Why The NASDAQ’s Latest Move Is Important For Fund Managers Filing Ethereum ETFs

Traditional financial institutions that have filed crypto ETF applications have focused on a particular market (spot or futures). However, a recent NASDAQ application suggests that the asset manager Hashdex is taking a different approach, which could be a game changer in the Ethereum ETF race. 

NASDAQ Proposes To List Ethereum ETF

According to the application filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the stock exchange plans to list and trade shares of the Hashdex Nasdaq Ethereum ETF, which will be managed and controlled by Toroso Investments LLC.

Interestingly, the fund will hold both Ether futures contracts and Spot Ether. This move from asset manager Hashdex is novel, considering that other asset managers have either applied to offer a Spot Ether ETF or Ether futures ETF or filed applications to offer both separately. However, Hashdex wants to offer a fund holding both Ether futures contracts and a Spot Ethereum ETF.

The fund’s sponsors believe that combining Ether Futures Contracts and Spot Ether will help mitigate the risk of market manipulation (a major concern of the SEC) and provide the market with a “regulated product” that tracks Ethereum’s price. This fund will help US investors gain exposure to Spot Ether without relying on “unregulated products, offshore regulated products, or indirect strategies such as investing in publicly traded companies that hold Ether.”

In fulfillment of the requirement of having a surveillance-sharing agreement (SSA) for the proposed ETF, Nasdaq stated in the application that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will be used to track the price of Ethereum as the CME represents a “regulated market of significant size.”

Furthermore, the fund is expected to hold physical Ether. However, the sponsors do not intend to purchase these tokens from “unregulated ether spot exchanges” but from the CME Market’s Exchange for Physical (EFP) transactions.

This move is similar to Hashdex’s application to combine a spot Bitcoin ETF with its existing Bitcoin futures ETF. Hashdex, in its application, stated that the CME will be used to track Spot Bitcoin’s price and that all Bitcoin purchases will be from the CME’s EFP.

Ethereum price chart from Tradingview.com (Ethereum ETFs NASDAQ)

Hashdex Throwing Other Asset Managers Under The Bus?

Nasdaq’s application mentions the phrase “unregulated spot exchanges” multiple times in what seems to be a direct attack on Coinbase and the applications of other asset managers. It is worth mentioning some of the other asset managers, including Ark Invest, who have filed to offer an Ethereum-related ETF, have chosen Coinbase as their custodian.

As such, Hashdex labeling Coinbase as an “unregulated spot exchange” doesn’t seem right, as this could undoubtedly influence the SEC’s decision when dealing with these applications.

Furthermore, asset managers like BlackRock picking Coinbase for their SSA and custodian had already sparked controversy as many had stated that the SEC would not be so inclined to approve an application in which Coinbase is directly or indirectly involved since it has an ongoing lawsuit against the crypto exchange.

While many may commend Hashdex’s “innovative approach,” there is a need to be wary of how this approach could hinder the application of others and the eventual effect on the crypto industry in general.   

Ethereum Could Jump 27% To Trade At $1,600, How Is This Possible?

Ethereum is currently following the general crypto market trend at this point and has been posting only slight gains in the last 24 hours. With the bear market in full swing, a large number of cryptocurrencies remain at risk of losing more of their value. However, for Ethereum, there could be a bull trend on the horizon and it has to do with staking on the network.

Shanghai Upgrade Will Drive Ethereum Up

Currently, compared to the other Layer 1 proof of stake networks in the sector, Ethereum sees the lowest percentage of supply staked. At less than 14 of ETH supply being staked, it comes down to there not being a withdrawal mechanism for those who stake on the network but this could change very soon and bring with it renewed vigor to the market.

The Ethereum “Shanghai” upgrade is expected to take place sometime in March 2023 and a Matrixport report shared with NewsBTC via email expects this to be a bull trigger for the digital asset. As it puts it, “it seems extremely likely that more ETH will be staked after March and this could put upward pressure on ETH prices.”

The reasoning behind this is a simple one; the more ETH is staked, the less supply in the market, and scarcity leads to higher prices. Instead of staked ETH volume actually declining, it is expected to increase because once withdrawals are possible, investors will be more confident to stake their coins, knowing that they can easily get it back.

“With more ETH being staked and removed from circulation, the downside price pressure seems limited as long as ETH remains staked.”

Another Rally To $1,600 for ETH

The report further elaborates on its expected price reaction for Ethereum following the “Shanghai” upgrade. It notes that the digital asset is already breaking out of its sideways consolidation which is a good thing as such a breakout from previous consolidations had seen ETH rally as high as 39% in 2022.

Ethereum price chart on TradingView.com

So if another breakout such as this were to take place, it is possible that the digital asset could see an over 27% increase just like it did in October 2022. This would obviously bring its price back up to $1,600 with a 27% rally, and above $1,750 with a 39% rally. It also predicts lower volatility for the year 2023, but still expects investors to see a 9.8% increase with a 63% implied volatility for March 23.

Besides the factors outlined in the Matrixport report, another thing that could support this bull case is a “buy the rumor” event. These often occur leading up to important upgrades such as “Shanghai” where investors capitalize on the anticipation to drive the price of a digital asset up. Therefore, in the months and weeks leading up to the upgrade in March, multiple rallies could be triggered which would bring ETH’s price to at least $1,500.

Here’s Why Ethereum Is Not Out Of The Woods Yet

Ethereum has been seeing some significant downside coming out of the weekend. This was triggered by the FTX hacker, who currently holds hundreds of thousands of ETH, dumping some of those coins for Bitcoin over the weekend. After dumping around 10,000 ETH, the digital asset had dumped more than 7%, as a large number of investors continue tracking the wallet.

More Pain To Come For ETH

Looking at the impact of the FTX hacker selling ETH for BTC had on the market, and seeing the balances of the address, it is no secret that Ethereum is not completely out of the woods yet. There are a lot of eyes on the hacker’s wallet, which contains more than 180,000 ETH, coming out to over $200 million.

Even now, the hacker continues to dump more ETH, putting more sell pressure on the cryptocurrency. On Monday, the hacker dumped another 15,000 ETH which was converted to BTC according to on-chain data. Given the pattern of selling, it looks like the hacker is trying to convert the stolen crypto to BTC, likely running it through a mixer later on.

Continuous selling on the part of the hacker who is now one of the largest ETH whales could cause further damage to Ethereum’s price. Over the last 24 hours, ETH’s price is already down more than 7%, making triple-digit price ranges an increasing possibility for ETH.

Ethereum price chart from TradingView.com

ETH falls to $1,100 | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

Can Ethereum Hold Up?

Ethereum bulls continue to fight the selling pressure being created by the FTX hacker dumping coins but there is only so much they can do. During a crypto winter such as the one currently being experienced, prices of cryptocurrencies are already down, making them more susceptible to further declines.

If the FTX hacker were to dump all 180,000 remaining tokens on the market, then there is not enough demand to soak it up at this time. The support at $1,000 is already weakened and would make for easy pickings for bears as well.

Alternatively, the hacker could stop selling coins to wait for a price recovery which would give the market some time to actually find its footing. But sentiment in the space is already dropping and investors have retreated into their shells once more as the Fear & Greed Index points toward extreme fear.

Featured image from MARCA, chart from TradingView.com

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Ethereum Must Hold $1,500 Or Risk A Decline To $1,300

Ethereum is on an obvious bull path given its performance in the last couple of weeks. The digital asset took a turn for the better more than a month after the Merge was completed and accumulation among investors was already in full swing. ETH’s price eventually surpassed $1,600 before encountering rejection and dropping down below. 

Ethereum Needs To Hold $1,500

Now that the digital asset has been beaten down back below $1,600, support has moved lower. $1,500 is currently serving as the support level for Ethereum at this point. This now makes it the level to hold for bulls and the level to beat for the bears.

If the digital asset is unable to hold this level and bears are able to drag its price down below, then ETH will likely see $1,300 on its way down. Below, $1,500, support is weak given the recent sell-offs that have followed the recovery in price. Thus, it lies just above $1,300 before the losses reach a block.

As for the current resistance, it still lies above $1,600 for any significant pushback. This is because Ethereum’s price remains firmly above its 100-day moving average, with a firm middle point between this and the 200-day MA sitting at $1,800. Thus, bears continue to fight to hold any level that could prevent such a recovery.

Ethereum price chart from TradingView.com

ETH continues to hold above $1,500 | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

In addition to this, the sell-offs have been slower than what was recorded back during the period of the Merge. This is why despite an unfavorable announcement by the Fed on Wednesday, there is still a lot of value left from last week’s gains in the crypto market.

As long as there is no drastic shift in investor sentiment at this point leading to massive sell-offs, Ethereum is likely to continue holding above $1,500, at least for the short term. The weekend performance will be another thing entirely given that this is a period of low momentum for the market. So the current indicators for ETH holding through Friday and could deviate going into the weekend. 

ETH’s biggest support still comes from investors holding out hope that the gains recorded in digital assets such as Dogecoin will eventually spill into the broader altcoin market. If so, then ETH could see a rally above $1,600 once more before the weekend is in full swing.

Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView.com

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