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Bitcoin Price Surges Towards $61,000, Eyeing Potential Breakout To $67-$68k Range

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in the market, has experienced a notable resurgence in its bullish momentum, with the Bitcoin price reclaiming the crucial $61,000 threshold. 

This recovery follows a week-long downtrend that led to a 20% drop to $56,000 on Wednesday. As the bullish momentum returns, the possibility of further testing upper resistance levels and reclaiming previously lost price levels grows stronger.

Bitcoin Bulls Eye $68,000

According to market expert Justin Bennett, a recovery of the $61,000 resistance level would open up potential areas such as $67,000 to $68,000. However, at the present moment, this level continues to pose a significant resistance.

Analyzing the recent correction in the Bitcoin price, analyst Crypto Con suggests that the market correction was necessary for the long-term price trajectory. 

The full retest of the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support at $56,700 and the return to indicator support zones, such as the Directional Movement Index, indicate a healthy price consolidation.

In addition to the technical indicators, on-chain and market data analytics firm CryptoQuant’s founder and CEO, Ki Young Ju, highlights the current bullish sentiment. 

Bitcoin price

According to their data, whales accumulated a significant amount of Bitcoin, totaling 47,000 BTC, within the past 24 hours. This increased accumulation by large investors further bolsters the positive outlook for Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Price Poised For Bullish Surge

Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has provided further bullish predictions for the Bitcoin price, suggesting that recent corrections have resulted in the grabbing of leverage longs liquidity. In addition, the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI)on the 5-day chart is on the verge of crossing into bullish territory. 

This occurrence has historically been followed by an upward price movement in Bitcoin, leading to higher highs. Such a pattern has the potential to fuel renewed investor confidence and attract further buying pressure.

Another positive signal highlighted by Titan of Crypto is the recent buy signal generated by the Supertrend indicator, as seen in the chart below. This technical tool helps identify trends in an asset’s price movement. 

Bitcoin Price

The buy signal, which occurred just three months ago, implies that Bitcoin may still have significant room for growth before reaching its cycle top. According to the analyst, historical data suggests that the average duration from the buy signal to the cycle top is approximately 19 months, indicating the potential for a sustained upward trend.

Bitcoin price

Currently trading at $61,600, Bitcoin has seen a significant increase of 4.7% in the last 24 hours alone. It remains to be seen if BTC will successfully break above resistance levels, while also challenging the ability of previously retested support levels to withstand potential future downtrends.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF Readies For Stellar Debut, Expected To Outshine $125M US Launch

The eagerly anticipated Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF market is scheduled to commence trading on Tuesday, marking a significant milestone in the increasing adoption of the leading cryptocurrency and building upon the success of the US ETF market. 

With their approval, the newly regulated index funds are poised for a noteworthy debut, surpassing the first-day inflows in the United States.

HK Bitcoin ETF Market Poised For Record-Breaking Debut

Zhu Haokang, the Digital Asset Management Supervisor and Family Wealth Supervisor at Warsaw Fund expressed great confidence in the trading volume of Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs on its inaugural day.

This volume exceeded the scale achieved during the US launch on January 10th of this year, which amounted to over 125 million US dollars. 

Haokang further stated that Huaxia, one of the three ETF issuers, is confident in becoming the largest ETF issuer on the first day of trading. At the same time, OSL, a digital asset platform, has already completed the initial fundraising with two funds, including Huaxia. 

Furthermore, the capital inflow during the Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETF’s first-day listing transaction has surpassed that of the US spot ETF market. 

According to Haokang, this difference can be attributed to two factors: the purchase and redemption of spot and in-kind transactions, which are unavailable in the US spot Bitcoin ETF.

Unprecedented Investment Options

One unique aspect of the China Summer Fund’s Hong Kong spot ETF is its incorporation of Hong Kong dollars, US dollars, and dual counter offers (RMB counters), distinguishing it from the other two offerings. 

Additionally, the fund features a non-listed share alongside the listed share, further setting it apart from its counterparts. Given the physical purchase method, investors, including Bitcoin miners, can directly acquire the Hong Kong virtual asset spot ETF using the Bitcoin they already hold. 

Moreover, outreach efforts have reportedly been made to attract investors from countries and regions without ETF offerings, such as Singapore and the Middle East, generating significant interest.

Despite the substantial market size of the current US spot Bitcoin ETF market, Hong Kong’s utilization of cash and in-kind subscriptions, coupled with the appeal of open trading during Asian market hours, is expected to attract numerous American investors, according to Haokang. 

Mainland Chinese Investors Restricted

Wayne Huang, OSL ETF and Trusteeship Business Manager, highlighted that Victory Securities could facilitate physical purchases, and the winning securities in China can also leverage OSL’s support. 

Three vouchers enable physical purchases, with more expected to follow suit. Following the ETF’s listing, various voucher chambers of commerce are likely to participate, increasing the overall ecosystem of the Bitcoin ETF market in May.

On the other hand, Zhu Haokang also clarified that mainland Chinese investors are currently restricted from investing in Hong Kong’s spot ETF market. However, qualified investors, institutional investors, retail investors, and qualified international investors in Hong Kong can participate in the spot ETF race. 

Individuals seeking further details are advised to consult voucher providers and sales channels while closely monitoring potential regulatory adjustments and the development of a specific regulatory framework in the future.

Bitcoin ETF

Currently, BTC is trading at $63,000 after failing to consolidate above the key $66,000 level in recent days. However, the launch of the ETF market in Hong Kong is expected to significantly impact the price of BTC in the long run. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Timing The Breakout: When Will Bitcoin Escape The Post-Halving Consolidation?

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in the market, has been trading within a re-accumulation range between the $59,000 and $70,000 price levels for the past month and a half. 

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently shared its perspective on this phase and its potential duration, drawing from historical patterns and data in a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter).

Breakout Timing And Historical Patterns

According to Rekt’s analysis, Bitcoin tends to experience a re-accumulation range following the Halving event, which occurs every four years to counteract any inflationary effect on Bitcoin by lowering the reward amount for miners and maintaining scarcity. 

Historically, This consolidation phase lasts up to 150 days before Bitcoin breaks into a parabolic uptrend. Based on this pattern, if Bitcoin continues to consolidate for the next 150 days, Rekt suggests a breakout would be expected in September 2024.

The ideal duration of a re-accumulation range is crucial in determining Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Rekt Capital noted that when Bitcoin reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 in mid-March, it accelerated its cycle by 260 days. However, with over 49 days of consolidation, the acceleration has reduced to approximately 210 days.

Resetting The Bitcoin Halving Cycle

Repeating historical trends, where Bitcoin consolidates for 150 days after the Halving, would still indicate an acceleration in the current cycle, albeit by a lesser extent of 60 days. 

Nevertheless, Rekt contends that Bitcoin would ideally need to consolidate for at least 210 days to fully resynchronize with its historical Halving cycles and reset the current acceleration in this cycle to 0. This would bring the rate of acceleration to 0 days and potentially lead to a breakout around November 2024.

The analyst further suggested that to achieve a 200+ day post-Halving consolidation and fully resynchronize with historical Halving cycles, Bitcoin would need to replicate its mid-2023 re-accumulation range, which lasted 224 days before a new uptrend emerged. Rekt concluded:

Overall, how long this current Re-Accumulation Range will last will dictate the remaining acceleration in this cycle and ultimately influence where Bitcoin will finally peak in its Bull Market. 

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization of $1.2 billion, is currently trading at $64,400, showing minimal fluctuations compared to Thursday’s price movements. 

Recently, Bitcoin has encountered resistance at the $66,000 level, hindering its ability to consolidate above this threshold. Conversely, the $63,400 level may serve as a support base for the cryptocurrency in the event of heightened downward volatility over the weekend.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Vertex AI Price Forecast: Bitcoin Has 60% Chance Of Hitting $100,000, Key Predictions Unveiled

On-chain analytics firm Spot On Chain’s team of analysts, using Google Cloud’s Vertex artificial intelligence (AI), has conducted an in-depth analysis to forecast the future price of Bitcoin (BTC). 

Their latest report provides valuable insights into the leading cryptocurrency’s short-, medium-, and long-term outlook.

Bitcoin Price Forecasts

According to Spot On Chain’s report, Bitcoin prices are expected to fluctuate between $56,000 and $70,000 during May, June, and July 2024. 

This projected range indicates the potential for market volatility, with a 48% probability assigned to the scenario where BTC prices may dip below $60,000. Moreover, the report advises a cautious approach, acknowledging the possibility of short-term fluctuations or corrections in the price.

Spot On Chain’s analysis reveals a significant movement in the latter half of 2024, with a compelling 63% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000. 

This mid-term projection reflects a prevailing bullish sentiment in the market, further fueled by anticipated rate cuts after the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) December 2023 meeting. 

These rate cuts aim to bring the federal funds rate down to 4.6% and are expected to boost demand for risk-on assets such as stocks and Bitcoin.

Looking ahead to the first half of 2025, Spot On Chain’s modeling indicates a strong probability that Bitcoin will cross the $150,000 threshold. Specifically, a 42% probability is assigned to this scenario, indicating a bullish outlook for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

What’s more, looking at the entire year of 2025, the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $150,000 rises to an eye-popping 70%. Based on historical data and patterns in previous cycles, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high approximately 6 to 12 months after the Halving event. 

Price Consolidation On The Horizon?

Crypto analyst Retk Capital has also provided insights into the current Bitcoin price action, shedding light on key resistance levels and the potential for a consolidation phase before an anticipated parabolic upside.

According to Retk Capital’s analysis, Bitcoin has consistently been rejected from the $65,600 resistance level, failing to regain it as a support level. 

This resistance zone has significantly impeded Bitcoin’s upward movement in recent days, as seen on the cryptocurrency’s daily BTC/USD chart below. 

Bitcoin

Retk Capital further highlights that Bitcoin has been witnessing downside wicks into a pool of liquidity at approximately $60,600. This occurrence has been observed over multiple weeks, indicating the presence of buyers in that price range. 

If Bitcoin experiences further downward movement, the analyst believes that there is a possibility that it may approach this area once again. The analyst further notes:

Price dropping without context can be emotionally challenging. However, understanding that this downside is part of the consolation within a technical range-bound structure that will precede Parabolic Upside makes this experience much more comforting.

As of this writing, BTC is trading at $63,900, down nearly 8% over the past two weeks and the same percentage over the past 30 days.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitwise CIO Unveils 5 Major Forecasts For Bitcoin 2028 Halving, Anticipates A 280% Price Surge

Bitwise Chief Information Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan recently shared five interesting predictions for the next Halving of the Bitcoin (BTC) network, scheduled for 2028. In a comprehensive report, Hougan sheds light on the potential transformations for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

New Investors And ETFs As Catalysts

One of Hougan’s key predictions is that Bitcoin’s volatility will significantly decline by 50%. He argues that the entry of new investors through the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market will drive this decline. 

Hougan said that as financial advisors, family offices, and institutions enter the Bitcoin market, their different investment behaviors – such as portfolio rebalancing and steady drip investments – could introduce counter-cyclical flows, ultimately dampening Bitcoin’s volatility.

Hougan’s second prediction revolves around the allocation of Bitcoin in portfolios. He believes that 5% allocations to Bitcoin will become commonplace in target-date portfolios. As BTC’s volatility decreases and becomes more attractive to institutional investors, Hougan expects a rise in typical portfolio allocations. 

The Bitwise CIO predicts that Bitcoin ETFs will attract over $200 billion in inflows. He highlights their impressive growth and cites their status as the fastest-growing new ETF category of all time. 

Hougan suggests that the ETF market is still in its early stages, with national wirehouses and institutions just beginning their due diligence. Drawing parallels with the rise of gold ETFs, which experienced year-after-year growth in net flows, he anticipates a similar trend for Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin Price Path Toward $250,000

In an intriguing projection, Hougan suggests that central banks will allocate funds to Bitcoin before the next Halving event. He notes that central banks have historically been significant investors in gold, accumulating substantial amounts of the metal. 

However, with Bitcoin’s characteristics as non-debt money and its functional advantages over gold regarding payments and settlement, Hougan believes central banks will be increasingly drawn to Bitcoin. Hougan further noted on this matter:

There is also an element of game theory here. A major central bank adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset would be a game-changer for Bitcoin and, I believe, would contribute to a dramatic increase in prices. Will one central bank try to front-run the others? 

Hougan’s final prediction revolves around Bitcoin’s price. He forecasts that Bitcoin will trade above $250,000 by 2028, an increase of nearly 280% from current levels. 

The Bitwise CIO attributes Bitcoin’s previous exponential growth to its transition from a speculative asset to one with real-world utility. 

Factors such as declining volatility, improved custody options, low correlations to traditional stocks, enhanced accessibility through ETFs, and growing institutional adoption all contribute to Hougan’s optimism regarding Bitcoin’s future progress. Hougan concluded by stating:

With the ETFs launched and gathering assets—and major Wall Street firms lining up behind bitcoin—I suspect the asset will continue to move further into the mainstream. At $250,000, bitcoin would be a $5 trillion asset. Could it go higher? Of course. But $250,000 would represent solid progress between halvings, and I think we’ll see at least that.

Bitcoin

Currently trading at $64,500, BTC is down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours after retesting the $67,000 mark on Tuesday and failing to consolidate above that level.  

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Market Expert Predicts New Paradigm For Bitcoin: ‘Days Under $100,000 Numbered’

As the Bitcoin (BTC) Halving event concluded for the fourth time, the cryptocurrency market witnessed notable changes in key metrics. 

These developments have led Charles Edwards, a market expert and founder of Capriole Invest, to issue bold predictions that hint at a paradigm shift in the BTC market. 

Bitcoin Trading At ‘Deep Discount’

One of the key metrics highlighted by Edwards is the staggering electrical cost associated with mining a single Bitcoin. Edwards reveals that this cost has now reached an astonishing $77,4000. This figure represents the raw electricity expenses required to power the Bitcoin network for every newly mined BTC.

Another significant metric that Edwards draws attention to is the Bitcoin Miner Price, which soared to $244,000 on Saturday. This metric encompasses the block reward and fees miners receive for every Bitcoin they successfully mine. 

Notably, this surge in miner price coincided with transaction fees skyrocketing to $230, marking a four-fold increase compared to the previous all-time high of $68 set in 2021.

Bitcoin

Considering the metrics above, Edwards suggests that BTC currently trades at a “deep discount.”  This is because BTC’s price is lower than the electrical costs of mining it.

Typically, this situation only lasts for a few days every four years, suggesting that the price will only take a short time to catch up and surpass this price level, which is slightly below BTC’s all-time high (ATH) of $73,7000, reached on March 14th. 

Edwards outlines three possible outcomes in the wake of these developments. First, he anticipates a scenario in which the price of Bitcoin experiences a significant surge. 

Secondly, there is a likelihood that approximately 15% of miners may be forced to shut down due to unfavorable economics. Finally, Edwards suggests that average transaction fees are expected to remain substantially higher.

Based on the analysis of these metrics and the potential scenarios, Edwards boldly predicts that Bitcoin’s days under the $100,000 mark are “numbered.” While it remains to be seen which of the three outcomes will prevail, Edwards expects a combination of all three factors to contribute to Bitcoin’s price appreciation.

Optimal Buying Opportunity? 

Bitcoin has demonstrated significant price consolidation above the $60,000 mark since Friday, following temporary drops below this threshold amid mounting anticipation for the Halving event. 

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently analyzed Bitcoin’s current price state, suggesting that a potential bottom may have formed above these levels, increasing the likelihood of surpassing upper resistance levels shortly.

According to Ali Martinez’s analysis, Bitcoin strives to establish the $66,000 price level as a crucial support zone. Data reveals that approximately 1.54 million addresses collectively purchased 747,000 BTC at this level. If Bitcoin successfully secures this support, it may pave the way for further upward movement.

Martinez identifies Bitcoin’s next critical resistance levels, between $69,900 and $71,200. These levels represent significant price barriers for BTC bulls, and Bitcoin may encounter selling pressure at these levels. 

In addition, the analyst points out that the Bitcoin MVRV ratio, a metric that compares the market value of Bitcoin to its realized value, has shown a promising pattern, as seen in the chart below. 

Bitcoin

Martinez highlights that whenever the MVRV ratio falls below its 90-day average since November 2022, it historically indicates an optimal buying opportunity for Bitcoin. Interestingly, such buying opportunities have resulted in average gains of approximately 67%.

According to Martinez, based on current market conditions and an analysis of the MVRV ratio, now may be an opportune time to consider buying Bitcoin. The historical data and the potential for significant price appreciation support this view. 

Bitcoin

BTC is trading at $66,100, up 1.6% in the past 24 hours. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Halving: Anticipating Price Impact, Miner Challenges, And Long-Term Outlook

The highly anticipated Bitcoin Halving event is close, bringing with it heightened expectations regarding the long-term impact on the Bitcoin price. 

There are concerns, however, that this quadrennial event may already be priced in, as Bitcoin recently reached an unprecedented all-time high of $73,700 on March 14.

This surge broke the pattern of previous Halvings, where Bitcoin had never surpassed its previous ATH before the event. However, historical data reveals significant price increases in the year following previous Halvings.

Experts Predict Delayed Bitcoin Halving Price Impact

Analysts argue that the compounding impact of reduced issuance takes several months to materialize, suggesting that the Halving itself may not prompt a significant rally before or immediately after the event. 

Deutsche Bank analysts share this sentiment, highlighting that substantial price increases have typically occurred in the run-up to previous Halvings rather than immediately after them.

Another factor to consider is the increased production costs for Bitcoin miners resulting from the Halving. As the mining reward decreases, participating in the mining process becomes less profitable. 

This has historically led to a decline in the hashrate, the total computational power used for Bitcoin mining. JPMorgan analysts predict that production costs could rise to an average of $42,000 after the Halving.

One JPMorgan analyst wrote, “This estimate is also the level we envisage Bitcoin prices drifting towards once Bitcoin-Halving-induced euphoria subsides after April.”

While these factors may influence short-term price movement, historical data reveals that the price of Bitcoin has experienced significant increases in the year following previous Halvings. 

The respective price gains for the three previous halvings were 8,760%, 2,570%, and 594%. However, it’s important to note that each successive halving has a diminishing impact on the new supply of Bitcoin.

Mining Industry Shake-Up

In the mining sector, Halving could lead to significant revenue losses, estimated to be around $10 billion annually. 

According to Fortune, publicly traded miners have taken measures to increase their resilience, diversify their offerings, and optimize their operations. However, mining stocks have faced challenges, with some experiencing significant declines.

While larger miners may undergo a period of adjustment, smaller miners and pools may be pushed offline. This could result in a wider market share for the surviving miners. 

Experts at private asset management firm Bernstein expect the mining industry to consolidate, with “smaller and less efficient players” potentially selling assets to raise capital and shore up their balance sheets. 

The increased market dominance of the surviving miners is expected to be profitable over the long term, especially with the continued structural demand for Bitcoin from ETFs.

Timing The Bitcoin Bull Market Peak

Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital has provided insights into the potential timing of Bitcoin’s bull market peak based on historical Halving cycles and the current acceleration seen in the market. 

According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has traditionally reached its peak in the bull market approximately 518-546 days after the Halving event.

However, the current cycle has shown signs of unprecedented acceleration, with Bitcoin surpassing previous all-time highs roughly 260 days ahead of historical norms. Nonetheless, the recent “pre-Halving retrace” has slowed down the cycle by around 30 days and counting.

Taking into account this accelerated perspective, if Bitcoin’s bull market peak is measured from the moment it breaks its old all-time high, it may occur 266-315 days later. As Bitcoin achieved new all-time highs in March, this suggests a potential bull market peak in December 2024 or February 2025, according to Rekt’s analysis.

Both perspectives carry significance throughout the cycle, especially if the acceleration trend persists. However, prolonged retracements or consolidation periods can slow down the cycle, potentially pushing the anticipated bull market peak further into the future.

Bitcoin Halving

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $64,300, up from the $59,000 mark reached in the early hours of Friday.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Pre-Halving Jitters: Bitcoin Price Briefly Slips Below $60,000

The Bitcoin price has recently experienced heightened volatility, causing the largest cryptocurrency in the market to briefly drop below the significant threshold of $60,000 for the first time since March 5. 

This price decrease comes just days before the highly anticipated Halving event scheduled for Friday. This event has traditionally been viewed as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin’s value due to its impact on token supply. 

However, market participants are questioning whether the Halving’s effects are already factored into the current market conditions, leading to extended bearish sentiment.

Long-Term Bullish Outlook Prevails

Bitcoin’s decline saw it plummet by 5% to $59,890, though it recovered some losses shortly afterward. Since reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 on March 14, the Bitcoin price has now retraced by approximately 18%. 

The downward trend extended to other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE), which also experienced slumps on Wednesday.

The impending Halving, a quadrennial code update in Bitcoin, has raised concerns among investors as to whether it will be a significant market-moving event or a non-event overshadowed by other factors, such as the ongoing discussions surrounding the Bitcoin ETF market, which has seen a significant decrease in terms of outflows.  

Nathanaël Cohen, co-founder of INDIGO Fund, noted that market participants are de-risking due to this uncertainty and the additional macro factor of tensions in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran, putting further pressure on risk assets.

The recent decline in Bitcoin’s price was further exacerbated by a wave of liquidations in long positions for digital assets. Last Friday alone, approximately $780 million worth of bullish crypto wagers were liquidated within 24 hours. 

Despite the recent market turbulence, some participants maintain a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Some see the recent liquidations and subsequent flushing out of leverage in the crypto market as a positive development. 

Ravi Doshi, head of markets at FalconX, reported increased buying of longer-dated call options on their derivatives desk, suggesting that clients anticipate higher prices in the latter half of the year.

Bitcoin Price Rebounds Above $61,000

Following the brief dip below the $60,000 mark, the Bitcoin price has rebounded, currently trading at $61,600. This recovery is viewed as a bullish sign, with the cryptocurrency’s macro uptrend structure remaining intact as long as price levels of $51,000 and $42,000 are maintained. 

Bitcoin price

The market is closely watching whether the theory suggesting that the Halving price catalyst is already factored into the current market conditions holds. Additionally, the performance of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States and their potential impact on driving the cryptocurrency’s price back to previous highs are of significant interest.

Furthermore, the recent approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF market in Hong Kong is expected to contribute to increased adoption of the leading cryptocurrency. Although some experts do not consider it as significant as the US ETF market, it is anticipated to generate a surge in price and further strengthen Bitcoin’s position.

Ultimately, the outcome of the Halving event, combined with the developments in both the US and Hong Kong ETF markets, remains uncertain. The ability of Bitcoin to regain its bullish momentum and drive increased demand will be closely monitored.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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The $86,500 Bitcoin Question: Will The Halving Spark A Price Surge This April?

The cryptocurrency market has undergone a substantial downturn, with many of the top 100 cryptocurrencies experiencing sharp price drops. Bitcoin, the leading digital asset, hit a low of $61,600 on Tuesday. 

However, industry experts suggest a potential rebound to higher highs may be on the horizon as the highly anticipated Halving event draws near. 

Adrian Zduńczyk, a crypto trader and technical analyst, provides valuable insights into the market dynamics, highlighting key factors such as bull market indicators, ETFs, and the imminent Halving event.

Mixed Signals For BTC

According to Zduńczyk’s analysis, the market exhibits bullish signs, with the 200-week and 50-week moving averages (MAs) at $33,700  and $39,900, respectively. 

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio is 0.55, indicating a favorable trading environment. Additionally, the 7-week correlation with the S&P 500 (SPX) remains firm at 0.71. 

In terms of daily trends, Zduńczyk notes that Bitcoin is currently in a choppy range between $59,000 and $74,000, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rising at $46,600 and the 200-day Bitcoin Production Cost (BPRO) rising at $57,700. 

However, the analyst notes that the medium-term momentum is declining, and the 50-day Average True Range (ATR) volatility has increased to $3270. This suggests that Bitcoin’s overall price trend is losing strength or momentum in the medium-term timeframe.

Bitcoin Aims For $86,500

Zduńczyk highlights the market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is at 65, indicating a state of greed among market participants. The analyst notes that the current phase of the market cycle is characterized by belief. 

Moreover, miners are still profitable at prices above $41,800, and as mining difficulty rises post-Halving, a price spike is expected. 

Notably, previous Halving events have triggered substantial price rallies, with Bitcoin experiencing significant gains of 90X, 30X, and 7X. Importantly, Bitcoin has never returned to Halving prices after these rallies.

Examining seasonality trends, the monthly opening price for April stands at $71,000, suggesting a positive outlook for the month. The average gain for April is estimated at 21.95%, implying an end-of-month target of $86,500, according to Zduńczyk. 

Moreover, the period from April 16 to 30 has historically seen average gains of 14.69%, further reinforcing positive expectations and further price gains for BTC during the upcoming weeks. According to Zduńczyk, this timeframe could attract investors seeking to buy the dip. 

Bitcoin

Despite the overall positive outlook, BTC is trading at $62,600, reflecting a consistent decline over the past month. In the last 30 days, BTC has experienced a 9% drop from its mid-March all-time high of $73,700.

Moreover, in its quest for new highs and surpassing the $80,000 threshold, BTC has encountered a significant obstacle at the $70,000 level. Despite surpassing its all-time high, BTC has struggled to consolidate above this level for over a week.

Nonetheless, as emphasized by Zduńczyk, the potential synergy between the success of the ETF market in the United States and the upcoming Halving event may hold the key to revitalizing BTC’s price trajectory. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Increased Bitcoin ETF Adoption Propels BTC Dominance To Highest Level Since 2021

Bitcoin’s dominance within the cryptocurrency market has reached a three-year high, signaling strong demand for US spot Bitcoin ETF holding the largest digital asset and a challenging period for smaller tokens.

Bitcoin accounted for nearly 55% of the $2.4 trillion digital asset market at the end of last week, a level not seen since April 2021. On Saturday, in particular, BTC’s dominance jumped to 57% as it briefly touched the $67,000 mark. 

The next largest tokens by market share include Ethereum (ETH), Tether’s USDT stablecoin, Binance exchange’s native token Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL).

BTC’s Rise Fueled By Successful US Bitcoin ETF Launches

According to Bloomberg, the recent success of the recently approved US spot Bitcoin ETFs from prominent issuers such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments has played a significant role in Bitcoin’s rise. 

These ETFs have garnered approximately $56 billion in assets, making their debut one of the most successful in fund category history.

Bitcoin

The inflows into these ETFs drove BTC to its current all-time high (ATH) of $73,798 in mid-March, a clear resistance level for the largest cryptocurrency on the market, as evidenced by its inability to consolidate above the $70,000 level following this achievement. 

Although BTC is down about 6% since then, smaller digital assets such as Avalanche (AVAX), Polkadot (DOT), and Chainlink (LINK) have seen more significant declines of nearly 30% over the past month. 

This drop coincided with reduced expectations for looser US monetary policy settings, often fueling speculative gains.

Hong Kong-Listed ETFs Boosts Bitcoin And Ethereum

Institutional investors’ allocations to the US Bitcoin ETF have greatly influenced Bitcoin’s performance relative to the rest of the market. Benjamin Celermajer, director of digital-asset investment at Magnet Capital, noted that strong institutional demand is a key driver.

On Monday, Bitcoin and Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, saw notable price jumps following indications that asset managers are preparing to launch Hong Kong-listed ETFs on both tokens. Bitcoin rose 4.3% to $66,575, while ETH jumped 6.2% to $3,260. 

These rallies had a positive impact on the broader crypto market, lifting other notable tokens such as Polygon (MATIC), Cardano (ADA), the dog-themed meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana, which is now the top 5 cryptocurrency market winner, up over 8% on Monday.

Interestingly, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, which measures the performance of the largest digital assets traded in US dollars, has more than tripled since the beginning of last year, marking a significant rebound from the bear market experienced in 2022.

Lastly, investors and traders eagerly anticipate the upcoming Bitcoin Halving, an event that will cut the new supply of the token in half, expected around April 20th. 

Previous Halving events have acted as a tailwind for prices, although there are growing doubts about whether history will repeat itself given BTC’s recent all-time high achievement. 

Bitcoin ETF

BTC has successfully maintained its position above the $66,000 threshold and has consolidated in this range. However, it is important to note that losses have accumulated over longer time frames. 

Over the past fourteen and thirty days of trading, the cryptocurrency has experienced significant declines of over 21% and 24% respectively.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Is The Bull Run Nearing its End? Marathon CEO Asserts Bitcoin ‘Halving’ Rally Already Priced In

In anticipation of the upcoming Bitcoin Halving event, which is expected to occur later this month, Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel believes that the price impact may already be factored into the market to a certain extent. 

Thiel shared his insights in a recent interview with Bloomberg, in which he discussed the potential catalysts for further price increases and their implications for the mining industry.

Bitcoin Halving Impact Mitigated By ETF Surge? 

The “halving” event, a software code update that occurs approximately every four years, is often regarded as a key driver of Bitcoin’s price appreciation. The update will reduce the block reward for miners by half, meaning they will receive fewer Bitcoins as a reward for validating transactions on the blockchain. 

However, Thiel noted that the impact of The Halving may not be as significant this time, as the recent approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has already attracted substantial capital to the market. Thiel explained: 

The ETF approval, which has been a huge success, has attracted capital into the market and essentially brought forward what could have been the price appreciation we typically would have seen three to six months post-halving. So I think we are seeing part of that now already and that has put forward some of the demand.

While the halving event is expected to reduce the daily supply of new Bitcoins by approximately 450, Thiel believes the price impact may be relatively modest. 

However, the Marathon CEO expressed excitement about the positive price trend leading up to the halving, stating: 

As miners, we are very excited to go into a halving, where for once prices have not declined prior to the halving rather prices have gone up so everybody is obviously maximizing to that.

Balancing ETF Inflows And Previous Halving Patterns

Thiel’s observations come amidst the noteworthy inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which have amassed nearly $12 billion in just three months of trading in the United States. 

While these inflows may have contributed to the current price appreciation, historical data reveals that Bitcoin still possesses considerable growth potential leading up to The Halving.

To gain a comprehensive understanding, it is crucial to examine the recent surge in Bitcoin’s value, which has soared by nearly 370% from its bear market low of $15,400 to an all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 on March 14, 2024. 

In conjunction with this surge, past halving events provide valuable insights into Bitcoin’s price movements and the likelihood of surpassing the significant milestone of $100,000.

During the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin’s price experienced a remarkable surge from a low of $13 to a peak of $1,152 the following year, illustrating an impressive increase of 8,753%. 

Similarly, the second halving event in July 2016 witnessed Bitcoin’s price ascending from $664 to a new ATH of $17,760, reflecting a surge of 2,580% after the halving. 

The most recent Halving event in May 2020 saw Bitcoin’s price reach a significant milestone of $67,000, surging from a low of $9,730, which accounted for a substantial increase of 593% following the halving.

In perspective, while the potential scenario outlined by Thiel suggests that The Halving may be partially priced in due to the influence of ETF inflows, historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin still has plenty of room to run before the event. 

Several market pundits have also set their price targets for this bull run at the coveted $100,000 level in light of the upcoming halving event.

However, it remains to be seen how the price of Bitcoin will react, taking into account factors such as the influx of capital through ETFs, historical data, and potential market dynamics.

Bitcoin halving

Currently, BTC is trading at $68,400, down 0.4% from yesterday’s price. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Ethena’s (ENA) Crucial Role In Bitcoin Bull Market: Expert Identifies Critical Factors For Sustainable Growth

The recent volatility in the Bitcoin (BTC) price and its struggle to consolidate above the $70,000 mark has raised questions about the sustainability of its ongoing bull run.

However, market expert Charles Edwards, co-founder of Capriole Invest, believes that the decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Ethena Labs (ENA) could significantly extend and boost Bitcoin’s bull market to new heights. 

In a recent post on social media site X (formerly Twitter), Edwards suggested that Ethena’s actions, such as constraining over-leverage in derivatives markets and reducing spot supply, can propel Bitcoin’s price higher for a longer period.

Bitcoin Bull Market Boost

To provide further context as to why Edwards is suggesting this possibility, on April 4th, Ethena Labs announced its intention to engage in a cash-and-carry trade involving Bitcoin. 

According to the protocol’s announcement, Ethena Labs can manage risk and provide a more stable backing for its product by buying and shorting Bitcoin. 

One of the key factors Edwards highlights is Ethena’s ability to constrain over-leverage in Bitcoin derivatives markets. By doing so, Ethena aims to prevent excessive risk-taking and potential market instability. 

Additionally, Ethena’s taking spot supply off the market can reduce selling pressure, thus supporting Bitcoin’s price and prolonging the bull market.

The protocol also noted that Bitcoin derivative markets offer superior scalability and liquidity compared to Ethereum (ETH). This characteristic reportedly makes Bitcoin a suitable asset for delta hedging, a risk management strategy employed by Ethena. 

With $25 billion of Bitcoin open interest available for Ethena to delta hedge, the capacity for its synthetic dollar product, USDe, to scale has increased significantly. Ethena Labs noted in their announcement the following:

In just 1 year, BTC open interest on major exchanges (exc. CME) has grown from $10bn to $25bn, while ETH OI has grown from $5 to $10bn BTC derivative markets are growing at a faster pace than ETH and offer better scalability and liquidity for delta hedging

Weighing The Risks

While Edwards’ statement is optimistic about Ethena’s impact on Bitcoin’s bull market, one user raised concerns about potential downsides. Edwards acknowledges that execution risks, such as custody failure or delta neutrality failure, could have adverse effects. 

Edwards identifies custody risk as the most significant risk in this context. However, he highlights that any negative impacts will likely be short-lived, and market forces will ultimately dictate Ethena’s net annual percentage yield (APY).

In short, by limiting over-leveraging in future markets and reducing spot supply, Ethena could significantly support the price of BTC and extend the current bull run.

Bitcoin

Currently, BTC’s price has experienced a significant decline, plummeting to the $68,800 level. This marks a 4.3% decrease compared to Monday’s price.

In parallel, Ethena’s native token, ENA, has also followed the overall downtrend of the market, reflecting BTC’s price movement with a 4% decrease. Presently, ENA is trading at $1.22.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin Q1 Performance Digest: 70% Price Surge, Inflows Into ETFs, And Expansion Of Layer TVL Revealed

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown an impressive performance in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024, as highlighted in a recent report by market intelligence data research firm Messari. The research firm finds key factors contributing to Bitcoin’s price increase, market cap dominance, and the emergence of new trends in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Inscription Activities Drive Bitcoin Fees Up

Analyzing the key figures detailed in the report, Bitcoin’s price experienced a significant increase in Q1 2024, rising 68.78% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) to reach an all-time high (ATH) of $73,100. 

This price increase propelled Bitcoin’s market cap dominance to 49.7% in March 2024. Interestingly, the research firm notes that such dominance is a typical feature at the start of a new halving cycle, with Bitcoin often leading the way for other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin

Another relevant figure is the inscription activity in Q4 2023, which drove fees up by 699.4% QoQ. However, in Q1 2024, subscription-related fees decreased by 41.9%. Despite declining total fees, inscription-related transactions still accounted for 18.4% of Bitcoin’s total fees, demonstrating their continued relevance.

Average daily transactions and daily active addresses also experienced a decline of 15.3% and 4.7% QoQ, respectively. The report suggests that the decline in transaction activity may be attributed to decreased activity from bots or “super users.” This shift aligns with the decrease in inscription-related activities and fees. 

Inscription-related activity initially surged in February 2023, leading to a considerable transaction increase. Although Q1 2024 witnessed a decline in inscription-related activity QoQ, it remained significantly higher year-over-year (YoY), indicating its continued impact on the network. 

ETFs Amassed 212,000 BTC In Q1

Messari highlights that Q1 2024 showed the growth of programmable layers in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Established layers such as Rootstock and Stacks led the way regarding total value locked (TVL), while newer layers such as BOB and Merlin experienced rapid growth. 

TVL’s 127% QoQ growth was primarily in non-BTC assets, as Bitcoin-locked amounts lagged behind the Lightning Network and alt-L1 networks, which host significant amounts of BTC.

Ultimately, the approval and launch of nine spot ETFs and one ETF conversion marked a significant milestone for Bitcoin’s legitimization by the US government and traditional finance (TradFi). 

The report notes that these ETFs garnered over $12 billion in inflows within the first month. Notably, BTC ETFs surpassed silver ETFs in assets under management (AUM) but still lagged behind gold ETFs. 

Bitcoin

Institutional BTC holdings were also surpassed by MicroStrategy, the largest institutional holder, with 215,000 BTC. The ETFs accumulated 212,000 BTC in inflows during Q1, further establishing Bitcoin’s prominence in the financial markets.

Bitcoin’s exceptional performance in Q1 2024, marked by a significant price increase and market cap dominance, has solidified its position as the leading cryptocurrency. 

Anticipation for the supply halving, along with the success of BTC ETFs and institutional inflows, has contributed to Bitcoin’s growth and recognition in traditional finance. 

Bitcoin

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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FOMO Gives Way To Fear: Bitcoin-Ethereum Ratio Signals Shift In Crypto Sentiment

The recent ratio between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices suggests a potential decline in risk appetite within the crypto market. The ratio has reached its highest level since April 2021, indicating a stronger demand for Bitcoin than its smaller rival, Ethereum.

This development has led crypto asset trading firm QCP Capital to speculate that this shift in the ratio could be an early indication of a transition from “fear of missing out” (FOMO) to outright fear. 

Bitcoin And Ethereum Performance

Regarding recent market trends, the second quarter of 2024 has begun with relatively subdued activity. Bitcoin’s price has dipped below the $70,000 mark and has remained range-bound between $65,000 and $68,000 for the past few days despite briefly touching the $70,000 mark on Monday. 

According to QCP’s analysis, the inflow of funds into the spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) market has not been substantial enough to drive significant price movements in either direction. 

As a result, the company has observed that funding rates have stabilized, and the front end of the forward curve has declined from previous highs of 50% to less than 20% currently.

Interestingly, while the front end of the forward curve has decreased, the back end remains elevated. This has led to interest in rolling spot-forward basis positions further out, potentially driven by the continued demand for long-dated Bitcoin calls extending into 2025.

Bitcoin

On the other hand, Ethereum’s performance has been relatively weak. QCP also notes that the ETHBTC ratio cross-tests a critical support level after breaking below 0.05. Notably, there has been sustained selling of Ethereum calls, resulting in lower volatility and downward pressure on the price.

Ultimately, QCP finds that these developments are prompting speculation as to whether this could be an early sign of FOMO turning into fear, particularly about Ethereum’s role as a proxy for altcoins.

While Bitcoin may find support from topside demand and ETF inflows, Ethereum’s performance and its impact on altcoins will be important factors to watch closely.

Will BTC Experience A Double-Top?

Renowned crypto analyst Crypto Con has raised an intriguing question about whether BTC is poised for a double top similar to the patterns observed in 2013 and 2021.

Analyzing previous market cycles, Crypto Con highlights that more evident double tops, such as those witnessed in the first and third cycles of 2021, triggered significant initial surges on the Fisher Transform indicator. 

In contrast, the 2017 double-top formation showed a more subtle initial rise in June. Notably, all final cycle tops ended with a regular bearish divergence, where the price reached higher levels while the indicator declined, as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin

Currently, Bitcoin is approaching levels similar to those seen in 2017, as seen in the lower part of the chart. Crypto Con suggests that if the Fisher Transform indicator can consolidate around these levels without spiking to the line seen in 2013 and 2021, it could indicate a higher likelihood of a single top formation, which is the analyst’s most likely outcome, for December 2024, marking the top of this cycle.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin NFT Market Thrives, Franklin Templeton Remains Bullish, Binance Ends Support

Franklin Templeton’s digital assets division has released a note to its investors introducing Bitcoin-based non-fungible tokens (NFTs), highlighting a surge in activity within the Bitcoin ecosystem. 

The asset manager attributes this increased momentum to various factors, including the emergence of Bitcoin (BTC) NFTs called Ordinals, the development of new fungible standards like BRC-20 and Runes, the growth of Bitcoin Layer 2 (L2s) solutions, and the expansion of decentralized finance (DeFi) applications built on the Bitcoin network.

Bitcoin Ordinals Shine

According to the Bitcoin ETF issuer’s report, activity in the Bitcoin NFT space is gaining momentum. In particular, Ordinals have seen a significant increase in trading volume over the past few months. 

This growth is evident in Bitcoin’s dominance in terms of trading volume, which surpassed Ethereum (ETH) in December 2023, as shown in the accompanying chart. 

Bitcoin

In addition, several collections of Bitcoin Ordinals are emerging as dominant players in the NFT market, both in terms of trading volume and market capitalization. 

These collections include NodeMonkes, Runestone, and Bitcoin Puppets, which have an aggregate market cap of $353 million, $339 million, and $168 million, respectively. They are the most notable collections. 

In terms of trading volume over the past 30 days, the report shows that these three collections recorded trading volumes of $81 million, $85 million, and $38 million, respectively, over the past month. 

The asset manager further claimed that what distinguishes BTC Ordinals from NFTs on other blockchains, such as Ethereum or Solana, is that they contain raw data recorded directly on the Bitcoin blockchain. This feature contributes to the attractiveness and growing popularity of Bitcoin Ordinals, as evidenced by market cap and trading volume figures.

Franklin Templeton, known for its involvement in the ETF market, was one of the issuers that launched a spot BTC  ETF in the United States earlier this year. Its ETF, which trades under the ticker name “EZBC,” has seen total inflows of 281.8 million since its January 11 launch, according to BitMEX research data as of April 3. 

Despite its zero-fee structure, Franklin Templeton’s ETF has seen a significant difference in flows compared to the leading players in the newly approved ETF market, such as Blackrock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC), which have seen flows of over 14 billion and 7.7 billion, respectively.

Binance To Discontinue Support For BTC NFTs

In a recent blog post, crypto exchange Binance announced it would discontinue support for Bitcoin-based NFTs on its marketplace. Less than a year after their introduction, Binance will no longer facilitate airdrops, benefits, or utilities associated with BTC NFTs, citing a need to streamline its product offerings in the NFT space.

Binance states that users who own Bitcoin NFTs are advised to withdraw them from the Binance NFT marketplace via the Bitcoin network before May 18, 2024. 

Effective April 18, 2024, users can no longer purchase, deposit, bid, or list NFTs via the BTC network on the Binance NFT Marketplace. Any existing listing orders affected by this change will be automatically canceled simultaneously.

Bitcoin

Currently, BTC is trading at $68,300, up a modest 3% in the last 24 hours. It is approaching the significant milestone of $70,000, a level the cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain several times.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Price Plummets As US Government Transfers $2B In Seized Silk Road BTC, Coincidence?

The crypto market is abuzz with speculation as the US government recently moved significantly regarding seized Bitcoin (BTC) linked to the infamous Silk Road dark web marketplace. This development comes at a critical time for the Bitcoin price, which has struggled to maintain its position above the $70,000 threshold after hitting its current all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 on March 14. 

As the largest cryptocurrency experiences yet another round of price correction, the movement of these seized funds has triggered intense speculation about a potential sell-off by the US government.

Seized Silk Road BTC On The Move

According to on-chain data, a wallet linked to the US government recently transferred 30,175 Bitcoin, seized from the Silk Road dark web marketplace. 

This transfer follows the earlier seizure of over 50,000 Bitcoin from James Zhong, who illegally obtained the cryptocurrency from the Silk Road in 2012. The US Department of Justice’s (DOJ) seizure of these funds marked the largest cryptocurrency seizure in its history.

Bitcoin price

This is not the first instance of the US government moving Bitcoin obtained from criminal cases. In March 2022, the government sold 9,800 Bitcoin, with plans to sell an additional 41,500 BTC. However, the recent transfer of the 30,175 BTC from Silk Road-related addresses has raised questions about the fate of these funds and their potential impact on the Bitcoin price correction. 

Benjamin Skew, an on-chain data expert, took to social media to offer insights into the situation. Skew clarified that although there is chaos surrounding the Silk Road Bitcoin being sent to Coinbase for sale, a closer examination reveals that the main funds were transferred to a newly created wallet that remains inactive. 

However, Skew stated that 2,000 BTC of the total amount was transferred to the alleged Coinbase wallet for undisclosed purposes, while the rest was sent to a newly created wallet. 

200EMA Support Crucial For The Bitcoin Price

The Bitcoin price is currently witnessing a lack of bullish momentum as the cryptocurrency continues to face resistance in consolidating above the crucial $70,000 threshold. However, there is still hope on the horizon. 

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlights the importance of the 200-epimetric moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart of BTC. According to Martinez, this indicator has acted as formidable support since early February and continues to play a crucial role in preventing further downward movement. 

The focus on the 200EMA stems from its potential to either catalyze a rebound or trigger more losses for Bitcoin. Martinez stated that if the 200EMA continues to hold as strong support, it signifies a significant probability of a price rebound. This scenario would provide renewed bullish momentum and potentially propel Bitcoin’s price above the $70,000 mark. 

However, if the 200EMA is broken, as it was in mid-January, as seen in the chart below, the analyst suggests that this could expose the Bitcoin price to further downward pressure and potentially lead to further losses.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $65,390, continuing its recent price correction. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has experienced a 5% decline; over the past seven days, it has seen a significant drop of over 6%. 

The market closely monitors whether the current key support level can sustain further price drops or if a potential bounce will occur before reaching that point. The outcome of these scenarios remains uncertain. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Experience Record Outflows, Losing $740 Million In Three Days

The 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their biggest three-day outflow since their debut in January, as reported by Bloomberg. This shift in investor sentiment comes after heightened interest that propelled the largest cryptocurrency in the market to a record high of $73,700.

Bitcoin ETFs See Record Outflows

Between Monday and Wednesday, a net total of $742 million exited the Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and a moderation in subscriptions for similar offerings from prominent firms like BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity Investments (FBTC).

According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has experienced a notable outflow surge. This recent development indicates a “second wind” of investor withdrawals, with a substantial $1.4 billion leaving the trust just this week. 

Bitcoin ETFs

Notably, these withdrawals have surpassed all other ETFs in year-to-date outflows and set a new record for cumulative outflows in ETF history, as shown in the chart above.

Nevertheless, GBTC continues to hold a prominent position in terms of revenue generation. It currently ranks third out of the 3,400 ETFs available, demonstrating its continued financial success.

Despite the recent outflows, the overall performance of these funds remains noteworthy, with net inflows of $11.4 billion recorded since their launch, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This signifies one of the most successful debuts for an ETF category.

Crypto Analyst Predicts “Massive Bounce” For BTC

Bitcoin experienced a significant surge of over 5% in the United States on Wednesday, propelled by signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) hinting at potential interest-rate cuts. 

However, the Asian market painted a different picture on Thursday, with Bitcoin losing momentum compared to continued gains in global stocks and gold. According to Bloomberg, the news of outflows from Bitcoin ETFs permeated markets, contributing to the contrasting performance.

Nonetheless, renowned crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe shared a bold prediction on social media platform X (formerly Twitter). In his post, he expressed optimism about a “massive bounce” for Bitcoin, suggesting the potential for a continuation of its upward trajectory. 

Van de Poppe also predicted that Bitcoin could consolidate in the near term before embarking on another rally towards the all-time high it reached before the halving event, which is expected to begin sometime in April.

Bitcoin ETFs

Currently, BTC is trading at $66,200, reflecting a 4% increase in the past 24 hours despite ongoing outflows in the ETF market. Over longer time frames, Bitcoin has shown consistent gains, with a 27% increase over the past thirty days and an impressive 136% gain year-to-date.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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High-Stakes Week For Bitcoin And Ethereum As Central Bank Decisions Approach: Key Predictions

This week could mark a pivotal moment in the first quarter of 2024 for the entire crypto market and the two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as major central banks, led by the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), prepare to announce their interest rate decisions. 

According to crypto futures exchange Blofin, these announcements will set the tone for monetary policy in the coming months. The impact of safe-haven sentiment has led to a pullback in both BTC and ETH prices, with traders expressing greater optimism for BTC. 

Bitcoin Price Movement Range Projected At 9.78%

As per a recent on-chain analysis report released by the exchange, crypto traders are expecting BTC’s price movement range to reach 9.78% over the next seven days, with a projected 30-day range of 20.33%. 

However, despite the expected volatility, the report indicates that traders remain bullish on BTC in the medium to long term. 

Skewness analysis suggests that price declines and pullbacks are expected to induce volatility, but the duration of this round of pullback is expected to be relatively short. Risk aversion to macro uncertainty is seen as the primary trigger. 

The latest dealers’ gamma distribution supports the expected wide range of BTC price fluctuations, with gamma peaks around $65,000 and $75,000. With the quarterly settlement approaching, market makers’ influence on BTC price movement is gradually recovering, providing support during price drops but making it challenging to surpass the $75,000 level. 

Bitcoin

In addition, on-chain data shows a decline in spot investors’ enthusiasm for buying BTC, although the number of addresses holding more than 100 BTC continues to increase, as seen in the chart above. The reduced number of addresses holding over 1,000 BTC suggests that significant holders have decided to sell at BTC’s new highs. 

Despite caution over potential price fluctuations, the hedging effect contributes to the increasing possibility of BTC price stabilization, making holding BTC a favorable choice.

Bearish Sentiment Dominates Front-Month Options For Ethereum

According to the report, similar to BTC, traders expect relatively high volatility levels for ETH in the short term, with projected price movement ranges of 10% over seven days and 20.32% over 30 days. However, the report suggests that traders are less optimistic about ETH’s future performance compared to Bitcoin. 

Furthermore, Blofin finds that bearish sentiment dominates the front-month options, while bullish sentiment remains favorable in the back-months. Blofin emphasizes that expectations of rate cuts may support the ETH price, but the pricing of Ethereum tail risk indicates “increased pessimism” regarding significant events impacting the ETH price, with spot Ethereum ETFs seen as a potential trigger. 

Finally, Blofin explains that the high leverage of altcoins has long been a “source of risk” in the cryptocurrency market. The recent price decline has led to the liquidation of many highly leveraged altcoin positions, resulting in lower annualized funding rates for perpetual contracts. 

This deleveraging of altcoins, coupled with their relatively small market share of less than 20%, has helped to mitigate risk and contribute to market stability, according to the report. However, despite the overall decline in altcoin leverage, speculation in meme coins continues.

Bitcoin

At present, the price of Bitcoin stands at $62,500, reflecting a significant decline of 7.5% within the last 24 hours. Similarly, Ethereum is trading at $3,276, experiencing a 6.8% drop during the same period.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Record-Breaking GBTC Outflows Send Bitcoin Down 14% To $62,000

As reported by Fortune Magazine, the cryptocurrency market has been experiencing significant volatility as Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a sharp decline that has had a domino impact on other cryptocurrencies. The recent drop in the price of Bitcoin, coupled with outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC, has raised concerns among investors. 

Bitcoin Sees 14% Correction From ATH

Bitcoin suffered a 14% drop since reaching its all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 last week, briefly touching $62,483 on Tuesday morning. However, it recovered and stabilized around $64,900, just below the $65,000 mark. 

The decline was attributed to record outflows of over $640 million from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). In comparison, other spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of less than $500 million, resulting in a net outflow of $15 million on Monday, according to Bloomberg ETF expert James Seyffart. 

Bitcoin

This outflow from GBTC, combined with the cautious sentiment surrounding the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the US, has had a significant impact on Bitcoin’s performance.

As recently reported by NewsBTC, investors exhibited caution ahead of the FOMC meeting, closely monitoring the potential changes in interest rates. Recent higher-than-expected inflation data, as indicated by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), dampened expectations of interest rate cuts. 

According to Fortune, the CME FedWatch Tool projected a 99% likelihood of rates remaining unchanged, further affecting market sentiment. Per the report, investors were keen to gauge the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy, contributing to the cautious trading environment.

In the same context, the Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate from -0.1% to 0% to 0.1% in response to rising consumer prices. This was the first rate increase in 17 years.

Crypto Futures Traders Take A Hit

The drop in Bitcoin’s price had a cascading effect on other cryptocurrencies. Major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) experienced significant declines of 8.1% and 12.5% over the past 24 hours, respectively. 

Meme coins, including Floki Inu (FLOKI), Bonk Inu (Bonk), and Dogecoin (DOGE), also suffered losses of 34%, 28.5%, and 24.8%, respectively, during the past week. 

The decline in cryptocurrency prices resulted in over $440 million worth of liquidations for traders of crypto futures. Traders who had leveraged positions betting on higher prices faced significant losses. Most of these liquidations occurred on Binance, totaling $212 million, followed by OKX at $170 million. 

Bitcoin

Despite its price correction, BTC retains substantial gains of over 26% and 132% in the past thirty days and year-to-date timeframe, respectively.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Post-Halving Pressure: Marathon Digital Anticipates Bitcoin Break-Even Price Of $43,000

The Bitcoin (BTC) market has been on a wild ride recently, hitting a new all-time high (ATH) before experiencing notable volatility that resulted in an 8% drop to the $65,500 level on Friday. 

Meanwhile, Marathon Digital, one of the largest US-based Bitcoin mining companies, is preparing to acquire more power infrastructure and streamline operations to meet the challenges posed by a reduction in revenue due to the upcoming April halving event. 

Bitcoin Miners Brace For Post-Halving Shakeout

According to a Bloomberg report, Marathon Digital plans to acquire additional power infrastructure and expand its mining capacity to keep costs low and maintain profitability. 

By optimizing operations and scaling up, Marathon aims to mitigate the impact of the impending revenue drop and secure wider margins in the post-halving landscape.

Marathon Digital recently announced an agreement to purchase a 200-megawatt data center in Garden City, Texas, for over $87 million. This acquisition marks the company’s second major investment in power infrastructure after it acquired multiple sites for $179 million earlier this year. 

By increasing its ownership of mining capacity infrastructure to 53%, up from a meager 3% in the previous year, Marathon is positioning itself for greater operational efficiency and cost-effectiveness, Bloomberg notes. 

However, post-halving, the Bitcoin mining industry is expected to undergo significant changes, with some miners facing profitability challenges and potential exits. 

Profitability Crisis Looms

Marathon Digital’s CEO, Fred Thiel, highlights the impact of revenue reduction, estimating that the industry’s average break-even point will rise from around $23,000 per Bitcoin to approximately $43,000. Thiel stated:

Post halving, there will be some miners to lose profitability, maybe challenged, or maybe looking for an exit as their revenues will drop because of the Bitcoin rewarded will drop. The simple math is, if the industry average break-even point was around $23,000 per Bitcoin, it will now go up to around $43,000.

It is worth noting that this does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin’s price will fall to $43,000 from its current trading price of $69,300. The breakeven price refers to the price at which miners like Marathon Digital can cover their operating costs and achieve profitability. It is not directly correlated to the market price of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin

As of the time of writing, BTC is trading at $69,300 and is on the verge of reclaiming the significant milestone of $70,000. The cryptocurrency experienced a notable spike in volatility during the early hours of Friday’s trading session but has since recovered, mitigating its losses from 8% down to 2.5%.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com