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PlanB’s Bitcoin Forecast: A Journey To $5 Million Per BTC In The Next Decade

PlanB, a popular name within the Bitcoin community, thanks to his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has shared the latest discourse on X, igniting a flurry of excitement and speculation. This discourse particularly highlights BTC’s potential journey through successive halving cycles.

PlanB’s analysis, deeply rooted in the S2F model, presents a narrative for Bitcoin’s future. This model scrutinizes the correlation between an asset’s existing reserves (stock) and annual production (flow) and lays the groundwork for PlanB’s bold predictions.

Navigating Through Predictions: A Community Aweigh

According to the model, the forthcoming halving cycle spanning 2020-2024 is expected to solidify Bitcoin’s price at around $50,000. But the real spectacle unfolds in the ensuing cycles, with projections setting the stage for Bitcoin to ascend to $500,000 in the 2024-2028 cycle, eventually reaching a monumental $5 million in the 2028-2032 cycle.

The predictions made by PlanB have sparked interest and debate among the crypto community. Many are curious to see if Bitcoin will experience the forecasted substantial growth.

An X user responded to PlanB’s post, expressing hopefulness yet advising caution due to the limited number of data points that can’t definitively predict precise future prices, like an average of $500k from 2024 to 2028.

PlanB acknowledged this caution, pointing out that his predictions are based on three past halving events and the significant pre-halving period, suggesting that while the Stock-to-Flow model can guide the general trend, its accuracy comes with a considerable margin of error.

For instance, while the 2020-2024 period was projected to see an average of $55k, the actual figure was around $33k.

Additionally, another user in the conversation, known as Phoenix of Crypto, remarked that while PlanB’s projection might seem “overly optimistic,” the true outcome remains to be seen, emphasizing the need for patience.

This user highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s future, especially considering the potential impacts of ETFs and widespread adoption, signaling an open-minded but watchful approach to market developments.

Bitcoin Latest Price Action

Bitcoin is undergoing a notable decline, having decreased by 7.5% over the last week. This downward trajectory has extended into the last 24 hours, with the cryptocurrency dropping an additional 1.5%. Despite these setbacks, Bitcoin’s trading price remains at $67,167 at the time of writing.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Skew, a renowned trader, has provided technical analysis indicating a critical support range for Bitcoin investors between $60,000 and $67,000.

This range is seen as a possible pivot point for the market’s direction, concurrently noting the substantial selling activity on leading platforms such as Coinbase and Binance.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin’s Golden Projection: Analyst Envisions $600K Price Tag, Assessed In Gold Ounces

Renowned Bitcoin analyst PlanB, known for his stock-to-flow model for BTC, has made a bold prediction regarding the future price of BTC. What sets this forecast apart is its evaluation in terms of gold ounces, shedding light on a unique perspective.

The PlanB Projection: Bitcoin Meteoric Rise

According to PlanB’s recent post on X, he foresees a monumental shift in Bitcoin’s value, expected to rise significantly in the coming years. Drawing a comparison with gold, PlanB highlighted that currently, one Bitcoin is equivalent to 26 ounces of gold, valuing an ounce of gold at $2,000.

Looking ahead to 2024-2025, PlanB predicts that Bitcoin’s price could skyrocket to roughly 100 gold ounces, translating to $200,000 in fiat currency terms.

Delving deeper into the charted trajectory, PlanB anticipates Bitcoin to climb to 35 gold ounces ($70,000) by 2024 and surge to 300 gold ounces by 2025. This projection would place Bitcoin’s value at a price target of $600,000, marking a monumental milestone in its journey.

Bullish Momentum Fuels Bitcoin’s Rise

As Bitcoin continues to capture the attention of investors, recent weeks have witnessed a notable bullish momentum propelling the cryptocurrency forward. With a surge of more than 20% over this period, Bitcoin has crossed the $1 trillion market cap threshold, accompanied by a trading volume hovering above $20 billion in the past week alone.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

This surge in activity has ignited optimism among investors and traders, leading to a significant accumulation of the asset. Notably, Whale Alert data reveals that earlier today a substantial withdrawal of approximately $962.15 million from the leading US crypto exchange, Coinbase, to an undisclosed address, underscoring the heightened interest in Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin open interest has surged to over $24 billion, marking a 50% increase since the start of 2024. This surge in open interest, a metric representing the total value of outstanding derivative contracts, signifies heightened market activity and interest in Bitcoin futures and options trading.

Notably, this surge in open interest levels has not been witnessed since the peak of Bitcoin’s price in November 2021 when it soared to an all-time high of $69,000.

This trend has been consistent across various crypto exchanges, with platforms like CME, Binance, and ByBit leading the charge and commanding over 50% of the open interest in the market, according to data from Coinglass,

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin’s Unbreakable Floor? Analyst Predicts BTC Won’t Fall Below $35,000 Ever Again

Controversial Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model creator PlanB has recently made a bold prediction about Bitcoin (BTC) that’s captured the crypto community’s attention.

Via his social media handle X, PlanB stated that Bitcoin’s price would never plummet below the $35,000 threshold again. PlanB supported his claim with a chart illustrating Bitcoin’s valuation trend about its intrinsic hash rate. According to PlanB, this relationship is a critical indicator of the digital currency’s enduring value.

Despite acknowledging potential black swan events or short-term market volatility, PlanB insists that based on the current fundamentals, particularly the cost of electricity ($/kWh) used in mining Bitcoin, the asset’s market value is “unlikely” to retract below the mentioned support level – $35,000.

Mining And Market Arbitrage: A Key Factor

The crux of PlanB’s argument lies in the unique arbitrage opportunity that exists between Bitcoin miners and everyday users. Miners, who invest heavily in electricity to mine the digital asset, and users, who typically purchase Bitcoin with fiat currency on exchanges, create a dynamic market environment.

According to PlanB, this arbitrage might become even more pronounced with the advent of a potential launch of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in the US.

PlanB suggests that miners, equipped with specialized knowledge about the market and the actual cost of producing Bitcoin, might begin to demand a premium when selling the cryptocurrency. This shift could fundamentally alter the way Bitcoin is traded and its perceived value.

The introduction of BTC spot ETFs, in particular, is expected to bring a new level of mainstream acceptance and investment into Bitcoin, potentially solidifying its price floor as predicted by PlanB.

Bitcoin Hash Rate And Market Dynamics

Delving deeper into the concept of Bitcoin’s hash rate, it’s essential to understand its role in securing the network and validating transactions. The hash rate basically measures the computational power being used to mine and process transactions on the blockchain.

A higher hash rate indicates more robust security and efficiency in the network, often correlating with increased investor confidence and, consequently, a higher asset valuation.

PlanB’s analysis posits that Bitcoin’s valuation will follow suit as the hash rate continues to rise, driven by technological advancements and increased mining activities. This relationship forms the basis of his prediction that Bitcoin will maintain a strong market position, unlikely to fall below the $35,000 mark.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Currently, BTC is trading above $37,000, marking an increase of over $2,000 from the support level PlanB mentioned. Specifically, at the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price stands at $37,605, reflecting a 2% rise in the last 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Could See 10% Jump, As Volatility Drops To 18-Month Low

After its third-largest weekly fall in over a year, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has finally began to rise. BTC’s price has effectively rebounded from the important support level of $37,500, despite an impending Federal Reserve rate hike.

Bitcoin Poised For 10% Jump

Various analysts, like The Wolf of All Streets, Michael van de Poppe, and PlanB, are bullish on the bullish trend, with the Bitcoin price currently holding above $39,000.

In a tweet on May 4, on-chain data provider Santiment published historical data showing a 20% rally as a result of BTC transactions is negative at the same levels between February 16 and 22. The week’s Bitcoin Ratio of On-Chain Transactions Volume in Profit/Loss statistic is the third largest capitulation in a year.

As technicals improve, several analysts and traders forecast a price increase in the following days.

Michaal van de Poppe predicts that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will rise from current levels. He stated,

“Bitcoin starts to look way better at this stage. Odds that the event tonight is a ‘Sell the rumour, Buy the News’ event are increasing.”

A prominent crypto trader, The Wolf Of All Streets, predicted a rebound in Bitcoin price as it breaks above the trend line. A big rise could be anticipated if the BTC price stabilizes over $39,000.

Bitcoin On-Chain Transactions Volume. Source: Santiment

According to PlanB, the original $55K S2F model, which was released in March 2019, appears to be tracking the Bitcoin price trend. He also expects Bitcoin to rise in value.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has regained over 5% in the previous 24 hours, stabilising near $39,000. Whales continue to accumulate at dips, resulting in a huge increase in trading volume. Furthermore, the BTC has avoided a drop below the critical support level. It suggests that a rally could happen in the next several days.

Suggested Reading | Bitcoin Briefly Tops $40,000 As More Countries Adopt Crypto

BTC Trades Sideways

BTC has been trading sideways over the past few days, with the price dropping below $40,000 on April 26. Although, after reaching the swing highs near $48,000, the price has already begun to drop. BTC retreated and lost 45 percent of its value. BTC sellers, on the other hand, are weary as the price trades sideways in a narrow range since April 25.

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BTC/USD trades sideways. Source: TradingView

A daily close below the session’s low, on the other hand, would disprove the bullish price assumption. In that situation, $36,000 would be the lowest point on the downside.

BTC/USD is currently trading at $39,874, up 5.63 percent for the day as of publishing time. According to CoinMarketCap, the first cryptocurrency by market capitalization has a 24-hour trading volume of $35,528,442,016.

Suggested Reading | Will Bitcoin Shoot Over $40,000 — Or Drop To $35,000?

Volatility Drops

Bitcoin’s historical volatility is at 18-month lows, according to statistics released by the Buy Bitcoin Worldwide webpage. Its anticipated 60-day average value fell to 2.62%.

Bitcoin (BTC) volatility was last this low in November 2020, when the orange coin broke through $10,000 for the first time in this bullish cycle.

Image by Buy Bitcoin Worldwide

On April 27, 2022, thirty-day volatility reached a local low, but it is already showing signs of recovery.

The Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVOL), similar to the stock market’s VIX, shows how much Bitcoin’s price changes on a given day in relation to its previous price.

The most recent increase in Bitcoin (BTC) volatility occurred in July 2021, when the flagship cryptocurrency was twice as volatile over a 30-day period as it is now.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView.com

 

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S2F Creator PlanB Believes In $98k Nov Target For Bitcoin

Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) creator PlanB believes a $98k target for the cryptocurrency by November end is a realistic goal.

S2F Popularizer PlanB Sticks To $98k Target For November

Back in June, when Bitcoin was below $34k, analyst PlanB put out a list for his targets of the crypto in the subsequent months.

The tweet had these targets for BTC: Aug >47K, Sep >43K, Oct >63K, Nov >98K, and Dec >135K. So far, all these price goals have been decently accurate. But the real challenge will be the current month of November as the target for it is quite bold.

PlanB has used the stock-to-flow model for the predictions. S2F is based on the ratio between the current supply (stock) and the annual production (flow).

The S2F value shows how scarce Bitcoin is at a particular time. Based on this scarcity, the model uses a formula to predict the future price of the coin.

Here is the latest chart for this BTC price model:

Bitcoin price vs the line predicted by the S2F model | Source: buybitcoinworldwide

As the above chart shows, the model has been remarkably close to the real thing so far, although there were a few points of deviation.

Related Reading | S2F Model Creator Hypes Up $10K Daily Bitcoin Candles

Now, despite the apparent accuracy, some people in the community think the $98k BTC target for November set by PlanB is unrealistic, citing that the jump is quite large.

The analyst has responded by saying that while the jump is 60% from the level at the start of the month, BTC has achieved similar feats before. In the tweet, he lists examples of when it has happened in the history of the coin. Some of these jumps were May 2019 (62%), August 2017 (66%), May 2017 (66%), etc.

Related Reading | PlanB: S2F Model Predicts Bitcoin To Break $100k By Christmas

More people have raised concerns about the target in replies to the tweet, bringing up an important point that the market cap was significantly smaller during the previous times when BTC showed a similarly large monthly jump in the price.

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, BTC’s price floats around $65.5k, up 6% in the last seven days. Over the past thirty days, the crypto has amassed 18% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of Bitcoin over the last five days.

BTC’s price has surged up today | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

After going through consolidation for a couple of weeks, Bitcoin has finally shown a solid move up as the coin retouched $66k today.

This month will be a decisive test for the validity of PlanB’s S2F model as some people have raised concerns about whether the $98k target is actually achievable.

Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, buybitcoinworldwide.com

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Bitcoin S2F Creator PlanB Thinks BTC Will Reach $135k By December

Creator of the popular Bitcoin price prediction chart “stock-to-flow”, PlanB, puts $135k target for BTC by December 2021.

What Is The Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Model?

The BTC stock-to-flow (S2F in short) method is a price prediction model popularized by PlanB. S2F is based on the ratio between the stock (current supply) and the flow (annual production).

It’s often thought that PlanB is the creator of the S2F model itself, however, that isn’t the case. The method has been used in the past for other assets like gold and silver, but PlanB was the first to implement it for Bitcoin. In this way, PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin S2F chart, although not the core concept itself.

The stock-to-flow value of an asset like BTC shows how scarce it is. The model relates this value with the price and gives a prediction based on that.

Here is the latest price chart based on the S2F model for BTC:

Bitcoin price according to the S2F model | Source: buybitcoinworldwide

As is visible in the above chart, the method has been remarkably close to the real thing in its predictions. Although there have been a few points of deviation, the price has always eventually aligned back on the curve.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Jumps 10% In 24 Hours, Dead Cat Bounce Or Real Move Ahead?

PlanB Thinks BTC Could Reach $135k By December

At the start of the month, PlanB listed out their Bitcoin targets in a Tweet. Earlier, the analyst had targets of above $47k for August and above $43k for September, both of which the tweet confirms have been met.

Next targets for the S2F popularizer include more than $63k for October, above $98k for November, and finally at least $135k for December.

According to the S2F model, Bitcoin should reach $100k by December and these targets seem to be in line with that.

Reaching $100k by December will be a make or break moment for the famed price prediction model as the month is only a couple of months away now. At the moment, BTC’s price floats around $47.6k, up 10% in the last seven days.

Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin Turns Green, Why BTC Could Soon Breach $50K

Here is a chart showing the trend in the price of BTC over the last five days:

BTC’s price seems to have flattened in the last few days after a sharp move up | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Bitcoin volatility had seemed to have made a return over the last few weeks as the price showed a lot of chaotic movements over the month of September.

But the coin’s value has again flattened now and it’s unclear when a move in either direction will happen. Though if the S2F model is anything to go by, a move up will need to happen soon.

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PlanB: S2F Model Predicts Bitcoin To Break $100k By Christmas

PlanB, the popularizer behind the Bitcoin S2F method, says the model predicts BTC will break $100k by this Christmas.

The Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Model

According to PlanB on Twitter, the BTC stock-to-flow (or S2F in short) model predicts that the cryptocurrency is on its way to break $100k by Christmas.

The S2F model is a method to predict the price of an asset based on the ratio of the stock (supply) to the flow (annual production).

PlanB is commonly known as the originator of the model, which is, however, not true. The method was already used for other assets like gold or silver before the analyst only popularized it for Bitcoin.

The S2F value of an asset can show how scarce the commodity is. The model uses a formula to relate that value with the price of the asset, which in this case is BTC.

Related Reading | Ethereum Issuance Drops Below Bitcoin’s For the First Time, Why This May Lead to a New Rally

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend of BTC’s price vs what’s predicted by the model:

Along with the S2F model, the Time Model is also depicted | Source: PlanB

As the above graph shows, the Bitcoin price as predicted by the model seems to be remarkably close to the real thing so far.

There are a few points of deviation, but the overall trend seems to be quite similar. Now, if the price follows the pattern going forward, BTC’s value should go up soon, reaching over $100k by Christmas.

Related Reading | Stablecoins Reserve Hits A New ATH, What Does It Mean For Bitcoin’s Price?

Besides the S2F model, there is also the curve for the Time Model in the chart. This “Time Model” is a method that takes into account diminishing returns and lengthening cycles while predicting the price.

According to this other model, the price should be around $30k by Christmas. PlanB, however, believes that this method underestimates Bitcoin’s value, and the S2F model is more accurate.

BTC’s Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $47.8k, down 4% in the last 7 days. Over the past month, the cryptocurrency has increased 14% in price.

The below chart shows the trend in the coin’s value over the last three months.

BTC’s price catches a downtrend | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

After breaking above the $49k price mark again yesterday, Bitcoin has started to sharply fall down. It looks like the cryptocurrency is in a range market right now as the coin’s price continues to swing between $45k-$50k.

It’s unclear where BTC might head next, but if the S2F model holds any weight, the crypto might be moving big soon in order to reach $100k by Christmas.

Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from PlanBTC.com, TradingView.com

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S2F Creator Beckons Beginning Of Second Leg Of Bitcoin Bull Run

PlanB, the popularizer of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model, says the current bull run still has a second leg remaining.

PlanB “Awaiting” The Second Leg Of This Bitcoin Bull Market

According to PlanB on Twitter, the S2F and S2FX models predict a second leg in the current bull run that will bring new highs for BTC.

As the name may suggest, the Bitcoin S2F or stock-to-flow model is based on the ratio between the stock (supply) and the flow (supply).

The model is actually a general one, meaning it can be applied on any commodity. Higher the S2F value, more scarce is the asset.

The method has been popularly used for precious metals like gold and silver, while PlanB applied it to Bitcoin. Here is how the current S2F price chart for BTC looks like:

The price as predicted by the Bitcoin S2F model | Source: buybitcoinworldwide.com

As the graph shows, BTC’s price seems to be treading remarkably close to the line predicted by the S2F model. There are certain regions of deviations, but the overall trend seems to be intact nonetheless.

Related Reading | A Generational Bitcoin Buy Signal Is Almost Back

Below is the chart that PlanB posted today. It shows BTC’s trajectory after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halving.

Red indicates the current 2020 bull run | Source: PlanB

The two green lines in the chart show the price targets as predicted by the S2F and S2FX models. The S2FX model is a slight modification of the original S2F method.

As the above chart shows, both the rallies after a halving in 2012 (cyan) and 2016 (blue) seem to follow a specific pattern. The peak seems to have shifted later for the 2016 run as compared to the 2012 one.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Accumulation Patterns Shows Rally Might Only Be In Its Early Stages

If there is indeed a pattern here, the current bull run isn’t over and a peak is yet to be reached. Since the time period between the halving and the peak seems to be only going up, the current one will still take a while longer to reach it. This is the “second leg” PlanB awaits.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is just under $36k, up 15% in the last 7 days. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the coin’s value over the past 3 months:

BTC’s price shoots up | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Bitcoin has continued to move up over the weekend as the coin breaks above $45k for the first time since 16 May. It’s unclear whether the crypto can retain the trend and keep pushing forward, or if it would hit another resistance wall and slip back down.

If the S2F pattern indeed holds, then perhaps BTC is headed towards a bull run right now. A related S2F indicator also suggests the coin will move on a tear now that it has touched an important trend line.

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Plan B: The Next 6 Months Will Make Or Break Famed Bitcoin Model

The next 6 months will make or break S2F, the most famous Bitcoin model, says PlanB who popularized the method.

The Stock-To-Flow Model

The S2F model is a simple method used to predict asset prices. PlanB first posted a chart for Bitcoin based on the technique back in 2019.

Here is new chart based on the S2F method for Bitcoin’s current price prediction, posted by PlanB on Twitter:

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC's S2F model | Source: PlanB

The trend predicted by S2F is remarkably close to the real thing. There are a few points of deviation, however, including the current 2021 period.

As the name Stock-To-Flow would imply, it’s calculated by dividing the stock (supply) with the flow (annual production).

Higher the S2F value, more scarce is the commodity. PlanB used this table to showcase how this works:

The S2F values of some precious metals | Source: PlanB

As you can see, the above table shows data for a few precious metals.

The SF value indicates how many years it will take based on the production levels (or flow) to mine out the same amount as the current stock.

For example, in the case of gold, the SF value is 62, which indicates it would take 62 years to take the current stock out of ground.

Related Reading | Why This U.S. Congressman Compared Bitcoin Investment With Playing The Lottery

Such a high value means that gold is a relatively scarce commodity compared to, say, silver, which has its SF value at 22.

During 2019, when this table was released, Bitcoin’s SF value was 25, which means it was scarcer than silver, but not gold.

However, there is one thing to note here. BTC is different to gold and other metals in that their S2F value won’t practically increase much.

Current stock-to-flow value of Bitcoin is around 49, which means the cryptocurrency has only gotten scarcer over the years.

The reason behind BTC’s S2F value sharply going up is the halving (where flow is halved). With each halving, the coin will continue to get scarcer.

Now, here is how the S2F value correlates with the price.

Model price (USD) = exp(-1.84) * SF ^ 3.36

The model is based on the above formula. This is how the chart was generated. Looking back at which, in 2019 almost the same amount of deviation was observed as in 2021 right now.

Related Reading | A Never Wrong Bearish Bitcoin Signal Just Triggered

The 2019 price went back in line with the chart shortly after, while it remains to be seen whether the same will happen this time.

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, BTC‘s price is around $33k. It’s down about 5% in the last 7 days, and almost 8% in the past month.

Bitcoin price

BTC seems to be going down again | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Bitcoin seems to be in a bear market right now, but if the S2F model holds true, the price should go up soon to remain in line with it. The next few months will be a real test for the method.