Six tried and tested on-chain metrics are repeating patterns last seen at the bottom of the past three bear markets.
Historically accurate Bitcoin metric exits buy zone in ‘unprecedented’ 2022 bear market
Bitcoin has historically profited from Puell Multiple lift-offs, but unique macro conditions mean what happens next is uncertain.
3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential ‘macro bottom’
Bitcoin’s upside prospects are supported by at least three on-chain and technical metrics.
Top 5 Watershed Moments In BTC On-Chain Analysis’ History. Is Your Favorite In?
These five moments shaped Bitcoin On-Chain analysis. Down below you’ll find a basic 101 article that reviews the basic concepts of the trade. If you have any problem with the list, David Puell is to blame. He’s a full-time on-chain analyst and the creator of MVRV and Puell Multiple. He didn’t include the metrics he created on the list, which says a lot.
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In the following article, there’s also something for on-chain analysis experts. A side game called: Did your favorite moment make it?
1. ByteCoin invents cointime destroyed in 2011, the very first on-chain metric ever, still used today, and first metric to detect holding behavior in any financial asset.
— David Puell (@kenoshaking) February 17, 2022
Anyway, let’s get into it.
On-Chain Analysis Moment #1- ByteCoin Invents Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) AKA Coin Time Destroyed
Invented In 2011, according to Puell, CDD is “the very first on-chain metric ever, still used today, and first metric to detect holding behavior in any financial asset.” How does the metric detect holders, though? According to Glassnode Academy, “Coin Days Destroyed is a measure of economic activity which gives more weight to coins which haven’t been spent for a long time.”
So, the first eureka moment was to get the coin’s age into the equation. That way, the all-important holders also entered. Glassnode again:
“It is considered an important alternative to looking at total transaction volumes, which may not accurately represent economic activity if value was not stored for a meaningful time. Conversely, coins held in cold storage as a long term store of value are considered economically important when they are spent as it signals a notable change in long-term holder behaviour.”
BTC price chart for 02/17/2022 on Gemini | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
2. Moment #2 – Willy Woo and Chris Burniske Invent NVT Ratio
This one emerged in 2017, and, according to Puell, it’s “where on-chain begins its Golden Age and became clearly an ecosystem of specialists”. It’s also “the first application of traditional economic/financial concepts to Bitcoin”. But, what’s the NVT Ratio specifically? Glassnode Academy responds:
“Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio describes the relationship between market cap and transfer volume. Per Willy Woo, its creator, NVT can be considered analogous to the PE (price to earnings) Ratio used in equity markets.”
Another way to look at it is, “NVT is that it is the inverse of monetary velocity, comparing two of Bitcoin’s primary value propositions”. Those are store of value Vs. settlement/payments network.
3. @nic__carter and @khannib invent realized cap in 2018, the single most important and robust metric in the field, and first verifiable discovery of the cost basis of any asset.
— David Puell (@kenoshaking) February 17, 2022
On-Chain Analysis Moment #3 – Nic Carter And Antoine Le Calvez Invent Realized Capitalization
Created In 2018, Puell thinks Realized Capitalization is “ the single most important and robust metric in the field, and first verifiable discovery of the cost basis of any asset”. But, what is it exactly? According to Glassnode Academy, Realized Capitalization also makes on-chain analysis look into the age of the coins.
“Realized capitalization (realized cap) is a variation of market capitalization that values each UTXO based on the price when it was last moved, as opposed to its current value. As such, it represents the realized value of all the coins in the network, as opposed to their market value.”
Ok, “realized cap reduces the impact of lost and long dormant coins, and weights coins according to their actual presence in the economy of a given chain”. How does it do it, though? Glassnode again:
“When a coin that was last moved at significantly cheaper prices is spent, it will re-value the coins to the current price, and thus increase realized cap by a corresponding amount. Similarly, if a coin is spent at a price lower than when it was last moved, it will re-value to a cheaper price and have a corresponding decrease on realized cap.”
Moment #4 – Dhruv Bansal Invents HODL Waves
Created in 2018, HODL Waves is the “last major primer in on-chain analysis, first metric to segregate supply into different conceptual frameworks”. According to Purell, it’s also the “most comprehensive economic time analysis on Bitcoin to date”. Surprising no one, HODL Waves also looks at the age of the coins. According to Glassnode Academy:
“HODL Waves provide a macro view of the age of coins as a proportion of total coin supply. This provides a gauge on the balance between short term and long term holdings. It can also indicate where changes in this age distribution occur as the thickness of HODL wave bands change in response to dormant coins maturing, or when old coins are spent, resetting their age into the youngest category.”
5. @ErgoBTC releases the forensics of PlusToken in 2019, the grey swan that defined the market structure of Bitcoin for that year and first relevant nation-state attack on the asset.
— David Puell (@kenoshaking) February 17, 2022
On-Chain Analysis Moment #5 – Ergo Releases The Forensics Of PlusToken
This famous case happened in 2019. According to Purell, it’s “the grey swan that defined the market structure of Bitcoin for that year and first relevant nation-state attack on the asset.” For a report on the situation, we had to consult Crypto Briefing, who spoke to:
“Ergo, the lead researcher of the report, told Crypto Briefing in an email that the most striking feature of this scam was its size. “Billion-dollar scams are very rare,” they said. “We did not expect the previously reported 200K BTC volumes to be accurate, but they were.”
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The Ergo team also explained why the laundry of the funds didn’t work that well. It was because they practiced “self-shuffling.” What’s that, you ask? Crypto Briefing again:
“It refers to the “repeated UTXO splitting and merging in hundreds of transactions,” according to the report. This method was both easy to track and the most common way in which PlusToken funds were handled.”
This case wouldn’t be complete without a big institution’s involvement. This time, the suspect is Huobi:
“Huobi played a major role in off-loading these funds too, with nearly 250,000 addresses associated with the PlusToken funds. These addresses were reduced to two clusters which were identified following the incompetent privacy standards.”
Of course, those are just suppositions. When it comes to the giant Huobi, nothing’s been proven.
Feature Image by analogicus on Pixabay | Charts by TradingView
Bitcoin Miners Hold Off On Selling As Their Reserves Reach 2021 High
On-chain data shows Bitcoin miner reserve is growing as miners are accumulating BTC. The Puell Multiple confirms that miners don’t want to sell at the current price level.
Bitcoin Miner Reserves Grow To Highest Value For The Year
As pointed out by a CryptoQuant post, BTC miner reserve has been going up as miners seem to be waiting before selling.
There are two indicators of relevance here. The first is the “miner reserve,” which is a metric that simply measures the amount of Bitcoin that miners are currently holding in their wallets.
An uptrend of this indicator implies miners are accumulating their coins rather than selling. On the contrary, a downtrend would suggest miners might be dumping their Bitcoin.
The other indicator is the famous “Puell Multiple,” a metric that tells us how profitable miners would be compared to the last year if they sold all their mined coins today.
The Puell Multiple’s value is calculated by taking the ratio between the daily value of issued coins and the 365-day moving average of it.
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Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the value of these BTC indicators over the past few months:
Looks like the value of the miner reserve has been going up recently | Source: CryptoQuant
As you can see in the above graph, the BTC miner reserve seems to be increasing. This value of the indicator is the highest it has been for the year.
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Also, the Puell Multiple’s value seems to be around 1.13. Such a low value indicates that miners aren’t finding it that profitable to sell at the current level. This explains the uptrend of the miner reserve as miners are currently holding on to their coins.
So, the Puell Multiple’s current value might mean that Bitcoin is undervalued at the moment. This trend could prove to be bullish for the coin’s price.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $49.7k, down 12% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 26% in value.
The below chart shows the trend in the price of BTC over the last five days.
BTC’s price seems to have only moved sideways in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Since the crash around a week ago, Bitcoin has mostly been in consolidation as the price of the coin looks to be stagnating. Currently, it’s unclear when the crypto might break out of this rangebound market or which direction it will escape in.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
Puell Multiple: The Bitcoin Metric That Says BTC Miners Aren’t Ready To Sell
Miners determine more of bitcoin price than most investors understand. The price at which miners are willing to sell usually correlates with how much profit that they can make from selling the coins that they have mined. Depending on the price of the asset, miners usually choose to sell or hold it. This could influence the market price of bitcoin.
Related Reading | Number Of Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Hits All-Time Low, How This Affects The Price
Profitability is the major reason for mining. But when profitability goes down, miners either sell and cut their losses, or the other option, where they can hold on to their coins and wait for the price to get a point where profitability increases. According to the Puell Multiple, miners are currently choosing the latter. Holding their coins instead of selling for lesser profitability.
Miner Profitability Drops
Data shows that miner profitability has dropped in comparison to the last time that bitcoin was at this price. The profitability for bitcoin back in April at $50K had been 40% higher than it is right now when bitcoin hit $50K again. This means that miner profitability is hitting the lows at all-time highs.
This drop in profitability has seen miners refusing to sell the BTC they are rewarded with for mining blocks. Instead choosing to hold these coins in wait for much higher prices.
Miners are selling less compared to the previous bull market | Source: CryptoQuant
The Miner Position Index (MPI) tells us the ratio of the bitcoins leaving miners’ wallets compared to the one-year moving average. This year, the Miner Position Index shows that this number has fallen to a negative 0.405. A Miner Position Index of 2 or higher means most miners are selling their coins. Below 2 means some are selling. But at a negative 0.405 number, it means almost all of the miners are choosing not to sell their coins.
Bitcoin Price Staggers As Miners Refuse To Sell
Bitcoin price has been on an upward trajectory for the better part of the weekend. Finally breaking the $50K price point on Monday as market sentiment rose into extreme greed. After the break, the price quickly went into a downward correction that dragged the price of BTC back down into the $47K range. A hard-won battle had been fought to get the price above this resistance point. But now it seems the whole process is to be repeated again due to the current dip in price.
BTC price back up above $49,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Another uptrend on Wednesday has put the digital asset on a path to taking back its position over $50K. Indicators show that the bulls still have complete control of the market. Despite the dip, sentiments have not turned into the negative. Buy pressures continue to be the order of the day as both institutional and individual investors clamor for a position in the leading cryptocurrency.
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Despite this, miners do not find this a profitable point to sell. With price projections so high, going up to over $100,000 by the end of the year, it is no surprise that miners are choosing to hold on to their coins for better prices.
Featured image from Bitcoin News, chart from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Bitcoin Fundamentals Suggest Cryptocurrency Is Massively Undervalued
Bitcoin price action might not reflect it, but the leading cryptocurrency by market cap could be massively undervalued, according to a variety of fundamental metrics that focus on coin issuance.
These tools are widely known, but when combined paint a clear picture that backs up any chance that the top coin by market cap is actually undervalued at $40,000 per BTC.
Speculative Boom And Bust Cycles And The Impact On Perception Of Value
Any asset – be it stock, currency, commodity, or otherwise – goes through boom and bust cycles; bull and bear markets. These cycles are more rapid and take place more frequently in crypto than they do in traditional market counterparts.
The reason is both due to the always-on 24/7, global crypto market and the speculative nature of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other top coins. Even with adoption taking place, they’re still far from achieving their potential.
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When speculative assets reach a peak of a bull cycle, they are typically far more overvalued than they should be, which causes such an extreme correction back down toward the “mean.” During bear cycles, speculative assets tend to overcorrect as things appear worse off than they actually are.
Bu this is Bitcoin, and the leading cryptocurrency by market cap might be undervalued even though it recently made a bull market “peak.”
S2F and the Puell Multiple point to an undervalued BTC | Source: BLX on TradingView.com
Bitcoin Undervalued According To S2F Model, Puell Multiple
Bitcoin might have collapsed by 50% along with the rest of the crypto market, but it could be significantly undervalued currently due to the overcorrection.
Bitcoin corrected and it was characteristically extreme, but due to the ongoing lack of supply the cryptocurrency is significantly below the normal trajectory through the stock-to-flow model “bands”.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Trend Strength Indicator Suggests Bull Run Isn’t Yet Over
In addition, the Puell Multiple is bouncing from lows, and during this cycle has yet to enter the red zone which is standard of any Bitcoin bull market “top.” The Puell Multiple is calculated “by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value.”
The S2F model is more complex, but both look at how issuance impacts overall supply and the price per BTC. Combined, the two fundamental tools suggest that the bull market isn’t finished, and is entering its final stages. The last leg up in Bitcoin as past cycles have proven, will be dramatic and entirely driven by FOMO and a distinct lack of supply.
Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or via the TonyTradesBTC Telegram. Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.
Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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