Posted on

Grayscale Battling Outflows And Lower-Cost ETFs, Q1 Revenue Stays Flat At $156M

Grayscale Investments, the issuer of one of the recently approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, saw flat revenues in the first quarter of the year due to its decision to maintain fees on its flagship Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). 

Grayscale Exceeds Expectations Despite Outflows

According to a shareholder letter from its parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG), the operator of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust recorded $156 million in revenue, showing little change from the previous quarter.

Since the GBTC trust’s conversion to an ETF in January, Grayscale has seen outflows of about $17.4 billion as investors appear to have shifted their assets to new, lower-cost funds offered by BlackRock and Fidelity, the leaders in the US ETF race in terms of inflows recorded since January. 

While GBTC charges a 1.5% management fee, many of its competitors charge less than 0.3%, leading to outflows. In response, Grayscale announced plans in March to seek approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to spin off some of Grayscale’s assets into a new, lower-fee “Bitcoin Mini Trust.” 

Despite the outflows, the Q1 revenue attributable to GBTC exceeded Grayscale’s expectations. The firm had previously anticipated outflows due to increased competition under the ETF wrapper. Grayscale previously charged a 2% sponsorship fee before the trust was converted. 

The flat revenue was also attributed to higher average Bitcoin and Ethereum prices and a decrease in assets under management (AUM).

In contrast to Grayscale’s performance, all US spot Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed a total net inflow of over $11 billion thus far. However, demand for these ETFs has recently declined amidst tightening financial conditions in the US, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) faces the challenge of addressing persistent inflation.

DCG Reports 11% Q1 Revenue Increase

Digital Currency Group, founded by Barry Silbert and the parent company of Grayscale, reported an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q1 revenue to $229 million, primarily due to higher asset prices. 

However, revenue growth lagged behind Bitcoin’s price appreciation, which rose more than 60% during the same period. In its letter, DCG attributed this disparity to lower GBTC sponsor fees, redemptions, and steady mining revenues at its Foundry subsidiary.

Foundry, DCG’s mining subsidiary, experienced a sequential revenue increase of 35%, propelled by staking and equipment sales revenue. Meanwhile, Luno, the company’s crypto exchange subsidiary, witnessed a 46% quarter-over-quarter sales boost, driven by a significant surge in trading volume.

Grayscale

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $62,100 and has recently encountered significant price volatility. These price swings have failed to establish a stable position above crucial price thresholds.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

Posted on

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Experience Record Outflows, Losing $740 Million In Three Days

The 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their biggest three-day outflow since their debut in January, as reported by Bloomberg. This shift in investor sentiment comes after heightened interest that propelled the largest cryptocurrency in the market to a record high of $73,700.

Bitcoin ETFs See Record Outflows

Between Monday and Wednesday, a net total of $742 million exited the Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and a moderation in subscriptions for similar offerings from prominent firms like BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity Investments (FBTC).

According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has experienced a notable outflow surge. This recent development indicates a “second wind” of investor withdrawals, with a substantial $1.4 billion leaving the trust just this week. 

Bitcoin ETFs

Notably, these withdrawals have surpassed all other ETFs in year-to-date outflows and set a new record for cumulative outflows in ETF history, as shown in the chart above.

Nevertheless, GBTC continues to hold a prominent position in terms of revenue generation. It currently ranks third out of the 3,400 ETFs available, demonstrating its continued financial success.

Despite the recent outflows, the overall performance of these funds remains noteworthy, with net inflows of $11.4 billion recorded since their launch, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This signifies one of the most successful debuts for an ETF category.

Crypto Analyst Predicts “Massive Bounce” For BTC

Bitcoin experienced a significant surge of over 5% in the United States on Wednesday, propelled by signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) hinting at potential interest-rate cuts. 

However, the Asian market painted a different picture on Thursday, with Bitcoin losing momentum compared to continued gains in global stocks and gold. According to Bloomberg, the news of outflows from Bitcoin ETFs permeated markets, contributing to the contrasting performance.

Nonetheless, renowned crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe shared a bold prediction on social media platform X (formerly Twitter). In his post, he expressed optimism about a “massive bounce” for Bitcoin, suggesting the potential for a continuation of its upward trajectory. 

Van de Poppe also predicted that Bitcoin could consolidate in the near term before embarking on another rally towards the all-time high it reached before the halving event, which is expected to begin sometime in April.

Bitcoin ETFs

Currently, BTC is trading at $66,200, reflecting a 4% increase in the past 24 hours despite ongoing outflows in the ETF market. Over longer time frames, Bitcoin has shown consistent gains, with a 27% increase over the past thirty days and an impressive 136% gain year-to-date.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

Posted on

Bitcoin ETF Frenzy: BlackRock Smashes Expectations With $788 Million Inflows In One Day

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, achieved a remarkable milestone on March 5. Attracting a staggering $788 million, it exceeded its previous record of $612 million in inflows in a single day. This surge in investment coincided with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $69,300, surpassing its previous ATH set in 2021.

Bitcoin ETF Trading Volumes Reaches Record $10 Billion

Shortly after Bitcoin hit its new milestone, the market experienced a notable price correction, dropping below $60,000. However, this dip seemed to entice ETF buyers who saw it as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at a discounted price. 

As a result, the Bitcoin price has quickly recovered and reached the $65,200 level, positioning itself for further price gains and consolidation above its ATH.

Bitcoin ETF

According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, the ten Bitcoin ETFs traded a staggering $10 billion in volume on the same day, breaking the previous record set just a week ago. 

The expert noted that this surge in trading activity is not entirely unexpected, as volatility and volume often go hand in hand with ETFs. Balchunas also highlighted that several ETFs, including Blackrock’s IBIT, Fidelity (FBTC), Bitwise (BITB), and Arkham (ARKB), achieved record-breaking trading volumes.

Interestingly, while the Bitcoin ETFs experienced a surge in inflows, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued its trend of outflows since the ETFs launched on January 11. 

Balchunas noted that GBTC has seen nearly $10 billion in outflows, yet its total assets under management remain unchanged since its launch. This phenomenon can be attributed to the bull market subsidy, wherein investors continue to hold assets despite outflows, generating revenue for the trust.

A Temporary Halt Before Further Gains?

Bitcoin’s recent price action has encountered resistance at its ATH level of $69,000, signaling a temporary rejection from this crucial point. This coincides with the activation of the Golden Ratio Multiplier, the first and only cycle top indicator to have fired thus far.

The Golden Ratio Multiplier, an indicator often used in technical analysis, has seen its cycle top band (level 5) rise to $69,099, aligning perfectly with Bitcoin’s recent peak. However, considering this is the sole indicator predicting a cycle top, some analysts, including Crypto Con, believe that a significant market correction may not have occurred yet.

Bitcoin ETF

According to Crypto Con, this current phase represents a temporary resting place for Bitcoin’s early parabolic ascent. Crypto Con suggests that once Bitcoin breaks through the ATH, it will begin a new phase characterized by heightened market activity and potential price gains. 

Bitcoin ETF

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

Posted on

BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF Launches In Brazil, ETF Market Secures 4% Of Total BTC Supply

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, announced the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT39) launch in Brazil on Thursday. Starting today, Friday, March 1, shares of this index fund, which tracks the spot price of Bitcoin (BTC), will be traded on the Brazilian Commodities and Futures Exchange, known as B3.

BlackRock Launches IBIT39 Bitcoin ETF In Brazil

Karina Saade, president of BlackRock in Brazil, highlighted the company’s commitment to providing high-quality access vehicles to investors in the digital asset market. She stated:

IBIT39 is a natural progression of our efforts over many years and builds on the fundamental capabilities we have established so far in the digital asset market.

Felipe Gonçalves, Superintendent of Interest and Currency Products at B3 discussed the growth of the listed crypto market in Brazil. He noted that the market, which started in 2021, now has 13 ETFs with total assets of R$2.5 billion, or about $505 million.

While the market experienced fluctuations in its early years, it reached an eye-catching daily trading volume of R$30 million reais ($6.6 million) by the end of last year, according to local media reports in Brazil. 

Gonçalves mentioned that investors in crypto ETFs include institutional investors, such as funds, and individual investors, with a current number of 170,000. Liquidity in the market is provided by non-residents investing in B3 as a whole.

IBIT39 will reportedly have a management fee of 0.25%, with a one-year waiver that reduces the fee to 0.12% once the fund reaches its first $5 billion in assets under management (AUM). The product will be made available to the general public, allowing broader participation in the Bitcoin market.

$7.5B Net Inflow In Bitcoin ETFs Since Launch In The US

BlackRock’s IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) ETF has emerged as a notable player in the US ETF race, countering a significant outflow from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

BitMEX research data shows that on February 29, 2024, positive flows amounted to $92 million for the day. Notably, BlackRock and GBTC offset each other, experiencing $600 million in opposite directions. The data shows that since the ETFs began trading on January 11, 2024, there has been an impressive net inflow of $7.5 billion.

The overall holdings of spot funds, which directly hold Bitcoin, stood at 776,464 BTC (equivalent to $47.7 billion) on Friday morning, according to BitMEX Research. It’s essential to consider that the total BTC supply currently in circulation is 19.64 million, with a maximum limit of 21 million. 

With this context, the fact that the ETFs have secured 4% of the total BTC supply is a significant milestone. It demonstrates the growing demand for Bitcoin among investors utilizing these index funds to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency.

Blackrock

BTC continues to consolidate above the $62,000 mark, rising 1.3% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

Posted on

Bitcoin ETF Breaks Records: BlackRock’s IBIT Joins Elite ‘$10 Billion Club’ Amidst Soaring Demand

The demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has surged since their recent approval on January 10, with BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF leading the way. This ETF has reached impressive milestones in less than two months, attracting significant investor interest and opening doors for various market participants to invest in the largest cryptocurrency directly. 

As institutional and retail investors flock to these new investment vehicles, market experts predict a bullish trend and anticipate a potential price surge.

Bitcoin ETF Frenzy

According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF has quickly joined the esteemed “$10 billion club,” reaching the milestone faster than any other ETF, including Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), noting that only 152 ETFs out of 3,400 have crossed the threshold.

Balchunas notes that IBIT’s ascent to this club was primarily driven by significant inflows, which accounted for 78% of its assets under management (AUM). This reflects the growing appetite for Bitcoin exposure among investors seeking diversified and regulated investment options.

In particular, the current trajectory of the ETF market paints a picture of resilience and bullish sentiment in the market. Equity ETF flows, and leveraged trading levels are positive indicators, although they have not yet reached the euphoria seen in 2021, Balchunas notes. 

However, Bloomberg’s new BI ETF Greed/Fear Indicator, which incorporates various inputs, highlights the optimistic outlook shared by ETF investors, as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin ETF

On this matter, crypto analyst “On-Chain College” went to social media X (formerly Twitter) to emphasize the significant demand for Bitcoin as evidenced by its rapid departure from exchanges. 

In its analysis, On-Chain College highlights that Bitcoin ETFs buy approximately ten times the daily amount of BTC mined. At the same time, the upcoming halving event will further reduce the mining supply. The analyst predicts when demand will exceed available supply, leading to potential upward price pressure.

Highest Monthly Close Since 2021

Bitcoin’s recent market performance has caught the attention of wealth manager Caleb Franzen, who highlights the significance of the highest monthly close since October 2021. 

Franzen further emphasizes the bullish momentum by pointing out that the 36-month Williams%R Oscillator has closed above the overbought level for only the fourth time in history. Historical data reveals impressive returns following such signals, indicating the potential for substantial gains in the coming months. 

Bitcoin ETF

Additionally, Franzen notes the changing dynamics of the market, with increased institutional participation and the ease of retail onboarding through ETFs.

Franzen presents a compelling case for the bullish nature of overbought signals, urging market participants to view them as momentum indicators rather than signals to fade. Previous instances of overbought signals have resulted in significant Bitcoin price appreciation:

  • February 2013: +3,900% in 9 months
  • December 2016: +1,900% in 12 months
  • November 2020: +260% in 12 months

While acknowledging diminishing returns in each cycle, Franzen highlights the unprecedented level of institutional participation and the ease of retail access through ETFs. 

Even if Bitcoin were to match the +260% gain from the November 2020 signal, it would reach a price of $180,000, surpassing Franzen’s minimum cycle target of $175,000. 

Ultimately, Franzen notes that bull markets are typically characterized by a rising ETHBTC ratio and a falling BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance). While these characteristics have yet to manifest fully, Franzen suggests that a multi-quarter rally in the broader cryptocurrency market may be on the horizon.

Bitcoin ETF

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

Posted on

Bitcoin ETF Day 8 Update: Market Rebound Signals Bottom As Grayscale Selling Slows Down

Since the approval of Bitcoin ETF applications by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 11, followed by the commencement of trading a day later, the ETF race has witnessed impressive trading volumes on each trading day.

As the market recovers from a sharp correction, recent developments indicate a notable slowdown in Grayscale selling, which could potentially signal a rebound for the Bitcoin price following the recent 20% drop.

Market expert James Mullarney and Bloomberg ETF expert Erich Balchunas provide key insights into Bitcoin ETF fund flows after 8 days, shedding light on the evolving dynamics and investor sentiments surrounding this development.

Hope For Bitcoin Bulls 

One of the key observations made by James Mullarney is the deceleration in Grayscale’s selling activities. While Grayscale continues to sell, the pace of their selling has significantly reduced, indicating a potential shift in their strategy. 

This is seen as a positive sign for the market, as a slowdown in Grayscale selling could contribute to stabilizing Bitcoin prices and restoring investor confidence.

Bitcoin ETF

Amidst this backdrop, major players in the asset management industry, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, have showcased their resilience and commitment to Bitcoin. 

BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset managers, currently holds 44,000 BTC in assets under management (AUM), indicating their growing exposure to the cryptocurrency. 

Similarly, Bitcoin ETF issuer Fidelity, renowned for its digital asset services, stands strong with 40,000 BTC AUM, demonstrating their continued confidence in Bitcoin and its long-term potential.

Moreover, the dynamics of the recent sell-off are noteworthy. The majority of the selling pressure observed in the market involved FTX, which completed day 8 of trading. 

However, as the market enters day 9, the expectation is for a significant reduction in selling pressure from FTX and Grayscale, potentially contributing to a more stable market environment, according to Mullarney. 

The emergence of Bitcoin ETFs as significant holders of the cryptocurrency is another positive aspect to consider. ETFs have not only absorbed the 101,600 BTC sold by Grayscale but have also increased their holdings by an additional 21,100 BTC in just 8 days. 

According to  Mullarney, this indicates growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, as ETFs continue to accumulate significant amounts of the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin ETF Issuers Counter Grayscale Selling

Despite Grasycale’s selling spree, Mullarney highlights that the Bitcoin ETF managers alone are acquiring 15 times the daily Bitcoin supply, surpassing 13,444 BTC against the 900 BTC daily creation rate. 

This notable inflow of BTC demonstrates the strong demand from institutional investors and highlights the potential impact of ETFs on the overall Bitcoin market. 

Interestingly, the new ETFs have absorbed a net total of 122,000 BTC in just 8 days, overcoming the impact of Grayscale’s release and contributing to a positive net inflow.

Bloomberg ETF expert Erich Balchunas adds further insights to the analysis. Balchunas notes that the volume of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has decreased, which could be a sign of exhaustion in selling. 

However, $515 million was withdrawn from GBTC yesterday, resulting in a total outflow of $3.96 billion since its conversion to an ETF. On a more positive note, there was a net inflow of $409 million on the ninth day, indicating renewed investor interest.

Bitcoin ETF

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

Posted on

Bitcoin ETF Approval Triggers $1.2 Billion Trading Volume And New Highs For BTC Price

In a highly anticipated move, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved all 11 Bitcoin ETF applications, and the market response has been nothing short of remarkable. The approval has led to significant trading volume and propelled Bitcoin to a new 22-month high.

Within minutes of the Bitcoin ETFs going live, Bitcoin surged over 8% to reach $48,400, representing a new record since the end of the crypto bear market. The early price movement aligns with the predictions made by the majority of experts in the crypto industry.

Bitcoin ETF Trading Makes Spectacular Debut

Bloomberg ETF expert James Seyffart reported an astonishing $1.2 billion in trading volume for spot Bitcoin ETFs within 30 minutes of trading. Seyffart captured the excitement with his “Cointucky Derby” analogy, highlighting the performance of different ETFs.

Grayscale’s GBTC Bitcoin Trust took the lead in the “Cointucky Derby,” recording an impressive trading volume of $446 million in the initial minutes. It was closely followed by BlackRock’s Bitcoin Trust, which achieved a trading volume of $388 million within the first half-hour.

Bitcoin ETF

Fidelity secured the third spot with a trading volume of $230 million, outperforming Hashdex and Wisdom Tree, which recorded $1 million and $1.1 million in trading volume, respectively.

While the exact breakdown of the trading volume remains uncertain, Seyffart noted that the evening’s data might provide more insights. 

However, the Bloomberg ETF expert speculated that a significant portion of the trading volume could be attributed to new flows into the ETFs. Additionally, he suggested that a notable portion of GBTC’s trading volume might be due to outflows.

Is Bitcoin On A Clear Path To $50,000?

With the Bitcoin ETF race in full throttle, Bitcoin appears to be on a promising trajectory toward the $50,000 milestone, which could serve as a significant catalyst for Bitcoin bulls and the broader crypto industry.

Currently, having surpassed the $48,000 mark, Bitcoin’s price has reached a level where minimal resistance levels are hindering its ascent to $50,000. 

The next notable hurdle lies well above $50,700, followed by potential attempts to reach $53,000. Given the expected spot buys in the Bitcoin market following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, combined with a considerable separation between major resistance lines, these price levels may be easily breached.

Once beyond the $50,000 threshold, Bitcoin could potentially progress to $51,000, then $53,000, and subsequently $56,000, before ultimately setting its sights on the highly anticipated $60,000 milestone. 

This series of price targets may be readily attainable for the largest cryptocurrency in the market, as it navigates through the anticipated market dynamics.

Ultimately, the SEC’s approval of the Bitcoin ETFs has brought renewed optimism to the market, with investors and industry experts closely monitoring the impact of these ETFs on the broader cryptocurrency landscape. 

The surge in trading volume and Bitcoin’s impressive price movement signify growing interest from investors seeking regulated and traditional investment avenues in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin ETF

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

Posted on

Bitcoin ETF Approval Triggers $1.2 Billion Trading Volume And New Highs For BTC Price

In a highly anticipated move, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved all 11 Bitcoin ETF applications, and the market response has been nothing short of remarkable. The approval has led to significant trading volume and propelled Bitcoin to a new 22-month high.

Within minutes of the Bitcoin ETFs going live, Bitcoin surged over 8% to reach $48,400, representing a new record since the end of the crypto bear market. The early price movement aligns with the predictions made by the majority of experts in the crypto industry.

Bitcoin ETF Trading Makes Spectacular Debut

Bloomberg ETF expert James Seyffart reported an astonishing $1.2 billion in trading volume for spot Bitcoin ETFs within 30 minutes of trading. Seyffart captured the excitement with his “Cointucky Derby” analogy, highlighting the performance of different ETFs.

Grayscale’s GBTC Bitcoin Trust took the lead in the “Cointucky Derby,” recording an impressive trading volume of $446 million in the initial minutes. It was closely followed by BlackRock’s Bitcoin Trust, which achieved a trading volume of $388 million within the first half-hour.

Bitcoin ETF

Fidelity secured the third spot with a trading volume of $230 million, outperforming Hashdex and Wisdom Tree, which recorded $1 million and $1.1 million in trading volume, respectively.

While the exact breakdown of the trading volume remains uncertain, Seyffart noted that the evening’s data might provide more insights. 

However, the Bloomberg ETF expert speculated that a significant portion of the trading volume could be attributed to new flows into the ETFs. Additionally, he suggested that a notable portion of GBTC’s trading volume might be due to outflows.

Is Bitcoin On A Clear Path To $50,000?

With the Bitcoin ETF race in full throttle, Bitcoin appears to be on a promising trajectory toward the $50,000 milestone, which could serve as a significant catalyst for Bitcoin bulls and the broader crypto industry.

Currently, having surpassed the $48,000 mark, Bitcoin’s price has reached a level where minimal resistance levels are hindering its ascent to $50,000. 

The next notable hurdle lies well above $50,700, followed by potential attempts to reach $53,000. Given the expected spot buys in the Bitcoin market following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, combined with a considerable separation between major resistance lines, these price levels may be easily breached.

Once beyond the $50,000 threshold, Bitcoin could potentially progress to $51,000, then $53,000, and subsequently $56,000, before ultimately setting its sights on the highly anticipated $60,000 milestone. 

This series of price targets may be readily attainable for the largest cryptocurrency in the market, as it navigates through the anticipated market dynamics.

Ultimately, the SEC’s approval of the Bitcoin ETFs has brought renewed optimism to the market, with investors and industry experts closely monitoring the impact of these ETFs on the broader cryptocurrency landscape. 

The surge in trading volume and Bitcoin’s impressive price movement signify growing interest from investors seeking regulated and traditional investment avenues in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin ETF

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

Posted on

Bitcoin Price Prediction: ETC Group Anticipates Surpassing $100,000 By End 2024

Numerous price predictions have emerged as the Bitcoin price continues to demonstrate significant growth throughout the year, fueled by factors such as the upcoming halving event and potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

Notably, the ETC Group has released a comprehensive report shedding light on the potential for new all-time highs in 2024 and an impressive milestone of $100,000 by year-end.

Bitcoin Price Recovery Sets The Stage For A Promising 2024

According to the ETC Group’s recent report, 2023 served as a recovery year for Bitcoin and crypto assets, with pivotal catalysts setting the stage for the following year. 

Per the report, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF filing in June 2023 laid the groundwork for increased adoption of this emerging asset class in 2024 and beyond. 

Despite the progress made, the report highlights that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are still in their infancy in terms of adoption in most developed countries. 

Global surveys indicate an adoption rate of approximately 18%, suggesting that roughly one in five individuals worldwide holds some crypto asset.

One of the highly anticipated events expected to drive Bitcoin price appreciation is the BTC Halving scheduled for the end of April 2024. While some argue that the halving is already priced in due to its public knowledge, historical data demonstrates significant price increases following previous halvings. 

Notably, the ETC Group’s base case prediction forecasts that Bitcoin’s price will reach new all-time highs in 2024 and surpass $100,000 by the year’s end.

On-Chain Metrics Signal Bullish Outlook For BTC In 2024

Several on-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin’s supply is scarcer this cycle than the previous one.  According to the report, key indicators such as the percentage of exchange supply at a 5-year low and the all-time high percentage of supply in the last 1+ years suggest a potential bull market with increased distribution of accumulated coins to new investors. 

Additionally, macro factors, including the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, a likely US recession, a reversal of monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, contribute to a favorable outlook for the Bitcoin price in 2024.

A major point of discussion among investors revolves around the potential price impact if a spot Bitcoin ETF gets approved in the US. The report highlights that variations in global Bitcoin ETP flows have explained approximately 40% of Bitcoin’s price variation over the past six months. 

Assuming that 20% of investors would consider such an investment and allocate 3% of their assets under management (AuM) to Bitcoin, an estimated $33.5 billion of new capital could enter the market. 

This influx of funds, almost doubling the global Bitcoin ETP AuM, could lead to a price impact of around 98%.

Overall, the ETC Group’s in-depth analysis and predictions suggest an auspicious year for Bitcoin price 2024. With anticipated new all-time highs and the possibility of surpassing $100,000 by year-end, Bitcoin’s growth trajectory shows no signs of slowing down. 

Bitcoin price

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

Posted on

Bitcoin ETF Hype: Bloomberg Intelligence Envisions $100 Billion Market If Regulatory Approval Granted

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues its upward trajectory toward $38,000, the long-awaited arrival of a US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could open the floodgates of digital currency investing for institutional and retail investors.

Notably, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that the potential spot Bitcoin ETF market could reach a staggering $100 billion, signaling a breakthrough for cryptocurrencies on Wall Street.

Inquiries Surge As Spot Bitcoin ETF Looms

The anticipation surrounding Bitcoin ETFs stems from the expected regulatory approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). After a decade of rejecting various applications, the SEC is on track to green-light ETFs that will enable the buying and selling Bitcoin within a tax-efficient and cost-effective framework. 

This pivotal regulatory shift has sparked optimism among digital asset proponents, who see this as a redemption opportunity following the industry’s recent challenges.

Respected heavyweights such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco are expected to participate in the spot Bitcoin ETF market. Collaborations like the one between Galaxy Digital Holdings and Invesco further emphasize the growing interest from reputable financial institutions. 

On this matter, Galaxy Digital recently hosted a conference call attended by approximately 300 investment professionals, discussing strategies for allocating investments to Bitcoin in anticipation of the ETF debut.

According to Bloomberg, wealth managers and financial advisers are increasingly intrigued by the potential of Bitcoin ETFs. Professionals like Jeff Janson at Summit Wealth have received inquiries from investors of all ages, indicating a growing appetite for digital assets in portfolios. 

Coinbase suggests that ETFs will attract immediate inflows and reshape the market through fresh lending and derivatives trades. However, it is important to note that this transformation will take time to unfold fully.

The imminent launch of Bitcoin ETFs represents a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency industry, potentially catapulting it into the mainstream financial landscape. 

As estimated by Bloomberg Intelligence, the projected $100 billion market for spot Bitcoin ETF underscores the growing confidence and widespread interest among investors. 

BTC’s Dominance Unshaken

According to a recent report by CoinShares, Bitcoin has maintained its dominance in the cryptocurrency market, experiencing a notable inflow of $155 million. 

This surge in investment comes as the last eight weeks of inflows alone account for approximately 3.4% of the total assets under management.

Interestingly, while Bitcoin saw substantial inflows, there were outflows of approximately $8.5 million from short-Bitcoin positions the previous week. This suggests that investors are increasingly optimistic about BTC’s future and its potential for further growth. 

Bitcoin ETF

In line with the above, the report suggests that this positive BTC sentiment is closely linked to the expected approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $37,100, up 1.7% in the past 24 hours, with expectations that the largest cryptocurrency on the market can once again break through the $38,000 mark and consolidate above it to target the $40,000 mark. 

However, it remains to be seen whether the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs will be the main catalyst for further gains in the coming months or whether a rejection could cause BTC to test investor confidence and lower support levels.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

Posted on

CoinShares Predicts $141,000 Bitcoin Price, Forecasts $14.4 Billion Inflows From ETFs

In a recently published report by CoinShares, analyst James Butterfill delves into the relationship between inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and changes in the Bitcoin price. 

The report addresses the critical question of how much inflow into ETFs could be anticipated upon launching a Bitcoin spot ETF in the US and the potential impact of these flows on the Bitcoin Price.

Bitcoin ETFs Could Attract $14.4 Billion Inflows

Butterfill highlights Galaxy’s analysis, which estimates that the United States has approximately $14.4 trillion in addressable assets. Assuming a conservative scenario where 10% of these assets invest in a spot Bitcoin ETF with an average allocation of 1%, it could result in approximately $14.4 billion of inflows within the first year. 

Per the report, this would mark the largest inflows on record, surpassing 2021’s inflows of $7.24 billion, which accounted for 11.5% of assets under management (AuM). 

However, it is worth noting that in 2020, inflows reached $5.5 billion, representing a higher 21.6% of AuM, while Bitcoin’s price surged by 303% compared to 60% in 2021.

The report suggests a correlation between inflows as a percentage of AuM and price changes. Inflows coincide with rising prices, indicating that many ETF investors engage in momentum trading. Conversely, during periods of price stagnation, inflows have tended to moderate. 

However, it is important to note that exchange-traded product (ETP) investors do not necessarily lead price action, as evidenced by volume data indicating that ETP volumes represent an average of 3.5% of daily Bitcoin trading turnover on trusted exchanges since 2018.

Bitcoin Price Surge Predicted

By analyzing weekly ETP flows and their percentage of AuM, the report identifies a trend with a coefficient of determination (R2 ) value of 0.31, suggesting a discernible relationship between flows and price changes. 

Utilizing this trendline, the report estimates that the aforementioned $14.4 billion of inflows could potentially drive the price of Bitcoin up to $141,000 per coin.

Nevertheless, accurately predicting the precise level of inflows upon the launch of spot ETFs remains challenging. The report acknowledges the difficulty in determining the exact magnitude of inflows. 

It emphasizes that regulatory approval and corporate acceptance are gradual processes due to Bitcoin’s perceived complexity, which may require corporations and funds to build knowledge and confidence before committing to investment.

The potential wall of demand that could materialize following the introduction of a spot-based ETF is uncertain. While such ETFs offer portfolio diversification and enhanced Sharpe ratios, regulatory approval and corporate adoption may take time due to perceived complexities associated with Bitcoin. 

Ultimately, CoinShares believes that Corporations and funds may require an extended period to familiarize themselves with the asset class and gain confidence before entering the market.

All in all, the CoinShares report sheds light on the potential impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the price of BTC. While it is challenging to precisely determine the level of inflows and their subsequent effect on the market, the report suggests that launching a Bitcoin spot ETF in the US could potentially drive the price of Bitcoin to US$141,000 per coin. 

Bitcoin Price

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating above the significant psychological level of $36,000. Over the past 24 hours, it has experienced a minimal decrease of 0.2%, while showing a 1.3% increase within the 1-hour time frame.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

Posted on

Bitcoin Price Crosses $35,000, Here’s Why

The Bitcoin price barreled past the $35,000 level on multiple exchanges about an hour ago and has continued to maintain impressive bullish momentum. The reason for the surge is once again tied back to the anticipation around a potential approval of the BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF and the expectations of it triggering a bull market.

BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF Listing Surfaces

The Bitcoin price rally was triggered by an image that has been circulated many times on social media platforms such as X (formerly Twitter) showing that the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust had been listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) under the ticker IBTC.

Usually, a listing on the DTCC is taken as a step for ETFs that are ready for approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Additionally, BlackRock, which is the largest asset management company in the world, reportedly told the regulator that it plans to seed its Spot Bitcoin ETF in October. So the asset manager looks to be readying for an October launch as well.

Related Reading: ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood Reveals Why Bitcoin Will Reach $1.48 Million

As Bloomberg Analyst Eric Balchunas explains, “Seeding an ETF is when initial funding is provided (typically) by a bank or broker dealer used to purchase a few creation units (in this case bitcoin) in exchange for ETF shares which can be traded in open market on Day One.”

It should be noted that just because an ETF is listed on the DTCC does not mean that it will gain immediate approval. Some ETFs will sit on the DTCC for months or years at a time before gaining approval to trade, while some simply never launch. However, given BlackRock’s influence, expectations are the company is doing this in preparation for approval.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

Following The Bitcoin Price Growth Trend

The Bitcoin price increase has been mostly an ‘up-only’ trend with some pits and stops along the way. In the last 24 hours, the digital asset is already up over 14% with other metrics following swiftly behind such as market cap and daily trading volume.

Bitcoin’s daily trading volume jumped over 257% since the rally began, currently sitting at $44.7 billion. Likewise, the Bitcoin open interest has seen a 6.36% increase across all exchanges, bringing total open interest to $15.05 billion at the time of writing.

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has also jumped to a six-month high, flashing a very greedy 66. This means that investors are more willing to jump into the digital asset and the evidence of this is in its rising daily trading volumes, as mentioned above.

The Bitcoin price has since retraced from the $35,000 level but continues to trade just above $34,500 where the bulls seem to have established support. A successful retest of the $35,000 resistance would set the Bitcoin price on a path to $40,000.