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Bitcoin Enters ‘Danger Zone’ Post-Halving, Analyst Warns Of Potential Downside

Following the halving event on April 19, the price of Bitcoin has displayed a puzzling performance. BTC initially gained nearly 10% to trade as high as $67,020 on April 24. However, in the last two days,  the digital asset’s price has declined by 6.49%, falling below the $63,000 price mark. 

As expected, such negative performance has drawn attention from investors and market speculators. In particular, renowned analyst with X handle Rekt Capital has provided a theory on Bitcoin’s price fall and perhaps an insight into the future price movements of the crypto market leader.

BTC Potential Price Decline Ahead?

In an X post on April 26, Rekt Capital stated that Bitcoin has now entered the Post-Halving “Danger Zone.” The analyst described this phenomenon as a period during which Bitcoin has historically experienced price corrections after the halving event. Rekt Capital noted that in 2016, Bitcoin recorded these price retraces in the three weeks following the Halving event. During this time, the token’s price declined by 11%. 

The analyst postulates that Bitcoin is now in the Post-Halving “Danger Zone” of the current bull cycle following its price fall over the last two days. It is worth stating that if Bitcoin mirrors past price movement in this phase, the token could be heading for $60,000. However, Rekt Capital states that if the crypto market leader experiences such a fate, it will be within the next two weeks. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $62,672 with a decline of 2.44% in the last day. This price fall underscores BTC’s negative performance in the last month in which it has lost 11.16% of its market value. 

BitcoinBTC trades at $63,023 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSD chart on Tradingview.com

Bitcoin ETFs Record Minor Inflow; Net Outflows Hit $217 Million

According to data from SoSoValue, the Bitcoin Spot ETF market recorded net outflows to the tune of $217 million on April 25. Unsurprisingly, Grayscale’s GBTC accounted for $138 million of these figures as its total outflows now approach $17 billion.

Notably, for the first time ever, Fidelity’s FBTC and Valkyrie’s BRRR  produced net outflows estimated at $22 million and $20 million, respectively. Meanwhile, ARK Invest’s ARKB and Bitwise’s BITB also experienced a loss in investment on Thursday.

Interestingly, all other Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded zero net flows except Franklin Tempton’s EZBC, which saw a net inflow of $1.87 million. At the time of writing, the BTC spot ETFs have a combined value of $128 billion, reflecting a remarkable growth since their trading debut on January 11.

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Beyond Bitcoin ETFs: ‘There Are Other Players Controlling This Market’ – Says Analyst

Recent observations by Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, suggest that the movements in Bitcoin’s price are influenced by factors beyond just the flows of spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

According to Balchunas, who shared his insights on X, “bigger forces at work” shape the largest cryptocurrency’s valuation. This indicates that the correlation between spot ETF flows and Bitcoin’s price action is less direct than some assume.

The ETF Influence And Market Movements

This analysis emerges amid a period of significant financial activity for Grayscale, which has seen substantial outflows, described by Balchunas as experiencing a “second wind” of departures.

Yesterday, Grayscale reported outflows of $281.57 million, marking a notable decrease in its Bitcoin holdings by more than 40% since the inception of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11.

This scenario highlights a broader narrative within the cryptocurrency investment sphere, where the relationship between ETF activities and Bitcoin’s market performance is complex and multifaceted.

Despite the record outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC, Bitcoin’s market behavior has shown resilience. The cryptocurrency recently exceeded the $67,000 mark before experiencing a slight retracement, currently trading at a price of $66,106.

Bitcoin price chart on TradingView.com

This movement coincides with comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which seemingly spurred a rally across various risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Powell’s reassurances regarding the outlook on rate cuts prompted a slight recovery in Bitcoin’s price, demonstrating how external economic factors and sentiments can impact cryptocurrency markets. It is worth noting that Bitcoin traded below $65,000 before the announcement.

On-Chain Insights And Bitcoin Future Prospects

Further deepening the analysis, Charles Edwards, a crypto analyst, recently suggested that pullbacks are common in Bitcoin’s bull runs, with corrections of around 30% within the realm of possibility.

In related news, data from the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant has recently indicated a nearly 40% reduction in Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges over the past four years.

This trend points towards a bullish sentiment within the Bitcoin ecosystem, suggesting that investors are inclined to hold onto their assets in anticipation of future value increases.

Moreover, CryptoQuant’s data reveals that Bitcoin’s demand has consistently outstripped its supply since 2020, a trend that supports the asset’s value on the premise that scarcity enhances perceived value.

This dynamic is expected to intensify following the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which will reduce the miners’ supply by half, potentially leading to further increases in Bitcoin’s price.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Profit-Taking Panic, Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Sell Off – What’s Next For BTC?

Recent on-chain data highlighted a significant trend: a wave of profit-taking by investors who have held Bitcoin (BTC) for less than five months.

As detailed by CryptoQuant’s latest data, this phenomenon is not just a random market movement but an echo of patterns observed at the zeniths of previous bull markets.

Profit-Taking Among Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Signals Market Shift

According to CryptoQuant, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a key metric in evaluating the profit and loss of Bitcoin transactions over a specific period, showcases a pronounced uptick indicative of widespread profit realization.

This tendency among short-term holders to liquidate their holdings for gains parallels historical market peaks and suggests a critical juncture for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Short Term Holder metric.

Crypto Dan, a seasoned market analyst, emphasized the significance of this trend, stating, “This movement is something that only happens once every few years,” highlighting the uniqueness and possible consequences of the present market trends.

New Market Forces At Play: ETFs Inflow Set To Rebalance The Equation

While the SOPR metric might signal alarm bells reminiscent of past bull market peaks, the crypto landscape is underpinned by factors that could mitigate the traditional outcomes of such profit-taking.

Among these is the recent introduction of a BTC spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). This new avenue for Bitcoin investment introduces a complex layer to the market’s dynamics, potentially cushioning any adverse effects of short-term holders’ profit-taking activities.

Dan concluded by noting:

But considering the BTC spot ETF and potential additional inflows from institutions and individuals, it is difficult to judge it as simply a signal of the peak of a bull market. After a short-term correction period, it’s very likely that we will see a strong further bull in 2024.

CoinShares Head of Research, James Butterfill, provides a further layer of analysis, suggesting an imminent “positive demand shock” for Bitcoin. According to Butterfill, the delay in making spot Bitcoin ETFs accessible to the Registered Investment Advisors (RIA) market — a sector managing around $50 trillion in assets — is set to end.

With RIAs requiring three months of trading data before including new ETFs in their portfolios, the market is on the cusp of witnessing a substantial influx of new investments into Bitcoin. “If 10% of RIAs chose to invest 1% of their portfolios, this could result in approximately $50 billion in additional inflows,” Butterfill elaborated, highlighting the scale of potential market impact.

Moreover, the current supply-demand dynamics within the Bitcoin market are skewed towards increasing demand against decreasing supply.

The daily demand for BTC, fueled by the trade of spot BTC ETFs and the average production of new coins, underscores a growing discrepancy that ETF issuers are filling by tapping into the secondary market.

This scenario is evidenced by a dramatic decrease in OTC desk coin holdings, a direct consequence of ETF-driven demand, according to Butterfill.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Spot ETF Inflows Eye New Record As BTC Price Touches $57,000

Bitcoin Spot ETFs are gunning for a new record after an incredible start to the new week. The price of BTC has risen 8% in the last day, and this has caused euphoria in the market. There could be a number of factors behind this; however, institutional investors seem to be playing a big role as daily inflows continue to rise.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Cross $400 Million

According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, the Spot BTC ETF inflows are not slowing down. In a screenshot shared by the analyst on Tuesday, Seyffart reveals that inflows into Spot BTC ETFs climbed above $400 million.

The image shows that the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund is leading the charge with $243.3 million in inflows, which accounts for more than 50% of the total inflow. The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF follows behind with significant inflows of $130.6 million. The third-largest inflow to a single fund for the day was recorded in the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, which saw $37.2 million in inflows.

Spot Bitcoin ETF

Other funds, including the Franklin Bitcoin ETF, VanEck Bitcoin Trust, and the WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund, all saw minor inflows of $7.9 million, $6.2 million, and $0.9 million, respectively. In total, the inflows to all six funds came out to $426 million.

However, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continues to bleed during this time, with outflows of $22.4 million in the 24-hour period. This brought the total net flows to $403.6 million. At the same time, funds such as the iShares Bitcoin Trust, the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF, and The Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund all saw negligible inflows during this time frame.

Gunning For A New Record

The inflows into the Bitcoin Spot ETFs over the last day are a testament to the demand that these products are getting from the market. With institutional investors gaining more exposure to BitBTCcoin, demand is expected to rise, especially as the BTC price continues to do well.

The inflow volumes, while not the largest single-day inflows so far, are significant when measured up to others. For example, Seyffart points out that the daily record was from the first day of trading when inflows climbed as high as $655 million. The second-largest single-day net flow was then recorded earlier in the month on February 13 with $631 million. “A big day from $IBIT could push us beyond that Day 1 record,” Seyffart declared.

At the time of writing, the BTC price is experiencing a retracement after reaching a new 2-year high of $57,000. It has seen 8.58% gains in the last 24 hours to trade at $55.900, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin Spot ETF Jitters Subside: Grayscale Outflows Drop To New Lows

Outflows from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) seem to be slowing down, as shown by the trading activity of Bitcoin ETFs. This comes as investor anxiety over Grayscale’s Spot ETF seems to finally be subsiding, with the entire ETF cohort continuing to attract huge trading volumes and rapid growth in assets under management. As a result, the GBTC saw daily outflows drop steadily over the course of the week to just $44.2 million on Friday, the lowest since spot Bitcoin ETFs went live.

Outflows Drop As Grayscale’s BTC ETF Stabilizes

After several weeks of elevated outflows totaling over $7.44 billion, investors pulled just $436.2 million of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust last week. Notably, the lowest daily outflow of $44.2 million came on the last day of the week.

Grayscale’s GBTC is undoubtedly the biggest Bitcoin ETF among its cohort. This is because GBTC was launched in 2013 as a Bitcoin trust available only in OTC markets., allowing it to grow over the years as it was the only go-to for investors looking to dive into the crypto industry.

However, after a lengthy regulatory procedure, the SEC finally approved GBTC’s conversion into a Spot Bitcoin ETF. Consequently, Grayscale’s new Bitcoin ETF went live on January 11, along with nine other recently approved ETFs. 

GBTC held around $27 billion worth of BTC assets when it first began trading as an exchange-traded fund (ETF). Surprisingly, Grayscale’s conversion into an ETF came along with a vast amount of withdrawals from investors, and by the end of January, GBTC had witnessed $5.55 billion worth of withdrawals. 

Many analysts have attributed Grayscale’s high management fees (1.5%) to the outflows. During this period, other Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract new money. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) now has over $6.64 billion worth of BTC in its ETF, followed by the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) with $4.73 billion.

What’s Next For Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF?

While last week’s outflow data is an encouraging sign for Grayscale and the wider ETF market, outflows could continue in the coming weeks. Bankrupt crypto lending firm Genesis recently received court approval to sell its $1.3 billion worth of GBTC in order to repay its creditors. 

The prospect of a liquidation of such gravity has propelled concerns amongst investors of the potential downward implications on the price of BTC. However, many others remain optimistic. According to a report by crypto exchange Coinbase, full liquidation would have a neutral impact on the market as the majority of funds are expected to remain in the crypto ecosystem.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $51,300, while Grayscale’s GBTC now had $22.7 billion worth of assets under management.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin Forecast: Analyst Predicts $58,000 Surge Before Halving, But There’s A Catch

As Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum, renowned analyst Michaël van de Poppe has offered an optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory. Van de Poppe highlights the “massive” momentum behind Bitcoin, signalling a bullish trend in the market. 

The analyst anticipates Bitcoin embarking on a “final surge” towards the $54,000 to $58,000 range, marking the culmination of the current pre-halving rally. However, there’s a catch: Van de Poppe predicts a short-term correction before this “final push.”

Analyst Insights And Market Trends

Van de Poppe’s forecast comes amid Bitcoin’s current price hovering around the $52,000 mark, reflecting a 0.5% increase over the past 24 hours. This upward trajectory builds upon a week-long bullish trend, propelling Bitcoin’s market capitalization to $1.02 trillion.

However, Van de Poppe isn’t the sole analyst expressing bullish sentiments towards Bitcoin. Another cryptocurrency analyst with the name ‘James CryptoGuru’ on X has also issued a bullish prediction, setting a target of $61,000 for Bitcoin’s price in the near future.

CryptoGuru’s analysis points to various chart setups and indicators supporting Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. The analyst notes an increase in trading volume across the daily candles on the BTC/USD chart. This observation is coupled with the identification of notable bullish signals, particularly the formation of a hammer candle.

For context, a hammer candlestick pattern typically appears during a downtrend and signals a potential reversal in the price of an asset. It is characterized by a small body near the top of the candlestick with a long lower shadow, resembling a hammer.

This formation suggests that sellers drove the price lower during the trading session, but buyers were able to push the price back up, indicating strength in the market. In the case of Bitcoin, CryptoGuru suggest that the Bitcoin market is charged up for a rally given the sightings of hammer candle.

Additionally, CryptoGuru identifies a resistance level around $52,000 on the 4-hour chart, indicating a consolidation phase and the formation of a bullish signal known as a “bull flag.”

Factors Driving Bitcoin Rally And Optimistic Predictions

The bullish forecasts for Bitcoin are buoyed by several factors, including the upcoming Bitcoin halving event scheduled for April. The BTC halving, a programmed reduction in the rate at which new BTC are created, typically results in decreased supply and historically has led to price appreciation.

Furthermore, heightened demand for Bitcoin in the wake of spot ETF approval has fuelled optimism among investors. Last week, alone, Coinshares saw a record inflows totalling $2.45 billion into crypto funds globally, with US Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dominating the inflows.

Bitcoin (BTC)( price chart on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Coinbase Custody Accounts For 90% Of All Bitcoin ETFs – Details

Coinbase Custody reportedly now holds over 90% of all Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. This development was revealed by the crypto exchange’s CEO, Brian Armstrong, while appraising the company’s performance in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023.

Coinbase Emerges As Major Player In Bitcoin ETF Market

In an X post on February 16, Brian Armstrong shared specific highlights of Coinbase’s achievement in Q4 2023. In particular, He noted that the American crypto exchange has played a crucial part in facilitating the adoption of cryptocurrencies by traditional financial firms (TradFi).

A major part of this adoption is the Bitcoin ETF market which is worth $37 billion, ranking as the second largest commodity ETF market after Gold. Armstrong noted that Coinbase has played a significant role in this development, serving as custodian for 90% of the investment funds in the Bitcoin ETF market.

For context, a custodian is a regulated financial institution that holds customers’ securities and assets, providing protection against any form of loss or theft. Notably, Coinbase is listed as the custodian for eight of the 11 recently launched Bitcoin spot ETFs. These include BlackRock’s IBIT, Ark Invest’s ARKB, Bitwise’s BITB, and Grayscale’s GBTC, among others.

These statistics indicate that Coinbase is well placed to record larger milestones as the top traditional financial institutions are tipped to finally invest in Bitcoin ETFs, especially upon the proven success and stability of the Bitcoin spot ETFs.

According to Armstrong, other notable Coinbase achievements in Q4 2024 include the launch of the exchange’s international wing, and the layer-2 blockchain solution Base. The crypto exchange also claimed to slash its annual costs by 45% while generating a total income of $3.1 billion.

Looking Forward To 2024

In retrospect to 2024, Armstrong stated that Coinbase will maintain focus on its international expansion and new derivatives products. In addition, they will aim to promote the adoption of crypto payments by transforming the Coinbase wallet into a super app. 

Finally, the exchange CEO states that Coinbase will continue to advocate for a clear regulatory framework applicable to the crypto space. Armstrong says that Coinbase is committed to this course and is willing to explore all means, including legal processes as well as engaging the federal legislators.

CoinbaseCOIN trading at $180.28 on the trading chart | Source: COIN chart on Tradingview.com

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Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Consolidation, Eyes Long-Term Price Target Of $500,000

In the last day, Bitcoin (BTC) has notched up minor gains to the tune of 0.7%, pushing its market price above the $42,000 mark. Investors in the world’s leading cryptocurrency are likely encouraged by this recent price gain, following the 20% price decline that trailed the highly anticipated approval of the Bitcoin spot ETFs earlier in January. 

Amidst many speculations on BTC’s next movement, popular crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has released a prediction that indicates Bitcoin’s movement may be restricted for the coming months. Albeit, he projects a massive price surge in future years.

Bitcoin Potential Consolidation Paves The Way For Altcoin Boom

In a post on X on January 27, van de Poppe shared an intriguing forecast on Bitcoin’s price trajectory, as he predicted the digital asset to soon enter a consolidation state.  According to the crypto analyst, Bitcoin is likely to trade between $37,000 – $48,000 for the next few months. If this prediction holds true, BTC could maintain its current upward trajectory and head for the $48,000 zone before experiencing any major pullback. 

Interestingly, van de Poppe also stated that a possible Bitcoin consolidation would lead to altcoins recording significant market gains. In a previous prediction, the crypto enthusiast shared a similar belief explaining that BTC is gradually approaching its peak market dominance with the Bitcoin halving event just a few months away. 

Based on historical data from 2016 and 2020, when BTC attains its highest level of market dominance, the altcoins embark on a bullish run and even outperform the market leader. Michaël van de Poppe is projecting a similar occurrence in the coming months, accompanied by a BTC consolidation phase.

Analyst Remains Optimistic About Long-Term ETF Impact On BTC

In the same post on X on January 27, de Poppe also commented on the potential effects of the Bitcoin spot ETF on the asset’s price. The analyst expressed much confidence in the newly introduced exchange-traded products  (ETP) stating they had the potential to spur BTC to a market price of $300,000 to $500,000 in the coming years.

His prediction comes as the Bitcoin spot ETF market is currently witnessing a decline in outflows following a rather perturbing start which saw over $4.786 billion exit the novel market within its first 10 trading days. 

On January 26 (trading 11), the BTC spot ETF recorded a new minimum outflow of $255.1 million, according to data from BitMEX Research. At the time of writing, total net flows in the ETF market stand at $759.4 million with Bitcoin trading at $42,088.  If de Poppe’s forecast proves true, investors in both markets could record massive profits in the coming years.
Bitcoin

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BlackRock’s IBIT Maintains Lead In BitcoETF Market, Crosses $2 Billion In Inflows

According to data from BitMEX Research, BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF – IBIT –  has now set a new record, achieving a total net inflow of $2 billion. This feat allows IBIT to maintain its position as the best-performing fund of the bunch, following the approval of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission on January 10.

BlackRock’s IBIT Maintains Dominance As Total Net Flows Reach $744.6 Million

On January 25, which marked the tenth trading day of the Bitcoin spot ETF market, BlackRock’s IBIT produced an unsurprising positive performance, notching $170.7 million in inflows. This gain allowed the investment fund to move into an exclusive list as the first Bitcoin spot ETF to amass $2 billion in market cap.

Commenting on this feat, Bloomberg analyst James Seyfarrt has credited the recent rise in BTC’s price as a major contributing factor. He said:

Yes, the #Bitcoin price has pushed $IBIT‘s assets beyond $2 billion. This plus likely new flows today should mean it will be above $2 billion at close.

Following the trading debut of BTC spot ETFs on January 11, IBIT quickly emerged as an investor’s favorite, recording the highest individual daily inflows of the market at $386 million on January 12. BlackRock’s BTC spot ETF has managed to retain this investors’ attention over the first two trading weeks, evidenced by its consistent positive performances, which has culminated in a total flow of $2.086 billion.

IBIT’s performance is closely followed by Fidelity’s FBTC, which recorded $101 million in inflows on January 25, moving its total flows to $1.825 billion. Meanwhile, other Bitcoin spot ETFs with notable performances include Bitwise’s BITB and Ark Invest’s ARKB, both of which boast individual cumulative AUMs of over half a billion dollars.

In other news, the outflows in Grayscale’s GBTC remain a constant trend; however, there has been a notable decline in selling volume over the last few days. At the time of writing, GBTC’s total outflow is valued at $4.786 billion. In comparison with a cumulative inflow of $5.53 billion, total flows in the Bitcoin spot ETF market stand at $744.6 million. 

Bitcoin Price Overview

At press time, Bitcoin is currently trading at $41,725.19 following a 4.52% price gain in the past day, according to data from CoinMarketCap. This recent uptick is quite significant, considering the asset’s previous bearish form, marked by a 20% decline over the last two weeks which resulted in BTC’s dipping below $39,000. 

Bitcoin’s price has been negatively affected by GBTC’s massive outflows; however, as the selling pressure appears to be decreasing, coupled with consistent positive performances of other ETFs, notably BlackRock’s IBIT, that crypto market leader could soon pull off a market recovery.

BlackRock’s IBIT

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Bitcoin Capitulation: Holders Flee BTC As Post-ETF Disappointment Hits

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin investors have been clearing out their wallets recently as the asset continues to be disappointing in this post-ETF era.

Bitcoin Small Wallets Have Been Displaying Signs Of Capitulation

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, the number of small BTC wallets has seen a sharp decline during the last few days. The indicator of relevance here is the “Supply Distribution,” which tells us about the amount of wallets that currently belong to the different holder groups on the Bitcoin network.

The addresses are divided into these groups based on the number of coins they are carrying in their balance right now. A wallet carrying 0.5 BTC, for instance, would belong inside the 0 to 1 BTC cohort.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Supply Distribution for three different Bitcoin wallet groups over the last few months:

Bitcoin Supply Distribution

The first wallet group on the chart is the “0 to 1” coins cohort. The owners of such small wallets are usually the retail investors, popularly known as the “shrimps.”

From the graph, it’s visible that these small hands have seen the total number of their wallets go down in the last few days. To be more specific, around 487,300 shrimps have cleared out their wallets in this selloff, a decline of almost 1%.

“History tells us that this is typically a sign of capitulation, which can lead to a market price bounce until smaller traders begin to get optimistic toward crypto as an investment vehicle once again,” explains the analytics firm.

“The disappointment of market performances since the 11 ETF approvals over 2 weeks ago is largely attributed as the cause for these wallet liquidations,” Santiment adds.

The spot ETFs have been one of the main topics in the cryptocurrency community during the last few months, and the price rally in Bitcoin was in part driven by anticipation around them. Unlike what some investors had imagined, though, the market sold at the news, and BTC has been unable to recover so far.

The shrimps aren’t the only ones that have capitulated recently, though, as the 1-1,000 coins group has seen a decline of 4,752 wallets since January 5th, while the 1,000+ BTC entities have shed 27 addresses since December 27.

The former group includes the mid-sized Bitcoin holder groups like the “sharks,” while the latter cohort includes the largest of the hands on the network: the “whales.”

Clearly, however, these larger entities had started selling ahead of the spot ETF approvals, while the shrimps had still been optimistic about the event. And interestingly, since the smallholders have started their latest capitulation, the whales have, in fact, seen some growth in their addresses.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has seen some sharp recovery push in the past day as the asset’s price has now bounced back to the $40,800 mark.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Ethereum Is The Biggest Winner In Post-ETF Approval Market: Glassnode

While Bitcoin has struggled since the much-anticipated spot ETFs have gone live, Ethereum has emerged as a winner in the sector.

Ethereum Has Done Better Against Both Bitcoin And Altcoins Recently

In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed how Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the altcoins have performed against each other recently.

The cryptocurrency sector as a whole has enjoyed a net rise since BlackRock first filed for its exchange-traded fund (ETF) last year.

Ethereum Vs Bitcoin Vs Altcoins

This period was filled with speculation about whether the various spot ETFs would go through. Still, starting mid-October, the assets rose as confidence that approval would be achieved went up.

“Bitcoin’s market cap has increased by +68.8% since BlackRock first filed for their ETF, and the aggregate Altcoin Market Cap followed suit, rising by +68.9%,” reads the report. “However, Ethereum has seen more sluggish relative momentum, underperforming the wider altcoin space by -17%.”

Next, Glassnode has talked about the “market cap dominance” of these asset classes, which measures the percentage share they occupy in the total valuation of the cryptocurrency sector.

Ethereum Market Cap Dominance

Since the FTX collapse in November 2022, Bitcoin’s market cap dominance has notably risen. However, BTC hasn’t taken a share of Ethereum as the second-largest coin’s dominance has moved mostly sideways in this period. Instead, the altcoins and stablecoins are the ones who have lost dominance to Bitcoin.

The BTC spot ETFs finally gained approval earlier this month, but the event turned out to be a sell-the-news one for the asset. In this post-ETF era, though, a new narrative has appeared in the sector in the form of the ETH spot ETFs.

“Shortly after the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, several issuers have filed or suggested a willingness to advocate for a spot ETF for Ethereum,” notes Glassnode. “Although obtaining approval for an ETH-based ETF might be more challenging due to the SEC possibly considering Ether as more of an investment contract, the markets appeared to express optimism.”

As the chart below shows, Ethereum’s dominance against Bitcoin has gone up.

Ethereum And Bitcoin

As the graph shows, ETH’s market cap dominance versus BTC has increased by about 2.9% since the latter’s spot ETFs gained approval from the US SEC.

The altcoin side of the sector has seen a net rise in this period as well, but the alts haven’t been able to keep up with ETH, as the latter has generally outperformed them.

Ethereum And Altcoins

In total, Ethereum has earned 4.2% in global dominance. “This makes ETH the biggest winner in the post-ETF approval market movements,” explains the analytics firm.

ETH Price

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at around $2,230, up 1% in the last 24 hours.

Ethereum Price Chart

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Bitcoin Spot ETFs Approved After 14 Years- The Journey So Far

The year 2024 marks the dawn of a new era, not just for technology but for finance, as a major victory was achieved for Bitcoin Spot ETFs (Exchang-Traded Funds). It’s now the era where the past will be appreciated for its foresight and doggedness. 

When the pioneer cryptocurrency and digital currency, Bitcoin launched in January 2009, it was nothing like a real-world asset or of an ‘agreed’ digital value, but an almost neglected bag of gold as it faced enough rejection from all phases. Even with Satoshi’s Whitepaper, Bitcoin wasn’t given a cordial welcome in the world of finance.

However, for all its promise, BTC remained shrouded in an air of mystery and skepticism. It took several years for Bitcoin to cement its value in the world of technology, finance, and the digital economy, assuming a giant role amidst many other cryptocurrencies. 

However, On January 10, 2024, the SEC, in its official filing, approves all 11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs. This long-awaited green light from the US SEC marked a watershed moment, not just for Bitcoin, but for the entire cryptocurrency industry. 

The 14-year journey to this point was arduous and paved with skepticism; regulatory hurdles loomed large, with the SEC citing concerns about market manipulation and investor protection as justification for repeated rejections. Attempts like Bitcoin futures ETFs offered limited exposure, failing to capture the true essence of a spot ETF’s direct price tracking. 

Bitcoin Spot ETF Explained

The recent approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs has stirred excitement across the financial landscape. But what exactly are these instruments, and what impact will they have on the future of BTC and, more broadly, on the investment landscape?

Bitcoin “Spot” ETFs (exchange-traded funds), unlike their futures-based counterparts, don’t track the price of Bitcoin futures contracts. Instead, they take a more direct approach, holding the underlying asset – Bitcoin itself – in secure digital custodians. 

This eliminates the potential for “basis risk,” a phenomenon where futures prices deviate from the actual cash price of Bitcoin. Simply put, Spot ETFs offer a more straightforward and transparent way to gain exposure to BTC’s price movements, akin to traditional gold-backed ETFs.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs function similarly to their traditional counterparts, such as those tracking stock market indices. They pool investor capital, purchasing Bitcoin and holding it securely. Each share of the ETF represents a fractional ownership of the pooled Bitcoin, allowing investors to participate in the market without directly holding or managing the cryptocurrency themselves. This eliminates technical complexities and potential security risks, particularly for those with limited crypto experience, potentially broadening the base of Bitcoin investors. 

The Genesis Of Bitcoin ETFs (Early Days and Conceptualization – 2013-2017)

The earliest sparks of a Bitcoin ETF concept date back to 2013, when the Winklevoss twins first proposed their Gemini ETF. Winklevoss twins, Cameron and Tyler, both tech entrepreneurs with a vision in 2013, submitted the first application for a Bitcoin ETF, the Gemini ETF, sparking the decade-long journey to regulatory approval. 

This audacious proposal was outrightly rejected by the SEC during the tenure of its former chairman, Jay Clayton, who later resigned in 2020 and became a supporter of cryptocurrency. Interestingly, Clayton is now actively involved in crypto regulations when he joined the advisory board of Fireblocks, a crypto custody platform.

The following years were a crucible of innovation and uncertainty. While Bitcoin’s market capitalization surged, attracting both fervent supporters and cautious observers, the SEC remained hesitant. The regulator’s concerns about market manipulation, price volatility, and the nascent state of blockchain technology were cited as justifications for repeated rejections of subsequent ETF proposals, including Grayscale’s attempt to convert its Bitcoin Investment Trust into a spot ETF.

Yet, amidst the rejections, there were flickers of progress. Technological advancements improved blockchain security and custody solutions, addressing initial concerns about vulnerability and potential wash trading. The global adoption of Bitcoin, particularly in Canada with its approval of Spot ETFs in 2021, served as a compelling case study for increased accessibility and market stability.

This period also saw the SEC’s stance slowly evolve. The appointment of Gary Gensler as SEC Chair in 2021 brought a newfound openness to dialogue and exploration of potential regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies. The approval of the first US-listed futures-based bitcoin ETF in October 2021, despite its limitations, offered a glimpse of what could be.

The Turning Point: A Decade Of Persistence Pays Off (2018-2023)

While the 2017-2018 crypto boom and subsequent crash sent shockwaves through the industry, it also served as a crucible, forging resilience and fueling a renewed focus on compliance and innovation. Industry figures like Grayscale, undeterred by previous rejections, continued to refine their proposals, incorporating crucial safeguards and addressing regulatory concerns.

This relentless pursuit of approval finally yielded results in 2023. In May, Cathie Wood’s ARK Investments filed for a spot bitcoin ETF, setting a definitive deadline for the SEC’s decision. 

Then, in June, BlackRock’s entry into the arena with its own Spot Bitcoin ETF application sent ripples of excitement through the financial world. This move by a traditional financial giant signalled a crucial shift in sentiment, demonstrating growing institutional confidence in BTC’s potential.

The months that followed were a whirlwind of activity. A flurry of applications from firms like Fidelity and Invesco poured in, fueled by the momentum of BlackRock’s move and the prospect of imminent approval. In August, a pivotal legal victory for Grayscale in the D.C. Circuit Court further strengthened the case for spot ETFs, forcing the SEC to re-examine its previous rejections.

Finally, the SEC, in a historic decision, greenlighted 11 spot bitcoin ETF proposals, including those from BlackRock, Fidelity, and VanEck. This moment marked the culmination of a decade-long struggle, signifying the mainstream acceptance of investor participation in the cryptocurrency space.

Ripples Across The Crypto Landscape: Implications Of Bitcoin Spot ETFs (2024)

The arrival of spot ETFs has cast a wide net, sending ripples across various spheres of the financial world. There are a lot of potentials and challenges presented by spot ETFs, vital impact on market stability, institutional adoption, and regulatory oversight. There are positive predictions that the Bitcoin market cap could rise above $1 Trillion after the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

Let’s contemplate the broader significance of this pivotal moment, what it means for the future of finance, and its relationship between technology and traditional financial systems here.

Investor Crossroads

For retail investors, Spot ETFs offer a convenient and familiar way to participate in the Bitcoin market without directly holding the cryptocurrency. This opens the door to broader adoption and increased liquidity, potentially leading to smoother price discovery and reduced volatility. The influential American magazine, Forbes predicted the BTC price will trade as high as $80,000 as a result of Bitcoin Spot ETFs’ approval. 

The year 2024 is also shaping up to be a good one, if not one of the best seasons for cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin, as it’s the season for Bitcoin halving, which will have another mega impact on the crypto industry. 

However, the inherent risks of Bitcoin, including price fluctuations and potential exposure to fraud, must not be underplayed. Investors should approach spot ETFs with cautious optimism, ensuring a proper understanding of the technology, market dynamics, and associated risks before venturing in.

Institutional Embrace Bitcoin

The arrival of spot ETFs marks a significant step towards institutional acceptance of Bitcoin. The involvement of established financial institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity lends credibility to the cryptocurrency and paves the way for further integration with traditional financial products and services.

Concerns remain about the impact of institutional involvement on market manipulation and potential conflicts of interest. However, regulatory oversight and robust compliance frameworks will be crucial in ensuring a fair and transparent market for all participants.

Market Redefined

Spot ETFs could potentially lead to greater market stability by introducing institutional investors and their risk management expertise. This could mitigate some of the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market, attracting a wider range of investors and fostering sustainable growth.

The SEC’s approval represents a cautious acceptance, not a blank check. Further regulatory clarity and potential adaptation of existing frameworks might be required to effectively address the unique challenges posed by the integration of cryptocurrencies into mainstream financial systems.

Beyond Bitcoin

Spot ETFs could act as a gateway for investors to explore the broader crypto landscape. Their familiarity and ease of access might encourage exploration of other promising blockchain-based projects, accelerating the overall growth and development of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

The success of spot ETFs will hinge on the continued evolution of blockchain technology and associated infrastructure. Scalability, security, and user experience will remain key areas of focus for ensuring the smooth functioning and widespread adoption of crypto-based financial products.

The 11 Spot Bitcoin ETFs products (with their ticker symbols) approved  on January 10, 2024, are:

  • Blackrock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)
  • ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB)
  • WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund (BTCW)
  • Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO)
  • Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB)
  • VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL)
  • Franklin Bitcoin ETF (EZBC)
  • Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC)
  • Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BRRR)
  • Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)
  • Hashdex Bitcoin ETF (DEFI)

Conclusion

The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs is a watershed moment, not just for the cryptocurrency itself, but for the entire financial landscape. It marks a new chapter in the saga of Bitcoin, one where its disruptive potential can be harnessed within the framework of established financial systems.

Also, this path forward is paved with both opportunities and challenges. Navigating regulations and addressing investor risk concerns are important to ensure seamless integration with traditional financial systems and regulatory bodies, which will be crucial in determining the ultimate success of this technological leap.

Final Thoughts

The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs is not merely a regulatory green light; it’s a resounding declaration of Bitcoin’s arrival on the main stage of finance.

Related Reading: Celestia Network: How To Stake TIA And Position For 5-Figure Airdrops

However, the journey is far from over. This approval is a milestone, not a destination. As we stand at this turning point, it’s important to remember the spirit of defiance that birthed BTC. It was born from a desire for autonomy, for freedom from centralised control, and for a more equitable financial system. 

While ETFs offer a bridge between this decentralized world and the established financial order, it’s crucial not to lose sight of these core principles.

BTC price chart from Tradingview.com (Spot Bitcoin ETFs)

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Fidelity Bitcoin Spot ETF Records $1 Billion In Net Inflows – Details

Data from the trading analytics platform BitMEX Research reveals that Fidelity’s Bitcoin spot ETF – FBTC – has now witnessed a total inflow of over $1 billion. This development comes as BTC attempts to rebound from its recent dip over the last two weeks with a 1.56% gain in the past day, based on data from CoinMarketCap.  

Fidelity Joins BlackRock On Exclusive $1-B List, As Grayscale’s ETF Continues To Bleed

Following the official launch of Bitcoin spot ETF trading on January 11, Fidelity has now become the second asset manager, with its BTC spot ETF recording an accumulative inflow of $1 billion. According to BitMEX Research, Fidelity’s FBTC experienced an inflow of $177.9 million on January 18, bringing its total inflows to $1.1 billion within five days of trading. 

FBTC now sits at the same table as BlackRock’s IBIT, whose total inflows are valued at $1.2 billion. Together, both investment funds by Fidelity and BlackRock now account for over 67% of the $3.4 billion inflows recorded in the Bitcoin spot ETF market so far. 

Other Bitcoin spot ETFs with a notable positive performance include Bitwise’s BITB, Ark Invest’s ARKB, and Invesco’s BTCO, which have posted individual total inflows of $395.5 million, $320.9 million, and $194.8 million, respectively. 

On the other hand, Grayscale’s GBTC continues to experience outflows on a massive scale. 

BitMEX Research reveals that GBTC recorded an outflow of $579.6 million on January 18, leading the Bitcoin spot ETF market to witness a net outflow of $131.6 million. This represented the second day the BTC spot ETF market recorded a net outflow since its launch. 

GBTC’s total outflows are now valued at $2.1 billion, resulting in Bitcoin spot ETFs having a cumulative net inflow of only $1.3 billion despite the $1 billion status of BlackRock and Fidelity’s ETFs.

Fidelity

Bitcoin’s Price Overview

Against popular predictions, Bitcoin has witnessed a price decline in the last two weeks following the approval of the much-anticipated BTC spot ETF on January 10. Many analysts have attributed this unexpected development to the massive selling pressure generated by GBTC’s outflows. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $41,536, with a decline of 2.55% and 5.50% in the last seven and 14 days, respectively. As earlier stated, the premier cryptocurrency has garnered some gains of 1.56% in the last day, which may be indicative of a recovery, however, it is too early to call.

Bitcoin spot ETF

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Crypto Community Raises Alarm Over Coinbase’s Dominance Of Bitcoin Held In Spot ETFs

Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, is presently serving as the custodian of the majority of the Spot Bitcoin ETFs managed by various asset management companies in the industry. This notable concentration is raising worries in the crypto community about significant centralization and potential risks associated with the custodianship. 

Coinbase Dominate ETFs As Major Custodian

Coinbase’s significant role in the advancement of Spot Bitcoin ETFs has become a target of scrutiny in the crypto community. The American crypto exchange is currently the custodian of 9 out of 11 Spot Bitcoin ETF companies, including BlackRock, Grayscale, Ark/21 Shares, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Invesco/Galaxy, Valkyrie, GlobalX, and Franklin Templeton. 

Notably, only Fidelity and VanEck have opted for alternative custodianship approaches. Fidelity is employing a self-custody program for its Spot Bitcoin ETF, while VanEck has selected Gemini, a crypto exchange, as the custodian for its Spot BTC ETF. 

The prominent role of Coinbase as the major custodian for Spot BTC ETFs has raised serious questions and concerns in the crypto community. Specifically, Gabor Gurbacs, Director of Digital Assets Strategy at VanEck, has deemed Coinbase’s concentrated level of custodianship to be a “double-edged sword.” 

Gurbacs stated that Coinbase would bear substantial responsibility as the primary custodian for Spot Bitcoin ETFs and would reap significant benefits from it. However, he also hinted at potential counterparty risks associated with concentrating assets within a single entity. 

Similarly, a crypto analyst on X (formerly Twitter) highlighted the potential for increased scrutiny from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding Coinbase, given its prominent position in the Spot Bitcoin ETF market. The crypto exchange is presently in a legal battle with the SEC, and many crypto enthusiasts believe that Coinbase’s regulatory challenges may pose a threat to the success of Spot BTC ETFs. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

Coinbase CFO Bullish On Bitcoin ETFs

The Chief Financial Officer of Coinbase, Alesia Haas appeared recently in an interview on Bloomberg TV, discussing the effects of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the crypto market. 

When asked if the momentum of Spot Bitcoin ETFs would become a “game-changer” in the future, Haas responded confidently with a resounding “absolutely.”

The Coinbase CFO declared that the SEC’s approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs was an important day for crypto, as it positions Bitcoin into a much broader investable asset class. She also revealed that the deployment of Spot Bitcoin ETFs would allow investors to have greater access to BTC products, extending its reach to billions of people around the globe and increasing the amount of inflows into ETFs. 

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Bitcoin To $34,000? Analyst Predicts Next Move For BTC With This Chart Pattern

Bitcoin had a surprisingly underwhelming price performance over the past week despite the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving the trading of spot BTC ETFs. The price of the flagship cryptocurrency almost broke into $49,000 at the peak of this positive news but has since retraced back below $43,000.

Ali Martinez, a popular crypto analyst on the X platform, has offered insight into the current market climate of Bitcoin, highlighting that the cryptocurrency’s price may face further downward pressure over the coming weeks.

Analyst Forecasts 20% Price Drop For BTC 

In a recent post on X, the crypto pundit shared an update on his analysis of the Bitcoin’s price chart on the three-day timeframe. On January 4, Martinez initially identified an ascending parallel channel, which seems to be governing the Bitcoin price action since September 2023.

In price analysis, an ascending parallel channel is a technical analysis pattern that features two parallel upward-sloping trend lines. While it is mostly a bullish chart pattern, the ascending parallel channel can signal a short-term bearish move or even a trend reversal.

Bitcoin

Martinez noted in his post that the current setup appears to be holding true after the Bitcoin price faced rejection from the parallel channel’s upper boundary at $48,000. Following this price correction, the analyst has predicted $34,000 at the channel’s lower boundary as the natural next stop for the premier cryptocurrency.

A downward move to $34,000 would represent a significant 20% decline from Bitcoin’s current price point. However, according to Martinez’s analysis, it might not be looking all gloomy for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

On the bright side, the analyst expects a quick recovery for the Bitcoin price after the downward spiral to $34,000. Martinez said that the pioneer crypto could make a rebound back to the upper boundary at $57,000.

Bitcoin Price Overview

As of press time, the Bitcoin price stands at $42,909, reflecting a negligible 0.6% decline in the past 24 hours. The premier cryptocurrency has struggled to hold above $43,000 since experiencing a massive downturn to below $42,000 on Friday.

Meanwhile, BTC’s profits since the turn of the year have been cut back to a mere 1.6%, putting the bullish future of the coin into question. Bitcoin is down by nearly 3% on the weekly timeframe, according to data from CoinGecko.

Nevertheless, BTC maintains its position as the largest asset in the cryptocurrency sector, with a market capitalization of roughly $841 billion.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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The Bitcoin Climax: Analyst Flags Market Peak Amid Spot ETF Hype Cooling Off

A notable shift in market sentiment has recently been observed, particularly around the Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) narrative. YouTube analyst Crypto Banter, in a recent analysis, suggests that the initial excitement surrounding Bitcoin spot ETFs is waning, leading to a change in investor behavior.

According to Crypto Banter, despite significant trading volumes in spot Bitcoin ETFs, which totaled $4.6 billion with Grayscale (GBTC) leading the pack, there’s more than meets the eye.

Analyst Predicts Pullback Amid Local Top Signs

A deeper look into the analyst’s video reveals that GBTC’s sales are primarily attributed to its higher fees and the locking up of “older Bitcoin,” indicating minimal new inflows. According to the analyst, this lack of new capital could trigger market apprehension, leading to a sell-off.

The analyst’s technical and fundamental analysis points to signs of a local top forming, with particular reference to the CME Bitcoin Futures launch. However, the analyst clarifies that this does not signal a cycle top or the wrap of the bull run but suggests a possible pullback in the meantime, as indicated by BTC’s daily candle close.

The analyst noted in the video:

The trend is still very much towards the upside but as soon as price starts to break down below [the] key levels we’re probably going lower $38,000 and then $30,000 next.

Looking at the bigger picture, the upcoming Bitcoin halving, set to occur later in April, is expected to propel demand and, consequently, the price of Bitcoin, according to the analyst.

The analyst further acknowledges that while the market has witnessed a significant upward trend, these have been interspersed with substantial corrections, some as severe as 40%. While a correction of this magnitude isn’t forecasted, the analyst suggests a pullback in the 20-30% range is plausible.

Behind Bitcoin Bearish Turn

Bitcoin has shown bearish price action, decreasing by 5% in the last 24 hours, with a trading price of $43,791. This downturn follows a recent spike above $48,000, spurred by the live trading of spot Bitcoin ETF trading in the United States on Thursday.

BTC price chart on TradingView

Dan Ripoll, managing director at Swan Bitcoin, sheds light on the current price dynamics, attributing them to the time brokerage firms’ compliance departments took to approve new products. Ripoll adds that large broker-dealers like Vanguard, UBS, Citi, and Merrill Lynch have restricted or completely disallowed their retail clients from purchasing spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Vanguard’s decision to prevent its customers from investing in the new BTC Spot ETFs, citing a misalignment with their “investment philosophy,” is pivotal in adopting Bitcoin ETFs.

This stance by the world’s second-largest asset manager, behind BlackRock, adds complexity to the spot Bitcoin ETF landscape. Ripoll expresses surprise at such ideological resistance, predicting a loss of customers for these firms due to this approach.

Matt Dines, Chief Investment Officer at Build Asset Management LLC, points out another fact: the capital from the day’s spot ETF volume has yet to impact the fund portfolio managers’ activities.

Dines mentioned that most creation orders from the day’s flows will only be settled the next morning, meaning the capital driving the current market hasn’t begun influencing the offers in the UTXO market yet. Notably, this delay could imply that the full effect of the spot ETF trading is yet to manifest in the market.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Spot ETF: Analyst Predicts 2 Scenarios For Price Beforehand

Amid the anticipation circling the Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval, crypto analyst CryptoQuant has made a bold prediction for the digital asset beforehand.

2 Major Scenarios For Bitcoin Price

CryptoQuant, a well-known cryptocurrency expert, has revealed two major scenarios for Bitcoin in advance to BTC Spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). According to the analyst, BTC will undergo a bullish and bearish scenario before approval from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The analyst’s prediction delves into Bitcoin price support and resistance analysis. CryptoQuant’s forecast was based on on-chain data of the average unit price of BTC holders.

The post read:

2 Scenarios Before Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval and How to Respond. This post explains how to analyze the Bitcoin price support and resistance using on-chain data of the average unit price of #Bitcoin holders.

For the bullish scenario, CryptoQuant noted that the percentage of daily to weekly holders is expected to increase by 8% if BTC reaches $48,500. This suggests “an overheated market and reinforces a correction.”

The analyst asserted that the $48,500 price mark is the “average unit price” for holders between 2-3 years. In addition, a primary resistance can also be formed at this level.

Bitcoin

Meanwhile, for the bearish scenario, CryptoQuant noted a drop in Bitcoin price around 2-30% in the past during its upswing. The crypto expert also added that BTC could form a support level between $30,000 to $34,000 if the price plummets.

Furthermore, CryptoQuant highlighted an average unit price of $34,000 for both the 18-month to two-year and one-week to one-month holding periods. Meanwhile, the average unit price for the holding period of three to twelve months is $30,000.

So far, the expert has highlighted rising dangers and uncertainty as the approval outcome of the Bitcoin Spot ETF approaches. CryptoQuant has issued a warning to the crypto community not to take on the risk as this is “unnecessary.”

BTC Price Dip After Approval Outcome

Institutional trading analyst MacroScope has forecasted a price dip for Bitcoin following the ETF approval outcome. “We know there will be a dip at some point after approval,” MacroScope stated.

The analyst further added that the dip could take place a day or week after the outcome. However, he asserted that the exact timeframe is “hard to predict, but it should surprise no one.”

MacroScope also highlighted a few factors to watch out for during the dip. The expert noted that “once the dip stabilizes, the next upward move could be a ripper.”

In addition, billions of funds will be waiting for the turn, trying to time it just right. However, MacroScope has suggested allocating a starting position in order not to miss this turn.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $46,860, indicating an increase of over 6% in the past day. Its trading volume is significantly up by over 70% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap

Bitcoin

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Forbes Says Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Will Send BTC Price To $80,000

Global media company Forbes has published a column predicting a staggering $80,000 price surge for Bitcoin following the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Bitcoin To Rise $80,000

American business magazine and global media company Forbes has recently released a report emphasizing the massive impact the approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF would have on the price of BTC. According to the publication, the price of Bitcoin could surge as high as $80,000 by the end of 2024. 

The analysis was disclosed by MarketWatch from crypto analysts at AllianceBernstein, one of the largest investment companies. According to analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, Bitcoin’s price could skyrocket to $80,000 if the US SEC approves Spot Bitcoin ETF applications. 

The crypto experts have also highlighted other factors that could propel the price of Bitcoin to $80,000 including the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April and growing demand from companies. 

“We expect 2024 to be a breakout inflection year for crypto. Bitcoin ETF flows build-up could be gradual, but the applicants will be fighting hard to get a lead into this massive asset accumulation game, tuning up advertising and Bitcoin branding leading to a snowball effect,” the analysts said. 

AllianceBernstein crypto experts have also predicted approximately $5 billion flowing into Spot Bitcoin ETFs during the first half of 2024. Their analysis suggests the second half may see double inflows of $10 billion, with projections indicating that BTC could attain a $1.5 trillion market cap before the year ends. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

SEC Caution Against FOMO Before BTC ETF Verdict

As the crypto space is gearing up for the US SEC’s final decision on Spot Bitcoin ETF applications on January 10, the regulator has published a report cautioning investors against the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) investments. 

In the report which was published in an X post by the US SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy on January 6, the US SEC highlighted all the negative effects of succumbing to FOMO, offering guidance on how to avoid or overcome the feeling. The report also provided advice on ways to mitigate investment risks and maneuver volatile market swings. 

“Say “NO GO to FOMO” (fear of missing out). Just because others might buy a particular investment, doesn’t mean it’s the right opportunity for you,” the SEC said. 

The regulator explained that FOMO can be a hard feeling to fight. However, it urged investors to always apply willpower when making investment decisions. “As you make investment decisions keep this phrase in mind, “NO GO to FOMO,” the regulator concluded.

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Analyst Predicts $570 Billion Inflow Amid Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval

Scott Melker, a cryptocurrency analyst and advocate has pointed out a massive inflow into Bitcoin following the approval of BTC Spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).

Bitcoin Might Be Poised For $570 Million Inflow

The crypto analyst shared his projections with the entire cryptocurrency community on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter). Melker proposed that $570 billion could be invested in a Bitcoin ETF, representing just 0.5% of the overall assets managed by Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs).

In the X post, Melker pointed out that the overall assets managed by RIAs are currently valued at $114 trillion. He also highlighted that the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is currently pegged at $860 billion.

The post read:

RIAs manage $114 TRILLION in assets. If a measly half of a percent of that money eventually comes into a #Bitcoin ETF, that would be roughly 570 billion dollars. The entire market cap of $BTC now is $860 BILLION.

Several crypto analyst seems to disagree with Melker’s projections and have shared their opinions on his claims. One of the analysts who has voiced his opinions toward the prediction is top Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas.

Eric Balchunas asserted that the RIAs assets valued at $114 trillion “seems really high.” He further added that the total advisor assets are worth around $30 trillion, due to data from market tracker Cerulli.

However, Melker backed up his claims by sharing a data screenshot from Thinkadvisor. Thinkadvisor highlighted that “15,114 fiduciary investment advisors currently manage $114 trillion in assets for 61.9 million clients.”

Another crypto enthusiast who has expressed displeasure with Melker’s inflow prediction is investment advisor Rick Ferri. The advisor challenged Melker noting that his “expectations are overblown.”

Ferri asserted that despite his 35 years of advisory experience, he still doesn’t understand why Melker would make such claims. Additionally, Ferri stressed that if any adviser decides to own BTC, they would have done so through Grayscale Bitcoin (BTC).

BTC Spot ETF To Serve As A Game-Changer For Crypto Market

Melker’s post came in response to Bruce Fenton’s post on how the Bitcoin Spot ETF could be a game-changer for crypto. Fenton predicted a dramatic change in the future while highlighting that several brokers, financial advisors, and RIAs are not knowledgeable about BTC.

According to the crypto investor, financial advisors must “keep up with what the public and customers are talking about.” Additionally, he noted that Bitcoin ought to be included in many portfolios, given its past 10 years of performance and correlation.

He also added that “financial advisors will follow the money and the trends.” Fenton asserted that advisors are not stupid about money and they will be motivated to learn.

Fenton went further to say that large investment firms would spend billions promoting to their clients Bitcoin-based investments. This would lead to chief economists talking about it, public awareness of its importance, and the creation of the best ads.

Bitcoin

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Revised Forecast: Bloomberg Analyst Cuts Probability Of Bitcoin Spot ETF Rejection To 5%

Popular Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has lowered the possibility of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) denying the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF to 5%. This latest forecast comes as crypto enthusiasts worldwide anticipate a wide-scale approval of various Bitcoin spot ETF proposals by the SEC on Wednesday, January 10.

Why The Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Appears Nearly Certain: Bloomberg Analysts Weigh In

In October, Eric Balchunas and fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart predicted that there is a 90% chance that ARK Invest and 21 shares would receive approval for their joint Bitcoin spot ETF bid on January 10, which marked the final deadline date for the SEC’s response on their application.

However, in a recent X post on January 6, Balchunas raised the probability of this greenlight to an astounding 95% after declaring that there was only a 5% probability the SEC would reject the ARK/21 ETF bid in the coming days. 

This new prediction is based on the implausibility of all scenarios, which could represent a possible delay or non-approval of the ARK/ 21 shares Bitcoin spot ETF application. In an earlier X post on January 6, James Seyffart had listed these scenarios starting with ARK/21 shares spontaneously withdrawing their ETF proposal from the SEC, which he claimed to be highly unlikely. 

Another scenario is that the SEC discovers new reasons to reject the launch of a crypto spot ETF, resulting in a drawn-out court battle between the US regulator and ARK/21Shares, a situation that Seyffart believes the SEC would rather avoid, especially following its recent loud legal loss against Grayscale investment.

The final event that the Bloomberg analyst believes could prevent the clearance of the ARK/21 Shares ETF bid is a direct intervention from the US Presidency, another scenario that appears remotely possible.  

The D-Day Approaches

The importance of ARK/21 Shares’ joint bid to the Bitcoin spot ETF saga revolves around its final deadline date for an SEC response, which is the earliest of the bunch. Now, it is believed that the SEC will rather approve several Bitcoin spot ETF applications at once regardless of their respective final deadline date in a similar fashion as it did with Ether-futures ETFs in August. 

This belief is backed by the discussions between the US regulator and various applicants in the last few weeks, leading to amendments in respective proposals, which indicates the preparation of an incoming approval.

At the time of writing, the set date of expectation remains January 10, with crypto enthusiasts highly enthusiastic about the potential bullish effects of a spot ETF on Bitcoin’s price over the year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade at $44,050, having gained by 4.50% in the last week.