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Bitcoin Price Forecast: Analysts Caution Against Missing Out As BTC May Surge To $500k With ETF Launch

As the Bitcoin price has regained previously lost territory, following reports suggesting that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would reject the long-awaited Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), new developments have reignited hopes among investors. 

Although the approval of these index funds is not expected to occur on Friday, sources indicate that the upcoming week may bring positive news. 

ETF Approval To Drive Gradual Bitcoin Price Surge To $500,000

FOX journalist Eleanor Terret reports that amended 19b-4 filings and last-minute phone calls regarding comments on S-1s and possible launch dates are expected in the coming days. 

While approvals seem likely in the next week, according to Terret, the timeline ultimately depends on the SEC’s ability to review the comments and amendments submitted efficiently. 

Terret describes the current situation as a meticulous process of “dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s,” emphasizing the attention to detail required for regulatory clearance. 

On the other hand, crypto analyst Adam Cochran offers valuable insights into the potential impact of Bitcoin ETFs, as all signs point to the imminent approval of these investment products.

Cochran suggests that many may “overestimate” the short-term effects of ETF approval while underestimating its long-term implications. In the immediate aftermath, market flows may not witness a significant surge. However, Cochran believes that investment advisors will review their clients’ portfolios over the next year and recommend diversifying even a small percentage, such as 1%, into the ETF. 

Cochran emphasizes that the Bitcoin price performance, with a remarkable 157% return in the latter half of 2023, will be a key factor driving investor interest. 

Cochran envisions a gradual upward trajectory for the Bitcoin price, characterized by persistent growth and occasional market volatility. 

Ultimately, Cochran’s long-term forecast indicates a potential Bitcoin price surge to $500,000 per coin, leaving sidelined investors regretfully waiting for a substantial market correction. Cochran further noted:

Also, ETFs result in spot buys, not leverage, which improves system health. And are long-term holders, less likely to sell volatility. So it creates a slow grind up of underlying market health. Like the best DCA you could ask for. 

Bitcoin ETF Pricing Potential Not Fully Realized

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez suggests that the pricing potential of a Bitcoin ETF may not have been fully realized, providing insight into the current state of the Bitcoin market.

Martinez points to a decline in the estimated leverage ratio across all exchanges, reaching a two-year low. This indicates that Bitcoin traders are adopting a more cautious approach, reducing their use of borrowed funds as they await regulatory clarity on the ETF. 

Furthermore, Martinez emphasizes the significance of Bitcoin’s price above $41,800. According to Martinez, Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its position above $41,800 is crucial for establishing a bullish outlook. 

This level is reinforced by approximately 2.41 million addresses holding over 1 million BTC, creating a substantial support zone. 

Bitcoin price

The significant number of addresses with substantial Bitcoin holdings suggests a strong interest in maintaining the cryptocurrency’s value and provides a foundation for market stability. Martinez notes that the resistance levels ahead for Bitcoin appear relatively minor. This implies that fewer significant barriers are impeding potential price increases. 

With reduced resistance, the market conditions become more favorable for stable or rising prices, further supporting the bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin price

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin Price Targets: MVRV Points To $52,000 And $70,000 Levels For BTC, Expert Suggests

In a recent development, the Bitcoin price witnessed a remarkable surge of 7% within 24 hours, reaching a high point of $45,300. This significant price increase coincides with the anticipation surrounding the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

In addition, market experts, backed by multiple models aligning to indicate increased price action and bullish momentum, suggest that Bitcoin could soon reach the $50,000 level and potentially establish a new all-time high (ATH).

Bitcoin Price Poised To Reach New All-Time High? 

At the forefront of this analysis is Ali Martinez, a renowned crypto analyst, who emphasizes the valuable insights provided by the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) pricing bands. 

These bands serve as a metric to analyze the price movement and potential levels of Bitcoin, or any other cryptocurrency, by comparing the market value to the average value at which coins were last moved on-chain. The MVRV ratio assesses whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical on-chain activity. 

A high MVRV ratio suggests that the market value of Bitcoin has surpassed the average value at which coins were last moved, indicating a potential overvaluation. Conversely, a low MVRV ratio may indicate that Bitcoin is undervalued.

Bitcoin price

Considering these factors, Martinez highlights the significance of the MVRV pricing bands, which reveal key price targets for Bitcoin at $52,680 and $70,250, surpassing its previous ATH of $69,000. 

This analysis presents an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s future performance and reinforces the belief among investors that the cryptocurrency’s upward momentum is likely to continue.

However, despite these Bitcoin price projections that could propel the largest cryptocurrency on the market into uncharted waters, another analyst points to a more prudent prediction.

Cooling Period For BTC? 

According to renowned crypto analyst Crypto Con, despite a year-long bullish stance, he believes it is time for a cooldown as the new year, 2024, begins.

Crypto Con predicts a 30% correction from the directional movement index (DMI) overheat zone, projecting prices around $30,000. The overheat zone mentioned by Crypto Con suggests that the price of Bitcoin has experienced a significant upward movement and may be due to a correction or cooling period. 

Bitcoin price

As seen in the chart above, when the price enters this zone, it is seen as a signal that the trend may have become overextended and could potentially reverse or experience a pullback.

Drawing parallels to the example in 2019, characterized by a double peak in red, Crypto Con anticipates a drawdown that is both smaller in magnitude and shorter in duration. 

Furthermore, the analyst points to the consistent support offered by diagonal green zones throughout each cycle, suggesting a pattern that has been held thus far.

While some analysts project a new all-time high for the Bitcoin price, reaching uncharted waters above $70,000, others, such as Crypto Con, advocate for a cooling period and anticipate a correction in the near term.

Bitcoin price

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Mt. Gox Repayment Rumors Cause Bitcoin Price To Drop To $42,000, Market In Turmoil

Mt. Gox, the infamous Bitcoin exchange that suffered a major hack over a decade ago, has allegedly finally begun the process of repaying its customers for the 850,000 lost Bitcoin. This news has sent shockwaves through the market, causing a momentary disruption in the Bitcoin price uptrend.

As a result of these developments, the current price of Bitcoin stands at $42,625, with a 24-hour trading volume of $22,655,498,534.64. 

However, the market has witnessed a -2.40% decline in the past 24 hours, reflecting the uncertainty caused by the Mt. Gox repayment proceedings.

Bitcoin Price Plunges Amidst Mounting Speculation

Reports from participants in the mtgoxinsolvency subreddit group indicate that some individuals have already received payouts in yen via PayPal. 

However, those who opted for cash deposits into their bank accounts have not reported any inflows as of yet. Several users have shared notifications they received, alerting them to a system error that resulted in double payments. 

These users are now allegedly being requested to return the excess funds to the Rehabilitation Trustee promptly.

Moreover, the Rehabilitation Trustee has reached out to affected individuals to refund the mistakenly transferred amount, which was the second transfer, as the first transfer was the official repayment. 

Bitcoin price

Users have been instructed to use PayPal’s “Refund” feature to return the funds to the Rehabilitation Trustee’s account. Alternatively, they can transfer an equivalent amount of money to the Rehabilitation Trustee’s PayPal account if the “Refund” feature is unavailable.

While some users have confirmed receiving their repayments, there is uncertainty surrounding the timing of Bitcoin reimbursements or if they are taking effect.

No Bitcoin Outflows Detected From Mt. Gox?

In a recent statement by CryptoQuant co-founder and CEO, Ki Young Ju, it has been confirmed that “no Bitcoin outflows have been recorded from the Mt. Gox Trustee wallet at this time.” 

Furthermore, the trustee responsible for managing the rehabilitation proceedings of Mt. Gox, the now-defunct Bitcoin exchange, has yet to provide any official statements explaining the absence of outflows from the wallet. 

Consequently, the cryptocurrency community finds itself on edge, eagerly awaiting updates regarding the timing and method of Bitcoin reimbursements.

Once again, the cryptocurrency community has been hit by another bout of misinformation surrounding the long-awaited Mt. Gox exchange repayment to its customers. 

The spread of this news has had a notable impact on market sentiment and has stirred volatility in the Bitcoin price. The future timeline and potential effects of the exchange’s repayment, slated for 2024, remain uncertain.

Bitcoin price

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com  

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Countdown To Bitcoin ETF 2024 Decision: Traders Employ Hedging Tactics, Bloomberg Unveils

As the long-awaited deadline for a positive or negative decision on spot Bitcoin ETF applications approaches, Bloomberg reports that the BTC options market is seeing increased hedging activity as traders prepare for a crucial decision on January 10th.

The report indicates a surge in open interest for put options expiring on Jan. 12, suggesting that market participants are taking steps to mitigate potential losses in the event of a negative verdict by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding these index funds holding the cryptocurrency. 

Market Readies For Bitcoin ETF Verdict

The Bloomberg report highlights that the open interest for put options, which allow holders to sell Bitcoin, has seen a significant increase for contracts expiring on January 12. 

This surge in open interest has resulted in a higher put-to-call ratio for these specific options compared to contracts with expiration dates further out from the January 10 deadline. 

As seen in the chart below, the most prominent strike prices for the put contracts are $44,000, $42,000, and $40,000, respectively, indicating that put holders could exercise their options to minimize losses in case of a negative market reaction to the SEC decision.

Bitcoin ETF

The put-to-call ratio, considered a measure of overall market sentiment, stands at 0.67 for the January 12 options contracts, indicating a more cautious approach among traders. 

Ryan Kim, head of derivatives at FalconX, suggests that leveraged/speculative traders are employing Bitcoin put options to protect their leveraged longs, anticipating significant price movements in either direction. 

The higher put-call ratio for January 12 options further reflects the market’s desire for protection against a potential negative decision.

The surge in open interest for put options expiring on January 12 indicates a growing need for protection in case of an unfavorable ruling. While Bitcoin’s rally has softened the impact of its 2022 decline, market expectations for ETF approval may already be priced in, posing potential risks for the market. 

BTC’s Price Resistance And Potential Dip 

Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable rally this year, with expectations for ETF approval driving its price up by more than 60% since mid-October. 

However, the Bloomberg report suggests that the surge in demand for the anticipated ETFs may already be factored into the token’s price, potentially exposing the market to a “sell the news” scenario in the second week of January. 

Furthermore, QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto asset trading firm, predicts topside resistance for Bitcoin in the range of $45,000 to $48,500 and a possible retracement to $36,000 levels before the uptrend resumes.

Bitcoin ETF

Bitcoin is currently trading at $43,400, experiencing a 1% decline over the past 24 hours. Over the past 14 days, the cryptocurrency has shown a sideways price movement with a slight decrease of 0.4%. 

Given Bitcoin’s well-known volatility, it remains uncertain how the market will react as the looming decision and potential catalysts draw near, and how these factors will impact its price dynamics.

However, the upcoming decision is not the sole catalyst that can potentially drive Bitcoin’s price in 2024. The cryptocurrency is also anticipated to experience a significant catalyst in April 2024, known as the halving event. 

This event has historically resulted in an upward surge in Bitcoin’s price, and it is predicted to propel the cryptocurrency beyond its previous all-time high (ATH) of $69,000 throughout the upcoming year.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin Price Surges On Positive News: FASB’s Fair Value Recognition Reignites $42,000 Support Recovery

The Bitcoin price experienced a notable downturn as selling pressure intensified, resulting in a decline of over 4% from its annual peak of $44,500. This downturn was further exacerbated by the loss of the crucial $42,000 support level. 

However, the largest cryptocurrency in the market received a substantial uplift from the US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), which has spurred a rapid 1.8% surge in BTC’s value within the past two hours. As a result, Bitcoin has successfully recovered the $42,000 support level.

FASB’s Fair Value Recognition Brings Clarity To BTC?

In a significant development for the cryptocurrency industry, the FASB has announced new accounting rules that require companies, including prominent entities like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Block, to measure their cryptocurrency holdings at fair value. 

These rules, set to go into effect in 2025, allow businesses to capture the real-time highs and lows of their Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) assets, providing a more accurate representation of their holdings.

Under the previous accounting practices, companies were only allowed to record the lows, resulting in a one-sided accounting treatment that often led to reduced valuations and diminished earnings for businesses holding cryptocurrencies. The highly volatile nature of crypto values further exacerbated the issue.

The FASB’s new rules address these concerns by mandating the recording of cryptocurrencies at fair value, a measurement technique aimed at reflecting the most up-to-date value of these assets. 

Changes in fair value will now be recorded in net income, allowing companies to account for fluctuations in the value of their crypto holdings more comprehensively.

The positive news for BTC lies in the fact that the new FASB rules provide greater transparency and accuracy in assessing the true value of cryptocurrency assets. By capturing fluctuations in fair value, companies will have a more realistic representation of their holdings, enabling better decision-making and financial reporting.

Bitcoin, being the most widely recognized and valuable cryptocurrency, stands to benefit significantly from these changes. The recognition of its fair value allows companies to showcase the true worth of their BTC holdings, potentially boosting investor confidence and attracting further institutional interest.

Turbulent Times Ahead For Bitcoin Price

Following these recent developments, the Bitcoin price has successfully rebounded to previously lost levels, demonstrating heightened volatility after a brief consolidation phase just below $42,000.

However, according to CoinGlass’ liquidation heatmap, Bitcoin’s price may be facing further volatility that could lead to a significant amount of liquidation of both long and short positions. 

Bitcoin price

The liquidation heatmap from CoinGlass highlights substantial indications of liquidation leverage exceeding $200 million both above and below the current Bitcoin price. 

Of particular concern is the thick liquidation leverage below $41,000, as seen in the chart above, which, combined with the prevailing trend, could become a probable target for the Bitcoin price in the coming days.

Conversely, following BTC’s correction, additional liquidation leverage has emerged in CoinGlass’s heatmap, particularly in the $42,000 and $43,000 range of short positions. This added selling pressure has contributed to the retracement of the Bitcoin price.

This potential scenario suggests a potential price swing up and down before a stable continuation of either the downward or upward momentum. The outcome remains uncertain as to which side will give way first and what prevailing trend will shape the latter part of the year.

Bitcoin price

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin $42,000 Support Under Pressure As Short Position Inflows Soar

Bitcoin (BTC) recently experienced a sharp decline, tumbling towards $40,000 amid a broader sell-off across the cryptocurrency market. While the most significant token managed to recover some losses, currently trading 4% lower at $42,000, concerns persist regarding the potential for further downside price action before a potential recovery.

Investors Show Caution With Short-BTC Position Inflows

According to a recent CoinShares report, digital asset investment products witnessed their 11th consecutive week of inflows, totaling $43 million. Notably, there was a significant increase in short position inflows due to recent price appreciation and perceived downside risks. 

Europe led with $43 million in inflows, followed by the US with $14 million (with half in short positions). On the other hand, Hong Kong and Brazil experienced outflows of $8 million and $4.6 million, respectively. 

Bitcoin remained the primary focus for investors, attracting $20 million in inflows, bringing the year-to-date inflows to $1.7 billion. Short-Bitcoin positions saw $8.6 million in inflows, suggesting some investors view the current price rises as unsustainable. 

Ethereum (ETH) also saw increased interest, with its sixth week of inflows totaling $10 million, marking a turnaround from previous outflows.

Selling Pressure Mounts As Miners Decrease Bitcoin Holdings

According to Satoshi Club, there are indications that miners are selling their Bitcoin holdings following the recent price drop. Data shows a significant decrease in miners’ BTC holdings, with increasing flows to exchanges, suggesting selling pressure in the market. 

Satoshi Club’s analysis highlights that this trend could be attributed to the anticipated halving in 2024, which will reduce miners’ rewards by half. 

Bitcoin

Additionally, Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit/loss, which indicates the investor profit ratio, has surpassed 0.5 for the first time since December 2021. This suggests that a significant portion of Bitcoin investments are currently profitable, potentially leading to increased selling pressure at current price highs.

BTC’s Bullish Structure Intact, But Deep Correction Threatens Run

In the 1-day chart for Bitcoin, the current trading price is closely aligned with a support level. Despite briefly dipping below this level, Bitcoin has managed to recover and trade above it, mitigating further declines.

However, in the event of continued selling pressure and an inability to maintain its current price level, Bitcoin’s next critical level of support would be $39,990. 

Bitcoin

It is worth noting that during the previous hype surrounding Bitcoin’s milestone, many traders entered long positions below the current levels. This influx of long positions could trigger a liquidation hunt before a recovery ensues.

If such a scenario unfolds, the hunt for liquidations could drive Bitcoin’s price further down, potentially testing support levels at $38,700 and $37,800.

On a positive note, Bitcoin’s current bullish structure would remain intact unless a significant correction occurs, pushing the price below the $29,900 level. This level began Bitcoin’s current bull run in late October.

The future outcome hinges on whether Bitcoin can successfully hold its nearest support levels and facilitate a recovery that shifts the focus from hunting long positions to hunting short sellers, eventually regaining previously conquered territories.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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SEC’s “Crypto Asset Securities” Alert Boosts Spot Bitcoin ETF Prospects – Here’s Why

As anticipation builds for the long-awaited approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), an encouraging sign has emerged, further increasing the likelihood of approval. 

The SEC issued an investor alert regarding “crypto asset securities,” prompting speculation that the spot Bitcoin ETF may be closer than ever. 

Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval On The Horizon?

The recent investor alert issued by the SEC has garnered significant attention in the cryptocurrency community. While the alert does not explicitly mention the spot Bitcoin ETF, many market participants believe it is a positive indicator for its potential approval.

The parallel between the investor alert and the approval of Bitcoin Futures adds to the growing optimism surrounding the spot Bitcoin ETF. Before approving Bitcoin Futures, the SEC issued similar alerts and warnings, indicating their concern and engagement with the underlying asset class. 

Consequently, market observers, including Bloomberg’s ETF expert Erich Balchunas, are interpreting the investor alert on “crypto asset securities” as a potential precursor to the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Balchunas stated: 

Oh snap, SEC tweeting out educational materials, warnings on crypto investing, which is something they also did ahead of $BITO

It is important to note that the SEC will evaluate various factors, including investor protection, market integrity, and compliance with existing regulations, before making a final determination on the spot Bitcoin ETF. 

However, given the increased attention and progress in cryptocurrency, the issuance of the investor alert signifies a step in the right direction.

Potential BTC Surge To $48,000 

Renowned crypto analyst, Crypto Con, has made interesting observations regarding BTC’s current market dynamics that shed light on the potential next steps for the largest cryptocurrency on the market.

According to Crypto Con, money has been pouring into BTC at a rate not witnessed since the last cycle’s peak, with historical data indicating similar patterns on only five prior occasions. 

This influx of funds has heightened the market’s sentiment and created anticipation for potential further price gains. Crypto Con highlights the significance of Bitcoin’s Money Flow Index (MFI), a technical indicator used to measure the strength and volume of funds flowing into or out of an asset, which reached a value of 91.57, historically indicating the presence of additional bullish momentum.

Bitcoin ETF

Furthermore, the analyst identifies the .618 cycle retrace of weekly candle bodies as a point of interest for potential target ranges. This level aligns with other significant price regions, further bolstering its importance. 

Crypto Con suggests that Bitcoin’s price could likely reach the range of $47,000-$48,000 based on these target ranges. However, the analyst also notes that significant price increases are often followed by retracements at this stage in the market cycle.

Crypto Con highlights the potential for a retracement after the completion of the current price rise. The analyst identifies the $31,000-$32,000 range as an area of interest for a potential retracement based on long-term data. 

Bitcoin ETF

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is being traded at $43,800, showcasing a noteworthy recovery within the past 24 hours following a retracement below $42,900 on Thursday. 

While this price rebound is encouraging, it remains uncertain whether the prevailing market dynamics possess sufficient strength to propel Bitcoin beyond its current yearly high of $44,500. There is a possibility that Bitcoin may experience another failed attempt to surpass this level, which could subsequently result in a deeper retracement before witnessing another upward movement.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Sam Altman-Backed Crypto Startup Looks To Secure $100 Million For Bitcoin Private Credit Fund

Meanwhile Advisors, a crypto startup backed by the American entrepreneur Sam Altman, has announced plans to raise $100 million for a Bitcoin (BTC) private credit fund. 

The fund, known as Meanwhile Private Credit Fund aims to provide institutional investors with access to BTC while targeting an additional 5% yield denominated in the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Rally Sparks Launch Of Meanwhile Advisors Fund

According to a report by The Block, Meanwhile Advisors has launched the fund as Bitcoin continues its recent rally, with prices currently falling from the $44,000 level down to the $43,200 mark. 

Zac Townsend, the co-founder and CEO of Meanwhile Group, stated that the belief is that Bitcoin will appreciate significantly in the future, and the fund offers investors a unique opportunity to increase their exposure to digital assets.

The Meanwhile BTC Private Credit Fund adopts a single-close, closed-end structure. Participating limited partners (LPs) will contribute US dollars to the fund, which will be immediately converted to Bitcoin following the single close. 

Meanwhile will lend this BTC to borrowers to generate the targeted 5% return in Bitcoin. This structure allows LPs to accumulate more Bitcoin if its price appreciates during the fund’s lifecycle without requiring additional principal investment.

Townsend mentioned that the minimum investment amount per LP is $250,000, with no maximum limit. The fund’s investment period spans three years, followed by a four-year harvest period, resulting in a total term of seven years. 

However, capital is returned to investors during harvest, meaning a significant portion of the invested capital may be returned well before the seven-year mark.

Innovative Fee Approach? 

Per the report, the Meanwhile BTC Private Credit Fund charges a 2% management fee and a 20% carried interest fee, both in Bitcoin. The carried interest fee only applies when the LP’s Bitcoin holdings are increased. 

This fee structure ensures that if Bitcoin experiences substantial price appreciation, Meanwhile does not benefit from the price appreciation itself but rather from generating more Bitcoin for the LPs.

Addressing concerns about risk management, Townsend highlighted that the closed structure of the fund eliminates the risk of a “bank run” scenario that can lead to insolvency. Moreover, the fund focuses on making conservative loans to “creditworthy institutional borrowers”, mitigating risks associated with lending to retail investors at higher rates.

The Block also reported that Anchorage Digital serves as the fund’s custodian. Meanwhile Group’s insurance unit has previously launched a Bitcoin-denominated life insurance policy, and Townsend mentioned plans to introduce an accidental death coverage policy in Bitcoin as well.

Bitcoin

When writing, the leading cryptocurrency in the market is trading at $43,200, marking a decrease of nearly 2% within the last 24 hours. This decline follows an unsuccessful attempt to solidify its position above the significant $44,000 milestone. 

Nevertheless, Bitcoin has managed to maintain a 14% increase over the past seven days and is currently holding strong at the support level of $43,000, as it sets its sights on achieving a new annual peak.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Poised For December Surge As Historical Patterns Suggest Strong Upside Ahead

As the eagerly awaited Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) verdict approaches, excitement and anticipation continue to grow in the cryptocurrency market. 

According to a report by K33 Research, the upcoming decision, expected between January 8 and January 10, has been a significant factor behind Bitcoin’s positive momentum since October. Institutional demand remains robust, with traditional investors strongly interested in adding long BTC exposure. 

Bitcoin Set For Bullish December? 

Bitcoin has displayed a notable tendency to surge higher in the lead-up to major events, creating a sense of enthusiasm and driving prices upward. This phenomenon has been observed across various significant milestones in the cryptocurrency’s history. 

According to the report, examples include Bitcoin’s peak coinciding with the launch of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) BTC futures in 2017, its spike coinciding with Coinbase’s public listing in April 2021, and its peak on the day El Salvador declared Bitcoin legal tender in September 2021.

Similarly, Bitcoin reached its peak on the date of VanEck’s spot ETF deadline in November 2021. These instances highlight the potential for Bitcoin to experience significant price movements as the ETF verdict draws near.

The report emphasizes the substantial demand from institutional investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin. BTC exchange-traded products (ETPs) witnessed inflows of nearly 40,000 BTC in November, while CME open interest reached and maintained all-time highs. Futures premiums have also surged to 20%, indicating the strong interest from institutional players. 

In contrast, retail participation has shown signs of stagnation. Offshore flows have remained shallow, and Bitcoin-denominated open interest in BTC perpetual contracts is currently at yearly lows. These factors suggest that institutional flows continue to be the driving force behind Bitcoin’s solid market strength.

Based on the historical pattern of event-driven price movements and the sustained institutional demand, the report maintains a positive outlook for Bitcoin in December. 

As the ETF verdict approaches, K33 Research’s report suggests that the narrowing time window is expected to fuel enthusiasm and drive prices higher. However, it is worth noting that once the event occurs, prices may experience a temporary surge before potentially stabilizing, according to the report. 

 BTC’s Bull Run Indicator

Renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified a significant development in the Bitcoin market that suggests a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency. 

According to Martinez, the Realized Price of Bitcoin has surpassed the Long-Term Holder Realized Price, signaling an increase in market momentum and attracting new investors willing to purchase Bitcoin at higher prices. 

Martinez’s analysis highlights that similar occurrences in the past have preceded substantial price surges, further fueling optimism regarding Bitcoin’s future performance. 

Bitcoin

The Realized Price of Bitcoin refers to the average price at which all previously transacted coins were acquired. It considers the price at which each Bitcoin unit was last moved on the blockchain. 

On the other hand, the Long-Term Holder Realized Price focuses specifically on coins held by long-term investors, providing insights into their average acquisition price. When the Realized Price surpasses the Long-Term Holder’s Realized Price, it suggests that newer investors are entering the market and are willing to buy Bitcoin at higher valuations.

As seen in the above chart, Bitcoin experienced significant gains following this bullish signal on three separate occasions in the past. Specifically, the cryptocurrency surged 12,736%, 4,474%, and 819%, respectively, following similar events. 

Bitcoin

In addition to Martinez’s bullish outlook for BTC, the largest cryptocurrency on the market has demonstrated relatively stable price action above $44,000 in the past hour. 

This stability increases the potential for continued upside and consolidation above key levels, positioning Bitcoin for further gains and surges in the future. It remains to be seen if the cryptocurrency will see any corrections following its impressive 16% surge over the past few days. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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SEC Insider: Bitcoin ETF Approval Probability Surges Beyond 99% As BTC Hits Fresh Yearly High

In the countdown to the deadline for the long-awaited Bitcoin ETF applications by major asset managers worldwide, predictions regarding the rate of approval have significantly improved. 

Inside sources from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) indicate that Bloomberg’s initial 90% chance prediction of approval has now surged beyond 99%. 

This development has heightened the excitement surrounding this investment vehicle, which has the potential to bring substantial inflows of capital into the Bitcoin market and further amplify its year-to-date gains of over 153%.

Market Sentiment Soars As Bitcoin ETF Approval Probability Surpasses 99%

Andrew, an SEC insider, shared an update on X (formerly Twitter), stating that the 99% probability of a Spot Bitcoin ETF being approved is no longer deemed high enough. 

While acknowledging that nothing is ever certain, the source emphasized that the current likelihood of approval surpasses the 99% estimate from the previous week.

The sentiment in the market is clearly reflected in the price movement of Bitcoin, as it continues to establish new yearly highs and display unwavering bullish momentum. 

Currently trading at $42,900, Bitcoin recently reached a fresh annual peak of $43,400 on Tuesday. Over the past 24 hours, the largest cryptocurrency has surged by 4%, and it has witnessed a remarkable increase of over 14% in the past seven days.

Bitcoin ETF

It is worth noting that the prospect of a Bitcoin ETF being approved has captured the attention of investors and industry participants alike. If approved, the ETF would provide a regulated and accessible investment vehicle for institutional and retail investors, potentially bringing significant liquidity to the cryptocurrency market. 

The spike in approval forecasts to over 99% has further fueled optimism that this milestone decision is imminent. While nothing can be guaranteed, the growing confidence in Bitcoin ETF approval and the cryptocurrency’s impressive price performance underscores the potential for a significant positive impact on the market. 

As the final deadline approaches, market participants eagerly await the SEC’s decision, anticipating a potential game-changer for the Bitcoin ecosystem and its ongoing growth.

BTC Faces Crucial Range High Resistance

Renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital has shed light on Bitcoin’s recent price action, emphasizing the significance of key support and resistance levels within a specific price range. 

In late November, Rekt Capital identified a range between $36,120 and $43,200, highlighting the importance of the lower boundary for a potential upward move.

Bitcoin successfully tested and held the range’s lower boundary as support, resulting in a substantial rally in recent days. The primary objective now, according to Rekt, is to revisit the upper boundary, known as the black $43,900 range high resistance, as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin ETF

Rekt Capital underscores the importance of the black Range High resistance as a crucial reference point for Bitcoin’s price. During the parabolic phase of the 2021 Bull Market, Bitcoin managed to break above this level relatively easily. 

On two occasions, the cryptocurrency surged beyond the black level, with the first instance followed by a retest of the level as a new support, leading to further upward momentum. 

The second instance occurred later in the year when Bitcoin successfully retested the black level as short-term support before continuing its ascent.

However, late in 2021, Bitcoin lost the black level as support (first red circle from the left) and experienced a fake breakout above it, subsequently entering a multi-week downtrend. 

Rekt Capital highlights that Bitcoin’s historical performance suggests the cryptocurrency needs to successfully retest the black $43,900 level as support to pave the way for further upward movement.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bloomberg Expects Bitcoin Price To Surpass $500,000 In Upcoming Crypto Super Cycle

In a recent Bloomberg report, it has been suggested that the rise of Bitcoin price to over $42,000 is just the beginning of a new crypto super cycle that will push the world’s largest cryptocurrency to over $500,000.

According to Bloomberg, proponents of this theory argue that Bitcoin represents a new monetary order that is captivating Wall Street and fueling a “palpable sense of euphoria” within the digital asset community.

Bitcoin Price Potential Soars

The remarkable performance of the Bitcoin price in recent months took many by surprise, as the cryptocurrency posted three consecutive monthly increases, including another 11 percent in December alone. 

The enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin’s price rally has led to optimistic predictions of further gains, often based on intuition or technical analysis.

The cryptocurrency has experienced a significant price revival in 2023, with its value surging over 150% thus far. Market observers attribute this surge to growing anticipation of a potential approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) for trading in the United States. 

Per the report, the prospect of an ETF has led to jubilation within the industry. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong suggests that “Bitcoin may be the key to extending Western civilization.” Forecasts regarding the future price of Bitcoin have ranged from $50,000 in the immediate term to above $530,000.

Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., cautions about the rapidly changing sentiment in the asset class, highlighting the importance of the liquidity influx caused by the pandemic in driving Bitcoin’s strong rally in 2020 and 2021. 

Maley suggests that without a similar liquidity injection, some of the optimistic predictions surrounding Bitcoin’s future value may be unrealistic.

The long-awaited launch of a Bitcoin-based ETF in the United States aims to facilitate easier access to the cryptocurrency for money managers, potentially attracting billions of dollars in new investments to the space. 

BTC ETF Speculation Sparks Optimism 

Researchers at Kaiko note a noticeable shift in the market sentiment since mid-October, driven by increasing institutional interest in the potential approval of a spot BTC ETF and a more favorable macroeconomic environment. 

The researchers also highlight recent inflows into crypto investment products and a seven-month high in daily spot-trading volumes in November.

Nevertheless, while excitement about a broader crypto rally often spreads across social media platforms like X (formerly known as Twitter), it is important to acknowledge Bitcoin’s historical volatility. 

According to Bloomberg, the cryptocurrency has experienced multiple hype cycles in recent years, with celebrated gains followed by significant downturns. 

Bitcoin price

Despite Bitcoin’s recent gains and departure from a prolonged consolidation phase, Bloomberg suggests that a significant correction may still be on the horizon. At present, Bitcoin is trading at $41,800, displaying sustained bullish momentum as it strives to reclaim the $42,000 level. 

The outcome remains uncertain whether the cryptocurrency will successfully consolidate above this critical level, positioning it favorably for continued upward movement throughout the month. 

Alternatively, the current yearly high level could act as a formidable resistance barrier for the Bitcoin price, further supporting Bloomberg’s thesis of a potential correction. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com