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Pantera Capital Predicts Bitcoin Price Surge To $117,000: Insight Into The Timing And Factors

The Bitcoin price has experienced heightened volatility over the past week. After recovering from a low of $56,500, the largest cryptocurrency in the market surged to $65,500 within four days. However, it has since retraced some of its gains and is currently testing the $61,000 support level. 

Despite this volatility and the absence of strong bullish momentum, venture capital firm Pantera Capital remains optimistic about the future of BTC’s price, citing the recent Halving event as a significant factor.

Pantera Capital Projects $117,000 Price Target By 2025

In a recent investor letter, Pantera Capital revealed its Bitcoin Halving rallies model, which predicts a bottoming out of the BTC price followed by a rise through the Halving rally. 

Based on the average duration of previous rallies, the firm forecasts that BTC’s price will peak at $117,000 in August 2025. The average total duration of this cycle, encompassing pre- and post-Halving rallies, has historically been around 2.6 years, with symmetry observed across cycles.

Pantera Capital highlights the relationship between Halving events and BTC’s price. The firm asserts that if the demand for new Bitcoin remains constant while the supply of new Bitcoin is reduced by half, it will create upward pressure on the price. 

The anticipation of a price increase has also historically driven increased demand for Bitcoin leading up to Halving events. However, Pantera Capital acknowledges that the impact of each subsequent Halving on price may diminish as the reduction in the supply of new Bitcoin from previous Halvings becomes less significant.

Moreover, the firm notes that, on average, the Pantera Bitcoin Fund has nearly doubled in value for eleven years. Based on this historical performance, Pantera Capital envisions a scenario in which the price of Bitcoin reaches $117,000 by 2025.

Bullish Bitcoin Price Predictions

Renowned crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has recently taken to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to share bullish predictions for the Bitcoin price. With forecasts ranging from $75,000 to $110,000, Titan of Crypto highlights various factors and patterns that could potentially drive BTC’s growth.

According to Titan of Crypto, a price rise to $110,000 for Bitcoin is “programmed.” While the analyst did not elaborate on the specifics of this programming, it suggests a strong conviction in BTC’s potential to reach that level.

Titan of Crypto also identifies a current head-and-shoulders pattern in the Bitcoin price chart. If this pattern holds, the analyst suggests that BTC could rise to the $75,000 mark. If confirmed, this pattern could signify a bullish trend reversal and further support the projection of Bitcoin reaching higher price levels.

The analyst also highlighted $61,500 as a critical point to monitor due to the possibility of “panic selling.” The analyst suggests many market participants might react to this level, potentially increasing selling pressure. 

Lastly, based on his analysis, the analyst suggests a conservative price prediction of $108,000. However, Titan of Crypto believes that BTC’s price may exceed this projection, indicating a more optimistic outlook.

Bitcoin price

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Timing The Breakout: When Will Bitcoin Escape The Post-Halving Consolidation?

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in the market, has been trading within a re-accumulation range between the $59,000 and $70,000 price levels for the past month and a half. 

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently shared its perspective on this phase and its potential duration, drawing from historical patterns and data in a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter).

Breakout Timing And Historical Patterns

According to Rekt’s analysis, Bitcoin tends to experience a re-accumulation range following the Halving event, which occurs every four years to counteract any inflationary effect on Bitcoin by lowering the reward amount for miners and maintaining scarcity. 

Historically, This consolidation phase lasts up to 150 days before Bitcoin breaks into a parabolic uptrend. Based on this pattern, if Bitcoin continues to consolidate for the next 150 days, Rekt suggests a breakout would be expected in September 2024.

The ideal duration of a re-accumulation range is crucial in determining Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Rekt Capital noted that when Bitcoin reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 in mid-March, it accelerated its cycle by 260 days. However, with over 49 days of consolidation, the acceleration has reduced to approximately 210 days.

Resetting The Bitcoin Halving Cycle

Repeating historical trends, where Bitcoin consolidates for 150 days after the Halving, would still indicate an acceleration in the current cycle, albeit by a lesser extent of 60 days. 

Nevertheless, Rekt contends that Bitcoin would ideally need to consolidate for at least 210 days to fully resynchronize with its historical Halving cycles and reset the current acceleration in this cycle to 0. This would bring the rate of acceleration to 0 days and potentially lead to a breakout around November 2024.

The analyst further suggested that to achieve a 200+ day post-Halving consolidation and fully resynchronize with historical Halving cycles, Bitcoin would need to replicate its mid-2023 re-accumulation range, which lasted 224 days before a new uptrend emerged. Rekt concluded:

Overall, how long this current Re-Accumulation Range will last will dictate the remaining acceleration in this cycle and ultimately influence where Bitcoin will finally peak in its Bull Market. 

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization of $1.2 billion, is currently trading at $64,400, showing minimal fluctuations compared to Thursday’s price movements. 

Recently, Bitcoin has encountered resistance at the $66,000 level, hindering its ability to consolidate above this threshold. Conversely, the $63,400 level may serve as a support base for the cryptocurrency in the event of heightened downward volatility over the weekend.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitwise CIO Unveils 5 Major Forecasts For Bitcoin 2028 Halving, Anticipates A 280% Price Surge

Bitwise Chief Information Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan recently shared five interesting predictions for the next Halving of the Bitcoin (BTC) network, scheduled for 2028. In a comprehensive report, Hougan sheds light on the potential transformations for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

New Investors And ETFs As Catalysts

One of Hougan’s key predictions is that Bitcoin’s volatility will significantly decline by 50%. He argues that the entry of new investors through the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market will drive this decline. 

Hougan said that as financial advisors, family offices, and institutions enter the Bitcoin market, their different investment behaviors – such as portfolio rebalancing and steady drip investments – could introduce counter-cyclical flows, ultimately dampening Bitcoin’s volatility.

Hougan’s second prediction revolves around the allocation of Bitcoin in portfolios. He believes that 5% allocations to Bitcoin will become commonplace in target-date portfolios. As BTC’s volatility decreases and becomes more attractive to institutional investors, Hougan expects a rise in typical portfolio allocations. 

The Bitwise CIO predicts that Bitcoin ETFs will attract over $200 billion in inflows. He highlights their impressive growth and cites their status as the fastest-growing new ETF category of all time. 

Hougan suggests that the ETF market is still in its early stages, with national wirehouses and institutions just beginning their due diligence. Drawing parallels with the rise of gold ETFs, which experienced year-after-year growth in net flows, he anticipates a similar trend for Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin Price Path Toward $250,000

In an intriguing projection, Hougan suggests that central banks will allocate funds to Bitcoin before the next Halving event. He notes that central banks have historically been significant investors in gold, accumulating substantial amounts of the metal. 

However, with Bitcoin’s characteristics as non-debt money and its functional advantages over gold regarding payments and settlement, Hougan believes central banks will be increasingly drawn to Bitcoin. Hougan further noted on this matter:

There is also an element of game theory here. A major central bank adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset would be a game-changer for Bitcoin and, I believe, would contribute to a dramatic increase in prices. Will one central bank try to front-run the others? 

Hougan’s final prediction revolves around Bitcoin’s price. He forecasts that Bitcoin will trade above $250,000 by 2028, an increase of nearly 280% from current levels. 

The Bitwise CIO attributes Bitcoin’s previous exponential growth to its transition from a speculative asset to one with real-world utility. 

Factors such as declining volatility, improved custody options, low correlations to traditional stocks, enhanced accessibility through ETFs, and growing institutional adoption all contribute to Hougan’s optimism regarding Bitcoin’s future progress. Hougan concluded by stating:

With the ETFs launched and gathering assets—and major Wall Street firms lining up behind bitcoin—I suspect the asset will continue to move further into the mainstream. At $250,000, bitcoin would be a $5 trillion asset. Could it go higher? Of course. But $250,000 would represent solid progress between halvings, and I think we’ll see at least that.

Bitcoin

Currently trading at $64,500, BTC is down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours after retesting the $67,000 mark on Tuesday and failing to consolidate above that level.  

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Halving: Anticipating Price Impact, Miner Challenges, And Long-Term Outlook

The highly anticipated Bitcoin Halving event is close, bringing with it heightened expectations regarding the long-term impact on the Bitcoin price. 

There are concerns, however, that this quadrennial event may already be priced in, as Bitcoin recently reached an unprecedented all-time high of $73,700 on March 14.

This surge broke the pattern of previous Halvings, where Bitcoin had never surpassed its previous ATH before the event. However, historical data reveals significant price increases in the year following previous Halvings.

Experts Predict Delayed Bitcoin Halving Price Impact

Analysts argue that the compounding impact of reduced issuance takes several months to materialize, suggesting that the Halving itself may not prompt a significant rally before or immediately after the event. 

Deutsche Bank analysts share this sentiment, highlighting that substantial price increases have typically occurred in the run-up to previous Halvings rather than immediately after them.

Another factor to consider is the increased production costs for Bitcoin miners resulting from the Halving. As the mining reward decreases, participating in the mining process becomes less profitable. 

This has historically led to a decline in the hashrate, the total computational power used for Bitcoin mining. JPMorgan analysts predict that production costs could rise to an average of $42,000 after the Halving.

One JPMorgan analyst wrote, “This estimate is also the level we envisage Bitcoin prices drifting towards once Bitcoin-Halving-induced euphoria subsides after April.”

While these factors may influence short-term price movement, historical data reveals that the price of Bitcoin has experienced significant increases in the year following previous Halvings. 

The respective price gains for the three previous halvings were 8,760%, 2,570%, and 594%. However, it’s important to note that each successive halving has a diminishing impact on the new supply of Bitcoin.

Mining Industry Shake-Up

In the mining sector, Halving could lead to significant revenue losses, estimated to be around $10 billion annually. 

According to Fortune, publicly traded miners have taken measures to increase their resilience, diversify their offerings, and optimize their operations. However, mining stocks have faced challenges, with some experiencing significant declines.

While larger miners may undergo a period of adjustment, smaller miners and pools may be pushed offline. This could result in a wider market share for the surviving miners. 

Experts at private asset management firm Bernstein expect the mining industry to consolidate, with “smaller and less efficient players” potentially selling assets to raise capital and shore up their balance sheets. 

The increased market dominance of the surviving miners is expected to be profitable over the long term, especially with the continued structural demand for Bitcoin from ETFs.

Timing The Bitcoin Bull Market Peak

Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital has provided insights into the potential timing of Bitcoin’s bull market peak based on historical Halving cycles and the current acceleration seen in the market. 

According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has traditionally reached its peak in the bull market approximately 518-546 days after the Halving event.

However, the current cycle has shown signs of unprecedented acceleration, with Bitcoin surpassing previous all-time highs roughly 260 days ahead of historical norms. Nonetheless, the recent “pre-Halving retrace” has slowed down the cycle by around 30 days and counting.

Taking into account this accelerated perspective, if Bitcoin’s bull market peak is measured from the moment it breaks its old all-time high, it may occur 266-315 days later. As Bitcoin achieved new all-time highs in March, this suggests a potential bull market peak in December 2024 or February 2025, according to Rekt’s analysis.

Both perspectives carry significance throughout the cycle, especially if the acceleration trend persists. However, prolonged retracements or consolidation periods can slow down the cycle, potentially pushing the anticipated bull market peak further into the future.

Bitcoin Halving

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $64,300, up from the $59,000 mark reached in the early hours of Friday.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Goldman Sachs On Bitcoin Halving: ‘It doesn’t Matter If It’s A Buy The Rumor, Sell The News Event’

Analysts at Goldman Sachs, a leading global banking and investment management firm, have offered valuable insights into the anticipated effects of the forthcoming Bitcoin halving, on the price of the cryptocurrency. They emphasize that while the Bitcoin halving is a noteworthy event, other major factors will likely exert greater influence on Bitcoin’s future value. 

Bitcoin Halving To Play Lesser Role In BTC’s Outlook

In a note to clients, Goldman Sach’s analysts have cautioned against reading too much into the past Bitcoin halving cycles and their impact on the cryptocurrency. Based on historical trends, the Bitcoin halving cycles tend to have a favorable effect on the value of Bitcoin, often triggering a bull run. 

The bank noted that whether the Bitcoin halving scheduled for April 20, becomes a “buy the rumor, sell the news event,” it would hold less significance for the cryptocurrency’s medium-term outlook.

They argue that the future performance of the pioneer cryptocurrency would be more heavily influenced by the supply and demand dynamics within the current market. Additionally, the analysts highlighted that the growing interest and demand for Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) combined with the self-reflexive nature of the crypto market would be the primary contributing factor to Bitcoin’s price action and future outlook. 

Sharing a similar perspective, analysts at CryptoQuant disclosed earlier in April that the 2024 Bitcoin halving was no longer a primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s bullish surge. They highlighted that factors such as increasing demand from large-scale investors and diminishing supply were now the key drivers of Bitcoin’s upward momentum.  

Analysts Warn Of Macroeconomic Influence On New Halving Cycle

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have predicted that macroeconomic factors such as inflation could have a significant influence on the upcoming Bitcoin halving event. 

“Caution should be taken against extrapolating the past cycles and the impact of halving, given the respective prevailing macro conditions,” Goldman Sachs analysts noted.

Unlike previous halving cycles, the present economic conditions display high inflationary pressures and interest rates, which could cause the 2024 Bitcoin halving cycle to diverge from historical patterns. In other words, the analysts have suggested that for Bitcoin’s historical halving bull runs to occur, macro conditions need to be supportive of investor risk-taking. 

Currently, the United States faces challenges with high inflation, while interest rates stand above 5%. These conditions may exert pressure on Bitcoin’s market dynamics. However, despite the prevailing circumstances, many see the digital currency as a formidable inflation hedge and a beacon of hope against escalating inflationary pressures.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com