Bitcoin Mega Whales Are Buying, Time For Rally To Return?

On-chain data shows that the largest number of investors in the Bitcoin market are finally buying, which could be bullish for the asset’s value.

Bitcoin Mega Whales Have Shown Net Inflows In The Past Day

In the past few weeks, the Bitcoin price has struggled to mount any significant bullish momentum as it has been stuck consolidating inside a range.

Earlier, while this was happening, the largest holders in the space had been sitting quietly, not buying or selling anything notable. According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, however, this appears to have changed in the past day.

Relevant holders here are the “Large Holders,” who, as defined by the analytics firm, are investors carrying at least 0.1% of the entire circulating Bitcoin supply in their wallets.

A little under 19.7 million tokens are circulating for the cryptocurrency, 0.1% of which would be 19,700 BTC. This amount is worth more than $1.26 billion at the current exchange rate of BTC.

Clearly, these large holders are quite large indeed, and in fact, they are much larger than the usual whale investors, who typically carry between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. As such, it would perhaps be apt to call these humongous entities “mega whales.”

Since an investor’s influence in the market increases the larger their holdings, these mega whales would be the most powerful entities on the Bitcoin network. Therefore, their moves can have some consequences for the wider market.

IntoTheBlock has used the netflow on-chain indicator to track the movements of the Large Holders here, which measures the net amount of BTC entering or exiting the wallets of these investors.

The below chart shows the trend in this metric over the last few months:

Bitcoin Large Holder Netflow

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Large Holders netflow registered a notable positive spike yesterday, meaning these investors have received a net amount of coins into their wallets. The mega whales bought 19,760 BTC during this spike, worth more than $1.27 billion.

“Historically, accumulations by these addresses have often preceded rises in Bitcoin’s price,” notes the analytics firm. The chart shows that some extraordinary buys came from this cohort on the way to the new all-time high for the asset.

As such, it’s possible that these latest buys will also help the asset gain some bullish momentum in the near future. However, something to note is that the scale of the latest spike, although large on its own, isn’t quite as prominent as that of some of the large buys seen earlier.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $64,500, down more than 5% over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Bitcoin Mega Whales Return To Selling Mode, More Downside Soon?

On-chain data shows the largest of the Bitcoin whales have returned to distribution, a sign that could be bearish for the asset’s price.

Bitcoin Investors With More Than 10,000 BTC Are Selling Again

As explained by analyst James V. Straten in a new post on X, the BTC whales, who had earlier been in a phase of accumulation, have switched their behavior to that of distribution now.

The relevant indicator here is the “Trend Accumulation Score” from Glassnode, which keeps track of whether Bitcoin investors have been buying or selling during the past month. This metric finds this value by looking at the balance changes in the addresses of the holders.

The score also puts a higher weightage on the larger entities, meaning that the accumulation of a few large holders would be more significant for the indicator than the behavior of the smaller hands.

When the Trend Accumulation Score has a value close to 1, it means that there is a trend of net accumulation in the market right now. On the other hand, values close to zero imply distribution is the dominant behavior currently.

Now, here is how this score has changed for the various Bitcoin investor cohorts since the start of the year:

Bitcoin Trend Accumulation Score

As you can see above, the entire Bitcoin market had been displaying a net distribution behavior during August as the accumulation trend score had been a shade of red for all the cohorts (with the deeper shades naturally being closer to the zero mark). During this selloff period, BTC had registered a significant drawdown.

At the start of September, most of the investor groups had still continued to sell, but interestingly, the largest cohort in the sector, the holders carrying more than 10,000 BTC ($262.7 million at the current exchange rate) had started accumulating instead.

This group may be called the “mega whales,” since these investors stand out even among the whales. From the data, it’s visible that while these mega whales had been buying earlier in the month, they have recently again shown a shift in their behavior.

The Trend Accumulation Score has declined for these humongous entities and now it’s leaning toward distribution. This may suggest that while these investors had thought the earlier lows presented ideal entry opportunities, the fact that the coin has only continued to stagnate recently may have changed their minds.

At present, though, the mega whales aren’t dumping Bitcoin at too large a scale. The same is not true for the rest of the cohorts, however, who have taken to some pretty heavy selling recently, as the Trend Accumulation Score has turned deep red for them.

This market-wide selling could be a troubling sign for the cryptocurrency and may be a foreshadowing of a drawdown in the near future.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been showing a trend of overall consolidation since the crash back in August, as the cryptocurrency continues to float around the $26,200 mark.

Bitcoin Price Chart