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Bitcoin & The Global Currency Meltdown | BTCUSD September 28, 2022

In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we examine how Bitcoin is trading against other currency pairs and not USD. We also look at BTC against WTI Crude Oil and the S&P 500.

Take a look at the video below:

VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): September 28, 2022

The market continues to be shaken up by the strength of the dollar. Following yesterday’s rally in BTC that was immediately wiped out, traders are even more hesitant to pull the trigger with the top cryptocurrency rising again.

Bitcoin Daily Momentum Change Causes Chain Reaction

Bitcoin daily has flipped bullish on the LMACD, setting off a chain reaction across a variety of timeframes. In terms of this chain reaction, we have a bullish crossover on the 3-day and the weekly timeframe. Both, especially the weekly, have been like bait, snapping back at bulls each time they attempt to turn the tides of momentum.

 

Momentum causes a bullish chain reaction of crossovers | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
How BTC Fares Against Other World Currencies

The DXY Dollar Currency Index is the dollar trading against a weighted basket of top national currencies. These currencies include the British pound sterling, the euro, the Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc.

Due to the enormous shakeup and volatility in global currency markets, we put Bitcoin up against other currencies and not the standard USD pair.

As you can see, the pound, euro, canadian dollar, and Japanese yen all crossed bullish weeks prior, while the USD pair struggles to do so. Other strong national currencies like the Swedish krona and Swiss franc have yet to cross over much like the dollar. 

Bitcoin could be bottoming against several top currencies | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows Resilience In Dollar-Driven Bloodbath | BTCUSD September 26, 2022

Comparing The Top Crypto To The S&P 500 And WTI Crude Oil

Continuing the deep dive into unorthodox Bitcoin charts, we’ve combined the charts of BTCUSD and the SPX. This unique chart shows that Bitcoin never made a higher high in late 2021, and the downtrend began with the April peak. This chart also is flipping bullish and has a weekly close confirming the crossover.  Bullish momentum will need to grow to sustain a rally.

Next, we’ve compared Bitcoin to what could be the most important macro asset globally: oil. In this comparison, much like the SPX example, we put BTCUSD up against WTI Crude Oil. WTI Crude oil is American produced oil from West Texas Intermediate. 

In this oddball trading pair, Bitcoin also had a lower high and a much steeper downtrend. However, Bitcoin flipped bullish against oil several weeks ago, but has yet to produce a meaningful upside move. Is such a move coming soon enough?

Bitcoin has crossed bullish against the SPX and WTI Crude Oil | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Learn crypto technical analysis yourself with the NewsBTC Trading Course. Click here to access the free educational program.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

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WATCH: Ethereum Gains Momentum Ahead Of The Merge | ETHUSD September 6, 2022

In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we are going to look at Ethereum ahead of the Merge across a variety of timeframes using both the USD trading pair and versus Bitcoin.

Take a look at the video below:

VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (ETHUSD & ETHBTC): September 6, 2022

Not much has changed in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies since last week. However, Ethereum continues to gear up for the upcoming Merge and posted some decent gains over the weekend. Here is a closer look at Ethereum performance ahead of the Merge.

On daily timeframes, ETHUSD closed above the middle-Bollinger Band and should make another run at local highs. A potential bull flag breakout could hint at a larger rally. A bullish crossover of the LMACD also supports momentum carrying Ether prices higher.

Further adding credence to an up-move, ETHUSD is above the Tenkan-sen and is attempting to close above Kumo cloud resistance. Notably, Ether was rejected from the bottom of the cloud before losing support at around $2,500.

Will a bull flag lead Ethereum higher? | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com
The Signal From Ether’s Most Powerful Rallies

Ethereum is right up against the middle-Bollinger Band on weekly timeframes. Closing above the middle line, which is a simple moving average set at 20-periods, has led to some of the cryptocurrency’s strongest rallies. For example, in 2017, closing above it led to a 13,000% increase before a bear market started. The idea of a rally is possibly supported by a bullish crossover of the LMACD. 

To truly become bullish, Ethereum must reclaim the Ichimoku cloud. However, price has already closed above the Tenkan-sen on the weekly which is a start. Interestingly, Bitcoin is still stuck below this line by comparison, while Ether is well above it. 

Making it above the mid-BB could be significant | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

Related Reading: WATCH: Bitcoin September To Remember: The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly | BTCUSD September 1, 2022

ETHUSD Future Forecast: A Storm Is Coming

Before we move into a more direct comparison of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the rarely used 3-week timeframe could be very telling. There are only five days left in the candle and ETHUSD has to move up from the current level or else it will close through the Ichimoku cloud.

In the past, closing through the cloud led to a large down-move and the final bottom. It is worth noting that closing through the cloud swept support during the last bear market. This time around, support was already swept. Bearish momentum is also weakening on the timeframe according to the LMACD, so a reversal is possible.

The 3-week timeframe warns of danger or reversal | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com
The Merge To Lead Strong Outperformance Against Bitcoin

ETHBTC is above the mid-BB which in the past has led to some of the largest rallies, much like the USD trading pair example. Ethereum is also up against the upper Bollinger Band on weekly timeframes versus BTC so a similar push outside of the bands is possible. 

Importantly, Ethereum retested the Ichimoku cloud on weekly timeframes and is pushing up against neckline resistance on a five-year long inverse head and shoulders bottom. From the head to the neckline was a 400% move, so the breakout from resistance could lead to enormous overperformance in Ethereum versus Bitcoin.

An inverse head and shoulders could send ETH higher | Source: ETHBTC on TradingView.com
Why A Massive Move Could Be Coming Against BTC

Finally, switching back to the 3-week timeframe used for the USD pair, Ethereum has taken out the cloud after retesting the Kijun-sen and confirming it as support. This also could hint at curved parabolic support forming. This is the first major consolidation after ETHBTC broke out from downtrend resistance, and the LMACD appears ready to cross upward and send Ethereum much higher versus Bitcoin.

Will the Merge be the catalyst crypto bulls are hoping for? Make sure to leave a comment in the video above. Remember to also subscribe to the NewsBTC YouTube channel and follow us on Twitter.

High timeframes suggest there are clear skies ahead for Ether | Source: ETHBTC on TradingView.com

Learn crypto technical analysis yourself with the NewsBTC Trading Course. Click here to access the free educational program.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

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Stablecoins Total Market Cap Breaches $179 Billion Mark – Can It Go Higher?

Stablecoins, the digital currency that is the talk of the town, are gradually taking over the crypto world as more users and corporations vie for its benefits.

Such news doesn’t come as a surprise anymore. As the total value of the world’s 12,333 digital currencies approaches $1.8 trillion, the stablecoin economy has recently grown to $179 billion, or nearly 10% of the total crypto economy.

This record has been much quicker to attain compared to last year, where it took around two months to see the transfer volume surpass $150 billion. In 2020, it took nine months to surpass this milestone. As for 2019, it lasted an entire year.

What Are Stablecoins?

The volatility of tokens has always been one of the major challenges to cryptocurrency investing. Bitcoin, for example, can drastically change in value by the minute.

Stablecoins are established to tackle that problem surrounding blockchains; it aims to keep track and match the value of the fiat currency US dollars (USD).

Tether (USDT), the first established stablecoin and still the most successful to this day, was merely introduced as a digital token with “a stable price.”

This works as the Tether Foundation keeps 1 USD in reserve for every USDT issued, keeping its price stabilized around $1 since each unit of USDT could be redeemed for one of the US dollars in the reserve.

USDTUSD trading at 1.00080000 on the daily chart | Source: TradingView.com

Related Reading | On-Chain Data Shows Surge In Stablecoins Supply Pouring Into Bitcoin

Tether began with very little resources, having gotten little exposure from the public.

However, as Bitcoin’s price began to rise in 2017 and the risk brought by volatility became greater, Tether was also catapulted to the mainstream.

From its $1 million-mark in 2016, it surpassed a little less than $10 million in January 2017. By January 2018, as bitcoin’s price was skyrocketing to $20K, the Tether coin supply had ballooned to more than $1.4 billion.

Projected Growth

Many crypto enthusiasts and analysts point out that stablecoins are gaining momentum because their total supply is increasing marginally.

Most stablecoins are issued and backed by third parties, guaranteeing legitimacy on the side of customers. Some of the popular stablecoins along with Tether are Center’s USD Coin (USDC) and Binance’s BUSD, accounting for a little less than the entire supply of the digital token.

USDT is the leading stablecoin with a market cap of almost $78 billion, followed by USDC at almost $51 billion market cap.

It is because of stablecoins’ cryptographic security and programmability that the robust use cases currently driving the use of stablecoins are supported.

We can expect to see more innovation and growth in payment systems as a result of the use of stablecoins in the future.

Related Reading | Tethered Up: How Stablecoins Plan To Stay Stable

Image from CoinGeek, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Should Not Be Measured In Dollar Terms, Says Pompliano

The value of bitcoin is currently being measured in dollar terms and this is understandable given that fiat is still the most dominant form of currency. While those in the crypto space believe this will not continue for much longer, it is still important to price the digital asset in fiat currency to show its value to investors.

However, millionaire investor Anthony Pompliano has countered against this accepted form of valuing bitcoin. He addressed the way the digital asset is valued as well as the dreaded volatility on a recent episode of CNBC’s Squawk Box.

Don’t Value Bitcoin In Dollars

Presently, one bitcoin is trading for around $51K. This apparent value is derived from the dollar, which confers a fiat value upon an asset that was created to replace it. Pompliano says that this should not be so. Instead, bitcoin should be priced in bitcoin. This way, “one Bitcoin still equals one Bitcoin,” says the investor.

Related Reading | Billionaire Ricardo Salinas: Forget Fiat, Buy Bitcoin Bitcoin Instead

Bitcoin’s value, when gauged in bitcoin, does not really change. The deflationary asset was designed in a way that it appreciates in value over time rather than depreciate, as is the case with the dollar.

However, Pompliano notes that people ignore or overlook this part because they are so used to using dollars in their everyday lives. Bitcoin was never really meant to be priced in dollars as the issues that already plague the fiat currency could then translate onto the asset, for example, its volatility.

“The dollar itself is hyper volatile as well,” said Pompliano. “We just don’t think of that because all of the goods and services around us are priced in dollars.”

BTC continues downtrend | BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Volatility Is Good When It Favors You

Speaking to host Joe Kernen, Pompliano revealed his thoughts around the volatility that is one of the hallmarks of bitcoin. Said volatility has been one of the most mentioned reasons when prominent figures and governments have advised investors to steer clear of the digital asset, explaining that they are prone to losses due to the widely fluctuating nature of the prices.

Related Reading | Why Bitcoin Will Never Surpass The Market Cap Of Gold

Pompliano however does not see bitcoin’s volatility to be a bad thing. He explained that volatility is mainly a matter of how it affects an investor. An example of this is when a digital asset’s price swings upwards and the investor realizes gains from this move. In this scenario, they would accept volatility as being a good thing. But if the opposite happens, then it would be regarded as a bad thing.

“Volatility is not good or bad, right? Basically, volatility is only bad when it goes against you, so if you long an asset and it goes down you don’t like volatility, if you long an asset and it goes up, you do like volatility.”

The millionaire also pointed out that another issue was that bitcoin’s volatility was also being mentioned in dollars. Given the latter’s also volatile and depreciating nature, Pompliano said that it was a flawed way of measuring volatility.

Featured image from CoinDesk, chart from TradingView.com

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Turkish Lira Vs BTC: What’s Behind The Bitcoin Chart You Can’t Miss

Bitcoin price quoted in United States dollars has been suffering from a sharp and sudden downtrend after setting a new all-time high in November. But when quoted in Turkish lira, the top cryptocurrency kept on climbing in November and has never looked back.

The result? A shocking cryptocurrency price chart you simply have to see to believe. We’ll also explain the background behind the devastating downtrend in TRYUSD.

BTCTRY: Bitcoin Makes A Bullish Bet Against Struggling Currencies

All throughout the history of Bitcoin price action, after setting a higher high, the notoriously volatile cryptocurrency would blast off to a cycle climax. But the recent macro concerns around the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise rates put any bullish momentum on pause.

Related Reading | This Bitcoin Morning Star Could Brighten The Bullish Narrative In A Flash

Instead of new highs in BTCUSD, the top crypto asset by market cap has fallen by 38% or around $20,000 per coin. However, crypto assets don’t only trade against the dollar, much like BTC can trade against altcoins like ETH.

Bitcoin trading against the lira looks a lot different than the dollar | Source: BTCTRY on TradingView.com

Bitcoin can be quoted in the euro, yen, or in the case of the chart above, the Turkish lira. On the BTCTRY trading pair, after the all-time high was breached in early November, the bullish trend has yet to take a breather – let alone the steep correction seen in USD terms.

Behind The Turkish Lira Plunge, An Omen For The Dollar?

The flight to the dollar caused by the mere mention of rate hikes has decimated assets. In Turkey, the opposite is happening. Under president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s central bank has cut interest rates by a full percentage point five times since September, sending the nation’s currency into a free fall.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Falls Flat: Examining A Rare Bull Market Corrective Pattern

During this time frame, the lira has fallen 50% against the dollar. Inflation in the country has also increased by 21%. Central banks in Turkey have attempted to intervene several times without success, selling off the country’s reserve of USD.

The lira has been in free fall against USD | Source: TRYUSD on TradingView.com

In response to inflation concerns, Erdoğan has raised the minimum wage by 50%, which Marek Drimal at Société Générale claims “will fuel inflation pressures further, together with the cumulative impact of the lira’s weakness”.

Additional, unspecified measures are also promised. But will they work? The lira is an example of what happens when there are no more levers left to pull. The United States Federal Reserve has a lot more shock and awe left in its war chest, but even it is struggling to balance markets, inflation, and a currency meltdown.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com