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ARK: Now Decoupled From Terra, “Bitcoin’s Selling Pressure Should Subside”

The Terra / Luna / UST collapse keeps on generating headlines. This time, we’ll use the data in ARK’s “The Bitcoin Monthly” report to establish its impact on the bitcoin ecosystem. Remember that the non-profit organization LFG, AKA as the Luna Foundation Guard, was accumulating BTC to defend UST’s peg to the dollar. In a then-delated May interview, Terra’s Do Kwon said that they were trying to get to $1B in BTC so that “besides Satoshi, we will be the largest single holder of Bitcoin in the world.” He also proclaimed, “within the crypto industry, the failure of UST is equivalent to the failure of crypto itself.”

Related Reading | Terra Beats Tesla As Second-Largest Corporate Bitcoin Holder After $1.5B Purchase

At one point, it appeared that BTC and UST destinies were inextricably linked, but the bitcoin network absorbed the collapse nearly unscathed. Let’s look at ARK’s numbers and try to figure out how it did it. 

Terra, The Largest L-1 Blockchain Failure Ever

At this point, everybody knows what happened with Terra. Nobody knows how it happened, though. Was it a coordinated attack or did the natural market’s forces trigger the death spiral event? We wouldn’t know, but the fact of the matter is that the UST de-pegged from the dollar causing a bank run in the Anchor protocol, and the eventual demise of the algorithmic stablecoin and its twin, LUNA.

How big was the collapse? According to ARK’s report:

“In addition to causing the crash in UST and Luna, we believe Terra is the largest layer-1 blockchain failure in crypto history, wiping out a combined $60 billion of market capitalization between UST and Luna.”

Huge in size by any metric, but, how does it compare to previous crypto collapses? The only comparable collapse was “the Mt. Gox hack that stole 5.7% of total crypto market cap in 2014, Terra’s collapse destroyed roughly 2.7% of crypto’s total market capitalization.” The Mt. Gox hack almost destroyed the bitcoin network at a time when it was more vulnerable. The Terra collapse felt like a breeze in comparison, but, as the numbers show, it wasn’t. 

BTC price chart for 06/07/2022 on Eightcap | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
How Did The Terra Collapse Affect BTC?

Besides the LFG foundation reportedly selling its 80K BTC, the collapse created extreme selling pressure on bitcoin. According to the report, “exchanges recorded net inflows of 52,000 bitcoin, the largest daily inflow in BTC terms since November 2017 and the largest inflow ever in USD terms.” These are notable numbers. 

Bitcoin Net Flows To and From Exchanges | Source: ARK’s “The Bitcoin Monthly”

According to the bitcoin blockchain, the account associated with “LFG currently holds 313 BTC, down from 80,934 BTC held prior to Terra’s unraveling”. Did they sell the rest, though? Nobody knows for sure. Back to the report: 

“To backstop UST’s peg, The Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) reportedly sold most of its ~80,000-bitcoin reserves, contributing to this record inflow.”

Surprising even hardcore bitcoiners, the network resisted this massive sell-off without breaking a sweat. Sure, bitcoin’s price suffered, but the blow wasn’t even close to being fatal. And ARK’s prediction reflects that fact, “now decoupled from the Terra blockchain, bitcoin’s selling pressure should subside, yet contagion in the crypto markets is still inconclusive.” Why? Because “bitcoin’s more secure and conservative blockchain should gain market share.”

Are Algorithmic Stablecoins Even Possible?

To answer this we’ll quote NYDIG’s report “On Impossible Things Before Breakfast,” which comes with the subtitle, “a post-mortem on Terra, a pre-mortem on DeFi, and a glimpse of the madness to come.” As the titles gave away, NYDIG believes that not algorithmic stablecoins nor DeFi as it currently stands are possible. Why? Well…

“No matter how well intentioned, all algorithmic stablecoins will fail and the vast majority – possibly all – of DeFi’s current versions will fail, where “fail” here means not gaining sufficient critical mass to matter, being hacked, blowing up, or being altered by regulation to the point of non-viability. In the end, the Terra project could control the supply of its money, but it couldn’t make its people value it. A printing press was the only (non)answer. Sound familiar? Lacking a lender of last resort, DeFi (re)creates the problems solved by central banks. Bitcoin solves the problems created by central banks.”

Related Reading | TerraLabs Sold Over 80,000 BTC To Rescue Its Stablecoin

As it usually happens, we could summarize this whole article with the old adage: “Bitcoin fixes this.”

Featured Image by Louis Maniquet on Unsplash | Charts by TradingView

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ARK Invest: Despite The 9 Red Candles, “Bitcoin’s Fundamentals Remain Strong”

The inaugural edition of ARK ’s “The Bitcoin Monthly” report contains some gems. It also contains a simple compilation of facts that paint a clear picture of the bitcoin market as it currently stands. A blockchain is an unalterable fountain of evidence, and ARK put their best analysts to review it in-depth and get stats and insights for us. Get some coffee and take a seat, let’s forget about the Fear & Greed index and see what the numbers are really saying.

Excited to introduce the first official issue of “The Bitcoin Monthly”

Starting this month, ARK will be publishing an in-depth report covering Bitcoin’s market action and sharing where we think the market's headed.

Here are the major highlights from this month’s report:

— Yassine Elmandjra (@yassineARK) June 3, 2022

Over at Twitter, ARK Analyst Yassine Elmandjra described “The Bitcoin Monthly” as: “Starting this month, ARK will be publishing an in-depth report covering Bitcoin’s market action and sharing where we think the market’s headed.” On ARK’s website, they describe the new venture as: “Considering the market’s fast pace of change, ARK publishes The Bitcoin Monthly, an “earnings report” that details relevant on-chain activity and showcases the openness, transparency, and accessibility of blockchain data.”

Related Reading | Bitcoin Price Closes Two Consecutive Weekly Red Candles, First Time Since Bottom

Let’s check the data and insights available in May’s edition.

The State Of The Bitcoin Market, With ARK

According to “The Bitcoin Monthly”:

  • “Bitcoin closed the month of May down 17.2%, declining from $38,480 to $31,835.”

Let’s be honest, this looks like the beginning of a bear market. And the Terra/ Luna crash appears to be the catalytic event. However, subsequent data will show that we might not be in one after all. 

  • “Bitcoin closed the month down 17.2%, printing its ninth consecutive negative weekly decline for the first time in history, suggesting a possible oversold condition.”

Nine consecutive red candles, a new record. That’s a horrific fact no matter how you dress it. However, according to ARK, it suggests “a possible oversold condition.” Which is promising. 

  • “Bitcoin is down 57% since reaching an alltime high in November 2021. For perspective, the average peak-to-trough drawdown during previous bear markets stands at 76%.”

Does this mean things could get worst? Or does it mean we’re not near bear market levels? It definitely feels bear-markety, but the stats are the stats. 

BTC price chart for 06/04/2022 on Exmo | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
The Bitcoin Network Stands Strong

  • “Despite the continued sell-off, bitcoin has not broken below any major trendline. It is trading above its onchain cost basis at ~$24,000 and its 200- week moving average at ~$22,000.”

The bitcoin network absorbed Terra/Luna’s massive sell-off and the market’s subsequent one like a champ. The worst seems to be behind us and bitcoin “has not broken below any major trendline.”

  • “An all-time of nearly 66% of bitcoin’s supply has not moved in over a year, a testament to the market’s longer-term focus and a holder base with stronger conviction.”

Despite the massive market movement, bitcoiners keep HODLing like it’s the only chance at economic freedom that they’ll see in their lifetimes. Because it is.

  • “Short-term holder positions fell -35% below their breakeven price, on average.”

If bitcoiners are HODLing, who’s selling all those cheap sats? Short-term holders, that’s who. And they’re not even close to breaking even. It’s a short-term holders massacre out there.

ARK Sees A Way For The Market To Jumpstart Itself

Look, hear ARK out. First of all, “bitcoin’s open interest in the futures market has reached an all-time high of approximately 450,000 BTC.” Also, “perpetual contract basis typically hints at market direction. Currently, it is trading at a bullish discount to spot.” This is very important because, “given the high open interest outstanding, we believe the perpetual futures discount indicates a potential upward trajectory in BTC’s next major price movement.”

Related Reading | Revisiting Dorsey’s Hyperinflation Tweet: Elon, Wood, Saylor, Balaji, Chip In

That’s right, ARK closes “The Bitcoin Monthly” report predicting “a potential upward trajectory.”

Featured Image by Ricardo Gomez Angel on Unsplash | Charts by TradingView

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Dave Portnoy Is Now A Bitcoiner, Thinks You’re An Idiot If You Don’t Hold Any

A few days ago, Dave Portnoy returned to Bitcoin with an almost $1.1M buy of 29.5 BTC. Today, he thinks “you are an idiot if it’s not part of your portfolio.” The Barstool Sports owner and main personality might have a point, but the whole situation is still funny. Especially, considering everything Portnoy has said about Bitcoin over the years. 

Related Reading | Barstool’s Dave Portnoy Wants to Buy Bitcoin – Asks Winklevoss Twins to Teach Him

The born-again Bitcoiner visited Stuart Varney in his “Varney & Co.” show at the FOX Business Network. This is what happened:

Always fun joining @Varneyco to talk Bitcoin, $Penn and Brady pic.twitter.com/NNUV3ALlpW

— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) February 4, 2022

What Did Dave Portnoy Tell Stuart Varney About Bitcoin?

In 2020, the Winklevoss twins helped Portnoy to make his first Bitcoin investment. There was a small dip, and Portnoy panicked and sold it all. The community mocked him, and he went on to make questionable investments, but that’s neither here nor there. In the “Varney & Co.” interview, Portnoy reveals “I was waiting for my reentry point.” Impressively, he bought in at $36.9K.

Then, Stuart Varney reminds Dave Portnoy that he said he was getting out of Bitcoin because he didn’t understand it, and asks him if he does now. Portnoy responds, “No, no I haven’t figured them out. But here’s what I have figured out, Bitcoin is here to stay. It’s not going anywhere. It’s widely adopted. You see main institutions getting in. It’s the future.”

Even though Portnoy has a point, it’s funny that he hasn’t even begun to do the homework yet. He just trusts the main institutions’ research and due diligence and goes with it. Retail investors don’t have that luxury, but Portnoy is a wealthy man and his investment is just a small part of his portfolio. In any case, he promises that he will build on it, and eventually, “I’ll probably have a Billion dollars worth of Bitcoin.”

What Gives Bitcoin Its Value?

Near the end of the Bitcoin talk, Varney challenges him. He tells Portnoy that he’s too old to wait for Bitcoin to take over, and then, Varney tells him what he really thinks: “It’s a gambling chip. It’s not a store of value.” Portnoy, who hasn’t done the homework, can’t answer in a proper fashion. We can, though.

According to Varney, Bitcoin’s price “depends entirely on how many people want to buy it and how many people want to sell it.” That’s true, like every market on Earth the price of bitcoin responds to supply and demand. However, the value of Bitcoin comes from the network. 

All over the world, thousands of people invested their money in ASICs that validate transactions. They buy energy, secure the network, and get compensated for it by a system that no one controls and has no owner. And, thousands of node operators keep everyone in check. Plus, millions of holders took their money out of the traditional system and bet on this emerging one. And this is just the beginning. 

Besides that, those “gambling chips” that Varney mentioned happen to have the characteristics of perfect money. Mankind has been looking for something like this since it realized that it needed some kind of technology to organize and facilitate trade, which is the bedrock of society. However, if someone owned the Bitcoin network, “the characteristics of perfect money” wouldn’t be worth a damn. But, no one does. Bitcoin is for everyone.

BTC price chart for 02/05/2022 on Gemini | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
What Has Portnoy Said About Bitcoin?

Mark this as this article’s comedy section. When Portnoy first liquidated all of his bitcoin investment, these were the numbers he was dealing with:

“Portnoy clarified a day later that he actually lost $20,000 from his initial $1,250,000 investment, which amounts to a mere 1.6%. Many in the cryptocurrency space referenced the number, noting how Portnoy wasn’t ready for the fast and volatile Bitcoin market.”

After being mocked, he doubled down on his stance and tried to get people to focus on the stock market. 

“I’m begging my crypto friends to get involved in the stockmarket. Bitcoin is stuck in the mud. Let me lead you. We will get back to crypto later. The time to strike is now! No time for weak hands! Make the move!”

Related Reading | Seller’s Remorse: Day Trader Dave Portnoy Swears Off Bitcoin

To make things funnier, when Portnoy bought Safemoon, he promised:

“I’m never buying Bitcoin. Never never, I don’t believe a thing about it. But I do think it’s profitable, and I think there’s enough steam that it may just continue to go up forever. But I don’t buy the underlying junk behind it.”

Maybe that’s because Portnoy hasn’t even done the minimum effort to understand “the underlying junk behind it.” However, cheers to him for admitting his assessment of the situation was wrong and correcting his course.

Featured Image: screenshot from Portnoy in Varney & Co. | Charts by TradingView