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Bitcoin ETF Breaks Records: BlackRock’s IBIT Joins Elite ‘$10 Billion Club’ Amidst Soaring Demand

The demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has surged since their recent approval on January 10, with BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF leading the way. This ETF has reached impressive milestones in less than two months, attracting significant investor interest and opening doors for various market participants to invest in the largest cryptocurrency directly. 

As institutional and retail investors flock to these new investment vehicles, market experts predict a bullish trend and anticipate a potential price surge.

Bitcoin ETF Frenzy

According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF has quickly joined the esteemed “$10 billion club,” reaching the milestone faster than any other ETF, including Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), noting that only 152 ETFs out of 3,400 have crossed the threshold.

Balchunas notes that IBIT’s ascent to this club was primarily driven by significant inflows, which accounted for 78% of its assets under management (AUM). This reflects the growing appetite for Bitcoin exposure among investors seeking diversified and regulated investment options.

In particular, the current trajectory of the ETF market paints a picture of resilience and bullish sentiment in the market. Equity ETF flows, and leveraged trading levels are positive indicators, although they have not yet reached the euphoria seen in 2021, Balchunas notes. 

However, Bloomberg’s new BI ETF Greed/Fear Indicator, which incorporates various inputs, highlights the optimistic outlook shared by ETF investors, as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin ETF

On this matter, crypto analyst “On-Chain College” went to social media X (formerly Twitter) to emphasize the significant demand for Bitcoin as evidenced by its rapid departure from exchanges. 

In its analysis, On-Chain College highlights that Bitcoin ETFs buy approximately ten times the daily amount of BTC mined. At the same time, the upcoming halving event will further reduce the mining supply. The analyst predicts when demand will exceed available supply, leading to potential upward price pressure.

Highest Monthly Close Since 2021

Bitcoin’s recent market performance has caught the attention of wealth manager Caleb Franzen, who highlights the significance of the highest monthly close since October 2021. 

Franzen further emphasizes the bullish momentum by pointing out that the 36-month Williams%R Oscillator has closed above the overbought level for only the fourth time in history. Historical data reveals impressive returns following such signals, indicating the potential for substantial gains in the coming months. 

Bitcoin ETF

Additionally, Franzen notes the changing dynamics of the market, with increased institutional participation and the ease of retail onboarding through ETFs.

Franzen presents a compelling case for the bullish nature of overbought signals, urging market participants to view them as momentum indicators rather than signals to fade. Previous instances of overbought signals have resulted in significant Bitcoin price appreciation:

  • February 2013: +3,900% in 9 months
  • December 2016: +1,900% in 12 months
  • November 2020: +260% in 12 months

While acknowledging diminishing returns in each cycle, Franzen highlights the unprecedented level of institutional participation and the ease of retail access through ETFs. 

Even if Bitcoin were to match the +260% gain from the November 2020 signal, it would reach a price of $180,000, surpassing Franzen’s minimum cycle target of $175,000. 

Ultimately, Franzen notes that bull markets are typically characterized by a rising ETHBTC ratio and a falling BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance). While these characteristics have yet to manifest fully, Franzen suggests that a multi-quarter rally in the broader cryptocurrency market may be on the horizon.

Bitcoin ETF

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin Long-Term Call: Analyst Predicts Price To Soar To $500,000

As Bitcoin makes its way through the erratic waves of the cryptocurrency market, crypto analysts are still bullish about the asset, predicting BTC to reach unprecedented heights in the long run. 

Bitcoin To Reach $500,000 In The Long-Term

Bitcoin is currently in the spotlight as crypto expert Michael Van De Poppe has shared a bold prediction regarding BTC’s future with the community on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter). 

According to Poppe, Bitcoin is presently experiencing an “overly bullish sentiment” from market participants within the cryptocurrency space. Due to this, he claims that there is “a likelihood” for the crypto asset to reach $500,000 in the long term.

Poppe also warned investors about upcoming severe corrections prior to the surge. However, he has urged them to take the dip as a “giant buying opportunity” to position themselves for future gains.

The post read:

The overly bullish sentiment is great for Bitcoin. Long-term, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $500,000 is definitely there. However, corrections will happen and they will be rough. If Bitcoin corrects by 20% or more, use those as a giant buying opportunity. That’s it.

The analyst’s prediction has sent quite a frenzy in the crypto community, with several enthusiasts expressing their belief in the forecast. A pseudonymous X user stated that he agrees with the projections while noting that “BTC has the potential to grow in the long-term.”

Poppe has also shed light on his “game plan” for the upcoming period for the digital asset. He pointed out two distinct aspects of the plan in light of Bitcoin’s corrections.

“Survive a potential Bitcoin correction, as Bitcoin is at the end of this run and probably consolidating,” he stated. In addition, he has encouraged investors to navigate their investment toward Ethereum during the time of the retracement. He added that investors should hold their ETH for about “1 to 2 months and wait in cash until the correction is over.” 

BTC Is The Ultimate Safe Haven

Michael Van De Poppe is not the only analyst who believes Bitcoin has the potential to achieve the $500,000 mark. Max Keiser, a financial journalist, has also predicted that BTC will reach the aforementioned price target.

Keiser appears to be anticipating a significant crash in the stock market drawing a similar scenario to the 1987 crash. Consequently, he believes Bitcoin to be a safe haven during this period, as he expects the token to “soar past $500,000.”

The expert also noted that BTC ETFs and domestic miners will be confiscated by the US government within this period. However, despite this action, Keiser reckoned that BTC would still see more inflows than Gold in the market.

Bitcoin

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Bitcoin ETFs Threaten Gold’s Dominance As Digitalization Trends Gain Momentum

In just over a month since their approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bitcoin ETFs have swiftly gained traction in the market, posing a formidable challenge to the long-standing dominance of gold ETFs.

Bitcoin ETFs Gain Ground on Gold ETFs

The rapid rise of Bitcoin ETFs has led to a convergence in asset values, with BTC ETFs closing the gap with gold ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs hold approximately $37 billion in assets after only 25 trading days, while gold ETFs have accumulated $93 billion in over 20 years of trading. 

Bitcoin ETFs

In this regard, Bloomberg’s Senior Commodity Strategist, Mike McGlone, emphasizes the shifting landscape, stating, “Tangible Gold is Losing Luster to Intangible Bitcoin.” 

According to McGlone, the US stock market’s continued resilience, the US currency’s strength, and 5% interest rates have presented headwinds for gold. Moreover, as the world increasingly embraces digitalization, the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States adds further competition to the precious metal.

McGlone further states that while the bias for gold prices remains upward, investors who solely focus on gold may risk falling behind potential paradigm-shifting digitalization trends. 

Ultimately, McGlone suggests that investors should consider diversifying their portfolios by incorporating Bitcoin or other digital assets to stay ahead in the evolving investment landscape.

Bitcoin Rally Driven By Institutional Demand 

The success of Bitcoin ETFs is further demonstrated by recent data suggesting that the upward trend in Bitcoin prices is driven primarily by institutional demand. At the same time, retail participation appears to be declining.

According to analyst Ali Martinez, as the price of Bitcoin continues to hover between $51,800 and $52,100, there has been a noticeable decrease in the creation of new Bitcoin addresses daily, indicating a lack of retail participation in the current bull rally and highlighting the growing influence of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin ETFs

However, market expert Crypto Con points out a significant shift in Long-Term Bitcoin holder positions, signaling a potential downside movement. 

As seen in the chart below shared by Crypto Con, the position change line crossed below -50.00 for the first time in over a year, a pattern that has historically occurred at critical moments in Bitcoin’s market cycles. These moments include the cycle bottom, mid-top (which occurred only once), and the start/end of a cycle top parabola (which occurred most frequently).

Bitcoin ETFs

According to Crypto Con, this recent shift in long-term holder positions raises two possible scenarios: a mid-top or an imminent parabolic movement. Such a movement at this stage in the cycle is considered unusual. 

Primarily, it indicates that long-term Bitcoin holders are exiting their positions in significant numbers, possibly anticipating a market correction or a change in the overall trend.

Overall, the shift in Bitcoin holder positions and the decline in retail participation present contrasting dynamics in the current market landscape. While institutional demand continues to drive the price of Bitcoin higher, long-term holders appear to be taking profit or adjusting their positions. 

BTC chart

While BTC is currently trading at $51,800, it remains to be seen what the direction of the next move will be and how institutions will continue to influence the price action of the largest cryptocurrency as spot Bitcoin ETFs gain traction.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin ETFs Boosts Coinbase (COIN) Shares As JPMorgan Upgrades Rating

The recent Bitcoin rally, propelling its price to the $52,000 level, has positively impacted the stock of US-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN). After experiencing a notable dip to $115 at the start of February, Coinbase’s stock rose to $172 on Thursday, following a significant upgrade by a JPMorgan analyst.

Improved Prospects For Coinbase Amid Crypto Rally

According to a Bloomberg report, JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington abandoned his bearish view on Coinbase weeks after downgrading the stock. 

As Bitcoin traded higher, Coinbase shares gained as much as 7.8% following the upgrade. Worthington believes the exchange will likely benefit from the recent rally in digital asset prices, prompting him to shift his rating back to neutral.

This change in stance comes after Worthington’s January downgrade, where he predicted a potential deflation of enthusiasm for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

However, contrary to his previous forecast, Bitcoin ETFs have been successful in terms of trading measures, and the price of Bitcoin has surged beyond $52,000, reaching its highest level since 2021. In a note to clients on Thursday, Worthington explained:

Given the acceleration in recent days of flows into Bitcoin ETFs and the significant price appreciation of Bitcoin and now Ethereum, we are returning to a Neutral rating on Coinbase as we see the higher cryptocurrency prices not only sustaining but improving activity levels and Coinbase’s earnings power as we look to 1Q24.

Coinbase

Coinbase’s stock experienced an 8% dip at the beginning of the year, following an impressive 400% surge in 2023. Analyst opinions on the stock remain divided, with buy, hold, and sell recommendations being roughly evenly split. 

Worthington maintained his $80 price target on the stock ahead of the company’s earnings report, which is scheduled to be released after the market closes on Thursday.

Worthington emphasized that Coinbase’s business is closely tied to token prices, with its core revenue being transaction-based. As the value of tokens increases and trading activity gains momentum, fees based on the value traded are expected to drive higher trading volumes, ultimately contributing to improved revenue for Coinbase.

Bitcoin ETFs Witness Significant Trading Volume 

On February 14th, the trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs showcased notable figures, with Blackrock’s IBIT recording the lead with $721 million in volume. 

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) followed closely with $619 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC secured the third spot with $456 million. On the other hand, Ark Invest accumulated a volume of $169 million.

The nine ETFs’ total trading volume amounted to approximately $1.5 billion. Notably, the largest ETFs experienced higher trading volume than the previous day, with IBIT surpassing $700 million and GBTC exceeding $600 million.

Coinbase

Intriguingly, before the trading session, GBTC sent less than half of the Bitcoin it sent to Coinbase the previous day. Despite this decrease, GBTC’s total trading volume was 50% higher.

As the demand for Bitcoin continues to surge, ETFs play a crucial role in facilitating institutional and retail investors’ participation in the cryptocurrency market. The increased trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs highlights investors’ growing interest and confidence in digital assets.

Coinbase

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $51,900 and encountering a critical resistance level at $52,000. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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US Banks Rally For Updated Crypto Guidelines As Digital Asset Prices Surge

Amidst a significant surge in cryptocurrency prices, which propelled the total crypto market capitalization to a high of $1.93 trillion on Thursday, influential interest groups are urging the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to revise accounting guidance that imposes higher costs on US banks for holding digital assets on behalf of their customers.

Banking Trade Groups Urge SEC To Revise Crypto Accounting Rules

According to a Bloomberg report, a coalition of trade groups, including the Bank Policy Institute, the American Bankers Association, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, and the Financial Services Forum, sent a letter to the SEC on Wednesday outlining their desired changes. 

The existing guidance requires public companies, including banks, to treat cryptocurrencies they hold in custody as liabilities on their corporate balance sheets. Consequently, banks must allocate assets of a similar value to comply with capital requirements and protect against potential losses.

According to Bloomberg, the trade groups have requested the SEC to consider the following key changes:

  1. Exclude certain assets from being classified under the broad crypto umbrella. This includes traditional assets recorded or transferred using blockchain networks, such as tokenized deposits, as well as tokens underlying SEC-approved products like spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
  2. Grant regulated lenders an exemption from the current balance sheet requirement while maintaining the disclosure of crypto activities in financial statements.

The trade groups argued that if regulated banking organizations are unable to provide digital asset-safeguarding services at scale, it would negatively impact investors, customers, and the broader financial system. 

However, the SEC has defended its accounting guidance, citing the “unique risks” and uncertainties posed by cryptocurrencies compared to other assets held by banks. 

Limiting Custody Expansion?

The specific guidance in question, known as Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121, has faced criticism from banks since its publication in 2022. 

Lenders argue that the bulletin limits their ability to expand digital asset services for customers due to the associated high costs. Consequently, banks missed out on providing custody services for recently approved Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, with Coinbase emerging as the preferred custodian for the majority of ETF issuers.

The trade groups also highlighted additional challenges resulting from the guidance, including a “chilling effect” on plans to utilize blockchain technology for traditional assets. While the SEC described SAB 121 as non-binding staff guidance, it acknowledged that following it enhances disclosure to investors regarding firms safeguarding crypto assets for others.

As the SEC faces mounting pressure, there have been efforts by lawmakers to repeal the guidance.  A resolution was introduced in the House Financial Services Committee, spearheaded by Representatives Mike Flood and Wiley Nickel, while Senator Cynthia Lummis sponsored identical legislation in the Senate. These measures aim to remove the SEC’s authority in making rules that impact bank custody.

The outcome remains uncertain, as the legislation’s success depends on garnering sufficient support, particularly among Democrats and within the White House. 

However, the collective efforts of trade groups, lawmakers, and industry stakeholders could potentially lead to regulatory changes that alleviate the burden on banks holding digital assets, facilitating their participation in the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

Furthermore, the recent endeavors undertaken by US institutions exemplify a growing interest and eagerness to adopt and invest in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. 

This heightened institutional involvement has significantly contributed to the swift success of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which gained regulatory approval merely a month ago.

Crypto

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Price Soars, Smashing Through $45,000 On The Back Of Two Key Factors

In the past 14 days, the Bitcoin price has displayed a significant uptrend of 14.5%, signaling a resurgence in bullish sentiment. This rally comes as Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been trading for nearly a month, with the market already factoring in this development. As a result, Bitcoin is back on its natural course, gaining momentum ahead of the scheduled halving in April.

Currently, Bitcoin has not only regained its bullish momentum after a brief dip to the $38,500 level but has also surpassed the $45,300 mark. It now edges closer to its 25-month high of $49,000, with the $50,000 milestone within reach. 

Achieving this level would significantly narrow the gap between the current price and Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) of $69,000. However, what are the main catalysts behind this uptrend, and how far can the Bitcoin price climb?

Reduction Of GBTC Flows And Net Positive BTC Spot ETF Inflows

According to the latest analysis by QCP Capital, two key factors are driving Bitcoin’s upward trajectory: 

Daily outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have decreased from $500-600 million to $100-200 million. Simultaneously, total inflows across all Bitcoin ETFs are now positive. This shift in the GBTC flows, and the emergence of net positive BTC spot ETF inflows contribute to the current bullish trend, according to the crypto trading firm’s analysis

Additionally, notable price movements have been observed around “spot ETF fixings.” Between 3-4 pm EST, QCP has recorded that the Bitcoin price tends to tick higher, possibly due to the one-hour observation window used by the BlackRock ETF (IBIT) to calculate its Net Asset Value (NAV). 

Conversely, downward pressure is typically observed after 4 pm EST as GBTC employs a point fix, leading market makers to sell around and after the fix.

Strong Performance In US Equities

Despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and higher US yields driven by robust February Non-Farm Payroll data (353k actual vs. 180k expected), US equities continue outperforming. 

Companies like NVDA and META have rallied due to strong earnings and positive headlines. Underallocated investors will likely continue buying any equities dips as they chase returns. 

According to the analysis, this bullish sentiment is expected to “spill” over into BTC and Ethereum (ETH), further fueled by the upcoming BTC halving and the ETH spot ETF narratives.

Ultimately, the trading firm assesses significant interest in accumulators, which enable investors to purchase Bitcoin or ETH at a “substantial discount” to the current spot price. This strategy is believed to present an attractive opportunity for bullish investors looking to build long positions throughout the year.

Bitcoin Price Faces Strong Barriers On Its Way To $50,000

Despite the uptrend, notable resistance levels could impede further upward movement and potentially lead to a consolidation phase for Bitcoin. 

To assess the nearest-term resistances accurately, the 1-hour chart indicates potential price paths for Bitcoin in the coming days if these bearish thresholds are breached.

In the immediate time frame, the $45,500 level emerges as Bitcoin’s next resistance level. This level previously marked a correction in the Bitcoin price shortly after the introduction of ETF trading.

Bitcoin price

Subsequently, the next target would be the $46,600 level if the immediate resistance at $45,500 is surpassed. However, while these two thresholds may present challenges, no significant resistance levels are evident on Bitcoin’s hourly chart until the $48,500 level. 

This particular level represents the final hurdle for Bitcoin before reclaiming its previous high reached on January 11, immediately following the approval of ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Considering the combined factors of Grayscale’s reduced sell-off and the overall performance of the equity market, alongside renewed investor sentiment, Bitcoin could potentially surge to previous highs and even surpass them, marking new highs since the end of the crypto winter. 

The key factor to be seen is how Bitcoin’s price will respond when encountering these highlighted resistance walls and whether the buying pressure will be sufficient to propel Bitcoin back on track toward the bullish momentum observed at the beginning of 2024.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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What’s Ahead For Bitcoin? Expert Forecasts Pre-Halving Rally As Early As Next Week

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in the market, has seen its price hover between $42,000 and $43,000, halting its recovery from the dip below $38,500. 

With the upcoming halving event scheduled for April, market experts and crypto analysts such as Rekt Capital are observing historical patterns that suggest an interesting price action scenario, potentially igniting another significant price surge for Bitcoin.

Pre-Halving Rally For Bitcoin Imminent? 

Rekt Capital, known for its expertise in analyzing market trends, highlights the significance of historical patterns about previous halving events. These patterns reveal a consistent trend of substantial rallies leading up to the halving, followed by a short period of correction and consolidation before a major bull run and peak.

According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin should commence its Pre-Halving Rally as early as next week if history indicates. 

This rally, driven by investors “buying the hype” in anticipation of the halving, aims to capitalize on the price surge and realize profits by “selling the news.” Short-term traders and speculators often exploit this hype-driven rally and sell their positions.

Bitcoin

The subsequent selling pressure contributes to a phenomenon known as the pre-halving retrace. This retrace typically occurs a couple of weeks before the actual halving event. 

In previous halving cycles, the pre-halving retrace reached depths of -38% in 2016 and -20% in 2020. It is worth noting that this phase can last for several weeks, introducing uncertainty among investors regarding whether the halving will act as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin’s price.

Overall, the historical patterns observed by Rekt Capital point to the possibility of a pre-halving rally in the coming weeks, followed by a correction period known as the pre-halving retrace. 

While past performance is no guarantee of future results, these historical trends provide valuable guidance on how the price of Bitcoin may perform in the coming weeks and days before the halving.

Long-Term Holder Support And ETF Buying Pressure

Despite expected short-term gains for BTC, Crypto Con has recently drawn attention to a historical trend in the Bitcoin market. According to Crypto Con, no Bitcoin cycle has ever escaped a retest of the 150% long-term holder support line. 

According to the analyst, this line has acted as a crucial level of support during various market cycles. Even during the unprecedented black swan event and subsequent recovery in 2020, the price retested this line as support.

By analyzing this metric, Crypto Con suggests that based on historical patterns, Bitcoin’s price may need approximately $31,300 to retest the long-term holder support line. 

Bitcoin

The anticipated impact of ETF buying pressure on Bitcoin’s price is counterbalancing the argument for further corrections. Introducing ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) into the cryptocurrency market is a relatively new development. As such, the effects of ETF inflows on Bitcoin’s price remain to be seen and are a subject of ongoing observation.

While the potential retest of the long-term holder support line may create temporary price fluctuations, proponents of Bitcoin as an investment opportunity view such a scenario as a buying opportunity. 

Ultimately, Crypto Con believes that those who believe in the long-term prospects of Bitcoin may choose to take advantage of any price dips resulting from a retest of support.

Bitcoin

BTC trades at $42,800, up a slight 0.4% in the past 24 hours as of this writing. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Why Is Bitcoin Price Not Going Up Despite The ETFs? Expert Explains

In a recent analysis, Fred Krueger, the former founder and chairman of Traffic Marketplace, offered a nuanced explanation for the seemingly paradoxical situation where the Bitcoin price has fallen despite the influx of over $5 billion in new assets through Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by BlackRock and Fidelity. Since January 11, the first trading day of the ten spot ETFs, the Bitcoin price has currently plunged by 13% (over 21% at times).

Why Is Bitcoin Price Not Going Up?

Krueger’s insights, shared via X (formerly Twitter), delve into the complex dynamics of the market and its recent interactions with emerging financial instruments. Krueger’s analysis begins by highlighting a key strategy adopted by arbitrage traders in late June 2023, in anticipation of the ETF launch.

He stated, “In late June 2023, in anticipation of an ETF, arbitrageurs put on Long GBTC, short BTC Futures trades.” This maneuver, according to Krueger, initially had a negative impact on Bitcoin’s price. However, its effects were masked by the overall market rally at the time.

Crucially, this strategy began to close the discount on Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and simultaneously increased the open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). With the approval of the ETFs, these arbitrage traders shifted their strategies. Krueger explains, “Once the ETFs were approved, the arbs unwinded the trade. This time they sold GBTC for BTC, and bought Futures.”

He describes this action as market-neutral. The selling of GBTC necessitated an actual sale of Bitcoin, which balanced against the futures purchase. This dynamic led to a decrease in the open interest on CME, a trend that was observed and reported.

There Was More At Play

Krueger also sheds light on the composition of the new ETF demand, noting that “about 1.5 billion of the 5 billion in new ETF demand was in fact recycled from GBTC in tax-neutral accounts, looking for lower fees.” This recycling of funds, while significant, did not represent fresh capital entering the Bitcoin market but rather a reallocation of existing investments.

The analysis further identifies external market pressures, notably the selling of $1 billion worth of GBTC by Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), founder of FTX. Krueger comments, “This selling, and the headline selling of GBTC spoofed the market, and so people concluded the ETF was a failure.”

However, Krueger argues that this perspective overlooks the reality that the ETFs actually created net new buying pressure of over $3.5 billion. Despite the substantial buying activity spurred by the new ETFs, the broader market reaction was influenced by a combination of factors, including the FTX selling and the unwinding of arbitrage positions.

Krueger concludes his analysis by stating, “The relentless buying of the new ETFs was far bigger than anybody predicted, modulo the FTX selling and the arb unwinds.” Overall, Krueger is super bullish:

Over the next 30 to 60 days, there are 20 to 40 trading sessions. I would bet this results in between 4 and 6 Billion new USD in inflows. At a market cap of 850 Billion, it’s pretty easy to see this *could* move the market 50% or to 64K. Basically at all time high.

At press time, BTC traded at $43,054.

Bitcoin price

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Bitfinex Securities Starts Operations In El Salvador – Here Are The Details

Over the last few years, El Salvador has been making considerable efforts to become Latin America’s crypto hub. Today, two and a half years after adopting Bitcoin as a legal currency in the country, Bitfinex Securities announced the launch of Bitfinex Securities El Salvador S.A., the first platform to offer tokenized securities.

Launching The First Licensed Digital Asset Platform In El Salvador

On January 31, 2024, Bitfinex Securities officially became the first registered and licensed digital assets service provider to launch in El Salvador, and it’s now accepting customer applications. 

Last year, El Salvador approved the Digital Asset Securities Law, allowing Bitfinex Securities to apply for and receive approval for the first digital assets license under this regulatory framework.

This new law, as Juan Carlos Reyes, President of the National Commission of Digital Assets (NCDA), explained:

(…) carved out digital assets regulation from the traditional financial regulator and created the national commission of digital assets, that oversees the supervision and regulation of the ecosystem.

Additionally, the NCDA Chair recalled the positive experience with the firm and praised it for its ‘regulatory high standards’ and ‘world-class’ knowledge of compliance.

In the announcement, Bitfinex Securities highlighted the “substantial leap for financial innovation in Latin America” that the development of the tokenized securities industry in El Salvador suggests. The firm also announced it has established a pipeline of potential issuances that it expects to come to the market throughout the year.

Bitcoin ETF Approval Provides An Optimistic Outlook

“We are delighted to be able to announce the launch of Bitfinex Securities in El Salvador,” said Paolo Ardoino, Chief Technology Officer of Bitfinex Securities. He expressed his excitement to take part in the “forefront of this financial revolution,” stating:

This is not only an important market for Bitfinex given its adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender and the fostering of a Bitcoin-based economy, but it also gives El Salvador the opportunity to attract global investment flows, as issuers put out competitively priced securities offerings.

The launch of the Bitfinex Securities El Salvador platform follows the approval of the spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 10. The successful launch of Bitcoin-based ETFs in the US makes the firm expect a significant demand for exposure to other regulated digital asset services.

Jesse Knutson, Bitfinex Securities Head of Operation, highlighted in his statement the progress that El Salvador has made since 2021:

Following up on El Salvador’s groundbreaking policy work and legislative frameworks over the past two and a half years, the official launch of Bitfinex Securities El Salvador is another important step in the evolution of capital markets and an important global proof of concept.

Knutson also expressed optimism over the “recent surge of institutional investor interest in Bitcoin-focused financial products.”

Bitcoin, BTC, BTCUSDT

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Bitcoin ETFs Experience Day 12 Reversal, GBTC Selling Slows, Fidelity And Blackrock Garner $400 Million

Bitcoin has witnessed a positive turn of events as it reclaimed the $43,000 mark on Tuesday, thanks to a significant reduction in selling pressure from asset manager Grayscale. The reversal in Bitcoin ETFs during day 12 of trading has seen more inflows than outflows. Fidelity and Blackrock recorded a combined $400 million across their Bitcoin ETFs under the ticker names FBTC and IBIT, respectively. 

Bitcoin ETFs Record Third-Largest Money Day

According to market expert James Mullarney, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has experienced a noticeable reduction in selling pressure, as reflected by the slowing down of GBTC selling. 

Day 12 of trading showed a substantial inflow compared to outflow, marking the third-largest money day ever in net money flow, bringing in $256 million. 

Bitcoin ETFs

Mullarney further states that adding new Bitcoin ETFs has contributed to a net positive of $1 billion in ETFs, with an estimated 25,000 Bitcoin added to the market. The new Bitcoin ETFs now hold a total of 150,000 BTC in aggregate.

Miners Sell Most Coins Since May 2023

Despite these positive developments with Bitcoin ETFs, there is an ongoing increase in selling pressure from miners. A recent CryptoQuant report reveals that miners have sold the most coins since May 2023. 

The flow of coins from miner wallets to spot exchanges reached its highest value since May 16, 2023, with over 4,000 Bitcoin amounting to approximately $173 million in selling pressure.

Bitcoin ETFs

Although miners have increased their selling activity, CryptoQuant asserts that the market has absorbed this pressure “calmly”. It is important to note that the reserves in mining portfolios have remained at the same level since the beginning of January. 

CryptoQuant highlights that it is crucial to consider that these actions do not necessarily indicate a “dump” by miners. The firm concluded:

It is true that there were several interactions with exchanges during this period, some quite significant, but this does not correspond to a “dump” on the part of these entities. Furthermore, it is necessary to be careful when reading messages like “miners are dumping coins”, this analyzes may not take into account the return of these coins to miners’ wallets. 

New All-Time High For Bitcoin After November?

Renowned crypto analyst, CryptoCon, cautions against the belief that “this time is different” for Bitcoin, highlighting the recurring nature of its market cycles. With three completed cycles and a fourth underway, CryptoCon emphasizes that historical patterns, including the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, have consistently influenced Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

CryptoCon emphasizes that Bitcoin’s price movements have followed distinct cycles, and he warns against the notion that each cycle will deviate significantly from the preceding ones. 

Despite the anticipation surrounding the launch of ETFs, historical evidence suggests that they have coincided with local price highs rather than instant new all-time highs. 

CryptoCon argues that the repeated occurrence of such patterns should serve as a reminder that “this time is different” often proves to be an illusory belief.

According to CryptoCon’s analysis, a period of sideways movement is expected to commence soon after the completion of the ongoing correction, which saw BTC retrace to the $38,500 level on Tuesday, January 23. 

This phase is predicted to last approximately four months, culminating in a second early price peak in June 2024, according to Crypto Con. 

Following this, the analyst foresees the possibility of new all-time highs occurring after November 28th, 2024. However, it is crucial to note that the cycle’s peak will occur within approximately 21 days from this date, around November 28th, 2025.

Bitcoin ETFs

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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$130M Silk Road Bitcoin Stash To Be Sold By US Government

Since mid-January Bitcoin (BTC) has been facing mounting selling pressure from various market players. This includes asset manager Grayscale, bankrupt crypto exchange FTX, and now, the US government, which is set to auction off a substantial amount of Bitcoin seized from the infamous dark web marketplace Silk Road.

Sale Of Confiscated Silk Road Bitcoin

The US government has filed a notice to sell approximately $130 million worth of Bitcoin confiscated from Silk Road. The filing states that the United States intends to dispose of the forfeited property as directed by the United States Attorney General.

Individuals or entities, except for the defendants in the case, claiming an interest in the forfeited property must file an ancillary petition within 60 days of the initial publication of the notice. 

Once all ancillary petitions have been addressed or the filing period has expired, the United States will obtain clear title to the property, enabling them to warrant good title to subsequent purchasers or transferees.

The ongoing selling pressure on BTC has resulted in a sharp 20% correction over the past 10 days. This trend is expected to continue and further amplify the selling pressure. Adding to the situation, asset manager Grayscale, while slowing down its selling activities, continues to transfer a significant amount of Bitcoin to Coinbase. 

Bitcoin

According to data from Arkham Intelligence, Grayscale recently sent an additional 10,000 BTC worth $400 million to Coinbase. 

Since the approval of the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), Grayscale has deposited a total of 103,134 BTC ($4.23 billion) to Coinbase Prime. Currently, Grayscale holds 510,682 BTC ($20.43 billion).

Ideal Buying Opportunities? 

Adam Cochran, a prominent market expert, has provided insights into the recent price action and the expectations of Bitcoin buyers. Cochran highlights that aggregate open interest (OI) for BTC has decreased by 17% from recent highs but remains around 20% higher than the averages observed during more stable market ranges. 

Cochran notes that the market has seen attempts to catch falling prices, suggesting a mix of “sophisticated” and leveraged buyers.

Cochran further observes that retail investors are driven by narratives surrounding the ETF and halving events, leading them to buy dips on leverage. However, many investors remain unconvinced about the market’s direction and are waiting for a clear entry point, according to Cochran’s analysis. 

Notably, Cochran highlights that the current funding rates do not indicate a bearish sentiment, even in options trading, suggesting an expectation of a bottom formation shortly.

The market’s dynamics are influenced by emotions and probabilities, and Cochran believes that too many participants are overexposing themselves emotionally by trying to catch the bottom of the market on each dip. 

This behavior has increased the likelihood that the recent price action may not mark the bottom yet. Cochran suggests that a sentiment reset, a decline in the 3-month annualized basis by around 25%, and a further decrease in open interest would provide a healthier environment for major plays in the market.

Ultimately, Cochran emphasizes the need for a reset in expectations, highlighting that a period of doom and despair is necessary for market participants to reassess their positions. 

Cochran points out that a range between $35,000 and $37,000 BTC could be a suitable level for larger spot buys in the longer term. However, Cochran also notes that a potential drop to the $28,000 to $32,000 range could provide ideal conditions for confident, leveraged deployment.

Bitcoin

Currently, BTC is trading at $39,800, up a slight 0.6% in the past 24 hours, but down over 14% in the past fourteen days.

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Bitcoin ETF Day 8 Update: Market Rebound Signals Bottom As Grayscale Selling Slows Down

Since the approval of Bitcoin ETF applications by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 11, followed by the commencement of trading a day later, the ETF race has witnessed impressive trading volumes on each trading day.

As the market recovers from a sharp correction, recent developments indicate a notable slowdown in Grayscale selling, which could potentially signal a rebound for the Bitcoin price following the recent 20% drop.

Market expert James Mullarney and Bloomberg ETF expert Erich Balchunas provide key insights into Bitcoin ETF fund flows after 8 days, shedding light on the evolving dynamics and investor sentiments surrounding this development.

Hope For Bitcoin Bulls 

One of the key observations made by James Mullarney is the deceleration in Grayscale’s selling activities. While Grayscale continues to sell, the pace of their selling has significantly reduced, indicating a potential shift in their strategy. 

This is seen as a positive sign for the market, as a slowdown in Grayscale selling could contribute to stabilizing Bitcoin prices and restoring investor confidence.

Bitcoin ETF

Amidst this backdrop, major players in the asset management industry, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, have showcased their resilience and commitment to Bitcoin. 

BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset managers, currently holds 44,000 BTC in assets under management (AUM), indicating their growing exposure to the cryptocurrency. 

Similarly, Bitcoin ETF issuer Fidelity, renowned for its digital asset services, stands strong with 40,000 BTC AUM, demonstrating their continued confidence in Bitcoin and its long-term potential.

Moreover, the dynamics of the recent sell-off are noteworthy. The majority of the selling pressure observed in the market involved FTX, which completed day 8 of trading. 

However, as the market enters day 9, the expectation is for a significant reduction in selling pressure from FTX and Grayscale, potentially contributing to a more stable market environment, according to Mullarney. 

The emergence of Bitcoin ETFs as significant holders of the cryptocurrency is another positive aspect to consider. ETFs have not only absorbed the 101,600 BTC sold by Grayscale but have also increased their holdings by an additional 21,100 BTC in just 8 days. 

According to  Mullarney, this indicates growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, as ETFs continue to accumulate significant amounts of the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin ETF Issuers Counter Grayscale Selling

Despite Grasycale’s selling spree, Mullarney highlights that the Bitcoin ETF managers alone are acquiring 15 times the daily Bitcoin supply, surpassing 13,444 BTC against the 900 BTC daily creation rate. 

This notable inflow of BTC demonstrates the strong demand from institutional investors and highlights the potential impact of ETFs on the overall Bitcoin market. 

Interestingly, the new ETFs have absorbed a net total of 122,000 BTC in just 8 days, overcoming the impact of Grayscale’s release and contributing to a positive net inflow.

Bloomberg ETF expert Erich Balchunas adds further insights to the analysis. Balchunas notes that the volume of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has decreased, which could be a sign of exhaustion in selling. 

However, $515 million was withdrawn from GBTC yesterday, resulting in a total outflow of $3.96 billion since its conversion to an ETF. On a more positive note, there was a net inflow of $409 million on the ninth day, indicating renewed investor interest.

Bitcoin ETF

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Post-ETF Pain: Bitcoin Plunges 20% – And Drowns The Crypto Market In A Sea Of Red

Bitcoin has dropped over 20% from its three-year high reached shortly after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January. Analysts cite a combination of profit-taking after the long-awaited event and broader market uncertainty as reasons for the correction.

Bitcoin Retreats Post-ETF Approval Surge

The price surge in anticipation of the ETF approval saw Bitcoin reach nearly $49,000 on January 11th. However, since the green light for the ETFs, the cryptocurrency has retreated steadily, trading at around $39,500 at the time of writing.

According to some analysts, they have seen a classic “sell the news” scenario unfold. Investors had largely priced in the ETF approval for months, and once it actually happened, some took the opportunity to lock in profits, they added.

While nearly $4 billion has flowed into the new spot ETFs, a significant portion, analysts note, came from existing funds like Grayscale which transitioned into an ETF, suggesting less net new investment than what the headline numbers might imply. Additionally, the ongoing liquidation of assets from bankrupt crypto exchange FTX has added downward pressure on prices.

Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Japanese bitcoin exchange Bitbank, said:

“It seems that the seemingly large amount of daily outflows from GBTC is affecting the market in a psychological way.”

The downturn extends beyond Bitcoin, with other major cryptocurrencies also experiencing losses. Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, is down nearly 4%, while Solana and other altcoins have seen similar declines. The price dips have also impacted crypto-related stocks, with Coinbase shares falling around 4% in pre-market trading.

Despite the recent price correction, analysts remain divided on the near-term outlook for Bitcoin. Some believe the pullback may be nearing its end, with support levels around $36,000 likely to hold. Others believe further downside is possible before a sustained rebound.

Bitcoin: Volatility Persists, Long-Term Outlook Strong

Bitcoin has experienced significant corrections after major news events in the past. However, the long-term fundamentals remain strong, and many believe Bitcoin is still on track for a new all-time high in 2024.

The recent market volatility highlights the risks involved in investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. While the potential for high returns exists, investors should be aware of the significant price swings and uncertain regulatory landscape before entering the market.

As the post-ETF aftermath unfolds, the cryptocurrency market finds itself submerged in a sea of red. The volatility underscores the sensitivity of digital assets to market sentiment and regulatory developments.

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Bitcoin Price At Risk? Grayscale’s $335M Coinbase Transfer Stirs $30,000 Plunge Potential

The Bitcoin price has experienced a notable shift as selling pressure mounts, with BTC bears gaining the upper hand. Asset manager Grayscale, the owner and manager of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), is a significant contributor to this trend. 

Since the trading of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) began on January 12, Grayscale has been on a selling spree, as evidenced by substantial transfers of BTC to the United States-based crypto exchange Coinbase.

Bitcoin Price Under Pressure As Grayscale Selling Spree Continues

According to Akrham Intelligence data, in addition to the previously reported 69,994 BTC ($2.9 billion) transfers, Grayscale sent an additional 8,593,075 BTC (approximately $335.19 million) to the exchange on Tuesday, suggesting the possibility of further selling activities.

Bitcoin price

These developments have affected the Bitcoin price, which has experienced a significant downtrend, declining by 20% over the past week and a half. 

On Tuesday, the largest cryptocurrency dropped as low as $38,500, placing considerable pressure on a crucial support level. Despite the bearish pressure, the $38,500 support level has demonstrated resilience so far, with the cryptocurrency rebounding to $39,300 at the time of writing. 

Nevertheless, the duration of Grayscale’s selling spree remains uncertain, and if market sentiment continues to turn negative, Bitcoin could potentially revisit the $30,000 mark. This figure is just above the key $29,000 level that marked the beginning of the bull run that took Bitcoin to its 22-month high of $49,000 on January 11th.

Bears On The Rise

If the $38,500 threshold succumbs to Grayscale’s selling pressure and profit-taking, market observers should closely monitor the $37,750 level as the next resistance. 

Failure to hold above this level would open the door to a potential decline toward the major resistance at $35,600, which could further prevent a dip to the next support level at $33,000.

However, if these support levels are breached and the Bitcoin price continues its downtrend, the next significant key levels to watch for bullish momentum would be $29,000 to $30,000. A breakdown below these levels could signal an end to the current bull market structure and grant the bears the upper hand in the mid-term, at least until the anticipated halving event in April. 

Historically, halving events have acted as major catalysts for the Bitcoin price, and their influence has been demonstrated.

As the Bitcoin market faces intensified selling pressure and Grayscale’s ongoing selling spree, market participants remain cautious about the potential for a significant price plunge. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can regain its bullish momentum or if it will succumb to further downward pressure.

Bitcoin price

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Bitcoin Expected To Mirror Historical Trends: Glassnode Sets $120K Price Prediction For 2024

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in the market, has encountered a significant downturn following the waning hype around exchange-traded funds (ETFs), resulting in a 9% decline over the past fourteen days. 

However, Glassnode co-founders remain optimistic, asserting that the recent price corrections align with historical patterns and could propel Bitcoin to new heights, nearly doubling its current all-time high (ATH) of $69,000.

Healthy Market Correction?

In their latest analysis, the co-founders of the blockchain analytics firm posted on X (formerly Twitter), highlighting Bitcoin’s movement to the 6.618 Fibonacci Extension after a Bull Flag Correction. 

They draw parallels between the current correction and similar market conditions observed in late 2017 and 2020. The question arises: Will history repeat itself in 2024, and will Bitcoin reach its 6.618 Fibonacci Extension during this bullish market, setting a target of approximately $120K?

Bitcoin

Examining the chart above, the analysis by the Glassnode co-founders reveals a comparable price correction following Bitcoin’s breakout above the $10,000 price level, which initiated the bull trend that propelled the cryptocurrency to a $15,000 increase before reaching its current ATH of $69,000.

Likewise, Bitcoin exhibited a similar bull flag pattern after surpassing the $29,000 price level, leading to a 22-month high of $48,900 on January 11. Notably, this surge occurred shortly after the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Considering these developments, the key to Bitcoin’s future trajectory lies in maintaining support around the $40,000 level and further consolidation above it. If these conditions are met in the coming months, Bitcoin has the potential to reach the 6.618 Fibonacci extension, pushing its price as high as $120,000.

New All-Time Highs Expected For Bitcoin

Like Glassnode co-founder’s recent price analysis, crypto analyst Crypto Con also relies on historical patterns to gauge the future price action of BTC. According to Crypto Con, the mid-top of this Bitcoin price cycle occurred slightly faster than previous cycles but slower than the third cycle. 

Notably, this mid-top represents the only instance where it occurred outside of an early top, as indicated by the purple and yellow dots on the chart provided by the analyst.

Bitcoin

Despite the 2019 mid-top occurring a year earlier than expected, the cycle top still manifested within the usual timeframe, plus or minus 21 days from November 28th, 2021. 

Crypto Con stresses that there is currently no evidence apart from complex theories to support the notion of an accelerated cycle. The analyst cautions against assuming that ETFs prevent potential Bitcoin price corrections. 

After November 28th, 2024, Crypto Con predicts the emergence of new all-time highs for the Bitcoin price of $90,000 or $130,000 and significant growth for the cryptocurrency market. 

Bitcoin

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $40,590, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours. If this level is breached, Bitcoin could drop towards the $37,650 level as it is the next major support for the cryptocurrency.

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QCP Capital Forecasts ETH’s Dominance Over Bitcoin To Persist, Ethereum ETFs In Focus

Over the past 30 days, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, has experienced a notable surge of 17%, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC), which has recorded a surge of 2.5% over the same period. 

This comes as the initial excitement surrounding the approval of the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears to have waned, with BTC witnessing a 5% drop in the past seven days. 

Interestingly, according to crypto trading firm QCP Capital, following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the focus has shifted to the potential launch of an ETH spot ETF, which could be one of the factors for Ethereum outperforming BTC.  

Ethereum Gains Ground Against BTC 

According to QCP Capital, the total volumes transacted across all 11 ETFs in the past week have reached $9.8 billion. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) alone accounted for $4.6 billion. 

Since converting from a Trust to an ETF, GBTC has experienced outflows of $1.17 billion. This is “unsurprising” for the firm, considering GBTC had been trading at a discount since 2020, offering investors an opportunity to exit at par value. 

BTC initially surged to a high of $49,100 upon ETF approval but has since seen a decline, consolidating above the $40,000 support level. Volumes have slowed since the initial launch, and market attention is focused on GBTC outflows. 

Meanwhile, ETHBTC, which traded below 0.05, has seen an upward trend to 0.06. According to QCP Capital, Ethereum is anticipated to continue to outperform Bitcoin in the medium term as the narrative shifts towards potential ETH Spot ETF approvals.

Bitcoin Forward Contract Yields Decrease

Following the launch of the BTC spot ETF, BTC forward contracts have experienced a greater decline compared to ETH forward contracts. BTC 1-month forward fell from 32% annualized to 9% (-23%), while ETH 1-month forward decreased from 28% to 12% (-16%). 

According to QCP Capital, despite declining yields, ETH forwards still appear attractive, offering 11-13% annualized returns. Additionally, selling ETH 1-month 2200 Puts presents a viable option with yields above 21% annually, and it could be a suitable level to buy in the event of a dip upon potential ETH spot ETF approvals.

Ultimately, the crypto firm suggests that the forthcoming BTC halving in mid-April and the potential approval of ETH Spot ETFs from May are anticipated to be significant events for the crypto market. 

In the interim, market movements may also be influenced by macroeconomic events. The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, as well as the February Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports, are being closely monitored for insights. 

The pace of the balance sheet runoff, discussed briefly in December 2023, is expected to provide further clarity during the January FOMC meeting. The market consensus suggests a slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT), but the timing and extent of these changes remain uncertain.

Overall, the potential launch of an Ethereum spot ETF has sparked speculation and could have a transformative impact on the Ethereum ecosystem. As the market grapples with changing dynamics, attention remains on key events, such as the BTC halving and potential ETH Spot ETF approvals.

Ethereum

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Grayscale Transfers Almost 12,000 BTC To Coinbase, Bitcoin Price Reacts

In a significant development that could potentially impact the Bitcoin price, Arkham Intelligence data reveals that Grayscale, the manager and owner of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), has been sending a significant amount of Bitcoin to Coinbase since the launch of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on January 12.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Initiates Substantial BTC Outflow

According to the data, four days ago, Grayscale initiated the first batch of BTC outflows from their holdings to the US-based exchange in four separate batches, totaling 4,000 BTC, which amounted to approximately $183 million. However, the asset manager resumed outflows from the Trust to the exchange on Tuesday.

Bitcoin price

In a recent update, approximately three hours ago, the asset manager sent an additional 11,700 BTC to Coinbase, amounting to $491.4 million. This additional selling pressure could push the Bitcoin price to test lower support levels.

Furthermore, Bloomberg reports that investors have withdrawn over half a billion dollars from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust during the initial days of trading as an ETF. 

According to Bloomberg’s data, outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust reached approximately $579 million, while the other nine spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed inflows totaling nearly $819 million.

Investors Shift Capital To ‘Lower-Cost’ Spot Bitcoin ETFs

James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, noted that investors may be profit-taking following the ETF conversion. The flow data provides valuable insights into the ETF’s performance following SEC approval. 

Although over $2.3 billion of GBTC shares were traded on its first day, the outflows indicate that a portion of that volume was due to selling. Seyffart anticipates that a significant amount of capital will enter other Bitcoin exposures.

The outflows from Grayscale’s ETF were somewhat expected. Bloomberg Intelligence had previously projected that the fund would experience outflows of over $1 billion in the coming weeks. 

Some of this outflow can be attributed to investors shifting towards more cost-effective spot Bitcoin ETFs. With an expense ratio of 1.5%, GBTC is the most expensive US ETF directly investing in Bitcoin. In contrast, the VanEck Bitcoin Trust, the second-most expensive fund, charges 0.25%.

On the other hand, other spot Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT attracted nearly $500 million in the first two days of trading, while Fidelity’s FBTC received approximately $421 million. 

According to Bloomberg, these inflows suggest strong demand for Bitcoin exposure in physically backed ETFs, even beyond potential seed funding from the fund issuers.

Bitcoin Price Finds Support At $42,000

Currently, the Bitcoin price remains unaffected by the news of Grayscale’s transfers to Coinbase. The leading cryptocurrency is trading at $43,100, showing a slight increase of 0.8% over the past 24 hours.

However, since the commencement of ETF trading, it is important to note that the Bitcoin price has experienced a significant retracement, declining by 8%. This decline can be attributed to profit-taking and selling pressure, with Grayscale’s involvement being noteworthy.

In the event of a further drop in the Bitcoin price, a significant support level has been established at $42,000. If this level is breached, the next key level for Bitcoin bulls to watch is $41,350, followed by a potential dip below $40,000.

The market is eagerly observing whether Grayscale and its BTC selloff will continue and how this will impact the Bitcoin price leading up to the scheduled halving event in April, which many consider to be the main catalyst for the year.

Bitcoin price

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Cantor CEO Makes Gold And Bitcoin ETFs Comparison, Foresees True Rally With Halving

In a highly anticipated development, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granted regulatory approval for 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, sparking excitement within the crypto community. 

However, despite initial expectations of a significant price surge, the Bitcoin market has experienced an 8% price drop since the ETFs began trading.

Bitcoin ETFs To Unfold Impact Over Time? 

Drawing a comparison with the launch of the first Gold ETF, Cantor Fitzgerald Asset Management CEO, Howard Lutnick, noted that the immediate rush to buy the asset did not materialize.

Lutnick remarks that historical data from the launch of the Gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), reveals that substantial price appreciation took place over several years. 

When GLD was introduced in November 2004, the price of gold stood at around $700. By December 2023, it had surged to an all-time high of $2,145. The gold market capitalization, estimated at $1 trillion to $2 trillion pre-ETF approval, ballooned to $16 trillion within a few years.

Likewise, despite the initial hype surrounding the spot Bitcoin ETFs, experts suggest that the true impact of these ETFs will unfold over an extended period. 

As reported by NewsBTC, market analysts at CoinShares estimate that the United States possesses around $14.4 trillion in addressable assets. 

Assuming a conservative scenario where 10% of these assets invest in a spot Bitcoin ETF with an average allocation of 1%, it could potentially result in approximately $14.4 billion inflows within the first year.

These significant inflows have the potential to propel the Bitcoin price to new highs and initiate a notable price uptrend. However, as Cantor CEO Howard Lutnick predicted, the halving event, expected to occur in April, remains the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s growth.

Dual Catalysts For Crypto Market Enthusiasm

As the Bitcoin halving event approaches, analysis of past halvings reveals a pattern of substantial rallies leading up to the event, followed by a brief correction and consolidation period before a major bull run and peak. The peak typically occurs approximately 18 months after each halving, showcasing a consistent trend.

The first halving occurred on November 28, 2012, reducing the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. At the time of the halving, the Bitcoin price was around $13. 

However, within a year, it reached a peak of $1,152. Despite a subsequent fall in price to nearly $200 in 2015, critics declared the bursting of a bubble and the demise of Bitcoin. Yet, this trend would repeat in subsequent halving cycles.

The second halving occurred on July 16, 2016, reducing the block reward to 12.5 BTC. At the time, Bitcoin was valued at $664. 

The following year saw a peak of $17,760. Similarly, the third halving occurred on May 11, 2020, lowering the block reward to 6.25 BTC. Bitcoin was priced at $9,734 during the halving and peaked at $69,000 the following year.

Based on the historical cycles, it is evident that the upcoming halving scheduled for April 2024 will be a significant catalyst for Bitcoin. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin ETFs will also play a crucial role. 

These ETFs are expected to positively impact the cryptocurrency’s price and bring new inflows and interest to the crypto market.

Bitcoin ETFs

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Crypto Community Raises Alarm Over Coinbase’s Dominance Of Bitcoin Held In Spot ETFs

Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, is presently serving as the custodian of the majority of the Spot Bitcoin ETFs managed by various asset management companies in the industry. This notable concentration is raising worries in the crypto community about significant centralization and potential risks associated with the custodianship. 

Coinbase Dominate ETFs As Major Custodian

Coinbase’s significant role in the advancement of Spot Bitcoin ETFs has become a target of scrutiny in the crypto community. The American crypto exchange is currently the custodian of 9 out of 11 Spot Bitcoin ETF companies, including BlackRock, Grayscale, Ark/21 Shares, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Invesco/Galaxy, Valkyrie, GlobalX, and Franklin Templeton. 

Notably, only Fidelity and VanEck have opted for alternative custodianship approaches. Fidelity is employing a self-custody program for its Spot Bitcoin ETF, while VanEck has selected Gemini, a crypto exchange, as the custodian for its Spot BTC ETF. 

The prominent role of Coinbase as the major custodian for Spot BTC ETFs has raised serious questions and concerns in the crypto community. Specifically, Gabor Gurbacs, Director of Digital Assets Strategy at VanEck, has deemed Coinbase’s concentrated level of custodianship to be a “double-edged sword.” 

Gurbacs stated that Coinbase would bear substantial responsibility as the primary custodian for Spot Bitcoin ETFs and would reap significant benefits from it. However, he also hinted at potential counterparty risks associated with concentrating assets within a single entity. 

Similarly, a crypto analyst on X (formerly Twitter) highlighted the potential for increased scrutiny from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding Coinbase, given its prominent position in the Spot Bitcoin ETF market. The crypto exchange is presently in a legal battle with the SEC, and many crypto enthusiasts believe that Coinbase’s regulatory challenges may pose a threat to the success of Spot BTC ETFs. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

Coinbase CFO Bullish On Bitcoin ETFs

The Chief Financial Officer of Coinbase, Alesia Haas appeared recently in an interview on Bloomberg TV, discussing the effects of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the crypto market. 

When asked if the momentum of Spot Bitcoin ETFs would become a “game-changer” in the future, Haas responded confidently with a resounding “absolutely.”

The Coinbase CFO declared that the SEC’s approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs was an important day for crypto, as it positions Bitcoin into a much broader investable asset class. She also revealed that the deployment of Spot Bitcoin ETFs would allow investors to have greater access to BTC products, extending its reach to billions of people around the globe and increasing the amount of inflows into ETFs. 

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Bitcoin Price Suffers Post-Spot ETF Blues, Drops 7% To $43,200

The introduction of Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has triggered a significant sell-off, leading to a sharp decline in the Bitcoin price.

After gaining approval and commencing trading on Thursday, the ETFs have prompted a “sell the news” event, causing Bitcoin’s value to plummet from its initial trading price of $46,500 at the time of approval to a low of $43,200 within a matter of hours on Friday.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has experienced a 7% drop. Its gains over the past 30 days have been limited to a mere 4%, erasing much of the progress made during that period. 

Additionally, as selling pressure continues to mount following the approval, there are indications that the Bitcoin price may face further downward pressure.

Bitcoin Price Under Pressure

CryptoQuant analyst J.A. Maartunn observed significant sell orders in Bitcoin’s two-week chart on Wednesday. Notably, three clusters of sell orders were positioned between $46,100 and $48,000, comprising stacks of 755, 1,031, and 794 BTC, respectively.

According to the CryptoQuant analyst, such patterns are typically associated with market tops, unless these orders are later withdrawn or executed.

This influx of sell orders may help explain the lackluster response to the ETF approvals until now, as it appears that selling pressure has been building up. However, the situation has intensified even further. 

According to Maartunn, additional sell orders were detected on Friday, indicating that the seller is not yet finished. Two substantial sell orders have been placed just above the current Bitcoin price: one for 894 BTC at $44,000 and another for 1,071 BTC at $45,100.

Bitcoin price

These developments suggest that market participants are taking advantage of the ETF news to offload their Bitcoin holdings, leading to increased selling pressure and a subsequent price decline. 

The market’s stabilization following this period of heightened selling pressure remains uncertain. The introduction of ETFs was believed to bring about heightened institutional interest and potentially drive up the Bitcoin price. 

However, it is important to note that the impact of these ETFs is expected to unfold over the long term, rather than being evident within days, weeks, or even months. It will likely take years to fully gauge the effects and consequences of ETF integration on the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin’s Bullish Structure Remains Intact

Amidst the ongoing selling pressure, several support lines may potentially halt the downtrend and bring positive news for the Bitcoin price and BTC bulls.

Although Bitcoin has already lost its $44,000 support level, there is another crucial threshold at $42,700 that could prevent further decline. If this level holds, there is a chance for Bitcoin to regain the $43,000 mark and reverse the downward momentum.

Bitcoin price

If the $42,700 support is breached, additional support lines come into play. These include $42,300, $41,700, and $41,200, which act as the last barriers before a potential test of the $40,000 support level. The $40,000 mark holds significance as it represents the final support before a potential dip towards $38,000.

However, there is a positive aspect for Bitcoin bulls to consider. The current bullish structure of the cryptocurrency remains intact as long as the dip does not breach the $29,900 mark.

This level marked the beginning of the current bullish uptrend, and its preservation would ensure the maintenance of the overall positive market structure.

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