Some banks, however, expect the dollar index to stay firm over the near term.
Bitcoin Drops Over 5% as Upbeat U.S. Factory Data Powers Dollar Index to Nearly 5-Month High
The U.S. factory activity unexpectedly expanded in March, data released Monday showed, sending the dollar index higher.
Bitcoin Price Targets $46,000 As DXY Receives Kiss Of Death
In a striking dual analysis, the financial charts paint contrasting futures for the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin (BTC). Gert van Lagen, a technical analyst, has provided a bearish prognosis for the DXY, while simultaneously highlighting a bullish setup for Bitcoin that could see it aiming for a $46,000 target.
DXY Receives Kiss Of Death
The DXY has been in an upward trend since July, as shown by the blue ascending trend line on the daily chart. However, this line was broken to the downside on October 9, indicating a change in market sentiment. Van Lagen explains, “Blue uptrend since July has been broken too. Time to continue down.”
This sentiment is reinforced by the price action within the black channel from the beginning of October till recently, where a period of consolidation is visible, succeeded by a strong downward move. The DXY dropped by 1.2% last Friday, November 3, to 104.92 and is currently undergoing a retest of the channel, a common technical pattern where the price moves back to the breakdown point before continuing in the direction of the initial direction.
A third bearish argument for the DXY is the rejection at the highlighted red zone on the chart which signifies a high timeframe Fibonacci resistance area. The Fibonacci retracement is a popular tool among traders to identify potential reversal levels. The DXY’s price action shows a “clear rejection” at this level, where the index attempted to rise but was pushed back down, reinforcing the bearish stance.
Bitcoin Price Targets $46,000
Amidst the weakness of the DXY, the inverse correlation with Bitcoin becomes a focal point for crypto investors. Gert van Lagen provides insight into Bitcoin’s potential trajectory, observing a bullish pattern emerging on its 6-hour chart.
“BTC [6h] – Bullish pennant in play targeting $46k. The pennant is part of the shown ascending channel,” remarked van Lagen. The chart displays Bitcoin’s price consolidating in a pennant structure, a continuation pattern that signals a pause in a strong upward or downward trend before the next move.
The pennant is delineated by converging trend lines which have been formed by connecting the sequential highs and lows of price action, converging to a point indicative of an imminent breakout.
In this case, the pennant follows a significant upward trend, suggesting that the breakout is likely to continue in the bullish direction. The ascending channel, highlighted by two parallel upward-sloping lines, encompasses the entire bullish movement of Bitcoin on the chart, including the pennant formation. This channel serves as a guide for the price trend, indicating where support and resistance levels are anticipated at the moment.
Van Lagen’s analysis posits a targeted price of $46,000 upon the resolution of the pennant, a level that is determined by the height of the prior move that preceded the pennant, projected upward from the point of breakout. The dashed lines on the chart illustrate the potential path Bitcoin’s price could take following the breakout.
An important detail in van Lagen’s chart is the ‘Invalidation’ level marked below the pennant. This level at $34,103 is critical as it signifies where the bullish hypothesis would be considered incorrect, serving as a stop-loss point for traders acting on this pattern.
At press time, BTC traded at $34,625.
Turning Point For Bitcoin And Crypto? DXY At 5-Month High
In a crucial development for the financial markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has surged to its highest level since March, marking a pivotal moment for Bitcoin and the broader crypto sector. The DXY, which gauges the Greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, has extended its gains above the 104.000 mark in the past four day, reaching a five-month peak at 104.907. At press time, the DXY was trading at 104.773.
From a technical standpoint, the DXY has exhibited a bullish bias, especially after surpassing the 200-day Moving Average (DMA) on Thursday last week. For the DXY to solidify its bullish stance, it needs to surpass the year-to-date (YTD) high of 105.882, which would then bring the 106.000 mark into focus. Surpassing this level could set the stage for the DXY to challenge the November 30 daily high of 107.195 and potentially rally towards March’s 21 high of 107.993.
However, on the flip side, if the DXY were to dip below 104.538, it could trigger a correction, targeting the 200-DMA (currently at $103.326). In the short term, while the DXY remains bullish, it must breach the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $105.368.
Renowned macro analyst Henrik Zeberg weighed in on the DXY’s trajectory, predicting that DXY bulls shouldn’t get too excited, “I just love this BEARISH – bullish move in DXY. Let the DXY Bulls get overly excited! Exactly what is needed for the reversal. 106.0 – 106.3 (is key).”
How Will Bitcoin Respond To DXY’s Strength
The inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the DXY has been a topic of interest in recent years. With the DXY’s recent surge, concerns are mounting about potential downward pressure on Bitcoin and crypto in the short-term. Some analysts believe that another uptick in the dollar could push Bitcoin towards the $23.500 mark, especially given the relatively low levels of open interest (OI) and volume for BTC.
Glassnode founders Yann Allemann and Jan Happel provided insights into Bitcoin’s outlook, noting, “Mid-term outlook: Favorable risk/reward, but short-term, uncertain ($25.8k – $26.8k). Possible downside ($23.8k – $24.8k) due to bearish trend. Signs of bottoming: RSI bullish divergence, fading volatility. […] We’re close to the bottom, but the environment is still unstable.”
Elaborating on the current market conditions, they added, “We’re in an unstable environment. Wait for the dip or buy the breakout. Bitcoin Risk Signal near extremes. $25.8k – $26.8k is No Man’s Land. The mid-term risk/reward is favorable for BTC and crypto.” Moreover, they predict that Bitcoin will bottom out in mid-September when the DXY reaches its top, setting Bitcoin and crypto up for a stellar October.
At press time, BTC price remained stagnant below $27,800.
Bitcoin Set to Form Death Cross as Dollar Index Teases Golden Crossover
A death cross indicates a potential long-term bearish shift in momentum while a golden cross suggests the opposite.
Bitcoin Cannot Remain Indifferent to Dollar Index for Long: Analyst
U.S dollar index’s fate impacts global liquidity conditions, which, in turn, influences risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Steady Near $31K After Options Expiry; Dollar Index Rises Before Key U.S. Inflation Data
With the expiry done, the supposed price magnet at $26,500 from the max pain point is gone and prices could resume the upward journey, a common pattern during the bull market days of 2021.
Bitcoin Holds Above 200-Week Average as Dollar Index Rallies Most Since February
Analysts expect the U.S. dollar to continue gaining ground in the near-term, keeping risk assets under pressure.
Bitcoin, Ether Could Face Risks From Potential Short Squeeze in Dollar Index, QCP Capital Says
The U.S. dollar has been heavily shorted since early October in hopes for a so-called dovish Fed pivot and looks ripe for a short squeeze, a move higher driven by unwinding of bearish positions. Bitcoin tends to move in the opposite direction of the dollar.
Bitcoin’s Negative Correlation With Dollar Index Strengthens Ahead of U.S. GDP Data
The 90-day correlation coefficient between the two has declined to -0.70 from -0.11 four weeks ago, hinting at a strong inverse relationship.
Bitcoin price dips under $60K as Dollar Strength Index reaches 16-month highs
The greenback regained strength in hopes that stronger inflation data in the U.S. would revive a tighter monetary policy and after better-than-expected retail sales growth.
