Bitcoin Miner Selloff Poses “Negligible Impact”, Quant Argues

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin miners have been selling recently, but this quant has argued that this selloff shouldn’t have much impact on the market.

Bitcoin Miner Reserve Has Registered A Decline Recently

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst discussed the latest selling pressure that the miners have been putting on the market. The indicator of interest here is the “miner reserve,” which keeps track of the total amount of Bitcoin that the miners combined hold in their wallets right now.

This metric can naturally provide information about the collective behavior of these chain validators. Generally, the miners withdraw their coins from their reserve when they want to sell, so a decline in the indicator can potentially have bearish consequences for the asset.

A rise in the metric, on the other hand, may be bullish for the cryptocurrency’s price as it suggests the miners as a whole are in accumulation mode at the moment.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin miner reserve over the past year:

Bitcoin Miner Reserve

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin miner reserve has been on its way down since October, implying that this cohort has withdrawn a net amount of BTC from their wallets during this period.

This latest selloff from the miners has recently been a topic in the community, with many speculating about the possible bearish impact arising from it. The quant has a different opinion on the matter, however.

“The sell-off of Bitcoin reserves by miners, as discussed on X and various portals, is unfounded,” explains the analyst. To back this claim, the quant has pointed out the exact numbers involved here.

Before this selling started, the miner reserve had a value of around 1,84,997 BTC. Following the decline that the indicator has witnessed since then, the miners now hold about 1,833,222 BTC.

This represents a decrease of 12,755 BTC, which, although substantial on its own, doesn’t seem too large in the grand scheme of things, especially considering the size of the miner reserve itself. “The minimal amount of bitcoin sold has negligible impact on the market,” notes the analyst.

Bitcoin Miner Inflows & Outflows

The above chart shows the data for the Bitcoin inflows and outflows being made by the miners. There have indeed been outflows taking place recently, which is why there has been talk of a selloff.

At the same time, the inflow transaction volume has also been at significant levels, making up for these outflows. This is the reason for the relatively small net decrease in the total miner reserve.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had recovered beyond the $43,000 mark earlier, but the asset has seen a setback during the past day as it has slipped back towards $42,500.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Bitcoin Miners Show Accumulation Again, Bullish Sign?

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin miners have been expanding their reserves recently, a sign that could be bullish for the asset’s price.

Bitcoin Miner Reserve Has Been Trending Up Recently

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, BTC miners have been accumulating during the past 48 days. The indicator of interest here is the “miner reserve,” which measures the total amount of Bitcoin that all miners are holding in their wallets right now.

Related Reading: These Bitcoin Metrics Are At Important Retests, Will Bullish Trend Prevail?

When the value of this metric goes down, it means that the miners are withdrawing coins from their wallets currently. Generally, these chain validators only transfer coins out of their reserve whenever they want to sell them, so this kind of trend can have bearish implications for the price.

On the other hand, the indicator increasing in value implies the miners are adding a net amount of BTC to their wallets. Such a trend can be a sign that these investors are accumulating at the moment, and hence, can be bullish for the cryptocurrency.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin miner reserve over the last couple of months:

Bitcoin Miner Reserve

As shown in the above graph, the Bitcoin miner reserve had observed a large rise back in May, but soon after this increase, this cohort started selling as the asset’s price continued to show struggle.

After the rally had taken place in June, however, the indicator’s value had stabilized, meaning that these investors were selling the same amount as they were adding to their holdings.

In the last few weeks, this sideways trend has slowly turned into an uptrend, as the miners have been gradually expanding their reserves. In the past 48 days, these chain validators have added a total of around 4,060 BTC to their holdings.

This amount is worth around $118 million at the current exchange rate, which isn’t a ton given the scale of the total miner reserve, but it’s still nonetheless a positive sign that the miners have been accumulating despite the cryptocurrency’s price observing some decline recently.

A notable portion of this latest accumulation by the miners has come from one mining pool, AntPool, as the below chart displays.

Bitcoin Antpool Reserve

In the past 52 days, the AntPool Bitcoin mining pool has added a total of about 1,020 BTC to their reserves, which is more than 25% of the total accumulation that all the miners have participated in during this period.

The quant has also attached the data for the exchange flows (as well the normal outflows/inflow) for this mining pool. Earlier, there was some concern around the market that these miners may have been selling as they were depositing to exchanges, but as it turned out, this cohort was merely transferring their coins back and forth from these platforms.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,100, up 1% in the last week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Bitcoin Miner Reserve Rising: Good News For BTC Bulls?

Bitcoin prices have been stagnant, trading below the psychological $30,000 level. The coin is technically under pressure, declining from its peaks of around $31,800 recorded in early July 2023. Amid this development, on-chain data reveals that the Bitcoin miner reserve has been increasing, notwithstanding prevailing market conditions, bouncing back from May 2023 lows. According to data from CryptoQuant, the BTC miner reserve stands at 1.841 million as of July 30, up from 1.826 million on May 27.

Bitcoin Miner Reserve - All Miners

Bitcoin Miner Reserve Rising

The increasing BTC miner reserve and relatively stable and steady coin prices suggest a sense of optimism among miners. This could improve sentiment and confidence among miners, possibly boosting prices and preventing sellers from pressing the coin even lower. Presently, as mentioned earlier, BTC is trending below $30,000.

BTC price on July 30| Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

In crypto, the Bitcoin miner reserve measures all BTC in the hands of all miners and mining pools. It shows the total number of BTC that is yet to be liquidated. Price-wise, this is important. Miners frequently sell their coins to cover operational costs and realize profits. Therefore, trackers often monitor their trading patterns for valuable insights into market sentiment.

Bitcoin miner reserve trends are important for traders. However, other critical factors could influence prices in future sessions, some of which might have adverse effects. One key consideration is how different countries decide to regulate cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, as their move can impact liquidity and investor perception. 

Regulation, Energy Consumption Criticism Negative For Prices

In the United States, for instance, the approval or rejection of a Bitcoin Spot ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could significantly affect Bitcoin’s price in the months ahead. The approval of a Bitcoin ETF would enable institutional players to include Bitcoin in their portfolios, injecting capital into the crypto markets and potentially increasing liquidity. Currently, Grayscale’s GBTC, a close-ended trust, allows institutions to get exposure to Bitcoin without directly buying BTC. 

Beyond price-related factors, Bitcoin’s proof-of-work network has faced criticism for its substantial energy consumption to power its operations. In response to environmental concerns, China banned Bitcoin and crypto mining activities, resulting in a drop in the network’s hash rate and negatively impacting BTC prices. Whether the US and Europe will follow a similar path in the future could also have implications for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Bitcoin Miners Have Been Dumping, But Price Has Held So Far

On-chain data shows Bitcoin miners have been dumping during the past couple of weeks, but the price of the crypto has held up so far.

Bitcoin Miner Reserve Has Lost 10k BTC In Last Two Weeks As Miners Sell

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, while miners have been selling in recent days, the value of BTC has refused to budge.

The “miner reserve” is an indicator that measures the total amount of Bitcoin currently present in the wallets of all miners.

When the value of this metric goes down, it means coins are exiting miner wallets right now. As miners usually transfer out their BTC for selling on exchanges, such a trend can be bearish for the crypto’s price.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Sets Record For Worst Quarter Since 2011, What’s Next?

On the other hand, the value of the reserve rising up can suggest miners are accumulating at the moment as their wallets are filling up. Naturally, this kind of trend, if prolonged, can be bullish for BTC.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin miner reserve over the last year and a half:

Looks like the value of the indicator has plummeted down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin miner reserve reached a local high on 17th June. Since then, the metric has observed a sharp decline in the last couple of weeks.

This means that a large amount of coins have exited miner wallets during this period. The total withdrawal seems to have measured at about 10k BTC.

Related Reading | SEC Still Against Spot-based Bitcoin ETFs. Is There A Light At The End Of The Tunnel?

While this decline has occurred, however, the price has mostly observed sideways movement. This could mean that there is currently enough buying happening in the market to make up for this selling from the miners.

The quant in the post believes that the price holding through this dumping and other recent negative news like multiple lending platforms approaching bankruptcy, can be a sign that the bottom may be in.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $20.4k, up 7% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 37% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.

The value of the crypto seems to have observed an uplift during the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

After moving sideways around the $19k mark for a while, Bitcoin finally seems to have gained some footing above $20k during the past few days.

Featured image from Mariia Shalabaieva on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com