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Ethereum’s Rocky Road To $4,000: Will SEC Hurdles Derail Its Bullish Journey?

Ethereum (ETH) stands at a crucial juncture, with its eyes set on the $4,000 price mark. Amid this ambitious pursuit, the digital asset faces a significant challenge that could influence its trajectory: scrutiny from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Despite this potential regulatory hurdle, some analysts remain optimistic about Ethereum’s prospects. A detailed analysis by Captain Faibik, a market watcher, highlighted a bullish pattern in ETH’s four-hour candlestick chart, suggesting that the $4,000 threshold is within reach.

Ethereum Eyes $4,000 Milestone

This optimism stems from a descending wedge pattern observed by Faibik, indicating an end to Ethereum’s consolidation phase and signaling a possible price breakout. The technical analysis paints a promising picture for Ethereum, suggesting that the asset could reclaim its lost valuation.

However, the recent market conditions have posed challenges for Ethereum, with the asset experiencing a more than 15% drop over two weeks, further exacerbated by the broader Bitcoin market correction.

This decline saw ETH trading below the $3,500 mark, with a significant dip to $3,070 on March 20, amid reports of the SEC’s increasing interest in classifying Ethereum as a security.

Particularly, reports indicate that the commission has been seeking financial records from US companies engaged with the Ethereum Foundation, intensifying the debate over Ethereum’s classification. Such regulatory scrutiny casts a shadow over Ethereum’s path to $4,000, introducing uncertainty into its future.

ETF analyst James Seyffart suggests that the SEC’s stance could lead to the denial of spot Ethereum ETF applications by May 23, 2024. He cites a lack of engagement on Ethereum specifics, contrasting with the approach taken for Bitcoin ETFs.

Ethereum’s Network Activity: A Silver Lining

Despite these challenges, Ethereum’s network has witnessed notable growth, with increases in daily active users and transaction volumes signaling a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency. An upsurge in network activity typically indicates heightened demand, a positive sign for Ethereum’s price potential.

From January 3, the number of daily active Ethereum addresses surged by over 46%, coinciding with a significant price rally. This increased activity and price appreciation period highlights Ethereum’s resilience and potential for growth, even in the face of regulatory uncertainties.

As Ethereum navigates through these regulatory and market challenges, the coming weeks will be critical in determining its ability to breach the $4,000 mark. The juxtaposition of technical bullish signals against the backdrop of SEC scrutiny presents a complex scenario for ETH.

However, the strength of its network and the increasing user engagement offer a glimmer of hope for Ethereum enthusiasts and investors.

Ethereum (ETH) price chart on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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High-Stakes Week For Bitcoin And Ethereum As Central Bank Decisions Approach: Key Predictions

This week could mark a pivotal moment in the first quarter of 2024 for the entire crypto market and the two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as major central banks, led by the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), prepare to announce their interest rate decisions. 

According to crypto futures exchange Blofin, these announcements will set the tone for monetary policy in the coming months. The impact of safe-haven sentiment has led to a pullback in both BTC and ETH prices, with traders expressing greater optimism for BTC. 

Bitcoin Price Movement Range Projected At 9.78%

As per a recent on-chain analysis report released by the exchange, crypto traders are expecting BTC’s price movement range to reach 9.78% over the next seven days, with a projected 30-day range of 20.33%. 

However, despite the expected volatility, the report indicates that traders remain bullish on BTC in the medium to long term. 

Skewness analysis suggests that price declines and pullbacks are expected to induce volatility, but the duration of this round of pullback is expected to be relatively short. Risk aversion to macro uncertainty is seen as the primary trigger. 

The latest dealers’ gamma distribution supports the expected wide range of BTC price fluctuations, with gamma peaks around $65,000 and $75,000. With the quarterly settlement approaching, market makers’ influence on BTC price movement is gradually recovering, providing support during price drops but making it challenging to surpass the $75,000 level. 

Bitcoin

In addition, on-chain data shows a decline in spot investors’ enthusiasm for buying BTC, although the number of addresses holding more than 100 BTC continues to increase, as seen in the chart above. The reduced number of addresses holding over 1,000 BTC suggests that significant holders have decided to sell at BTC’s new highs. 

Despite caution over potential price fluctuations, the hedging effect contributes to the increasing possibility of BTC price stabilization, making holding BTC a favorable choice.

Bearish Sentiment Dominates Front-Month Options For Ethereum

According to the report, similar to BTC, traders expect relatively high volatility levels for ETH in the short term, with projected price movement ranges of 10% over seven days and 20.32% over 30 days. However, the report suggests that traders are less optimistic about ETH’s future performance compared to Bitcoin. 

Furthermore, Blofin finds that bearish sentiment dominates the front-month options, while bullish sentiment remains favorable in the back-months. Blofin emphasizes that expectations of rate cuts may support the ETH price, but the pricing of Ethereum tail risk indicates “increased pessimism” regarding significant events impacting the ETH price, with spot Ethereum ETFs seen as a potential trigger. 

Finally, Blofin explains that the high leverage of altcoins has long been a “source of risk” in the cryptocurrency market. The recent price decline has led to the liquidation of many highly leveraged altcoin positions, resulting in lower annualized funding rates for perpetual contracts. 

This deleveraging of altcoins, coupled with their relatively small market share of less than 20%, has helped to mitigate risk and contribute to market stability, according to the report. However, despite the overall decline in altcoin leverage, speculation in meme coins continues.

Bitcoin

At present, the price of Bitcoin stands at $62,500, reflecting a significant decline of 7.5% within the last 24 hours. Similarly, Ethereum is trading at $3,276, experiencing a 6.8% drop during the same period.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Grayscale Submits Revised Application For Ethereum Spot ETF – What’s New?

Asset management firm Grayscale Investments has updated its application for an Ethereum spot ETF (exchange-traded fund) with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Ethereum Spot ETF Case Just As Solid As Bitcoin’s, Grayscale Argues

According to a recent post on X by Craig Salm, Grayscale’s chief legal officer, the asset management firm has revised its 19b-4 form for an Ether spot ETF. Salm claimed that this move was “important” in an effort for Grayscale to list and trade shares of its Ether Trust on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Arca.

The chief legal officer stated in his post that investors “want and deserve access” to Ethereum via a spot exchange-traded product, likening the situation to the Bitcoin ETF story. “We believe the case is just as strong as it was for spot Bitcoin ETFs,” Salm said.

The asset manager is amongst the numerous firms looking to issue the first Ethereum spot ETF in the United States, having filed an application with the SEC on October 10, 2023. However, these ETF applications have faced delays multiple times, with the most recent coming against BlackRock’s filing on March 4, 2024.

As a result, the likelihood of the SEC approving an Ethereum spot ETF has taken a nosedive in recent weeks. Once-optimistic Bloomberg ETF expert Balchunas even revealed in his latest analysis that the ETH funds now have only a 35% chance of approval.

SEC Chairman Faces Pressure Over Crypto Approval

Two US senators of the Democrat party, Sens. Laphonza Butler of California and Jack Reed of Rhode Island, have urged the SEC chairman to avoid approving crypto investment products. In a letter dated March 11, the lawmakers, who are also members of the Senate Banking Committee, asked the Commission to limit future crypto ETF applications.

Following the approval of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs in January, the attention of the crypto public has somewhat turned to whether the SEC will do the same for the Ethereum versions. However, this latest letter from the senate seems to further hurt the chances of an ETH ETF approval.

A part of the letter read:

Retail investors would face enormous risks from ETPs referencing thinly traded cryptocurrencies or cryptocurrencies whose prices are especially susceptible to pump-and-dump or other fraudulent schemes,” they said. “The Commission is under no obligation to approve such products, and given the risk, it should not do so.

As of this writing, the price of the Ethereum token stands at $3,731, reflecting a 1.2% increase in the past day.

Grayscale

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Goldman Sachs Exec Predict Massive Growth For Digital Assets In 2024

Head of Digital Assets at Goldman Sachs, Matthew McDermott, has projected a massive growth in the cryptocurrency market in 2024. McDermott shared these positive predictions in a recent interview with Fox Business, expressing much optimism in the future of digital assets. 

Goldman Exec Expects Spot ETFs To ‘Gradually’ Boost Institutional Demand For Crypto Assets

Speaking to Fox Business, McDermott has backed the continuous growth of cryptocurrencies as he foresees a rise in the institutional adoption of these assets. 

Notably, the Goldman executive shares popular sentiment with many crypto enthusiasts that the approval of a Bitcoin or Ethereum spot ETF will open up the digital asset ecosystem to more institutional investors who are weary of the market volatility attached to direct crypto investments. 

McDermott said:

One, it broadens and deepens the liquidity in the market. And why does it do that? It does that because you’re actually creating institutional products that can be traded by institutions that don’t need to touch the bare assets. And I think that, to me, that opens up the universe of the pensions, insurers, etc. 

However, McDermott has cautioned crypto enthusiasts against expecting a sudden impact of crypto spot ETFs. He believes the anticipated increased demand and price rise will be a gradual process that will occur over the course of 2024. 

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to grant approval orders to several Bitcoin spot ETF applications in the coming weeks following discussions between the regulator and multiple asset managers. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has set a potential decision window of January 8 – January 10, stating there is a 90% chance the SEC finally delivers a verdict on these various applications putting an end to the 6-months chronicle.

Asset Tokenization In 2024

In addition to potential crypto spot ETFs, McDermott also mentioned a potential increase in commercial blockchain application as another contributing factor to his projected rise in institutional demand for digital assets.

Particularly, he spoke about an improvement in existing tokenization systems, which can lead to the creation of secondary liquidity on blockchains.

He said:

When I think about tokenization, which is obviously a topic that’s kind of talked about quite extensively, I think for me next year what we’ll start to see is the development of marketplaces. So where we start to see scale adoption, particularly across the buy side in the context of investors. And that’s because we’ll start to see the emergence of secondary liquidity on chain, and that’s a key enabler. So for me, that’s one of the key developments for next year.”

At the time of writing, the entire crypto ecosystem is valued at $1.602 trillion, with a 15.09% gain in the last month. The market’s leader Bitcoin currently trades at $42,082, having declined by 1% in the past day.

Goldman Sachs

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Ethereum ETF Race: BlackRock Wants An Ether Spot ETF

BlackRock has joined the Ethereum Spot ETF race as the asset management company has officially applied to the US SEC and is currently waiting for approval. 

BlackRock Files For An Ethereum Spot ETF

Following its Spot Bitcoin ETF filing, BlackRock, an American investment company has taken the proactive step by filing an Ethereum Spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

The asset management company submitted the application on November 15, however, BlackRock has stated it formed the Trust as early as November 9. 

According to BlackRock, the iShares Ethereum Trust would be used to facilitate the ownership of Ether through the issuance of shares, allowing investors to own a fractional undivided beneficial interest in the net assets of the Trust.

“The Trust was formed as a Delaware statutory trust on November 9, 2023. The purpose of the Trust is to own ether transferred to the Trust in exchange for Shares issued by the Trust. Each Share represents a fractional undivided beneficial interest in the net assets of the Trust. The assets of the Trust consist primarily of ether held by the Ether Custodian on behalf of the Trust,” BlackRock said in its filing. 

Presently, the US SEC has not approved any Ethereum Spot ETF filing as well as Spot Bitcoin ETF applications. The regulatory body has delayed multiple applications to be reviewed from January 2024. 

The crypto community has remained enthusiastic that the regulatory agency would eventually approve the pending ETF applications, as this could significantly push the growth and development of the crypto ecosystem as well as the cryptocurrencies involved. 

Ethereum Price Surges

The price of Ethereum is on the rise following BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF filing. The cryptocurrency’s price climbed almost 2% moving to $2,080 at some point following the announcement of the filing.

The sharp reaction has caused a stir in the cryptocurrency community, as investors gear up for a potential bull run if the US SEC gives its official authorization of Ethereum Spot ETFs. 

The price of Bitcoin has also been growing steadily as new companies apply for Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Currently, Bitcoin’s price is trading at $36,408, while ETH is down from its initial surge and trading at $1,952.

The crypto ecosystem is presently watching closely for more updates on the US SEC’s ETF filing approvals and the price changes that follow them.

Ethereum price chart from Tradingview.com (BlackRock Spot Ether ETF)

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Ethereum Price Propels To 52-Weeks High, Here’s What Behind It

Ethereum (ETH) has been experiencing an upward trajectory for quite a while now, reaching its highest yearly price point in the week and presenting an impressive 52-week high. 

Ethereum’s Price Supported By Latest Developments 

The Ethereum’s price surge can be traced back to several factors that have propelled the cryptocurrency’s growth. The asset reached its 52-week high of $2,137 on Thursday, November 9, as seen in the chart below. 

Ethereum

One of the factors that has contributed to the crypto asset’s price surge is the number of ETH staked. A rise in ETH staked, which stood at over 28 million, according to data from Beaconscan. 

As of August, the number of validators in the Beacon Chain was approximately 786,000, but today that number is currently at 884,000. This indicates confidence in Ethereum’s long-term stability, which can be promising to investors.

In addition, the token’s on-chain volume has also increased significantly over time. Recent data shows that the asset’s volume now sits at approximately 2.62 billion from 1.5 billion as of September. This indicates an over 70% increase since September.

Blackrock’s Spot Ethereum ETF Sparks Increase

The most recent development that has propelled the asset’s price is BlackRock‘s registration of a spot Ethereum Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). Since the firm made known its registration of a Spot Ethereum ETF, there has been quite an improvement encompassing the cryptocurrency.

Blackrock is the world’s largest asset manager with trillions of dollars in assets under management, the firm that has also applied for a Bitcoin spot ETF. The firm applied for a Bitcoin spot ETF in June 2023. However, it is awaiting a decision from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

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$9 Trillion BlackRock Files Ethereum Spot ETF, What’s So Special About It?

Following BlackRock’s official filing of Spot Ethereum with Nasdaq, reports have confirmed that BlackRock’s Ether ETF plan has been confirmed by Nasdaq and is on its way to the US SEC to gain final approval. 

BlackRock Ethereum Spot ETF Confirmed

American multinational investment company, BlackRock has been making waves in the crypto space after news spread of NASDAQ listing the investment firm’s Ethereum Spot ETF, iShares Ether Trust in Delaware.

“BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF confirmed. They just submitted a 19b-4 filing with Nasdaq,” Bloomberg Research Analyst, Jeff Seyffart stated. 

While BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF proposal remains to be approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the $9 trillion asset management company has placed its focus on Ethereum Spot ETFs while it waits for the SEC’s final decision on Spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

The news of the Nasdaq Ethereum ETF filing comes as a major development for BlackRock’s move into the ETF world. Although the investment company remains tight-lipped on the ETH ETF reports flowing through the space, the possibility of an Ether Spot ETF approval could be a sign of the SEC’s approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the future. 

Many crypto enthusiasts have predicted that the US SEC may continue its efforts to stop the growth of Spot Bitcoin ETFs by declining BlackRock’s Ether Spot ETF filing. 

However, in the case the regulatory body does approve the asset management company’s Ethereum Spot ETF, the SEC could be faced with potential contradictions in its decision-making processes. The acceptance of ETH Spot ETFs would stand in stark contrast to the previous disapproval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Presently, the crypto community has been largely positive, as market metrics signal a potential rally for altcoins following BlackRock’s Ethereum Spot ETF confirmation. 

A crypto member has stated that the asset management company’s move into Ether Spot ETFs indicates strategic confidence in securing approval for Spot Bitcoin ETF in the future. 

ETH Price Skyrockets

Following the news of NASDAQ registering BlackRock’s Ethereum Spot ETF, the price of ETH has increased by over 9% and is currently trading at $2,086.92 according to CoinMarketCap.

Reports of the Ethereum Spot ETF filing have sparked a rally in the cryptocurrency, topping over $2,000 for the first time since April this year. ETH’s market volume has also increased by 171.53%.

Many crypto investors are looking forward to more positive developments in the cryptocurrency regarding Ethereum Spot ETFs as an official approval may indicate a potential long-term bull run for ETH.

Ethereum price chart from Tradingview.com (BlackRock Spot ETF)