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Bitcoin Price Flash Crashes 6% In Under 60 Minutes, What Happened?
Bitcoin price was trading in the green today, up about $1,500 at the high. The top cryptocurrency by market cap also made another attempt at $30,000 around mid-day.
Shortly thereafter, in the span of less than 60 minutes, BTCUSD flash crashed by more than 6%, leaving the marker bewildered. Here is a closer look at the sharp selloff and some potential reasons for the reset.
Bitcoin Price Bleeds 6% In 60 Minutes
Crypto market volatility is picking up and it’s doing so in a major way. Today alone, Bitcoin price was up by more than 6%, then saw the entire rally and then some wiped out in a nearly 7%, one hour long selloff.
Bulls who were gloating to start the day are now licking wounds and scratching their heads. Even bears aren’t sure what to think about today’s price action, it happened so quickly.
If recent lows at $27,000 don’t hold, today’s selloff could be the start of a second corrective wave down in BTCUSD. If the level does indeed hold, the move is more than likely the results of long positions in profit closing in succession, followed by stop losses being triggered who entered on the way up, wiping out open interest and resetting technical indicators.
What To Watch For: Shakeout Or Rejection?
The daily candle currently has a massive wick at the top and a decent-sized lower shadow, demonstrating the struggle between bulls and bears in today’s trading session.
Bitcoin price continues to find resistance at $30,000, and needs to press higher to convince the market that crypto winter is over. Rejection here could be disastrous for the top cryptocurrency by market cap. However, it is possible the move was merely a shakeout before continuation.
One thing is certain: this type of volatility should continue for the near term.
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This Highly Profitable Bitcoin Cross Has Just Formed Again
On-chain data shows that a Bitcoin cross that has proved quite profitable has once again formed for the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Realized Price Of Short-Term Holders Overtakes Long-Term Holders
As an analyst in a CryptoQuant post explained, the realized price of the 1 to 3 months holders has just exceeded that of the 6 to 12 months investors.
The “realized price” here refers to a metric derived from the “realized cap,” which is a capitalization model for Bitcoin that assumes a coin’s true value is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain rather than the current BTC price as the usual market cap says.
The realized price is obtained when the realized cap is divided by the total number of coins in circulation. Since the realized cap accounted for the prices at which the investors acquired their coins (their “cost basis”), the realized price represents the average acquisition price in the market.
This means that whenever the Bitcoin price dips below this metric, the average cryptocurrency investor holds assets at a loss. Similarly, a break above implies a transition towards profits for the average investor.
In the context of the current discussion, the realized price of three specific segments of the market is relevant; the holders who bought between 1 month and 3 months ago, 3 months and 6 months ago, and 6 months and 12 months ago.
The first two of these are parts of the “short-term holder” (STH) cohort, while the third one is part of the “long-term holder” (LTH) group. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price specifically for these segments of the market:
As shown in the above graph, an interesting pattern formed during the leadup to the 2021 bull run. First, the realized price of the 1-month to 3 months cohort exceeded that of the 6- 12 months group. Following this crossover, BTC saw some sharp uptrend, but it didn’t last long.
Then, as this price increase winded down, the 3- 6 months segment also crossed above this LTH cohort. These crossovers implied that fresh purchases were happening in the market as the rally built up. Since the prices were rising during this leadup, the STHs had to buy at higher and higher prices, which is why their realized price went up and eventually became higher than the LTHs’.
After these crossovers were completed, the BTC bull run ramped up. Recently, the first of these crossovers seem to be forming again, as the realized price of the 1-month 3 months group is now equal to that of the 6 months to 12 months band.
While it’s uncertain if the second crossover will also go and take shape now, Bitcoin could observe at least some bullish momentum from this initial cross alone (assuming that it’s not just a fake-out), just like it did back in 2020.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,800, up 1% in the last week.
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