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Cardano Bearish Signal: Dormant ADA Whales Are On The Move

Cardano (ADA) may be turning bearish once more after whales began moving again. This activity was brought to light by the on-chain data tracker Santiment which showed unusual activity in dormant ADA wallets after the price crossed $0.3.

Cardano Sharks And Whale Start Moving Coins

In the report that was posted on X (formerly Twitter) by the on-chain data tracker, Cardano shark and whale addresses (that is addresses holding between 100,000 and 10 million ADA on their balances), as well as old coins, have been showing a lot of activity.

Most of this activity could be detrimental to the current ADA recovery given that these large holders have been moving their previously dormant coins. The Santiment report shows that old ADA coins are moving back into circulation once more.

Cardano ADA whales

It showed that the crypto just marked its largest day of old coins being moved around. The last time that this metric was this high, as pointed out by the tracker, was back in April 2022, and historical performance does not spell good news following this.

Cardano (ADA) price chart from Tradingview.com

What Happened To ADA Price Last Time?

Back in April 2022 when a similar volume of old coins began moving back into circulation, it spelled doom for the ADA price. Looking at the chart in 2022 shows that ADA had finished out the month of March strong at a price of $1.21. However, once these coins began moving, it was game over.

April 2022 saw the ADA price fall from $1.21 to $0.8 before the month was over, meaning a 33% drop in price. The downtrend would carry on into the later part of the year and by December 2022, the ADA price had fallen as low as $0.24.

If this were to repeat itself, then another 30% drop would send the ADA price below $0.1 in the coming month. This would take the price back to September 2020 levels. However, it is not all bad news for the digital asset given the activity of sharks and whales.

In the same report, Sentiment revealed that Cardano sharks and whales have been buying up ADA rapidly. They had bought a total of 43.71 million ADA in the space of two weeks, now worth more than $131 million at the current price. This suggests bearish sentiment is limited given that large addresses are still accumulating coins.

At this rate, whatever is being dumped on the open market by the dormant wallets will be picked up by the sharks and whales. As long as demand continues to match supply, then the sell-off could have next to a negligible effect on the price of ADA.

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Cardano Bearish Signal: Dormant ADA Whales Are On The Move

Cardano (ADA) may be turning bearish once more after whales began moving again. This activity was brought to light by the on-chain data tracker Santiment which showed unusual activity in dormant ADA wallets after the price crossed $0.3.

Cardano Sharks And Whale Start Moving Coins

In the report that was posted on X (formerly Twitter) by the on-chain data tracker, Cardano shark and whale addresses (that is addresses holding between 100,000 and 10 million ADA on their balances), as well as old coins, have been showing a lot of activity.

Most of this activity could be detrimental to the current ADA recovery given that these large holders have been moving their previously dormant coins. The Santiment report shows that old ADA coins are moving back into circulation once more.

Cardano ADA whales

It showed that the crypto just marked its largest day of old coins being moved around. The last time that this metric was this high, as pointed out by the tracker, was back in April 2022, and historical performance does not spell good news following this.

Cardano (ADA) price chart from Tradingview.com

What Happened To ADA Price Last Time?

Back in April 2022 when a similar volume of old coins began moving back into circulation, it spelled doom for the ADA price. Looking at the chart in 2022 shows that ADA had finished out the month of March strong at a price of $1.21. However, once these coins began moving, it was game over.

April 2022 saw the ADA price fall from $1.21 to $0.8 before the month was over, meaning a 33% drop in price. The downtrend would carry on into the later part of the year and by December 2022, the ADA price had fallen as low as $0.24.

If this were to repeat itself, then another 30% drop would send the ADA price below $0.1 in the coming month. This would take the price back to September 2020 levels. However, it is not all bad news for the digital asset given the activity of sharks and whales.

In the same report, Sentiment revealed that Cardano sharks and whales have been buying up ADA rapidly. They had bought a total of 43.71 million ADA in the space of two weeks, now worth more than $131 million at the current price. This suggests bearish sentiment is limited given that large addresses are still accumulating coins.

At this rate, whatever is being dumped on the open market by the dormant wallets will be picked up by the sharks and whales. As long as demand continues to match supply, then the sell-off could have next to a negligible effect on the price of ADA.

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Cardano Whale Addresses Continue To Fall, What Does This Mean For ADA Price?

The ADA price has moved in tandem with the rest of the crypto market after a small rally but Cardano whales continue to threaten this positive price action. According to recent data, the balances of large ADA whales have continued to decline, suggesting that they may be selling off their substantial holdings.

Cardano Whale Balances See Large Drop

Over the last month, the balances of Cardano’s largest holders have been on a decline. This has occurred as the price of ADA has fallen but with each small recovery, these whales seem to be taking advantage of the market to sell at a profit.

The significant drop in balances over time has been noticed in the wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA have fallen. This assertion is backed up by data from IntoTheBlock which shows a large decline in the holdings of these large holders.

Cardano ADA whales

Toward the end of September, addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA held a total of 5.63 billion tokens. However, going into October, their balances began to drop by the millions. By October 15, their total balance was sitting at 5.41 billion, representing a drop of 220 million tokens.

At the same time that this was happening, larger whales holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA have been increasing their balances. Their holdings increased from 11.81 billion ADA to 12.26 billion ADA toward the end of September. It then saw a small reversal but in August, their holdings settled at 12.16 billion tokens, representing a 300 million increase.

This would suggest that while the 1 million to 10 million cohort had been selling, the 10 million and 100 million cohort had seized the opportunity to buy. This ended in a transfer of over 300 million ADA to these already massive whales, increasing their dominance in the market.

Cardano ADA price chart from Tradingview.com (Whales)

ADA Holders Plunge Further Into Losses

Amid the sell-offs from the 1 million to 10 million ADA cohort, Cardano holders continue to feel the impact of the bear market. Unlike the rest of the top 10 largest cryptocurrencies which have maintained a good profitability ratio, ADA has performed horribly.

Cardano ADA addresses in profit

According to data from IntoTheBlock, only 6% of the almost 4.5 million ADA holders are seeing profit. A whopping 4.09 million addresses are sitting in losses, accounting for 91.76% of the total holder base. In contrast, 2.06% (91,990) addresses are breaking even.

ADA is currently trading at $0.25, a 91.84% drop from its all-time high price of $3.10, according to Messari. However, it remains the 8th-largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of $8.88 billion.

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Cardano Whales Sell 1.02 Billion ADA, More Pain Ahead?

On-chain data shows the Cardano whales have sold more than a billion ADA during the past week, a sign that pain may not be over for the asset yet.

Cardano Whales Have Participated In Some Distribution Recently

Cardano didn’t have the best time in August, as the cryptocurrency registered a more than 18% drop. This new month of September hasn’t been any better for ADA, as the asset has only continued to struggle sideways around its lows so far.

At present, the asset is trading just under the $0.26 level. The chart below displays the recent price action in the cryptocurrency.

Cardano Price Chart

Cardano’s flat returns over the past week aren’t anything different from what has been happening in the wider sector, as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have also been similarly stale recently.

That said, a bearish signal exclusive to the asset appears to have emerged, as Ali, an analyst on X, has pointed out in a new post. According to on-chain data, the ADA whales have participated in a selloff over the past week.

Cardano Whale Selloff

The above chart shows the trend in the combined supply of the Cardano investors holding at least 10 million and at most 100 million ADA in their wallets. At the current exchange rate, this range converts to about $2.6 million at the lower end and $26 million at the upper bound.

The holders of this vast amount of the token are called “whales.” Due to their massive holdings, they are among the most influential entities on the network. The graph shows that these large investors have seen their holdings go down sharply recently.

This ADA holder group has distributed a net amount of 1.02 billion ADA (worth around $260 million) in this latest selloff, which is a pretty significant figure.

The whales shaving off their supply is naturally not a positive sign for the cryptocurrency, as it suggests that some of these humongous holders don’t think the asset will recover shortly, so they are cutting their losses and exiting the coin.

ADA Continues To Be 7th Largest Coin In Sector

Despite its decline, Cardano is still the seventh-largest asset in the cryptocurrency sector in terms of market cap, as the table below shows.

Cardano Market Cap

However, the gap between ADA and the 8th place Dogecoin (DOGE) is down to less than $100 million now, meaning that the asset is at risk of dropping down from its spot.

Unless things change fast for Cardano, it may be inevitable that the cryptocurrency would slip below the memecoin shortly, given the bearish movement from the whales.

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Cardano Whales Rapidly Accumulating, ADA Bull Run Incoming?

There are encouraging on-chain activities in Cardano. According to Santiment, an on-chain analytics platform, on August 14, there were 25,294 wallet addresses with at least 100,000 ADA, the highest in over 16 months.

The uptick could signal interest, especially considering that prices are under pressure looking at the performance in the daily chart. 

Cardano Whales Accumulating

ADA Whales Accumulating

Looking at Santiment trends, it appears that ADA whales began accumulating as early as June 2022, and the number has been rising steadily ever since. However, amid this encouraging “bullish” signal, ADA prices have fluctuated, edged lower, and diverged with whales’ actions in the past 16 months.

ADA is changing hands at around $0.289 at spot rates, down from $0.465 when whales began loading up in mid-June 2022, as seen below. 

ADA price on August 14 as Cardano whales accumulate| Source: ADAUSDT on Binance, TradingView

There are over 25,000 whales with at least 100,000 ADA of writing in mid-August, up by over 3,000 since June 2022. Overall, and as aforementioned, this is a vote of confidence for Cardano and may signal optimism in how ADA’s future prices could pan out. 

In crypto, token holders closely monitor whale activity, as their actions often influence market sentiment. Their continued accumulation, for example, of ADA, is an endorsement of a project’s potential and could ignite demand, lifting prices. Conversely, when they offload, it could trigger a sell-off, forcing asset prices lower.

ADA whales are buying more of the coin when Cardano’s market capitalization has been pulling back from 2023 highs. At spot rates, the project’s market cap is down by at least 35%, dropping from $15.76 billion to $10.1 billion as of mid-August. Even so, ADA is one of the most liquid coins looking at the average daily trading volumes and position in the leader board. 

Cardano Building, ADA Resilient But Weak

Presently ranked eighth, Cardano is ahead of Solana and Tron but trailing XRP and Dogecoin in the top 10. ADA is trading at $0.289, down roughly 10% from August 2023 highs. While ADA remains within the June to July 2023 trading range, ADA buyers hold an advantageous position looking at candlestick arrangements in the daily chart.

Despite recent lower lows, sellers have not yet reversed the gains of July 13, a conspicuous bar that shapes the immediate price action.

Cardano is in the Basho era, where developers look at enhancing scalability and network performance to support intensive decentralized applications (dapps), particularly those in decentralized finance (DeFi). Notable improvements in this phase include pipelining and the release of Mithril, aimed at bolstering network security.

Additionally, Cardano’s leading developer IOG is working on Hydra, a layer-2 solution to boost scalability further using off-chain channels. 

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Cardano (ADA) Next In Line For A Rally Following Shark And Whale Buying Spree

Cardano (ADA) has not exactly been the best performer in the last month. Instead, the altcoin’s price has continued to stall even during periods of market recovery.

However, this trend could change pretty soon given the current accumulation trend among sharks and whales, something that could take a significant chunk of available supply off the open market and trigger another rally.

Cardano Sharks And Whales Go To Market

In a Tuesday post, the on-chain data aggregator platform Santiment revealed an interesting development concerning the ADA sharks and whales. The sharks and whales in this instance refer to wallets holding at least 100,000 ADA and at most 10 million ADA.

What Santiment has found is that this 100,000-10 million cohort has been consistently adding to their balances. The accumulation first began a little over two months ago on May 21, and since then, they have collectively bought over $116.1 million worth of ADA.

Cardano (ADA)

This buying spree also saw their trading volume rise significantly during this time as well. As the on-chain tracker revealed, the sharks and whales saw their cumulative volume cross 67 billion ADA toward the end of July.

As a result of their consistent buying, sharks and whales now account for 34.4% of the total circulating ADA supply. The last time that their holdings were this high was back in 2022, before the FTX collapse. Additionally, their cumulative trading volume is now sitting at its highest level since September 2021.

Will ADA Respond Positively?

In the last two months in which the Cardano sharks and whales have been active, ADA has seen some encouraging price action. In July, its price jumped from below $0.3 to a local high of $0.37. But ultimately, the altcoin corrected back downward, losing a little over 20% of its value.

Since then, the digital asset has continuously struggled to maintain $0.29, with bears having more good days compared to bulls. However, there could be a change in the horizon given that investor sentiment seems to have skewed in favor of buying instead of selling.

What this means is that the mounting buying pressure could quickly see the price of ADA recover as demand grows. So it may not be long before ADA is retesting the $0.35 resistance again. And if this rally happens to coincide with a recovery in the price of Bitcoin (BTC), then it could beat its recent local peak of $0.37 and rally above $0.4.

For this to happen, though, the bulls would have to maintain control and the 6% jump in the altcoin’s daily trading volume in the last day could be evidence of this.

At the time of writing, ADA is trailing at $0.2991, up 2.93% on the daily chart. However, the asset is seeing 2.33% losses on the weekly chart.

Cardano (ADA) price chart from Tradingview.com

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Cardano (ADA) Price Prediction: 28% Upswing Or 23% Drop Coming Next?

Cardano (ADA) is currently trading at a pivotal $0.291. The question is: Will ADA experience a 28% upswing or is a 23% drop on the horizon? Remarkably, the ADA price still remains in bearish territory, but the potential for a trend reversal is palpable.

Price Analysis: 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart paints a picture of ADA trading just a smidge above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which stands at $0.286. Notably, on Monday, ADA briefly dipped below this level but was buoyed by the ascending trend line (black line) that was established in mid-June. This trend line is the bulls’ last stand; a breach could see a bearish descent to the year’s low of $0.22.

Adding another layer of complexity, the 200-EMA (blue line) on the 4-hour chart is converging towards the 23.6% Fibonacci level. ADA’s recent inability to surpass the 20-EMA (red line) is concerning. With the moving averages trending downward, a compression between $0.28 and $0.30 seems inevitable.

Cardano ADA price

However, if ADA remains resilient above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the trendline, and manages to break the moving averages, especially the 200-EMA, then the bulls might just have a fighting chance.

In this scenario, the 38.2% Fibonacci at $0.319, the 50% Fibonacci at $0.346, and the 61.8% Fibonacci at $0.378 become the next logical targets. A daily close above $0.38 (July’s high) would be a clarion call for the bulls, marking a 28% rallye from the recent price.

Bullish Arguments for Cardano

The recent price movements by Cardano might be bearish, but there are compelling arguments in favor of ADA’s potential resurgence. Santiment, a renowned analytics platform, recently tweeted:

As Cardano sits just above $0.29, whales and sharks holding between 100K-10M ADA have accumulated back to their highest level since September, 2022. Additionally, on-chain transaction volume has been rising nearly every week for the past 6 months.

This statement is supported by data indicating ADA’s transaction volume surged above a staggering 67 billion ADA in consecutive weeks, a peak not seen since September 2021. Such heightened network activity is often interpreted as a bullish sign, indicative of increased user engagement and interest.

Furthermore, ADA wallets holding between 100K-10M ADA now account for a significant 34.04% of all circulating tokens, suggesting strong confidence among larger investors.

Cardano is seeing accumulation by large investors

Also, Messari’s recent report on Cardano offers more reasons for optimism. The report delves deep into Cardano’s ecosystem, financial trends, and network performance. One of the standout revelations is the surge in decentralized app (dapp) activities. For the third consecutive quarter, Cardano has seen a remarkable uptick in dapp transactions, boasting a 49.0% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q2, averaging 57,900 daily transactions.

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ADA On Discount? Cardano Whales Go On $200M Shopping Spree

Cardano (ADA) has been on a steady downtrend since September of 2021 after hitting its all-time high of $3.1. This has been one of the most brutal downtrends for its investors, the majority of which are now drowning in losses. However, as they say, that one man’s misfortune is another man’s come up, whales have seen this as a perfect opportunity to buy up as much ADA as they can.  They have now ramped up their buying and have accumulated about $200 million worth of ADA in the space of a month.

Whales Buy 194 Million ADA

Over the past five weeks, Cardano whales have been busy accumulating the digital asset. These whales who hold between 1 million and 10 million ADA on their wallet balances have been the most active since the digital asset has been falling and trending around $1. It seems this has presented a buying opportunity to these whales who have now purchased 196 million ADA in this five-week period.

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Prior to this though, these same addresses have been on a dumping spree. It has caused their collective holdings to drop during this time and in the middle of March had hit one of the lowest points it has ever been. However, after prices had hit a new month low, the whales had resumed their accumulation trend which has increased their collective balances drastically. 

🐳📈 #Cardano whale addresses holding 1M to 10M $ADA are accumulating their bags these past 5 weeks (196M more $ADA) after a 7-month stretch of dumping (-1.7M less $ADA). The 9th largest market cap asset recently hit prices last this low in February, 2021. https://t.co/co8BcqHJAF pic.twitter.com/OXpbu3KSXp

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) May 3, 2022

In total, these whales have purchased about $200 million worth of ADA in a little over a month. This is not a new trend for Cardano whales though. In the first quarter of 2022 alone, it is reported that addresses that held between 1 and 10 million ADA on their balances had bought over 4 billion ADA. This had increased their collective balances to 12.19 before the dump trend that had started in the middle of March.

Cardano Hits Yearly Lows

The current price of Cardano is nothing to write home about but it seems that there is no clear end to this downtrend anytime soon. The digital asset has now managed to hit new yearly lows. ADA had last been at prices this low in February of 2021 and that was when the digital asset was at the beginning stages of its impressive 2021 bull rally.

ADA price hits one year low | Source: ADAUSD on TradingView.com

Even though the network boasts one of the most loyal investors following in the space, its price does not reflect this loyalty, nor does it reflect all of the upgrades that are being made on the network. This coupled with the flatlining transaction volume paints a rather gloomy future for the digital asset.

Related Reading | Bored Ape’s Land Sale Broke Ethereum. Extreme Success Or Roaring Failure?

Cardano investors are also bearing the brunt of the losses in the crypto market. According to data from IntoTheBlock, only 6% of all ADA holders are currently in profit. A measly 1% of holders are sitting tentatively in neutral territory, while the majority of holders (93%) are completely in the loss.

Featured image from Blaze Trends, chart from TradingView.com

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Cardano Whales Double Holdings In 10 Days. Will This Stop The Onslaught?

Cardano (ADA) has been one of the most hardly hit cryptocurrencies during the latest market crash. It has so far lost over 60% of its all-time high, putting the majority of its investors right in the loss territory. The downtrend has been a cause for alarm among holders. But it looks like not everyone feels that way as some, mostly whales, have taken this as an opportunity to increase their holdings.

Whales Fill Up On ADA

A report from analysis firm Santiment shows a broad accumulation trend among whales when it comes to ADA. As the price of the digital asset had crumbled, big investors had ramped up their buying activity. One would think that with such value loss as that recorded by the cryptocurrency, whales with large holdings would dump their bags to save from further losses.

Related Reading | Anthony Scaramucci Urges Bitcoin Holders To Think Long-Term As Downtrend Won’t Last

Instead, these whales are taking this as a buying opportunity. The Sentiment report shows that the top ADA whales have all doubled their holdings in the past 10 days. In this time period, the price of Cardano’s native token ADA had lost about 34% of its value. Whale wallets holding between 10,000 and 1 million ADA have at least doubled their previous holdings since then.

In total, these whales have collectively bought over $53 million worth of ADA in a 10-day period. The average addition to their holdings comes out to around 113%, more than doubling the volume of ADA they control.

🐳 #Cardano's price, like many #altcoins, have plummeted in the past 10 days, dropping -34%. However, large addresses holding between 10k and 1M $ADA, own 113% more in their collective bags since the drop on January 17th, accumulating $53.6M in tokens. 📈 https://t.co/9V50jyrBlX pic.twitter.com/tQdwa7ym38

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) January 28, 2022

Cardano Holders Deep In The Red

Most Cardano holders remain firmly in the red, as represented by data from IntoTheBlock. The digital asset currently features one of the lowest profit rates of all the top cryptocurrencies with only 9% of holders said to be in profit.  A whopping 84% of all Cardano investors continue to struggle as their holdings are sitting firmly in loss, while only 7% are holding on in the neutral territory.

ADA trading a $1.02 | Source: ADAUSD on TradingView.com

The cryptocurrency had managed to hit a high above $3 in an impressive rally last year. However, it has been a sad story of dips and crashes since then that has shaved about $2 off of its all-time high value. Currently, the digital asset is still struggling in the market.

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The buys from Cardano whales have worked to the good for the asset but it is too soon to tell how long the stop-gap will hold. If whales continue their accumulation trend, and smaller investors follow in the footsteps of the whales, then a reversal could very well be in the works. However, with market sentiment firmly in the bearish territory, investors may be too wary to gamble on the smart contracts network.

Featured image from Nasdaq, chart from TradingView.com