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The Most Intense Consensus Ever Seeks Everyone’s Voice

This year’s CoinDesk Consensus event, which will bring key policy and technical debates to the forefront, is especially important. While the withdrawal of a handful of previously agreed-upon speaking assignments undermines full representation on both sides of the issues, non-U.S. jurisdiction involvement will make 2023’s Consensus one to remember.

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New Data Shows China Still Controls 21% Of The Global Bitcoin Mining Hashrate

China is back with a vengeance. The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, or CCAF, collected data “spanning the period from September 2021 to January 2022” for their latest study. The headline is that, ban or no ban, the Asian country controls 21% of the Global Bitcoin mining hashrate. Since June 2021, here in NewsBTC, we’ve been wracking our brains trying to figure out why did China ban bitcoin mining. Maybe we were barking at the wrong tree the whole time. 

According to the CCAF’s numbers, unsurprisingly the “US has remained at the forefront of Bitcoin mining and extended its leading position (37.84%).” For their part, “China has re-emerged as a major mining hub (21.11%). Kazakhstan (13.22%), Canada (6.48%), and Russia (4.66%) have been relegated to more distant places.” Let’s see what else can we learn from the CCAF’s numbers.

Is China All The Way Back? How Did This Happen? 

As it turns out, the CCAF analysis uncovered numbers that “strongly suggest that significant underground mining activity has formed in the country”. Can we be sure that the explanation is real? And if it is, how did the underground China bitcoin mining industry surge so fast?

“Following the government ban in June 2021, reported hashrate for the entire country effectively plummeted to zero during the months of July and August. Yet reported hashrate suddenly surged back to 30.47 EH/s in September 2021, instantly catapulting China to second place globally in terms of installed mining capacity (22.29% of total market).”

The report wonders what happened, “a comeback of this magnitude within the period of one month would seem unlikely given physical constraints, as it takes time to find existing or build new non-traceable hosting facilities at that scale”. And theorizes that maybe the underground miners were using VPNs to hide their location and then, suddenly, decided that they were safe enough to stop hiding. Which seems unlikely.

BTC price chart for 05/18/2022 on Bitfinex | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
Non-China Countries

Sadly but predictably, the study also found out that “the hashrate recovery has not been distributed evenly”. How did the non-China countries in the Top 5 do?

  • The United States “surpassed the rest of the world in terms of hashrate growth. This is evidenced by installed capacity surging from 42.74 EH/s (35.40%) in August 2021 to 70.97 EH/s (37.84%) in January 2022.”
  • In Kazakhstan, for their part, “Total hashrate continued to increase in September and peaked at 27.31 EH/s in October, until repeated power outages towards the end of last year, and a week-long internet shutdown earlier this year, forced miners to temporarily suspend operations.”
  • Surprisingly, “Russia on the other hand not only experienced a substantial drop in relative hashrate share from 11.23% in August 2021 to 4.66% in January 2022, but also a significant decline in total installed mining capacity contribution from 13.56 EH/s to 8.74 EH/s over the same period.”
  • Last but not least, “Canada experienced only a moderate increase in its hashrate from 11.54 EH/s in August 2021 to 12.15 EH/s in January 2022, which resulted in a loss in market share from 9.55% to 6.48% as total network hashrate was growing significantly faster. ”

The CCAF Spreads FUD

Of course, the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance couldn’t pass the opportunity to spread some unfounded rumors about bitcoin mining. This is what the CCAF said: 

“These geographic shifts in mining activities bring to the fore how relocations impact the overall sustainability of the network. For instance, recent research has suggested that the Chinese decision to ban Bitcoin mining has indeed worsened – rather than improved – Bitcoin’s environmental footprint.”

The CCAF is using this study’s findings, which basically says that they NOW believe what bitcoiners always said. That China was mostly using hydropower energy for bitcoin mining, and not coal. The fact is, as far as using green energy goes, bitcoin mining continues to be the cleanest industry in the world. 

Whenever we find intentional FUD spreading like this one right here, we have to check out who paid for the study. As it turns out, the numbers come directly from the Cambridge Digital Assets Programme. The CCAF host the CDAP “in collaboration with 16 prominent public and private institutions”. Among them, we find the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Mastercard, Visa, and the World Bank.

And right then, everything made sense.

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IMF Report On El Salvador Is Positive… Except For Everything Bitcoin-Related

In a recent report, the IMF praises the way El Salvador handled the COVID-19 situation and announces that their economy grew 10% in 2021. The International Monetary Fund also recognizes El Salvador’s government efforts to reduce crime, “diversify the energy matrix, foster economic diversification, and enhance financial inclusion.” However, when it comes to Bitcoin, the IMF is completely against it. As they should. Because Bitcoin renders the IMF irrelevant.

But first, let’s learn what the report titled “El Salvador: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2021 Article IV Mission” is about:

“A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement.”

Anyway, let’s go to the IMF’s wacky opinions about Bitcoin.

BTC price chart for 11/23/2021 on Oanda | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
What Does The IMF Think About Bitcoin As Legal Tender?

After praising El Salvador’s efforts to foster “financial inclusion and raise growth,” the IMF attacks the very tool that the country’s government is using to accomplish that.

“Given Bitcoin’s high price volatility, its use as a legal tender entails significant risks to consumer protection, financial integrity, and financial stability. Its use also gives rise to fiscal contingent liabilities. Because of those risks, Bitcoin should not be used as a legal tender. Staff recommends narrowing the scope of the Bitcoin law and urges strengthening the regulation and supervision of the new payment ecosystem.”

Translation: The IMF can’t even think of one good reason for Bitcoin not to be legal tender. One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency’s volatility is intrinsically related to the assets we compare it with. In this case, the US Dollar. It’s also important to remember that Bitcoin is legal tender in El Salvador ALONGSIDE the US Dollar. If people don’t want volatility, they can easily exchange all of their money into the other currency considered legal tender.

The IMF also conveniently ignores the fact that Bitcoin’s volatility can bring positive results for its users. And that their other option, the US Dollar, is going through an inflationary period like no other. Plus, when the US government prints more money, its citizens get certain benefits out of it. But El Salvador doesn’t. A Dollarized country that’s not in control of the money printer gets its purchasing power decreased by relentless inflation, but doesn’t get the airdrops and inorganic money artificially stimulating the economy.

Does The IMF Have Any Other Advice?

Of course, they do. First, they praise El Salvador’s efforts in financial inclusion. Then, the IMF recommends implementing the exact same measures that keep 70% of their population out of the financial system.

“Stronger regulation and oversight of the new payment ecosystem should be immediately implemented for consumer protection, anti-money laundering and counter financing of terrorism (AML/CFT), and risk management.”

Why are people in El Salvador unbanked? Do they think it’s by choice? Is the IMF unaware that their outdated and inefficient methods cause the bottleneck? Bad actors have incentives to bypass AML and KYC procedures. They do it with ease. Normal people can’t produce all those documents. And for banks, the cost of processing all that data makes acquiring a new client expensive. There are no incentives to serve the lower-income population.

“Recently announced plans to use the proceeds of new sovereign bond issuances to invest in Bitcoin, and the implications of trading more broadly in Bitcoin, will require a very careful analysis of implications for, and potential risks to, financial stability.”

Translation: What’s all this about a Bitcoin City?!!!!! And they’re building a pet hospital?! ALERT! ALERT!

The US Pauses Relations With El Salvador

In semi-related news, Reuters informs that U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Jean Manes said in local TV that relationships between the two countries are on hold. “Obviously we’re on a bit of a pause because the government of El Salvador is not giving a signal that it has an interest in our relationship,” she said. “On behalf of the White House, the State Department, we’ve offered a bridge, and the (Salvadoran) government decided not to take it. As far as we’re concerned, we’re interested in having the best relationship with El Salvador.”

Sure, Manes. That sounds totally believable. Nothing suspicious here.

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