The Bitcoin Monthly Archives

8th November 2022

Amid Macro Uncertainty, Bitcoin Stabilizes. Incredible October Stats Inside

The world is upside down. Is bitcoin stable now? Or is everything else extremely volatile all of a sudden? As the planet descends into chaos, bitcoin remains in a weird limbo that’s uncharacteristic of the asset and doesn’t seem to end. That’s both what it feels like and what the stats say. In the latest ARK Invest’s The Bitcoin Monthly report, they put it like this, “bitcoin finds itself in a tug of war between oversold on-chain conditions and a chaotic macro environment.”

What about the numbers, though? The stats support the thesis, “for the third month in a row, bitcoin continues to trade between support at its investor cost basis ($18,814) and resistance at its 200- week moving average ($23,460).” Three months in that range seems like too much. Something’s got to give. However, that’s what everyone’s been thinking for the last few months and we’re still here.

The Dollar Milkshake Theory

Bitcoin has been less-volatile than usual, sure, but the main factor here is that the whole world is falling to pieces. Every company is in the red, especially techy ones, and all of the world’s currencies except the dollar fell off a cliff. Are we seeing “the dollar milkshake theory” playing out in front of our own eyes? It sure feels that way. Global central banks have been printing bills like there’s no tomorrow, and that extra liquidity is there for the stronger currency to take.

According to professional investor Darren Winter, the “dollar milkshake theory views central bank liquidity as the milkshake and when Fed’s policy transitions from easing to tightening they are exchanging a metaphoric syringe for a big straw sucking liquidity from global markets.” If that’s what we’re seeing, what happens next? Back to The Bitcoin Monthly, ARK says:

“As macro uncertainty and USD strength have increased, foreign currency pairs have been impacted negatively while bitcoin has been relatively stable. Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility is nearly equivalent to that of the GBP and EUR for the first time since October 2016”

BTC price chart for 11/07/2022 on Bitstamp | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin Vs. Other Assets In October

The macro-environment has been so bad lately, that there’s the perception that bitcoin has been doing better than stocks. The facts are that, for the first time since 2020, “bitcoin’s 30-day volatility is on par with the Nasdaq’s and the S&P 500’s.” And, we know past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, but “the last time bitcoin’s volatility declined and equaled the rising volatility of equitiy indices was in late 2018 and early 2019, preceding bullish moves in the BTC price.”

However, let’s not kid ourselves, bitcoin has not been doing good. The thing is, not much is prospering out there. Especially in the tech sector. “The price drawdowns from alltime high in Meta (-75.87%) and Netflix (-76.38) have exceeded that of bitcoin’s (-74.46%). To a lesser extent, Amazon also suggests a correction proportional to that of BTC’s “usual” volatility (-48.05%).”

According to The Bitcoin Monthly, the situation “suggests the severity of the macroeconomic environment and bitcoin’s resilience against it.”

The only constant is change, however. Bitcoin’s stability suggests a violent breakout, either up or down. The entire world can’t remain the red forever, something or someone has got to rise above the crowd and show everyone how it’s done. We’ve been waiting for a resolution for what feels like ages, and we’ll probably have to wait some more. There will be a movement, though. When we least expect it, probably.

Featured Image: Bitcoin 3D logo from The Bitcoin Monthly | Charts by TradingView

17th September 2022

Bitcoin Monthly Stats: Cost Basis, Long-Term Holders, And The Cyclical Bottom

In this month’s The Bitcoin Monthly, ARK Invest focused on Ethereum and the Merge. As a side dish, they did publish some premium and review-worthy stats that we’re about to cover. Never mind the market, the Bitcoin network keeps producing block after block regardless. The stats that this whole activity produces can be critical in understanding the market, though.

That’s where ARK Invest’s The Bitcoin Monthly comes in. The publication defines itself as “an “earnings report” that details on-chain activity and showcases the openness, transparency, and accessibility of blockchain data.” So, the data we’re about to cover is The Bitcoin Monthly’s reason to be.

The Bitcoin Monthly: 200-Week Moving Average And Investor Cost Basis

“After closing above its 200-week moving average in July,1 bitcoin’s price reversed and slipped below it in August. Currently at $22,680, the 200-week moving average now seems to be resistance.”

The center couldn’t hold. The price’s recovery was short-lived. Markets are red across the board and bitcoin is no exception. At the time of writing, bitcoin trades at $19,874. For those keeping score, that’s just below last cycle’s all-time high of $20K. Something that shouldn’t happen, but a few degrees of error are always understandable.

“Bitcoin currently trades above investor cost basis at $19,360, its strongest on-chain support level (…) Importantly, throughout bitcoin’s history, trading at investor price usually marks a bottoming process.”

Times are tough, but bitcoin still trades above investor cost basis. The Bitcoin Monthly clarifies, “Investor price is calculated by subtracting the cost basis of miners from the general cost basis of the market.” As we see it, The Bitcoin Monthly is calling the bottom. They didn’t say it in those exact words, but they certainly insinuated it.

Is the bottom really in, though?

BTC price chart for 09/17/2022 on Gemini | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
The Bitcoin Monthly: Short-Term Holder Vs. Long-Term Holder

“The short-term-holder (STH) cost basis is approaching its longterm-holder (LTH) cost basis ––an event that has marked cyclical bottoms in the past. (…) Since the end of July, the difference between short- and long-term holders’ cost basis has shrunk from $5,840 to $2,500”

The Bitcoin Monthly sees it as a sign that “the market typically is capitulating and shifting back to long-term participation.” Bitcoin’s consolidation process might be ending soon. We could stay for a while in the bottom area, though. That has happened before. The point is, all of the indicators The Bitcoin Monthly highlighted this month point in the same direction. To the bottom.

“The supply held by long-term bitcoin holders is 34,500 coins away from reaching 13.55 million– its all-time high. Long-term-holder supply constitutes 70.6% of total outstanding supply.

This one is the most bullish of all the featured stats. To clarify, coins that haven’t moved in 155 days or more qualify as “long-term holder supply.” The tourists and the people with high hopes left a long time ago. And the lion’s share of the bitcoin supply is now in the true believers’ possession. A remarkable situation that doesn’t get mentioned enough.

About The Ethereum Merge

“In August, ether outperformed bitcoin by 7.6% (…) Historically, ether has outperformed bitcoin during “riskon” bull markets and underperformed during “risk-off” bear markets.”

The merge’s effects affected the market throughout the whole narrative. Even though we’re in a “risk-off bear market,” ETH took over and lead the market for a while there. They accomplished the mythical feat and… the market turned on them. After what seemed like mission accomplished, ETH’s price started to bleed.

Hidden behind a secret door, that’s what The Bitcoin Monthly contained.

Featured Image by Maxim Hopman on Unsplash | Charts by TradingView

9th August 2022

The Bear Market Correction Could Be Over, According To ARK. Reasoning Inside

Rejoice! The bear market might be over. That’s the main thesis behind July’s “The Bitcoin Monthly” report. “Because bitcoin’s price did not rise parabolically during the 2021 bull market, its bear market correction could be over,” ARK reasons. And it makes sense, the numbers seem to suggest it, and it feels like it. However, are we fooling ourselves? Is ARK’s reasoning wishful thinking? Let’s examine the data and see what it tells us.

First of all, “bitcoin closed the month of July up 16.6%, rising from $19,965 to $23,325, its most significant gain since October 2021.” So far, so good. Can we declare that the bear market correction is over, though? Well, “the likelihood of touching its delta cost basis has diminished, bitcoin’s downside risk in a bear market technically stands at its delta cost basis, currently $13,890.” This number seems far away. Maybe bitcoin is slowly getting out of its slum.

“Bitcoin has corrected 72% relative to its alltime high. Although this drawdown is consistent with intracyclical corrections, like the COVID collapse in 2020, bitcoin usually finds global cyclical bottoms with a correction greater than 80%.”

That doesn’t sound as promising. Maybe there’s more pain ahead, however… “Given the positive correlation between bitcoin and US equities since COVID, the US being the leading price mover of bitcoin suggests an emerging risk-on market environment,” ARK claims. Apparently, the US has been leading the bulls lately. Perfect. Bitcoin needs all the help it can get in these trying times.

Are We Leaving The Bear Market? Let’s Look At The Signs

“Contagion in the crypto markets appears to be contained, as Celsius and Three Arrows Capital officially file for bankruptcy.”

Announcing the Celsius news, NewsBTC said “After weeks of conjecture and hearsay, Celsius’s legal counsels have formally informed regulators that the cryptocurrency lender has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.” Announcing the 3AC one, we said, “Crypto hedge fund 3 Arrows Capital is slated to be another pillar piece of 2022’s bear market headlines, joining the likes of brutal bear market moments that include Terra Luna’s downfall and CeFi’s drama.”

“Leverage appears to be unwinding across the crypto ecosystem, paving a path to recovery”

That’s phenomenal. May this continue to happen.

“After trading below its investor cost basis for the first time since March 2020, bitcoin has reclaimed major support levels and is trading above its market cost basis.”

Great news. Is this real, then? Are we getting out of the bear market this fast?

BTC price chart for 08/09/2022 on Kraken | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
Other Factors, Miners And Lightning

“Despite continued miner pressure, bitcoin’s economics are at equilibrium.”

Ok, some miners sold and others turned down their machines. However, the pressure seems to be subsiding and the sun seems to be shining.

“Bitcoin’s scaling solutions appear to be gaining momentum, as capacity on the Lightning Network reaches an all-time high.”

The Lightning Network went head to head with the bear market and didn’t even flinch. People are building and the L2 solution is bigger and better than ever. “LN capacity growth seems to accelerate during bear markets, marking a shift in sentiment from exuberance and speculation to testing and building longterm solutions for bitcoin.”

“Given continued declines in economic activity, including employment, the Federal Reserve could pivot during the second half of the year.”

Is the US in the middle of a recession? Opinions vary, but the results are the same. People all over the world are struggling. “The drop was attributable largely to a decrease in inventories, residential and non-residential investments, and government spending. Strong recession signals could compel the Fed to change its hawkish stance,” ARK states.

“The 10-year Treasury bond yield has been unable to sustain a move above 3% and is now falling, posing less competition to cryptoassets.”

Government bonds were the safest investment for years and years. Nowadays, they’re not the new kid on the block anymore. Bitcoin is the new kid on the block. This bear market might not have been more than “brief deviation.” We might be back in business after all.

Featured Image by Alexa from Pixabay | Charts by TradingView

7th June 2022

ARK: Now Decoupled From Terra, “Bitcoin’s Selling Pressure Should Subside”

The Terra / Luna / UST collapse keeps on generating headlines. This time, we’ll use the data in ARK’s “The Bitcoin Monthly” report to establish its impact on the bitcoin ecosystem. Remember that the non-profit organization LFG, AKA as the Luna Foundation Guard, was accumulating BTC to defend UST’s peg to the dollar. In a then-delated May interview, Terra’s Do Kwon said that they were trying to get to $1B in BTC so that “besides Satoshi, we will be the largest single holder of Bitcoin in the world.” He also proclaimed, “within the crypto industry, the failure of UST is equivalent to the failure of crypto itself.”

Related Reading | Terra Beats Tesla As Second-Largest Corporate Bitcoin Holder After $1.5B Purchase

At one point, it appeared that BTC and UST destinies were inextricably linked, but the bitcoin network absorbed the collapse nearly unscathed. Let’s look at ARK’s numbers and try to figure out how it did it.

Terra, The Largest L-1 Blockchain Failure Ever

At this point, everybody knows what happened with Terra. Nobody knows how it happened, though. Was it a coordinated attack or did the natural market’s forces trigger the death spiral event? We wouldn’t know, but the fact of the matter is that the UST de-pegged from the dollar causing a bank run in the Anchor protocol, and the eventual demise of the algorithmic stablecoin and its twin, LUNA.

How big was the collapse? According to ARK’s report:

“In addition to causing the crash in UST and Luna, we believe Terra is the largest layer-1 blockchain failure in crypto history, wiping out a combined $60 billion of market capitalization between UST and Luna.”

Huge in size by any metric, but, how does it compare to previous crypto collapses? The only comparable collapse was “the Mt. Gox hack that stole 5.7% of total crypto market cap in 2014, Terra’s collapse destroyed roughly 2.7% of crypto’s total market capitalization.” The Mt. Gox hack almost destroyed the bitcoin network at a time when it was more vulnerable. The Terra collapse felt like a breeze in comparison, but, as the numbers show, it wasn’t.

BTC price chart for 06/07/2022 on Eightcap | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
How Did The Terra Collapse Affect BTC?

Besides the LFG foundation reportedly selling its 80K BTC, the collapse created extreme selling pressure on bitcoin. According to the report, “exchanges recorded net inflows of 52,000 bitcoin, the largest daily inflow in BTC terms since November 2017 and the largest inflow ever in USD terms.” These are notable numbers.

Bitcoin Net Flows To and From Exchanges | Source: ARK’s “The Bitcoin Monthly”

According to the bitcoin blockchain, the account associated with “LFG currently holds 313 BTC, down from 80,934 BTC held prior to Terra’s unraveling”. Did they sell the rest, though? Nobody knows for sure. Back to the report:

“To backstop UST’s peg, The Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) reportedly sold most of its ~80,000-bitcoin reserves, contributing to this record inflow.”

Surprising even hardcore bitcoiners, the network resisted this massive sell-off without breaking a sweat. Sure, bitcoin’s price suffered, but the blow wasn’t even close to being fatal. And ARK’s prediction reflects that fact, “now decoupled from the Terra blockchain, bitcoin’s selling pressure should subside, yet contagion in the crypto markets is still inconclusive.” Why? Because “bitcoin’s more secure and conservative blockchain should gain market share.”

Are Algorithmic Stablecoins Even Possible?

To answer this we’ll quote NYDIG’s report “On Impossible Things Before Breakfast,” which comes with the subtitle, “a post-mortem on Terra, a pre-mortem on DeFi, and a glimpse of the madness to come.” As the titles gave away, NYDIG believes that not algorithmic stablecoins nor DeFi as it currently stands are possible. Why? Well…

“No matter how well intentioned, all algorithmic stablecoins will fail and the vast majority – possibly all – of DeFi’s current versions will fail, where “fail” here means not gaining sufficient critical mass to matter, being hacked, blowing up, or being altered by regulation to the point of non-viability. In the end, the Terra project could control the supply of its money, but it couldn’t make its people value it. A printing press was the only (non)answer. Sound familiar? Lacking a lender of last resort, DeFi (re)creates the problems solved by central banks. Bitcoin solves the problems created by central banks.”

Related Reading | TerraLabs Sold Over 80,000 BTC To Rescue Its Stablecoin

As it usually happens, we could summarize this whole article with the old adage: “Bitcoin fixes this.”

Featured Image by Louis Maniquet on Unsplash | Charts by TradingView

4th June 2022

ARK Invest: Despite The 9 Red Candles, “Bitcoin’s Fundamentals Remain Strong”

The inaugural edition of ARK ’s “The Bitcoin Monthly” report contains some gems. It also contains a simple compilation of facts that paint a clear picture of the bitcoin market as it currently stands. A blockchain is an unalterable fountain of evidence, and ARK put their best analysts to review it in-depth and get stats and insights for us. Get some coffee and take a seat, let’s forget about the Fear & Greed index and see what the numbers are really saying.

Excited to introduce the first official issue of “The Bitcoin Monthly”

Starting this month, ARK will be publishing an in-depth report covering Bitcoin’s market action and sharing where we think the market's headed.

Here are the major highlights from this month’s report:

— Yassine Elmandjra (@yassineARK) June 3, 2022

Over at Twitter, ARK Analyst Yassine Elmandjra described “The Bitcoin Monthly” as: “Starting this month, ARK will be publishing an in-depth report covering Bitcoin’s market action and sharing where we think the market’s headed.” On ARK’s website, they describe the new venture as: “Considering the market’s fast pace of change, ARK publishes The Bitcoin Monthly, an “earnings report” that details relevant on-chain activity and showcases the openness, transparency, and accessibility of blockchain data.”

Related Reading | Bitcoin Price Closes Two Consecutive Weekly Red Candles, First Time Since Bottom

Let’s check the data and insights available in May’s edition.

The State Of The Bitcoin Market, With ARK

According to “The Bitcoin Monthly”:

“Bitcoin closed the month of May down 17.2%, declining from $38,480 to $31,835.”

Let’s be honest, this looks like the beginning of a bear market. And the Terra/ Luna crash appears to be the catalytic event. However, subsequent data will show that we might not be in one after all.

“Bitcoin closed the month down 17.2%, printing its ninth consecutive negative weekly decline for the first time in history, suggesting a possible oversold condition.”

Nine consecutive red candles, a new record. That’s a horrific fact no matter how you dress it. However, according to ARK, it suggests “a possible oversold condition.” Which is promising.

“Bitcoin is down 57% since reaching an alltime high in November 2021. For perspective, the average peak-to-trough drawdown during previous bear markets stands at 76%.”

Does this mean things could get worst? Or does it mean we’re not near bear market levels? It definitely feels bear-markety, but the stats are the stats.

BTC price chart for 06/04/2022 on Exmo | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
The Bitcoin Network Stands Strong

“Despite the continued sell-off, bitcoin has not broken below any major trendline. It is trading above its onchain cost basis at ~$24,000 and its 200- week moving average at ~$22,000.”

The bitcoin network absorbed Terra/Luna’s massive sell-off and the market’s subsequent one like a champ. The worst seems to be behind us and bitcoin “has not broken below any major trendline.”

“An all-time of nearly 66% of bitcoin’s supply has not moved in over a year, a testament to the market’s longer-term focus and a holder base with stronger conviction.”

Despite the massive market movement, bitcoiners keep HODLing like it’s the only chance at economic freedom that they’ll see in their lifetimes. Because it is.

“Short-term holder positions fell -35% below their breakeven price, on average.”

If bitcoiners are HODLing, who’s selling all those cheap sats? Short-term holders, that’s who. And they’re not even close to breaking even. It’s a short-term holders massacre out there.

ARK Sees A Way For The Market To Jumpstart Itself

Look, hear ARK out. First of all, “bitcoin’s open interest in the futures market has reached an all-time high of approximately 450,000 BTC.” Also, “perpetual contract basis typically hints at market direction. Currently, it is trading at a bullish discount to spot.” This is very important because, “given the high open interest outstanding, we believe the perpetual futures discount indicates a potential upward trajectory in BTC’s next major price movement.”

Related Reading | Revisiting Dorsey’s Hyperinflation Tweet: Elon, Wood, Saylor, Balaji, Chip In

That’s right, ARK closes “The Bitcoin Monthly” report predicting “a potential upward trajectory.”

Featured Image by Ricardo Gomez Angel on Unsplash | Charts by TradingView