Posted on

Grayscale Moves Nearly $1 Billion Worth Of Bitcoin In Past Month – Report

According to the latest report, asset management firm Grayscale has been transferring large amounts of Bitcoin to various wallet addresses over the past month. This data revelation comes days after the asset manager’s application to convert its Bitcoin trust to a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) was approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

It is believed that the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is one of the largest Bitcoin entities in the world. In September 2023, crypto analytics platform Arkham Intelligence discovered the asset manager’s multi-billion dollar BTC holdings across more than 1,750 wallet addresses.

How Much Did Grayscale Send To Coinbase?

CryptoQuant’s founder Ki Young Ju revealed  – via a post on the X platform – that Grayscale has moved about 21,400 BTC to different wallet addresses in the last 30 days. The CEO also highlighted that some of the funds were sent to Coinbase, the largest centralized exchange in the United States.

Specifically, the recent conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to a spot BTC ETF has put some spotlight on the firm’s funds movement in recent days. This is because the shares of GBTC are now redeemable for Bitcoin following the ETF approval on January 10.

However, Arkham Intelligence data on Friday, January 12, a day after the spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in the US, revealed that Grayscale’s Bitcoin trust sent 894 BTC (about $41 million) to Coinbase in a single transaction. This amount sent to the exchange represents about 0.15% of GBTC’s total holdings.

Arkham’s data shows that an additional $119 million in BTC was sent to other addresses on January 12. Interestingly, these funds outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust are believed to have caused the sudden downturn in the price of BTC on Friday.

Popular crypto trader Ran Neuner agreed with this belief, saying that the Bitcoin price is “dumping” as investors are selling their GBTC shares. Neuner said in his post on X:

GBTC held $25bn+ worth of Bitcoin that has been locked up for years with no option to be sold. As soon as the redemption option opened, for the first time people are starting to exit – as they exit the Bitcoin must be sold on the market.

Bitcoin Price Overview

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at $42,805, reflecting a 7% decline in the past 24 hours. The premier cryptocurrency has reversed most of its gains in the past week after initially falling to below $42,000 on Friday.

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin’s price is down by about 2.5% in the last seven days. Nevertheless, BTC maintains its position as the largest cryptocurrency in the sector, with a market cap of $838 billion.

Grayscale

Posted on

Cathie Wood’s ARK ETF Overhauls Bitcoin Portfolio: ProShares In, Grayscale Out – What’s The Strategy?

In a significant shake-up of its Bitcoin (BTC)-related holdings, Cathie Wood’s ARK Next Generation Internet exchange-traded fund (ETF) has made strategic changes as BTC ends the year with a significant 156% surge.

According to a Bloomberg report, the ETF sold all its remaining 2.25 million shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) while acquiring 4.32 million shares of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF. 

Caution As Reason For Exiting Grayscale Bitcoin Trust

According to Bloomberg, Wood cited caution as the reason behind the sale of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. The move was prompted by concerns that the anticipated conversion of the trust to a spot Bitcoin ETF might not receive approval from US regulators in early January. 

Additionally, Wood highlighted the substantial reduction in the trust’s discount to its net asset value, which, combined with its price increase, influenced the decision.

Wood emphasized the unpredictability surrounding which Bitcoin-related offerings would gain regulatory approval, expressing optimism about Bitcoin while acknowledging the uncertainty ahead.

In this regard, Bloomberg ETF expert Erich Balchunas highlights that approximately $100 million of the proceeds were used to purchase the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), likely as a liquid transition vehicle to maintain exposure to Bitcoin while gradually transitioning into either ARKW or ARKB.

Bitcoin

Interestingly, ARK has now become the second-largest holder of BITO, although Balchunas clarifies that this is a temporary parking spot. Blachunas emphasizes that institutions, including ARK, often employ highly liquid ETFs for transitions of this nature. 

Balchunas also points out that this move aligns with the prediction made by Bloomberg a month ago, reflecting strategic foresight on ARK’s part. 

According to Balchunas, this decision is smart as it allows ARK to boost its own ETF’s assets under management (AUM) while saving investors from incurring a significant expense ratio in the process.

Wood’s Long-Term Vision

Per the report, the reduction in holdings of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has been a gradual process for Cathie Wood, even as the price of Bitcoin surged to its highest level since April 2022. 

Throughout 2023, Bitcoin more than doubled in value, with significant gains occurring towards the end of the year amid speculation that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would approve spot Bitcoin ETFs in the first days of January 2024.

During the Sohn Australia conference last month, Wood touted the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust as her top pick. However, recent developments have led to a shift in the ETF’s portfolio composition.

In addition to the changes involving Grayscale and ProShares, the ARK ETF also purchased 20,000 shares of the ARK 21Shares Active Bitcoin Futures Strategy ETF and sold 148,885 shares of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global, according to the fund’s report.

The ARK Next Generation Internet ETF has achieved an impressive 103% gain for the year, surpassing the 55% advance of the Nasdaq 100 Index. 

It is worth noting that the fund’s performance has been characterized by significant volatility, experiencing declines of 19% and 67% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

Bitcoin

The leading cryptocurrency in the market is trading at $42,800, exhibiting a sideways price movement over the past 24 hours. During this timeframe, there has been a marginal decrease of 0.3% in its value.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

Posted on

Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF Conversion Could Lead To $2.7 Billion Exodus: JPMorgan

In a new analysis, JPMorgan has raised concerns about the potential outflow of funds following the possible conversion of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF. The banking giant estimates that the conversion could prompt investors to withdraw at least $2.7 billion.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, a pivotal force in the previous bull market, has seen its discount to Bitcoin’s current market price shrink from -46% at the beginning of the year to -9.77% by November 22, the lowest level since mid-August 2021. Notably, this reduction in discount is important because it indicates that investors are expecting the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve Grayscale’s conversion to a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, JP Morgan has cautioned that this conversion might lead to some instability in the market.

$2.7 Billion Exodus Following Bitcoin ETF Approval?

JPMorgan analysts, including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, have scrutinized the inflows into GBTC since the beginning of 2023, revealing a calculated strategy by traders to exploit the discount for profit upon ETF conversion. The bank’s methodology considered the cumulative signed dollar volume, accounting for both the volume of shares traded and the direction of the price movement.

The analysts posit that this influx, primarily driven by speculation over GBTC’s conversion to an ETF, will likely reverse as investors seek to capitalize on the arbitrage opportunity presented by the narrowing of the discount to net asset value. The minimum anticipated outflow, upon conversion to an ETF, stands at $2.7 billion.

However, this could escalate if GBTC’s current fee structure, standing at 200 basis points, isn’t significantly reduced post-conversion. The competitive landscape, as suggested by the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF’s 80 basis points fee, necessitates such a reduction for GBTC to maintain its market dominance.

The impact on the market could be profound. A full withdrawal of the $2.7 billion could exert substantial downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. However, JPMorgan analysts believe that much of this capital will likely be reallocated to other Bitcoin-related instruments, mitigating any drastic market disturbance.

They predict a reconfiguration of assets, shifting from $23 billion in GBTC and $5 billion in other funds to $20 billion in the trust and $8 billion in other vehicles. Nonetheless, they caution that a portion of the funds may exit the Bitcoin space entirely, which would pose a risk of a downturn in Bitcoin prices.

Remarkably, JP Morgan analysts led by Panigirtzoglou have predicted in early September that the SEC will be forced to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs after losing the case against Grayscale. Moreover, JP Morgan’s forecast hinges on the assumption that the approval of a batch of ETFs will ignite more intense competition among Bitcoin investment products, likely resulting in a fee structure more aligned with those of Gold ETFs, typically around 50 basis points.

As the market awaits the SEC’s decision, the primary concern remains: Whether the anticipated GBTC outflows will find a new home within the Bitcoin space or if they will signify a broader withdrawal from BTC investments.

At press time, BTC traded at $37,560.

Bitcoin price

Posted on

Bitcoin Could See A 50% Rise Based On This, Analyst Explains

An analyst has explained that a pattern in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) could suggest a potential 50% rise for BTC may be ahead.

Bitcoin & GBTC Have Seen A Decoupling In Recent Months

In a new post on X, analyst James V. Straten has discussed the correlation between GBTC and BTC that has been present over the years. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is an investment vehicle that holds Bitcoin and allows exposure to these holdings through its shares.

The chart below shows the trend in the percentage performance of Bitcoin and GBTC, as well as the correlation coefficient between them, over the past year.

Bitcoin & GBTC

The “correlation coefficient” here refers to a metric that tells us how tied the prices of any two assets are. When this metric has a positive value, the given commodities show positive correlations as they replicate each other’s moves. The closer the metric is to 1, the stronger this relationship is.

On the other hand, negative values imply the assets are responding to each other’s moves by moving in the opposite direction. The strongest negative correlation occurs at a value of -1.

Naturally, when the correlation coefficient is around zero, there isn’t any correlation between the commodities, as their prices move independently.

From the above graph, it’s apparent that Bitcoin and GBTC have often had a correlation coefficient close to 1, implying that there has been a robust positive correlation between the two.

There have been some temporary periods of deviation, mainly during drawdowns in the cryptocurrency’s price and other significant events like the SVB collapse. The correlation reverted to the norm soon after these, however.

Straten says this correlation is especially striking in a 5-year timeframe, where it becomes 100%. The analyst also notes, however, that the two assets have decoupled since June.

As is visible in the chart, GBTC has enjoyed some sharp uptrend recently, while BTC has been mostly flat. GBTC’s performance currently stands at +81% during the past year, while Bitcoin is up about 43%.

“GBTC will be the first to be approved for the spot ETF before Blackrock and others,” says Straten, referring to what British HODL, another analyst, said earlier. “Price action agrees with this. Irrespective of whether it’s late Q3 or early Q4, it’s a six-month window from now.”

Based on this, the analyst believes that either Bitcoin will have to close up the gap created between it and GBTC since June, which would mean a price jump of around 50%, or GBTC would have to come down towards BTC. Straten believes the latter scenario to be unlikely, however.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has declined over the past few days as its price has dropped to just $27,100.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Posted on

Grayscale CEO Highlights US Opportunity To Lead Crypto Space Through Regulation

The chief executive of Grayscale, a leading digital asset management firm, believes that the United States has a significant opportunity to dominate the cryptocurrency space by shaping effective regulations. 

In a recent interview with Yahoo Finance, Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein expressed optimism about the progress made in the past year and highlighted the bipartisan support for crypto-related legislation. 

Sonnenshein emphasized the importance of lawmakers’ understanding of the crypto industry and urged Congress to actively engage with the issue to foster innovation and create robust financial and regulatory frameworks.

Grayscale CEO Urges Congress To Support Crypto

Sonnenshein commended the “groundbreaking” work done by regulators and lawmakers in Washington over the past 12 months, acknowledging the efforts of Chairman McHenry, Congressman Hill, and Senators Lummis and Gillibrand. 

The Grayscale CEO emphasized that crypto has become a nonpartisan issue, with members of Congress increasingly recognizing its long-term presence and importance.

Sonnenshein praised the bills that have made progress and are set for further votes in the fall, highlighting the need for broader member support and ongoing engagement on crypto-related topics.

Moreover, Sonnenshein underscored the growing involvement of constituents who are part of the crypto space and stressed the importance of elected officials aligning their positions accordingly. 

With upcoming elections and various catalysts on the horizon, Sonnenshein urged members of Congress to actively engage with the crypto industry, given its increasing significance and the need for comprehensive financial and regulatory frameworks, expressing optimism about the current momentum surrounding crypto legislation and the unprecedented level of engagement from lawmakers.

Grayscale’s GBTC Inches Closer To ETF Conversion?

Regarding the recent court order that vacated the SEC’s denial order for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) application to convert to an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), Sonnenshein addressed the ongoing process and emphasized the organization’s commitment to full and fair disclosures. 

Grayscale has been litigating to convert GBTC into an Bitcoin (BTC) Spot ETF, as it would provide investors with additional protections, disclosures, and reporting obligations. 

On this matter, Sonnenshein stated that constructive dialogue with the SEC is anticipated once the 45-day process is complete, and the organization looks forward to pursuing the next steps expediently.

Furthermore, Sonnenshein highlighted the significant recognition given to the crypto industry by global entities such as the G20 and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), emphasizing the opportunity for the United States to establish itself as the center of the global capital markets ecosystem by implementing the right frameworks. 

Notably, Sonnenshein advocated for maintaining an open-door policy for innovation and positioning the US as a leader in the crypto space.

Overall, Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein’s interview emphasized the United States’ chance to dominate the crypto space through effective regulation. With bipartisan support and increasing awareness among lawmakers, Sonnenshein urged Congress to engage actively and build momentum around crypto-related legislation. 

Grayscale

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com