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Genesis Bankruptcy by EOY Now At 59% – Sentiment Of Bitcoin Investors Pivots

A possible Chapter 11 bankruptcy of Genesis Trading and parent company DCG is still depressing the sentiment on the Bitcoin market. Genesis last commented on Twitter on November 16. Parent company DCG last spoke out on November 18 via the social media platform.

Investors, however, seem to take a rather positive view of the silence. As recent data from the world’s largest decentralized prediction market Polymarket shows market participants now estimate the probability of a Genesis insolvency at only 59% by the end of year (EOY).

The peak value was 81%. Thus, the narrative appears to have pivoted to the extent that the problem is fixable for Genesis and DCG. Expert opinions currently suggest that it is more of a liquidity shortage than a solvency problem for DCG.

Genesis bankruptcy Bitcoin implications

Source: Twitter

Bitcoin Experts Warn Against False Panic

Bitcoin OG Samson Mow explained that the DCG group has real assets and income-generating businesses, and the problem is primarily a liquidity shortage.

According to Mow, Genesis and DCG have enough assets to pay debts, they’re just not available in cash. The worst-case scenario, a bankruptcy of Genesis and DCG “seems unlikely” for him.

Since DCG has high revenues and assets, insolvency of Genesis would not be the end of the parent company. To that extent, Mow considers the theory that Grayscale could be liquidated and the 634,000 BTC could hit the open market also “an unlikely outcome.”

DCG still has a number of good assets, including Grayscale, which generates around $500 to $800 million a year in management fees. According to Mow, the likely outcome is a restructuring or an outright buyout by a bigger player.

Ryan Selkis, founder of Messari, currently strikes a similar tone. He also warns against scaremongering that DCG can simply “dump” its GBTC shares. “That’s part of their liquidity crisis, but also net good news for GBTC shareholders and FUD fighting,” Selkis said.

The reason is that Grayscale has to follow strict rules. Thus, DCG cannot simply sell its nearly $800 million worth of GBTC shares because it is not an ETF as desired but a listed vehicle that falls under Rule 144.

Because of this, there are two important restrictions. DCG must make public a notice of proposed sales. Furthermore, there are caps on sales of 1% of outstanding shares or weekly trading volume.

Given GBTC has a daily volume of ~4.5mm shares that works out to quarterly cap on sales of 2.5mm shares ($23mm / quarter) under the trading test and 6.9mm shares ($62mm / quarter) under the asset test.

If Grayscale were to start forced sales, it would send the price of GBTC further down, and the discount would continue to grow. According to Selkis, this liquidity problem makes it much more likely that DCG-Genesis will refinance using GBTC as collateral.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $16,157. Thus, the next important resistance is currently at $16,310, while the support at $16,050 is of major concern.

Bitcoin BTC USD 2022-11-28

Bitcoin price, 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
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Genesis / DCG: All Cool Again? Bitcoin Investors Should Be Cautions

The Bitcoin price plunged to a new bear market low at $15,487 on Monday after rumors intensified that Genesis Trading and Digital Currency Group (DCG), which also owns Grayscale with its 635,000 BTC strong GBTC, would go bankrupt.

Since then, the Bitcoin price is recording a relief rally. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $16.598 and faced the crucial resistance zone at $16,000. If this resistance is overcome, a quick candle towards $17,500 to $18,000 could be on the table.

Bitcoin rally ahead of DCG announcement?

Bitcoin price, 1-hour-chart. Source: TradingView

DCG /Genesis Safe?

Bitcoin investors, however, might be asking themselves what has changed in the whole misery surrounding Genesis / DCG and Grayscale?

DCG CEO Barry Silbert released a putative letter to investors yesterday. In it, the CEO explained that while DCG owes $575 million to its own trading arm, Genesis Trading, it is not due until May 2023.

Silbert also emphasized that DCG will have revenues of $800 million in 2022. While this represents a decline of about 20% from the previous year, Silbert said that revenues should still be sufficient to pay Genesis.

Further, the DCG CEO also confirmed the the company owes Genesis $1.1 billion on a promissory note that matures in June 2032 and is related to the Three Arrows Capital default.

“Genesis leadership and their board decided to hire financial and legal advisors, and the firm is exploring all possible options amidst the fallout from the implosion of FTX,” Silbert affirmed in his letter, adding that “we will let you know if we decide to do a financing round.”

The letter seems to have calmed the market. However, Crypto-Twitter is still puzzling over possible scenarios around how DCG can overcome its precarious financial situation. One of the main sources of rumors in recent days Andrew Parish, co-founder of ArchPublic, continues to claim an internal, anonymous sources.

Parish accuses DCG of bluffing and claims that Silbert’s note was not sent to investors. He claims to have heard from several investors and creditors of DCG and Genesis:

This wasn’t sent to us first, we didn’t see it until it was posted online/twitter.

It’s all optics to soften a Genesis bankruptcy for DCG… and lawsuits that will follow.

An All-Good Solution?

Parish also dismissed Messari co-founder Ryan Selkis’ supposed “solution”. Selkis suggested that some of the Genesis creditors could convert their claims into DCG preferred or debt and warrants (“the Buffett-Goldman deal”), “potentially led by a reputable debt or growth fund”.

There’s a lot of things that led to this mess, but the current situation seems salvageable. I have no stake in this directly, just want to see a good resolution, and there’s not much time.

Parish countered that DCG and Genesis “have yet to have any meaningful dialogue with Genesis creditors,” as he was told by supposedly major investors.

So what’s the deal? No one knows at this time, except presumably DCG CEO Barry Silbert! Stay safe.

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NYDIG Analyzed The FTX Collapse And Its Implications. What Did We Learn?

It’s time for NYDIG to chip in. The FTX fiasco is the theme of the month in the crypto world, and the show’s just beginning. The NYDIG research team avoids the temptation to summarize the whole saga and goes straight to the implications of the fall of Sam Bankman-Fried’s empire. “Some signs of contagion have appeared but a full accounting of the damage and regaining of investor confidence will likely take time,” they say understating the harsh reality. 

Taking a page from NYDIG’s book, let’s skip the intro and go straight to the conclusions.

Contagion Is Around The Corner

Speaking about “signs of contagion,” NYDIG mentions BlockFi and the Genesis/ Gemini combo. However, there might be much more to come.

“Several other service providers have piqued the curiosity of crypto sleuths as potential next dominoes, but we hesitate to speculate too much without hard evidence. Regardless, industry participants are on edge for even the slightest signs of stress and continue to pull balances off exchanges.”

In the contagion section of the paper, we find a rare mention of a conspiracy theory that’s making the rounds in crypto twitter. Rarely do big players bring this up. Of course, NYDIG ends up doubling down on the thesis about Terra/Luna that they put out in a previous paper titled “On Impossible Things Before Breakfast.”

“There have been accusations that Alameda caused the initial de-peg of UST, and while that may have been the case, uneconomic rates paid by the Anchor Protocol and insecure economic design of LUNA/UST ensured its ultimate destruction, destroying $60B worth of crypto wealth in a few short days.”

In the previous paper, NYDIG printed a great segway to the next section. “DeFi is not decentralized. The Terra ecosystem was not decentralized. Terra initially sourced funding from LUNA token issuance apportioned to Terraform Labs at inception.”

FTTUSD price chart - TradingView

FTT price chart on Bitstamp | Source: FTT/USD on TradingView.com

NYDIG On DeFi Vs. CeFi

Even though they’re clearly not fans of DeFi, NYDIG gives them some credit. “Most DeFi protocols operated as advertised through the volatility this year, minus the ongoing hacks within the ecosystem.” True, but the ongoing hacks are not a minor factor. It’s a billion-dollar problem with no apparent solution available. However, according to NYDIG, this time the problem lies with centralized finance, and those companies “did the rest of the damage” by engaging in these behaviors:

“Poor risk controls, conflicts of interest, excessive leverage, unclear accounting, counterparty risks, and poor management were just some of the factors at play. Furthermore, the use of an equity-like token, FTX Token (FTT), as collateral exacerbated the issue.”

Is More Regulation The Answer?

According to NYDIG, the industry was expecting “improved regulatory clarity for US investors.” However, thanks to the FTX crash and Sam Bankman-Fried’s political lobbying, “the path in DC has grown more complicated. Regulators will now be on their toes and increasingly more likely to use their current authority to enforce existing regulations and possibly issue new ones.”

It is what it is, however one has to take into account that “FTX.com wasn’t even a US entity, which raises the question of how impactful improved US regulations would have been, at least with respect to preventing the specific recent events surrounding FTX.” That’s true, but FTX was in business with several US fully regulated entities. If effective, shouldn’t Silvergate’s AML procedures have detected Sam Bankman-Fried’s shenanigans? 

A related question would be, shouldn’t the due diligence of the highly regarded entities that invested in FTX have detected that something was off?

Featured Image by Kaleidico on Unsplash | Charts by TradingView

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Summary Of The Contagion Event That Brought On The Bear Market

Are we in a bear market? Opinions vary, but it certainly feels like one. Markets across the board and across the world are in the red, and the bitcoin and crypto ones are no exception. If you’ve been paying attention, you know how all of this happened, but a refresher course wouldn’t hurt. Using ARK Invest’s latest Bitcoin Monthly report as a guide, let’s go through the tragic sequence of events and evaluate the bitcoin market as it stands.

According to ARK, the road to the bear market went like this: 

“Beginning with the Terra collapse in early May, contagion spread to major crypto lenders including Blockfi, Celsius, Babel, Voyager, CoinFlex, contributing to the insolvency of the once highly-respected hedge fund, Three Arrows Capital (3AC). Since Terra’s collapse, total crypto market capitalization has dropped ~$640 billion.”

Nevertheless, there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel. “Promisingly, however, recent fallout (Babel, Voyager, CoinFlex, Finblox) appears lower in magnitude compared to Terra, Celsius, and 3AC.” That doesn’t mean the end of the bear market is near, nor that capitulation is already over. Especially if the Mt. Gox victims receive the rumored 150K BTC.

First, let’s follow ARK as they analyze two of the main players in this drama. Then, let’s check the stats of the bitcoin market to see if we can find signs and clues that point out to the end of the capitulation stage. SPOILER ALERT: The jury is still out on that one. Some signs point to an early end, others to further downside. Aren’t bear markets fun?

Celsius And The Bear Market

When Terra fell, the earth trembled. The Luna Foundation Guard sold nearly all of their 80K BTC reserve trying to defend the UST peg to the dollar. This event could’ve been the catalyst for the bear market. The worst was yet to come, though. Several once-respected institutions were heavily exposed to Terra through its Anchor protocol, and the UST collapse sent them all into a still ongoing death spiral. 

According to ARK, “Celsius froze withdrawals on June 12th in response to significant outflows. Its DeFi debt outstanding is $631 million but the magnitude of its nonDeFi exposure is unclear.” There was still hope for its clients, as the company paid several loans. However, Celsius filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, leaving them all high and dry.

The Chief Commercial Officer at Choise.com, Andrey Diyakonov, analyzed the situation for NewsBTC:

“To put things into perspective, we need to turn it upside down, and ask, how much of the recent price action on the markets was influenced by or outright created by Celsius’ actions? What goes around always comes around. It’s so much more ironic given those credible reports that Celsius withdrawals were among those that sent UST and Terra position down the rabbit hole to find out where the bottom is.”

Our team covered that particular claim and the company’s response.

Three Arrows Capital And The Death Spiral

Then, there was “Three Arrows Capital (3AC), a highly regarded crypto hedge fund reportedly managing $18 billion at its peak, appears to be insolvent after taking on too much leverage.” That’s according to ARK, who also says, “Seemingly, 3AC took on excess leverage to try and recover the losses. Its creditors included major players in the industry like Genesis, BlockFi, Voyager, and FTX.”

All of those companies except FTX seem to be counting down to extinction. 

BTC price chart for 07/15/2022 on Velocity | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
Is The Bear Market Just Beginning Or About To End?

Is the bottom in? Opinions vary. In a section titled “Market Contagion Sets Bitcoin Into Capitulation,” ARK analyzes all of the indicators and can’t reach a final conclusion. The numbers are extremely interesting, though.

  • “Down 70% from its all-time high, bitcoin is trading at or below some of its most important levels: its 200-week moving average, the general cost basis of the market (realized price), the cost bases of long-term (LTH) and short-term holders (STH), and its 2017 peak.”

This “suggests extremely oversold conditions,” which is a great sign. However…

  • “Historically, global bottoms occur when the MVRV of short-term holders exceeds the MVRV of long-term holders. That condition has not been met, suggesting the potential for more downside.”

The “condition has not been met,” but it’s close. Very close.

  • “This month, miners generated revenues only 45% of that for the last twelve months, breaching a threshold that usually correlates with market bottoms.”

Miners who didn’t practice proper risk management have been selling at the present low levels. Miners who know what they’re doing will keep holding until we come out of the bear market. The question is, how many companies are in the first group and haven’t sold just yet? 

  • “Net realized losses in bitcoin recently reached a 2-year low, breaching 0.5% for only the fourth time since 2013.”

Historically, this suggests capitulation is over. Or is it?

  • “Bitcoin’s net unrealized loss has hit a 3-year low, highlighting that its current market value is nearly 17% lower than that of its aggregate cost basis. Historically, global bottoms have formed when losses hit 25%+.”

If we’re going to reach 25%, that means there’s still a long way to go.

Is the bear market just beginning or about to end? The data is unclear. But capitulation seems to be nearing its end, which would be the first step in the right direction.

Featured Image by Marc-Olivier Jodoin on Unsplash | Charts by TradingView

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How To Add Bitcoin To The Balance Sheet For Corporations, With Saylor & Dorsey

Is your company ready to buy the Bitcoin dip? Saylor and Dorsey will give you the 411 for free.99. The MicroStrategy World annual conference goes live on February 1st. Learn directly from these two titans of the industry, who have definitely been among Bitcoin’s main proponents and promoters over the last few years. 

Michael Saylor has led by example, buying every dip, and is a constant presence in mainstream media. His interviews are more like classes and the attention they get is outstanding. Jack Dorsey, for his part, left Twitter to focus on Bitcoin. Since then, his Block company announced several projects that’ll definitely strengthen the Bitcoin network.

About the MicroStrategy World conference, the press release promises it’ll be “focused on Enterprise Analytics and Bitcoin for Corporations. World 2022 is 100% virtual, and—for the first time ever—access to all sections of the conference is free of charge.” That’s an unbeatable price.

What Will Saylor And Dorsey Talk About?

The conference has two sides, two different events that showcase MicroStrategy’s duality:

“The Enterprise Analytics event will introduce bold new ways to think about analytics and business intelligence, and showcase organizations who’ve used data as a strategic differentiator. The Bitcoin for Corporations event will explore the various benefits of incorporating Bitcoin into corporate initiatives.”

Join me and Keynote Presenter @jack at the 2nd Annual Bitcoin for Corporations Feb 1 & 2. This free, virtual conference is a must for any corporation considering integrating #Bitcoin with their products & services, or adding #BTC to their balance sheet.https://t.co/V9fIkv633q

— Michael Saylor⚡ (@saylor) January 20, 2022

As you might expect, NewsBTC will focus on the second event. It’s important to say that both Dorsey and Saylor’s companies have Bitcoin on their balance sheet. These two put their money where their mouth is, and then some. In any case, what does MicroStrategy World promise?

“An in-depth discussion on Bitcoin between two visionary voices: Jack Dorsey, CEO of Block, Inc., and Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy Inc. This session will be followed by a discussion on Bitcoin Treasury with Phong Le (President and CFO, MicroStrategy). Bitcoin for Corporations will also feature live interviews with industry experts from Coinbase, Deloitte, Fidelity Digital Assets, Genesis, Jefferies, NYDIG, Paxos, and Silvergate Bank.”

It’s noteworthy that Fidelity Digital Assets recently shocked the world by predicting more countries and probably a Central Bank or two would add Bitcoin to their balance sheet in the next few years. Christine Sandler, Fidelity’s Head of Sales & Marketing, will represent the company at the conference. 

Saylor ’s Recent Bitcoin History

Since MicroStrategy first added Bitcoin to its balance sheet in August 2020, the company has increased the bet every few months. They issued common stock. They sold stocks. They bought, and bought, and bought, and bought. In a recent interview, Saylor explained the strategy and NewsBTC reported:

“Look, our long term strategy is kind of like Harvard University. We’re running a university but we have an endowment. MicroStrategy is selling enterprise software. We generate $100 million in cash flow a year – in a good year – and we are reinvesting that cash in our endowment. Our endowment is 100% bitcoin.”

Saylor adds that MicroStrategy plans to acquire and hold bitcoin as a balance sheet. As for the operations, the company will continue to sell its enterprise software everywhere in the world.”

Related to this, about MicroStrategy’s free conference, Saylor said:

“We have gained a wealth of experience and expertise innovating our treasury strategy and evolving our corporate bitcoin acquisition strategy. And we’re pleased to be in a position to share our knowledge—via this curated event—for corporations looking to pursue similar strategies and bold initiatives.”

Dorsey’s Recent Bitcoin History

For his part, Dorsey’s strategy is much different than Saylor’s. He’s working in infrastructure. Dorsey’s fortifying the network’s weak parts. Among other things, Block announced they’re building a decentralized Bitcoin exchange called tbDEX. Released the Lightning Development Kit. And announced they’re working in an open-source ASIC miner. 

On a personal level, Dorsey and rapper Jay-Z put 500 BTC in a blind trust to promote Bitcoin development in Africa and India. And created the Bitcoin Defense Legal Fund to protect developers from all kinds of lawsuits.

BTC price chart for 01/21/2022 on Gemini | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
The Price Of Bitcoin

Despite Saylor’s and Dorsey’s efforts, Bitcoin is bleeding. On one hand, Proof-Of-Stake proponents straight up lied before U.S. Congress in a hearing about Proof-Of-Work’s environmental risks. On the other, there’s a rumor that Russia is considering banning Bitcoin in some capacity. Both of those situations caused panic in the market, and Bitcoin’s price is currently 40% lower than the ATH of $69K. 

Will Michael Saylor buy the dip? 

Featured Image: screenshot from the conference’s website | Charts by TradingView