Strategic Exploit: Crypto Traders Harvested $3 Billion From ‘Kimchi Premium’?

South Korea’s local media, Newsis, recently reported the case of certain crypto traders who had sent about $3 billion overseas in a bid to profit from the ‘Kimichi Premium.’ Interestingly, the court found 14 out of 16 of these traders not guilty despite their alleged actions. 

How This Group Of Crypto Traders Operated

These crypto traders are said to have sent these sums of money through local banks under the guise of these transactions being foreign exchange remittances. However, this was allegedly not the case, as they would then use the funds to purchase virtual currencies abroad and send those crypto assets back to domestic exchanges, where they eventually offload them. 

This was done to allegedly profit from the ‘Kimichi Premium.’ This phenomenon occurs when crypto assets are more expensive in South Korea than overseas due to the country’s particular regulations.

This has created an arbitrage opportunity that crypto traders have sought to exploit. Meanwhile, the Korean government has tried to prevent traders from doing so. 

That is why the prosecution charged 16 people, including someone referred to as Mr. A in the news report, with violating the Specific Financial Information Act. Mr. A and others were accused of illegally transferring foreign currency worth 4.3 trillion won ($3 billion) overseas between April 2021 and August 2022 to exploit the Kimichi premium allegedly. 

The prosecution believes these crypto traders made a market profit of as much as 210 billion won ($158 million). In their defense, the defendants argued against any wrongdoing since they weren’t precisely the ones facilitating the foreign exchange business but the bank.

The traders argued they were platform users, not virtual asset business operators. The bank involved also tried to absolve itself from the case as it claimed it carried out the transaction based on the “false evidence” the defendants submitted. 

Court Finds The Defendants Not Guilty

The court agreed with most defendants’ arguments, acquitting 14 (including Mr. A) out of the 16 persons charged. A local Judge who ruled over the case opined that their actions didn’t violate the objective of the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act and, therefore, could not be punished under that law. 

The Judge added that there was “nothing to suggest that the defendants operated as virtual asset business operators.” If the reverse was the case, they could have been punished for not registering their business or making certain disclosures as required by the law. 

Interestingly, Judge Park further distinguished the current case from a Supreme Court precedent as he noted that the highest court did not “explicitly judge the issues in this case.” The prosecution already submitted an appeal, dissatisfied with the court’s ruling. 

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Chart from Tradingview

Kimchi Premium Puts Bitcoin Lower Ahead of Fed Minutes; What’s Next?

Bitcoin prices dropped lost 3.12 percent in early trading Monday, while the rest of the crypto market followed suit, turning lower aggressively after their record-setting bull runs at the start of this week.

Bitcoin wobbles around $56,000. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin wobbles around $56,000. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

At first, it appeared like a regular profit-taking exercise among western day-traders against overvaluation risks. Nevertheless, blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant noted that the sell-off appeared out of South Korea-based crypto exchange Upbit Global. It happened after a so-called “Kimchi Premium” indicator reached its three-year peak.

What is Kimichi Premium?

In retrospect, Kimchi Premium a metric which represents the difference in the bitcoin prices on South Korean exchanges and other global trading avenues. Arcnae Research analysts note that when the indicator peaks, it somewhat ends up blowing up the bitcoin bullish bubbles. The metric reached 47 percent in January 2018 and 63 percent in 2017, and followed up with vast price corrections in the global bitcoin market.

Bitcoin Kimchi Premium plunges alongside global price. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin Kimchi Premium plunges alongside global price. Source: CryptoQuant

Nevertheless, Kimchi Premium formed dwarfed peaks of 6.5 percent in January 2018 and 63 percent in May 2019 — also leading to major bitcoin price corrections lower. As of this week, the metric peaked around 18 percent, before dropping lower during the European session Wednesday, as shown in the chart above.

“It seems someone finally figured out how to arbitrage this Kimchi premium opportunity,” said Ki-Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant. “The trading volume in 30min time frame on Upbit Global, the largest Korean exchange, was bigger than Binance‘s. This drop seems related to Kimchi pullback.

Mr. Ju also told CoinDesk that the Kimchi Premium won’t impact the Bitcoin market like the previous times, noting that South Korea’s volume compared to the global one has significantly reduced — from 7.9 percent in 2017 to 2 percent.

Fed Minutes

Bitcoin also dropped below $56,000 during the US session Monday as investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting in March to look for clues on how central bankers view inflation and US economic recovery speed.

Some investors fear that vaccine rollout, easing coronavirus restrictions, and the latest $1.9 trillion stimulus package would pent-up consumer demand, leading to a higher inflation. In turn, it would prompt the Fed officials to hike interest rates from near-zero earlier than 2024.

“When you have all this money that has been pumped into the system and into people’s pockets, but that hasn’t been spent yet, then you know inflation is going to come at some point,” said Brian Walsh, Jr., senior financial adviser at Walsh & Nicholson Financial Group.

Higher inflation prospects make the US dollar more attractive to foreign investors. Meanwhile, the greenback’s weakness tends to benefit Bitcoin.