What To Expect This Month For XRP Price According To Historical Data

The XRP price has had a rollercoaster growth trajectory which was mostly hindered by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing a lawsuit against Ripple. But a lot of the altcoin’s performances over the months have been rather predictable, and with its history, we can get an idea of what to expect for the XRP price this month.

October Not Looking Good For XRP Price

In a heat map of historical XRP price data generated by NewsBTC, we can see how the month of October has usually gone in the past. The heat map shows XRP’s performance over the last eight years and the figures for October are some of the worst historically.

As shown in the image below, the month of October has historically seen more losses than gains when it comes to the XRP price. In fact, out of the last eight years, only two years have seen October record a positive return for the XRP price.

In the first four years of the altcoin’s life, we can see that the month of October was characterized by losses. Then in the fifth year in 2019, XRP saw its first profitable October with a 14.84% increase. Then from there, there is an alternating trend recorded with one year being profitable and the next being filled with losses.

XRP price October

The year 2022 was no different, seeing 3.24% losses after the previous year saw October end with 16.71% gains. So if this holds, it could be that October 2023 would end on a good note. However, as the charts show, this month is already seeing XRP prices fall, so for it to finish strong, there would have to be a massive price reversal. Otherwise, October 2023 could stick to historical performance and end in the red.

October Is Not A Good Month

As shown in this report from Bitcoinist, taking an average of the XRP price performance in October over the years shows that it is not a good month for the altcoin. The chart shared in the report reveals that historically, October is the third-worst month for the cryptocurrency.

The only months that have seen worse performance than October are the months of February with slightly higher loss numbers. Meanwhile, June takes the crown for the month with the worst returns as the last 7 seven years have seen the month end with losses.

On the other hand, December presents as the best month for the XRP price. This is followed by April being the second, with May and March snagging fourth and fifth place, respectively. January, November, and September are also profitable months but to a much lesser degree.

XRP price chart from Tradingview.com (October)

Why October Is An Important Month For The Crypto Industry As Key SEC Decisions Loom

As October approaches, the crypto community will have their eyes set on the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as it has some key decisions to make that could invariably affect the crypto industry and everyone in it. 

SEC Appeal Incoming?

The SEC is expected to decide whether or not to appeal the ruling in its case against asset manager Grayscale, with the deadline for an appeal being October 13 (45 days from the court’s ruling). 

On August 29, Grayscale secured a landmark victory against the SEC as the District of Columbia Court of Appeals ruled that the regulator failed to provide a valid reason for denying Grayscale’s application and ordered that the SEC review the application once again. 

Following the decision, a spokesperson for the agency stated that they would review the decision before determining their next steps.

If the SEC chooses to appeal, it can do so at the US Supreme Court by filing a petition for a “writ of certiorari,” which is a document asking the Supreme Court to review the case, or it can ask for an “en banc” review where all the judges of the DC Court of Appeals will further review the case. 

An appeal by the SEC will undoubtedly dampen the mood in the crypto community as it could prolong the wait for a Spot Bitcoin ETF.

However, suppose the Commission chooses not to appeal, it will become law that the spot and futures market are correlated, and the SEC’s argument that the spot market is more susceptible to fraud and manipulation will no longer stick.  

Pending ETF Applications

The second deadline for several pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications is in October. The SEC must decide (approve, deny, or delay) on these applications. Some notable dates include October 16 and 17. The former is the second deadline for a decision on the Bitwise Bitcoin ETP Trust. 

Meanwhile, October 17 is the second deadline for the SEC to decide on the iShares Bitcoin Fund, VanEck Bitcoin Trust, Wisdomtree Bitcoin Trust, Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF, and Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust.

It is expected that the SEC will again choose to delay its decision on these applications, with the next deadline for a decision coming next year.

If the SEC continues to stretch its decision on these applications, the earliest a final response can come is on January 10, 2024, the final deadline for the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF.

There should, however, be some positives to take from October as the SEC is expected to allow the launch of the pending Ethereum futures ETF applications, with Volatility Shares projected to launch theirs on October 12 and others coming subsequently. 

Featured image from Hotcore