that Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF GBTC recorded on the day. Meanwhile, this marks the third consecutive day that these Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows, having seen net outflows throughout last week. These funds recorded an inflow of $418 million and $15.4 million on March 26 and 25, respectively. 

This is undoubtedly a welcome development for the crypto community, considering that analysts at JPMorgan already predicted that the wave of profit-taking from the BTC ETFs could last until Halving. Therefore, seeing sustained inflows into these ETFs could mean that the sentiment among these ETF investors has changed. 

Irrespective of the current outlook for these ETFs, there is reason to be confident about their future trajectory and how much funds could still flow into the Bitcoin ecosystem. Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Bitwise, recently suggested that the demand for these Bitcoin ETFs is far from its peak. That means that these funds could still witness an astonishing amount of inflows.

BTC Still Primed For More Upside Move Before Halving

The current bullish sentiment towards BTC suggests that the flagship crypto move could see further moves to the upside before the Halving event in mid-April. Besides the Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are back to recording net inflows, other fundamentals hint at a price surge for BTC soon enough. 

NewsBTC recently reported that the supply of BTC on centralized exchanges (CEX) has been declining lately, which means that the sell pressure for the crypto token has reduced significantly. With Bitcoin whales cooling off on selling, that leaves room for BTC to embark on an upward trend. 

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at around $70,300, up in the last 24 hours according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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This Bitcoin Halving May Not Result In Supply Squeeze: Glassnode

Glassnode has suggested that the upcoming Bitcoin halving might not result in a supply squeeze that the market may have anticipated.

Bitcoin Halving May Not Carry Same Impact Due To Spot ETFs

In a new report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed the impact the next Bitcoin halving may have on the economics of the cryptocurrency.

The “halving” is a periodic event for BTC where its block rewards (the rewards the miners receive for adding blocks on the network) are permanently cut in half.

This event is built into the coin’s code, meaning it happens automatically. The halving kicks in after every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years.

The next such event will take place sometime in the coming month. Historically, the halving has been considered an important event for the asset due to how it influences its supply dynamics.

The block rewards the miners receive are the only way to introduce new BTC tokens into circulation. Since they get tightened during these events, the cryptocurrency’s production rate slows down following them.

As such, halvings are considered bullish events, with the price increasing following them due to the constrained supply, as supply-demand dynamics would dictate.

“However, the current market conditions differ from historical norms,” says Glassnode. The reason behind that is simple; there is something now that was never there in the past: the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Spot ETFs are investment vehicles that buy and hold Bitcoin and allow their users to gain indirect exposure to the cryptocurrency’s price action through them. Since the spot ETFs are available on traditional exchanges, they can be preferable for those not looking to dabble with digital asset platforms and wallets.

Thus, the ETFs have introduced a notable amount of fresh demand for the asset, with supply rapidly leaving the market and entering these funds. To put this demand into perspective, the analytics firm has compared it against the BTC amount miners issue on the chain daily.

Bitcoin Miner Issuance Vs Spot ETFs

As the above chart shows, the Bitcoin ETF flows have generally been much higher than what the miners have been introducing into circulation. Based on this, Glassnode believes “the upcoming halving might not result in the supply squeeze once anticipated.”

The report further says:

The ETFs are, in essence, preempting the halving’s impact by already tightening the available supply through their substantial and continuous buying activity. In other words, the supply squeeze usually expected from halvings may already be in effect due to ETFs’ large-scale bitcoin acquisitions.

Something to note, however, is that the ETFs aren’t certain to always be a bullish influence for the market. Should the current inflow-heavy regime flip to one dominated by outflows, the cryptocurrency could naturally witness extraordinary selling pressure.

In fact, the spot ETF netflows have been negative for Bitcoin for four straight days now, so such a trend shift may already be in action.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had recovered beyond the $68,000 level yesterday, but the coin has since declined again, falling back towards $64,200.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Bitcoin Price Reclaims $66,000 Despite 4-Day ETF Outflow Streak

Despite a continuous four-day streak of net outflows from Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) totaling $93.85 million, the Bitcoin price has impressively climbed to reclaim the $66,000 mark. According to data from Farside Investors, Grayscale ETF GBTC experienced a significant outflow yesterday, with a single-day net outflow of $358 million, culminating in a historical net outflow of $13.63 billion for GBTC alone.

In stark contrast, the BlackRock Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) witnessed a considerable net inflow of $233 million yesterday, raising IBIT’s total net inflow to $13.32 billion. This is slightly below the average for BlackRock, which has seen $271.9 million in inflows since its launch on January 11.

Other ETFs have not fared as well in recent days. Fidelity’s FBTC, the second-largest ETF, has thus far achieved an average daily inflow of $141.5 million, but experienced a disappointing $2.5 million in inflows yesterday.

The third-largest, Ark Invest’s spot Bitcoin ETF, has seen average inflows of $40.9 million to date, with yesterday’s inflows at just $2.0 million. Bitwise’s BITB, ranking fourth, has accumulated $30.7 million on average, with a modest $12 million in inflows yesterday.

Across the board, all spot Bitcoin ETFs, including GBTC, have recorded an average of approximately $230 million in daily inflows since January 11.

Bitcoin ETF flows

Bitcoin Price Stagnates: Reason To Worry?

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju provided insights on the situation via X, stating, “Bitcoin spot ETF netflows are slowing. Demand may rebound if the BTC price approaches critical support levels. New whales, mainly ETF buyers, have a $56K on-chain cost basis. Corrections typically entail a max drawdown of around 30% in bull markets, with a max pain of $51K.”

Crypto analyst WhalePanda highlighted the trend, noting, “Yesterday’s ETF flows: Another negative day, that’s 4 in a row […] Honestly surprised by how big the outflows are from GBTC. Another $358.8 million and that makes a total of $1.83 billion in just 4 days.” WhalePanda also touched on Genesis’ role, suggesting the company’s “in-kind” sale of GBTC shares for BTC might explain the large outflows without corresponding market dumps.

Thomas Fahrer, founder of Apollo, offered a bullish perspective, “I know it is forbidden to post anything bullish on #Bitcoin ETFs right now, but I’m gonna do it anyway. GBTC selling is temporary. Financial advisors and institutions have barely begun buying. $100 BILLION inflows are coming next 1-2 years. Patience.”

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, commented on the Grayscale situation, “Grayscale Bitcoin ETF holdings falling off a cliff. Down 50%, or about $20B at current BTC price. We must be days/weeks away from them slashing fees to stop the bleeding. Blackrock holdings expected to overtake Grayscale before the Halving!”

Although the last few days have been rather disappointing, it is worth noting that the outflows are coming (almost) exclusively from Grayscale’s GBTC, while other investors are holding on tight to their Bitcoin investments. This means that it is only a matter of time before Grayscale’s outflows stop, and even small inflows from the other ETFs make a big impact (without the outflows).

At press time, BTC traded $66,203.

Bitcoin price

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US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Experience Record Outflows, Losing $740 Million In Three Days

The 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their biggest three-day outflow since their debut in January, as reported by Bloomberg. This shift in investor sentiment comes after heightened interest that propelled the largest cryptocurrency in the market to a record high of $73,700.

Bitcoin ETFs See Record Outflows

Between Monday and Wednesday, a net total of $742 million exited the Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and a moderation in subscriptions for similar offerings from prominent firms like BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity Investments (FBTC).

According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has experienced a notable outflow surge. This recent development indicates a “second wind” of investor withdrawals, with a substantial $1.4 billion leaving the trust just this week. 

Bitcoin ETFs

Notably, these withdrawals have surpassed all other ETFs in year-to-date outflows and set a new record for cumulative outflows in ETF history, as shown in the chart above.

Nevertheless, GBTC continues to hold a prominent position in terms of revenue generation. It currently ranks third out of the 3,400 ETFs available, demonstrating its continued financial success.

Despite the recent outflows, the overall performance of these funds remains noteworthy, with net inflows of $11.4 billion recorded since their launch, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This signifies one of the most successful debuts for an ETF category.

Crypto Analyst Predicts “Massive Bounce” For BTC

Bitcoin experienced a significant surge of over 5% in the United States on Wednesday, propelled by signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) hinting at potential interest-rate cuts. 

However, the Asian market painted a different picture on Thursday, with Bitcoin losing momentum compared to continued gains in global stocks and gold. According to Bloomberg, the news of outflows from Bitcoin ETFs permeated markets, contributing to the contrasting performance.

Nonetheless, renowned crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe shared a bold prediction on social media platform X (formerly Twitter). In his post, he expressed optimism about a “massive bounce” for Bitcoin, suggesting the potential for a continuation of its upward trajectory. 

Van de Poppe also predicted that Bitcoin could consolidate in the near term before embarking on another rally towards the all-time high it reached before the halving event, which is expected to begin sometime in April.

Bitcoin ETFs

Currently, BTC is trading at $66,200, reflecting a 4% increase in the past 24 hours despite ongoing outflows in the ETF market. Over longer time frames, Bitcoin has shown consistent gains, with a 27% increase over the past thirty days and an impressive 136% gain year-to-date.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Record-Breaking GBTC Outflows Send Bitcoin Down 14% To $62,000

As reported by Fortune Magazine, the cryptocurrency market has been experiencing significant volatility as Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a sharp decline that has had a domino impact on other cryptocurrencies. The recent drop in the price of Bitcoin, coupled with outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC, has raised concerns among investors. 

Bitcoin Sees 14% Correction From ATH

Bitcoin suffered a 14% drop since reaching its all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 last week, briefly touching $62,483 on Tuesday morning. However, it recovered and stabilized around $64,900, just below the $65,000 mark. 

The decline was attributed to record outflows of over $640 million from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). In comparison, other spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of less than $500 million, resulting in a net outflow of $15 million on Monday, according to Bloomberg ETF expert James Seyffart. 

Bitcoin

This outflow from GBTC, combined with the cautious sentiment surrounding the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the US, has had a significant impact on Bitcoin’s performance.

As recently reported by NewsBTC, investors exhibited caution ahead of the FOMC meeting, closely monitoring the potential changes in interest rates. Recent higher-than-expected inflation data, as indicated by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), dampened expectations of interest rate cuts. 

According to Fortune, the CME FedWatch Tool projected a 99% likelihood of rates remaining unchanged, further affecting market sentiment. Per the report, investors were keen to gauge the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy, contributing to the cautious trading environment.

In the same context, the Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate from -0.1% to 0% to 0.1% in response to rising consumer prices. This was the first rate increase in 17 years.

Crypto Futures Traders Take A Hit

The drop in Bitcoin’s price had a cascading effect on other cryptocurrencies. Major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) experienced significant declines of 8.1% and 12.5% over the past 24 hours, respectively. 

Meme coins, including Floki Inu (FLOKI), Bonk Inu (Bonk), and Dogecoin (DOGE), also suffered losses of 34%, 28.5%, and 24.8%, respectively, during the past week. 

The decline in cryptocurrency prices resulted in over $440 million worth of liquidations for traders of crypto futures. Traders who had leveraged positions betting on higher prices faced significant losses. Most of these liquidations occurred on Binance, totaling $212 million, followed by OKX at $170 million. 

Bitcoin

Despite its price correction, BTC retains substantial gains of over 26% and 132% in the past thirty days and year-to-date timeframe, respectively.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Crypto Market’s ‘Monster Cycle’: $7.5 Trillion Market Value By 2025, Bitcoin Targets $150,000

In a recent Bloomberg report, it has been revealed that the market value of crypto assets is expected to witness a remarkable surge, nearly tripling to $7.5 trillion by 2025. 

Wall Street Firm Predicts “Monster Of A Crypto Cycle”

The next few years are likely to usher in a “monster of a crypto cycle,” according to Wall Street research firm Bernstein. In addition, Bernstein analysts have an “outperform” rating on the stock as they initiate coverage of online brokerage Robinhood Markets. 

Analyst Gautam Chhugani believes investors should take advantage of the opportunity to ride the “crypto comeback arc,” envisioning a “ninefold increase” in Robinhood’s crypto trading volume over the next two years.

Chhugani expressed his confidence in Robinhood’s prospects, stating that now is the opportune time to enter the market with an 18-24 month window to capitalize on the crypto resurgence. Assigning a price target of $30 to the stock, Chhugani’s price target is currently the highest among analysts tracked by Bloomberg.

Following the publication of positive February operating data, which included increases in assets under custody and surging trade volume, Robinhood shares surged as much as 12% in New York trading, reaching the highest intraday level since December 2021. 

So far this year, the stock has gained over 40%. However, Wall Street remains cautious about its outlook, with six analysts rating the stock as a buy, ten suggesting a hold, and three recommending selling.

With the anticipated growth of crypto assets from $2.6 trillion to $7.5 trillion, the largest digital currency, Bitcoin, is set to become a $3 trillion asset by 2025. According to Chhugani, this surge is expected to be fueled by the “unprecedented success” of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to the cryptocurrency. 

Additionally, Chhugani predicts that Bitcoin will reach a high of $150,000 next year. He emphasized the ongoing institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies and expressed expectations for the continued success of the Bitcoin ETF and the potential launch of an Ethereum ETF within the next 12 months.

Robinhood Positioned For Success

In the context of Robinhood, Chhugani highlighted the company’s “full suite crypto offering within a regulated broker platform,” which positions it favorably. Bloomberg notes that traditional broker platforms, such as Charles Schwab Corp., have been more hesitant in offering cryptocurrency services.

Summing up his bullish stance, Chhugani stated: 

In short, we are bullish on crypto, and we believe Robinhood’s crypto business resurgence will restore its fortunes with investors.

The projected exponential growth of the cryptocurrency market and the optimistic outlook for Robinhood’s crypto business have captured the attention of market observers. With the increasing mainstream acceptance and institutional adoption of digital assets, the next few years hold significant potential for investors and market participants alike.

Crypto

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin ETFs See Record $1 Billion Inflows, Pushing Price Over $73,500

Yesterday, the Bitcoin price journey resembled a high-intensity rollercoaster ride, initially soaring past the $73,000 mark before encountering a tumultuous liquidation event. This event saw over $361 million worth of leveraged trades unwound, compelling the BTC price to retract sharply to below $68,300.

The drastic price fluctuation primarily affected long position holders—investors who speculated on a continued price rise—with a staggering $258 million wiped out. Subsequently, Bitcoin’s price staged a remarkable V-shaped recovery, during which short sellers found themselves on the losing end, with just over $103 million in positions liquidated.

This data by Coinglass marks the event as the most significant purge of long positions since March 5. At that time, Bitcoin experienced a decline to $60,800 following its climb to a then all-time high of approximately $69,000.

Bitcoin ETFs Register Record $1 Billion Inflows

Perhaps spurred by the opportunity presented by the price dip, investors in spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) engaged in a buying spree, unprecedented in its intensity. For the first time, spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed a daily inflow surpassing $1 billion on Tuesday, March 12, primarily driven by an inflow of $849 million to BlackRock’s IBIT. According to detailed data released by Farside Investors, the total net inflows across all Bitcoin ETFs were at $1045 million (or $1.045 billion).

The second largest Bitcoin ETF to date, Fidelity, saw a rather quiet day  with FBTC taking in only $51.6 million, while Ark Invest ($93 million), Bitwise ($24.6 million), Valkyrie ($39.6 million) and VanEck ($82.9 million) saw relatively strong capital inflows. Notably, Grayscale‘s GBTC saw a waning outflow of just $79 million.

Bitcoin analyst Alessandro Ottaviani shared his insights on X, underscoring the magnitude of these inflows, “1 Billy of Total net Inflow! ONE BILLION DOLLARS! […] In the last twelve trading days, The Nine inflow has been $9.2b, with an average of $768m per day. Just imagine if we keep this pace and it is confirmed that GBCT outflow is almost exhausted.”

Crypto Quant analyst Maartunn provided additional context to the inflow’s impact, revealing, “JUST IN: The Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has experienced its highest inflows ever, with an additional 14,706.2 BTC.” This statement further emphasizes the substantial increase in Bitcoin’s demand, potentially setting it up for a major supply squeeze.

Adding to the conversation, crypto analyst @venturefounder suggested potential future price movements based on the current trend, “Absolute Bitcoin madness […] The 5-day moving average net inflow has fully recovered to peak. So… probably HIGHER. If this continues, $80-90k by the end of month is not far fetched. No correction has lasted longer than 24 hours on the weekdays. Interestingly, the first major correction of the 2021 cycle came when price went 2x previous ATH. So could we see no major correction until $120k?”

At press time, BTC already surpassed the $73,500 mark and traded at $73,392.

Bitcoin price

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MicroStrategy Increases Bitcoin Bet With $822M Purchase, Adds 12,000 BTC To Treasury

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues its unprecedented uptrend, surging to a new all-time high (ATH) of $72,300, software company MicroStrategy remains steadfast in its vision. It is reaping substantial rewards from its strategic investment in the largest cryptocurrency in the market. 

MicroStrategy, led by renowned Bitcoin supporter and former CEO Michael Saylor, recently made a major acquisition, further solidifying its position in the digital asset market.

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Investment Pays Off

According to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), MicroStrategy acquired approximately 12,000 BTC between February 26, 2024, and March 10, 2024, for approximately $821.7 million in cash. The average purchase price per Bitcoin was $68,400. 

Additionally, MicroStrategy recently completed an offering of convertible senior notes due 2030, raising $800 million in funds. With this latest acquisition, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings now stand at a staggering 205,000 BTC, acquired for $6.9 billion.

Microstrategy

MicroStrategy’s stock trades at $1,557, representing a remarkable 9% gain within 24 hours. The company’s shares have demonstrated a sustained and continuous upward trajectory since February 26, coinciding with Bitcoin’s $50,000 consolidation phase breakthrough. 

Over two weeks, Bitcoin surged to its present trading price, establishing a notable correlation between the leading cryptocurrency and MicroStrategy. This correlation has further solidified the company’s strategy and contributed to its stock’s performance.

MicroStrategy’s strategic investment in Bitcoin has yielded remarkable results. The company now boasts a profit of $7.7 billion on its Bitcoin holdings, which translates to a remarkable return of 112% so far as Bitcoin breaks new all-time highs.

ETF Expert Astounded By Bitcoin ETF Success

The rapid rise of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) has surpassed even the most optimistic projections. Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas highlighted the growth of these funds in a recent post on social media site X (formerly Twitter). The expert noted that assets under management (AUM) surpassed $55 billion, and trading volume reached an impressive $110 billion. 

Microstrategy

Balchunas acknowledged that achieving such numbers in just two months was nothing short of “absurd,” far exceeding what would normally be considered successful even at the end of a full year.

In addition, in a surprising turn of events for the ETF expert, Blackrock’s IBIT ETF and Fidelity’s FBTC have emerged as the leaders among all ETFs in terms of year-to-date (YTD) flows through the middle of March. This unexpected feat positions these Bitcoin ETF offerings as major players in the ETF market, attracting the attention and interest of investors seeking exposure to the digital asset.

Microstrategy

Currently, BTC continues its uptrend, aiming to solidify and consolidate above the $70,000 threshold, which would put the cryptocurrency in a good position to reach the $100,000 mark in the rest of the year. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin ETF Frenzy: BlackRock Smashes Expectations With $788 Million Inflows In One Day

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, achieved a remarkable milestone on March 5. Attracting a staggering $788 million, it exceeded its previous record of $612 million in inflows in a single day. This surge in investment coincided with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $69,300, surpassing its previous ATH set in 2021.

Bitcoin ETF Trading Volumes Reaches Record $10 Billion

Shortly after Bitcoin hit its new milestone, the market experienced a notable price correction, dropping below $60,000. However, this dip seemed to entice ETF buyers who saw it as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at a discounted price. 

As a result, the Bitcoin price has quickly recovered and reached the $65,200 level, positioning itself for further price gains and consolidation above its ATH.

Bitcoin ETF

According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, the ten Bitcoin ETFs traded a staggering $10 billion in volume on the same day, breaking the previous record set just a week ago. 

The expert noted that this surge in trading activity is not entirely unexpected, as volatility and volume often go hand in hand with ETFs. Balchunas also highlighted that several ETFs, including Blackrock’s IBIT, Fidelity (FBTC), Bitwise (BITB), and Arkham (ARKB), achieved record-breaking trading volumes.

Interestingly, while the Bitcoin ETFs experienced a surge in inflows, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued its trend of outflows since the ETFs launched on January 11. 

Balchunas noted that GBTC has seen nearly $10 billion in outflows, yet its total assets under management remain unchanged since its launch. This phenomenon can be attributed to the bull market subsidy, wherein investors continue to hold assets despite outflows, generating revenue for the trust.

A Temporary Halt Before Further Gains?

Bitcoin’s recent price action has encountered resistance at its ATH level of $69,000, signaling a temporary rejection from this crucial point. This coincides with the activation of the Golden Ratio Multiplier, the first and only cycle top indicator to have fired thus far.

The Golden Ratio Multiplier, an indicator often used in technical analysis, has seen its cycle top band (level 5) rise to $69,099, aligning perfectly with Bitcoin’s recent peak. However, considering this is the sole indicator predicting a cycle top, some analysts, including Crypto Con, believe that a significant market correction may not have occurred yet.

Bitcoin ETF

According to Crypto Con, this current phase represents a temporary resting place for Bitcoin’s early parabolic ascent. Crypto Con suggests that once Bitcoin breaks through the ATH, it will begin a new phase characterized by heightened market activity and potential price gains. 

Bitcoin ETF

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF Launches In Brazil, ETF Market Secures 4% Of Total BTC Supply

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, announced the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT39) launch in Brazil on Thursday. Starting today, Friday, March 1, shares of this index fund, which tracks the spot price of Bitcoin (BTC), will be traded on the Brazilian Commodities and Futures Exchange, known as B3.

BlackRock Launches IBIT39 Bitcoin ETF In Brazil

Karina Saade, president of BlackRock in Brazil, highlighted the company’s commitment to providing high-quality access vehicles to investors in the digital asset market. She stated:

IBIT39 is a natural progression of our efforts over many years and builds on the fundamental capabilities we have established so far in the digital asset market.

Felipe Gonçalves, Superintendent of Interest and Currency Products at B3 discussed the growth of the listed crypto market in Brazil. He noted that the market, which started in 2021, now has 13 ETFs with total assets of R$2.5 billion, or about $505 million.

While the market experienced fluctuations in its early years, it reached an eye-catching daily trading volume of R$30 million reais ($6.6 million) by the end of last year, according to local media reports in Brazil. 

Gonçalves mentioned that investors in crypto ETFs include institutional investors, such as funds, and individual investors, with a current number of 170,000. Liquidity in the market is provided by non-residents investing in B3 as a whole.

IBIT39 will reportedly have a management fee of 0.25%, with a one-year waiver that reduces the fee to 0.12% once the fund reaches its first $5 billion in assets under management (AUM). The product will be made available to the general public, allowing broader participation in the Bitcoin market.

$7.5B Net Inflow In Bitcoin ETFs Since Launch In The US

BlackRock’s IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) ETF has emerged as a notable player in the US ETF race, countering a significant outflow from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

BitMEX research data shows that on February 29, 2024, positive flows amounted to $92 million for the day. Notably, BlackRock and GBTC offset each other, experiencing $600 million in opposite directions. The data shows that since the ETFs began trading on January 11, 2024, there has been an impressive net inflow of $7.5 billion.

The overall holdings of spot funds, which directly hold Bitcoin, stood at 776,464 BTC (equivalent to $47.7 billion) on Friday morning, according to BitMEX Research. It’s essential to consider that the total BTC supply currently in circulation is 19.64 million, with a maximum limit of 21 million. 

With this context, the fact that the ETFs have secured 4% of the total BTC supply is a significant milestone. It demonstrates the growing demand for Bitcoin among investors utilizing these index funds to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency.

Blackrock

BTC continues to consolidate above the $62,000 mark, rising 1.3% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin ETF Breaks Records: BlackRock’s IBIT Joins Elite ‘$10 Billion Club’ Amidst Soaring Demand

The demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has surged since their recent approval on January 10, with BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF leading the way. This ETF has reached impressive milestones in less than two months, attracting significant investor interest and opening doors for various market participants to invest in the largest cryptocurrency directly. 

As institutional and retail investors flock to these new investment vehicles, market experts predict a bullish trend and anticipate a potential price surge.

Bitcoin ETF Frenzy

According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF has quickly joined the esteemed “$10 billion club,” reaching the milestone faster than any other ETF, including Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), noting that only 152 ETFs out of 3,400 have crossed the threshold.

Balchunas notes that IBIT’s ascent to this club was primarily driven by significant inflows, which accounted for 78% of its assets under management (AUM). This reflects the growing appetite for Bitcoin exposure among investors seeking diversified and regulated investment options.

In particular, the current trajectory of the ETF market paints a picture of resilience and bullish sentiment in the market. Equity ETF flows, and leveraged trading levels are positive indicators, although they have not yet reached the euphoria seen in 2021, Balchunas notes. 

However, Bloomberg’s new BI ETF Greed/Fear Indicator, which incorporates various inputs, highlights the optimistic outlook shared by ETF investors, as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin ETF

On this matter, crypto analyst “On-Chain College” went to social media X (formerly Twitter) to emphasize the significant demand for Bitcoin as evidenced by its rapid departure from exchanges. 

In its analysis, On-Chain College highlights that Bitcoin ETFs buy approximately ten times the daily amount of BTC mined. At the same time, the upcoming halving event will further reduce the mining supply. The analyst predicts when demand will exceed available supply, leading to potential upward price pressure.

Highest Monthly Close Since 2021

Bitcoin’s recent market performance has caught the attention of wealth manager Caleb Franzen, who highlights the significance of the highest monthly close since October 2021. 

Franzen further emphasizes the bullish momentum by pointing out that the 36-month Williams%R Oscillator has closed above the overbought level for only the fourth time in history. Historical data reveals impressive returns following such signals, indicating the potential for substantial gains in the coming months. 

Bitcoin ETF

Additionally, Franzen notes the changing dynamics of the market, with increased institutional participation and the ease of retail onboarding through ETFs.

Franzen presents a compelling case for the bullish nature of overbought signals, urging market participants to view them as momentum indicators rather than signals to fade. Previous instances of overbought signals have resulted in significant Bitcoin price appreciation:

  • February 2013: +3,900% in 9 months
  • December 2016: +1,900% in 12 months
  • November 2020: +260% in 12 months

While acknowledging diminishing returns in each cycle, Franzen highlights the unprecedented level of institutional participation and the ease of retail access through ETFs. 

Even if Bitcoin were to match the +260% gain from the November 2020 signal, it would reach a price of $180,000, surpassing Franzen’s minimum cycle target of $175,000. 

Ultimately, Franzen notes that bull markets are typically characterized by a rising ETHBTC ratio and a falling BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance). While these characteristics have yet to manifest fully, Franzen suggests that a multi-quarter rally in the broader cryptocurrency market may be on the horizon.

Bitcoin ETF

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com