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Trading Guru John Bollinger Forecasts Bitcoin Breakout, $50,000 On The Horizon?

John Bollinger, a legendary Bitcoin (BTC) trader known for creating the Bollinger Bands strategy, has recently shared an optimistic view on Bitcoin’s future.

Bitcoin Poised For Further Surge?

In a post on X, John suggest that Bitcoin’s price is likely to “break higher” from its current levels. This prediction is based on his analysis using the Bollinger Bands chart, a popular technical analysis tool he developed. For context, Bollinger Bands are a type of statistical chart characterizing the prices and volatility of an asset over time.

They consist of a set of three lines: the middle line typically represents the simple moving average of the asset’s price, and the other two lines are plotted at a standard deviation above and below the average. This tool helps traders to assess market conditions and potential price movements.

Bollinger’s prediction using this methodology indicates a positive outlook for Bitcoin, especially significant in light of the recent market turbulence.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Bitcoin’s Recovery And $50,000 Price Target

So far, Bitcoin’s journey in the crypto market has been marked by resilience, as evidenced by its recovery from a notably down turn in the market that resulted in the asset to trade in the $40,000 region.

Currently trading above the $43,000 mark, Bitcoin has shown a 3% growth in the past 7 days. This rebound is particularly noteworthy following a bearish report from Matrixport concerning a rejection of spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Joining Bollinger in bullish predictions is Dan Gambardello, another well-respected analyst in the crypto space. Gambardello has projected an upward breakout for Bitcoin, potentially leading the digital currency to reach the $50,000 mark in the short-term and $60,000 in the long term.

This projection is tied to the anticipation of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval, which could serve as a significant catalyst for Bitcoin’s price movement. Gambardello explains that this upward trend would represent a historical breakthrough for Bitcoin, especially in terms of breaking through the lower highs of its Fibonacci level.

Notably, it is evident that the predictions from both Bollinger and Gambardello hinge significantly on the US SEC decision regarding the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. While optimism prevails, Gambardello has also cautioned that a rejection could lead to a decline in Bitcoin’s price, potentially dropping below $40,000 to find support around $37,000.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin’s Bullish Leap: Trading Guru John Bollinger Weighs In On BTC Ongoing Rally

John Bollinger, known for his expertise in market analysis, has recently shared his insights on Bitcoin’s current market trajectory, noting that the premier cryptocurrency is exhibiting “signs of strength.” This observation comes when Bitcoin consistently sets new highs amid the ongoing bull run.

The asset has experienced a surge, climbing above $44,000, representing a 4.5% increase over the past 24 hours. It now appears to be aiming for the next resistance level.

Bitcoin Shows Signs Of Strength

John Bollinger, the creator of the renowned Bollinger Bands, a popular technical analysis tool, has applied his methodology to gauge Bitcoin’s market movement. Bollinger Bands are typically used to measure the volatility of a financial instrument.

They consist of a middle band, a simple moving average flanked by two standard deviation lines. These bands adjust with market conditions, widening during volatile periods and contracting during calmer times.

Bollinger’s recent analysis highlights that Bitcoin trades outside its daily and weekly Bollinger Bands. This is particularly noteworthy as it suggests a strong continuation of the current bullish trend without any signs of divergence.

On November 21, a two-bar reversal pattern was noted at the middle Bollinger Band, further reinforcing the strength in Bitcoin’s price action.

Bitcoin’s Price Action: Interpreting The Signs

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum continues unabated, with a near 5% surge in the past 24 hours, pushing past the $44,000 threshold. Interestingly, the cryptocurrency shows no signs of deceleration or immediate pullback.

However, technical analysis on a larger scale suggests that Bitcoin might be approaching a significant retracement zone. On the one-week timeframe, an order block is present between the $48,000 and $50,000 regions.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

An order block is essentially a zone where significant buying or selling occurred in the past, leading to a substantial price movement. When the price revisits these blocks, they often act as key levels for potential reversals or trend continuation.

Should Bitcoin climb to this region, a retracement might be on the cards. However, invalidating this order block and continuing its rally might set the stage for a reversal, possibly when it reaches the breaker block around the $60,000 region.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

A breaker block is a specific price zone where the market has previously shown a substantial reversal, breaking through a level of resistance or support. These blocks are often seen as potential areas where the price might experience significant movements or change direction. If Bitcoin taps into this breaker block, it could indicate another pivotal moment in its price trajectory.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Trading Guru John Bollinger Warns Of Buying Litecoin, Here’s Why

In his latest analysis, legendary trader John Bollinger has expressed concerns over Litecoin’s performance, particularly in comparison to Bitcoin. Bollinger, known for developing the popular technical analysis tool Bollinger Bands, highlighted a worrying pattern in the Litecoin market.

He remarked, “I was asked for an analysis of LTCBTC. The thing that concerns me the most is its underperformance vs Bitcoin. From a price perspective the controlling LTCUSD feature is the 2 bar reversal at the lower Bollinger Band which is typically considered a bearish signal by traders.”

Litecoin price analysis by John Bollinger

Bollinger’s Bearish Litecoin Prediction Explained

The chart of the LTC/USD pair provided by Bollinger on November 28, 2023, shows Litecoin’s price action in relation to its Bollinger Bands on both a daily and weekly scale. The price is currently hovering around $69.566, which is significantly lower than the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a lack of bullish momentum.

The Bands form by plotting a range of standard deviations above and below a simple moving average, commonly enveloping the price action. In this chart, the daily vs. weekly candles chart shows that the LTC/USD price is struggling beneath the midpoint of these bands, which is a bearish indication. The price currently near $69.566 is substantially below the upper band level of around $90, which represents a potential resistance level.

The Bollinger Bands (BB) on the chart are set with a 20-period moving average with a 2 standard deviation range. Bollinger’s analysis points to a ‘2 bar reversal’ pattern at the lower band. This pattern emerges when a bar reaches a high above the preceding bar but then closes below the close of that same previous bar, hinting at a possible reversal from the uptrend. Such a pattern took place near the lower band, indicating that any effort to drive the price higher meets with resistance, and the prevailing selling pressure is taking hold.

The Bollinger %B indicator is also crucial here as it compares the price of Litecoin to the range defined by the Bollinger Bands. A %B value below 0.5 indicates that Litecoin’s price sits nearer to the lower band than to the upper band, potentially signaling weakness. The chart shows the indicator failing to cross the 0.5 level after a plunge toward 0, signifying that the price frequently touches or falls below the lower band.

LTC Price Under Pressure

The Bollinger Band Width (BBW) serves as another indicator, measuring volatility by assessing the Bollinger Bands’ width. A narrowing of the Bands, as seen in the latter part of the chart, suggests a decrease in volatility and often precedes a significant price movement. In this context, the BBW’s narrowing on the Litecoin chart might indicate that the market is tensing, possibly gearing up for an impending breakout or breakdown.

When Bollinger mentions Litecoin’s underperformance relative to Bitcoin, it’s important to note that Bitcoin often leads the crypto market trend. If Litecoin is not keeping up with Bitcoin’s movements, it could suggest a lack of confidence or interest from traders in altcoins (as the current rise in Bitcoin dominance shows) and Litecoin specifically.

In summary, Bollinger’s technical analysis indicates that Litecoin is in a precarious position. The price action at the lower Bollinger Band, the bearish ‘2 bar reversal’ pattern, the sub-0.5 Bollinger %B values, and the narrowing BBW all suggest that Litecoin may continue to see downward pressure in the near term.

At press time, Litecoin traded at $70.05. The 1-day chart of LTC/USD shows that the altcoin fell below the key support of the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $69.98 two days ago. A retest is currently taking place, a daily close above this is of utmost importance for the Litecoin price.

Litecoin price

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Bitcoin Monthly Tags Lower Bollinger Band, Tool’s Creator Hints At Bottom

Bitcoin price action on monthly timeframes has made a historic move to the touch the lower Bollinger Band – a popular technical indicator and volatility measuring tool.

Although he warns there isn’t yet a sign that a bottom is in, the tool’s creator says where price action tapped is a “logical” level for such a bottom to occur.

Unprecedented Bitcoin Price Action Taps Monthly Bollinger Band For First Time In History

Expectations for Bitcoin price in 2022 were closer to $100,000 per coin and above. Yet the top cryptocurrency today is trading close to its former 2017 all-time high at $20,000.

But unprecedented macro conditions has caused unprecedented price action in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Never in the past has the top cryptocurrency by market cap retested its former all-time high this way.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Weekly RSI Sets Record For Most Oversold In History, What Comes Next?

And never did Bitcoin price on monthly timeframes ever reach the lower Bollinger Band. But that’s exactly what happened this past month when crypto market contagion spread and brought asset prices down considerably.

BTCUSD monthly touches down on the lower Bollinger Band | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Touching the lower Bollinger Band, however, could be a logical place for a bottom according to the tool’s creator.

Time To Pay Attention: John Bollinger Points Out Logical Level For Potential Bottom

The Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool that can help to measure and predict volatility, or find areas of potential resistance and support. It was created in the 1980s by John Bollinger, who today is a frequent Bitcoin speculator. It relies on a 20-period simple moving average and a dynamic upper and lower band set each at two standard deviations.

Mr. Bollinger pointed out the touch of the lower Bollinger Band in a new tweet, where he suggests the area would be a “logical” level to bottom. Bollinger did warn, however, that there still aren’t signs of such bottoming yet.

In the past, Bollinger was able to call out the April 2021 peak by spotting a “three pushes to a high” bearish reversal pattern with striking accuracy. The analyst says his tools later confirmed what he says was an “M-type” double top.

Picture perfect double (M-type) top in BTCUSD on the monthly chart complete with confirmation by BandWidth and %b leads to a tag of the lower Bollinger Band. No sign of one yet, but this would be a logical place to put in a bottom.https://t.co/KsDyQsCO1F

— John Bollinger (@bbands) June 27, 2022

Bollinger also shared in his chart a look at ancillary indicator, B%, which also has set historical lows. Monthly Bollinger Band Width can be used to measure volatility, and still has room to fall compared to past cycles.

Related Reading | Is Bitcoin Like Buying Google Early? Check Out The Shocking Comparison

Does Bitcoin price have more room to fall also? Or will a bottom form in this “logical” zone as the tool’s creator calls attention to? Either way, it seems to be “time to pay attention.”

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

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Time To Pay Attention: Bitcoin Indicator Behavior Mimics Historic Rally

Bitcoin price keeps sinking, but has kept mostly sideways leaving bears unable to break support to new lows. With the trading range at a pivotal point, as one trading legend often says it is “time to pay attention.”

The reason for the focus, is because what started as a fractal in price action, is now causing similar behavior in the Bollinger Bands that led to one of the most powerful pumps in Bitcoin history. Is that what’s next with bearish sentiment at such critical heights currently?

Pause In Downtrend Leaves Traders Confused, Market In Fear

Markets are cyclical and oftentimes sentiment lags behind price action. The recent uptrend in cryptocurrencies came to a pause when things were at their best – just as Coinbase Global went public, and prices were at all-time highs.

Related Reading | Market Timing: Why Bitcoin Could Sweep Lows Before A Bounce

It wasn’t until more than 50% from the price per BTC was shed before investors started to become bearish on Bitcoin. Over the last several weeks since the big drop in May, a symmetrical triangle has been forming but it might not play out the way text book technical analysis would suggest.

bollinger bands bitcoin

The Bollinger Bands closely match the "China pump" from 2019 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Sentiment is at extreme fear and a technical indicator that can be used to forecasts bounces, the Bollinger Bands, looks a lot like the last time the market reached a pause in a new downtrend like this.

At that time, the creator of the tool, John Bollinger, warned it was now “time to pay attention” as trickery could soon reveal, and reveal it did.

Bitcoin “Squeeze” Could Lead To Epic Pump

With sentiment at the very worst and a sweep of lows now checked off the list, Bitcoin price could pump back higher to either retest or reclaim previous highs.

Price action has repeatedly wicked into the lower Bollinger Band without a big break, suggesting that this latest test of the lower band is a bear trap setup called the “Gimmee Bar” discovered by Joe Ross.

bitcoin bollinger bands gimmee bar

Several wicks into the lower BB suggest a bear trap | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

In 2019, the top cryptocurrency couldn’t recover the lost level, but the bull market is a lot different this time around. Holding the level here would result in the first major bull market correction of the rally continues from here.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Bulls And Bears Alike Beware Of Potential Pump And Dump Fractal

If the level cannot be reclaimed, much like the China pump of late 2019 failed and led to new lows, so too will any unfinished recovery from here. Regardless of what happens, it is worth paying extra close attention the next several days until Bitcoin price choses a new direction.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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Third Time’s The Harm: Trader Warns Of Bitcoin Reversal Pattern

Bitcoin price is back at local highs, but still struggling to set a new record beyond $61,800. The lack of a further push by bulls even with positive news out of PayPal, has caused one iconic trader to warn of the possibility of a topping pattern forming.

The theory is based on a set of technical analysis tools the trader himself created. But what exactly is a “Three Pushes to a High” pattern and what might it suggest about the coming price action?

John Bollinger, Bollinger Band Creator, Warns Of Bitcoin Reversal

The leading cryptocurrency by market cap is only a few hundred dollars below $60,000 – an area that has resulted in repeated rejections. It has been the first major area of supply catching up with the overwhelming demand for Bitcoin ever since the pandemic first began.

But as the dollar strengthens, and gold prices fall early bull run levels, Bitcoin could see its first major correction. Various technicals are overheated, causing the once powerfully trending cryptocurrency to respond less and less positively to news that drives adoption further.

Related Reading | Career Commodities Trader Warns Bitcoin Community Over Coinbase Concerns

For example, the Tesla pump has yet to retrace, while the following rally related to the announcement that the company had enabled Bitcoin for payments was immediately wiped out.

The most recent bullish news, has PayPal finally enabling its customers to use crypto at its millions of merchants globally. However, further record highs have yet to materialize. The lack of continued enthusiasm around the asset class has prompted iconic trader John Bollinger to warn of a potential topping pattern in Bitcoin.

 

What Is A Three Pushes To A High Technical Chart Pattern?

Bollinger, who created the Bollinger Bands technical analysis indicator, often speculates publicly via Twitter regarding his thoughts on where Bitcoin goes next. In the past, he’s given a heads up and told the trading community when it’s “time to pay attention,” but ultimately leaves the predictions up for debate.

His latest tweet warns that Bitcoin could be forming a Three Pushes to a High pattern. He offers no further clues as to why he’s making such a warning, only calling the rare pattern by name.

In technical analysis, there’s all sorts of patterns, mostly following a naming convention mimicking the shapes they take, such as triangles or head and shoulders. But there’s a wide world of wacky patterns across Japanese candlesticks and indicators themselves that provide potentially profitable trading signals.

bitcoin bollinger bands three pushes to a high

Not all the conditions are met currently for the pattern to confirm | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Because the pattern is rare, there’s very little educational materials that exist aside from those instructed by Bollinger himself. Upon further research, Bollinger in the past has shared the conditions as part of  a “micro-lesson” in TA.

Related Reading | Heads Up: Bearish Bitcoin Technical Pattern Shouldn’t Be Shrugged Off

The living legend reveals that a Three Pushes to a High typically is accompanied by lower peaks in %B, the Bollinger Band Width turning down, and finally, confirmation when the BBTrend tool also turns down. As of right now, that’s the missing piece of the puzzle.

bitcoin bollinger bands three pushes to a high zoomed

But they sure appear similar to the last time the bullish impulse ended | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Zooming out shows that this might not be the first instance of this pattern, and could also indicate that a more extended peak is near – at least potentially for several months, until demand is reestablished and prices move higher.

Because BBTrend hasn’t turned down, there’s a chance not all conditions have been met yet for a deeper correction to yet trigger.

If Mr. Bollinger is incorrect about the theory, and he’d be the first to agree that these are simply predictions based on probabilities, then Bitcoin will blast off like never before.

Featured Image From Deposit Photos, Charts From TradingView.com