Profit-Taking Panic, Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Sell Off โ€“ Whatโ€™s Next For BTC?

Recent on-chain data highlighted a significant trend: a wave of profit-taking by investors who have held Bitcoin (BTC) for less than five months.

As detailed by CryptoQuant’s latest data, this phenomenon is not just a random market movement but an echo of patterns observed at the zeniths of previous bull markets.

Profit-Taking Among Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Signals Market Shift

According to CryptoQuant, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a key metric in evaluating the profit and loss of Bitcoin transactions over a specific period, showcases a pronounced uptick indicative of widespread profit realization.

This tendency among short-term holders to liquidate their holdings for gains parallels historical market peaks and suggests a critical juncture for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Short Term Holder metric.

Crypto Dan, a seasoned market analyst, emphasized the significance of this trend, stating, “This movement is something that only happens once every few years,” highlighting the uniqueness and possible consequences of the present market trends.

New Market Forces At Play: ETFs Inflow Set To Rebalance The Equation

While the SOPR metric might signal alarm bells reminiscent of past bull market peaks, the crypto landscape is underpinned by factors that could mitigate the traditional outcomes of such profit-taking.

Among these is the recent introduction of a BTC spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). This new avenue for Bitcoin investment introduces a complex layer to the market’s dynamics, potentially cushioning any adverse effects of short-term holders’ profit-taking activities.

Dan concluded by noting:

But considering the BTC spot ETF and potential additional inflows from institutions and individuals, it is difficult to judge it as simply a signal of the peak of a bull market. After a short-term correction period, it’s very likely that we will see a strong further bull in 2024.

CoinShares Head of Research, James Butterfill, provides a further layer of analysis, suggesting an imminent “positive demand shock” for Bitcoin. According to Butterfill, the delay in making spot Bitcoin ETFs accessible to the Registered Investment Advisors (RIA) market โ€” a sector managing around $50 trillion in assets โ€” is set to end.

With RIAs requiring three months of trading data before including new ETFs in their portfolios, the market is on the cusp of witnessing a substantial influx of new investments into Bitcoin. “If 10% of RIAs chose to invest 1% of their portfolios, this could result in approximately $50 billion in additional inflows,” Butterfill elaborated, highlighting the scale of potential market impact.

Moreover, the current supply-demand dynamics within the Bitcoin market are skewed towards increasing demand against decreasing supply.

The daily demand for BTC, fueled by the trade of spot BTC ETFs and the average production of new coins, underscores a growing discrepancy that ETF issuers are filling by tapping into the secondary market.

This scenario is evidenced by a dramatic decrease in OTC desk coin holdings, a direct consequence of ETF-driven demand, according to Butterfill.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

Key Trend Driving Altcoin Market Toward $425 Billion: Analyst

Amid the bullish sentiment around the crypto landscape, the Altcoin overall market cap has displayed positive strength as many investors and traders are throwing capital into several altcoins ahead of the bull cycle.ย 

Altcoin Market To Rally Toward $425 Billion

Since Bitcoin has surged to a new record high, many cryptocurrency analysts anticipate a surge in the altcoin market cap. Rekt Capital, a cryptocurrency expert and trader, has shared a positive prediction regarding the altcoins market cap with the community on X.

The expert analysis delves into the current state of the market and its potential to surge higher in the coming months. His projections came in light of the altcoin season index showing advancement, which suggests that its season is almost here.

According to the analyst, the market has been “redirected into the blue-circled testing area,” which was caused by rejection from the “red-circled circle zone.” However, the market has rebounded since then, indicating an increased interest from market investors.

Altcoin

Furthermore, Rekt Capital noted that the market has surpassed the “$315 billion red line of resistance.” As a result, the red line resistance level has now been changed to a “new support level.” Due to this, the crypto analyst anticipates a surge to the “light blue circle” at the $425 billion threshold in the upcoming months.

The post read:

The red-circled area rejected the Altcoin Market back into the blue-circled retesting zone. Since then, the Altcoin Market Cap has recovered, broken beyond the red $315bn resistance, and turned recently into new support. Next is the light blue circle, over time.

However, Rekt Capital also asserted in another recent post that the “$315 billion mark is still being retested by alts market cap new support.” It has been unable to move past it despite today’s double-digit declines on several altcoins.

Even though the market is still retesting the aforementioned level, Rekt Capital is confident that it will “revisit the $425 billion resistance” soon. He anticipates the market revisiting the level before the Bitcoin Halving event, expected to take place in April.

Alts Gains Are Sustable And Likely To Crash

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Bitcoin technology firm JAN3, Samson Mow, has also shared his insights regarding the altcoin market. Despite anticipating a rise in the altcoin market, Mow highlighted that he expects alts to “crash in the upcoming weeks.”ย 

According to Mow, alts have been monitoring the “increase in Bitcoin” after launching BTC Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). However, altcoins do not possess “the $500 million to $1 billion” daily inflows seen with Bitcoin.

Consequently, this should be the “major sign” that their gains “can not” be maintained. “MSTR has a $30 billion market cap, Solana is $73 billion. That is absurd. A correction is overdue,” he added.

Altcoin

Bitcoin To $240,000: Analyst Cites Key Narrative As Catalyst

Bitcoin price has fallen by over 10% after briefly touching its all-time high of $69,000, propelled by investors’ flood of money into BTC Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

However, intense volatility surrounding the crypto asset’s price has triggered a rebound to the $68,000 mark, which highlights the return of positive enthusiasm, prompting predictions of a significant rally to an unprecedented height.

Key Narrative That Could Send Bitcoin To $240,000

Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Matthew Hyland has shared an optimistic forecast for Bitcoin with the community on the social media platform X. The analyst has identified a key trend that could trigger a bullish rally for BTC to the $240,000 threshold.

At first, Hyland noted that over the past two years, Bitcoin has “destroyed several narratives, both positive and negative.” These include one of the ideas that BTC will “never fall below the previous cycle low or reach its peak until after the halving event.”

Bitcoin

However, Hyland claims that the only narrative left that BTC has not destroyed is the “Diminishing Returns,” as it is still almost 100% effective. Hyland is uncertain of the narrative’s effect but believes that it is the “final boss” since it is the only one still standing.

As a result of the trend, the crypto expert has set his price target at $240,000 in the upcoming months. This simply means BTC needs to surpass the aforementioned price in order to be able to demolish the diminishing returns narrative.

Hyland claims it makes no difference to him if Bitcoin “reaches the level or not.” Nonetheless, it will be “intriguing” to observe whether it can smash the one trend that remains intact.

Another expert known as Crypto Signals seems to agree with Hyland, expressing his pleasure in the analysis. According to Crypto Signals, in the context of Bitcoin, “the idea of diminishing returns is a fascinating one.”

Crypto Signals claims that every cycle tends to “produce a declining percentage gain as the market matures.” Due to this, there is a more profound development and broader adoption in the market. Thus, in the constantly changing world of cryptocurrencies, the narrative is worth looking into.

Strategic Timeframe For BTC Pre-Halving Rally

Rekt Capital, a well-known crypto expert, has pinpointed a timeframe for when and where the Bitcoin Pre-Halving rally will end. According to Rekt Capital, the “pre-halving rally is gradually approaching its end.”

Related Reading: Bitcoin Halving Prep: Analyst Outlines Key Points Ahead Of Event

Drawing a comparison to 2020’s pre-halving rise, the analyst stated that it occurred two weeks before the event. After that, BTC witnessed a “pre-halving retrace” of about 20%, which was the last it saw before the halving.

He further drew a comparison to 2016’s pre-halving surge, which he noted took place “28 days prior to the halving.” Nevertheless, it also experienced “a conservative correction” of over 29% after the rally topped.

Rekt Capital has marked the point as the “historic danger zone” that could potentially conclude the pre-halving rally this year, before witnessing a pullback ahead of the event.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Crossroads: Analyst Identifies Level Set To Determine Next Move

Bitcoin has been on an upward trajectory for a while now, witnessing a significant rally within the broader crypto market and reaching the $64,000 threshold on Sunday, as analysts have identified trends that could decide the asset’s next direction.

Bitcoin Poised To Witneesed A Rally Or Dip In Short Term

Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Ali Martinez has taken to the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to share his insights on Bitcoin’s price action in the short term with the crypto community.

Martinez has spotted an area that could either lead to an uptick or a correction. Ali Martinez highlighted that more than half a million Bitcoins have been transacted within the range of $61,100 and $61,800, and as a result, the crypto asset has formed a “substantial support area.”

According to the analyst, BTC is expected to rise towards $65,900, if it manages to hold above this level. However, the experts expect this to happen considering the lack of obstacles that lie ahead.

Bitcoin

Furthermore, Martinez has also pointed out the potential for Bitcoin to undergo a correction if it falls below the support level. The crypto analyst stated that if this happens, BTC could decline to “$56,970 or even deeper to $51,500.”

The Post read:

Over 500,000 BTC have been transacted in the range of $61,100 to $61,800, which has created a substantial support area. If Bitcoin remains above this threshold, it could climb towards $65,900, given the minimal resistance ahead. Conversely, should BTC dip below support, a correction could lead it down to $56,970 or even $51,500.

Ali Martinez’s predictions came in light of the broader crypto market experiencing a significant rally. Presently, the entire crypto market is seeing a substantial capital inflow not recorded in over 2 years.

Martinez noted in another X post that approximately $48.54 billion is entering the crypto market, indicating a rise in investors’ interest in crypto. He further underscored that the development marks the “largest inflow of capital since October 2021.”

So far, experts forecast that in the upcoming months, there will be bigger financial inflows due to more lucid cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks.

BTC ETFs To Control 10% Of The Crypto Asset’s Supply

Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to gain traction as BTC maintains its upward momentum. Due to this, SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci has predicted that the products could “take control of 10% of BTC’s supply.”

Scaramucci noted that a lot of BTCs have been “lost since the ETFs were introduced.” Consequently, ETFs now boast about 776,000 BTC since the products began trading.ย 

However, he expects the products to take control of the aforementioned percent “when it hits 1.7 million BTC.” Anthony Scaramucci is confident that when this happens, there will be a swift rise in Bitcoin’s price.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is trading at $65,184, demonstrating an increase of over 5% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, its market cap and trading volume are both up by 5% and 79% respectively in the past day.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Crossroads: Analyst Identifies Level Set To Determine Next Move

Bitcoin has been on an upward trajectory for a while now, witnessing a significant rally within the broader crypto market and reaching the $64,000 threshold on Sunday, as analysts have identified trends that could decide the asset’s next direction.

Bitcoin Poised To Witneesed A Rally Or Dip In Short Term

Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Ali Martinez has taken to the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to share his insights on Bitcoin’s price action in the short term with the crypto community.

Martinez has spotted an area that could either lead to an uptick or a correction. Ali Martinez highlighted that more than half a million Bitcoins have been transacted within the range of $61,100 and $61,800, and as a result, the crypto asset has formed a “substantial support area.”

According to the analyst, BTC is expected to rise towards $65,900, if it manages to hold above this level. However, the experts expect this to happen considering the lack of obstacles that lie ahead.

Bitcoin

Furthermore, Martinez has also pointed out the potential for Bitcoin to undergo a correction if it falls below the support level. The crypto analyst stated that if this happens, BTC could decline to “$56,970 or even deeper to $51,500.”

The Post read:

Over 500,000 BTC have been transacted in the range of $61,100 to $61,800, which has created a substantial support area. If Bitcoin remains above this threshold, it could climb towards $65,900, given the minimal resistance ahead. Conversely, should BTC dip below support, a correction could lead it down to $56,970 or even $51,500.

Ali Martinez’s predictions came in light of the broader crypto market experiencing a significant rally. Presently, the entire crypto market is seeing a substantial capital inflow not recorded in over 2 years.

Martinez noted in another X post that approximately $48.54 billion is entering the crypto market, indicating a rise in investors’ interest in crypto. He further underscored that the development marks the “largest inflow of capital since October 2021.”

So far, experts forecast that in the upcoming months, there will be bigger financial inflows due to more lucid cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks.

BTC ETFs To Control 10% Of The Crypto Asset’s Supply

Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to gain traction as BTC maintains its upward momentum. Due to this, SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci has predicted that the products could “take control of 10% of BTC’s supply.”

Scaramucci noted that a lot of BTCs have been “lost since the ETFs were introduced.” Consequently, ETFs now boast about 776,000 BTC since the products began trading.ย 

However, he expects the products to take control of the aforementioned percent “when it hits 1.7 million BTC.” Anthony Scaramucci is confident that when this happens, there will be a swift rise in Bitcoin’s price.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is trading at $65,184, demonstrating an increase of over 5% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, its market cap and trading volume are both up by 5% and 79% respectively in the past day.

Bitcoin

Analyst Labels Bitcoin Rally Strongest Pre-Bull Cycle Yet

The entire cryptocurrency space is fueled with excitement as the price of Bitcoin rallied today, demonstrating immense resilience, reaching the $59,000 threshold and even further in the past 26 months.

Bitcoin Rally Kicks Off The Strongest Pre-Bull Cycle So Far

Bitcoin is currently in the limelight as the crypto asset continues to rally, leading to several analysts identifying the surge as the start of the “biggest bull cycle ever.”

Analyst and trader Crypto Jelle has labeled the recent uptick as the “strongest start to a new cycle” as his analysis examines the strength of BTC‘s surge.

Jelle claims this resulted from Bitcoin’s latest “break out from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.” According to the analyst, “this marks the first time” the asset has made this kind of move “before the Bitcoin Halving event happens.”

Bitcoin

He also claims that with the ongoing rally, it seems like the market is “in for a new regime,” he believes things will play out “differently” in the market from how they usually do.

The post read:

This is the first time Bitcoin breaks that 0.618 Fibonacci retracements before the halving event even takes place. By far the strongest start to a new cycle, ever. Looks like we are in for a new regime, where things work a little different than how they used to.

The analyst claims that a shift in the narrative is ushering in a “new era of dynamics in the cryptocurrency landscape.” As a result, “exciting moments await” the space in the future.

Crypto Jelle declared that nothing can stop Bitcoin at the moment. “With BTC rising by another 2% in the past few hours, there seems to be no stopping it right now,” he stated.

Additionally, most of yesterday’s gains occurred outside the Exchange-Traded Funds’ trading hours. However, the analyst is waiting to see if they will “force boomers to pursue price.”

BTC ETFs See Massive Inflow

Research company BitMEX reported that Bitcoin Spot ETFs have seen increased adoption, witnessing a massive surge in daily inflow. Data from the platform shows that ETFs have witnessed a significant inflow of 10,167 BTC valued at $576.8 million.

BitMEX underscored that Blackrock’s iShares BTC ETF (IBIT) made up $520 million of the total inflow. Consequently, this marks the highest inflow the company has seen since the products were approved.ย 

So far, Blackrock’s asset holdings have risen to over 141,000 BTC, and its net inflow sits above $6.5 billion. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $59,254, indicating a rise of over 4% in the past 24 hours.ย 

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT chart 1

Bitcoin Price Soars: Analyst Sets 2025 Price Target At $200,000

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency asset by market cap, suddenly took off on Monday, reaching the $57,000 price mark for the first time in the last 26 months, prompting several predictions of a new all-time high before the end of 2025.

Bitcoin Could Hit $200,000 Before 2025 Closes

Amid the recent market surge, cryptocurrency analyst and Chief Executive Officer(CEO) of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, has expressed his optimism towards Bitcoin, while sharing an intriguing prediction with the crypto community on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter).

Peter Brandt’s analysis delves into Bitcoin’s recent price action and how high the crypto asset could go before 2025 closes. With BTC’s current bull market cycle, Brandt has set an ambitious goal of $200,000 next year.

Bitcoin

Brandt’s initial Bitcoin price target for 2025 was $120,000, but with the recent rally, he has placed his mark at the aforementioned price. His modifications came in light of BTC exhibiting a bullish trend, surpassing the “upper boundary of the 15-month channel.”

Furthermore, he highlighted that the current market bull cycle might “end in August or September 2025” if this bullish trend continues. However, according to him, this interpretation will be void if there is a Bitcoin “close below last week’s low.”

The post read:

With the thrust above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current bull market cycle scheduled to end in August or September 2025 is being raised from $120,000 to $200,000. A close below last week’s low will nullify this interpretation.

The analyst’s daring predictions have since caused quite a stir within the crypto space. Several community members have expressed their pleasure in the crypto expert’s analysis.

A pseudonymous X user commented on Brandt’s forecast, saying his overview shares “fascinating insights into Bitcoin’s market projection.” They asserted that “the upward momentum breaking through barriers is indeed intriguing.”

Additionally, they also believe that a close below last week’s low would change Brandt’s narrative, which will highlight the fragile balance in the cryptocurrency space.

Factors That Could Be Responsible For BTC’s Rally

BTC’s current rally is believed to be buttressed by several developments that have garnered attention in the crypto market today. These include increased demand from investors through Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and additional BTC purchases by Microstrategy.

It is noteworthy that since the start of the year, investors’ demands through ETFs have served as a major support for BTC. On January 11, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, which has triggered confidence ever since.

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor’s Microstrategy made an additional 3,000 BTC purchase, valued at $155 million before the uptick. This development suggests institutional interest in BTC, indicating confidence in its long-term potential.

Over the past day, the price of Bitcoin has increased by more than 9%, and it is presently trading at $56,321. Its market cap is up by 9% and its trading volume is up by over 235% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Wallets Bleed: 730K Investors Exit Despite Record $7 Billion ETF Inflows

The long-awaited arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs has ignited a gold rush in the crypto world, attracting both newcomers and seasoned investors. While these new investment vehicles offer a convenient and accessible way to gain exposure to Bitcoin, their impact on the cryptocurrency’s core principles and long-term stability remains a complex question.

Bitcoin ETF: Initial Surge, But Ownership Shift A Concern

The data paints a fascinating picture. Following the SEC’s approval of 11 ETFs, the number of non-zero Bitcoin wallets initially soared, reaching a peak of nearly 53 million in January. This surge was likely fueled by the accessibility and security offered by ETFs, attracting individuals previously hesitant to directly engage with the intricacies of crypto wallets and exchanges.

However, according to data provided by Santiment, a concerning trend emerged 30 days later: nearly 730,000 fewer wallets held any Bitcoin, suggesting a potential shift towards holding through ETFs instead of directly owning the tokens. This raises questions about the long-term impact on Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and the potential for decreased on-chain activity.

ETF Boom, But Supply/Demand Dynamics Unchanged

While the ETF market is thriving, its impact on Bitcoin’s core principles is less clear. The recent record volume and inflows exceeding $7 billion across the top 7 ETFs highlight strong market interest and the potential for mainstream adoption.

However, it’s crucial to remember that these ETFs can hold both actual Bitcoin and futures contracts. This means investors gain exposure without directly impacting the underlying supply or demand of the cryptocurrency itself. This raises questions about whether ETFs are truly driving adoption or simply creating a derivative-based market with its own set of risks and dynamics.

Speculation Surges, Raising Red Flags

Perhaps the most concerning trend is the surge in speculative trading using derivatives. Open interest on centralized exchanges, particularly for Bitcoin, has reached unprecedented levels, exceeding $10 billion for the first time since July 2022.

This indicates investors are taking on more risk by leveraging derivatives, potentially fueled by the “crowd euphoria” surrounding Bitcoin and the allure of potentially quick gains. This echoes the speculative frenzy seen in 2017, raising concerns about potential market volatility and potential crashes. Ethereum, Solana, and Chainlink also exhibit significant open interest, suggesting broader market-wide trends beyond just Bitcoin.

The Verdict: A Double-Edged Sword

The arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs has undoubtedly opened doors for new investors, but it’s important to acknowledge the potential downsides. While accessibility has increased, direct ownership might be decreasing, and the rise of speculative trading using derivatives raises concerns about future market stability.

Moving forward, it will be crucial to monitor how these trends evolve and their long-term impact on the overall health of the crypto ecosystem. Additionally, ongoing regulatory developments surrounding ETFs and derivatives could further shape the landscape.

Featured image from Nicola Barts/Pexels, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin Spot ETFs: Issuers Set New Record As Weekly Inflows Cross $2.2 Billion

Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds have been online in the US for only two months, but their performance has far eclipsed any other asset class. These ETFs recently hit a new milestone, drawing over $2.2 billion in inflows last week alone, shattering the previous weekly record set on the first week of trading. This is a particularly noteworthy development because, as senior Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out, this inflow skyrocketed past the 3,400 plus ETFs available in the US, like the SPLG US and the SPY US.ย 

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge Amid Competition

Bitcoin ETFs have fully captured the interest of institutional investors, with trading volume indicating their appealing nature. Trading volume statistics reveal these 10 ETFS have been experiencing a great deal of activity since their launch, netting more than $2.3 billion last week alone to bring the total inflow to $4.926 billion since they went live. As pointed out by Eric Balchunas, the significant inflow last week puts the ETFs above more established ETFs in the United States.

Notably, most of this inflow went into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which has outperformed the nine other Bitcoin ETFs and ETFs of other asset classes. IBIT accumulated $1.673 billion in net inflows throughout the week, making it the third-largest inflow among any of the 3,500 plus exchange-traded funds.ย 

At the close of last week’s trading session, BlackRock’s IBIT has received a $5.2 billion net inflow since its launch. Notably, this amounts to 50% of the investment company’s net inflow of $10.4 billion from its 417 ETFs since the beginning of the year.ย 

It’s important to note that these staggering inflow numbers have come amidst an ongoing outflow from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). While outflows from the ETFs have slowed down compared to recent weeks, the GBTC witnessed $624 million in outflows during the week. โ€œAgain, this is all net GBTC bleed,โ€ Balchunas noted.

BTC Bullish Price Momentum Set To Continue

Bitcoin’s price has skyrocketed over 33% in the past 30 days, recently topping $52,000 per coin for the first time since 2021. Current price action shows Bitcoin has somehow stabilized around this price point, with the crypto trading between $52,700 and $50,700 in the past five days. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $52,307.

However, the fear of missing out on further gains is driving many new investors to Bitcoin ETFs. According to an analyst, inflows into these ETFs are on track to reach $150 billion by the end of 2025. With a new all-time high now looking plausible, Bitcoin is set to continue on its price gain as spot ETF trading commences throughout the week.