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Pantera Capital Predicts Bitcoin Price Surge To $117,000: Insight Into The Timing And Factors

The Bitcoin price has experienced heightened volatility over the past week. After recovering from a low of $56,500, the largest cryptocurrency in the market surged to $65,500 within four days. However, it has since retraced some of its gains and is currently testing the $61,000 support level. 

Despite this volatility and the absence of strong bullish momentum, venture capital firm Pantera Capital remains optimistic about the future of BTC’s price, citing the recent Halving event as a significant factor.

Pantera Capital Projects $117,000 Price Target By 2025

In a recent investor letter, Pantera Capital revealed its Bitcoin Halving rallies model, which predicts a bottoming out of the BTC price followed by a rise through the Halving rally. 

Based on the average duration of previous rallies, the firm forecasts that BTC’s price will peak at $117,000 in August 2025. The average total duration of this cycle, encompassing pre- and post-Halving rallies, has historically been around 2.6 years, with symmetry observed across cycles.

Pantera Capital highlights the relationship between Halving events and BTC’s price. The firm asserts that if the demand for new Bitcoin remains constant while the supply of new Bitcoin is reduced by half, it will create upward pressure on the price. 

The anticipation of a price increase has also historically driven increased demand for Bitcoin leading up to Halving events. However, Pantera Capital acknowledges that the impact of each subsequent Halving on price may diminish as the reduction in the supply of new Bitcoin from previous Halvings becomes less significant.

Moreover, the firm notes that, on average, the Pantera Bitcoin Fund has nearly doubled in value for eleven years. Based on this historical performance, Pantera Capital envisions a scenario in which the price of Bitcoin reaches $117,000 by 2025.

Bullish Bitcoin Price Predictions

Renowned crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has recently taken to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to share bullish predictions for the Bitcoin price. With forecasts ranging from $75,000 to $110,000, Titan of Crypto highlights various factors and patterns that could potentially drive BTC’s growth.

According to Titan of Crypto, a price rise to $110,000 for Bitcoin is “programmed.” While the analyst did not elaborate on the specifics of this programming, it suggests a strong conviction in BTC’s potential to reach that level.

Titan of Crypto also identifies a current head-and-shoulders pattern in the Bitcoin price chart. If this pattern holds, the analyst suggests that BTC could rise to the $75,000 mark. If confirmed, this pattern could signify a bullish trend reversal and further support the projection of Bitcoin reaching higher price levels.

The analyst also highlighted $61,500 as a critical point to monitor due to the possibility of “panic selling.” The analyst suggests many market participants might react to this level, potentially increasing selling pressure. 

Lastly, based on his analysis, the analyst suggests a conservative price prediction of $108,000. However, Titan of Crypto believes that BTC’s price may exceed this projection, indicating a more optimistic outlook.

Bitcoin price

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Timing The Breakout: When Will Bitcoin Escape The Post-Halving Consolidation?

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in the market, has been trading within a re-accumulation range between the $59,000 and $70,000 price levels for the past month and a half. 

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently shared its perspective on this phase and its potential duration, drawing from historical patterns and data in a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter).

Breakout Timing And Historical Patterns

According to Rekt’s analysis, Bitcoin tends to experience a re-accumulation range following the Halving event, which occurs every four years to counteract any inflationary effect on Bitcoin by lowering the reward amount for miners and maintaining scarcity. 

Historically, This consolidation phase lasts up to 150 days before Bitcoin breaks into a parabolic uptrend. Based on this pattern, if Bitcoin continues to consolidate for the next 150 days, Rekt suggests a breakout would be expected in September 2024.

The ideal duration of a re-accumulation range is crucial in determining Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Rekt Capital noted that when Bitcoin reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 in mid-March, it accelerated its cycle by 260 days. However, with over 49 days of consolidation, the acceleration has reduced to approximately 210 days.

Resetting The Bitcoin Halving Cycle

Repeating historical trends, where Bitcoin consolidates for 150 days after the Halving, would still indicate an acceleration in the current cycle, albeit by a lesser extent of 60 days. 

Nevertheless, Rekt contends that Bitcoin would ideally need to consolidate for at least 210 days to fully resynchronize with its historical Halving cycles and reset the current acceleration in this cycle to 0. This would bring the rate of acceleration to 0 days and potentially lead to a breakout around November 2024.

The analyst further suggested that to achieve a 200+ day post-Halving consolidation and fully resynchronize with historical Halving cycles, Bitcoin would need to replicate its mid-2023 re-accumulation range, which lasted 224 days before a new uptrend emerged. Rekt concluded:

Overall, how long this current Re-Accumulation Range will last will dictate the remaining acceleration in this cycle and ultimately influence where Bitcoin will finally peak in its Bull Market. 

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization of $1.2 billion, is currently trading at $64,400, showing minimal fluctuations compared to Thursday’s price movements. 

Recently, Bitcoin has encountered resistance at the $66,000 level, hindering its ability to consolidate above this threshold. Conversely, the $63,400 level may serve as a support base for the cryptocurrency in the event of heightened downward volatility over the weekend.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitwise CIO Unveils 5 Major Forecasts For Bitcoin 2028 Halving, Anticipates A 280% Price Surge

Bitwise Chief Information Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan recently shared five interesting predictions for the next Halving of the Bitcoin (BTC) network, scheduled for 2028. In a comprehensive report, Hougan sheds light on the potential transformations for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

New Investors And ETFs As Catalysts

One of Hougan’s key predictions is that Bitcoin’s volatility will significantly decline by 50%. He argues that the entry of new investors through the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market will drive this decline. 

Hougan said that as financial advisors, family offices, and institutions enter the Bitcoin market, their different investment behaviors – such as portfolio rebalancing and steady drip investments – could introduce counter-cyclical flows, ultimately dampening Bitcoin’s volatility.

Hougan’s second prediction revolves around the allocation of Bitcoin in portfolios. He believes that 5% allocations to Bitcoin will become commonplace in target-date portfolios. As BTC’s volatility decreases and becomes more attractive to institutional investors, Hougan expects a rise in typical portfolio allocations. 

The Bitwise CIO predicts that Bitcoin ETFs will attract over $200 billion in inflows. He highlights their impressive growth and cites their status as the fastest-growing new ETF category of all time. 

Hougan suggests that the ETF market is still in its early stages, with national wirehouses and institutions just beginning their due diligence. Drawing parallels with the rise of gold ETFs, which experienced year-after-year growth in net flows, he anticipates a similar trend for Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin Price Path Toward $250,000

In an intriguing projection, Hougan suggests that central banks will allocate funds to Bitcoin before the next Halving event. He notes that central banks have historically been significant investors in gold, accumulating substantial amounts of the metal. 

However, with Bitcoin’s characteristics as non-debt money and its functional advantages over gold regarding payments and settlement, Hougan believes central banks will be increasingly drawn to Bitcoin. Hougan further noted on this matter:

There is also an element of game theory here. A major central bank adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset would be a game-changer for Bitcoin and, I believe, would contribute to a dramatic increase in prices. Will one central bank try to front-run the others? 

Hougan’s final prediction revolves around Bitcoin’s price. He forecasts that Bitcoin will trade above $250,000 by 2028, an increase of nearly 280% from current levels. 

The Bitwise CIO attributes Bitcoin’s previous exponential growth to its transition from a speculative asset to one with real-world utility. 

Factors such as declining volatility, improved custody options, low correlations to traditional stocks, enhanced accessibility through ETFs, and growing institutional adoption all contribute to Hougan’s optimism regarding Bitcoin’s future progress. Hougan concluded by stating:

With the ETFs launched and gathering assets—and major Wall Street firms lining up behind bitcoin—I suspect the asset will continue to move further into the mainstream. At $250,000, bitcoin would be a $5 trillion asset. Could it go higher? Of course. But $250,000 would represent solid progress between halvings, and I think we’ll see at least that.

Bitcoin

Currently trading at $64,500, BTC is down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours after retesting the $67,000 mark on Tuesday and failing to consolidate above that level.  

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Market Expert Predicts New Paradigm For Bitcoin: ‘Days Under $100,000 Numbered’

As the Bitcoin (BTC) Halving event concluded for the fourth time, the cryptocurrency market witnessed notable changes in key metrics. 

These developments have led Charles Edwards, a market expert and founder of Capriole Invest, to issue bold predictions that hint at a paradigm shift in the BTC market. 

Bitcoin Trading At ‘Deep Discount’

One of the key metrics highlighted by Edwards is the staggering electrical cost associated with mining a single Bitcoin. Edwards reveals that this cost has now reached an astonishing $77,4000. This figure represents the raw electricity expenses required to power the Bitcoin network for every newly mined BTC.

Another significant metric that Edwards draws attention to is the Bitcoin Miner Price, which soared to $244,000 on Saturday. This metric encompasses the block reward and fees miners receive for every Bitcoin they successfully mine. 

Notably, this surge in miner price coincided with transaction fees skyrocketing to $230, marking a four-fold increase compared to the previous all-time high of $68 set in 2021.

Bitcoin

Considering the metrics above, Edwards suggests that BTC currently trades at a “deep discount.”  This is because BTC’s price is lower than the electrical costs of mining it.

Typically, this situation only lasts for a few days every four years, suggesting that the price will only take a short time to catch up and surpass this price level, which is slightly below BTC’s all-time high (ATH) of $73,7000, reached on March 14th. 

Edwards outlines three possible outcomes in the wake of these developments. First, he anticipates a scenario in which the price of Bitcoin experiences a significant surge. 

Secondly, there is a likelihood that approximately 15% of miners may be forced to shut down due to unfavorable economics. Finally, Edwards suggests that average transaction fees are expected to remain substantially higher.

Based on the analysis of these metrics and the potential scenarios, Edwards boldly predicts that Bitcoin’s days under the $100,000 mark are “numbered.” While it remains to be seen which of the three outcomes will prevail, Edwards expects a combination of all three factors to contribute to Bitcoin’s price appreciation.

Optimal Buying Opportunity? 

Bitcoin has demonstrated significant price consolidation above the $60,000 mark since Friday, following temporary drops below this threshold amid mounting anticipation for the Halving event. 

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently analyzed Bitcoin’s current price state, suggesting that a potential bottom may have formed above these levels, increasing the likelihood of surpassing upper resistance levels shortly.

According to Ali Martinez’s analysis, Bitcoin strives to establish the $66,000 price level as a crucial support zone. Data reveals that approximately 1.54 million addresses collectively purchased 747,000 BTC at this level. If Bitcoin successfully secures this support, it may pave the way for further upward movement.

Martinez identifies Bitcoin’s next critical resistance levels, between $69,900 and $71,200. These levels represent significant price barriers for BTC bulls, and Bitcoin may encounter selling pressure at these levels. 

In addition, the analyst points out that the Bitcoin MVRV ratio, a metric that compares the market value of Bitcoin to its realized value, has shown a promising pattern, as seen in the chart below. 

Bitcoin

Martinez highlights that whenever the MVRV ratio falls below its 90-day average since November 2022, it historically indicates an optimal buying opportunity for Bitcoin. Interestingly, such buying opportunities have resulted in average gains of approximately 67%.

According to Martinez, based on current market conditions and an analysis of the MVRV ratio, now may be an opportune time to consider buying Bitcoin. The historical data and the potential for significant price appreciation support this view. 

Bitcoin

BTC is trading at $66,100, up 1.6% in the past 24 hours. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Battle For The Halving Block: Bitcoin Users Spend Record $2.4 Million On Block 840,000

With Bitcoin finally completing its fourth-year halving cycle, many users are aggressively competing for halving blocks, paying exorbitant amounts of fees to mine a single block. 

Bitcoin Mining Pool Pays Over $2.4 Million In Block Fees

Earlier today, the 840,000th block was added to the Bitcoin blockchain, triggering the onslaught of the highly anticipated halving event. While the price of BTC did not witness a dramatic change following the halving, transaction fees spiked to unprecedented highs. 

Amidst the massive competition, a mining pool identified as ViaBTC had successfully mined the 840,000th Bitcoin block. Cumulatively, BTC users had spent a staggering $37.7 BTC in mining fees, equivalent to $2.4 million, recording the highest fee ever paid for a Bitcoin block. 

According to reports from mempool, after ViaBTC had produced the 840,000th block, the protocol had initiated an automated reduction of miners’ reward by half, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. In addition to the fees, ViaBTC had received a total payout of 40.7 BTC, valued at approximately $2.6 million, for mining the historic block.  

While it may seem that Bitcoin miners had thrown caution to the wind by spending over $2.4 million on a single block, the 840,000th block had a major significance within the cryptocurrency space. The historic Bitcoin block is said to hold the first Satoshis, ‘sats,’ the smallest units of BTC following the halving. 

There are several of these “epic sats,” that appear after the halving event, coveted as a rare collector’s item among cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Some even speculate that these Bitcoin fragments could be potentially worth millions of dollars. 

Including the hype surrounding these fragmented BTC, much of the competition for the Bitcoin blocks, following the halving has been attributed to the new Runes Protocol which launched at the same time as the Bitcoin halving. 

Degens Rush To Secure Infamous Rune Tokens

The Runes Protocol, created by Casey Rodamor, a Bitcoin developer, has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency community, as degens are avidly competing to etch and mint tokens directly on the Bitcoin network. 

While mining pools were mining new Bitcoin blocks, degens had paid over 78.6 BTC valued at $4.95 million to mint the rarest Runes. This exponential surge in fees has been an unprecedented event, highlighting the increased adoption and participation of the Bitcoin network.

According to reports from Ord.io, a Rune labeled as ‘Decentralized’ was acquired for a fee of 7.99 BTC, equivalent to $510,760. While another titled ‘Dog-Go-To-The-Moon’ was obtained for a fee of 6.73 BTC, worth approximately $429,831.

Leonidas, protocol developer and host of the groundbreaking Ordinals, a system for numbering “epic sats,” has declared the Runes Protocol a remarkable success as degens have “single-handedly offset the drop in miner rewards from the halving.” He concluded that Runes have significantly impacted Bitcoin’s security budget, potentially playing a major role in ensuring the network’s sustainability.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Bitcoin halving)

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Fourth Bitcoin Halving Completed – Here Are The Implications

The long-awaited fourth Bitcoin halving finally occurred after BTC posted its 840,000th block. This event is significant as it is expected to have several implications for the Bitcoin ecosystem and the crypto market going forward. 

What To Expect Following The Bitcoin Halving

The Bitcoin halving slashed miners’ rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC for each block mined. This means that Bitcoin miners are set to earn a reduced income of 450 BTC instead of the 900 BTC they earned before the fourth halving. This development is expected to have a dire effect on their operations, as NewsBTC reported that they could lose a whopping $10 billion following the halving.  

While the effects of the halving are not so pleasant for BTC miners, the halving is deemed necessary for the growth of the Bitcoin ecosystem. It makes Bitcoin (BTC) deflationary by reducing the rate at which more tokens come into circulation. This could make the flagship crypto more scarce and ultimately drive up its value, as it has done in the past three halvings. 

In anticipation of history repeating itself, crypto analysts and experts have made several predictions about how high Bitcoin could rise this time post-halving. So far, the most bullish price prediction remains by Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3 and Bitcoiner, who predicts that the flagship crypto could rise to $1 million this year. 

He added that this unprecedented price surge was possible considering that BTC’s demand is expected to continue outpacing the supply, with more institutional investors recently getting on board through the Spot Bitcoin ETFs. The imbalance between Bitcoin’s supply and demand is also why crypto analyst MacronautBTC believes Bitcoin could rise to $237,000. 

Billionaire Tim Draper also agrees that Bitcoin could attain such heights based on his prediction that the flagship crypto will hit $250,000 in 2025. 

Implications On The Broader Crypto Market

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently predicted a narrative shift post-halving. He expects Bitcoin to take months to consolidate while altcoins significantly move to the upside during this period. This is plausible, considering Bitcoin doesn’t experience that parabolic price surge until about six months after the halving. 

During this period, altcoins like XRP and Cardano (ADA), which have underperformed up until now, will be closely monitored as investors wait to see if they will show any sign of bullish momentum in them. Ethereum (ETH) will also be the focus of many in the crypto community as they watch how the second-largest crypto token by market cap will perform while Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates. 

Interestingly, Van de Poppe expects the narrative to shift to Ethereum and projects in the Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) and Real World Assets (RWA) sector. Therefore, such projects are also worth keeping an eye on. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Bitcoin halving)

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Bitcoin Halving: Anticipating Price Impact, Miner Challenges, And Long-Term Outlook

The highly anticipated Bitcoin Halving event is close, bringing with it heightened expectations regarding the long-term impact on the Bitcoin price. 

There are concerns, however, that this quadrennial event may already be priced in, as Bitcoin recently reached an unprecedented all-time high of $73,700 on March 14.

This surge broke the pattern of previous Halvings, where Bitcoin had never surpassed its previous ATH before the event. However, historical data reveals significant price increases in the year following previous Halvings.

Experts Predict Delayed Bitcoin Halving Price Impact

Analysts argue that the compounding impact of reduced issuance takes several months to materialize, suggesting that the Halving itself may not prompt a significant rally before or immediately after the event. 

Deutsche Bank analysts share this sentiment, highlighting that substantial price increases have typically occurred in the run-up to previous Halvings rather than immediately after them.

Another factor to consider is the increased production costs for Bitcoin miners resulting from the Halving. As the mining reward decreases, participating in the mining process becomes less profitable. 

This has historically led to a decline in the hashrate, the total computational power used for Bitcoin mining. JPMorgan analysts predict that production costs could rise to an average of $42,000 after the Halving.

One JPMorgan analyst wrote, “This estimate is also the level we envisage Bitcoin prices drifting towards once Bitcoin-Halving-induced euphoria subsides after April.”

While these factors may influence short-term price movement, historical data reveals that the price of Bitcoin has experienced significant increases in the year following previous Halvings. 

The respective price gains for the three previous halvings were 8,760%, 2,570%, and 594%. However, it’s important to note that each successive halving has a diminishing impact on the new supply of Bitcoin.

Mining Industry Shake-Up

In the mining sector, Halving could lead to significant revenue losses, estimated to be around $10 billion annually. 

According to Fortune, publicly traded miners have taken measures to increase their resilience, diversify their offerings, and optimize their operations. However, mining stocks have faced challenges, with some experiencing significant declines.

While larger miners may undergo a period of adjustment, smaller miners and pools may be pushed offline. This could result in a wider market share for the surviving miners. 

Experts at private asset management firm Bernstein expect the mining industry to consolidate, with “smaller and less efficient players” potentially selling assets to raise capital and shore up their balance sheets. 

The increased market dominance of the surviving miners is expected to be profitable over the long term, especially with the continued structural demand for Bitcoin from ETFs.

Timing The Bitcoin Bull Market Peak

Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital has provided insights into the potential timing of Bitcoin’s bull market peak based on historical Halving cycles and the current acceleration seen in the market. 

According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has traditionally reached its peak in the bull market approximately 518-546 days after the Halving event.

However, the current cycle has shown signs of unprecedented acceleration, with Bitcoin surpassing previous all-time highs roughly 260 days ahead of historical norms. Nonetheless, the recent “pre-Halving retrace” has slowed down the cycle by around 30 days and counting.

Taking into account this accelerated perspective, if Bitcoin’s bull market peak is measured from the moment it breaks its old all-time high, it may occur 266-315 days later. As Bitcoin achieved new all-time highs in March, this suggests a potential bull market peak in December 2024 or February 2025, according to Rekt’s analysis.

Both perspectives carry significance throughout the cycle, especially if the acceleration trend persists. However, prolonged retracements or consolidation periods can slow down the cycle, potentially pushing the anticipated bull market peak further into the future.

Bitcoin Halving

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $64,300, up from the $59,000 mark reached in the early hours of Friday.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Pre-Halving Jitters: Bitcoin Price Briefly Slips Below $60,000

The Bitcoin price has recently experienced heightened volatility, causing the largest cryptocurrency in the market to briefly drop below the significant threshold of $60,000 for the first time since March 5. 

This price decrease comes just days before the highly anticipated Halving event scheduled for Friday. This event has traditionally been viewed as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin’s value due to its impact on token supply. 

However, market participants are questioning whether the Halving’s effects are already factored into the current market conditions, leading to extended bearish sentiment.

Long-Term Bullish Outlook Prevails

Bitcoin’s decline saw it plummet by 5% to $59,890, though it recovered some losses shortly afterward. Since reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 on March 14, the Bitcoin price has now retraced by approximately 18%. 

The downward trend extended to other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE), which also experienced slumps on Wednesday.

The impending Halving, a quadrennial code update in Bitcoin, has raised concerns among investors as to whether it will be a significant market-moving event or a non-event overshadowed by other factors, such as the ongoing discussions surrounding the Bitcoin ETF market, which has seen a significant decrease in terms of outflows.  

Nathanaël Cohen, co-founder of INDIGO Fund, noted that market participants are de-risking due to this uncertainty and the additional macro factor of tensions in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran, putting further pressure on risk assets.

The recent decline in Bitcoin’s price was further exacerbated by a wave of liquidations in long positions for digital assets. Last Friday alone, approximately $780 million worth of bullish crypto wagers were liquidated within 24 hours. 

Despite the recent market turbulence, some participants maintain a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Some see the recent liquidations and subsequent flushing out of leverage in the crypto market as a positive development. 

Ravi Doshi, head of markets at FalconX, reported increased buying of longer-dated call options on their derivatives desk, suggesting that clients anticipate higher prices in the latter half of the year.

Bitcoin Price Rebounds Above $61,000

Following the brief dip below the $60,000 mark, the Bitcoin price has rebounded, currently trading at $61,600. This recovery is viewed as a bullish sign, with the cryptocurrency’s macro uptrend structure remaining intact as long as price levels of $51,000 and $42,000 are maintained. 

Bitcoin price

The market is closely watching whether the theory suggesting that the Halving price catalyst is already factored into the current market conditions holds. Additionally, the performance of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States and their potential impact on driving the cryptocurrency’s price back to previous highs are of significant interest.

Furthermore, the recent approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF market in Hong Kong is expected to contribute to increased adoption of the leading cryptocurrency. Although some experts do not consider it as significant as the US ETF market, it is anticipated to generate a surge in price and further strengthen Bitcoin’s position.

Ultimately, the outcome of the Halving event, combined with the developments in both the US and Hong Kong ETF markets, remains uncertain. The ability of Bitcoin to regain its bullish momentum and drive increased demand will be closely monitored.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Historical Trends Show What To Expect For Bitcoin Price Following The Halving

The 2024 Bitcoin halving is only two days away, and there are already varying expectations of what might happen to the BTC price once the event is completed. One way to get an idea of how it could play out for the Bitcoin price, though, is through historical data and how the cryptocurrency has performed at times like these.

Bitcoin Price Trends For Previous Halvings

There have been three halvings so far since Bitcoin was first launched in 2009 and with each one, Bitcoin has demonstrated various reactions to the event. The first halving took place on November 28, 2012, the second happened on July 9, 2016, and the last one was on May 11, 2020.

For the purpose of this report, only the last two halving will be referenced given that adoption had began to climb at the time that these two happened. The 2016 halving happened when Bitcoin was trading around $650, but in the weeks following the halving, the BTC price would drop another 30%, reaching as low as $460 before climbing back up once again.

Bitcoin halving 2016

Then, during the 2020 halving, the BTC price was trending just under $10,000, and following the halving, would see a drop in price as well. However, this drop was not as significant as the 2016 drop, with the BTC price only falling around 15% during this time.

Bitcoin halving 2020

This has formed quite a trend with the halving, where the Bitcoin price falls after the event, which is expected to be bullish. Therefore, if this trend continues, then BTC could see a sharp drop in price despite the expectation that the halving will be bullish for price.

However, it is important to consider that subsequent halvings have seen a lower post-halving crash compared to their predecessors. So, if this holds this year, Bitcoin could still be looking at a crash but to a much lesser degree. For example, the 2020 post-halving crash was half of the 2016 post-halving crash, so holding this trend, the crash this time around could only be an around 7-8% crash.

BTC Deviates From Established Halving Trends

While the historical data does suggest where Bitcoin could be headed following the crash, it is also important to note that the digital asset has deviated from a number of pre-halving trends. One of these deviations is the fact that the Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high before the halving, something that has never happened before. This could suggest that there will be a complete deviation from these established trends, meaning that a crash may not follow the halving after all.

Another deviation is that the few weeks leading up to the last two Bitcoin halvings have been green. However, in 2024, the last three weeks leading up to the halving have been red as the BTC price has been in decline. This also lends credence to the fact that there could also be a deviation from its post-halving trends.

One thing to keep in mind though, is that the crypto market has always been uncertain and Bitcoin has a habit of doing what no one expected. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has seen a pull back from the extreme greed territory, but it continues to remain in greed, which means investors are still bullish. In this case, if Bitcoin were to do the opposite of what is expected, then it could follow the established trend and crash back down.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Crypto Exchanges Bitcoin Supply Can Only Last For 9 Months, ByBit Report

Cryptocurrency exchange and trading platform, Bybit has released a new report highlighting the impacts of the upcoming Bitcoin halving event on the supply dynamics of Bitcoin within exchanges in the crypto space. The crypto firm has provided valuable insights on how the halving event would enhance scarcity and considerably influence the price of BTC. 

Exchanges Set To Face Bitcoin Supply Crunch

On Tuesday, April 16, Bybit published a new report, providing a detailed analysis of the Bitcoin halving event set to take place this month. The crypto firm disclosed that the Bitcoin reserves within the world’s crypto exchanges have been depleting at a rapid pace, leaving only nine months of BTC supply left on exchanges. 

For a clearer perspective, Bybit explains that with just two million Bitcoin left in its total supply, a daily influx of $500 million into Spot Bitcoin ETFs would result in approximately 7,142 BTC leaving exchanges daily. This suggests that it would take only nine months to completely consume all of the remaining BTC reserves on exchanges. 

Bybit has stated that a major contributor to this supply squeeze would be the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which would reduce the cryptocurrency’s total supply by 50% by cutting Bitcoin miners’ rewards in half. 

The crypto exchange has also disclosed that after the halving event, the sell-side supply of BTC flowing into Centralized Exchanges (CEXs) will become grossly reduced. Additionally, Bitcoin’s “supply squeeze will ostensibly be worse.”

BTC To Become “Twice As Rare As Gold”

In its report, Bybit compared Bitcoin’s supply after the halving event with that of gold. The crypto exchange revealed that Bitcoin was steadily growing to become one of the safest investment choices, even for the most seasoned and sophisticated investors within the crypto space. 

According to the exchange, the Bitcoin halving event would significantly impact the cryptocurrency’s scarcity factor, making it an even rarer asset than gold. 

Basing this analysis on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio, Bybit disclosed that Bitcoin’s S2F ratio is around 56 currently, while gold’s ratio is 60. After the halving event this April, Bitcoin’s S2F ratio is projected to increase to 112. 

“Each Bitcoin halving sharpens the narrative of Bitcoin as not just a currency, but a scarce digital asset, akin to digital gold. This upcoming halving in 2024 will thrust BTC into an era of unprecedented scarcity, making it twice as rare as gold,” the Co-founder and CEO of Bybit, Ben Zhou stated. 

While highlighting the significance of Bitcoin’s rarity following the halving event, another report also disclosed that the price of Bitcoin would experience significant upward pressure post-halving. This suggests that BTC’S supply squeeze could potentially propel its price to new heights during this period. 

Furthermore, the report revealed that several crypto analysts predict that the post-halving increase in Bitcoin’s price would be less remarkable than the early pre-halving surge which saw the price of Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs of more than $73,000.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com