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Litecoin ETF Rumors Fuel 10% Surge As Institutions Hint At Interest

Rumors regarding a potential spot Litecoin (LTC) Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) have sparked a significant price surge, with the digital asset gaining 10% amid speculation of institutional interest. Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett, through a post on X (formerly Twitter), unveiled insights suggesting growing institutional intrigue towards a Litecoin ETF.

Terrett shared, “SCOOP: Hearing rumblings on the institutional level about possible interest in a Litecoin ETF. The logic is that because of LTC functional similarities to BTC, the SEC may be more inclined to approve it, possibly even more so than ETH.”

Why A Spot Litecoin ETF Could Be Possible

This statement comes at a pivotal time as the crypto market continues to navigate through regulatory uncertainties and growing interest from traditional financial institutions. Adding to the buzz, Terrett highlighted recent actions by the Coinbase Derivatives to launch futures contracts for Dogecoin, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash, all set to begin on April 1st, 2024.

These futures contracts, as detailed, are part of Coinbase’s strategic move to diversify its offerings, leveraging the self-certification approach under CFTC Regulation 40.2(a). This approach permits entities to launch new products without the explicit approval of the CFTC, provided they comply with the Commodity Exchange Act and accompanying regulations.

Moreover, the recent classification of Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC) as commodities by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in its lawsuit against KuCoin has added another layer of legitimacy to the discourse surrounding Litecoin’s regulatory standing. The CFTC’s action emphasizes its view of certain cryptocurrencies as commodities.

Amidst these regulatory clarifications and developments, discussions about the potential approval of a spot Litecoin ETF have intensified. Luke Martin, a renowned crypto analyst, echoed the sentiment, suggesting that the approval of an Ethereum ETF could pave the way for other “old altcoins,” like Litecoin, which may have a stronger case for not being classified as securities.

He stated, “When the ETH ETF launches and passes, the question then becomes especially with the SEC’s track record versus tokens […] there’s other dinosaur old altcoins which you can make almost a stronger case [that] they’re not a security, one that sounds ridiculous but if you think deeply about it, it’s true – Dogecoin you could probably prove easier is not a security than ETH. Why wouldn’t they launch Litecoin, Dogecoin?”

Adding to the momentum, Alan Austin, Managing Director at the Litecoin Foundation, expressed enthusiasm about the prospects of a spot Litecoin ETF, stating, “I’ll say it again, love or hate ETFs, the first company to launch a Litecoin ETF is going to crush it!”

LTC Price Is Lagging Behind

Despite the current buzz, Litecoin’s price analysis indicates that it is still down by 77% from it’s all-time high in May 2021, signaling a bearish trend in comparison to other cryptocurrencies that have already surpassed their 2021 peaks. Nevertheless, a recent break above the 200-week EMA has ignited a glimmer of bullish momentum.

Overcoming the red resistance zone between $102 and $106 could be critical for Litecoin to reach new heights, with the $128 mark (0.236 Fibonacci retracement level) as a potential near-term target.

Litecoin price

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Litecoin Whales Are Back In The Game, Can Price Reach $100?

Litecoin (LTC) whales are making their way back into the market once more as the bull market establishes itself. A number of large transactions have been flagged which suggests that these millionaire accounts are coming out to play.

Litecoin On-Chain And Whale Activity Hit 4-Month High

The Litecoin on-chain and whale activity has been on the rise recently, as reported by the on-chain analytics platform Santiment. In the report posted to X (formerly Twitter), Santiment revealed that there had been a big spike in the Litecoin on-chain activity.

The chart shared by the tracker showed the spike taking place in line with the price recovery, which would be the reason why investors are awakening once more. Santiment noted that this recovery in on-chain activity saw address activity on the blockchain, as well as whale activity reaching levels not seen since June, representing a 4-month high in this metric.

Litecoin whales

A total of 319,000 daily addresses were active on the network after this metric dropped drastically in the last few months Additionally, weekly whale transactions, that is transactions carrying more than $100,000 rose and touched a new 4-month high of 7,418.

These are not the only metrics that saw a spike as the dormant LTC address started seeing movement again. These addresses which had previously not seen movement for a while began to move coins around, adding to the current number of coins in circulation.

LTC Ready For A Shoot To $100?

The revival of on-chain activity for Litecoin is a welcome development for the network but it is not exactly bullish. The reason for this is how the LTC price has reacted since this activity commenced, which is not very encouraging.

As the dormant LTC started to move once more, the price began to decline. This suggests that this subset of holders may be selling their coins after holding and waiting for better prices. In this case, the selling pressure has outweighed the demand for the coin.

A continuation of this will likely see the price continue to fall further, and a recovery to $100 is still far off on the horizon. So this recent bout of activity may just be investors choosing to sell rather than coming back to participate in buying.

The LTC price already fell from its $69 level on Thursday to as low as $67 on Friday before mounting a small recovery. Presently, the Litecoin price is sitting at $67.8, representing a 2.14% decrease in the last day.

Litecoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Litecoin At 12: How Has Its 84 Million Supply Been Distributed Over Time?

Much has changed since Litecoin launched in 2011 with a maximum supply of 84 million LTC as a silver to Bitcoin’s gold. The crypto recently completed its third halving in August, finally reducing the number of LTC miners receive as a reward for mining a block from 12.5 LTC to 6.25 LTC. 

Over the past 12 years, much of this supply has been distributed to miners as block rewards for verifying Litecoin transactions. At the time of writing, there are 73.76 million LTC in circulation, with data showing this supply concentrated among large holders. 

Estimates from the crypto analysis platform IntoTheBlock show that over 49% of LTC is held by accounts with more than 0.1% of the circulating supply. BitInfoCharts also puts addresses with more than 100,000 LTC having 38.01% of the total supply.

Litecoin addresses

Source: IntoTheBlock

Who Are the Biggest Litecoin Wallet Holders Today?

Litecoin’s 84 million total supply has been distributed over the past 12 years through mining rewards and market trading. The biggest wallet addresses include large miners that have accumulated Litecoin from years of mining and crypto exchanges. Charlie Lee, its creator, claims to have sold or donated all LTC tokens in his collection.

The honor of the biggest Litecoin wallet address belongs to “M8T1B”, accounting for 3.34% of the entire supply in circulation. This wallet holds 2,504,667 LTC worth $158,105,141 at the current market price. 

Next is “ltc1qr” holding 2,225,000 LTC worth $140,451,374. Wallet addresses “MQd1f” and “ltc1qn” comes third and fourth in rankings, holding 1,344,464 LTC and 1,097,050 LTC worth $84,868,217 and $69,250,423 respectively. According to data from BitInfoCharts, these top four addresses hold 8.18% of the total coins in circulation.Litecoin 2

Other top-ranking whales include addresses “ltc1q2” and “MQSs1,” with 927,542 LTC ($58,550,373) and 745,000 LTC ($47,027,540), respectively. Looking through the data shows these six addresses are the Litecoin blockchain whales holding more than 1% of the circulating supply. Metrics from IntoTheBlock put the total concentration of these whales at 11.88% (8.84 million LTC).

Wallets “MB8nnF”, “MFULdM,” “MESruS,” and “LZEjck” complete the top 10 rankings with 513,259 LTC, 472,674 LTC, 416,688 LTC, and 394,044 LTC, respectively. 

What Does Litecoin’s Supply Distribution Mean for the Future?

There seems to be a dull market movement with the whales as sellers continue to maintain control over the market. As a result, the inflow to wallets holding at least 0.1% of the circulating supply has decreased by 91.07% in the past three months.

Litecoin whales

Source: IntoTheBlock

With 87% of LTC already mined, the rate of new supply will slow down over time. This could support price stability and sustainability. Litecoin is currently trading at $63.07, and like all cryptocurrencies, and pseudonymous crypto analyst P_S_trade predicts Litecoin can push up to $84 very soon. 

According to historical data compiled by crypto analyst Tony “The Bull”, Litecoin has always retraced 70% in the weeks following its past halvings. However, the recently concluded halving event may present a different narrative.

Litecoin is currently trading in a range since last week and is seeking to extend its gains of 2.35% over the past 24 hours. 

Litecoin price chart from Tradingview.com

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Crypto Analyst Puts Litecoin Price At $84, Here’s The Timeline

Since its third halving event was successfully completed in early August, the Litecoin price has fallen off the radar of crypto investors. This was mainly due to the price decline that LTC experienced after heavy profit-taking from investors who had invested leading up to the price surge triggered by the expectations around the halving. But it seems the tides are finally turning for the coin as one analyst predicts a more than 30% increase in price going forward.

Litecoin Price Shooting For The Stars

The current crypto market headwinds seem to be working in favor of the Litecoin price which one crypto analyst believes is gearing up for a run-up to $83. In the post, the pseudonymous analyst identified as P_S_trade points to the possibility of the crypto market continuing its growth trend. However, this would be null and void if the crypto market were to reverse back below $27,000.

For Litecoin, the analyst points out that the altcoin has usually been the first to start to see an upside in the crypto market. But this has not been the case, as previously mentioned since high levels of profit-taking have affected the LTC price.

Litecoin price chart from Tradingview.com

Even from the current level, the analyst’s chart points toward a possible retracement from here back down to $55. However, once this is completed, the bounce-off from there shows LTC reaching as high as $77 before succumbing to another correction.

This decline is also similar to the first instance where it falls to $55 in the fact that it signals another price surge. Following this second correction, the analyst puts the bottom somewhere around $67 before Litecoin continues its ascent once more.

The top of this second rally then lands just above $84 on the chart. Although there is no official timeline, the range of trades mentioned by the analyst is the medium term, which could see this run out for a couple of months.

Litecoin price chart from Tradingview.com (LTC prediction crypto analyst)

LTC Daily Transactions Continue To Decline

While the analyst foresees Litecoin price to surge, other metrics could be pointing in the opposite direction. For one, the daily transaction numbers for the altcoin have been steadily on the decline since the halving event in August.

According to data from BitInfoCharts, the number of daily LTC transactions has fallen from over 584,000 in May to just shy of 104,000 transactions by Tuesday, October 10. This points to a lack of interest from investors usually brought on by bear market headwinds.

Additionally, the daily transaction volumes, as shown by the token tracking website CoinMarketCap, show a 13.26% decline in the daily trading volume of Litecoin. These bearish metrics could thwart chances of reversal. However, they could also signal the bottom that triggers the start of another rally.

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Litecoin Eliminates Pre-Halving Gains As Volume Drops, Is A Fall To $50 Coming?

In the months leading up to the Litecoin halving in August, the price of the blockchain’s native LTC token was continuously on the rise. This renewed interest in investors who rushed back into the token and eventually pushed its price above $100. That is until the actual halving event rolled around, turning it into a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario. Since then, it has been a downward spiral for the token and the pain may not be over.

Litecoin Volume Slumps Post-Halving

Litecoin volume since the halving was completed has been less than expected. While investors expected rising demand for the LTC token with the diminished supply rate, the opposite has been the case. Instead, the daily trading volume of the cryptocurrency continued to slump.

In the last day, the Litceoin daily trading volume fell another 23%. This brought its daily volume to $255 million, a significantly low figure compared to the $500 million daily volumes that the cryptocurrency was recording leading up to the halving.

Litecoin volume

Just like the trading volume, the price of LTC has also plunged significantly. From its pre-halving peak of $112, the altcoin has fallen over 50% to its current level just above $60. This means that the asset has lost all of its gains accumulated between June and July 2023, just one month after the halving was completed.

So rather than being a bullish event as initially expected, the halving has proven to be more bearish than most. It also did not help that it took place during the bear market and LTC has fallen rapidly alongside larger assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Litecoin price chart from Tradingview.com (Volume)

Will LTC Fall Continue To $50?

At the current rate, the forecast does not look too good for the LTC price. Litecoin has understandably seen a 3% increase in the past day as Bitcoin recovered above $26,000. But this does not look sustainable by its current metric.

The first indicator of this is that falling daily trading volume means that interest in the asset is waning. As investors move to other assets they believe provide better prospects, this will affect the LTC price and could trigger further downside from here. Add to this that the coin’s price is below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages and it spells a recipe for disaster.

If LTC bulls are unable to hold support above $60 and it falls once again as it did on September 11, then $50 becomes a very possible landing point. Such a decline would put it back at November 2022 levels and signal a prolonged bear trend for the digital asset.

At the time of writing, LTC price is still sitting above $62 but the tug-of-war for control between bulls and bears continues to rage on.