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Bitcoin Halving Retrace Spooks Investors: What Is It And Why Does It Matter?

The Bitcoin price crash over the past day has taken crypto investors by surprise, leading to a full bleed day for the industry. However, while this may have come as a shock to many, some were able to call it out ahead of time. One of those is Rent Capital, which said the decline was in line with Bitcoin’s established halving trend.

An Expected Crash

The analysis posted by Rest Capital outlines the trends that Bitcoin has followed leading up to its halving months. In 2020, the halving fell on the month of May and in the month leading up to the rally, the Bitcoin price saw an approximately 20% decline.

Over the years, Bitcoin has followed similar patterns to usher in the anticipated halving and while there has been some deviation this time around, the digital asset looks to be maintain some trends. One of these trends is the price crash before the halving.

As Rekt Capital’s analysis shows, Bitcoin is right in region of where this crash is expected to happen. The previous trends have seen the price fall between 20% and 38% in the month before the halving. So taking this into account, the BTC price could crash around 25% on average if it sticks to this trend.

The crypto analyst also revealed their target for if Bitcoin follows this trend. The crash is expected to push the BTC price below the $40,000. However, if the average plays out, then the price could bottom out above $40,000 before rebounding.

Why This Crash Is Important For Bitcoin

The crash is a confirmation that the Bitcoin price is following the established pre-halving trend and also confirms the incoming bull market. Going by the previous trends, the halving takes place after the crash, following which there is some upside the is seen with the cryptocurrency.

Then, in the months following the halving, there is massive accumulation that serves as a precursor to the bull market. In this case, this accumulation is expected to begin sometime in April 2024 and then continue on for a few months.

The crash, as Rekt Capital points out, also serves as the last opportunity for cryptocurrency investors to get into position at the lowest prices. This is because once the halving is complete and the bull market begins, low prices become a thing of the past.

At the time of writing, the BTC price is seeing minor recovery from its crash below $63,000. It I trading at $63,500, but with a 5.91% decline on the daily chart and a 12.19% decline on the weekly chart, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin Crosses $59,000 In Surprise Pre-Halving Rally

The Bitcoin price has now successfully crossed the $59,000 level after an incredibly bullish month of February. The market leader has also barreled ahead of all expectations during this time as well, continuing to rally at a time when prices are expected to crash ahead of the next halving.

Institutional Investors Drive Bitcoin Price Higher

One of the major drivers behind the Bitcoin performance over the last day has been institutional investors. These investors have continued to take advantage of the opportunities provided by the Bitcoin Spot ETFs approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January.

While there have been outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust due to concerns about high fees, the inflows have not slowed. On Tuesday, Bloomberg Analyst James Seyffart revealed that Spot ETF inflows rose once again, to cross $400 million in a single day.

In the same vein, the trading volumes have been on the rise. With demand soaring, volumes crossed $2 billion on Tuesday and it is the second time in a month that it has crossed this figure. This rise in both inflows and trading volumes shows a willingness among institutional investors to take positions in Bitcoin.

Fidelity Investments, one of the issues of the many Spot Bitcoin ETFs available for trading in the market, also recently encouraged investors to put a small portion of their portfolios in Bitcoin. According to the asset manager, a portfolio allocation of 1-3% in Bitcoin is ideal at this point.

Now, while a 1-3% allocation may seem small to the average investor, it is quite large when it comes to institutional investing. These portfolios are often made up of billions of dollars, and even a 1-3% allocation could work out to hundreds of millions of dollars being funneled into Bitcoin.

BTC Dominance Not Budging

While the price of Bitcoin has rallied in the last week, expectations are that Bitcoin will begin to consolidate and then give way to altcoins. However, the BTC dominance over the crypto market remains quite high, suggesting that the time for altcoins may not be here yet.

Presently, the BTC dominance is sitting at 54.1% after seeing a local peak of 54.4%.  This shows that Bitcoin is still leading the entire market by a large margin, and until this dominance subsides, Bitcoin will continue to lead the rally while altcoins lag behind.

For now, the bulls are focusing on maintaining support at $59,000, giving it a bounce point toward $60,000. With the previous all-time high at $69,000, the BTC price needs a less than 20% move from here to reach a new all-time high.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Why Is Bitcoin Price Up Above $43,000 Today?

Bitcoin is back above $43,000 just days after making a swift recovery from below $40,000 to $42,000. This trend reversal is believed to be due to a number of recent developments that have painted a bullish narrative for the flagship crypto token. 

The Grayscale Effect Is Wearing Off

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart recently highlighted how BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, went toe-to-toe with Grayscale’s GBTC on Day 12 of trading in terms of trading volume. This happened to be the closest that IBIT or any Spot Bitcoin ETF had come close to GBTC, which holds the “liquidity crown.”

This represents a positive development for Bitcoin’s price since IBIT’s volume, more of inflows, is able to suppress GBTC’s volume, which has been majorly outflows. The outflows recorded by GBTC following its Spot Bitcoin ETF conversion had partly contributed to the flagship crypto token dropping below $40,000.

However, GBTC investors seem to be cooling on the profit-taking that had overwhelmed the fund as it has now seen a reduced outflow for the fifth consecutive day. BitMEX research revealed in an X (formerly Twitter) post that GBTC had seen an outflow of $192 million on January 29. 

That figure also represented GBTC’s lowest daily outflow yet and the first time it was seeing a daily outflow below $200 million. This recent trend of reduced outflows has evidently provided some form of relief to the Bitcoin market, seeing that Grayscale’s selling pressure has subsided. 

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin bulls also contributed to ensuring that Bitcoin didn’t stay down for too long. Data from IntoTheBlock showed that Bitcoin whales have increased their BTC holdings by 76,000 BTC since the start of this year. That suggests that there was a reasonable demand for the crypto token even when Grayscale continued to offload its BTC holdings. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

Other Factors Behind The Bitcoin Recovery 

NewsBTC recently reported how macroeconomic factors like the latest inflation data and the US debt being at an all-time high had contributed to Bitcoin’s recovery to $42,000. These factors are still playing out in Bitcoin’s current momentum, which has seen it rise above $43,000. 

Moreover, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 30 and 31, and the CME FedWatch Tool predicts that there is a 97.9% chance that interest rates remain the same. Rates holding steady, rather than a hike, are good for the market. 

This also provides a plausible explanation for the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price since investors are already positioning themselves in anticipation of the likely outcome of the Feds meeting. Another event these investors will be positioning themselves ahead for is the Bitcoin Halving.

Market intelligence platform Santiment recently revealed that Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges has continued to reduce, with BTC holders moving their tokens to cold storage. This move could well be in anticipation of the likely gains that Bitcoin is expected to see once the Halving event takes place. 

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Bitcoin Eyes $37,000: Bloomberg Analysts Give Timeline To Spot ETF Approval

Bitcoin has risen above $36,000 and is currently targeting $37,000 as Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have revived hopes that a Spot Bitcoin ETF could be approved this year. The analysts maintain their belief of a 90% chance that any of these funds get approved by January 2024. 

An Approval Order “Could” Occur This November

In a post shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Seyffart highlighted a new research note that he and Balchunas had just worked on. From their research, they noted that there is a “brief window” that allows the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve all 12 Spot Bitcoin ETF applications at once. 

This brief window (which opens up on November 9) will last for at least eight days, before which it is almost possible for the SEC to approve all applications at once until next year. The reason for their assertion is that the SEC cannot approve an application that is in the comment stage. It so happens that the comment stage of the last applications that the SEC delayed ends on November 8, which is why they highlighted the window that starts from November 9. 

As to why the window is only going to last for about eight days, the SEC is expected to decide on Hashdex and Franklin’s application on November 17, which could put both applicants in the comment stage. This is because it is expected that the SEC will opt to delay its decisions on those funds and ask the general public for comments on them. 

Meanwhile, the analysts noted that this window only applies to the SEC approving all 12 applications at once. They explain that “theoretically,” the Commission could decide on the other applications from now until January 10, 2024, even if it chooses to delay its decision on Hashdex and Franklin’s application on November 17. Whatever happens, they still believe that there is a 90% chance that any of these funds get approved by January 10 next year.

A Spot Bitcoin ETF Launch Isn’t So Straightforward

When quizzed about how long it will take for these funds to launch after approval, Balchunas mentioned in an X post that he guessed that the “19b-4s” applications would be approved in the “not so distant future.” Then it will further take a while for the SEC to approve the “S-1s” after which it “would likely be days till launch.”

Seyffart also echoed similar sentiments as he stated that there are “two paths” that need to be completed before an ETF launches. One is the 19b-4 approval, after which the division of Corporation Finance at the SEC will still need to sign off on the S-1s. However, there is no sign that any of that has been done yet. As such, it could take “weeks or even months” between approval and launch. 

Irrespective of that, Bitcoin has picked up on the possibility that Spot Bitcoin ETFs could be approved this month and has ridden on that wave to above $36,000. At the time of writing, the foremost cryptocurrency is trading at around $36,700, up over 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Spot ETF)

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Why This Fidelity Investments Director Believes Bitcoin Is ‘Exponential Gold’

The Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, Jurrien Timmer, recently provided insights into the potential of the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and went as far as labeling the crypto token as “exponential gold.”

A Glance At Bitcoin’s Adoption Curve

In a post released on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Timmer mentioned that Bitcoin’s scarcity and adoption curve potentially allow it to be a “high-powered hedge against monetary shenanigans,” likely alluding to the fact that the token’s features make it a great option to hedge against inflation. That is why he sees the token as “exponential gold.”

Bitcoin

He further elaborated on Bitcoin’s adoption curve, stating that it has so far followed a “typical S-curve shape,” which places it in good company with other major innovations that went through such an adoption journey. One of them is mobile phones, as Timmer noted that Bitcoin’s adoption curve in 2020 resembled that of mobile phones in the ‘80s and ‘90s. 
Bitcoin 1

Bitcoin, however, seems to have moved to another stage in the adoption curve, as Timmer stated that the “real-rate narrative changed from dovish in 2020 to hawkish in 2022.” He further suggested that Bitcoin has moved past the stage of a rapid rise as its adoption curve has flattened out. With this, Timmer believes that it now shares similarities with the adoption curve of the internet in the 2000s as the crypto token “has not made much progress since 2021.”

Bitcoin Volatility: Good Or Bad?

In a subsequent post, Timmer put Bitcoin’s volatility in perspective as he compared it with other asset classes. First, he shared a risk-reward chart for the pandemic and post-pandemic era ranging from 2020 to this year. The SPX seemed to provide the best risk-reward with close to 24% return. 
Fidelity Investments Director

Timmer then went on to share another chart, which included Bitcoin this time around. The foremost cryptocurrency notably stood out from the rest, as he mentioned that Bitcoin was “in a different universe,” with a 58% return. 

Bitcoin 3

Bitcoin’s high volatility seems to have contributed to such returns in no small way, as Timmer mentioned that the crypto token’s huge drawdowns also come with large gains. To drive home his point, he shared another chart that showed drawdowns and rallies, which various asset classes have experienced from their 2-year high and low, respectively. 

Fidelity Investments Director

The chart showed that Bitcoin experienced a 54% drawdown from its two-year high but is also up by 84% from its low in the same period. 

This is more impressive when one considers how other asset classes have fared in the same period as Timmer stated that Government bonds “can’t hold a candle” to Bitcoin’s risk-reward math.  

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Crypto)

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Why This 70-Year-Old Billionaire Wants To Own Bitcoin

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller recently gave his two cents on Bitcoin, acknowledging the asset’s growth and popularity over the past 17 years. While speaking at an interview with billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, Druckenmiller compared Bitcoin to gold, noting its evolution into a recognizable brand and investment vehicle. 

Druckenmiller admits he doesn’t actually own any BTC as of the moment, but he’s been closely following it and thinks it could be an attractive investment.

Druckenmiller Sees Bitcoin And Gold As Stores of Value

Bitcoin has long been hailed by financial analysts as the ideal asset for hedging against inflation and storing value. Some have dubbed the cryptocurrency as the 21st century’s digital gold because of its low correlation with stocks, and Druckenmiller doesn’t disagree.

Stanley Druckenmiller is the founder and former chairman of Duquesne Capital, and as a 70-year-old billionaire investor, he has seen a lot of financial trends come and go over the decades. But recently, he’s become fascinated with BTC. 

In the interview with Paul Tudor Jones, Druckenmiller stated that BTC has been particularly popular as a reputable brand because of its appeal to younger investors. The billionaire made this note while comparing Bitcoin to gold, the age-long store of value.

“I’m 70 years old, I own gold. I was surprised that Bitcoin got going, but it’s clear that the young people look at it as a store of value because it’s a lot easier to do stuff with. And 17 years, to me, it’s a brand.” Druckenmiller said.

It would seem the billionaire hasn’t invested in Bitcoin yet mainly because of the lack of clear regulation in the crypto industry. Druckenmiller said that he had previously held BTC. However, he sold them in 2022 because of restrictive policies imposed by central banks.

“I like gold because it’s a 5,000-year-old brand, but the young people have all the money,” Druckenmiller said. “So, I like them both. I don’t own any Bitcoin to be frank, but I should.”

Druckenmiller’s History With BTC

This isn’t the first time Druckenmiller has made positive comments about the crypto industry. Back in an interview in 2021, he likened Bitcoin to gold. He also predicted then that Ethereum could flip Bitcoin as smart contracts on the Ethereum blockchain spiked in popularity. In 2022, he said people could turn to crypto as more people lose faith in central banks.

Investors like Druckenmiller and Jones have always praised Bitcoin, but others like Warren Buffet have been pessimistic. Buffet slammed BTC in a CNBC interview in April this year, calling it a “gambling token.”

On the other hand, Bitcoin has been named as the best-performing asset class this year, outperforming stocks, bonds, commodities, and REITs. BTC is trading at $34,195 at the time of writing and is looking to break above a resistance at $35,000.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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19,197 BTC Makes Its Way Out Of Binance, Trigger For Bitcoin Recovery?

A massive amount of 19,197 BTC worth $652 million recently made its way out of Binance all at once, triggering a curious reaction from Bitcoin investors. The timing of the transfer is interesting, as Bitcoin is currently trading in a range and is looking to break the $35,000 resistance level. 

The big question is whether the whale behind the transfer plans to hold or sell, but recent price action points to the former.

Massive Amount Of BTC Leaves Binance

Recent data has shown Bitcoin trading volume on crypto exchanges recently hit its highest point since March, as trading activity increased in the overall crypto market. Whale activity, in particular, has grown exponentially. 

Whale transaction tracker Whale Alerts has uncovered various large Bitcoin transactions coming into and going out of cryptocurrency exchanges. Most of these transactions have been BTC exodus into cold or unknown wallets.

According to a post on social media platform X by @WhaleChart, there was a recent significant withdrawal of 19,197 BTC from Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange. This massive movement of digital currency has led analysts to speculate about the implications.

Some believe transactions like these signal that whales see bullish things ahead for Bitcoin and want to hold their assets using their own private keys. 

Now, while the whale tracker didn’t provide the transaction address for an in-depth analysis, the transfer was probably into a cold wallet. This is most likely the case as on-chain data points to an ongoing intense buying pressure from the bulls to drive up Bitcoin’s price.

Trigger For Bitcoin Recovery?

When large amounts of BTC are moved off exchanges, it shows that investors are holding their coins long-term. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $34,611, and its price action is forming a flag in a 4-hour chart timeframe. 

Using the Fib indicator, a breakout above $35,000 puts the next target at $38,000. A more convincing breakout might bring the price of Bitcoin to $40,000. On the other hand, the creation of a lower low below $33,500 would render the flag invalid, and we’d most likely witness a retracement from that point to $31,000. 

However, ongoing buying pressure points to a bullish breakout rather than a bearish breakout. According to Santiment data shared no X by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin whales have purchased over 30,000 bitcoins worth nearly $1 billion within the last five days.

Also, historical data points to an average price jump of 43% in November for Bitcoin. A similar jump in the coming month would see Bitcoin increase to around $48,000.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin Price Rally: Analyst Sets $45,000 Target And It’s Closer Than You Think

Bitcoin rallied above $35,000 on the back of the euphoria of the possible approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF. Although the rally seems to have cooled off, a particular crypto analyst’s prediction suggests that the bulls could enjoy total dominance soon enough in what will see the flagship cryptocurrency rise to $45,000. 

Bitcoin’s Incoming Phase Could See It Hit $45,000

In a post shared on their X (formerly Twitter) platform, crypto analyst CryptoCon shared his prediction on Bitcoin’s future trajectory. The analyst mentioned that Bitcoin was currently at the “Mid-Cycle phase 4,” which happens to be the period where the crypto token is heading closer to the “Cycle Mid-Top,” which currently positions Bitcoin to rise above $45,000. 

CryptoCon’s prediction seems to be made based on the Fibonacci trading strategy, as evident in the accompanying chart, which he shared in his post. The chart breaks down Bitcoin’s historical price data into four cycles, namely: Cycle 1 (2010-2014), Cycle 2 (2015-2018), Cycle 3 (2019-2022), and Cycle 4 (2023-2026). 

Bitcoin price

The Phases In These Cycles 

These cycles are further divided into five phases, which CryptoCon seemed to focus more on. These phases include Phase 1 (Cycle Lows), Phase 2 (Transition from Cycle Lows), Phase 3 (First Move out of the Lows), Phase 4 (Transition to Cycle Mid-Top), and Phase 5 ( Cycle Mid-Top).

CryptoCon noted that Bitcoin’s price usually hits phase 5 quickly once phase 2 is over (about two months after, according to the analyst), and if that is the case once again, then $45,000 could be soon. If that doesn’t happen, he foresees that Bitcoin could face resistance at the top of the transition, where it is currently priced at $36,368.

As to when all this could happen, he noted that October represents the first month after phase 2 ended. Therefore, the market could see the mid-top phase could happen as soon as November when Bitcoin will likely hit and rise above $45,000. 

Interestingly, CryptoCon’s prediction coincides with that of the crypto platform Matrixport, which estimates that Bitcoin could hit $45,000 between November this year and April 2024. In their report, Matrixport goes on to make a bolder claim that Bitcoin could hit $125,000 by December 2024.

Bitcoin price 2

Bitcoin Halving Or Institutional Adoption?

Different crypto analysts have continued to make predictions about Bitcoin’s future trajectory even as the Bitcoin Halving draws nearer. Some of these analysts have credited the event as the catalyst that will spark the massive surge in Bitcoin’s price. Others believe that the launch of a Spot Bitcoin ETF alongside institutional adoption is what will make Bitcoin hit new highs. 

Meanwhile, some contemplate that the market may already be priced in as to any impending approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF, as this is a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news.” If that is the case, many predict that we could see a decline when the ETFs launch due to massive sell-offs from traders and investors looking to realize their gains. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Economist Peter Schiff Raises Concerns About Spot Bitcoin ETFs

The possibility of spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the US SEC has caused excitement in the crypto space as investors gear up for a Bitcoin bullish trend. However, not all voices are convinced of the innovative changes of Bitcoin ETFs, as a prominent economist has cautioned about the potential risks associated with Bitcoin ETFs 

Schiff Says Bitcoin ETF Selling Risks Ahead

Chief Economist and Bitcoin critic, Peter Schiff has aired his concerns about Spot Bitcoin ETFs public in an X (formerly Twitter) post released on Monday. 

Schiff stated that the crypto market is presently filled with many speculators who are purchasing Bitcoin, in the hopes of capitalizing on the potential influx of investors following the possible approval of spot Bitcoin ETF by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

In his counter-narrative statement, Schiff revealed that there may be significantly more sellers than buyers of Bitcoin who are also eagerly waiting for Bitcoin ETFs to become a reality. This narrative may become an issue for many Bitcoin investors, because if Bitcoin holders decide to take advantage of the soaring prices and sell their reserved Bitcoin, it may lead to a sudden and sharp correction. 

“Speculators are buying Bitcoin now because they think other speculators are waiting to buy a Bitcoin ETF. They will soon discover that there are far more speculators waiting to sell than waiting to buy,” Schiff stated. 

The remarks made by Schiff have sparked opposing arguments and views within the crypto community. Many people see a positive impact on Bitcoin price pushing investors to buy more Bitcoin following the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

“The average number of people that own crypto globally is estimated to be around 420 million, which represents about 5% of the world’s population. Which can also mean 5% speculators waiting to sell and 95% speculators still haven’t entered,” crypto community member, Jeysuhn stated. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Spot Bitcoin ETF)

Lawyer Foresees ETF Approval By Year’s End

A pro-XRP lawyer and blockchain enthusiast, John E Deaton took to X on Monday to disclose his insights on the present situation concerning the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. SEC. 

Deaton predicted that the US SEC would approve spot Bitcoin ETFs before the end of 2023 or at least before the end of Q1 2024. The lawyer stated that the US SEC is currently compiling more information to put forward a different reason for denying Bitcoin ETFs. 

Presently, the official listing of Blackrock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust on Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC), an American post-trade financial service company has been one of the many reasons for the recent uptick in the price of Bitcoin.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading approximately at $34,424 after soaring past $35,000 at one point on Monday. The cryptocurrency has hit new monthly highs and may continue rising as Bitcoin ETF excitement builds. 

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Analyst Predicts Bullish Bitcoin Price Rally To $41,000, Here’s When

The Bitcoin price went over $30,000 over the weekend to reach its highest point since mid-July. As part of this recent rally, crypto trader Carl From The Moon has shared his Bitcoin analysis, predicting the cryptocurrency is poised for a massive 37% rally that could send the price up to $41,000.

Analyst Carl From The Moon Predicts Bitcoin Price Rally

Bitcoin has been subject to many price predictions in recent months, particularly as the industry awaits the approval of applications for a spot Bitcoin ETF. Subsequently, Carl Runefelt, also known as Carl From The Moon, based his long-term analysis on a bullish run if these applications were approved. 

In a new YouTube video, Carl points out that Bitcoin’s price action has just completed a diamond pattern, and a big breakout move to the upside is imminent in the next 30 days. 

Carl sees a few factors indicating Bitcoin is ready to soar. First, the crypto formed an upside movement at the beginning of the year. Subsequently, a diamond pattern began to form around April on the weekly timescale. Now, Bitcoin is in a prime position to clear the $31,000 resistance level, which would surge the cryptocurrency 37% from its current price of around $30,000 up to $41,000.

“What we can see now is a massive, massive diamond pattern on the weekly timeframe. And if Bitcoin breaks up like this, then we could see Bitcoin go all the way up to $41,000, which would be absolutely insane, right?” Carl said.

For now, Carl remains extremely bullish. Aside from his prediction, Carl also reflected on the current general sentiment of most Bitcoin traders for the near future. He does this by showing his leveraged long positions on different crypto exchanges while planning to add more when a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved. 

“Any day now, the ETF will come out, and then we will wish that we had these long positions open,” the crypto analyst said.

Carl isn’t the only analyst predicting high Bitcoin prices based on the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Several other experts also think Bitcoin will spike in the coming months, with some giving higher price targets than others. 

For example, crypto analyst Mags on social media platform X predicted a $70,000 price tag is foreseeable. A more optimistic prediction came from Ark Invest CEO Cathie Woods, who predicted $1.48 million for each Bitcoin based on increasing mainstream adoption.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $30,522, up by 9.86% in a 7-day timeframe. Most signs point to higher prices ahead, and many retail investors and heavyweights alike look to position themselves. Crypto whale transaction tracker Whale Alerts also recently revealed a massive 1,087 BTC withdrawal from crypto exchange Binance.US to a private wallet, suggesting there’s accumulation taking place.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Matrixport Says Bitcoin Is Headed For $56,000, Here’s The Driver

Crypto financial services platform Matrixport has predicted that an approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could push the price of Bitcoin between $42,000 and $56,000 per unit.

BTC, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has experienced notable increases in value throughout the current week, with the aim of surpassing the significant threshold of $30,000.  The cryptocurrency has been influenced by the operations of a spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) as investors continue to await approval to onboard institutional and mainstream exposure to the digital asset. 

Bitcoin Is Headed For $56,000

Matrixport conducted an analysis in its newly released report, examining the potential effects of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) on the cryptocurrency market, with a specific focus on BTC. Applications for these investment vehicles have gained momentum in recent months, with many now expecting a green light from the SEC.

The report draws a parallel close to the $120 billion precious metals ETF industry. If just 10–20% of investors in precious metal ETFs diversified their holdings into Bitcoin ETFs, it would result in an influx of $12b billion to $24 billion into these investment vehicles.

According to Matrixport, an approval, particularly a BlackRock Bitcoin ETF application, would see leading stablecoin USDT increase by as much as $50 billion in market cap. This, in turn, would lead to Bitcoin’s price rising to $56,000, with Tether acting as an intermediary facilitating the inflow of investments to BTC. 

“Our earlier reports analysed the 15,000-strong US registered investor advisor (RIA) community overseeing around $5 trillion. This group holds immense potential, and even a modest 1% allocation recommendation for Bitcoin would usher in around $50 billion in inflows,” the report said.

A lesser influx of $24 billion into Tether would see BTC rise to $42,000 in the short term. With BTC currently trading at $29,370 with a market cap of $625.03 billion, this represents an increase of 90% and 43% in both scenarios. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

What’s Next For BTC? Is A Rally Inevitable?

The price of Bitcoin has always reacted to news regarding spot Bitcoin ETFs. Just news of applications from BlackRock, Fidelity, and other investment companies sent BTC surging. Recently, rumors that the SEC had approved BlackRock’s ETF application sent the industry into a frenzy, and $74 million worth of BTC positions were liquidated in just a few minutes.

There’s no denying the amount of capital a spot Bitcoin ETF would unlock for the crypto industry. If approved, a spot Bitcoin ETF could unlock a massive inflow of capital from institutional investors, up to $17.7 trillion from financial institutions.

According to Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, spot ETFs could push BTC to $150,000 or maybe even further by the end of next year.

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Crypto Analyst Breaks Down The Factors Behind The Bitcoin Price Decline

As the bear market continues to linger, analysts have weighed in on the decline of the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and the crypto market, by extension. This time, another crypto analyst has explained what is influencing Bitcoin’s price decline. 

Factors Causing BTC’s Decline

Bitcoin notably dropped below the $27,000 level on October 12. Addressing this decline in a recent episode on the ‘Cheeky Crypto’ YouTube channel, Crypto analyst Nick noted that there wasn’t much going on in the news and the only thing that could have affected Bitcoin’s drop was the US inflation data, which was recently released with the CPI rising higher than expected. 

He then analyzed key on-chain metrics that could have affected Bitcoin’s price. According to data he pulled up from Cheeky Crypto’s site, there were 903,210 active addresses in the last twenty-four hours (he released the video on October 12).

The data also showed that 610,686 active addresses received Bitcoin during that period, and 560,331 active addresses sent Bitcoin during the same time frame, amounting to 265,000 transactions. What was, however, more interesting was the fact that only 23 million addresses held BTC out of the total 48.7 million addresses in existence.

He stated that these figures were important to give an insight into Bitcoin’s adoption rate as one could easily assume that almost all the Bitcoin addresses in existence held BTC. Meanwhile, less than half actually did. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

More Selling Pressure For Bitcoin

As to another factor that could be causing the decline, he noted that retail investors had been selling in the past few days. However, the silver lining, as Nick highlighted, is that this selloff suggests that institutional investors are accumulating once more, considering that they had once dumped their tokens on these retail investors. 

Additionally, 108 wallets hold over 10,000 BTC. These wallets, which Nick labeled as the “master manipulators” of BTC’s price, are also experiencing a similar sell-off trend as these wallets are down 8.47% in the last 180 days, which suggests that they are “aggressively” selling off.

From the chart he shared, one could see that the trend dates back to April 2023 (the peak of accumulation by these wallets) as they have begun to cool off and dump some of their holdings on the market. His analysis suggests that there could be a bigger picture regarding Bitcoin’s decline rather than any immediate factor. 

Despite this decline and the amount of liquidations that have occurred, Nick is still optimistic that Bitcoin could end this month in the green. October is reported to be one of the best-performing months for Bitcoin, with the crypto token ending October in the green for the last five years.

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Crypto Analyst Says Prepare For 100% Increase In Bitcoin Price As Historical Pattern Forms

Last week was a quiet one for Bitcoin, as the US dollar continues to gain ground in the foreign exchange market. Price action, in particular, has had Bitcoin breaking below the $26,500 support, indicating a potential risk of more losses below the $26,000 support in the near term. 

Some analysts, however, are still betting on a new Bitcoin bull run in the near future. According to crypto analyst “Titan of Crypto”, the Bitcoin price is poised for a huge surge over the next year that could see it double in value or more.  

Crypto Analyst Predicts 100% Bitcoin Price Increase

The crypto analyst, who goes by the X handle @Titan of Crypto, believes Bitcoin is poised for massive gains leading up to the next halving event in 2024 based on historical price patterns. 

According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s price action has been consistent with the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level in the months leading up to the three previous halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020.

The price chart shared by @Titan of Crypto shows Bitcoin’s price had reached the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level two months before the 2012 halving, two months before the 2016 halving, and 12 months before the 2020 halving. 

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. However, if history repeats itself, the price of Bitcoin could double from $26,130 to $48,700 based on the analyst’s prediction. A similar prediction from the analyst puts the next peak for Bitcoin’s current cycle at $108,000.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (BTC price prediction)

The Bitcoin halving, which cuts the block reward for miners in half, has been known to have a bullish effect on Bitcoin. A similar prediction by equity research firm Fundsrat to its clients predicted the next halving to have a bullish effect on the price of Bitcoin. While the next halving isn’t slated to occur until April 2024, analysts have predicted Bitcoin rising before then. 

Another analyst who goes by the X handle @100trillionUSD also predicted a series of events before the next halving, with a Bitcoin price rise being one of them.

This checkbox has been marked, as Bitcoin has risen from $18,000 since the beginning of the year. According to him, the 2024 halving should meet Bitcoin at a price greater than $32,000 and a bull market will push Bitcoin above $100,000. 

This bullish stance, however, is not shared by everyone. While the industry awaits the implication of the Fed’s recent decision on interest rates and its implication on the crypto market, analyst Nicholas Merten has warned of a potential $440 billion decline in overall crypto market capitalization. 

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Investment Firm Founder Has An Important Message For Bitcoin Holders

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci recently shared positive views on the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, which could provide some comfort to BTC holders as the bear market lingers. 

Scaramucci Says HODL Bitcoin

According to a report by Business Insider, the investment firm founder advised Bitcoin holders not to sell their BTC as they already made it through the winter. Interestingly, he mentioned that the worst of the bear market is over. Despite this being a bold assertion, there is evidence to suggest that he might be right.

There is the likelihood that Bitcoin has bottomed as the co-founder of Delphi Digital, Kevin Kelly once noted. Following past trends, BTC usually bottoms 18 months before the Bitcoin Halving (with the next coming in April 2024). As such, the worst part of this current market cycle might truly be over.

Scaramucci made this known while speaking at the Messari Mainnet conference in New York. He stated that he was still bullish on Bitcoin despite the cryptocurrency trading far below the highs it reached in 2021. Bitcoin peaked at $68,789 in November 2021 but has since declined by about 61%.

Meanwhile, he has singled out Wall Street’s adoption of BTC as one of the factors that will drive the cryptocurrency’s mainstream adoption. Wall Street giants, like the biggest asset manager, BlackRock, have applied to offer a Spot Bitcoin ETF, and he believes that once these firms have that in their “arsenal,” the Bitcoin market is going to widen as it is expected that institutional investors will be looking to invest in it.

Scaramucci also likened the potential growth of BTC to the Internet boom, as he stated that the younger generation would be “mainstreaming Bitcoin” the same way his generation mainstreamed the Internet (most likely about when there was massive growth in Internet adoption). 

Factors That Could Affect BTC’s Growth

Despite his optimism about Bitcoin’s future, Scaramucci noted certain macro factors that could hamper Bitcoin’s growth. These factors include the higher interest rates, negative sentiment around crypto, and the SEC Chief Gary Gensler with Gensler recently stating that there are so many “hucksters” and “fraudsters” in the crypto space.

However, his opinion on the higher interest rates seems to contrast with that of Crypto analyst Nicholas Merten, who stated that the Fed isn’t doing enough (regarding the interest rate hike) to keep inflation down. According to him, re-inflation is on the rise, and this could be one of the factors that could affect Bitcoin’s price going forward.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Anthony Scaramucci BTC)